Intrinsic value estimation for petro viet nam ca mau fertilizer JSC

CONTENT PREEACE Introduction Chapter 1: Literature Review 1.1 Deíinitions 1.1.1 Stock Market 1.1.2 stock 1.1.3 Valuation 1.1.4 Intrinsic value 1.1.5 Valuation Methods 10 1.2 Company analysis .21 1.2.1 Approach .21 1.2.2 Macroeconomic analysis .22 1.2.3 Industry Analysis 23 1.2.4 Einancial Statement Analysis 23 Chapter 2: Analysis of DCM Períormance 29 2.1 Company Overview 29 2.1.1 Introduction 29 2.1.2 History of company 30 2.1.3 Company Position in Fertilizer Sector in Vietnam 32 2.2 Macroeconomic Analysis .36 2.2.1 Global economic Outlook 36 2.2.2 Domestic economic Outlook 2018 47 2.3 Industry Analysis 48 2.4 Einancial Statement Analysis and Business Períormance Outcome .54 2.4.1 Revenue 54 2.4.2 The growth momentum 56 2.4.3 Expenses 61 2.4.3.1 Inventory management situation 63 2.4.3.2 Accounts payable administration situation 64 2.4.5 Proíitability 67 2.5 Investment Risk 75 2.6 Dupont analysis 76 2.7 SWOT Analysis 79 2.7.1 Strengths 79 2.7.2 Opportunities 79 2.7.3 Weaknesses .79 2.7.4 Threats 79 Chapter 3: Valuation and Recommendations .81 3.1 Valuation .81 3.2 Assumption 81 3.2.1 Valuation by ECEE 83 3.2.2 Value by P/E metric 84 3.3 Recommendation 85 3.4 Limitations and room for íurther research 86 REEERENCES 94 LIST OF TABLES Figure 1.1: Revenue scale of the largest fertilizer companies in Vietnam 34 Figure 1.2: Proíit scale of the largest fertilizer íirms in Vietnam Figure 1.3: Growth of world gross product 35 36 Figure 1.4: Contributions to change in world gross product growth by country, 2017 38 Table 1.2: Growth of world output, 2015-2019 39 Figure 1.5: Contributions to change in world gross product growth by component, 2017 40 Table 1.3: Inílation 2015-2019 42 Figure 1.6: Growth of world trade and world gross product 43 Figure 1.7: Contribution to global merchandise import volume growth by region 45 Figure 1.8: Contribution to global merchandise export volume growth by region 45 Figure 2.1: Structure of fertilizer import market in 2017 49 Table 2.1: Compare the size and characteristics of the urea business in Vietnam 51 Figure 2.2: Supply and demand of urea fertilizer in Vietnam 2009-2017 52 Figure 2.3: Imports of urea by country 2016-2017 53 Figure 2.4: Revenue scale and revenue growth 2012-2017 54 Table 2.2: Market share of CaMau urea in major markets of DCM 56 Figure 2.5: Expected sales revenue distribution 56 Figure 2.6: Net revenue scale and net revenue growth for 2012-2017 57 Figure 2.7: Development and forecasting the price of Urea of CaMau and the world 58 Figure 2.8: Output projection and fertilizer consumption of DCM 60 Figure 2.9: Estimated DCM revenue for 2017-2022 61 Figure 2.10: Inventory by quarter and number of days in stock 62 Figure 2.11: Inventory and inventory days of fertilizer enterprises 63 Figure 2.12: Quarterly payables and number of days paid 64 Figure 2.13: Payables and the number of days payable to the fertilizer businesses 65 Figure 2.14: Asset structure 2012-2017 66 Figure 2.15: Capital structure 2012-2017 66 Figure 2.16: Gross proíĩt margin of large fertilizer companies Figure 2.17: Gross proíĩt margin in each segment Figure 2.18: DCM’s proíitability ratios 68 69 71 Figure 2.19: Revenue scale of the largest fertilizer companies in Vietnam 72 Figure 2.20: Accounts receivable by quarter 2015-2017 73 Figure 2.21: Accounts payable by quarter 2015-2017 74 DDM DCF FCFF EPS ppp WGP OPEC NAFTA WTO ADO CNFIA AEC BREXIT DCM LIST OF ACRONYMS Dividend Discount Model Discount Cash Flow Free Cash Flow to Firm Eaming Per Share Purchasing Power Parties World Gross Product Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries North American Free Trade Agreement Word Trade Organization Asian Development Outlook China Nitrogen Fertilizer Association ASEAN Community BRITAIN AND EXIT DAM CA MAU PREPACE This dissertation would never have been possible without the consistent support and assistance of people whom I approached and worked during the various stages of writing this report Firstly, I would like to express my heartfelt appreciation to my academic supervisor Ms Pham My Hang Phuong, a lecturer at Academy of Policy and Development, who dedicates herself to helping me to achieve my target with a lot of valuable advice, encouragements and wise orientations Additionally, I am also thankful to other teachers in I.S.E.F to facilitate leaming for me during four consecutive years at my university They offered useful subjects relating to my dissertation and wealth knowledge Thus, this has brought to me a massive number of useful skills so as to complete my dissertation Introduction In the context of modem economy, along with the innovation of market economy and íĩerce competition among economic sectors, companies are facing many complicated issues such as continuous volatility the market and the íierce competition between domestic and íồreign companies To be able to self-affirm and to execute business effectively, it is important to know the financial status of your business as it is directly related to business activities of the business Firm valuation will help enterprises to see clearly the íĩnancial status and results of business activities, as well as to identify fully and accurately the causes and effects of the impacts and importantly the company can identify intrinsic value of company’s stock By exploiting information and íĩgures in the íinancial statement, it can assess the potential and effectiveness of business production as well as risks and prospects in the future of enterprises Understanding the íinancial situation, size, structure of assets - Capital, production and business efficiency as well as other issues of demand, solvency or the level of security of Capital for production activities The level of íĩnancial independence of the company will help managers, interested parties make the right investment and business decisions, correct and optimal Corporate valuation is of great importance for businesses Valuation methods can help companies overcome business risks and find the appropriate Solutions to grow their business Recognizing the urgency of this problem, I chose the topic of "Intrinsic value estimation for Petro Viet Nam Ca Mau Fertilizer JSC" > Research objective Research Question: How we identify the fair value of DCM’s stock? General Objective: Using Literature Review and applying it to find out the intrinsic value of DCM’s stock Speciíic Objective: ■ Analyzing business performance of DCM and forecasting the potentials of DCM in five consecutive years (2018-2022) ■ Using valuation methods to determine the intrinsic value of DCM’s stock and comparing this value with the market price so as to whether DCM has been overvalued or undervalued ■ Relying on the valuation outcome and then recommending investors whether they should invest in this stock or not Research Object ■ Petro Viet Nam Ca Mau Fertilizer Joint Stock Company (DCM) Research Scope ■ Time limited: 2011-2017 ■ Venue limited: VietNam Research Methods: ■ Literature Review ■ Data analysis Research Structure My dissertation will be separated into chapters: • Chapter 1: Literature Review • Chapter 2: Analysis of DCM períồrmance • Chapter 3: Valuation and Recommendations Chapter 1: Literature Review 1.1 Dinitions 1.1.1 Stock Market • The stock market refers to the collection of markets and exchanges where the issuing and trading of equities or stocks of publicly held companies, bonds, and other classes of securities take place This trade is either through formal exchanges or over-the-counter (OTC) marketplaces Also known as the equity market, the stock market is one of the most vital components of a free-market economy It provides companies with access to Capital in exchange for giving investors a slice of ownership (Investopedia.com) 1.1.2 stock • A stock is a type of security that signiíĩes ownership in a Corporation and represents a claim on part of the Corporation’s assets and eamings • There are two main types of stock: common and preferred Common stock usually entitles the owner to vote at shareholders' meetings and to receive dividends Preferred stock generally does not have voting rights, but has a higher claim on assets and eamings than the common shares For example, owners of preferred stock receive dividends before common shareholders and have priority in the event that a company goes bankrupt and is liquidated Also known as -sharesll or -equityll (Investopedia.com) 1.1.3 Valuation • Valuation is the process of determining the current worth of an asset or a company; there are many techniques used to determine value An analyst placing a value on a company looks at the company's management, the composition of its Capital structure, the prospect of future eamings and market value of assets (Investopedia.com) 1.1.4 Intrinsic value • Intrinsic value is the perceived or calculated value of a company, including tangible and intangible factors, using íundamental analysis Also called the true value, the intrinsic value may or may not be the same as the current market value Additionally, intrinsic value is also used in options pricing to indicate the amount that an option is "in the money." • Intrinsic value can be calculated by value investors using íìmdamental analysis to look at both qualitative (business model, govemance, and target market factors) and quantitative (ratios and íĩnancial statement analysis) aspects of a business This calculated value is then compared to the market value to determine whether the business or asset is over- or undervalued (Investopedia.com) 1.1.5 Valuation Methods s When deciding which valuation method to use to value a stock for the first time, there are a number of valuation techniques available to investors s Valuation methods typically fall into two main categories: ■ Absolute valuation models attempt to find the intrinsic or "true" value of an investment based only on fundamentals Looking at fundamentals simply mean you would only focus on such things as dividends, cash flow, and the growth rate for a single company, and not worry about any other companies Valuation models that fall into this category include the dividend discount model, discounted cash flow model, residual income models, and asset-based models ■ Relative valuation models, in contrast to absolute valuation, operate by comparing the company in question to other similar companies These methods involve calculating multiples and ratios, such as the price-to-eamings multiple, and comparing them to the multiples of similar companies For example, if the P/E of a company is lower than the P/E multiple of a comparable company, the original company might be considered undervalued Typically, the relative valuation model is a lot easier and quicker to calculate than the absolute valuation methods, which is why many investors and analysts begin their analysis with this method (The Basic Elements of Stock Value) • Dividend Discount Model (DDM) • The dividend discount model (DDM) is one of the most basic of the absolute valuation models The dividend model calculates the "true" value of a firm based on the dividends the company pays its shareholders The justification for using dividends to value a company is that dividends represent the actual cash 2.4.199 Chapter 3: Valuation and Recommendations 3.1 Valuation 2.4.200 I apply the free cash flow method of the business (FCFF) to determine the intrinsic value of DCM shares I argue that the FCFF method is most appropriate because DCM's Capital structure is still changing, and DCM's dividend policy is still unstable as the company is in a growth phase 3.1.1 Assumption 2.4.201 RF (Riskfree rate) 2.4.203 Long-term growth 2.4.205 Tax rate 2.4.207 2.4.208 Average daily return 2.4.210 Annual return (Rm) 2.4.212 Var Rm 2.4.214 Ri) 2.4.216 2.4.218 2.4.219 2.4.220 2.4.221 E/(E+D) 2.4.223 D/(E+D) 2.4.225 2.4.226 Kd 2.4.228 WACC 2.4.202 5.38% 2.4.204 1% 2.4.206 20% 2.4.209 % 2.4.211 0.1111672 2.4.213 17 Cov(Rm, 2.4.215 05 Beta 2.4.217 0.0001340 32.31% 8.9711E0.67 |ỉ = Cov( Rm,Ri)/Var(Rm) CAMP: Ke = Rp + p*(Rm - Rị.) = 23.42% 2.4.222 62.62% 2.4.224 37.38% Ke 23.42% 2.4.227 7% 2.4.229 16.8% 2.4.230 2.4.231 Risk-free rate: I use the risk-free rate as the yield of 20-year • 2.4.232 govemment bonds in Vietnam 2.4.233 Long-term growth rate: projected to reach 1% / year, very low compared with the potential of enterprises when the growth rate predicted by 2020 of the fertilizer industry in the world and Vietnam reached 1.9% and 3% per year However, I prefer to be cautious in the context of fertilizer business which is a potential risk 2.4.234 Cost of debt: refers to the effective rate a company pays on its current debt In most cases, this refers to the after-tax cost of debt, but it also means the companỳs cost of debt beíồre taking taxes into account The difference in cost of debt beíồre and after taxes lies in the fact that interest expenses are deductible However, in this case I use the interest rate of longterm borrowings of BIDV bank for almost íĩrms, at 7% 2.4.235 Cost of equity: it was calculated using CAPM model I use 20 year Viet Nam govemment bond yield of 5.38% as the risk-free rate Moreover, a market retum of 32.31% is applied based on the statistics in the stock market To calculate Beta, linear regression of DCM’s stock price daily retum was run against the VNINDEX retum in the period of 23/05/2017 to 25/05/2018 3.1.2 Valuation by FCFF 2.4.236 2.4.237 Y 2.4.238 2.4.239 2.4.240 2.4.2412.4.242 2.4.243 2.4.244 2.4.245 2.4.246 ear 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020 2021F 2022F Terminal 2.4.256 2.4.248 2.4.249 2.4.251 2.4.253 2.4.254 2.4.247 N 2.4.250 2.4.252 2.4.255 70 62 70 85 88 et income 640 757 912 32.4.264 2.4.266 2.4.257 D4 2.4.2580 2.4.259 2.4.2602.4.261 2.4.262 2.4.263 2.4.265 epreciation 1,22 1,2 1,28 1,228 1,284 1,287 1,303 1,318 2.4.276 2.4.267 C 2.4.268 2.4.269 2.4.271 2.4.273 2.4.274 2.4.270 2.4.272 2.4.275 apital 14 26 22 10 13 74 494 127 Expenditure 6 2.4.286 2.4.277 I 2.4.278 2.4.279 2.4.280 2.4.281 2.4.283 2.4.284 2.4.285 nc in NC 0.3 0.8 0.9 2.4.282 1.23 1.64 2.74 3.86 wc 0.55 2.4.296 2.4.287 I 2.4.288 2.4.289 2.4.290 2.4.291 2.4.292 2.4.293 2.4.294 2.4.295 nterest*(l531.2 346.4 162 231 172 116 75 46 tax rate %) 2.4.297 F 2.4.298 2.4.299 2.4.300 2.4.302 CFF 2,32 1,9 2,01 12,846 2.4.308 2.4.303 W 2.4.304 2.4.305 2.4.306 2.4.301 Total PV = 12,771 ACC 16.8 16.8 16.8 2.4.314 2.4.309 P 2.4.310 2.4.311 2.4.312 V 1,98 1,4 9,32 2.4.317 2.4.315 V alue of Equity (EV) 2.4.316 8,035 2.4.318 N 2.4.319 529.4 umber of shares outstanding 86 3.1.3 Value by P/E metric 2.4.321 T arget Price 2.4.324 2.4.322 15,178 87 3.1.3 Value by P/E metric 2.4.325 Eorecast target price by multiple valuation 2.4.326 2.4.327 Name 2.4.332 2.4.328 Country 2.4.333 2.4.334 2.4.342 2.4.341 2.4.343 DCM VN 2.4.350 2.4.349 2.4.351 DPM VN 2.4.356 2.4.357 2.4.358 2.4.359 BEC VN 2.4.364 E 2.4.365 China XLX 2.4.366 oreign Fertilizer Ltd China companies 2.4.371 2.4.372 Gujarat 2.4.374 Narmada Valley India Fertilizers & Chemicals 2.4.373 Ltd 2.4.340 Domestic companies 2.4.380 2.4.329 Marke 2.4.330 Peer 2.4.331 t group 2017 2017E Capitalization 2.4.335 2.4.336 2.4.337 2.4.338 2.4.339 ROE ROA P/E 2.4.344 5,665 2.4.345 2.4.346 2.4.347 B 10.60% 4.70% 9.2 2.4.352 6,692 2.4.353 2.4.354 2.4.355 B 8% 6% 10.1 2.4.360 1,761 2.4.361 2.4.362 2.4.363 B 32% 10% 5.4 2.4.367 3,572 2.4.368 2.4.369 2.4.370 B 11.48% 3.28% 8.52 2.4.375 B 2.4.381 72.262 2.4.376 17.80% 2.4.382 2.4.383 2.4.384 11.48% Price-to-earning Valuation 2.4.377 11.11% 2.4.378 9.09 2.4.385 6.00% 2.4.386 9.09 2.4.379 edian M 2.4.388 Median P/E 2.4.389 9.09 2.4.390 Industry Growth 2.4.391 3% 2.4.392 Forward EPS 2.4.394 Intrinsic Value per Share 2.4.387 2.4.393 1,074 2.4.395 10,056 88 3.2 Recommendation 2.4.396 With the assumption that DCM will continue to receive PVN subsidy for input gas prices in 2019-2023, I determine DCM DCF's intrinsic value of VND15,178 per share when I value DCM by using FCFF method and that of VND 10,056 per share as I use multiple valuation (P/E metric) I recommend BUY for DCM In the case that PVN does not continue to subsidize input gas for DCM in the period 2019-2023, it is quite risky for investors to hold DCM shares in medium to long term 2.4.397 J To investors: 2.4.398 Although I cannot deny the potential of fertilizer industry íồrecast in the Corning years, there are still a number of inaccurate calculating techniques in analyzing the DCM stock of mine Additionally, risks from divesting Capital of PVN are also seriously jeopardizing DCM’s business activities In fact, due to the huge shortage of urea fertilizer supply in the domestic market, so I reaffirm once again my position that “DCM STOCKIS A WORTH INVESTMENT” 2.4.399 “BUY RECOMMENDATION” 2.4.400 J ToDCM: 2.4.401 In order to increase DCM’s profít, I would argue that DCM should continue to deeply penetrate into Combodia market as well as other potential markets by providing high-quality Products to exploit optimal proíĩt 2.4.402 Moreover, if the edited tax policy is going through, DCM ought to take an advantage to invest in more plants have high operating capacity so as to meet the needs of domestic fertilizer market and receive tax rìrnd Simultaneously, DCM should emphasize its standing in the fertilizer market by expanding the fertilizer distribution System and create a reliable brand to customers, or even increase to export those Products to developed countries In addition, DCM need to control effectively operating cost and corporate cost when NPK íactory Corning into operation Importantly, because of exchange rate risk of long-term borrowings of DCM beíồre 2015 when DCM built the Urea Plant, DCM should hedge risk by increasing quickly a large amount of money in paying out Principal so as to mitigate íĩnancial expenses Nevertheless, DCM does not use short-term debt so 89 2.4.403 the liquidity is relatively good Hence, DCM has the solvency risk very low despite the highest lending of debts compared to the peers in the sector 3.3 Limitations and room for íurther research 2.4.404 In fact, I believe that there are quite a lot of limitations in my research In the initial stage when I value a company, I have just approached some kinds of basic information in the financial statements, thereíồre, I cannot ensure that all of ílgures provided in this statement are completely precise In this case, this could be cause the distortions in those ílgures and even the exaggerations for the proílts or losses of the company However, I would convince that my research will provide sufficient valuation for investors if no aíồrementioned ílgure distortions 2.4.405 In addition to this, I may assure that my calculation as well as anticipation for growth trends is relatively precise, however, people still should carefully consider how effective this research is beíồre taking a risk and investing in any stock in the market In the íuture, if I have an opportunity to go further studies, I will leam more about ílnancial analysis and business valuation skills in order to minimize limitations and provide a proíessional firm valuation for potential investors 90 2.4.406 2.4.407 Pr 2.4.416 oíĩtability 2.4.425 Gr ratios oss proíĩt margin 2.4.434 EB ITDA/Net revenue 2.4.443 EB IT/Net revenue 2.4.452 R OS 2.4.461 RO E 2.4.470 R OA 2.4.479 Ea mings per share (basic) Ea 2.4.488 mings per share (EPS 2.4.497 Eff iciency 2.4.506 ratios (Times)Re ceivables tumover 2.4.515 Inv entory tumover 2.4.524 Pa yables tumover 2.4.533 Fix ed asset tumover 2.4.542 Tot al asset 2.4.551 tumover % % 29 29 2.4.408 2.4.409 2.4.410 2.4.411 2.4.412 2.4.413 2.4.414 2.4.415 2015 2.4.417 2016 2.4.418 2017E 2.4.419 2018E2.4.420 2019E 2.4.421 2020E 2.4.422 2021E 2.4.423 2022 2.4.424 2.4.426 2.4.427 2.4.428 2.4.429 2.4.430 2.4.431 2.4.432 2.4.433 29.20 26.80 23.90 25.30 22.20 20.90 19.80 19.30% 2.4.435 2.4.436 2.4.437 2.4.438 2.4.439 2.4.440 2.4.441 2.4.442 43 41.90 34.70 33.90 28.40 25.30 22.80 20.90% % 2.4.446 % % 2.4.444% 2.4.445 2.4.448 % 2.4.449 % 2.4.450 2.4.451 2.4.447 20.1 16 12.40 11.30 10.10 8.70 7.60 14% % % 2.4.455 2.4.4532.4.454 2.4.456 % 2.4.457 % 2.4.458 % 2.4.459% 2.4.460 12.7 12.7% 11.20 11.40 10.10 10.10 9.60 2.4.469 9.30 2.4.462 2.4.463 2.4.464 2.4.465 2.4.466 2.4.467 2.4.468 15.70 10.60 10.60 2.4.474 11.80 2.4.47512.20 2.4.476 13.30 13.20 13% 2.4.471 2.4.472 2.4.473 2.4.477 2.4.478 4.60 4.70% 5.50% 2.4.4846.40% 7.60% 8.10 8.50 2.4.480 2.4.481 2.4.4822.4.483 2.4.485 2.4.4862.4.487 1,3 1,1 1,2 1,6 1,6 1,329 1,431 1,722 06 2.4.48971 2.4.49008 2.4.491 2.4.49468 2.4.495 1,3 1,0 1,0 2.4.492 2.4.493 1,4 1,4 2.4.496 30 62 1,169 1,258 12 67 1,515 2.4.498 2.4.499 2.4.500 2.4.501 2.4.502 2.4.503 2.4.5042.4.505 2.4.507 2.4.516 2.4.525 2.4.526 2.4.534 2.4.543 2.4.508 2.4.517 2.4.518 2.4.527 23 2.4.535 2.4.544 2.4.509 2.4.510 2.4.519 31 2.4.528 25 2.4.536 2.4.537 2.4.545 2.4.546 91 0.5 2.4.520 41 2.4.529 25 0.9 0.5 2.4.511 2.4.512 2.4.513 2.4.514 0.7 0 2.4.521 2.4.522 2.4.523 41 46 51 56 2.4.530 2.4.531 2.4.532 25 25 25 25 2.4.538 2.4.539 2.4.540 2.4.541 1.6 2.4.547 2.4.549 2.4.550 2.4.548 0 0.8 2.4.553 2.4.554 2.4.555 2.4.556 2.4.557 2.4.558 2.4.5592.4.560 2.4.552 Li quidity 2.4.561 ratiosCu 2.4.562 2.4.563 2.4.564 2.4.565 2.4.566 2.4.567 2.4.568 2.4.569 rrent ratio 1.8 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4.575 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.0 2.4.570 Qu 2.4.571 2.4.572 2.4.573 2.4.574 2.4.576 2.4.577 2.4.578 ick ratio 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.4.584 1.92 1.9 2.2 2.4.587 2.5 2.4.579 Ca 2.4.580 2.4.581 2.4.582 2.4.583 2.4.585 2.4.586 sh ratio 1.62.4.589 1.2 2.262.4.596 2.4.590 1.52.4.591 1.6 2.4.592 1.65 2.4.593 1.62.4.5941.92.4.595 2.4.588 Le verage ratiosDe 2.4.597 2.4.598 2.4.599 2.4.600 2.4.601 2.4.602 2.4.603 2.4.604 2.4.605 bt to equity Lia 38.90 2.4.608 43.40 42.20 33.60 36.20 37.70 38.40 2.4.614 37.80 2.4.606 2.4.607 2.4.609 2.4.610 2.4.611 2.4.612 2.4.613 bilities to 79.40 70% 58.70 49.10 37.80 21.60 15.70 8.50% assets 2.4.615 Lia 2.4.616 2.4.617 2.4.619 2.4.620 2.4.621 2.4.622 2.4.623 2.4.618 bilities2.4.624 to 184.60 87.80 64.30 33.80 23.90 12.50% 155.20% 119.40% equity % % % % % 92 2.4.625 Unỉt: Bỉllỉon Dong 2.4.626 BALAN 2.4.627 2.4.628 2.4.629 2.4.630 2.4.631 2.4.632 2.4.633 2.4.634 CE SHEET Assets 2015 2.4.636 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2.4.635 2.4.637 Current 2.4.638 2.4.639 2.4.640 2.4.641 2.4.642 2.4.643 2.4.644 2.4.645 assets 4.43 4.03 4.91 4.61 2.4.651 5.22 5.95 7.34 8.58 2.4.646 Cash & 2.4.647 2.4.648 2.4.649 2.4.650 2.4.652 2.4.653 2.4.654 Cash 1.21 81 1.89 1.41 1.757 2.17 3.30 4.26 equivalents Short5 2.4.6564 2.4.655 2.4.6576 2.4.6583 2.4.659 2.4.6608 2.4.6616 2.4.6623 2.4.663 term 2.70 2.30 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 investments 0 0 0 2.4.664 Account 2.4.665 2.4.666 2.4.667 2.4.668 2.4.670 2.4.671 2.4.672 2.4.669 s receivable 48 50 52 75 83 91 648 short-term 2.4.673 Inventor 2.4.674 2.4.675 2.4.676 2.4.677 2.4.678 2.4.679 2.4.6804 2.4.681 ies 39 372.4.684 84 1.27 2.4.682 Other 2.4.683 2.4.685 37 2.4.686 52 2.4.687658 2.4.688 2.4.6891.03 2.4.690 current assets Long4 36 51 66 75 2.4.691 2.4.692 2.4.693 2.4.694 2.4.695 2.4.696 2.4.697 2.4.698 2.4.699 term assets Fixed 10.0 8.93 7.61 6.67 5.94 4.74 3.59 2.43 2.4.700 2.4.701 2.4.702 2.4.703 2.4.704 2.4.705 2.4.706 2.4.707 2.4.708 assets (tangible) 9.78 2.4.7118.77 7.57 6.51 5.78 4.59 3.44 2.27 2.4.709 Subsidia 2.4.710 2.4.712 2.4.713 2.4.714 2.4.715 2.4.716 2.4.717 ries investment Fixed 2.4.718 2.4.719 2.4.720 2.4.721 2.4.722 2.4.723 2.4.724 2.4.725 2.4.726 assets 6 32 37 55 62 (intangible) Other 2.4.727 2.4.728 2.4.729 2.4.731 2.4.733 2.4.735 2.4.730 2.4.732 2.4.734 long-term 20 10 12 108 81 assets 2.4.737 2.4.738 42.4.742 2.4.736 Total 2.4.73902.4.740 2.4.741 2.4.743 2.4.744 assets 14.4 2.4.746 12.967 12.5 11.285 11.173 10.695 10.937 11.024 2.4.745 Liabiliti es 2.4.747 Short2.4.748 2.4.749 2.4.750 2.4.751 2.4.752 2.4.753 2.4.754 2.4.755 term 1.31 1.35 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 borrowings 9 2 2 2 2.4.756 Short2.4.757 2.4.758 2.4.759 2.4.760 2.4.761 2.4.762 2.4.763 2.4.764 term accounts 29 68 43 44 564 67 78 80 2.4.765 Other 2.4.766 2.4.767 2.4.768 2.4.769 2.4.770 2.4.771 2.4.772 2.4.773 short-term 2.42 2.53 2.59 2.12 2.37 2.58 2.76 2.85 accounts payable 2.4.774 Current 2.4.7756 2.4.7769 2.4.7773 2.4.7786 2.4.7791 2.4.7801 2.4.7816 2.4.782 liabilities 4.04 4.58 4.09 3.62 4.00 4.31 4.60 2.4.783 Long2.4.784 2.4.785 2.4.786 2.4.787 2.4.788 2.4.789 2.4.790 4.72 2.4.791 term 2.4.792 5.75 4.53 3.67 2.77 2.11 1.15 85 47 borrowings 2 93 2.4.793 Other long-term accounts payable 2.4.802 Longterm accounts payable 2.4.811 Liabiliti es 2.4.820 Owner' s equity 2.4.822 Owner's Capital contribution 2.4.831 Retaine d2.4.840 eamings Other funds 2.4.849 Minorit y's interest Owner' 2.4.858 s equity 2.4.867 Total owner's equity 2.4.876 and liabilities 2.4.794 2.4.798 2.4.800 2.4.801 2.4.795 2.4.796 2.4.797 2.4.799 11 12 14 43 97 77 112 2.4.803 2.4.804 2.4.805 2.4.8063 2.4.807 2.4.8082 2.4.809 2.4.810 5.82 4.58 3.77 2.85 2.22 1.26 98 61 2.4.8121 2.4.8131 2.4.8140 2.4.8155 2.4.8168 2.4.8170 2.4.8181 2.4.819 9.86 2.4.821 9.16 7.86 6.47 6.22 5.58 5.5 5.33 2.4.823 2.4.824 2.4.825 2.4.826 2.4.827 2.4.828 2.4.829 2.4.830 5.29 5.29 5.29 5.29 5.29 5.29 5.2 5.29 2.4.832 2.4.833 2.4.834 2.4.835 2.4.836 2.4.837 2.4.838 2.4.839 54 36 596 738 92 1.19 1.4 2.4.841 2.4.842 2.4.843 2.4.844 2.4.845 2.4.846 2.4.847 1.82 2.4.848 37 2.4.851 16 2.4.852239 2.4.853 28 2.4.854 35 2.4.855353 2.4.856 40 2.4.85743 2.4.850 - 2.4.8592.4.8602.4.8612.4.8622.4.8632.4.8642.4.8652.4.866 6.23 5.85 6.15 2.4.871 6.31 2.4.8726.57 2.4.873 6.84 2.4.8747.1 2.4.875 7.55 2.4.868 2.4.869 2.4.870 14.4 12.9 12.5 11.285 11.173 10.695 10.937 11.024 83 67 26 94 2.4.877 Unỉt: Bỉllỉon Dong 2.4.878 IVICO 2.4.879 2.4.880 2.4.881 2.4.882 2.4.883 2.4.884 2.4.885 VIE 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E STATEMENT 2.4.887 Net 2.4.888 2.4.889 2.4.8902.4.891 2.4.892 2.4.8932.4.894 revenue 5.58 4.91 5.74 6.176 7.50 8.4 9.193 2.4.896 Cost of 2.4.897 2.4.898 2.4.8992.4.900 2.4.901 2.4.9022.4.903 goods 3.95 3.59 4.37 5.83 6.7 7.370 2.4.905sold Gross 2.4.906 2.4.907 2.4.908 4.612 2.4.9092.4.910 2.4.9112.4.912 proíit 1.63 1.37 2.4.918 1.56 2.4.919 1.667 2.4.920 1.7 2.4.921 1.822 2.4.914 Gross 2.4.915 2.4.9161.31 2.4.917 proíit margin Selling 29 27% 24% 25% 22% 21% 20% 2.4.923 expenses & 2.4.924 2.4.925 2.4.926 2.4.927 2.4.929 50 53 66 69 2.4.928 91 2.4.930 general and administration 1 818 1.026 2.4.932 EBITD 2.4.933 2.4.934 2.4.9352.4.936 2.4.937 2.4.9382.4.939 A 2.39 2.05 1.99 2.095 2.4.946 2.13 2.1 2.099 2.4.941 Deprecia 2.4.942 2.4.943 2.4.9442.4.945 2.4.9472.4.948 tion 1.27 1.27 1.284 1.2 1.303 2.4.951 2.4.952 1.28 2.4.953 1.228 2.4.954 2.4.955 2.4.956 2.4.957 2.4.950 EBIT 1.27 78 71 86 85 2.4.959 Financia 2.4.960 2.4.961 2.4.962 2.4.963 2.4.964850 2.4.965 2.4.966796 l2.4.968 revenue 22 28 16 17 19 Financia 2.4.969 2.4.970 2.4.971 2.4.972 2.4.973174 2.4.974 2.4.975 241 l2.4.977 expenses Other 2.4.978 66 2.4.979 43 2.4.98020 2.4.98128 2.4.982215 2.4.983 14 2.4.984 94 proíit - 2.4.987 - 2.4.989 - 2.4.991 - 2.4.993 2.4.986 Proíit 2.4.988 2.4.990 2.4.992 beíore 809 2.4.100190 2.4.1002943 2.4.995tax Corporat 2.4.996 68 2.4.997 63 2.4.99867 2.4.99975 2.4.1000 e2.4.1004 income tax Welfare 2.4.1005 2.4.100633 2.4.100738 2.4.100849 2.4.100949 54 2.4.1011 57 2.4.1010 and bonus 10 74 77 85 91 106 fund 2.4.1013 Minority 2.4.1014 2.4.1015 2.4.1016 2.4.1017 2.4.1018 2.4.1019 2.4.1020 's interest 4 4 2.4.1022 Proíit after tax 2.4.1023 2.4.1024 2.4.1025 2.4.1026 2.4.1028 belonging to the 70 62 64 70 2.4.1027 85 2.4.1029 shareholder of the 0 757 883 parent company 2.4.1031 Dividen 2.4.1032 2.4.1033 2.4.1034 2.4.1035 2.4.1036 2.4.1037 2.4.1038 2.4.1040 Retained 2.4.1041 2.4.1042 2.4.1043 2.4.1044 2.4.1045 2.4.1046 2.4.1047 2.4.1049 eamings 28 69 86 14 190 27 300 95 2.4.886 2022E 2.4.895 9.875 2.4.904 7.970 2.4.913 1.904 2.4.922 19% 2.4.931 1.154 2.4.940 2.069 2.4.949 1.318 2.4.958 2.4.967751 2.4.976301 2.4.985 57 2.4.994 995 2.4.1003 2.4.101280 110 2.4.1021 2.4.1030 912 2.4.1039 2.4.1048 325 2.4.1050 Unỉt: Bỉllỉon Dong 2.4.1051 CASHFLOW INDIRECT 2.4.1058 Profit before tax 2.4.1065 Adjustments for: 2.4.1072 Depreciation 2.4.1079 Loss/profit from asset liquidation 2.4.1086 Loss/(profit) from other investment activities 2.4.1093 Operating profit before changes in working Capital 2.4.1100 (Increase)/decrease in receivables 2.4.1107 (Increase)/decrease in inventories 2.4.1114 Increase/(decrease) in other shortterm assets 2.4.1121 (Increase)/decrease in payables 2.4.1128 Increase/(decrease) in other shortterm payables(Increase)/decrease in working 2.4.1135 Capital 2.4.1142 Other receipts from operating activities 2.4.1149 Other payments for operating activities 2.4.1156 Adjustment for cash flow 2.4.1163 CFO 2.4.1170 Payment for fixed assets and fixed asset investment Loss/profit from asset liquidation 2.4.1177 2.4.1184 Dividends, interest and proíĩt received 2.4.1191 Increase/(Decrease) in short-term íinancial investment Increase/(Decrease) in investing in 2.4.1198 other 2.4.1205 CFI 2.4.1212 Increase/(Decrease) in short-term borrowings 2.4.1219 Increase/(Decrease) in long-term 2.4.1226 borrowings 2.4.1052 2.4.1053 2.4.1054 2.4.1055 2.4.1056 2.4.1057 2017 2.4.1059 2018F2.4.10602019F 2.4.1061 2020F 2021F 2022F 2.4.1062 2.4.1063 2.4.1064 64 8862.4.1070 9152.4.10 2.4.1066 70 2.4.1067 76 2.4.10688542.4.1069 2.4.1073 2.4.1074 2.4.1075 2.4.1076 2.4.1077 2.4.1078 1.287 2.4.1084 1.303 2.4.1085 1.318 2.4.10801.28 2.4.10811.2 2.4.10821.28 2.4.1083 2.4.1087 - 2.4.1088 - 2.4.1089 - 2.4.1090 - 2.4.1091 - 2.4.1092 - 2.4.1097 - 2.4.1098 - 2.4.1099 2.4.1094 2.4.1095 2.4.1096 1.92 1.9 2.04 2.140 2.189 2.233 35 2.4.1101 2.4.1102 2.4.1103 2.4.1104 2.4.1105 2.4.1106 -24 -102 -83 2.4.1108 2.4.1109 2.4.1110 2.4.1111 2.4.1112 2.4.1113-82 2.4.1116-190 2.4.1119 -186 2.4.1120 -193 2.4.1115 2.4.1117 2.4.1118 16 2.4.1125 11 2.4.1126 -3 2.4.112710 2.4.1122 2.4.1123 15 2.4.1124 12 12 2.4.1129 2.4.1130 2.4.1131 2.4.1132107 2.4.1133108 2.4.113427 63 2.4.1136 2.4.1137 2.4.1138 25 2.4.1139205 2.4.1140180 2.4.114195 -2.4.1143 134 -143 2.4.11442.4.1145 2.4.1146 32 2.4.1147 16 2.4.1148 -102 2.4.1154 -106 2.4.1155 -110 2.4.1150 2.4.1151-85 2.4.1152 2.4.1153 29 -15 -16 2.4.1157 2.4.1158 2.4.1159 2.4.1160-11 2.4.1161 2.4.1162-10 1.01 39 37 2.4.1167540 2.4.1168544 2.4.1169594 2.4.1164 2.4.1165 2.4.1166 2.65 2.44 2.599 2.4.1175 2.646 2.4.1176 2.564 2.4.1171 1.6 2.4.1172 2.4.1173 2.4.1174 13 31 57 350 350 350 02.4.1178 02.4.1180 2.4.1179 2.4.1181 2.4.1182 2.4.1183 2.4.1185 2.4.1186 2.4.1187 2.4.1188 2.4.1189 2.4.1190 - 2.4.1193 - 2.4.1194 - 2.4.1195 - 2.4.1196 - 2.4.1197 2.4.1192 200 2.4.1199 2.4.1200 2.4.1201 2.4.1202 2.4.1203 2.4.12 2.4.1206 2.4.1207 2.4.1208 2.4.1209 2.4.1210 2.4.1211 350 2.4.1217 350 2.4.1218 350 2.4.1213 2.4.1214 31 2.4.1215 57 2.4.1216 - 2.4.1223 - 2.4.1224 - 2.4.1225 2.4.1220 2.4.1221 2.4.1222 -957 -297 -387 96 2.4.1227 Dividends paid, proílts distributed to owners 2.4.1234 Increase/(Decrease) in owner's equity 2.4.1241 CFF 2.4.1248 Net cash flows during the period 2.4.1255 Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the 2.4.1262 Cash and cash equivalents at end of the period 2.4.1228 2.4.1235476 2.4.1242 -1.638 2.4.1249 1.082 2.4.1256 814 2.4.1263 1.896 2.4.1229 2.4.1236476 2.4.1243 -1.378 2.4.1250 2.4.1257-89 1.502 2.4.1264 1.413 97 2.4.1230 2.4.1237476 2.4.1244 -1.136 2.4.1251 2.4.1258737 1.019 2.4.1265 1.757 2.4.1231 2.4.1232 2.4.1233 476 2.4.1239 476 2.4.1240 476 2.4.1238 2.4.1245 - 2.4.1246 - 2.4.1247 -1.433 -774 -864 2.4.1252 2.4.1253 2.4.1254 816 1.52 1.35 2.4.1259 2.4.1260 2.4.1261 1.36 1.78 2.91 2.4.1266 2.4.1267 2.4.1268 2.17 3.30 4.26 2.4.1269 REEERENCES https://www.investopedia.eom/terms/f/freecashflowfirm.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/fZfreecashflow.asp https://www.investopedia.eom/terms/m/multiplesapproach.asp https://www.investopedia.eom/terms/r/returnonassets.asp https://dautucophieu.net/co-hoi-dau-tu-nganh-phan-bon-nam2018/ https://www.investopedia.eom/terms/w/wacc.asp https://www.investopedia.eom/terms/d/dupontanalvsis.asp https://www.investopedia.eom/terms/s/swot.asp https://www.investopedia.eom/terms/t/topdowninvesting.asp 10 https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/193.asp 11 https://www.investopedia.eom/terms/m/macroeconomics.asp 12.https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/resources/startuphandbook/valuation-methods/articleshow/59368401.cms 13 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dcf.asp 14 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/intrinsicvalue.asp 15 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/eps.asp 16.http://fìnance.vietstock.vn/DCM-petro-viet-nam-ca-maufertilizerịsc.htm 17.https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042315/what-aredrawbacks-using-dividend-discount-model-ddm-value-stock.asp 18 https://www.investopedia.com/universitv/dcf/dcf5.asp 98 ... problem, I chose the topic of "Intrinsic value estimation for Petro Viet Nam Ca Mau Fertilizer JSC" > Research objective Research Question: How we identify the fair value of DCM’s stock? General... presented only in Viet Nam • 2011: 9th March 2011 PetroVietNam CaMau Fertilizer Company • 2012: 30th February 2012 CaMau Fertilizer Factory officially operated and reached the capacity of 500.000... 1.1.4 Intrinsic value • Intrinsic value is the perceived or calculated value of a company, including tangible and intangible factors, using íundamental analysis Also called the true value, the intrinsic