slide the impacts of climate change to mekong delta realities and solutions

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO MEKONG DELTA: REALITIES AND SOLUTIONS LE QUANG TRI Research Institute for Climate change – Can Tho University MEKONG DELTA’S SCENARIOS Mekong delta is the largest agriculture and aquaculture area at Vietnam (2.4 million Hectares of agricultural area/ million Hectares of total) Supply 50% of Rice, 65% of aquatic and 75% of Fruit for the whole country Exporting million tons of Rice to the world in 2011 A vulnerable area because most people are living along the sea with the elevation under 10 meters (LECZ) Sea level rise (m) Losing Land (%) Relocated population (%) # 1.0 # 25 # 20 (3.5 mil.) # 2.0 # 50 # 75 (14 mil ) (Nhân, 1997) Considered one of the wetlands of Vietnam with flat terrain, the ground is low Very high biological diversity, sensitive in ecological characteristics (Tuan and Wyseure, 2007) A A Biên giới 3.00 VN-CPC 2.00 1.00 A-A Đồng Tháp Tiền Giang Sông Tiên Đồng Tháp Sông Hậu Cần Sóc Bac Tho Trăng Liêu 0.00 - 1.00 - 2.00 Không theo tỉ lệ - 12 - 15 m - 15 - 20 m Biển T.1 T.3 T.3 T.2 T.4 T.5 Dry season  T.6 T.7 T.8 T.9 T.10 T.11 T.12 Dry season Rainy season   Hè Thu Đông Xuân Đông Xuân Thu Đông Rau màu Rau màu Rau Màu Tôm - Lúa Lúa Cá Lúa cá Coastal areas Flooded areas Forecast figures for the climate change is simulated by ECHAM4 model with gas emission scenario A2 and the details using PRECIS model with high resolution Results from climate models, then regional hydrological simulation modeling ocean rotation is integrated into a hydrodynamic model, EIA 3D model, is helpful for preventing flooding at Mekong Delta Climate change forecast in the Mekong Delta Average maximum temperature in 1980s 2030s (anticipation) Average minimum temperature in 1980s 2030s (anticipation) Climate change at Mekong Delta The number of hot days per annum in 1980s 2030s (anticipation) Solutions and Adaptations to Climate Change 35 Mekong Delta Residents - living with flood Sống chung với lũ Biện pháp cơng trình •Xây đê bao; •Xây nhà sàn; •Khu dân cư vượt lũ; •Kênh lũ; •Rừng phịng hộ; •… •… Biện pháp phi cơng trình Nâng cấp hệ thống dự báo, cảnh báo thời tiết thiên tai •Đa dạng lịch thời vụ; •Thuyền y tế; •Nhà trẻ mùa lũ; •Dạy bơi cho trẻ; •Truyền thơng; •… 36 Response to Climate Change Reduction Biện pháp cơng trình Trồng lại rừng Tiết kiệm nước lượng Phát triển lượng tái tạo 3T (Tiết giảm, Tái sử dụng Tái chế) … Adaptation Biện pháp phi cơng trình Biện pháp cơng trình Nâng cao nhận thức Bảo vệ tồn trữ nước Tăng cường lực Giảm pháp đê/đập Điều chỉnh thời vụ/ canh tác Nâng nhà Quy hoạch sử dụng đất … Quan trắc dự báo thời tiết … BẠC LIÊU BẾN TRE AN GIANG CÀ MAU 39 41 • Replace the rice with dry plants to adapt & resist salinization Nuôi heo Biogas Hầm ủ Biogas contribute to reduction of greenhouse gas Nấu ăn Phát điện Bón cây, ni cá Burning in the rice field will… Increase: … air pollution … CO2 … loosing of rice straw … kill beneficial breeds in the soil … create fire hazards to the forest … Planting straw mushroom to increase farmers' income and reduce pollution Nature conservation in development Mutual impact Climate change Adaptation - Tác động - Tổn thương - Chính sách, chiến lược, phương pháp thích ứng - Thực hành tốt Reduction - CO2 emission - Avoid deforestation Biodiversity Nguyễn Hữu Ninh, 2011 Level Strategy response to Climate Change • Cải thiện • Cơng trình • Thích ứng • Chiến lược • Điều chỉnh • Giảm nhẹ • Thơng tin • Giáo dục • Chính sách Time MRD need for sustainable development on the basis of background security tower Sustainable Development Security society An ninh Security Food lương thực Security Water Sources MD residents know how to adapt to the changing nature • Need to raise awareness for the people and the local authorities on climate change •There must be close cooperation between scientists - decision makers - governments and nongovernmental organizations - the locals to build a strategy and action plan for responding and adapting with climate change Response to climate change … … for sustainable life of us Thank you for your attention 49 ... Speculation in the 2030s: about 1.5 to 2.0% of the area being flooded by rising sea levels 16 The trend of Climate and other disasters change at Mekong Delta over the next decades Weather factors Source:... Floods" To "Living with Climate Change" 24 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE • The abnormal weather phenomena is increasing more and more frequent • The natural disasters and severe weather conditions... Committee on Climate Change has indicated that Mekong Delta in Vietnam is one of three deltas affected the most by global climate change (IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007) The impact of climate change