Proposed measures towards the balance of vietnamese trade balance today

Introduction Lý chọn đề tài Trade balance is an issue that economists and policymakers are looking forward to In Vietnam, the trade balance in the past 10 years has been inclined to trade deficit from USD million in 2002 to USD 12-15 billion in 2010 Prior to that situation, many authors have searched for solution to balance the trade balance Most studies have said that exchange rate is the main factor affecting the trade balance and thus the domestic studies focused on measuring the impact of exchange rates on the trade balance has not focused on explaining the causes of the trade balance imbalance, not mentioning the trade imbalance between Vietnam and China, not yet establishing a J-curve for Vietnam , there is no complete research on analyzing trade deficit in investment and saving relationships To add to this issue, the author has chosen the topic "Trade deficit and aims to balance Vietnam's trade balance" to be the research topic In addition to focusing on analyzing the causes of trade deficit in two aspects: import-export relation and the relationship between investment and savings, the study also measures a number of macro factors affecting Vietnam's trade balance Nam by co-analysis analysis techniques and error correction model (ECM -Error correction model) This is a technique applied by many domestic and foreign researchers when studying trade balance, because it is suitable for the characteristics of time series data In addition, when using the co-linking technique, we can apply the IRF (Impulse Response Function) function to draw a J-curve to see the trade balance response if VND devaluation Tính cấp thiết đề tài It is essential to determine the cause of Vietnam's trade deficit, because the trade deficit reflects many imbalances in the economy and only when determining the exact cause of the deficit can then offer reasonable solutions to bring the trade balance to equilibrium As is well known, trade balances are influenced by many macro factors and measuring their influence on trade balances is also essential for policy makers to select the necessary tools When it is necessary to intervene in the economy to achieve the expected effect On the other hand, at present, Vietnam has no agencies to announce the real exchange rate, some topics of some financial and monetary researchers have mentioned this issue, due to the real exchange rate fluctuations in The context of the Vietnamese economy is in the process of transition, so there may be different ways of assessing the exchange rate policy at different times Therefore, updating the real exchange rate and re-evaluating its impacts on the economy in general, the import and export activities of Vietnamese enterprises in particular and the appropriate exchange rate policy are appropriate Each period is needed Mục tiêu đề tài In order to contribute an additional perspective, a viewpoint to Vietnam's trade deficit problem, the author analyzes to determine the cause of the trade deficit in both approaches: export relation import and the relationship between investment and savings The author measures the influence of a number of macro factors affecting the trade balance Calculate bilateral and multilateral real exchange rates and assess its impact on Vietnam's import and export activities Based on the analysis, the author proposes a number of measures towards the balance of Vietnam's trade balance Đối tượng nghiên cứu To achieve the research objectives as mentioned above, the thesis targets the following subjects: - Vietnam's trade balance; - The VND exchange rate against a number of currencies of major trading partners with Vietnam; - Local currency exchange rate of these partners against USD; - Vietnam's CPI and major trading partners, Vietnam's import-export values with the above-mentioned major trading partners Growth rate of gross national product (GDP) of Vietnam and trading partners, the scale of foreign direct investment in Vietnam (FDI); - Vietnam's export-import value and trade balance; - The level of investment and savings of the Vietnamese economy Phạm vi nghiên cứu The scope of the research is: - Vietnam's trade balance from the first quarter of 2009 to the last quarter of 2019 - Vietnam's import and export data with trading partners, Vietnam's CPI and partners, the growth rate of gross national product (GDP) of Vietnam and its trading partners model of foreign direct investment in Vietnam (FDI), import-export value and trade balance of Vietnam, investment and savings level of Vietnam's economy and exchange rate of Vietnam with VND These partners were collected from Q1 2009 to Q4 2019 Phương pháp nghiên cứu In this study, the author uses many research methods such as: - Comparison method: Based on actual data collected The author compares with specific objectives and targets from which to draw points of good and bad points; - Modeling method: This method is used for clarification qualitative analysis with specific drawings to make the problem easier to understand; - Method of econometric analysis: The author uses regression techniques At the same time, it is necessary to link together to analyze long-term equilibrium and ECM model to analyze short-term equilibrium of some macro factors affecting the trade balance in the period of 2009-2019 Ý nghĩa khoa học đề tài When analyzing the factors affecting the balance of trade, the author is based on the principle of cetaris paribus, meaning that when studying the effects of one factor, we fix other factors Dữ liệu nghiên cứu In the thesis, the author used secondary statistics from data sources from the General Statistics Office (GSO), Ministry of Finance (MOF), National Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) , Asian Development Bank (ADB) published in the period from 1999 to 2010 CHAPTER 1: THEORY 1.1 Definitions 1.1.1 Export Exports are the goods and services produced in one country and purchased by residents of another country It doesn't matter what the good or service is or how it is sent It can be shipped, sent by email, or carried in personal luggage on a plane If it is produced domestically and sold to someone in a foreign country, it is an export Exports are one component of international trade The other component is imports They are the goods and services bought by a country's residents that are produced in a foreign country Combined, they make up a country's trade balance When the country exports more than it imports, it has a trade surplus When it imports more than it exports, it has a trade deficit 1.1.2 Import Imports are foreign goods and services bought by citizens, businesses, and the government of another country It doesn't matter what the imports are or how they are sent They can be shipped, sent by email, or even hand-carried in personal luggage on a plane If they are produced in a foreign country and sold to domestic residents, they are imports Even tourism products and services are imports When you travel outside the country, you are importing any souvenirs you bought on your trip 1.1.3 Trade deficit A trade deficit also referred to as net exports, is an economic condition that occurs when a country is importing more goods than it is exporting The trade deficit is calculated by taking the value of goods being imported and subtracting it by the value of goods being exported If a country has a trade deficit, it imports (or buys) more goods and services from other countries than it exports (or sells) internationally If a country exports more goods and services than it imports, the country has a balance of trade surplus A trade deficit can impact a stock market—albeit indirectly—since it can be a positive sign that a country is growing and needs more imports or a negative sign that a country is struggling to sell its goods internationally 1.2 Factors affect to trade deficit 1.2.1 Reflection of trade balance From the perspective of import and export, this balance reflects revenues and expenditures of exports Import of goods in a given period When the trade balance is in surplus it is means that the country has earned more from its exports than paid for and vice versa, when the trade balance is in deficit this means that country has been obtained from exports less than paid for import Trade balance (TB) = Export value (X) - Import value (M) The trade balance is in surplus when (X - M)> 0; in contrast, the trade balance is intensive Missed when (X - M)