Comodels engineering dynamic compositions of coupled models to support the simulation of complex systems

RÉSUMÉ

ABSTRACT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF ACRONYMS

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER 2 STATE OF THE ART

2.1 Land-use and land-cover change models
- 2.1.1 Descriptive and explicative models
- 2.1.2 Bridging the gap: toward hybrid models
2.2 Decision-making of farmers concerning land-use change
2.3 Brief introduction to decision-making in socio-ecological systems
- 2.3.1 Decision-making approaches for reactive agents
  - 2.3.1.1 The Markov chain approach
  - 2.3.1.2 Multi-criteria decision analysis
- 2.3.2 Decision-making approaches for cognitive agents
  - 2.3.2.1 Rational choice theory
  - 2.3.2.2 Theory of Planned Behaviors
2.4 Agent architectures embedding decision-making processes
- 2.4.1 Cognitive agent architectures
- 2.4.2 BDI architectures
  - 2.4.2.1 BDI in the Procedural Reasoning System
  - 2.4.2.2 BDI architecture in JASON
  - 2.4.2.3 BDI for JADE
  - 2.4.2.4 BDI in JADEX
  - 2.4.2.5 Conclusion on BDI architectures
2.5 BDI architectures and platforms to simulate farmer behaviors
- 2.5.1 Agent architectures for representing farmer behaviors
- 2.5.2 BDI architecture in existing ABM platforms
2.6 Conclusion

CHAPTER 3 THE BASIC MULTI-AGENT BASED MODEL OF LAND-USE CHANGE (MAB-LUC)

3.1 Basic integrated model for the land-use change
- 3.1.1 The conceptual model of the MAB-LUC
- 3.1.2 Modularity of the MAB-LUC
3.2 Definition of the MAB-LUC
- 3.2.1 Economic Sub-model
  - 3.2.1.1 Overview
  - 3.2.1.2 Model design
  - 3.2.1.3 Details
- 3.2.2 Environmental sub-model
  - 3.2.2.1 Overview
  - 3.2.2.3 Details
- 3.2.3 Sub-model of farmers’ social influence
  - 3.2.3.1 Overview
- 3.2.4 Farmer sub-model
  - 3.2.4.1 Overview
  - 3.2.4.2 Markov-based decision-making approach
    - 3.2.4.2.1 Markov matrix
    - 3.2.4.2.2 Markov-based decision-making process
  - 3.2.4.3 Multi-Criteria Decision-Making approach
    - 3.2.4.3.1 Definition of the fitness function
    - 3.2.4.3.2 Definition of the criteria
    - 3.2.4.3.3 Weighting of the criteria
- 3.2.5 Discussion about the farmer decision-making agent
3.3 Conclusion

CHAPTER 4 INTEGRATING A HUMAN DECISION-MAKING MODEL INTO AN AGENT BASED MODEL

4.1 Principles of the human decision-making architecture
4.2 Presentation of the GAMA BDI plug-in
- 4.2.1 Representation of knowledge of GAMA BDI agents
  - 4.2.1.1 Declaration of a BDI agent
  - 4.2.1.2 Predicates
  - 4.2.1.3 Belief base
  - 4.2.1.4 Desire base
  - 4.2.1.5 Intention base
- 4.2.2 Behavior of agents
  - 4.2.2.1 Perception
  - 4.2.2.2 Rule
  - 4.2.2.3 Plans
4.3 Integrating the BDI architecture into the sub-model of Farmers
- 4.3.1 Conceptual model of the farmers based on the BDI architecture
- 4.3.2 Desires base of farmers
- 4.3.3 Intentions base of farmers
- 4.3.4 Set of plans defined for farmers
4.4 Conclusion

CHAPTER 5 VALIDATION OF THE COGNITIVE AGENT IN LAND-USE CHANGE MODELS

5.1 Description of experiments
- 5.1.1 Experiment data
- 5.1.2 Indicators for simulation assessment
5.2 Calibration of the sub-model of the MAB-LUC
- 5.2.1 Calibration of the model of farmers using Markov-based decision approach
- 5.2.2 Calibration of the model of farmers using MCDM approach
- 5.2.3 Calibration of the model of Farmers using the BDI-based decision approach
5.3 Evaluation the MAB-LUC
- 5.3.1 Experiment 1: The MAB-LUC using Markov-based decision approach
- 5.3.2 Experiment 2: The MAB-LUC using the MCDM approach
- 5.3.3 Experiment 3: The MAB-LUC model using the BDI - based decision approach
5.4 Assessment
5.5 Conclusion

CHAPTER 6 INTEGRATION OF THE LAND-USE CHANGE MODEL INTO THE LAND-USE PLANNING PROCESS

6.1 Integration of the MAB-LUC into the land-use planning process
6.2 Appraisal of socio-economic factors for land-use plans
6.3 Appraisal of both socio-economic and environmental factors for land-use plans
6.4 Assessment of land-use plans under climate change
6.5 Conclusion

CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSION

7.1 Contributions
- 7.1.1 Contributions to agent-based modeling
- 7.1.2 Contributions for LUCC, LUP and assessment on impact of climate change
7.2 Perspectives
- 7.2.1 Improving the integrated model regarding the usage of uncertain data
- 7.2.2 Extending the integrated model to similar works
  - 7.2.2.1 Environmental assessment of sustainable aquaculture
  - 7.2.2.2 Analysis of forestry economic services

A APPENDIX A: GLOSSARY

B APPENDIX B: PUBLICATIONS

REFERENCES