Study on water allocation in river basin using linear programming a case study of vu gia thu bon river basin thesis of master degree major integrated water resources managemen

TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES ABSTRACT DECLARATION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CHAPTER – INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem Statement 1.2 Objectives of Study 10 1.3 Scope of Study 11 1.4 Research Questions 11 1.5 Vu Gia – Thu Bon River Basin 12 1.5.1 Location 12 1.5.2 Topographic Characteristics 13 1.5.3 Rainfall Characteristics in the Dry Season 14 CHAPTER – LITERATURE REVIEW 19 2.1 Water Allocation Planning 19 2.2 Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) 27 2.2.1 Historical Development of SWAT Model 27 2.2.2 Theoretical Base and Applications of SWAT Model 29 2.3 Linear Programming 39 CHAPTER – APPLICATION OF SWAT 42 3.1 Input Data Processing 44 3.2 Sub-catchments Delineation 50 3.3 Reservoir Processing 52 3.4 Land Cover Scenario 55 CHAPTER – APPLICATION OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING 58 4.1 Fundamental Theory Base 58 4.2 Water Demand Investigation 60 4.3 Water Price 69 4.4 Results and Analysis 71 CHAPTER – CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 78 REFERENCES 80 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Vu Gia – Thu Bon river basin 12 Figure 1.2: Mean flow in the dry season of 1981-2010 periods 17 Figure 1.3: Low-flow module (Source: Water Resources Investigation and Assessment of VGTB River Basin Project) 17 Figure 2.1: Basin water allocation agreements and plans in the twentieth century (Robert Speed et al, 2013) 20 Figure 2.2: Water allocation planning model in Western Australia 21 Figure 2.3: Water resources planning framework in Vietnam 24 Figure 2.4: Water resources planning solutions of Dong Nai case study 26 Figure 2.5: Water Resources Allocation Planning in Lang Son Province 27 Figure 2.6: Balance scheme of SWAT model 31 Figure 2.7: Scheme of linear repositories in SWAT model 32 Figure 2.8: Underground reservoir 35 Figure 2.9: Reservoir of surface runoff 36 Figure 3.1: Total water resources and water available for allocation (Robert Speed et al, 2013) 43 Figure 3.2: Screen shot of official website of USGS 44 Figure 3.3: Screen shot of MODIS-based Global Land Cover Climatology 45 Figure 3.4: Screen shot of FAO official website 46 Figure 3.5: SWAT Model Simulation (Source: NASA-CASA Project) 46 Figure 3.6: Land Cover Map 48 Figure 3.7: Soil Map 49 Figure 3.8: Sub-catchments divided by SWAT model 50 Figure 3.9: Final sub-catchments map 50 Figure 3.10: Monitoring locations 52 Figure 3.11: Edit Reservoir Parameters Table 54 Figure 3.12: Land Use Update Edit tool 56 Figure 3.13: Comparison between measurement and simulation in Nong Son 57 Figure 4.1: Water allocation in Upper Thu Bon basin in 2020 72 Figure 4.2: Water allocation in Lower Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin in 2020 77 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Rainfall in the dry season, the three-lowest-month and the lowest month (mm) 14 Table 1.2: Low-flow characteristics of the VGTB River 16 Table 1.3: The lowest flow characteristics in the basin 18 Table 1.4: The lowest flow at some main locations in the river basin 18 Table 3.1: Information of basin after overlay 47 Table 3.2: Sub-basins of VGTB basin 51 Table 3.3: Definitions of reservoir parameters 53 Table 3.4: Technical parameters of reservoirs 55 Table 4.1: Population of the urban area in 2020 60 Table 4.2: Water demand in municipality and town in 2020 61 Table 4.3: Population of the rural area 61 Table 4.4: Water supplied to rural domestic use 62 Table 4.5: Water demand for domestic use in the VGTB river basin in 2020 63 Table 4.6: Crop schedule of crops in the VGTB basin 63 Table 4.7: Water use criteria of crops 64 Table 4.8: Area of crop in the VGTB basin in 2020 65 Table 4.9: Volume of water supplied to agricultural production in 2020 65 Table 4.10: Quantity of cattle and avian in the VGTB basin in 2020 66 Table 4.11: The total water demand of sectors 67 Table 4.12: Summary of inputs for Linear Programming 69 Table 4.13: Water allocation in Upper Thu Bon basin in 2020 71 Table 4.14: Water allocation in Upper Vu Gia basin in 2020 73 Table 4.15: Water allocation in Lyly River basin in 2020 74 Table 4.16: Water allocation in Tuy Loan River basin in 2020 75 Table 4.17: Water allocation in Lower Vu Gia-Thu Bon basin in 2020 76 ABSTRACT Rivers are as a rule under expanding adverse pressures in view of fast changes of riparian gimmicks These progressions, likely including increase of urbanization, industrialization, overpopulation have made obvious dangers affecting on the wellbeing of the nature and maintainable advancement This overall pattern has moved the routine methodology of researchers with respect to water allocation planning from straightforwardness into more many-sided quality, considering the multi-viewpoints, for example, environmental flow, financial profit streamlining or possible interest conflicts This Vu Gia - Thu Bon (VGTB) contextual analysis can be portrayed as a reaction to the prerequisite of a cutting edge water allocation mechanism by applying the integrated standards of water resources management and linear programming The fundamental objective of this study is to build an allocation planning for the VGTB River basin To come up with solutions, Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model is applied to assess the water availability in the basin and Excel Solver tool is utilized to solve Linear Programming (LP) equations A specific value of volume of water in the basin is the most imperative component prompting the applicability of the allocation results, an objective appraisal of water accessibility is extremely discriminating to guarantee the met of demand and supply and additionally actualize the allocation results, SWAT model is in charge of fathoming this undertaking Use of LP is introduced by building an objective function and relevant constraints; along these lines, Microsoft Excel is utilized to solve the equations DECLARATION I hereby certify that the work which is being presented in this thesis, entitled “Study on Water Allocation in River Basin: A Case Study of Vu Gia - Thu Bon River Basin” in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the Master of Science in Integrated Water Resource Management, is an authentic record of my own work carried out under supervision of Assoc Prof Dr Nguyen Cao Don and Dr Bui Du Duong The matter embodied in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any other degree or diploma Date: Hanoi, May 04, 2015 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS As a matter of first importance, I am thankful to the Netherlands Government for the grant that encourage this study under The Netherlands Initiative for Capacity improvement in Higher Education (NICHE) I wish to thank my head honcho, Hanoi University of Natural Resources and Environment (HUNRE) for permitting personal time to take a shot at this research and giving backing from numerous points of view amid the study I might likewise want to augment my gratitude to Assoc Prof Dr Nguyen Cao Don and Dr Bui Du Duong for tolerating to be my supervisors and for offering their mastery and profitable time to me They have tried to review and edit every section and assisted with escalated direction for complex issues This proposition would not have been conceivable without their profitable direction, skill, recommendations and untiring consolation An exceptional note of much obliged must go to Assoc Prof Dr Nguyen Thu Hien, a dear speaker and organizer of NICHE Program She is the key driver in charge of molding this Master study and supporting understudies successfully amid the course I might want to say thanks to Ms Mariette van Tilburg from TU Delft for her commitment of English amendment to this MSc study and Dr Ilyas Masih from UNESCO-IHE for calmly bearing my endless inquiries and remarks and giving me significant addresses on water allocation planning On account of the numerous associates at the Faculty of Meteorology and Hydrology, Faculty of Water Resources, HUNRE who helped me in different courses particularly amid field information accumulation and meetings to generate new ideas I additionally need to express my true from the base of heart for companions for their backings, empowers and advices To wrap things up, I need to express my inherent comprehension of my relatives, my adored mate for their unrestricted loves CHAPTER – INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem Statement Issues existed in the VGTB basin can be depicted in both specific and general manner In general, perspectives building integrated watershed management in VGTB is confronting comparative issues with different rivers in Vietnam: (1) the overlapping of state administration causes snags in adding to the water resources planning strategy There are more than two ministries are included in dealing with river's and related assets, this trademark is considered as one of the primary reasons delivering low applicability of studies on water allocation planning This characteristic makes the issues identified with overexploitation, water quality or flow regime change becomes hazardous to illuminate completely Case in point, while Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE) is responsible for overseeing water resources management, hydraulic structures along the stream are been in charge of many other Ministries, for example, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) or Ministry of Construction (MoC), this component makes the confusing in issuing regulations in extracting water or discharge pollutants into the river between MoNRE and the others (2) Involvement of stakeholders in planning water resources allocation is not actively taken into account and does not provide efficiency, especially citizens’ communities living in the study area In reality, committees organized in some basins nationwide not work effectively; linkage between administrative counties does not produce management proficiency The construction of industrial parks, dams in upstream and increasing urbanization leads to increase of hazardous waste and pollution and degradation of coastal areas, giving rise to conflicts in allocating downstream water (Natural Resources and Environment Journal, 2014) Particularly, the most complicated problem happening in the VGTB River basin is reservoirs’ regulation To date, the basin has large hydropower projects and 820 irrigation works including 72 reservoirs, 546 spillways, and 202 pumping stations Planned hydropower in mainstream of Vu Gia Thu Bon up to 2020 proposes to build 10 hydropower plants with a total capacity of 1,200 MW During the last decade, there are many studies on inundation and drought in this area, saying that impacts of reservoirs are seriously severe (Nga, 2014) Natural flooding becomes more extreme and difficult to predict due to man-made influences in the upstream Irrational management of storing and releasing water kept inside the reservoir causes adverse impacts to the downstream such as salinity intrusion in 2012, at Han estuary, inundation in 2009, at many places in Quang Nam (Nga, 2014) Furthermore, use of reservoirs does not obey the ratified design; flood control volume is reduced to satisfy the electricity generation demand (Natural Resources and Environment Journal, 2014) This factor is considered as the main reason causing manmade and flash flood in the downstream In fact, the process of operating reservoir system in VGTB was issued by the Prime Minister since 2010; however, even the proper operation of this process still does not guarantee the safety of citizens living in downstream The evidence is that after a series of incidents hydro flood, flooded suddenly, causing loss of property and lives of the people downstream, for example in 2009 and the latest storm in October, 2013 Additionally, this issue also decreases the accuracy in assessing water availability Data regarding water temporally kept in the reservoir not have high confidence; this characteristic cannot be predicted by model This study supposes that flood discharge process is earnestly obeyed The VGTB river basin plays a particularly critical role in the socioeconomic development strategy in the Central Coast VGTB River system provides an important source of water for the development needs of living, the economy of the province of Quang Nam and Da Nang In addition to hydropower potential, the VGTB also supplies water for over 45,000 hectares of agricultural and domestic production for nearly million people in the basin Vu Gia River, especially as it passes through the city of Da Nang plays a very important role for the socio-economic development of the city; annual average of nearly 75 million m supply of raw water to water plants serving the people living in cities and industrial areas, more than 100 million m3 of water for agriculture In addition to providing water for economic activities and livelihoods, the river also serves as a climate control, creating beautiful landscapes, especially the passage to the Han estuary The provision of water resources ensures the sustainable development of various sectors in the region As a key central economic region, this area has seen a rapid industrialization and development of many sectors This feature has consequently created serious stress for water resources of the basin, especially during the dry season when stream water availability is significantly decreased Currently, there are conflicts between water users in this area when a series of dams were constructed in the upstream area, causing water shortage for the downstream during the dry season Furthermore, the gap in economic yields between sectors also produces necessity of reallocating water resources The irrational allocation mechanism has decreased the total possible benefits gained from industrial productions; while industry can provide a much larger water yield compared with agricultural productions and livestock, the majority of water resources is being supplied to agriculture Accordingly, the study of the VGTB stream water allocation is vitally important to ensure the optimization of water resources Based on the characteristics of the basin and management as above mention, a study of resource allocation must be done to satisfy the integrated manner in management and ensure technical factors as well as effective business Linkage between using SWAT and LP to compute allocation basing IWRM framework can be used when considering the components of the hydrological cycle, the advocacy process of water on the basin and crystal economic efficiency when allocating 1.2 Objectives of Study The overall objective of this study is to propose an optimal water allocation plan in the Vu Gia - Thu Bon River basin The specific objectives are as follows: 10 seen that water supplied for agricultural production in the basin has very low economic efficiency Livestock: Price of livestock is defined after deducting expenses not receiving water supply; it is about 1.5 times the average cost of irrigation water Price for the livestock in the basin is at VND 2100/m3 Industry: The value of water-use for the industrial production is calculated by evaluating the total gross value of industrial products million industry GDP is estimated to need 25m3 of water, so the average value of one m3 water is around 109,000 VND Domestic use: Price of domestic water is based on request of consumer Normally, a person agrees to spend no more than 2% of total income for water payment The value of clean water supplied to residents is around VND 2,200/m3 Then, the objective function of the Upper Thu Bon sub-basin can be defined as: Maximum of B = 2200dsh + 109000dcn + 1400dnn + 2100dchn And the constraints: C1: dsh ≤ 0.70 mil m3 C2: dsh ≥ 90% * 0.70 mil m3 C3: dcn ≤ 0.02 mil m3 C4: dcn ≥ 70% * 0.02 mil m3 C5: dnn ≤ 50.12 mil m3 C6: dnn ≥ 70% * 50.12 mil m3 C7: dchn ≤ 0.28 mil m3 C8: dchn ≥ 70% * 0.28 mil m3 C9: dsh + dcn + dnn + dchn ≤ 60.23 – 0.2*(0.7 + 0.02 + 50.12 + 0.28) mil m3 70 4.4 Results and Analysis The outcomes of this study cover the water allocation planning in 2020 of the sub-basins: Vu Gia Upstream, Thu Bon Upstream, Ly Ly River, Tuy Loan River and Vu Gia-Thu Bon Downstream Ws: Volume of water allocated for domestic use; Wi: Volume of water allocated for industrial production; Wa: Volume of water allocated for agricultural production; Wc: Volume of water allocated for livestock Table 4.13: Water allocation in Upper Thu Bon basin in 2020 Unit: million m3 Sub-basin Upper Thu Bon Month Wtotal Ws Wi Wa Wc I 56.21 0.7 0.02 55.21 0.28 II 51.12 0.7 0.02 50.12 0.28 III 50.32 0.7 0.02 49.32 0.28 IV 11.97 0.7 0.02 10.97 0.28 V 56.92 0.7 0.02 55.92 0.28 VI 56.68 0.7 0.02 55.68 0.28 VII 54.57 0.7 0.02 53.57 0.28 VIII 11.45 0.7 0.02 10.45 0.28 IX 10.34 0.7 0.02 9.34 0.28 71 Sub-basin Upper Thu Bon X 2.21 0.7 0.02 1.21 0.28 XI 0.7 0.02 0.28 XII 0.7 0.02 0.28 Total 363.79 8.4 0.24 351.79 3.36 The result shows that agricultural production requires majority of water supply The unfavorable topography of Upper Thu Bon sub-basin causes difficulties in broadening industrial zones In contrary to agriculture, the water demand of this sector is very limited Compared to other sectors, agricultural production always requires a very high supply off water; however, its demand is varied regarding season while other sectors are remained unchanged 60 Domestic Industry Agriculture Livestock Volume of water (mil m3) 50 40 30 20 10 Month Figure 4.1: Water allocation in Upper Thu Bon basin in 2020 72 10 11 12 Table 4.14: Water allocation in Upper Vu Gia basin in 2020 Unit: million m3 Sub-basin Upper Vu Gia Month Wtotal Ws Wi Wa Wc I 44.47 0.49 42.25 1.73 II 47.45 0.49 45.23 1.73 III 38.96 0.49 36.74 1.73 IV 7.81 0.49 5.59 1.73 V 48.34 0.49 46.12 1.73 VI 44.64 0.49 42.42 1.73 VII 46.2 0.49 43.98 1.73 VIII 4.38 0.49 2.16 1.73 IX 3.27 0.49 1.05 1.73 X 2.22 0.49 0 1.73 XI 2.22 0.49 0 1.73 XII 2.22 0.49 0 1.73 Total 292.18 5.88 265.54 20.76 73 Table 4.15: Water allocation in Lyly River basin in 2020 Unit: million m3 Subasin Lyly River basin Month Wtotal Ws Wi Wa Wc I 30.97 0.4 0.17 30.34 0.06 II 32.78 0.4 0.17 32.15 0.06 III 32.74 0.4 0.17 32.11 0.06 IV 4.77 0.4 0.17 4.14 0.06 V 33.79 0.4 0.17 33.16 0.06 VI 34.82 0.4 0.17 34.19 0.06 VII 24.73 0.4 0.17 24.1 0.06 VIII 10.76 0.4 0.17 10.13 0.06 IX 0.73 0.4 0.17 0.1 0.06 X 0.63 0.4 0.17 0.06 XI 0.63 0.4 0.17 0.06 XII 0.63 0.4 0.17 0.06 Total 207.98 4.8 2.04 200.42 0.72 74 Table 4.16: Water allocation in Tuy Loan River basin in 2020 Unit: million m3 Subasin Tuy Loan River Basin Month Wtotal Ws Wi Wa Wc I 19 3.3 0.09 15.55 0.06 II 17.6 3.3 0.09 14.15 0.06 III 17.3 3.3 0.09 13.85 0.06 IV 8.48 3.3 0.09 5.03 0.06 V 18.47 3.3 0.09 15.02 0.06 VI 17.52 3.3 0.09 14.07 0.06 VII 10.77 3.3 0.09 7.32 0.06 VIII 3.57 3.3 0.09 0.12 0.06 IX 3.55 3.3 0.09 0.1 0.06 X 3.45 3.3 0.09 0.06 XI 3.45 3.3 0.09 0.06 XII 3.45 3.3 0.09 0.06 Total 126.61 39.6 1.08 85.21 0.72 75 Table 4.17: Water allocation in Lower Vu Gia-Thu Bon basin in 2020 Unit: million m3 Subasin Lower Vu Gia-Thu Bon Basin Month Wtotal Ws Wi Wa Wc I 119.41 2.56 0.53 115.86 0.46 II 118.14 2.56 0.53 114.59 0.46 III 113.83 2.56 0.53 110.28 0.46 IV 24.28 2.56 0.53 20.73 0.46 V 118.67 2.56 0.53 115.12 0.46 VI 119.73 2.56 0.53 116.18 0.46 VII 113.78 2.56 0.53 110.23 0.46 VIII 14.87 2.56 0.53 11.32 0.46 IX 9.73 2.56 0.53 6.18 0.46 X 3.55 2.56 0.53 0.46 XI 3.55 2.56 0.53 0.46 XII 3.55 2.56 0.53 0.46 Total 763.09 30.72 6.36 720.49 5.52 76 Volume of Water (mil m3) 120 Domestic Industry Agriculture Livestock 100 80 60 40 20 Month 10 11 12 Figure 4.2: Water allocation in Lower Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin in 2020 The results also show that there is a big difference in water demand between upstream and downstream areas in addition to sectors, and there is water shortage in some subbasins during dry months from May to August 77 CHAPTER – CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION To sum up, this study has taken the linear programming theory into consideration solving the basin water allocation planning The target is towards to maximize the economic benefit of water volume provided to various water users, including agricultural production, industrial production, domestic use and livestock In order to come up with the result, a multi-step process has been implemented such as allocable water availability assessment, environmental flow requirement, water demand prediction and water price identification Subsequently, the most important portion, setting up an objective functions and defining constraints has been successfully built; Microsoft Excel is utilized to simulate the equations and solve the problem The outcomes of this study cover the water allocation planning in 2020 of sub-basins: Upper Vu Gia, Upper Thu Bon, Ly Ly River, Tuy Loan River and Lower Vu Gia-Thu Bon, going with relevant discussion and recommendations In addition, a theoretical report of water resource allocation process is also published The total volume of water supplied to Lower Vu Gia-Thu Bon Basin is the highest because of favorable terrain, supporting the development of many socio-economic sectors On the contrary with the steep slope topography in the upper basin, the flat plain covers the majority of the region, building favorable conditions for the development of agriculture and industry Basins located in the coastal area: Lyly River basin, Tuy Loan River basin and Lower Vu Gia – Thu Bon basin requires a much higher water supply compared with Upper Vu Gia basin and Upper Thu Bon basin Rainy season is from October to December in the Vu Gia-Thu Bon basin; during these periods, floods and heavy rainfall occur throughout the basin, leading to serious obstacles for agricultural production In fact, due to adverse weather conditions, famers not cultivate during the flood season; hence, water supplied to agricultural production is minimized approaching zero in most of sub-basins Normally, there are two main crop 78 periods, requiring high volume of water are winter-spring (from January to April) and summer-fall (from May to September) This characteristics cause the gap between volumes of water provided to sectors between months In addition to the dramatic 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Table 4.14: Water allocation in Upper Vu Gia basin in 2020 73 Table 4.15: Water allocation in Lyly River basin in 2020 74 Table 4.16: Water allocation in Tuy Loan River basin in 2020... Comparison between measurement and simulation in Nong Son 57 Figure 4.1: Water allocation in Upper Thu Bon basin in 2020 72 Figure 4.2: Water allocation in Lower Vu Gia - Thu Bon basin in. .. lessened in February at Vu Gia River basin and in March at Thu Bon River basin, taking 1% of the total annual rainfall Table 1.1: Rainfall in the dry season, the three-lowest-month and the lowest month