Objectives of research: The thesis is done to clarify the changes in India - Myanmar relations in the political and economic fields from 1991 to 2017. On that basis, the thesis analyzes the impact of this relationship for each country, region and draw features of the IndiaMyanmar relationship during this period.
MINISTRY OF TRAINING AND EDUCATION VINH UNIVERSITY ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ PHAN THI CHAU POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN INDIA AND MYANMAR FROM 1991 TO 2017 SUMMARY OF THE DOCTORAL THESIS OF HISTORY NGHE AN, 2020 THE THESIS WAS COMPLETED AT VINH UNIVERSITY Scientific Supervisors: ASSOC PROF DR VAN NGOC THANH DR LE THE CUONG Examiner 1: Examiner 2: Examiner 3: The thesis is defended before the Ph.D Thesis Evaluation Council at the University level in Vinh University Time: h dated ./ / This thesis is available for the purpose of reference at: - National Library of Vietnam; - Center of Nguyen Thuc Hao Library, Vinh University Introduction Rationale India and Myanmar are two neighboring countries that have a long-standing cultural, historical and ethnic relationship, have a long land and sea border in the Bengal Bay, it is of strategic importance to the entire East - South Asia region Myanmar is a country in Southeast Asia but it has a border with both major countries that are India and China, lying on the important road towards the east of India, and the road towards the Indian Ocean of China Because of that, the history of this country has been deeply influenced by the strategic competition of major countries Seeing the India - Myanmar relationship in the perspective of a relationship with a long history and culture, but as an asymmetric relationship between a large country and a small country, interwoven various beneficial factors has attracted the attention of many researchers on the history of international relations The relationship of India and Myanmar was officially established when the Friendship Treaty was signed in 1951 By 1991, after 40 years, the India-Myanmar relationship, despite experiencing many ups and downs, also left many marks in the development of two countries The study of the India-Myanmar relationship from 1991 to 2017 aims to further delve deeper into a traditional neighborly relationship, between a large country and a small country, clearly reflecting the mix of national interests and human rights democratic values have profound scientific and practical significance India's policy towards Myanmar has undergone radical changes since the coup and the establishment of the military regime in Myanmar on 08 August 1988 India, along with Western countries, condemned the military regime and implemented an embargo against Myanmar The socio-political situation in Myanmar was always unstable, the closed policy along with the US and Western embargo and sanctions made Myanmar separate from the world, even when Myanmar was recognized as a member of ASEAN in 1997 Since 2003, Myanmar has entered the democratic reform process according to the 7-Step Roadmap and initially achieved positive results The international community had begun to turn to support Myanmar, creating a strategic competition between the major countries in this country The study of the India-Myanmar relationship in the context of sweeping changes in Myanmar and India's policy as a regional power towards Myanmar had profound scientific implications China's increasing influence in Myanmar, especially after 1988, created strategic concern for India Therefore, the Indian Government over the periods had made step- by-step efforts to change policy with Myanmar after 1991, building a comprehensive relationship with Myanmar, including politics and economy For Myanmar, the process of democratic reform and national development needed the support of a big neighboring country as important as India The growing dependence on China required Myanmar's rulers to seek a balance in their relations with major countries Researching this relationship on the political and economic fields to understand the nature and the need for benefits from both India and Myanmar, in the context of China's unpeaceful rise was essential Since 1991, India has shifted its foreign policy toward new strategic considerations with a focus on Look East Policy, followed by Act East Myanmar is a strategically important neighbor on the road towards the East of India As a member of ASEAN in 1997 and joining into the most of regional cooperation mechanisms, Myanmar has become a gateway country on the road to Southeast Asia and Asia Pacific Ocean - a region of most dynamically development in the world in the twenty-first century of India Study about this relationship from 1991 to 2017 in order to better understand the manifestation of India's Look East/Act East Policy on a particular country On the other hand, Myanmar shares borders with the sensitive northeastern states of India Myanmar has a border with China and India, creating an unstable Tjunction in politics and security The relationship between two countries has always had potential instability factors for many years related to reactionary political forces, border disputes, drug crimes Research on the India-Myanmar relationship aims to shed light on the development of bilateral relations and how to resolve disagreements to develop with high scientific and practical significance On that basis, studying the relationship between India and Myanmar from 1991 to 2017 in order to draw evocative lessons for Vietnam in the relationship among major countries Stemming from the above reasons, we choose the research topic of the thesis as “Political and economic relations between India and Myanmar from 1991 to 2017” Subject, objects of research 2.1 Subject of research The thesis systematically and objectively reproduces on the process of political and economic relations between India and Myanmar in the period 1991 - 2017, thereby drawing out the characteristics of this relationship 2.2 Objects of research Time: The thesis focuses on research: “Political and economic relations between India and Myanmar from 1991 to 2017”, that was, since India adjusted its foreign policy, including the Look East Policy and the initial change in policy towards Myanmar; Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visiting to Myanmar in September 2017 marked a strong shift in the bilateral relationship in many fields Space: The research space of the thesis is mainly two subjects: India and Myanmar However, because the political and economic relations of India - Myanmar in the period 1991 - 2017 were also influenced by other subjects, so the research space mentioned was the Asian - Pacific Ocean regional context (understood in a broad sense including Asian countries and Pacific coastal countries) Contents: The thesis researches on India - Myanmar relations from 1991 to 2017, in which mainly focuses on the research of bilateral relations on the main fields of politics (diplomatic politics, national security politics) and economics (focusing on two main areas: trade in goods, investment) Relations between two countries in multilateral forums and relations in other fields such as society, culture are mentioned under the perspective of reference in order to clarify the tasks that the thesis seted out Regarding the use of the name "Myanmar" in the thesis: In 1989, the ruling Military Council changed the country name in English from "Burma" into "Myanmar" This change is still not accepted by many groups of Myanmar people because they not accept the legitimacy of the military government The United States, Australia, Ireland and Great Britain continue to use the name "Burma", while the European Union uses both The United Nations uses the name "Myanmar" In order to ensure consistency, not to have political significance in using the name, the thesis will use the official name as Myanmar in the text The term of “Burma” will only be written in certain historical contexts prior to 1988 or in citations In addition to the research object, limitations of time, space, contents mentioned above, other issues are not within the scope of the thesis research Objectives and task of research 3.1 Objectives of research The thesis is done to clarify the changes in India - Myanmar relations in the political and economic fields from 1991 to 2017 On that basis, the thesis analyzes the impact of this relationship for each country, region and draw features of the IndiaMyanmar relationship during this period 3.2 Task of research The thesis defines the task: - Analysis of factors affecting India - Myanmar relations from 1991 to 2017 - Comprehensive and systematic rehabilitation of the India-Myanmar political and economic relations from 1991 to 2017 - Draw comments on the characteristics of the bilateral relationship and its impacts on India, Myanmar in particular and the region in general Material sources used in the thesis Within the permissible limits and capabilities, the thesis is researched on the basis of objective and reliable documents including: - Original documents including: agreements, protocols, joint declarations, treaties, agreements signed between the Government, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India for Myanmar; Statistical reports, annual reports of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India, speeches and statements of senior leaders of India and Myanmar about India - Myanmar relations posted on official websites of Government of India, Government of Myanmar - The special references, official website's news page of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India and Myanmar, Embassies and Consulates of two countries, Vietnam News Agency, the official websites of Government of Vietnam,… - Monographs and research references at domestice and abroad on Southeast Asia, Myanmar, India and India-Myanmar relations have been published - Scientific works, articles published in specialized journals; proceedings of scientific seminars; thesis and dissertations related to India and Myanmar relations have been publishe Research methodology The thesis is done on the basis of Marxist-Leninist methodology, grasping thoroughly the Party and State's views on Vietnam's foreign policy The thesis uses the specialized research method which is the historical method combined with the logical method on the basis of the Indian approach With these methods, the India - Myanmar political and economic relationship will be reappeared through the analysis of specific events, through each period in a logical and coherent manner In addition, this is a topic both historical and research on international relations, so during the process of implementation, the author also applies a combination of interdisciplinary scientific research methods such as : Methods of synthesis, analysis, comparison and methods of studying international relations to objectively and scientifically reproduce the India - Myanmar relationship from 1991 to year 2017 and the multidimensional and comprehensive reviews of study subjects Contribution of the thesis The thesis is a work that researches and analyzes systematically the economic and political relations between India and Myanmar from 1991 to 2017 according to the key issues: the influencing factors; contents and performance of the bilateral relationship in the political and economic field; thereby drawing the characteristics of the bilateral relationship and its impacts on India, Myanmar in particular and the region in general In the current context, Myanmar holds an important position in the process of implementing India's Look East and Act East Policy Therefore, the study and restoration of the India - Myanmar political and economic relationship from 1991 to 2017 clearly recognizes the foreign policy and trends, position of India and Myanmar in international relations, the nature of this relationship Thus, it contributes to providing scientific evidence for Vietnam's external practice, especially in the context of complex fluctuations of the geopolitical environment, economy in the region and the world The thesis is a reference in teaching and researching on international relations, foreign policy related to India and Myanmar Organization of the thesis Besides the introduction, conclusion, references and appendices, the main content of the thesis is divided into chapters: Chapter Literature Review Chapter Factors affecting the India-Myanmar political and economic relations from 1991 to 2017 Chapter India - Myanmar relations in the political and economic field from 1991 to 2017 Chapter Impacts and characteristics of the India - Myanmar political and economic relations from 1991 to 2017 Chapter LITERATURE REVIEW Political and economic relations between India - Myanmar has been interested in research by domestic and foreign scholars at different levels On the basis of accessible documents and works, we realize that this issue has been mentioned in some ways as follows: 1.1 Research situation in foreign countries 1.1.1 Studies on foreign policy of India and Myanmar The works referring to the foreign policy of India are quite diverse, in which, with special emphasis on the Look East/Act East Policy Typical as: Khriezo Yhome, India’s ‘Look East’ Policy - the Emerging Discourse (FPRC Journal, No.8, Foreign Policy Research Centre, New Delhi, India, 2011); A.Sundaram, Look East Policy (International Journal of Advancements in Research and Technology Volume 2, Issue 5, 2013); Baladas Ghoshal, Some New Thoughts on India’s Look East Policy (IPCS Issue Brief, No.54, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi, India, 2007; Grareth Price, India’s Policy towards Burma (Asia ASP 2013/02, Chatham House, London, 2013),… These works through foreign policy presentations that refer to Myanmar's place in the foreign policy of India The research works on Myanmar's foreign policy have also been approached such as: Challenges to Democratization in Burma: Perspectives on Multilateral and Bilateral Responses, (2001); Lintner, Bertil, Burmar and Its Neighbours, (1998); Azman Ayob (2015), Myanmar in India’s Intertwined Idealism - Realism, Foreign Policy: A “Modified Structuralism Perspective”; Bihbu Prasad Routray (2019), Difence Diplomacy between India and Myanmar; Fahmida Ashraf (2007), IndiaMyanmar relations… In which, relations with India are mentioned either in history/or as a factor in the democratization process in Myanmar This is an important basis for us to analyze the impact of factors on India Myanmar relations in the political and economic fields 1.1.2 The study refers to the relations of India - Myanmar As two neighboring countries with many similarities in history, culture, foreign policy, the relationship between India and Myanmar has been studied by a large number of foreign scholars Basically, the research works of foreign scholars that the author has access to provide a panorama of the bilateral relations in the political and economic fields from after independence to 2015 Typical as: Bibhu Prasad Routray (2011), IndiaMyanmar Relations: Triumph of Pragmatism; Fahmida Ashraf (2007), India- Myanmar relations; Gottschlich, Pierre (2015), “New Developments in IndiaMyanmar Bilateral Relations; Institute of Social Sciences (2015), India-Myanmar Relations Looking from the Border; K.Yhome (2009), India-Myanmar Relations (1998 - 2008):A Decade of Redefining Bilateral Ties; P.Gottschlich (2015), “New Developments in India-Myanmar Bilateral Relations?”; Sing M (2012): India and Myanmar: A partnership for Progress and Regional Devolopment… These works, in general, are still general and have not gone into political and economic relations since and after 1991 and have also not mentioned much about the period of strong transition of the bilateral relationship after 2012 1.2 Research situation in Vietnam 1.2.1 The study refers to foreign policy of India and Myanmar In Vietnam, there have been elaborate studies, outlining the main characteristics as well as the adjustments in India's foreign policy towards AsiaPacific, Southeast Asia and Myanmar from after the Cold War to 2016 Typical as: Ngo Xuan Binh (2019), Adjusting India's foreign policy under Prime Minister N Modi; Hoang Thi Minh Hoa (2012), “The foreign policy of India and Southeast Asia in the period 1991 - 2010 and its impact”; Tran Thi Ly (editor, 2002), Policy adjustments of the Republic of India from 1991 to 2000; Nguyen Thi Que, Dang Dinh Tien (2017), India’s foreign policy in the early twenty-first century; Nguyen Trường Sơn (2015), The East-facing policy is a major strategy of India; Nguyen Thi Minh Thao (2015), India: from "Look East" policy to "Act East" policy”; Tran Nam Tien (2016), India with Southeast Asia in the new international context; Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (2018), Proceedings of International Conference, the Rise of India and Impacts on Regional Security Architecture; Vo Xuan Vinh (2013), ASEAN in India's Look East Policy… Studies on Myanmar's foreign policy or general studies on Myanmar are not diverse and rich, but they have also highlighted the open trend in Myanmar's foreign policy in a number of works such as: Van Trung Hieu (2013), “Reform and open up in Myanmar”; Chu Cong Phung (editor, 2011), History and present of Myanmar; Man Huyen Sam (2013), “Democratic Reform in Myanmar: Causes and Impacts”; Vu Quang Thien (2007), “Myanmar's position”; Vo Xuan Vinh (Editor, 2015), Political and economic changes in Myanmar from 2011 to present: Context, content and impact… 1.2.2 The works directly related to the India - Myanmar political and economic relations In Vietnam, there have been a number of works mentioning this relationship such as: Nguyen Tuan Binh (2016), “India - Myanmar relations in the oil and gas sector in the early years of the twenty-first century”; Nguyen Tuan Binh, Dang Van Chuong (2017), “The foreign policy of India towards Myanmar in the period 1962 1992: From Idealism to Realism”; Nguyen Tuan Binh (2017), India - Myanmar Relations (1962-2011), World History Thesis; Nguyen Thi Dung (2012) “Political relations between India and Myanmar in the period 1991 to 2011”; Phung Thi Thao (2019), “Relations between India and Myanmar under the rule of Prime Minister Narendra Modi”… According to the personal approach, no monograph has conducted a systematic study on the political and economic relations between India and Myanmar from 1991 to 2017 Most research works either collectively, or individually in some certain fields However, that is an important basis for the thesis to restore and explain more deeply the relationship of two countries 1.3 Comment on the research situation and problems that the thesis should focus on solving 1.3.1 The issues have been studied After surveying research works in Vietnam and abroad according to the above problem groups, the author found that the problems have been studied by domestic and foreign scientists, including: Regarding Indian foreign policy, many studies have mentioned India's foreign policy in general and pay special attention to the Look East Policy In these works, Myanmar's position is generally seen as a country with an important position, a neighboring country, connecting India with ASEAN in the overall foreign policy of India Regarding Myanmar's foreign policy, the works mainly presented on the process of democratization and the open-door policy of Myanmar, the views and penetration of major countries into Myanmar according to the process of democratic reform In it, India is also mentioned with many single aspects, mainly its stance and position in Myanmar's foreign policy Regarding the political and economic relationship between India and Myanmar, there are many domestic and foreign works researching the relationship of India with Myanmar and achieving remarkable results Accordingly, a number of works have analyzed the factors affecting the change in two-country relationship, the progression of that relationship in some separate fields such as political relations, cooperation in border development, economy, defense Researches are concentrated in the period after two countries gained their independence until 1991 and the period 1991 to before 2012, when the democratic reform process in Myanmar was basically completed The research achievements on India - Myanmar relations are an important 11 2.1.3 The impact of the Chinese factor The rise of China and its global ambitions have a profound impact on IndiaMyanmar relations Myanmar's important position on the road towards the Indian Ocean of China pushes it to penetrate deeply into Myanmar after decades This urges the Indian Government to change its policy with Myanmar to ensure its strategic position in Southeast Asia The desire to step by step get rid of dependence on China also forces Myanmar to change foreign policy with major countries, including India 2.2 Overview of India - Myanmar relations before 1991 India and Myanmar are two countries with a long historical cultural relationship During the colonial period, Myanmar is part of India, all of which are British colonies After two countries won their independence, the relationship between two countries had many ups and downs After a period of close relations (1948 - 1962), General Ne Win's military coup in 1962 pushed the relationship between two countries into a slowdown stage and somewhat cold The event on August 1988 pushed the relations between two countries more and more tense until 1991 when India took a stance against the military government's suppression of the democracy movement in Myanmar The legacy of such a predestined relationship requires two countries to need a process of dismissing disagreements, prompting a search for a common voice in the post -1991 period 2.3 Political, economic and social situation of India and Myanmar's position in India's foreign policy (1991 - 2017) 2.3.1 An overview of the political, economic and social situation of India before 2017 After being granted independence from the British, India gradually developed, asserted the position of a major country in the region and played an important role in the situation of two poles and the cold war, being the backbone of the movement without affiliating and reputable in the third world In the late 80's of the twentieth century, India fell into a total crisis The collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe made India lose its economic, political and defense support, and at the same time undermining the position and role of India in the international arena Against this background, in July 1991, India carried out economic reforms and adjusted foreign policy towards more pragmatic direction, clearly defined the policy focus with neighboring countries, implemented the the Look East Policy/Act East Policy, change policy with major countries, regions and economic centers around the world Since then, India has had a strong development, its position and role in the international arena have been gradually confirmed 2.3.2 Myanmar in India’s foreign policy The key strategic geographic location, the wealth of natural resources, the 12 stability and development of India's Northeast, as well as the competitive issue of Chinese influence in Myanmar have brought Myanmar to position as a focus in India's foreign policy The need to improve and tighten relations with Myanmar has become India's own demand on the way to the East and affirmed the position of a major country of this country in Southeast Asia and the world 2.4 The political, economic and social situation in Myanmar and the position of India in Myanmar's foreign policy (1991-2017) 2.4.1 The political, economic and social situation in Myanmar before 2017 After gaining national independence from the British colonialists in 1948, Burma's economic, political and social situation was always in a state of instability On August 1988, people of Yangoon capital took to the streets to protest on a large scale (also known as the 8888 Event) and was bloody suppressed by the government leading to the establishment of the " State Law and Order Restoration Council " (SLORC) The 8888 event and uprising continued to put Myanmar into a period of prolonged instability under the leadership of the military government This event led to a prolonged state of unrest Since August 2003, Myanmar started implementing a 7-step democratic reform roadmap to build a democratic state, integration, national reconciliation, economic development and national construction This process was basically completed in 2011, marking the transformation of Myanmar, improving its image and gradually integrating into the region and the world 2.4.2 The position of India in Myanmar's foreign policy The effects of the domestic situation, and the attitudes of the US and Western countries following the 8888 event in Myanmar had forced the country to lean toward and increasingly dependent on China After the democratic reform process, the Myanmar Government has made adjustments in its foreign policy towards opening up and diversifying foreign relations for stability and development As a large country in the region and its neighbors had many debts, Myanmar has identified India's important position in the process of open-door reform Promoting relations with India and Myanmar will not only solve domestic and border political security issues, but also gradually reduce dependence on China, get rid of isolation, improve their image on the international arena, create conditions for socio-economic development of the country 13 Chapter REAL SITUATION OF INDIA - MYANMAR RELATION IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FIELDS FROM 1991 TO 2017 3.1 Security and political relations 3.1.1 Political-diplomatic relations After a tense period after the 8888 uprising, since 1991 with the inception of the Look East Policy, India-Myanmar relations had gradually been re-established With the efforts of the governments of two countries, the political relationship between India and Myanmar in the period from 1991 to 2017 had seen remarkable changes Relationship process went through phases: In the period from 1991 to 2000, two sides had 10 meetings at the deputy minister level or more, in which, including a visit by two presidents in 2006 with the policy of "constructive engagement" of India During the period from 2000 to 2014, two countries' political relations witnessed strong developments, especially since the visit of the President of India in 2011 and the Prime Minister of India in May 2012 (the next visit a 25-year hiatus since 1987); This was the period when India implemented a pragmatic policy, prioritizing economic interests - it meant supporting the military government to implement reforms, thereby promoting the development of the bilateral relationship In the period from 2014 to 2017 with the Look East policy, high-level meetings from Deputy Ministers and higher level took place continuously, many times higher From 2014 to 2017 in just years but two countries had had 11 high-level visits, including four official and informal visits by the Prime Minister of India to Myanmar The diplomatic exchanges between two countries were getting thicker and thicker, showing the importance of two countries in the strategy of expanding and developing the partnership of each party, as well as in the overall development strategy of each country The mechanism of delegation exchange and bilateral meetings took place regularly at all levels, especially high-level visits between two countries Two countries had gradually improved the legal basis through the signing of many Agreements and deals in most areas Despite the changes, the Indian-Myanmar political relationship during this period was also dominated by democracy in Myanmar Before Myanmar's democratic reform in 2011, the visits of two countries' senior leaders were very limited After the successful reform of Myanmar in 2010, the visit from the prime minister level between wo countries was resumed and it was also the opening milestone for the next series of high-level visits 3.1.2 Security and defense relations Defense security relations are one of the key areas in India and Myanmar's 14 bilateral relationship From 1991 to 2017, security and defense relations between two countries were strengthened in many different forms and contents, such as high-level visits by military leaders of two countries, strengthening cooperation on military technology, practing and training of soldiers, transferring weapons, joint exercises, expanding cooperation contents on defense strategy as well as strengthening and expanding cooperation against terrorism and border security Security and defense cooperation between two countries is increasingly diversified and strengthened, bringing practical and long-term benefits to both countries such as contributing to strengthening and ensuring security in the border area, strengthening defense capacity and step by step building security and defense strategies, and resisting external strategic pressures… However, the achievements in security and defense cooperation between two countries are still in the early stages, mainly from the Indian side to Myanmar; India's balance of defense presence towards Myanmar compared to China is still skewed; There are still some difficulties and challenges in security and defense of two countries such as border security, smuggling, trade in weapons, counterterrorism, piracy.… Although there are some shortcomings in defense and security relations between India and Myanmar, however, the benefits gained by two countries have also contributed to strengthening bilateral relations 3.2 Economic relations 3.2.1 Changes in economic cooperation mechanism From the absence of a cooperation mechanism, India - Myanmar signed the Border Trade Agreement (21 January 1994), forming a government-level cooperation mechanism through the Joint Trade Commission (JTC) under the chairmanship of the Trade Ministers of two countries (2003); establishment of the Joint Forum on Trade Investment and Border Trade Commission (2012); establishment of India - Myanmar Joint Consultancy Committee (JCC, 2014) Although the cooperation mechanisms established before 2012, it were still loose in terms of goals and ineffective operation, but after two countries' political relations strongly developed, the cooperation mechanisms changed dramatically and initially proved their effectiveness with trade and investment values The bustle of investment activities has created extensive cooperation mechanisms at many levels from the government level to the sector level and in many areas of two countries' economic relations In particular, the active role of the Indian government is clearly shown, creating an important driving force for the bilateral relationship 3.2.2 Trade relations Trade relations between India and Myanmar from 1991 to 2017 tend to increase, but the level has not been steady over the years From 1990 to 2004, two countries' 15 trade turnover was quite modest because in this period, two countries just reestablished their relations after a long cold period, and the cooperation mechanisms in trade activities of two countries are still limited, so they cannot promote the development of trade relations between both sides From 2004 to 2014, basically the India-Myanmar bilateral trade got better From 2014 to 2017, during the first term of Prime Minister N Modi, two countries' trade relations were pushed to a new level Total trade turnover increased steadily and stayed above USD billion The balance of import-export in the previous period when India was always in trade deficit, in this period, India started to have trade surplus Regarding the structure of goods, besides a few common consumer goods such as confectionery, cigarettes, all kinds of milk, products of textile and garment industry the majority of Indian goods exported to Myanmar are those for industrial development such as iron and steel, mineral oil, railway equipment, machinery, chemicals, oil and mining equipment… Not only did these goods richer over time, but also increased in quantity Meanwhile, products exported to India by Myanmar are mainly consumer goods such as beans, wood, coffee, rice The difference in the structure of goods, leading to the balance of import and export between two countries has asymmetry and India is always in a state of trade deficit Trade cooperation has accelerated bilateral relations in both government and frontier trade India - Myanmar trade relations in the period 1991 - 2017 had many quite strong changes, proving the attractiveness of a potential market, but also placed Myanmar at the center of strategic competition among major countries 3.2.3 Investment In investment, India's investment items in Myanmar are concentrated in transportation and infrastructure, oil and hydroelectricity Investment programs aimed at industries that are key to the development of Myanmar's economy such as oil, electricity, railway and infrastructure projects aims to promote the development of economic relations between two countries, especially cross-border projects such as India - Myanmar - Thailand highway, Kaladan multimodal transport project… However, the Indian investment position in Myanmar is still quite modest, only ranked 9th out of the 12 top investment capital countries in this country In particular, the India - Myanmar investment relationship is one-way, mainly from India to Myanmar, and although there are from Myanmar to India, but very little Although there are still shortcomings such as India with one-way investment fundamentally, the amount of capital is not large, the progress of project promotion was slow in the period 1991 - 2017 but the results were very positive, especially in the field infrastructure construction and human resource training 16 Chapter IMPACT, CHARACTERISTICS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIA - MYANMAR FROM 1991 TO 2017 4.1 The impact of the India - Myanmar political and economic relations for each country and the region 4.1.1 For India First, the development of the India-Myanmar relationship between 1991 and 2017 has profoundly influenced the realization of the goals of India's Look East / Act East policy Second, promoting relations with Myanmar contributes into the socio-economic development and stability of the Northeastern states of India Third, developing relations with Myanmar contributes into strengthening India's influence in Myanmar in particular, Southeast Asia and Asia in general, on that basis, limiting the influence of China which has been penetrating deeply into Myanmar and the region 4.1.2 For Myanmar First, through cooperation with India, Myanmar's economy has made positive changes, contributed to bringing Myanmar into the development of the region and the world Second, cooperation with India contributes to limiting Chinese influence, promoting democracy in Myanmar, bringing Myanmar out of isolation and integrating into the common development of the region and the world 4.1.3 For the region First, the good development of the India - Myanmar relationship directly contributes to creating a common environment of peace and stability in Southeast Asia and Asia - Pacific Second, the tightening of relations between Myanmar and India has a great impact on international relations in Southeast Asia, the Asia-Pacific region 4.2 Characteristics of the India - Myanmar political and economic relationship from 1991 to 2017 Firstly, although India-Myanmar political and economic relations from 1991 to 2017 have some ups and downs in the early stages, development still is the main trend From 1991 to 2000, two countries were gradually re-establishing the relationship and also the time to settle the problems between two countries, so the achievements in this period were not much and still influenced and dominated by many problems in both countries Entering the 21st century, the relationship between 17 India and Myanmar has developed in a better direction, although the relationship between two countries continues to be affected by the pressure of international public opinion related to democracy in Myanmar Since 2010, the success of democratization and legal reforms have created a wave of strong investment in Myanmar Given Myanmar's strategic position in the Look East Policy, India does not miss the opportunity to take strong steps in relations with Myanmar During the development of the India - Myanmar relationship from 1991 to 2017, it can be seen that this relationship developed gradually, with few major breakthroughs And in the transformation of that relationship, it shows that both India and Myanmar put national interests at the top of all the common problems of the country Second, the process of policy change of India and Myanmar from 1991 to 2017 is associated with the proactive change in perception of Myanmar's position in India's Look East / Act East Policy From 1991 to 2000, the problem posed with India in the bilateral relationship is to consider choosing between strategic interests, economic interests with democratization and human rights New Delhi's new policy is seen as "constructive engagement", besides healing and relationship-building activities of two countries, India's engaged stance in support of the democracy and human rights movement is also intertwined and combed in times when Myanmar makes every effort to control power From 2000 to 2014, the stance in favor of democracy and human rights movement still existed but gradually became secondary, giving way to pragmatic policies, prioritizing economic interests - meaning that support the military government to implement reforms, thereby promoting the development of bilateral relations Both sides have mutual support in many matters of politics, military and security India actively tightened cooperation with the military government, supported the democratic reform process and, unlike in the previous period, somewhat abandoned the struggling movements of the democratic forces opposed to the local government in Myanmar From 2014 to 2017, after being sworn in as Prime Minister of India, at the ASEAN Summit (November 2014) in Naypyidaw, Capital of Myanmar, in his speech, Prime Minister N Modi gave a speech changed the Look East Policy into Act East policy Since 2014, the meetings between senior leaders of India and Myanmar have been continuously held and many cooperation documents between two countries have been signed, such as anti-terrorism, defense and security cooperation, and infrastructure construction and economic development Third, the relationship between India and Myanmar is an asymmetric neighbor between a large country that has been confirmed with a small country in the process of reform, getting out of crisis 18 In terms of position, India is a large country, with a large population and has a long history of culture Since independence, India has thrived and became a power in the Cold War, with an independent, non-aligned foreign policy that has affirmed its own position on the regional and world political chess board At the end of the twentieth century and early twenty-first century, after a period of transformation and reform, India has continued to show strong economic development, political stability and defense potential, continues to affirm the position of regional power and initially influence the world Meanwhile, Myanmar, neighboring India, is the 2nd largest country in Southeast Asia, but he has a unstable political system for many years and is one of the countries with the least developed economies in the world During this period, although Myanmar has made great strides on the path of reform, the issue of democracy from being condemned and embargoed by the West until now has been removed, but the belief of the West about a real democracy takes a longer time This relationship shows the asymmetry between a big country and a small neighboring country in both reality, potentials and policy Although, there is no economic, political and social balance between India and Myanmar, but not so that Myanmar is subject to the arrangement of India During the development of the India-Myanmar relationship from 1991 to 2017, Myanmar has always been independent in its policies and ready to respond to problems that go against the interests of the country Fourth, the India - Myanmar economic relations from 1991 to 2017 developed continuously with the re-establishment and development of political relations, especially after 2014 After the first trade agreements in 1992, the mechanism of trade activities between two countries changed continuously Accordingly, from 1991 to 2004, the total trade turnover of two countries was quite modest, of which the lowest was USD 54.73 million (1991 - 1992) and the highest was only USD 498.65 million (2003 2004) This is the period when two countries have just re-established relations after a long cold period, the cooperation mechanisms in trade activities of two countries are still limited, so they cannot promote the development of trade relations between two parties From 2004 to 2014, basically the India-Myanmar bilateral trade got better The total trade turnover of two countries in this period increased rapidly, from USD 519.11 million (2004 - 2005) to USD 2,182.68 billion in 2013 - 2014 That shows that, trade activities of two countries are gradually entering stability and developing more and more n investment, India's investment items in Myanmar are concentrated in transportation and infrastructure, oil and hydroelectricity Investment programs aimed at industries that are key to the development of Myanmar's economy such as oil, electricity, railway and infrastructure projects aims to promote the 19 development of economic relations between two countries, especially cross-border projects such as India - Myanmar - Thailand highway, Kaladan multimodal transport project… Fifth, India - Myanmar relations are significantly influenced by the Chinese factor In the 1990s, with the foreign policy adjustment, China was the influential factor that forced India to adopt a policy of constructive engagement while openly supporting the opposition democratic forces, but still showed flexibility, proactively improve relations with the Government of Myanmar India's interest in Myanmar began to recover in the early 1990s when N Rao took power while shifting from a policy that emphasized human rights and democracy to one that reflected the pragmatic strategic policy The main reason for India's change is growing concern and insecurity about the military government “Myanmar has made many important changes in its policy towards China, shifting from from strategic neutrality to strategic alliance ”[119, p.28] after the 8888 event and the military arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi in 1989 In the context of isolation from many sides, Myanmar has no other way than to lean strongly towards China When the reforms in Myanmar have achieved landmark results since 2010, India cannot help but increase influence in the strategic competition with China in Myanmar The reason that India has made more positive moves towards Myanmar is that it wants to curb Chinese influence, prevent the strategy of reaching the Indian Ocean through the Myanmar route At the same time, India does not want Myanmar to become a key point in China's "Chain of Pearls" strategy to enter the Indian Ocean On the Myanmar side, dependence on China for a long time has posed a problem of wide openness The Chinese factor has become a dynamic factor during the development of India - Myanmar relations Sixthly, democracy and human rights are always an important but not decisive factor in India - Myanmar relations between 1991 and 2017 After the 8888 event, India has been caught between the pressure on the one hand to condemn the Myanmar Government for violating democracy, the human rights of internal political forces, the US, the West and on the other are real interests, demanding about the development of the relationship between two countries Through a series of above events, it shows that democracy and human rights in Myanmar have an impact on the relations between two countries, however, the Indian Government in all events has chosen the attitude of moderate intervention, cooperation trend with the military government still played a key role in all stages This has disappointed democracy activists in Myanmar Democracy of human rights 20 has an important impact on India-Myanmar relations, but it is not a decisive factor hindering the development of this relationship The mainstream in the attitude of the Indian Government is to strengthen relations with the military government for practical interests, at the same time handling the problem skillfully, both developing relations with the Myanmar military government, supporting the democratic forces here, at the same time not letting human rights organizations, democratic forces in the country and the world criticize and condemn The pragmatism of this relationship becomes more and more dominant, the issue of democracy and human rights is secondary and increasingly blurred when the democratic reforms in Myanmar bring this country into rapid integration with the world after 2010 21 CONCLUSIONS Derived from the historical-cultural similarity, proximity to geographical position and the impact of international and regional factors, the internal movement of two countries and the role of individual leaders, relations between two neighboring countries such as India and Myanmar have been gradually improved, promoted and initially developed with remarkable achievements In the period 1991 - 2017, two countries' relations did not completely develop in the upward direction but had ups and downs However, cooperation and development are still the key point that governs the policies of two countries Studying the India - Myanmar political and economic relationship from 1991 to 1917 can draw some conclusions as follows: Firstly, The development of the India - Myanmar political and economic relations (1991-2017) was driven by many objective and subjective factors The impact of globalization, the complex context of the international and regional situation with the emergence of a series of challenges in traditional and nontraditional security has become an important objective factor affecting the relations between two countries The world's most dynamic development in the Asia-Pacific region creates a power competition between major countries that has had a significant impact on Southeast Asia in general and Myanmar in particular The development of India - ASEAN relations and Myanmar's geopolitical and economic position have become very important In this relationship, the Chinese factor is both a challenge to both countries and is a factor that promotes the rapid development of the bilateral relationship Besides, in the late 1980s, India and Myanmar were facing political, economic and social difficulties That situation forced the rulers of two countries to recalculate their development strategies Both countries identified the need to multilateralize and diversify relations to help the country take off the globalization trend of the world The 8888 event in Myanmar was a fundamental dynamic factor that deeply affected the bilateral relationship because it was not only the direct consequences such as the wave of migration, the political instability in the border area with India but it also affects the idealism flag pursued by traditional foreign policy of India The democratic reform in Myanmar is like a button to gradually remove those difficulties Therefore, India-Myanmar relations flourished as a result of the democratic reforms in Myanmar Moreover, having a background of neighboring relations, a long historical and cultural relationship, the relationship between two countries has favorable conditions to promote and soon has quite strong changes in many aspects All those subjective factors make the difference of one relationship compared to other relationships 22 Secondly, India-Myanmar relations (1991-2017) thrived under the impact of India's Look East/Act East Policy and the results of reforms in Myanmar In less than years, from a cold relationship after the 8888 event, India has implemented the Look East Policy, for Myanmar is the policy of "constructive engagement" (1991 2014) On the one hand, India has made many moves to promote relations with Myanmar, supported the democratization process, and did not completely cut ties with this country like Western countries On the other hand, India is also involved in many political issues in the process of going against the democratization trend in Myanmar, although it is not a decisive factor for the prosperity or decline of the relationship between two countries, there are times when this relationship has ups and downs When the democratization process in Myanmar was basically completed, especially after the visit of Prime Minister M.Singh to Myanmar in May 2012 and after N.Modi's Act East policy was implemented (2014), the relationship between two countries has strongly developed with the steps to create a very basic cooperation mechanism Besides, taken as a whole, the bilateral relationship began to have strong changes after Myanmar implemented the democratic reform under the 7-Step Roadmap from 2003 to 2011 Democracy and human rights issues are not a barrier to the two-way relationship, but it itself makes India moderately proactive in its relationship with Myanmar being in transition The internal movement in relations between two countries and the national interests of each country is still dull, creating an endogenous strength that drives each of these relations closer and closer together, although there are still many disagreements and doubt The achievements in political, national defense and economic cooperation in this period show that the development of this relationship stems from the needs of both sides However, with its strengths, India is somewhat more proactive in establishing and accelerating relations with Myanmar On the other hand, Myanmar also showed flexibility in foreign policy, leveraging its geopolitical position to regulate relations and attract investment from outside, including India In fact, after decades of signs of "forgetting" and "neglecting" attitudes of Myanmar, this period was a reassessment of India leading to a change in the relationship between New Delhi and Naypyidaw However, the change is not really fast, but it is a long process interwoven with many internal factors as well as external factors Third, The development of the India-Myanmar political and economic relations from 1991 to 2017 has had a great impact on each country and region For India, this relationship is an important link in the realization of India's Look East/Act East Policy; contributing to the stability and development of the Northeastern states; increasing India's influence in Myanmar and limit China's influence in this country For Myanmar, tight relations with India contribute to stabilizing political security, 23 transforming the economy; contribute to limit China's influence, promote democracy, bring Myanmar out of isolation and integrate into the common development of the region and the world From the study of the Indian - Myanmar economic and political relationship from 1991 to 2017, we can see some outstanding features Over the past 27 years, although the relationship between two countries still has some ups and downs in the early stages, the development trend is the main trend The factor that created the trend was the awareness of each other's role and strategic position in the new international context that had many strong changes The process of policy change in India and Myanmar from 1991 to 2017 has been associated with the proactively changing perceptions of Myanmar's position in India's Look East Policy Political relations go ahead, paving the way, promoting economic cooperation to develop more and more strongly Democracy and human rights are always an important but it is not decisive factor in India-Myanmar relations between 1991 and 2017 In terms of overall, this is the asymmetric relationship between two neighboring countries: a large country in the region and the world in both position and potential with a smaller country struggling with crisis, reforming to get out of embargo, integrating with the world Therefore, India has been more proactive in making policy, promoting relations with Myanmar as a country with a major status However, Myanmar was also proactive, flexible and somewhat clever to take advantage of the competition among major countries to step by step promote relations with India in the spirit of reciprocity, not too weak and dependent Thereby, the relationship between India and Myanmar can evoke some reference lessons for Vietnam in the implementation of foreign policy with neighboring countries, major countries and with India Fourth, The rise of China with its ambitions has been a common basis for two countries to strengthen relations In fact, the emergence of the Indi-China strategic competition creates a two-way effect in Myanmar, but it is also the country's success after more than 20 years deeply influenced by China from economic dependence to diplomatic politics The reform's initial achievements that made major countries invest heavily in Myanmar, including investment from India, have somewhat undermined China's position in Myanmar Promoting relations with Myanmar in that context, India somewhat achieved its strategic goal of preventing China from reaching the Indian Ocean via the Myanmar route However, China is always the factor that deeply affects the bilateral relationship The Myanmar government's attempt to enforce a balanced India-China diplomacy - though sometimes in its diplomacy more inclined to China, shows the flexibility of its foreign policy of this country after the reform However, in the long run, dealing with two major regional players on a variety of issues such as military political cooperation, border security, 24 sensitive investment projects is really not easy, especially in the context of IndiaChina relations has never been smooth Fifth, The development of the India - Myanmar relationship has profoundly impacted each country and Southeast Asia region This relationship facilitates India to implement the Look East Policy, stabilize and develop the Northeastern region, and promote economic development Myanmar has also received great achievements in terms of trade and investment, infrastructure and human resource training for development after years of encirclement India - Myanmar relations also facilitate the implementation of a series of transport and infrastructure projects with the aim of connecting India with ASEAN through the Myanmar bridge, promoting the strong development of India - ASEAN relations Moreover, to realize the commitments that the India-ASEAN Vision has identified, of which the most important thing is the realization of the ASEAN-India Free Trade Area (AIFTA) At the same time, this relationship also promotes the stronger development of subregional cooperation mechanisms The similarity of interests is the basis for this relationship to achieve new achievements, despite the shortcomings and challenges of the resuming years The India - Myanmar relationship has actually had a development step, but it is only in the initial stage In terms of mechanism, two countries have paid special attention to each other, wanting to promote relations to a new height, but stemming from many reasons, the relationship mechanism is still stopping at the initial level of cooperation, which not yet formed at the strategic level From an economic perspective, trade and investment achievements, from a historical perspective, have progressed; however, from a broad perspective, India's position in the list of countries with great trade and investment value in Myanmar is limited This shows that resolving disagreements, creating confidence, promoting cooperation and growth commensurate with the bilateral relationship is a strategic task in the bilateral relationship It can be seen that, from the tilt to China, the resurgence of Myanmar has created a landscape of strategic competition among major countries in this country The India-Myanmar relationship is essentially the relationship between a big, vigorously emerging country and a small one that is struggling for reform to integrate into the world in its own right The endogenous movement of this relationship shows that even in the strategic competition between major countries in Myanmar, India still has advantages in the process of tightening relations with Myanmar India-Myanmar relations with a long-standing cultural tradition, with the similarity of ethnic interests will continue to develop strongly in the future THE SCIENTIFIC WORKS PUBLISHED RELATED TO THE THESIS Le The Cuong, Phan Thi Chau (2016), "Trade and investment relations between India and Myanmar from 2010 to 2015", Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, No 7, p.53-58 Phan Thi Chau (2018), “India's Investment and Aid in Myanmar in the period 1991-2015”, Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, No 7, p.63-69 Phan Thi Chau (2019), “Factors influencing India's foreign policy adjustment towards Myanmar from 1991 to 2015”, Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, No 9, p 38-44 Phan Thi Chau (2020), “The reasons for the adjustment of Myanmar's foreign policy towards India since 1991”, Scientific Journal of Vinh University, No 1, p.15-21 Le The Cuong, Phan Thi Chau, “Cooperation in security and defense of India Myanmar from 1991 to 2018”, Scientific Journal of Vinh University, No ... Chapter India - Myanmar relations in the political and economic field from 1991 to 2017 Chapter Impacts and characteristics of the India - Myanmar political and economic relations from 1991 to 2017. .. Analysis of factors affecting India - Myanmar relations from 1991 to 2017 - Comprehensive and systematic rehabilitation of the India- Myanmar political and economic relations from 1991 to 2017 -... CHARACTERISTICS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIA - MYANMAR FROM 1991 TO 2017 4.1 The impact of the India - Myanmar political and economic relations for each country and the region