Tài liệu market timing pptx

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Fisher All About Mutual Funds, 2nd edition by Bruce Jacobs All About Stock Market Strategies by David Brown and Kassandra Bentley All About Index Funds by Richard Ferri All About Hedge Funds by Robert Jaegar All About Technical Analysis by Constance Brown All About Exchange-Traded Funds by Archie Richards FM_Masonson141331-6 8/27/03 10:24 AM Page ii ALL ABOUT MARKET TIMING The Easy Way to Get Started LESLIE N. MASONSON McGraw-Hill New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto FM_Masonson141331-6 8/27/03 10:24 AM Page iii Copyright © 2004 by Leslie M. Masonson. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America. 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DEDICATION FM_Masonson141331-6 8/27/03 10:24 AM Page v This page intentionally left blank. CONTENTS Foreword ix Acknowledgments xi Introduction xiii PART 1 MARKET-TIMING BASICS Chapter 1 The Stock Market = Bull Markets + Bear Markets 3 Chapter 2 The Buy-and-Hold Myth 23 Chapter 3 Market-Timing: What You Need to Know39 Chapter 4 Ten Indicators to Determine the Market’s Health 51 Chapter 5 Specialized Mutual Funds: Index, Sector, and Leveraged Funds 75 Chapter 6 Exchange-Traded Funds 89 PART 2 MARKET-TIMING STRATEGIES Chapter 7 Calendar-Based Investing: The Best Six Months Strategy 99 vii FM_Masonson141331-6 8/27/03 10:24 AM Page vii For more information about this title, click here. Copyright 2004 by Leslie M. Masonson. Click Here for Terms of Use. [...]... you are very experienced with the stock market and index funds, and if you are already convinced of the merits of market- timing, then I recommend that you can go directly to Chapters 7 through 11 for the recommended market- timing strategies If you prefer subscribing to a market- timing newsletter or using a markettiming advisor instead of using a self-directed timing strategy, then Chapter 12 is for... IS MARKET TIMING? Market timing can be defined as making investment buy and sell decisions using a mechanical trading strategy which employs one or more indicators and/or proven strategies The objective of a successful market- timing system is to be invested in the market during up trends and to be either in cash (or in a short position) during down trends, especially during brutal bear markets Market. .. major stock market tops and bottoms This situation will always be with us, because the emotions of dealing with investing—fear and greed—will never change Market timing is not a perfect investing approach; there is no such thing Market timing cannot predict when the market will change direction But, if you use a reliable market- timing system and follow its signals, then you will exit the market when... successful market timers are provided, as well as six key points about market timing that need to be understood The distinction between classic market timers and dynamic asset allocators is covered Documented examples of market timers who have been successful are mentioned to prove that market timing does work consistently in the real world Chapters 4 and 5 review the best vehicles to use when timing the market. .. Composite 6 Percent Strategy 183 PART 3 MARKET- TIMING RESOURCES Chapter 12 Market- Timing Resources: Newsletters, Web Sites, and Advisors 193 Chapter 13 Market- Timing Software 217 Epilogue 227 Bibliography and Web Sites 231 Index 235 About the Author 245 FOREWORD Market timing is not a fun vocation or avocation It is tough and ugly I know this well, because I’ve been a market timer in the trenches since... clawed the market over the next three years, to prices not seen for five years Investors Are Too Emotional and Overconfident The stock market is a very difficult place to make money This is not a new thought Over the past 100 years the stock market has been The Stock Market ϭ Bull Markets ϩ Bear Markets 7 punctuated with sharp, uplifting bull markets, followed by swiftly plummeting bear markets This... clear of bear markets before they decimate your portfolio? Yes The approach is called market timing, and it works, no matter what you’ve heard to the contrary This book contains compelling data on successful market- timing approaches that beat the market indexes over decades The strategies are simple so that you can use them yourself with little work And for those of you who prefer to have a market timer... found that 65 percent of the 100 market- timing newsletter services that he tracks beat the S&P 500 benchmark in 2000, 45 percent beat it in 2001, and 80 percent beat it in 2002 That’s precisely what market timing is all about—reducing losses when a bear market strikes BEAR MARKETS ARE A RECURRING PART OF THE INVESTING CYCLE—YOU MUST BE PREPARED TO DEAL WITH THEM Future bear markets will arrive like clockwork,... premise is that the safest way to invest in the stock market is to be “out” of the market in a cash account (or to be short the market) , during declining periods, and to be “in” the market only during the most favorable time periods This completely contradicts what some experts will tell you You will hear “It’s time in the market that counts, not timing the market. ” I will show you that the opposite is true... with periodic bear markets In fact, in the aggregate, losses suffered in bear markets often exceed the gains earned in bull markets Bull and bear market cycles are reviewed in detail, including secular bull and bear markets where there are long periods of time when the market does nothing and you are biding your time That is no way to make money Also here, the poor record of the market experts is exposed . xiii PART 1 MARKET- TIMING BASICS Chapter 1 The Stock Market = Bull Markets + Bear Markets 3 Chapter 2 The Buy-and-Hold Myth 23 Chapter 3 Market- Timing: What. Strategy 183 PART 3 MARKET- TIMING RESOURCES Chapter 12 Market- Timing Resources: Newsletters, Web Sites, and Advisors 193 Chapter 13 Market- Timing Software