Gis application in forest fire risk mapping in tam dao national park vinh phuc province

z MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY STUDENT THESIS GIS APPLICATION IN FOREST FIRE RISK MAPPING IN TAM DAO NATIONAL PARK, VINH PHUC PROVINCE Major: Natural Resources Management (Advanced programme) Faculty: Forest Resources and Environmental Management Student: Pham Duc Dat Student ID: 1553 060244 Class: K60-Natural Resources Management Course: 2015-2019 Advance Education Program Developed in collaboration with Colorado State University, USA Supervisor: Le Thai Son, Msc Ha Noi, 2019 TABLES OF CONTENTS TABLES OF CONTENTS i ABBREVIATION iii TABLE OF TABLES iv TABLE OF FIGURES v TABLE OF MAPS vi I Introduction II Literature review III Goal and objectives 3.1 Goal 3.2 Objectives IV Study area 4.1 Location and boundary 4.2 Topography 4.3 Climate characteristic 4.4 Hydrology 10 4.5 Geology 11 4.6 Traffic 11 4.7 Flammable Forest types 11 V Material and Method 13 5.1 Description of environmental factors 13 5.2 Data analysis 17 A Climate 20 B Vegetation types and topographic variables 21 VI Result and Discussion 24 6.1 Climatic variables results 24 A Maximum temperature 24 B Average temperature 26 i C Precipitation 28 D Solar radiation 29 E Wind speed 31 6.2 Topography variables result 33 A Elevation 33 C Slope 37 D Topographic Wetness Index 39 E Vegetation 41 F Distances from roads 43 VII Conclusion 53 References ii ABBREVIATION Short name ID Real name NWFR F1 Natural woody forest mountain rich land NWFM F2 Natural woody forest mountain medium land NWFP F3 Natural woody forest mountain poor land RWT F4 Regenerating woody trees NS F5 New seedlings are planted RNWFRM F6 Restored natural wood forest in rocky mountains RNWFLM F7 Restore natural wood forest in soil mountain PFH F8 Planted forest on hills NMFWB F9 Natural mixed forest between wood and bamboo NMFBW F10 Natural mixed forest between bamboo and wood NBF F11 Natural bamboo forest in soil mountain PBF F12 Planted bamboo forest in soil mountain NOBFLM F13 Natural other bamboo forest in soil mountain FFRZ Forest fire risk zone iii TABLE OF TABLES Table 5.1 Environmental variables and their ID 13 Table 5.2 GIS raw data used for making forest fire risk map 16 Table 5.3 Ranking meanings to identify forest fire risk levels 17 Table 5.4 Variables and their weights to determine forest risk zone 18 Table 6.1 Maximum temperature indexes 24 Table 6.2 Average temperature indexes 26 Table 6.3 Precipitation indexes 28 Table 6.4 Solar radiation indexes 30 Table 6.5 Wind speed indexes 32 Table 6.6 Elevation indexes 34 Table 6.7 Aspect indexes 36 Table 6.8 Slope indexes 37 Table 6.9 Topographic wetness index 39 Table 6.10 Vegetation types indexes 41 Table 6.11 Distances from roads indexes 43 Table 6.12 Forest fire risk zone indexes 45 iv TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 4.1 Tam Dao National Park location Figure 6.1 Percentage areas of maximum temperature °C 25 Figure 6.2 Percentage areas of average temperature oC 26 Figure 6.3 Percentage areas of precipitation mm 28 Figure 6.4 Percentage of areas of solar radiation 30 Figure 6.5 Percentage of areas of wind speed m/s 32 Figure 6.6 Percentage of areas of elevation 34 Figure 6.7 Percentage areas of aspect 37 Figure 6.8 Percentage of areas of slope 38 Figure 6.9 Percentage area of the Topographic wetness index 39 Figure 6.10 Percentages areas of vegetation types 42 Figure 6.11 Percentage areas of distance from roads 43 Figure 6.12 Percentage area of forest fire risk zones 46 v TABLE OF MAPS Map 6.1 Maximum temperature raster layer 25 Map 6.2 Average temperature layer 27 Map 6.3 Precipitation raster layer 29 Map 6.4 Solar radiation raster layer 31 Map 6.5 Wind speed raster layer 33 Map 6.6 Elevation raster layer 35 Map 6.7 Aspect raster layer 36 Map 6.8 Slope raster layer 38 Map 6.9 Topographic Wetness Index raster layer 40 Map 6.10 Vegetation types raster layer 42 Map 6.11 Distance from road raster layer 44 Map 6.12 Forest fire risk zone map in Tam Dao National Park 46 vi I Introduction From 2017 up to now, there were many forest fires happening in many provinces of Vietnam As in the report of the General Department of Forestry, because of prolonged dry weather and burning activities of local people that have placed many areas of the country at risk of forest fire The consequences of forest fire caused damage to the economy, human life, flora and fauna so leading to ecology imbalance Smoke and dust fly into the air causing environmental pollution, greenhouse effect and climate change That was the result of a research by Georgia Institute of Technology posted on the Nature Geoscience Magazine in 2017, they discovered smoke from forest fires impacted significantly on the atmosphere They found that when Carbon particles released into the air from burnt trees and travel to the upper levels of the atmosphere where they can prevent the sun’s rays, sometimes cooling and warming it at other times After the protection of forest loss, flooding, erosion, landslides might happen In this study, I would like to contribute my effort to evaluate the forest fire risk in Tao Dao national park Forest is one of the most important natural resources on this planet It brings to human many benefits in the real life such as providing medicine for health care, providing foods for both human and animals, producing Oxygen for living things, reducing the risk of natural disasters (e.g: flooding and degradation) Through that, forest protection is necessary and also being a mission that every single person must care about In Vietnam, one of the most threats that cause heavy damage to forests is forest fire According to the latest report of the General Department of Forestry was published in July 2019 forest fires now occurred more frequently and very complicated, especially in the northern and central provinces In the first months of 2019, there were 156 forest fires totally and this number increased 61 cases (more than 64%) compared to the same period in 2018 During this time, the forest area was burned 930 hectares, a significant increase of 705 hectares (higher than times in the same period For example in Hanoi, Thanh Hoa, Thua Thien Hue, Lai Chau, Dien Bien Phu and Nghe An as well The weather was abnormal, hot sunlight in early morning lengthen until the evening, dry prolonged were characteristics make firefighters had difficulty in controlling and extinguishing fires Actually, forest fire still has the positive sides beside the negative effects in case of situations such as regulating plant succession, wildlife habitat, recycling of nutrient, maintaining biological diversity, reducing biomass by killing insects and prevent disease (Assaker et al., 2012) A geographic information system is known as a powerful tool to analyze the data related to geography Using this tool, we can create maps of many places and use functions including images interpretation, analyzing and calculating the data for studying Nowadays, GIS is becoming popular in natural disasters analysis to contribute to the detection and reduce the risk of damage to human life The raster data used in GIS have many advantages of multi-resolution, many types of satelites images The application of GIS in forest fire management and fire warning is completely feasible and meets the practicle need That is the reason I chose this topic to enhance my knowledge and skills in GIS application to assess the forest fire risk in Tam Dao National Park The final result of this study will increase the probability of large scale fire forecasting in Tam Dao National Park when people use it to make a comparison with the result of another study It is also strengthen the capacity of GIS application to serve wildfire management, and improve the ability to decrease the its hazard In this study, I decided to conduct a research entitled "GIS application in forest fire risk assessment in Tam Dao National Park" to evaluate forest fire risk by using environmental factors that usually influence forest fire to classify forest fire points II Literature review Forest fires have caused a massive impact on many countries in the world including Indonesia, China, Brazil, India and Vietnam as examples Forest fires have affected millions of hectares of flora and fauna throughout the world every year (Kanga et al., 2014) Forest fires have negative impacts on natural forest ecosystem processes, it put public safety, property, and other forest values in risk include water and air pollution, biodiversity loss, land degradation, soil erosion, desertification, safety as well as the loss of human life (Assaker et al., 2012) The government of many countries had to spend a big amount of money each year to recover the large area of forest and investing technologies to reduce the risk of forest fire (Acuna et al., 2010) In Vietnam, the percentage of the forest is 41.65% in 2018 as the report of the ministry of agricultural and rural development In the summer, the temperature is approximately 40 ˚C, low humidity makes forest fires easier to occur and more difficult to extinguish the fires that lead to hundreds of hectares loss The latest report of the general department of forestry, forest fires happened from June 26 to July 1, 2019 in the central provinces such as Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Phu Yen with 45 fires caused heavy damage to forests and human life also The estimated loss of forest area was roughly 293 hectares Although spending much of time to planning and training for fire protection but Vietnam still lack of advanced technologies such as forest fire warning system and using helicopters is limited because of the geography of the forest Map 6.11 Distance from road raster layer G Forest fire risk zone map Forest fire risk zone layer of Tam Dao National Park was the result after using the raster calculator tool to calculate 11 variable raster layer above including climatic factors and topography factors After that, it was necessary to reclassify this raster layer to arrange values into the right fire risk ranking The synthesized forest fire risk zone map (Figure 5.12) showed that very high-risk zones mainly distributed in the southwest of the study area which accounted for 16% area and it was nearby the boundary of Tam Dao where is close to roads and residential areas 44 The second dangerous area was high-risk zone, it contributed 26 % of the total area and distributed mainly in the southwest direction There were 34% areas belong to low and very low-risk regions, they distributed in the central and southeast area of the study site The medium and low-risk areas accounted for 49% area of the study site, they were distributed in the central and southeast of the National Park From figure 5.12 above, the white regions had no risk of forest fire occurrence because they were mainly bare land, agriculture land of indigenous people and water bodies also In short, the percentages of dangerous areas and low risk were quite balanced Finally, the forest fire risk zone map was very useful in determining forest fire risk of every area with a combination among influencing climatic, topographic factors and vegetation types in fire season Table 6.12 Forest fire risk zone indexes Value Fire rating class Area 93 - 152 38164 152 - 172 78627 172 - 192 91008 192 - 213 82133 213 - 269 56337 45 Figure 6.12 Percentage area of forest fire risk zones 16% 11% 93 - 152 152 - 172 23% 172 - 192 192 - 213 24% 213 - 269 26% Map 6.12 Forest fire risk zone map in Tam Dao National Park 46 The result demonstrated a correlation among climatic factors, topographic factors and vegetation types that contribute to forest fire occurrence in the study site in fire season, the most dangerous fire risk areas accounted for 16% area and they might happen in the lowest altitude places where are nearby roads, residential areas Thereby, we can have a detail plan to deal with specific areas for fire fighting There is a model namely combustion triangle, it is made for understanding the correlations between necessary ingredients for most fires It illustrates three main elements that really need to be ignited including fuels, heat and Oxygen In this study, I chose eleven factors that contain three elements above when maximum temperature, average temperature and solar radiation represent for heat While wind speed represents for Oxygen and vegetation symbolize for fuels Other factors such as precipitation, distances from roads, elevation, aspect, slope and topographic wetness index are additional factors to understand more how they affect to fire ignition and fire spread in order to produce an exact forest fire risk zone The results met the expectations when created successfully raster layers of influencing factors for establishing the synthesize fire risk zone map with levels of fire risk rating As other research results I have mentioned, it was very clear to identify specific areas that were classified by fire risk levels As the regulations on forest fire forecasting levels in Vietnam from 2018, there are levels present for forest fire risk so in this study I followed this to have a unification From that, people who read my results can compare with other study for checking During the data analysis process, using the natural break method for classification variables was a good choice because many researchs chosed it as the main method because the advantage of this method is to arrange a set of values into natural classes so it is different when compared with manual method 47 After that, the result showed the most dangerous areas accounted for higher than 20% and if compare with 16% area of the most dangerous areas, the previous result was much higher and not true with the circumstances of Tam Dao National Park Thus, I used the manual method to classify the data instead of the previous one to set up classes of values that I assume was more appropriate Every environmental factor are important in making forest fire happen, lack of one of them will lead to an imbalance in forest fire assessment and the result will not reliable The weight used for variables in this study aims to access how important they are and according to the references of her research with the same methodology and based on my knowledge In the mathematic equation to calculate FFRZ map, climatic variables with distances from roads, topographic variables and vegetation types were applied 5, and 10 as their weights respectively There were 13 vegetation types, mixed forest types between wood and bamboo have highest flammable while rich natural wood forests types are less likely to be burned Vegetation considers the flammability of each forest types, fire rating level was appointed to F1 and F2 forest types, they are rich and medium natural wood forest in the mountain because very hard to be burned Fire rating level was appointed to F3, it is a poor natural wood forest in the mountain because of less likely to be burned Level was appointed to regenerating woody trees (F4) and new-planted seedlings (F5) because of medium fire risk Level was appointed to the restored natural wood forest in rocky (F6) and soil mountain (F7) and planted forest on hills (F8) because of high fire risk Level was appointed to natural mixed forest between wood and bamboo (F9), natural mixed forest between bamboo and wood (F10), natural bamboo forest in soil mountain (F11), planted bamboo forest in soil mountain (F12), natural other bamboo forest in soil mountain (F13) because of very high fire risk 48 Topographic factors have a second biggest weight index because these factors impact on fire ignition and its spread Climatic factors can make forest fire occur but topographic factors will make it more dangerous after that, which is the reason they were appointed weight Elevation has close relationships with temperature and solar radiation because it is colder at a higher elevation but areas receive more heat from the sun than that in the downhill Aspect is the direction of slope and it decides which side will receive more heat from the sun than other so it contributes to the percentage of causing fire ignition For example, the southern and western directions will have more heat than the north and east directions The slope can make fire move rapidly with additional factor is wind speed in the dry season TWI is affected by water flow areas where water moves deeper into the ground from the land surface and make the surrounding soil wet in a period of time Elevation variable was classified with the highest fire rating level of lower than 150m and the lowest level was higher than 600m I would like to analyze how the ranges of 150 meters of each level contributed to a fire risk zone Slope variable was classified with the range of approximately 10 degrees of each fire rating level except level when it was set up 15 to 30 degree because this is a slight slope I would like to analyze how slope affected to forest fire risk zone with this arrangement Aspect variable was classified based on fire rating levels according to directions, they are north, east, south and west side Each direction was 90 degree, the northern receive the most heat from the sun and the next following are the western, eastern and northern That was the reason when the southern was appointed fire rating level 4, western was level 3, eastern was level and north was level Distances from roads variable were classified with the lowest fire rating level of further than 800 meters and the highest level was closer than 200 49 meters There was a subtractive 200 meters range decreased after each level and they were set up to analyze how these distances contributed to FFRZ in the study site TWI is affected by water flow areas where water moves deeper into the ground from the land surface and make the surrounding soil wet in a period of time The way to classify TWI based on a manual method but before that, I have consulted a natural break (Jenk) method to see how I should arrange values into a fire risk rating level As the result of the natural break method, it showed that the lowest fire risk level have the wetness index was from 9.884759 to 17.217867, and the highest fire risk level was less than According to that arrangement, I decided to set the range of less than was assigned to fire risk level and the range of bigger than 9.884759 was marked as fire risk level The central range from to 9.884759 was divided by equilibrium, to represent for fire risk level 4, to represent for level and to 9.884759 represent for level The weather factors are unpredictable, they contribute mainly to fire ignition and preheat fuels in the study area Tmax and Tavg consider the temperature of a particular area in a month and with high temperature, they can heat up the fuel so increase the flammability Precipitation is the amount of rainfall in a month, with high rainfall it will decrease the fire risk but high temperature can make the evaporation process faster Solar radiation is the amount of heat that a region can receive from the sun, a huge amount of heat will dry fuels faster Wind speech contributes on making evaporation process become faster so increase the flammability of fuels In short, only precipitation factor can decrease the percentage of forest fire occurrence while other factors make it worst The possibility of fire occurrence from the road is quite high because of burning activities of local people such as using fire for cooking nearby the roads, heating in the forest, hunting animals, collecting honey, 50 shifting cultivation, burning for clear roads, burning grassland for livestock In short, because of these reasons and based on other articles methodology I have consulted so I decided to apply weight for them Maximum temperature variable was classified with the lowest fire rating level of less than 22 Celsius degree and the highest level was more than 23.5 Celsius degree In general, an additional 0.5 Celsius degree increased after each level I would like to observe how the 0.5-degree difference of each level would impacted on the risk of wildfire occurrence Average temperature variable was classified with the lowest fire rating level of less than 18 Celsius degree and the highest level was greater than 19.5 degree In general, an additional 0.5 degree increased after each level was used to evaluate how it impacted on fire risk zone Precipitation variable was classified with the lowest fire rating level of greater than 60 mm/day and the highest level was less than 56 mm/day A subtractive mm/day decreased after each level was used to assess how it contributed to forest fire occurrence Solar radiation variable was classified with approximately an additional 100 kJ m2/day increase from fire rating level to 5, I would like to observe how each range impacted on fire occurrence Wind speed variable was classified with the lowest fire rating level of slower than 1.6 m/s and the highest level was faster than 1.9 m/s There was an additional 0.1 m/s increased after each level and it was used to analyze how each range affected to fire occurrence This study has contributed to forest fire risk mapping in Tam Dao National Park with datas which were gotten from WorldClim 2.0 and Aster Global DEM There were eleven variables totally including climatic factors and topographic factors which were used to produce FFRZ map, this study showed 51 how to apply the raw datas build the data set and analyze them by using manual method for classification in ArcGIS and using the mathematic equation with weights of variables to calculate all of the raster layers Through that, the results of every raster layers in this study can be used as a reference for another researchs to make the comparisons The forest fire risk zone map will play an important role to help Tam Dao National rangers in preparing forest fire fighting plan in specific areas In the introduction part, I have mentioned about the numbers of burnt forest areas happened in Nghe An, Thanh Hoa, Thua Thien Hue, Dien Bien Phu as the examples which were provided by the department of agriculture and rural development These datas proved that forest fire can be happened by many reasons and its consequences will affect human life, environment and animals so people should care about the forest fire threats This study was conducted with the purpose to produce the FFRZ map of Tam Dao National Park where is one of the most important ecosystems in the north of Vietnam, and the result contributed a clearer understanding of forest fire situation in the study site so it deserves to receive the attention of people This research used climatic datas from WorldClim 2.0 for 1970 – 2000 aims to apply them to produce FFRZ map in the study site, and I suppose it limited the reliability of the final result It would be better if I can use a lastest source of data because they will be more accurate with climate conditions today The core value of the FFRZ map in Tam Dao National Park is to illustrates the percentages area of fire risk rating levels in the dry season and their distribution Through that, I would like to suggest some fire prevention solutions as follows 1) Firefighting plans and types of equipment should be prepared before November every year 52 2) The ranger team should focus the most on the southwest areas that are very high-risk zone for monitoring and management 3) Building fire danger rating areas boards to let people know what is happening in the fire season 4) Raising public awareness and educational programs for local people before fire season and during that time 5) Building silvicultural works such as fire resistance ways, they should be ready before the fire season and repaired during that time VII Conclusion The methodology achieved this study’s objectives and the approach was successfully applied for producing FFRZ map in the study site There were 11 factors used for evaluation forest fire risk in Tam Dao National Park, they are arranged in the following order of importance that based on their weight: Vegetation, elevation, aspect, slope, TWI, distances from roads, maximum temperature; average temperature; wind speed, solar radiation and precipitation Every raster layers of variables above were created successfully with the resolution was 30x30m and coordinate system was WGS_1984_ UTM_Zone_48N The importance of every factors were considered by their weights, vegetation factor got 10 while the group of elevation, aspect, slope, topographic wetness indexes factors got and the group of maximum temperature, average temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, precipitation, distance from roads factors got The result showed 16% area in the very high-risk zone, 24% area in highrisk region, 49% area in the medium and low-risk zone and 11% area appeared 53 with the lowest fire risk ArcGIS tool is really useful in forest fire mapping to evaluate the risk in 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forecasting in Tam Dao National Park. .. of Thai Nguyen province Tam Dao National Park N/A boundary Tam Polygon Dao National Park N/A N/A Tam Dao GCS_VN_2000 Boundary National Park traffic roads Tamdao National Park Polyline N/A Polygon... calculate indexes representing the forest fire risk of the study area, and forest fire risk mapping IV Study area 4.1 Location and boundary Tam Dao national park is located entirely on Tam Dao mountain