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Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World Section 1: Global Acceptance of GSM Friedhelm Hillebrand 1 22.1.1 Introduction Nobody amongst the early key players expected that GSM would become a global success. There was even deep concern whether it would become a success in all Western European countries. The GSM MoU signed in September 1987 2 differentiated between commitments for CEPT countries and the rest of the world: † The signatories shall .make efforts .to extend a 900 MHz Pan-European digital cellu- lar .service to cover the territories of all CEPT administrations (GSM MoU Article 14) † signatories shall . provide .advice and other appropriate support to administrations outside CEPT considering the introduction of a .system (according) to the CEPT/GSM standard’’ (GSM MoU Article 16) When the name of the standardisation group GSM (Groupe Spe ´ cial Mobile) was used as system name and interpreted as ‘‘Global System for Mobile Communication’’ in 1991/1992, many people – including myself – expressed concern about this wording. We felt this wording as over-ambitious and even arrogant. But there are also self-fulfilling prophecies. Interest in mobile communication grew considerably during the late 1980s and early 1990s in many countries around the world. The situation varied considerably from country to country. The main difference for a decision on which mobile system to use, was, whether the interest of a country was driven primarily by the need of a mobile infrastructure or whether there was a strong industry policy interest in system development and manufactur- ing. The acceptance of GSM needed promoters. The promotion within Western Europe was done mainly by leading network operators. Outside Europe generally the lead was with 1 The views expressed in this section are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of his affiliation entity. 2 The text can be found in the attached CD-ROM Folder D. GSM and UMTS: The Creation of Global Mobile Communication Edited by Friedhelm Hillebrand Copyright q 2001 John Wiley & Sons Ltd ISBNs: 0-470-84322-5 (Hardback); 0-470-845546 (Electronic) globally active manufacturers who saw the chance of creating a world market for GSM, e.g. Alcatel, Ericsson, Lucent, Motorola, Nokia, Nortel, Siemens. There were also efforts to promote GSM by network operators with international ambitions, e.g. Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom, Vodafone. Seminars played a key role, organised under the auspices of the GSM MoU Group later with participation of manufacturers’ associations. They provided a neutral discussion place where interested parties in ‘‘ new’’ countries could meet key players and discuss with them. These events often played a catalytic role in the GSM acceptance process. The most impor- tant events are mentioned in Table 22.1.1. The GSM MoU Group opened up in 1991 for non-European members by a revision of the original MoU in an Addendum 3 . This opened up a basically European club for non-European members. With the greater number of non-European members a ‘‘ globalisation’’ was needed. To achieve this, the GSM Association undertook during 1995 a complete review. This lead to the GSM and UMTS: The Creation of Global Mobile Communication532 Table 22.1.1 GSM promotion seminars under the auspices of the GSM MoU Group Date Location Purpose Co-ordination 12–14 October 1988 Hagen (Germany) To present the first GSM specifications prepared for tendering of infrastructure to a wide audience of operators, manufacturers and academia A. Silberhorn, P. Dupuis, L. Kittel (University of Hagen) 16–18 October 1990 Budapest (Hungary) To ‘‘ familiarise Eastern European network operators with the GSM standard and its inherent benefits’’ , ‘‘ .study the possibility of implementation of .GSM .in Eastern Europe’’ F. Hillebrand June/July 1993 Prague (Czech Republic) To present the benefits of accepting GSM and how to use GSM to several Middle/Eastern European ministries G. Schmitt 27–28 September 1994 Beijing (China) The provision of information to the Chinese authorities: GSM services, system, features and their evolution, GSM acceptance in the world, comparison between second generation systems F. Hillebrand 17–19 August 1994 New Delhi (India) Th provision of information to the Indian authorities: SM standard, security issues, regulation, licensing of operators, planning and operation F. Hillebrand 4–5 December 1995 Buenos Aires (Argentina) Promotion of GSM in Latin America F. Hillebrand 3 The text can be found in the attached CD-ROM Folder D. removing of terminology like Pan-European System etc. from the GSM MoU. The member- ship fee structure was reviewed, arising from both the growing globalisation of GSM and ongoing interest in GSM as a wireless local loop candidate technology in addition to † cellular from lower GDP/ head countries. A balance needed to be struck † between the interests of these newer potential members (including in some † cases their higher relative scepticism to whether the roaming benefits could † be seen and the need for some of advanced services) and the more † traditional GSM operators who may have been involved for some time. An appropriate set of compromises were reached and the original membership † fee structure was changed formally in 1996 to one based on a weighted GDP † per head basis, including an assessment of the number of competing † operators, so the burden could be shared within a given country, and † regional or local licensed footprints could also be taken into consideration † as well. This membership fee structure is still in place today and has † helped with the constructive development of membership throughout the globe. The adoption of roaming and advanced services may not yet be everywhere, but † by holding the GSM ASSOCIATION together in this way the benefits are greater † overall for GSM customers and the industry as a whole. 22.1.2 Europe 22.1.2.1 Western Europe: 15 States Now in the European Union, Switzerland and Norway The GSM Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed in September 1987 by 14 network operators from 13 countries. In November 1988 there were already 19 signatories from 18 countries. These network operators committed themselves to open service to their capital city and its airport in 1991. This agreement was a good starting point. But the implementation was not easy. The biggest problem was that manufacturers needed to be convinced that GSM was meant seriously. This was achieved finally in autumn 1998 by the award of ten contracts to a number of manufacturers for the supply of infrastructure. But this meant also that nine network operators who had signed the GSM MoU had not ordered infrastructure in the autumn of 1988. In addition several of the ten contracts ordered only a validation system. There were only two contracts with substantial quantities of infrastructure equipment, the contracts of Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom. Both operators had decided not to implement a large capacity analogue ‘‘ interim’’ system. These volumes were the first orders of large amounts of real serial equipment. GSM had a difficult competitive situation in the case of operators who had implemented large capacity analogue ‘‘ interim’’ systems 4 GSM had an inferior coverage in the beginning. Analogue hand-helds were available since the late 1980s. GSM hand-helds became available in quantities in 1993 and were in the beginning bigger than advanced analogue hand-helds. Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World 533 4 E.g. NMT900 in Scandinavia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and TACS in the UK, Italy and Austria. The second wave of volume orders for serial equipment came from the new private competitors who got GSM licences in the 1989/1990 time frame (e.g. Mannesmann Mobil- funk in Germany, SFR in France, Omnitel in Italy) and the GSM 1800 operators in the UK and Germany. At this stage GSM created a much larger demand than the expansion of existing high capacity analogue systems could cause. The strong development efforts of mobile station manufacturers lead to an unexpectedly early appearance of several hand-helds already in 1993. Finally the superior services portfolio (including international roaming) and the higher security lead to an energetic construction and expansion of GSM networks. Every GSM MoU signatory had an operational GSM network in mid-1994. In Western Europe the number of GSM subscribers passed the number of analogue subscribers in early May 1996 with 13.8 million each. Most analogue networks became irrelevant during the 1990s. Many were switched off in 2000. At the end of 2000 only 2.3% of all European mobile subscribers were still served by the analogue systems NMT and TACS. 22.1.2.2 Central and Eastern Europe Strong promotion efforts of manufacturers and two seminars organised under the umbrella of the GSM MoU Group (see Table 22.1.1) prepared the ground. All countries of the region had an underdeveloped fixed network. Most countries rapidly issued two GSM licences. Large network were developed in Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Slovakia (Table 22.1.2). Smaller networks exist in Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, Macedonia, Moldavia, Montenegro, Serbia, Ukraine and other countries. These networks had a growth which was much higher than forecasted. They played a critical role to the economic recovery of these countries, since they rapidly provided a powerful infrastructure for economic development. International roaming with Western Europe was very attractive. The network operators attracted many talented people since they offered future-proof new jobs. These licences attracted Western investors, who provided capital and know-how. Russia was in a more difficult situation due to the revolutionary changes of the economy and the sheer size of the country. They issued only regional licences and small coverage islands appeared. They achieved 2.2 million GSM users by the end of 2000. GSM and UMTS: The Creation of Global Mobile Communication534 Table 22.1.2 Large GSM networks in Middle/Eastern Europe Country Start of 2 GSM operators Users at the end of 2000 in millions Hungary 1994 3.8 Czech Republic 1996 4.0 Poland 1996 5.2 Romania 1997 2.3 Slovakia 1997 1.3 The three Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania found investors and know-how from their Scandinavian neighbours and developed from 1993 to seven GSM networks with 1.5 million users at the end of 2000. 22.1.3 The Arab World The Arab countries (about 40) share one language and they communicate intensively amongst themselves. Therefore GSM was very attractive, since it was the only system offering fully developed proven international roaming. Another attractive feature for the country leaders was the high level of protection against eavesdropping and unauthorised use. During the 1990s telecommunication was a monopoly in all Arab countries. This also included mobile communications. The acceptance of GSM started by an agreement between the Gulf states in the Gulf Co- operation Council to adopt GSM in the early 1990s. Etisalat (United Arab Emirates) was the first operator from the region who applied for membership in the GSM MoU Group, already in May 1991 (MoU#16). Their manager Hatim Lutfi was the first overseas participant in a MoU meeting at MoU#17 in September 1991 in Brighton. The Gulf states planned to become a services and trading centre for the region in the period after the exhaustion of the oil. Therefore they invested heavily in telecommunication infrastructure and were interested in becoming leaders in GSM in the Arab World. The second phase was the agreement of the Arab League to adopt GSM in 1992. Within the framework of an ITU project called MODARABTEL, the Arab League had established a Telecom office in Tunis. In 1993 Nina Danielsen, a GSM expert from Norway was posted in this office. One of her achievements was the preparation of a workshop open to the mobile communication experts of all Arab countries. This workshop took place in Amman on the 22- 25 November 1993 and was extremely successful. This contributed to a blossoming of GSM networks in many Arab countries, e.g. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon, Morocco. Today all the Arab countries have a GSM network. GSM provides to mobile users a seamless infrastructure for the Arab World. In total 10 million people used GSM at the end of 2000. 22.1.4 Asia Pacific 22.1.4.1 Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Islands Australia’s regulator Austel was the first non-European organisation which applied for membership in the GSM MoU Group in February 1991 (MoU#15) since it had decided to implement GSM. The Australian regulatory authority had thoroughly reviewed all available analogue and digital alternatives. The Australian incumbent operator had an analogue AMPS network. The regulator wanted modernisation and competition of at least two operators for the incumbent. Therefore it was decided to go for a digital system. GSM was seen as superior to other alternatives. A serious disadvantage for the analogue and digital systems developed in the US was, that they allowed only two operators to compete in a given area. New Zealand successfully implemented a GSM network very early. Vodafone acquired a licence in Fiji. The French operators covered the French overseas territories in the Pacific. Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World 535 22.1.4.2 The Asian Tiger States South Korea was driven by a strong industry policy interest in developing and manufacturing their own system. They acquired licence rights to CDMA ANSI 95 radio transmission technology and became a leader in that technology. GSM was not admitted. Korea achieved a penetration of the home market of 41%. But they are isolated from the world in the second generation. They have drawn conclusions from this experience for their third generation plans and are active members of 3GPP, at least for the terminal and radio part. Singapore and Hong Kong had a liberal regulation regime. In both states networks with different technologies were implemented by several operators. In both cases GSM was the clear winner of the competition. This is especially remarkable in Hong Kong with its difficult radio coverage situation (skyscrapers, sea, mountains). Here GSM took 84% of the market in 1999 (Table 22.1.3). In Taiwan the incumbent operator implemented GSM 900 very early. Then competitors and GSM 1900 operators were licensed. Taiwan reached 17.6 million users by the end of 2000. Also Malaysia successfully licensed several GSM 900 and 1800 operators. 22.1.4.3 China The GSM promotion activities were mainly done by many major manufacturers who were already active in China in fixed or even mobile communications. The first success was the GSM network in the southern province of Guangdong, an industrialised special zone. They became indeed the first Chinese signatory of the GSM MoU. Guangdong was to my mind seen by the Chinese Ministry of Post and Telecommunications (MPT) as a test case. There were intensive promotional activities of the two main groupings in 1993/1994: † ‘‘ CDMA’’ : ANSI95, lead promoter Qualcomm † ‘‘ GSM’’: promoted mainly by Alcatel, Ericsson, Nokia and Siemens The MPT invited several field trials in early 1994. Qualcomm declared victory for ANSI 95 CDMA in a very aggressive seminar in spring 1994. The GSM ‘‘ camp’’ provided a lot of information, but it became clear, that a bigger effort was needed. So the idea of a GSM promotion seminar under the auspices of the GSM MoU Group was born (see Table 22.1.1). I worked at that time for the GSM MoU Group and was charged with arranging such a seminar. Richard Midgett and his colleagues from Hong Kong GSM and UMTS: The Creation of Global Mobile Communication536 Table 22.1.3 Distribution of mobile users between competing standards in Hong Kong System Subscribers in millions (end of 1999) Share in % GSM 3.4 86 ANSI54 0.05 1 ANSI95 0.51 13 Total 3.96 100 Telecom looked after the local organisation. They had Chinese colleagues who travelled every week to Beijing. They interested the MPT in supporting this seminar. In addition they provided invaluable support in cultural questions. The program provided comprehensive information about GSM: standards, operator’s co- operation, system evolution and acceptance of GSM in the different regions of the world. We did not avoid the comparison between GSM and CDMA. Wilhelm Heger of Siemens held a University lecture of one and a half hours on that subject, which provided facts after facts and made a deep impact. There were about 15 speakers, one-quarter of them were Chinese born and about 40 participants. More than one-third of the time was allocated to discussions. Some took place in plenary, many in little groups. Hong Kong Telecom and MPT provided interpreters. After this seminar all ‘‘ camps’’ intensified their lobby efforts. In late 1994 MPT adopted GSM as a Chinese national standard. The decision regarding CDMA was postponed. Then China Telecom Mobile and China Unicom began to construct GSM networks in all provinces. Manufacturers formed joint ventures with Chinese companies. There were only very limited possibilities for foreigners to participate in the network operators: some finan- cing in the beginning, and recently a small share of Vodafone in China Telecom Mobile. The result is that at the end of 2000 all Chinese provinces are covered and China Telecom operates the largest GSM network with 52.8 million users. They enjoy international roaming with the whole GSM world. In total there were 71.6 million GSM users in China at the end of 2000. 22.1.4.4 India India has licensed GSM operators in two phases. At first eight operators were licensed in the most densely populated four regions. These licence decisions were appealed by parties not considered in the Supreme Court. These cases were resolved. The operators had a difficult start in finding finance, by high license fees and by the fact that they had only a regional license. This was a barrier to nation-wide roaming and also to international roaming, since so many small operators were not attractive roaming partners. This could be overcome by an intensive co-operation of the operators. Before the Ministry of Post and Telecommunication initiated the license competition for the 48 telecom circles, covering the rest of the country, they asked the GSM MoU Group to provide information about the GSM standard, security, spectrum matters, licensing of opera- tors, etc. A seminar was organised in autumn 1994 (see Table 22.1.1). The subsequent licensing process went smoothly without problems. Indian operators achieved 3.1 million GSM users by the end of 2000 despite the difficulties and the late start. 22.1.4.5 Indonesia Indonesia is with its extent of several thousand kilometres east to west and several ten of thousands islands a very large country. Several manufacturers (e.g. Alcatel and Siemens) were successful in promoting GSM. The networks cover only densely populated areas and support the economic development of Indonesia. Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World 537 22.1.4.6 Philippines The Philippines were successful in implementing GSM networks. 22.1.4.7 Japan The Japanese observed the GSM standardisation work in CEPT, but were – to my mind – not convinced that the Europeans would succeed in agreeing on one standard and implement it successfully. Japan is of course like South Korea very much interested in development and manufacturing. On the world market for analogue systems they had been fairly successful in the terminal business. After the very limited success of the analogue mobile system in Japan they developed a standard for a second generation digital system called Personal Digital Communication System (PDC.) 5 The radio solution uses 30 kHz channels and applies a TDMA with three channels on each radio carrier. This basic TDMA system is similar to the ANSI 136 standard developed in the US. The Japanese also standardised a fully digital core network based on ISDN with extensions for mobile communications which are similar to GSM. The first system standards were completed about a year after the first GSM standards. PDC was very successful in Japan. It achieved a penetration of the market of about 40%, but it was not accepted abroad. In order to break the roaming isolation, work started on inter-standard roaming between GSM and PDC in 1996/1997, but it achieved little success in the market. Finally for the third generation the leading Japanese players and the GSM community agreed on a common path to the future (see Chapter 8, Section 2, paragraph 2.6) 22.1.5 North America Analogue cellular mobile systems had been invented in the US by Bell Laboratories in the early 1970s. A single system was standardised: the Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS). This was very successful in the US. This early success influenced almost all countries of the Americas, which adopted AMPS 800 MHz and later its succeeding solutions TDMA and CDMA in the same frequency band. Total Access Communication System (TACS) is a variant modified for European spectrum plans. It was very successful in Italy, UK and Austria. US operators and manufacturers were very successful in the analogue era. AMPS had annual terminal productions of more than 1 million units per year in the 1980s. Such volumes were not reachable in the fragmented European analogue market. But such numbers were the dreams for GSM. The key event for the long-term development was a decision of the FCC immediately after President Reagan came into office. The FCC decided not take action to encourage the agreement on one national standard for the emerging digital cellular technologies. Instead the market should decide which technology would be used. Two digital radio solutions were standardised and implemented to provide additional capacity in AMPS networks: † ANSI 136: TDMA in 30 kHz bandwidth † ANSI 95: CDMA in 1.25 MHz bandwidth GSM and UMTS: The Creation of Global Mobile Communication538 5 PHS (Personal Handyphone System) is a Japanese standard for a ‘‘ cordless’’ system like Telepoint systems. An opportunity for GSM emerged, when new spectrum became available in the regulatory framework of the Personal Communication Service (PCS) in 1993/1994 (see Chapter 6, Section 1). All licences were issued on a regional basis. The rich features of GSM, including fraud minimisation, and the advanced proven technology were attractive. An adaptation of GSM for the US was needed (see Chapter 6). The competitive situation for GSM was very difficult due to the different industry policy interests of several players. The first North American PCS network was opened by American Personal Communications in the Washington DC area in November 1995. Today GSM is operated in the US by Cingular, Voicestrem and Powertel. In Canada the operator Microcell opened service in 1996 and reached 922 000 users at the end of 2000. At the end of 2000 there were 8.9 million GSM users in North America. The US cellular operators have seen a strong consolidation process. Most smaller GSM operators merged into Voicestream. The CDMA ANSI-95 operators formed two country- wide operators: Verizon Wireless and Sprint PCS. The domestic US wireless properties of BellSouth and SBC were joined to form Cingular Wireless in late 2000. Cingular operates AMPS (both analogue and ANSI 136 TDMA) and GSM networks in the US. ATT Wireless has AMPS (both analogue and ANSI 136 TDMA) networks. ATT Wireless has declared their plans to join GSM for generation 2.5 (i.e. GPRS and EDGE) and third generation (i.e. UMTS). Instrumental in this development was the very rich set of features and functions and the strong momentum for their evolution. International roaming and the high level of security were also very attractive. This sets the scene for a very promising future for GSM in North America. 22.1.6 Africa, South of the Sahara The leading country is South Africa with more than 7.5 million users at the end of 2000 (42 million population). Two GSM 900 licences were issued in the 1993–1994 timeframe. At that time the total long-term forecasts had been about 500 000 users. The PSTN monopoly network, Telkom, attended GSM MoU Association Plenaries from 1992. Membership was transferred to its 50% subsidiary Vodacom in 1993 when the latter, together with MTN, were awarded national GSM licences. For me two elements are remarkable in South Africa. The regulator had stipulated as licence conditions contribution to the development of the under-serviced areas (i.e. a commu- nity service obligation). The GSM operators had to install about 30 000 GSM pay phones. The most common modus operandi was the leasing of community phones and their booths (or phone shops) to small entrepreneurs in the townships. These entrepreneurs created many new jobs and provided telephone services in previously under-serviced areas. The second remarkable element is that the pre-paid service with its low entrance barrier was a great opportunity for people with a lower income to get access to a personal telephone service. South Africa was one of the very first countries to introduce a fully GSM integrated Intelligent Network (IN) based pre-paid service, this being in 1996, when many networks were still planning non-IN service node solutions, which the GSMA subsequently advised against because of inherently greater risks of fraud. In the rest of Africa South of the Sahara the economic situation is difficult. But most countries implemented small GSM networks which covered the capital city and densely Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World 539 populated areas. Both Vodacom and MTN have established other GSM networks in sub- Saharan Africa. Africa, South of Sahara, had 10.3 million users at the end of 2000. And GSM was the only digital mobile communication system in commercial operation. 22.1.7 South America With the adoption of AMPS 800 MHz in the late 1980s throughout the continent, the North American evolution model was set in the region. Not only ANSI 139 TDMA and ANSI 95 CDMA were introduced to expand and to replace 800 MHz AMPS networks, but the deploy- ment of US-PCS 1.9 GHz was decided by some countries of that region. Dominated mostly by North American suppliers, the continent was entirely aligned with the US and condemned to live without GSM. Chile became an exception, it started with GSM 1900 MHz networks in 1997. Other minor GSM networks have been introduced later as it happened in Venezuela and El Salvador, deploying fragments of the regionally scarce 900 MHz spectrum. In total there were 1.6 million GSM users in South America at the end of 2000. Looking back into history, a first seminar organised under the umbrella of the GSM MoU Group supported by manufacturers associations was held in Buenos Aires in December 1995 (see Table 22.1.1). In several conferences presentations were made. These efforts provided much information, but the situation remained difficult, as it was not possible to change the deep-rooted model the region had embraced previously. The turning point happened in 2000 in Brazil, where Alcatel, Nokia and Siemens joined forces to change the model, from regional to global. These efforts resulted in a public enquiry released by the Brazilian regulator, ANATEL, which called society to decide between the use of North American PCS 1.9 GHz or the GSM 1.8 GHz and global IMT-2000 core-band (1.9– 2.2 GHz). Innumerable debates, seminars and lobbying activities took place during a 6 month period with the aid of the GSM Association, UMTS Forum and the a.m. suppliers. They worked very closely together to face the fierce dispute against dominant suppliers and orga- nisations defending PCS 1.9 GHz. Perhaps never before was a question so deeply discussed, involving so many experts and authorities even from outside of the telecommunications branch. At the end, the forces defending the global GSM/UMTS model finally won. The decision of Brazil, the largest market in the region. will most likely influence neigh- bouring countries in the next years, contributing to the their inclusion in the world of global GSM/UMTS communications. Venezuela, with GSM in 900 MHz, is considering the possi- bility of deploying GSM1.8 GHz in combination with the IMT2000 core-band/UMTS. So the wide adoption of GSM and its evolution to third generation UMTS in the continent is not considered a question of ‘‘ if’’ anymore, but only a question of ‘‘ when’’. 22.1.8 East Central Asia The lead country in this region is Iran. Together with neighbouring countries they achieved 2 million users by the end of 2000. GSM and UMTS: The Creation of Global Mobile Communication540 [...]... and augmented by Don Zelmer (Cingular) and Quent Cassens (Connexant) The text about the Americas has been reviewed and augmented by Mario Baumgarten (Siemens, Brazil) The whole text and especially the section on Africa has been reviewed and augmented by Barry Vlok (Vodacom) Mike Short (BT Wireless) reviewed the text and contributed to the description of the development in the GSM Association GSM and. .. Internet and intranet access to media-rich information, education and entertainment – terminal design will fragment as niche products emerge to serve personalised service needs A business user may need a large screen and keyboard to work on documents and spreadsheets, while a teenage consumer demands extreme portability and high-quality audio reproduction quality to listen to streamed music and video... service providers (W-ASPs) and content providers as well as for the operators themselves Establishing and maintaining customer profiles will be an important activity for 3G operators, and the winners on the world stage will undoubtedly be those capable of building and branding an end-user experience that customers stay loyal to Ultimately, UMTS is not about technology and standards: it is instead about... confidence does the industry have that UMTS will succeed in a marketplace where it will co-exist – in the 1 The views expressed in this section are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of his affiliation entity Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World 543 early years at least – alongside other technologies from GSM to evolved 2.5G systems like GPRS and EDGE? Popular speculation... affordable terminals Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World 545 22.2.3 Taking the Long-term View Worldwide investment in UMTS and 3G is indeed huge, representing an aggregated spend on licenses, network infrastructure and terminal equipment worth hundreds of billions of dollars But when putting these sums into perspective, it must be acknowledged that a UMTS license necessarily represents... of a 3G license of between 15 and 20 years – and longer still in some territories such as Russia – there is ample scope for operators to recoup their investment The world-wide success for UMTS, however, will be driven by services, and research by the UMTS Forum and others suggests that there are in excess of 20 000 companies world-wide developing third generation services and applications This expression... applications This expression of confidence from the IP and content communities underlines the long-term importance of UMTS as a conduit for business and personal communications of all kinds UMTS demands a major change in end-user’s attitudes to their ‘‘mobile phone’’ Primarily a tool for point-to-point communications dominated by voice and SMS, today’s GSM user experience effectively mirrors that of using... Sahara It became the dominant system all over Asia It covers the US and Canada and several South American countries GSM already reached 500 million users in May 2001 GSM networks operate in 168 countries GSM systems serve 69% of all digital mobile users Therefore GSM can bear its name ‘‘Global System for Mobile Communication’’ by right and with pride Acknowledgements Nearly all subscriber figures were...Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World 541 22.1.9 Israel Israel opened a GSM service in the late 1990s At the end of 2000 they had 834 000 users This is 20% of the total number of mobile users in the country 22.1.10 Conclusion During the short period from 1992 to 2000 GSM succeeded in becoming the only digital system used in Western and Central/Eastern Europe, Australia, the Arab World and Africa... fixed-line phone – with the added benefits of mobility and value-added services like voicemail With UMTS, however, the relationship between the customer, network operator and service provider is far more complex Whereas today’s GSM terminals exhibit obvious similarities in terms of form factor, functionality and user interface, terminal equipment for UMTS will offer far greater diversity While ‘‘simple . hand-helds. Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World 533 4 E.g. NMT900 in Scandinavia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and TACS in the UK, Italy and. description of the development in the GSM Associa- tion. Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World 541 Chapter 22: GSM and UMTS Acceptance in the World