Ta't ca cac nen kinh te tren the gidi dang phai chiu tac ddng cuoc khdng hoang ndy va dieu dd khdng cd nghia Id qud'c gia nao theo dudi eai each kinh te mot each hieu qua hdn thi qud[r]
(1)CHAU PHI VA CUOC KHUN6 HOANG KINH TE TOAN CAU: THACH THUfC, CO HOI VA GIAI PHAP
Ba td t a p chi k i n h te h a n g dau the gidi p h a t h a n h vao t h a n g n a m 2009 da d a n h gia tinh t r a n g bat dn cua n e n k i n h te toan cau hien nay TIME vdi tieu de "Lam the nao chung ta cd the thoat khdi md bong bong ndy?",
NEWSWEEK d a n g bai " Ta't ca cac qud'c
gia t r e n the gidi deu la xa hoi chii nghia" va THE ECONOMIST vdi bdi "Su trd lai cua chu nghia d a n toe ve k i n h te" Vi vay, day la thdi diem quyet dinh de chau Phi r u t r a bai hoc tii cdn bad k h u n g hoang kinh te n h d m tri nhUng t h a n h qua kinh te ma chau P h i da dat dUdc, ddng thdi day m a n h tdng trUdng k i n h te n h a n h hdn nUa
Nen kinh te toan cau dang giai ddan k h u n g hdang nghiem trong, cd le day la cuoc suy thddi kinh te n a n g nha't ke tii ndm 1930 va a n h hUdng den ta't ca cac hoat dong kinh te va cac qud'c gia t r e n the gidi
NgUdi ta d a n g t r a n h l u a n r i n g mac du cd nhiing bien ddng ciia n e n k i n h te que'c
te Sdng dudng nhU cac Uu tien cua cac n h a l a n h dae chau P h i v a n khdng thay ddi Trai lai, chinh p h u cac nUde d a n g no liic thiic hien cac muc tieu dn dinh kinh te vi me va t h u c day c a n h t r a n h De dat dUde muc tieu t d n g trUdng va c a n h t r a n h cua qud'c gia va chau luc, thi can phai huy ddng ta't ca cac ngudn lUc va thiic hien cac chinh sach dung ddn Khi nhUng Uu tien bi bd qua thi t a n g trUdng se bi cham lai Chi mot qud'c gia cd sii doan ket nei bo chat che vi t a n g trUdng, t h i dd chinh sach cdng dinh h u d n g t d n g trUdng c h i c c h i n dUde tri va p h a t trien ben vUng
1 Nen kinh te'toon cau
De hieu rd t r i e n vong cua chau Phi, dieu q u a n t r o n g la c h u n g ta nen xem lai nhUng sii kien toan cau ndi bat t r o n g nam vda qua K h u n g h o a n g tai chinh Id nguyen n h a n d i n den cuoc k h u n g hoang kinh te toan cau hien va lam cho tdc t a n g trUdng cua toan t h e gidi giam sut Trong nhUng n a m d a u cua thien nien ky
(2)Chdu Phi vd cudc khiing hodng Vu Thi Thanh
CO tdi hai p h a n ba d a n se t r e n h a n h tinh dang sdng vdi mdc t h u n h a p cad, hoac dang sdng mot n e n k i n h te t a n g trUdng m a n h Sii t h a y ddi ve chinh sach va cdng nghe ky t h u a t da tao r a nhUng cd hoi mdi cho cac nUde giau cd t r e n the gidi va dUdng nhU t a t ca cac qud'c gia cdn lai deu dUde hUdng nhUng ldi Ich Mot sd quoc gia dang p h a t trien, dac biet cac qud'c gia d khu vUc chau A, chau Au va My Latinh, qua t r i n h thiic hien cai each kinh te, da biet t a n d u n g cd hoi cua minh NgUdc lai, h a u h e t cac nUdc chau Phi treng qua trinh t h a m gia xu hudng ndy lai tha't bai, la dd ho khong biet giai quyet nhUng van de cu t h e ciia chau luc ma lai hy vong vao cai gi dd trUdc mdt
Sii sup dd bde tUdng Berlin va chu nghia ceng san Xd Viet vae cud'i ndm 1989 da lam sinh ba xu hUdng mdi
Thit nhat, sau 40 n a m ke t d chien
tranh the gidi lan t h d hai cha'm ddt, mei trUdng kinh te ddng eda dan dan thay ddi sang xu the md ciia va hdi n h a p , mdt phan la ap dung cdng nghe ky t h u a t sd Trao ddi hang hoa va dich vu toan cau va tdng san pham qud'c noi da t a n g ga'p doi giai doan 1990 -2007 va dau t u triic tiep nUdc ngoai h a n g n a m t a n g ga'p ba lan, tao dieu kien t h u a n ldi lam t a n g cdng an viec lam va tae t h u n h a p , giup mpi ngUdi n a m bit dUdc nhieu cd hoi tii thUdng mai Chinh vi vay, k h u vUc tai chinh cua cac nU6c tren the gidi cung dan bUde sang xu the hoi nhap
ThU hai, mot niia d a n sd the gidi sd'ng
tai An Dp, T r u n g Qud'c, Viet Nam va Lien bang Nga cung vdi cac nUdc thuoc Lien bang Xo Viet cu da t h a m gia vdo nen kinh te thi trUdng toan cau va deu dUdc hudng ldi Ndi bat n h a t la cd sii t h a m gia ciia
Trung Qud'c Trong giai doan na> hdng nam cd tdi hai mUdi trieu ngUdi dan Trung Qude t u nong thdn di eU den cac t h a n h phd', ndi cd k h a n a n g san xuat h a n g hda nhieu hdn gap ba lan Dieu dan den sU bUng ne san xua't va tieu dung, cen thi trUdng xuat k h a u luc dd khdng ddng vai trd quan ddi vdi sU thay doi Vao ndm 1989 c6 khoang 300 trieu cong n h a n t r e n the gidi lam viec cac n g a n h xua't khdu, nhUng eon sd da la t r e n 800 trieu cong nhan Nam 1980, cac mat h a n g xua't k h a u cua Trung Quo'c dat kim ngach khoang 20 ty USD nhUng den n a m 2007 da vUdt qua eon so
1.000 ty USD
ThU ba, sii bUng nd ve 'cung' lao dong
tren the gidi da lam giam sUc ep ve lUdng, nhUng lai tang sdc ep ve nang suat Thiic te thi cac nUde da gap tinh trang giam phat nhap khau Cae qude gia tham gia vao qua trinh da phat trien mdi trUdng kinh doanh san xuat phd hdp, phat trien hau can thUdng mai, ap dung cong nghe, tan dung ky nang, nguyen lieu khan hiem tren thi trUdng toan cau va dat nhieu ldi ich Hdn bad gid bet dieu da lam cho ho khac biet so vdi cac nUde da tha't bai viec cai thien thue day cae dieu kien kinh te va sd dung lao dong khdng ky ndng
NhUng thay ddi khong mang lai nhieu ldi ich cho cac qud'c gia tren the gidi md da tao da cho sii bung nd tieu dung tren toan cau, ke tiep theo la viec md rdng lien tuc tin dung va cae ngudn tai chinh ldn, la nguyen n h a n d i n den tinh trang suy thodi hien
Chau Phi da phan nao dUde hUdng ldi tU sU p h a t trien dUde de cap d tren Mac du 48 nUdc chau Phi cd sii khac biet
(3)Vu Thi Thanh Chdu Phi vd cudc khung hodng
nhUng n h i n c h u n g miic t a n g t r u d n g cua ho da b i t dau tii nhiing t h a p ky 1990 cac qud'c gia chau Phi t h a n h cong trdng viec dUa r a cac chinh sach diing d i n n h d m cai each nen k i n h te ciia ho mot each cd he thd'ng Tien bo dat dUdc la dd cd sU t h a y ddi ty gia ngoai hd'i, t d n g cUdng q u a n ly kinh te va t a n g t i n h m i n h bach Dieu dat chau Phi vae t i n h t h e r a t cd ldi Cd sii b u n g nd h a n g hda b i t dau sau n a m 2000 Qua t h a t , cho den k h i nen kinh te the gidi bat dau cd bien dong vao ndm 2008 thi mdc t a n g t r u d n g t r u n g binh toan chau luc van dat 5% Day la mdc t a n g trUdng k h a so vdi mot so' k h u viic khac t r e n the gidi Chau Phi da gianh dUdc nhUng p h a n t h u d n g x d n g d a n g cho minh trdng viec md ciia r a n e n k i n h te tedn cau
Qua mudn de n h a n r a r i n g , t r e n g nen kinh te tdan cau d a n g da t a n g trUdng, t h i lai xua't hien nhUng yeu kem tai chinh md rdng qua n h a n h dd chiu tac ddng ciia lai s u a t tha'p va tin d u n g t a n g trUdng n h a n h chdng chUa tiing cd t d trUdc tdi Cudc khiing h o a n g bat nguon t d sii bung nd bong bdng n h a da't d mdt sd' k h u viic chu yeu ciia My, dd ngan h a n g la n g a n h cd lien q u a n sau sac den linh viic Hinh t h d c the chap tai san de vay vd'n da dem lai ldi n h u a n qua cae den ndi cac n g a n h a n g va cac n h a mdi gidi da cha'p n h a n riii rd va cho vay mot each d at NhUng k h d a n vay m a n g t i n h riii ro cao lai dUdc tai dau t u va trd t h a n h mdt p h a n tai san cam cd' d k h a p cac n g a n h a n g t r e n t e a n the gidi H a n g loat tai san n g a n h a n g da bi ma't gia tri, sii uy thac ciia cac ngan h a n g vae nhUng tai san dd va vao gia tri ciia nhUng tai san k h a c cung m a t thee Hieu d n g "demind" b i t dau xua't hien keo t h e e h a n g Idat riii rd dd'i vdi he thd'ng ngan h a n g cua My
Dd cac td chdc tai chinh va cac n g a n h a n g v a n tiep tuc bao cae ve mdc t h u a Id ky luc ciia ho va b a n c a n ddi t h u chi sd sach ke t o a n dUdc cdng k h a i k h i e n ho ma't di quyen sii d u n g ngudn tdi chinh va ngiing ca'p t i n d u n g Do thieu ngudn tdi chinh, cong t h e m t a m ly h o a n g sd phai g a n h chiu h a u q u a t d viec t h u a le nen ngUdi tieu d u n g ciing vdi cac n h a san x u a t da c i t giam chi tieu va t h a m chi phai cat hdan tdan cac k h d a n m u a sam, dau tu san xua't h a n g hda va t u y e n dung lao dong Vdng t u a n h d a n k h a c nghiet da day n e n k i n h te My vae t i n h t r a n g suy thdai cang nghiem NhUng tai cudc khiing h d a n g k i n h te lai khdng chi xay r a t r d n g p h a m vi nUdc My?
Nguyen nhdn thit nhat cac td chdc tdi
chinh d cac qud'c gia k h a c da dau tU vdo sii bung nd tin d u n g ciia My va sU sup dd ciia bdng bdng ba't dong san Thit hai, viec sii d u n g nguon chi tieu cua ngUdi dan My vad viec dau t u tin d u n g d cac qud'c gia khac t r e n the gidi
Hien nay, cudc k h u n g hoang the cha'p tai san cua My la n g u y e n n h a n d i n tdi cudc k h u n g h o a n g tdi chinh va khiing hoang tinh t h a n h khoan toan cau NhU vay, moi trUdng nao cd the dam bao tinh an toan de cac qud'c gia cung nhU cac doanh nghiep cd t h e boat dong dUdc va dieu ndy se tac ddng nhU t h e nao den chau Phi
2 Mot so'tac cTong €o\ vdi chdu Phi
Dd'i vdi chau Phi, cuoc k h u n g h o a n g kinh te toan cau dem den mot sd tac dong cd ban
Xet d mdt sd' linh vUc, chau Phi it chiu tac ddng triic tiep t d k h u n g hoang bdi cac he thd'ng tai chinh cua ho cdn yeu va m a n g tinh cue bo, chUa hoi n h a p vdi he thdng tai
(4)Chdu Phi vd cudc khung hodng Vu Thi Thanh
chinh toan cau Nhin chung, cac nen kinh te chau Phi, trii mot vai trUdng hdp (nhu Nam Phi) deu d a n g nd liic p h a t trien thi trUdng tai chinh doc lap vd cd hieu qua d nhieu nUdc chau Phi, lai sua't va cung cap tin dung khdng cd tac d u n g nhieu cho cac boat dong kinh te bdi sU can thiep cua he thdng ngan h a n g d cac nUdc Id r a t b a n che, chinh vi vay sU p h u thuoc vao tin dung la ra't tha'p Hdn t h e n U a , n h i n chung cac ngan h a n g d k h u viic can Xahara cd ban can dd'i tai chinh ra't nhd so vdi cac ngan hang va cac td chdc chdng khoan nUdc ngoai, dd tac dong tieu cUc cua bang can dd'i tai chinh nhU dang xay r a d chau Au hien dUdng nhU khdng xay d chau Phi Nhin ve lau dai thi sii phat trien cua n g a n h tdi chinh chau Phi phai phu thuoc nhieu vao cac n h a n td ben nhU: lam phat, sdc khoe cua nen kinh te va ca mot chang dUdng dai day khd khdn de xay diing the che nUde vUng manh, cd dat dUde sii dieu tiet can dd'i ve tinh t h a n h khoan va sU linh boat thi trUdng hdn la sdc khde ciia cac the che toan cau
Ta't nhien, bUc t r a n h ve mot nen kinh te thiic sU dUde t h a ndi tii mdt he thd'ng tdi chinh nhd be khdng phai la hoan toan dung Nhu d Kenia va Nigieria, k h u n g hoang ngan h a n g da cd nhUng a n h hUdng thiic sU xa'u p h a n ldn cac nUdc chau Phi khac, viec kheng p h a t trien dich vu t r u n g gian tai chinh ve lau dai se kim h a m sii tang trudng; met each triic tiep hay gian tiep, ta't ca chung ta deu la nd cua cac ngan hang phUdng Tay ndi ma hien viec chuyen tien m a t k h e n g cdn phd bien va cung ra't khd k h a n Vi du, sii tdng trUdng ciia Nam Phi t h a p ky qua phan ldn phu thuoc vao viec md rdng tin dung nUdc, song dieu cung se
khdng ben vUng va cung se bi tac ddng sau cudc k h u n g hoang Bdi vi dong vdn dau tU giam dan den t h a m hut cdn can toan va la nguy cd gay lam phat cao va giam gia tri ddng noi te cua Nam Phi mac du ve lau ddi thi dieu cd the se khdng anh hudng xa'u dd'i vdi viec kinh doanh va tinh canh t r a n h cua Nam Phi Song, ddi vdi nhUng tap dodn ldn md phu thuoc qua nhieu vao ngudn vd'n cua thi trUdng vdn quo'c te, thi anh hUdng cua cuoc khdng hoang la r a t n h a n h , manh va tham chi cdn rat tdi te
Mac du chau Phi it chiu tac dong sau cdn bad k h u n g hoang tai chinh toan cau nhUng cac nen kinh te cua chau Phi cd the hi anh hUdng rat ldn neu bat ky mot sau bien dong sau day se xay vd mdc cd the se tram hdn ca ve chieu rong va chieu sau:
1 Gia bdng boa giam nhanh chdng d mUe tha'p hdn hien
2 Tai trd cua khu viic tu nhan qude te ddi vdi cac dii an ddi ban bi ddng lai Theo Ude tinh cua Vien Tai chinh Qud'c te, dong dau tu cho cae nUde dang phat trien cd the giam hdn 80% so vdi mdc cua ndm 2007 xudng 165 ty USD vao nam 2009 Xhieu cdng ty tu n h a n tai cae thi trUdng mdi ndi se khdng cd kha ndng chi tra cac khoan nd cua ho Tinh den giUa nam 2009 cac khoan nd den b a n cua cae ceng ty tU nhan d Braxin, Mehicd, An Do va cac nUdc khac tren the gidi Ude tinh len den 100 ty USD
3 Vien trd chinh thUc song phUdng cung n h u da phUdng cho chau Phi hi giam n h a n h chdng (dieu ndy cung xay tUdng t u n h u xay k h u n g hoang tai chinh tien te cua khu viic chau A vao nam 1997/1998)
(5)Vu Thi Thanh Chdu Phi vd cudc khung hodng
4 Cau khdng chi ve h a n g h e a ma ca cac san p h a m k h a c m a cac qud'c gia chau Phi b a n t r e n thi trUdng quo'c te deu giam dan Dieu de dea den mdc t a n g trUdng ben vUng cua thi trUdng xua't k h a u , dd xua't k h a u la mot t r o n g nhUng dong lUc chinh dai b a n dd'i vdi sii t h i n h vUdng cua n e n kinh te d mdt sd qud'c gia chau Phi ma chung ta da c h d n g kien t r o n g nhUng n a m gan day
5 Du lich va thUdng m a i dich vu giam NgUdi t a dii d o a n r d n g sd' lUdng ngUdi du lich den cac nUdc d a n g p h a t t r i e n se giam 20% t r o n g n a m 2009, song d mot so nUdc c h a u P h i , so' n a y dii bao cdn giam n h i e u
6 T h a n h k h o a n toan cau giam gay ap lUc dd'i vdi thi trUdng c h d n g k h o a n va gia tri ddng noi te cua cac qud'c gia chau Phi Nhin c h u n g trdng n a m 2009, thi trUdng c h d n g khoan cua cac nUde chau Phi lien tuc rdt gia Neu t i n h theo gia tri ddng dd la thi p h a n ldn thi trUdng c h d n g khodn cua cac nUde chau Phi n d m 2008 deu cd mdc t a n g trUdng am, c h a n g b a n nhU d Ai Cap la -6,1%, Nigieria la - 54,2%, Mdrixd - 50,2%, Kenia la - 47,2%, N a m Phi la - 45%, rieng G h a n a dat mdc t a n g trUdng 20,2 %, day la mdc t a n g trUdng dUde mdng ddi
Nhin c h u n g dd'i vdi chau Phi, sii p h a t trien n g i n b a n va t r u n g b a n p h u thuec vad gia ca h a n g hoa Neu gia ca h a n g hoa giam thi n h d n g nUdc xua't k h a u h a n g hda se gap nhieu bat ldi T i n h h i n h se t r a m t r e n g hdn n e n k i n h te T r u n g Que'c lam vad suy thoai bdi vi h i e n T r u n g Que'c d a n g cd nhUng a n h h u d n g q u a n d chau Phi Dau rdt gia gan 300% sd vdi mdc dinh diem t r e n g n d m 2008, cac h a n g hda khac t d bach kim den kim cUdng, tii
ddng cho den t h e p deu rdt gia tUdng tU Ciing gid'ng nhU cac k h u vUc d a n g p h a t trien khac, c h a u P h i k h d n g t h e t r e n g ddi n h i e u vao sii trd giup cua cac n h a tai trd cung n h u cac td chiic da phUdng Neu tien te ma't gia t h i b a n t h a n Quy Tien te Qud'c te (IMF) c u n g k h d n g cd k h a ndng kiem seat cudc k h u n g h o a n g Cdn bad k h u n g h d a n g tai chinh t o a n cau da lan den cac quec gia c h a u Phi, nhUng qua t r i n h phuc hdi n e n k i n h te cua hd hdan tdan p h u thudc vao viec b a n t h a n cac qude gia chau P h i dd giai quyet nhU the nao
Ben c a n h nhUng tac dong tieu ciic thi cuoc k h u n g h o a n g cung dem lai mot so' tac dong tich cUc, c h a n g h a n nhU it tac dong den can can t h a n h toan cua cac qud'c gia n h a p d a u va lUdng thiic d Chau Phi Vi nhUng ly ke t r e n , cuoc suy thoai k i n h te tai chinh toan cdu chdc c h a n se tae dong sau sdc den chau Phi hdn la nhUng gi ma ngUdi ta dii t i n h
3 Nhi/ng giai phap cuo chdu Phi
Lieu cac chinh p h u d chau Phi cd t h e dii doan dUde sU t h a y ddi gia ca h a n g hoa the gidi va so' lUdng ngUdi d a n se lam vao t i n h t r a n g ngheo k h d de tU dd tim giai p h a p t h a o gd hay khdng? C u n g gid'ng nhU cac qud'c gia k h a c t r e n t h e gidi, cac n h a l a n h dao chau P h i p h a i tim each dd'i phd vdi nhUng dieu kien khd k h d n va sU t h a y ddi vdi to'c chdng m a t Ai lam tdt se la ngUdi t h a n h cdng t r o n g viec giai quyet cac n h u cau, nhUng sdc ep c h i n h tri va nhUng va'n de c h i n h sach t r o n g n g i n b a n va dai b a n
Giai doan ngdn han (dudi 12 thdng): cdn CO sU dn dinh vd ddng thuan: Cac n h a
lanh dao chau Phi phai tim each q u a n ly cac va'n de k i n h te, chinh tri n h u t h u e
(6)Chdu Phi vd cudc khung hodng Vu Thi Thanh
thUdng mai va cac ngudn tdi nguyen va phai biet each tai trd cang it hdn nhUng lai kem t h e e nhUng dieu kien rd rang hdn Sd vdi cac nUdc phUdng Tay, cac thi trUdng vd'n t r o n g nUdc cdn b a n che thi hau het cac n h a l a n h dao chau Phi khong cd nhieu k h a n a n g trd giup nen kinh te theng qua cac chUdng t r i n h kich cau trdng nUdc Dieu n a y cd nghia Id khdng it cac doanh nghiep cung vdi n h a nUdc phai chiu ap lUc ve tai chinh NhUng chinh phu se phai dUa r a cac dieu luat de bao ve gidi doanh nghiep Cd r a t nhieu ho gia dinh, dac biet la nhUng ho san xuat thdi vu, se phai dd'i m a t vdi viec giam thu nhap vd se can den sii hd trd ndy, t h a m chi la ca ve lUdng thiic Cac quy hd trd cung nen ket hdp vdi nhUng ngudn tai trd khac de hd trd cho cac chUdng trinh tad viec lam cdng cdng Cac chUdng trinh tai trd can hUdng vad chi tieu nUdc de trd giup ngUdi nghee
Cac qud'c gia chau Phi cung se phai thiic hien nhUng chinh sach t h a p _ ^ ^ nhflng ap liic hien Khdng gid'ng nhU, cac nUdc phUdng Tay ndi ma riii ro ldn nha't ddi vdi chinh sach tien te la giam phat, thi cac qud'c gia chau Phi lai phai dd'i mat vdi cau ngan sach rd't ldn doanh thu hi giam va cac qud'c gia chau Phi phai Ilia chpn chinh sach t a n g cung tien vd cha'p nhan lam p h a t cae hdn, dieu se lam cho ddng npi te m a t gia Ket qua la dat nhflng thach thiic ve kinh te, chinh tri, xa hoi cang ldn hdn va kee ddi hdn Vi vay, cac chinh sach hdp ly khac cung can dUdc thuc hien, dac biet la cai each thUdng mai, cac chUdng trinh y te, giad due, cd sd tang va chi tieu Cac n h a lanh dae chau Phi can phai xay diing lien minh de ho trd cac Uu tien chinh sach dd
Giai doan trung han (dudi 24 thdng): trdnh mdc sai Idm tU cuoc khiing hodng kinh te: Ra't nhieu nhd binh luan tren the
gidi da n h a n h chdng xem cudc khung hoang tai chinh hien nhU mot b i n g chdng de chUng minh r i n g cac qude gia t r e n the gidi nen loai bd cdng cudc cai each kinh te theo dinh hudng thi trUdng, chinh sach thue day thUdng mai thu hut dau tU triic tiep nUdc ngoai vd cac yeu to' khac lien quan den toan cau boa vdn la dong liic t a n g trUdng kinh te cua rat nhieu nude tren the gidi Hp cung dang cd gdng chdng minh cudc k h u n g hoang la cd sii sup dd cudi cung cua he thong kinh te thi trUdng hay he thong thUdng mai qude te va u n g bp y kien cho rdng cac qude gia dang phat trien nen quay trd lai "qua khU" Day la mot sii dien giai khdng dung vd la ldi khuyen sai lam ve tat ca nhdng gi da xay Ta't ca cac nen kinh te tren the gidi dang phai chiu tac ddng cuoc khdng hoang ndy va dieu dd khdng cd nghia Id qud'c gia nao theo dudi eai each kinh te mot each hieu qua hdn thi qude gia dd se biv*ac dong cua cudc khung hoang nhieu hdn Nguyen nhan chu \ e u la each dieu tiet he thdng tai chinh sai lam chd khdng phai toan bd cd che cua he thdng thUdng mai qude te Dieu can Idm hien la thay ddi he thdng tai chinh ngan h a n g dang ha'p hdi cua Anh va My, bao gdm ca viec can thiep rdng va tai dieu tiet chat che cua n h a nUdc Dieu dd khdng ddng nghia vdi viec cac qude gia nhd be dang phat trien phai lo sd ha_\ trdn chay khdi nen kinh te thi trUdng dan chd, he thdng quan ly tdt, thUdng mai qud'c te vd xay diing the che,
Giai doan ddi han (dUdi 36 thdng): Tap hap cdc ngudn lUc tdng tritdng de canh
(7)Vu Thi Thanh Chdu Phi vd cudc khung hodng
tranh: Muc tieu chinh t r o n g giai doan
la dau t u vd'n vao cac t h i trUdng d a n g p h a t trien Qua thiic, cac ngudn liic t a n g trUdng d cac qud'c gia chau P h i va chau A, chau My Latinh la cd cd sd tdt va se can hp tai k h a n g dinh Dieu d a n g ndi d day la mac du khiing h o a n g k i n h te xay r a hien song cac Uu tien dai h a n cua cac n h a lanh dao chau Phi khdng t h a y ddi Can phai t a n g tdc hay day m a n h cac muc tieu lien q u a n den dn dinh k i n h te vi md va thuc day tinh canh t r a n h T a n g trUdng va canh t r a n h khdng chi la Uu tien cua cac qude gia chau Phi ma la Uu tien cua todn chau luc, n e n cac ngudn liic can phai dUdc huy ddng, cac chinh sach thich hdp va cac kich b a n tdt can phai dUdc vach mdt each ky lUdng Mdt cac Uu tien bi bd qua thi tdng trUdng se hi can trd Khi mdt nUdc t a p t r u n g nguon liic nUde vi tdng trUdng thi dd chinh sach cdng dinh hudng tdng trUdng chac c h a n se dUdc quyet t a m theo dudi den cung
Tom lai, sii cd lap tUdng dd'i cua chau Phi dd'i vdi nen k i n h te toan cau p h a n nao t r a n h cho chau luc n a y mot so' h a u qua t d cudc k h u n g hoang k i n h te toan cau hien Tuy nhien, viec giam gia h a n g hoa cung n h u giam ddng vien trd se gay khd khdn cho mot sd qud'c gia chau Phi cu t h e
dac biet doi vdi nhUng qud'c gia chau Phi suy giam va phuc hdi c h a m hinh chU U sau mot thdi gian dai Hdn n u a chinh sach t h u c day tieu d u n g nUdc cd hieu liic ddi vdi mot so' qud'c gia chau A chau Au va My nhUng lai khong cd hieu liic ddi vdi h a u het cac nUdc chau Phi
De dat dUdc t a n g trUdng trdng giai ddan tiep t h e e , cac nUdc c h a u Phi se phai dUa r a nhUng chinh sach hUu hieu, phU hdp de ddi mdi k i n h te, loai bd thd't bai va giam chi phi cho n e n k i n h te De lam dUdc n h u vay, chinh p h u cua cac nUde chau Phi phai c i t giam chi phi cao (nhU phi du lich qud'c te va mot sd' nhUng chi phi cad khac), tap t r u n g vad cac dii an dau tU lau dai cho cac linh viic n h u cd sd h a t i n g vd gidd due Hp cung nen u n g hp thiet lap cac te chdc tai chinh bdi neu k h d n g cd cac n g a n h a n g tin cay va cac thi trUdng tin d u n g hieu qua thi chau Phi se k h d n g t h o a t khdi ngheo ddi k h i chi t r d n g chd vad cac k h o a n hd trd ciia cac td chdc va mot so' he thd'ng tai chinh cdn kem p h a t trien Ddng thdi, cac nude chau P h i se p h a i cai t h i e n cac dieu kien c a n h t r a n h bao gdm che dp thue, ndng sua't lao ddng va cac dich vu thiet yeu ddng vai trd chu chd't chUdng t r i n h nghi sU qude gia
Ngudn: Africa and the Global Economic Crisis Threats, Opportunities and Responses; Theo
Brenthurst Discussion Paper, 3/2009
Lxidc d i c h : Vu Thi Thanh
V i e n N g h i e n c i i u C h a u P h i v a T r u n g D o n g