Water balance for ma river basin in context of climate change thesis of master degree major integrated water resources management

WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis ABSTRACT Water is one of the most common and most important substances on the earth's surface It is essential for the existence of life, and the kinds and amounts of vegetation occurring on various parts of the earth's surface depend more on the quantity of water available than on any other single environmental factor (Kramer, Paul J.; Boyer, 1995) Facing with water crisis has singled out as a major worldwide concern Under the main impact of Climate change, it is considered as an added driver for many of the societal and environmental problems of the 21st century Climate change may affect water systems through increased/unusual spatio-temporal variability, long-term temperature and water balance changes, and sea-level rise which in turn have implications for water security, food security, energy security, health of human and ecosystems, and human livelihoods (Vörösmarty et al 2000; Richardson et al 2011) Water availability will be increasingly affected by climate change, which in Africa could expose 250 million people to greatered water stress In some countries drought could halve the yields from rain-fed agriculture by 2030s Across Sub- Saharan Africa and South and East Asia drought and rainfall variations could lead to large productivity losses in cultivated food staples (Development, 2015) By the contrast of the decrease of water availability and the increase of water demand gather with the conflict between different interests of stakeholders become a huge water management task The Ma River basin is one of the largest rivers in central Viet Nam, orginated from the southern of Dien Bien province, flowing through the Ma river district of Son La province, through Laos and into Vietnam by Ba Thuoc district, Thanh Hoa province Ma river basin has abundant water resources However, the demand for water is rising day by day under the pressure of population and development - social growth Moreover, the uneven distribution of water resources in time and space with the requirements of environmental flows, leading to water shortages appear Besides, the competing interest of different stakeholders even exaggerates the issue Moreover, Le Thi Huong Thom Page i WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis impact of climate change on temperature and annual rainfall also has to concern as its negative influence to water supply capacity The objectives of research are to analyze the water balance in the basin in three scernarios: baseline (2002-2012), future scenarios with socio-economic development text into account impacts of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in 2030s The water use activities in this basin such as irrigation, industry, domestic… are also taken into account In order to get these objectives, WEAP model is implemented to simulate the water balance in the basin MIKE-NAM model is used to simulate the inflow to ungauged basins CROPWAT model is applied to estimate the water requirement for crop The results shows that the imbalances between water supply and water demand occur in the dry season In 2030s, the system cannot supply sufficient water quantity for the projected growing demand of socio-economic development scenario The unmet demand is going up compared to the current scenario However, the situation is much more severe in the scenario in which the climate change impacts are considered Le Thi Huong Thom Page ii WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis DECLARATION I hereby certify that the work which is being presented in this thesis entitled, “Water balance for Ma river basin in context of climate change” in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the Master of Science in Integrated Water Resource Management, is an authentic record of my own work carried out under supervision of Dr Ngo Le An and Associate Professor Nguyen Thu Hien The matter embodied in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any other degree or diploma Date: Le Thi Huong Thom Page iii WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my deepest gratitude and sincere appreciation to my advisor, Doctor Ngo Le An, who is the Deputy Head of ThuyLoi University’s Hydrology and Water Resources Division and my co-advisor, Associate Professor Nguyen Thu Hien, Dean of Thuyloi University’s Water Resources Engineering Faculty for their patient, valuable advice and continuous encouragement throughout the process of this thesis work I would especially like to thank my colleagues in the National Centre of Water Resource Planning and Investigation (NAWAPI), where I am working for supporting me in many ways during the time I am busy with my thesis I would also like to acknowledgement my friends from Thuyloi University including Ms Vu Thi Thu Phuong, Mr Syphachan Phommachan and many others for their help to prepare input for models Finally, I must express my very profound gratitude to my parents and to my husband for providing me with unwavering support and continuous encouragement throughout my years of study and through the process of researching and writing this thesis This accomplishment would not have been possible without them Thank you Le Thi Huong Thom Page iv WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT i DECLARATION iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT iv LIST OF FIGURES vii LIST OF TABLE ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1.2 Problem statement 1.3 Research Objectives 1.4 Research questions 1.5 Methodology 1.6 Structure of the thesis CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Water balance 2.2 Climate change impact on water resources 2.3 Climate change scenarios 2.4 Models for Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) 10 2.4.1 Water Balance Modeling - WEAP 10 2.4.2 Rainfall – runoff Modelling: MIKE 11- NAM 11 2.4.3 CROPWAT 8.0 13 CHAPTER 3: DESCRIPTION OF STUDY SITE 15 3.1 Geographical location and topography 15 3.1.1 Geographical location 15 3.1.2 Topography 16 3.2 Climate 17 3.3 Population - economic and social conditions 20 3.3.1 Local Administration 20 3.3.2 Population 20 3.3.3 Economic and social conditions 20 Le Thi Huong Thom Page v WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis 3.4 Hydrology 23 3.4.1 Main River network .23 3.4.2 Stream network 25 3.4.3 Hydraulic structures .25 3.5 Climate change scenarios for the study areas 25 3.6 Scenarios for water balance 28 CHAPTER 4: WATER BALANCE SIMULATION FOR MA RIVER BASIN 31 4.1 Schematization of the Ma River Basin 31 4.2 Input data 32 4.2.1 Runoff 32 4.2.2 Water demand 42 4.3 Water balance for current scenario in the basin 54 4.4 Water balance calculations for climate change scenarios in the period 2020-2039 (2030s) 57 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 66 5.1 Conclusion 66 5.2 Recommendation 67 REFERENCES .70 APPENDICES 72 Le Thi Huong Thom Page vi WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1.1: THE MA RIVER BASIN FIGURE 2.1: RADIATIVE FORCING OF THE REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS FIGURE 2.2: THE SCHEMATIZATION OF THE MA RIVER BASIN 11 FIGURE 2.3 PROCESSES OF NAM MODEL 13 FIGURE 3.1: THE MA RIVER BASIN .16 FIGURE 3.2.: EXAMPLES OF HADGEM2-AO MODEL’S OUTPUT IN ASIA 26 FIGURE 3.3: GRID OF HADGEM2-AO MODEL (RED DASH-LINE) WITH RAIN GAUGE STATIONS IN THE MA RIVER 26 FIGURE 3.4: RESCALING FACTORS BETWEEN AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL IN THE FUTURE PERIOD AND HISTORICAL PERIOD FOR RCP4.5 .27 FIGURE 3.5: RESCALING FACTORS BETWEEN AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL IN THE FUTURE PERIOD AND HISTORICAL PERIOD FOR RCP8.5 .28 FIGURE 3.6: THE OPERATION CURVE OF TRUNG SON RESERVOIR 29 FIGURE 4.1: SCHEMATIZATION OF THE MA RIVER NETWORK 32 FIGURE 4.2: FOUR SUB-BASINS IN THE MA RIVER BASIN .33 FIGURE 4.3: OBSERVED AND SIMULATED HYDROGRAPH IN CALIBRATION PERIOD (1966-1971) (M3/S) 36 FIGURE 4.4: OBSERVED AND SIMULATED HYDROGRAPH IN VALIDATION PERIOD (1973-1981) (M3/S) .36 FIGURE 4.5: OBSERVED AND SIMULATED HYDROGRAPH IN SIMULATION PERIOD (2002-2012) (M3/S) 39 FIGURE 4.6: OBSERVED AND SIMULATED HYDROGRAPH IN CALIBRATION PERIOD (1962-1966) (M3/S) 40 FIGURE 4.7: OBSERVED AND SIMULATED HYDROGRAPH IN VALIDATION PERIOD (1967-1968) (M3/S) 40 Le Thi Huong Thom Page vii WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis FIGURE 4.8: MONTHLY INFLOW TO THE BASIN IN THE PERIOD 2002-2012 (106 M3) 42 FIGURE 4.9: METEOROLOGICAL DATA IN CROPWAT 45 FIGURE 4.10: RAINFALL DATA IN CROPWAT 45 FIGURE 4.11: CROP DATA IN CROPWAT 46 FIGURE 4.12: SOIL DATA IN CROPWAT 46 FIGURE 4.13: THE IRRIGATION REQUIREMENT FOR EACH AREA (L/S/H) 47 FIGURE 4.14 THE FREQUENCY CURVE OF THE DRIEST MONTHLY FLOW IN CAM THUY STATION (M3/S) 51 FIGURE 4.15: WATER REQUIREMENT BY SECTORS IN THE PERIOD 20022012, CURRENT SCENARIO (106 M3) 55 FIGURE 4.16: UNMET DEMAND BY MONTHS IN THE PERIOD 2002-2012, CURRENT SCENARIO (103 M3) 56 FIGURE 4.17: MONTHLY INFLOWS TO THE AREAS IN KB4.5 SCENARIO 59 FIGURE 4.18: MONTHLY INFLOWS TO THE AREAS IN KB8.5 SCENARIO 59 FIGURE 4.19: COMPARISON OF MONTHLY INFLOWS BETWEEN PAST SCENARIO(BASELINE), KB4.5 AND KB8.5 SCENARIOS 60 FIGURE 4.20: UNMET DEMAND BY MONTHS IN THE PERIOD 2020-2039, KB4.5 SCENARIO (106 M3/S) 61 FIGURE 4.21: TURBINE DISCHARGE AND HYDROPOWER GENERATION OF TRUNG SON RESERVOIR, KB4.5 SCENARIO 62 FIGURE 4.22: UNMET DEMAND BY MONTHS IN THE PERIOD 2020-2039, KB8.5 SCENARIO (106 M3/S) 63 FIGURE 4.23: TURBINE DISCHARGE AND HYDROPOWER GENERATION OF TRUNG SON RESERVOIR, KB8.5 SCENARIO 64 Le Thi Huong Thom Page viii WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis LIST OF TABLE TABLE 2.1: DESCRIPTION OF EACH REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS (RCPS) (IPCC, 2014) 10 TABLE 3.1: MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN THE MA RIVER BASIN 18 TABLE 3.2: MONTHLY AVERAGE HUMIDITY IN THE MA RIVER BASIN 18 TABLE 3.3: ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL IN THE MA RIVER BASIN 19 TABLE 3.4: THE ELEVATION –AREA - STORAGE RELATIONSHIP OF TRUNG SON RESERVOIR 30 TABLE 4.1: DESCRIPTION OF SUB-BASINS 34 TABLE 4.2: NAM PARAMETER EXPLANATION AND BOUNDARIES (SHAMSUDIN & HASHIM, 2002) 34 TABLE 4.3: THE RELIABILITY OF NASH COEFFICIENT 35 TABLE 4.4: PARAMETERS FOR SUB-BASIN 37 TABLE 4.5: FLOWS INSIDE OF SUB-BASIN 37 TABLE 4.6: PARAMETERS FOR SUB-BASIN 38 TABLE 4.7: FLOWS INSIDE OF SUB-BASIN 39 TABLE 4.8: PARAMETERS FOR SUB-BASIN 41 TABLE 4.9: FLOWS INSIDE OF SUB-BASIN 41 TABLE 4.10: IRRIGATION AREAS OF THE MA RIVER BASIN IN THANH HOA 43 TABLE 4.11: LAND AREA OF RICE CULTIVATION IN EACH AREA 44 TABLE 4.12: VIETNAMESE STANDARD FOR LIVESTOCK CONSUMPTION 48 TABLE 4.13: THE QUANTITY OF LIVESTOCK IN THE REGION 48 TABLE 4.14: VIETNAMESE STANDARD FOR DOMESTIC WATER USE 49 TABLE 4.15: POPULATION OF EACH AREA IN THANH HOA PROVINCE 49 TABLE 4.16: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BY REGION IN CURRENT 50 TABLE 4.17: WATER SURFACE AREA FOR AQUACULTURE IN THE BASIN 50 TABLE 4.18: POPULATION IN EACH AREA OF MA RIVER BASIN IN 2030S 52 TABLE 4.19: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BY REGION IN 2030S 53 Le Thi Huong Thom Page ix WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis TABLE 4.20: LAND AREA OF RICE CULTIVATION IN EACH AREA IN 2030S53 TABLE 4.21 WATER SURFACE AREA FOR AQUACULTURE IN THE BASIN IN 2030S 54 TABLE 4.22: MONTHLY FLOWS INSIDE OF EACH SUB-BASIN IN THE PERIOD 2020-2039 FOR KB4.5 58 TABLE 4.23: MONTHLY FLOWS INSIDE OF EACH SUB-BASIN IN THE PERIOD 2020-2039 FOR KB8.5 58 Le Thi Huong Thom Page x WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Table A1.4: Inflows to Mai Chau district Unit: m3/s Mai Chau I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 2002 3.4 3.1 2.8 3.5 6.9 19.8 23.4 24.2 16.5 10.1 6.2 6.0 2003 10.8 9.5 8.3 7.9 12.8 12.6 23.5 28.1 35.5 13.5 9.4 8.7 2004 6.9 6.8 6.3 9.8 12.9 14.0 20.9 25.4 30.5 9.5 7.8 7.3 2005 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.4 8.4 13.9 35.9 47.8 15.4 6.7 4.5 2006 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.2 6.7 9.3 12.9 36.8 8.6 5.4 3.3 3.3 2007 4.7 7.2 9.4 10.6 9.1 5.2 3.7 4.8 4.9 9.9 13.6 19.5 2008 2.8 3.8 4.2 5.0 6.8 11.1 11.8 7.1 8.8 10.8 15.4 1.5 2009 2.0 2.7 3.0 4.4 7.7 5.2 14.4 8.9 10.8 9.6 3.2 3.3 2010 3.6 2.8 2.4 3.2 4.5 3.9 6.1 21.6 17.4 13.0 4.3 3.3 2011 2.7 2.5 4.6 3.5 7.4 15.8 26.4 31.9 33.0 17.4 8.6 5.8 2012 5.0 4.1 3.6 3.6 8.2 11.0 8.6 31.5 26.7 8.5 3.5 2.7 Appendix 2: Water Demand for Irrigation of Ma River basin in Thanh Hoa province in a year Table A2.1: Water demand for irrigation in Muong Lat Irrigation demand The demand collect water from river (106 m3) (106 m3) 388.80 1.45 1.82 0.00 466.56 1.75 2.18 622.08 0.00 622.08 2.33 2.91 IV 25.92 492.48 518.40 1.94 2.42 V 0.00 1944.00 1944.00 7.27 9.09 VI 0.00 25.92 25.92 0.10 0.12 VII 0.00 336.96 336.96 1.26 1.58 VIII 0.00 803.52 803.52 3.01 3.76 Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) Total (m3/ha) I 388.80 0.00 II 466.56 III Le Thi Huong Thom Page 74 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Irrigation demand The demand collect water from river (106 m3) (106 m3) 77.76 0.29 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 492.48 0.00 492.48 1.84 2.30 XII 1995.84 0.00 1995.84 7.47 9.34 Total 3991.68 3680.64 7672.32 28.71 35.89 Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) Total (m3/ha) IX 0.00 77.76 X 0.00 XI Table A2.2: Water demand for irrigation in Quan Son Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) Total (m3/ha) I 570.24 0.00 II 518.40 III (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) 570.24 1.33 1.67 0.00 518.40 1.21 1.52 544.32 0.00 544.32 1.27 1.59 IV 25.92 492.48 518.40 1.21 1.52 V 0.00 1840.32 1840.32 4.31 5.39 VI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 VII 0.00 129.60 129.60 0.30 0.38 VIII 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IX 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 544.32 0.00 544.32 1.27 1.59 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 5.22 6.52 Total 4432.32 2462.40 6894.72 16.14 20.18 Le Thi Huong Thom Irrigation demand Page 75 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Table A2.3: Water demand for irrigation in Quan Hoa Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) I 570.24 II Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) 0.00 570.24 1.30 1.63 518.40 0.00 518.40 1.19 1.48 III 544.32 0.00 544.32 1.25 1.56 IV 25.92 492.48 518.40 1.19 1.48 V 0.00 1840.32 1840.32 4.21 5.26 VI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 VII 0.00 129.60 129.60 0.30 0.37 VIII 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IX 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 544.32 0.00 544.32 1.25 1.56 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 5.10 6.38 Total 4432.32 2462.40 6894.72 15.78 19.72 Table A2.4: Water demand for irrigation in Ba Thuoc Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) I 362.88 II Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) 0.00 362.88 1.96 2.45 492.48 0.00 492.48 2.66 3.33 III 518.40 0.00 518.40 2.80 3.50 IV 77.76 492.48 570.24 3.08 3.85 V 0.00 1477.44 1477.44 7.98 9.98 VI 0.00 311.04 311.04 1.68 2.10 VII 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 76 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) VIII 0.00 IX Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 544.32 0.00 544.32 2.94 3.68 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 12.04 15.05 Total 4224.96 2280.96 6505.92 35.14 43.93 Table A2.5: Water demand for irrigation in Cam Thuy Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) I 362.88 II Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) 0.00 362.88 2.89 3.61 492.48 0.00 492.48 3.92 4.90 III 518.40 0.00 518.40 4.12 5.15 IV 77.76 492.48 570.24 4.54 5.67 V 0.00 1477.44 1477.44 11.75 14.69 VI 0.00 311.04 311.04 2.47 3.09 VII 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 VIII 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IX 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 544.32 0.00 544.32 4.33 5.41 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 17.73 22.16 Total 4224.96 2280.96 6505.92 51.75 64.69 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 77 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Table A2.6: Water demand for irrigation in Vinh Loc Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) I 388.80 II Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) 0.00 388.80 3.72 4653450.00 518.40 0.00 518.40 4.96 6204600.00 III 440.64 0.00 440.64 4.22 5273910.00 IV 155.52 492.48 648.00 6.20 7755750.00 V 0.00 1555.20 1555.20 14.89 18613800.00 VI 0.00 751.68 751.68 7.20 8996670.00 VII 0.00 336.96 336.96 3.23 4032990.00 VIII 0.00 51.84 51.84 0.50 620460.00 IX 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 492.48 0.00 492.48 4.72 5894370.00 XII 2177.28 0.00 2177.28 20.85 26059320.00 Total 4173.12 3188.16 7361.28 70.48 88105320.00 Table A2.7: Water demand for irrigation in Thach Thanh Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) Total (m3/ha) I 388.80 0.00 II 518.40 III (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) 388.80 4.03 5041764.00 0.00 518.40 5.38 6722352.00 440.64 0.00 440.64 4.57 5713999.20 IV 155.52 492.48 648.00 6.72 8402940.00 V 0.00 1555.20 1555.20 16.13 20167056.00 VI 0.00 751.68 751.68 7.80 9747410.40 VII 0.00 336.96 336.96 3.50 4369528.80 Le Thi Huong Thom Irrigation demand Page 78 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) Total (m3/ha) VIII 0.00 51.84 IX 0.00 X (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) 51.84 0.54 672235.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 492.48 0.00 492.48 5.11 6386234.40 XII 2177.28 0.00 2177.28 22.59 28233878.40 Total 4173.12 3188.16 7361.28 76.37 95457398.40 Irrigation demand Appendix 3: Water demand for livestock in each region of Ma River basin in Thanh Hoa province in a year Table A3.1: Water demand for livestock in Thanh Hoa in a year Demand (m3) Region Buffalo Cow pig Poultry Muong Lat 251303 482895 319740 2441120 Quan Son 349853 374490 411720 558085 Quan Hoa 384345 758835 556260 469755 Ba Thuoc 965790 453330 674520 1850915 Cam Thuy 837675 103478 722700 1995455 Vinh Loc 359708 428693 584730 3601455 Thach Thanh 891878 335070 788400 1814780 Ma river downstream 255245 1003732 1500807 6486634 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 79 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Appendix 4: Water demand for domestic in each area of Ma River basin in Thanh Hoa in a year Table A4.1: Water demand for domestic in Thanh Hoa in a year Demand (m3) Region Urban Rural Muong Lat 93075 532170 Quan Son 100521 556807.5 Quan Hoa 145197 688207.5 Ba Thuoc 111690 1586655 Cam Thuy 204765 1611292.5 Vinh Loc 104244 1302502.5 Thach Thanh 256887 2184525 Ma river downstream 3909150 4020840 Appendix 5: Water demand for industrial in each region of Ma River basin in Thanh Hoa for a year Table A5.1: Water demand for industry in Thanh Hoa in a year Region Demand (m3) Muong Lat 60000 Quan Son 294545 Quan Hoa 1555455 Ba Thuoc 1353636 Cam Thuy 4263636 Vinh Loc 7653636 Thach Thanh 10357273 Ma river downstream 81745682 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 80 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Appendix 6: Water Demand for aquaculture in each region of Ma River basin in Thanh Hoa in year Table A6.1: Water demand for aquaculture in Thanh Hoa in year Region Demand (m3) Muong Lat 276000 Quan Son 612000 Quan Hoa 564000 Ba Thuoc 1800000 Cam Thuy 3203900 Vinh Loc 3576000 Thach Thanh 9156000 Ma river downstream 19272000 Appendix 7: Water Demand for irrigation, domestic, industry and aquaculture with water balance scenarios Table A7.1: Water demand for irrigation in Muong Lat in 2030s Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) Percentage using monthly (%) I 570.24 0.00 570.24 1.84 2.29 4.44 II 544.32 0.00 544.32 1.75 2.19 4.24 III 622.08 0.00 622.08 2.00 2.50 4.85 IV 440.64 544.32 984.96 3.17 3.96 7.68 V 2903.04 2903.04 9.34 11.68 22.63 VI 1347.84 1347.84 4.34 5.42 10.51 VII 1373.76 1373.76 4.42 5.53 10.71 VIII 0.00 1192.32 1192.32 3.84 4.80 9.29 IX 0.00 518.40 518.40 1.67 2.09 4.04 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 81 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) Percentage using monthly (%) XI 544.32 0.00 544.32 1.75 2.19 4.24 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 7.17 8.97 17.37 7879.68 12830.40 41.29 51.61 100.00 Total 4950.72 Table A7.2: Water demand for irrigation in Quan Son in 2030s Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) I 570.24 II Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) Percentage using monthly (%) 0.00 570.24 1.15 1.43 4.49 544.32 0.00 544.32 1.10 1.37 4.29 III 622.08 0.00 622.08 1.25 1.57 4.90 IV 440.64 544.32 984.96 1.98 2.48 7.76 V 0.00 2851.20 2851.20 5.74 7.17 22.45 VI 0.00 1321.92 1321.92 2.66 3.33 10.41 VII 0.00 1347.84 1347.84 2.71 3.39 10.61 VIII 0.00 1166.40 1166.40 2.35 2.93 9.18 IX 0.00 518.40 518.40 1.04 1.30 4.08 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 544.32 0.00 544.32 1.10 1.37 4.29 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 4.49 5.61 17.55 Total 4950.72 7750.08 12700.80 25.57 31.96 100.00 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 82 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Table A7.3: Water demand for irrigation in Quan Hoa in 2030s Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) I 570.24 II Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) Percentage using monthly (%) 0.00 570.24 1.12 1.40 4.49 544.32 0.00 544.32 1.07 1.34 4.29 III 622.08 0.00 622.08 1.22 1.53 4.90 IV 440.64 544.32 984.96 1.94 2.42 7.76 V 0.00 2851.20 2851.20 5.61 7.01 22.45 VI 0.00 1321.92 1321.92 2.60 3.25 10.41 VII 0.00 1347.84 1347.84 2.65 3.32 10.61 VIII 0.00 1166.40 1166.40 2.30 2.87 9.18 IX 0.00 518.40 518.40 1.02 1.28 4.08 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 544.32 0.00 544.32 1.07 1.34 4.29 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 4.39 5.48 17.55 Total 4950.72 7750.08 12700.80 25.00 31.24 100.00 Table A7.4: Water demand for irrigations in Ba Thuoc in 2030s Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river ((106 m3) Percentage using monthly (%) I 570.24 0.00 570.24 2.65 3.31 4.48 II 544.32 0.00 544.32 2.53 3.16 4.28 III 622.08 0.00 622.08 2.89 3.61 4.89 IV 440.64 544.32 984.96 4.58 5.72 7.74 V 0.00 2851.20 2851.20 13.25 16.56 22.40 VI 0.00 1347.84 1347.84 6.26 7.83 10.59 VII 0.00 1373.76 1373.76 6.38 7.98 10.79 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 83 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis VIII 0.00 1166.40 1166.40 5.42 6.77 9.16 IX 0.00 518.40 518.40 2.41 3.01 4.07 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 518.4 0.00 518.40 2.41 3.01 4.07 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 10.36 12.95 17.52 7801.92 12726.72 59.13 73.91 100.00 Total 4924.80 Table A7.5: Water demand for irrigation in Cam Thuy in 2030s Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) Percentage using monthly (%) I 570.24 0.00 570.24 3.90 4.88 4.48 II 544.32 0.00 544.32 3.72 4.65 4.28 III 622.08 0.00 622.08 4.26 5.32 4.89 IV 440.64 544.32 984.96 6.74 8.42 7.74 V 0.00 2851.20 2851.20 19.50 24.38 22.40 VI 0.00 1347.84 1347.84 9.22 11.52 10.59 VII 0.00 1373.76 1373.76 9.40 11.75 10.79 VIII 0.00 1166.40 1166.40 7.98 9.97 9.16 IX 0.00 518.40 518.40 3.55 4.43 4.07 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 518.40 0.00 518.40 3.55 4.43 4.07 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 15.25 19.06 17.52 7801.92 12726.72 87.05 108.81 100.00 Total 4924.80 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 84 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Table A7.6: Water demand for irrigation in Vinh Loc in 2030s Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) I 570.24 II Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) Percentage using monthly (%) 0.00 570.24 4.70 5.87 4.51 544.32 0.00 544.32 4.48 5.60 4.30 III 622.08 0.00 622.08 5.12 6.40 4.92 IV 440.64 544.32 984.96 8.11 10.14 7.79 V 0.00 2851.20 2851.20 23.48 29.35 22.54 VI 0.00 1321.92 1321.92 10.89 13.61 10.45 VII 0.00 1347.84 1347.84 11.10 13.87 10.66 VIII 0.00 1166.40 1166.40 9.61 12.01 9.22 IX 0.00 492.48 492.48 4.06 5.07 3.89 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 518.40 0.00 518.40 4.27 5.34 4.10 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 18.36 22.95 17.62 Total 4924.80 7724.16 12648.96 104.16 130.21 100.00 Table A7.7: Water demand for irrigation in Thach Thanh in 2030s Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) I 570.24 II Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) Percentage using monthly (%) 0.00 570.24 5.09 6.36 4.51 544.32 0.00 544.32 4.86 6.07 4.30 III 622.08 0.00 622.08 5.55 6.94 4.92 IV 440.64 544.32 984.96 8.79 10.98 7.79 V 0.00 2851.20 2851.20 25.44 31.80 22.54 VI 0.00 1321.92 1321.92 11.79 14.74 10.45 VII 0.00 1347.84 1347.84 12.03 15.03 10.66 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 85 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) VIII 0.00 IX Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) Percentage using monthly (%) 1166.40 1166.40 10.41 13.01 9.22 0.00 492.48 492.48 4.39 5.49 3.89 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 518.40 0.00 518.40 4.63 5.78 4.10 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 19.89 24.86 17.62 Total 4924.80 7724.16 12648.96 112.85 141.07 100.00 Table A7.8: Water demand for irrigation in Ma River downstream in 2030s Month Winter – spring rice (m3/ha) Summer– autumn rice (m3/ha) I 570.24 II Total (m3/ha) Irrigation demand (106 m3) The demand collect water from river (106 m3) Percentage using monthly (%) 0.00 570.24 12.46 15.58 4.51 544.32 0.00 544.32 11.90 14.87 4.30 III 622.08 0.00 622.08 13.59 16.99 4.92 IV 440.64 544.32 984.96 21.53 26.91 7.79 V 0.00 2851.20 2851.20 62.31 77.89 22.54 VI 0.00 1321.92 1321.92 28.89 36.11 10.45 VII 0.00 1347.84 1347.84 29.46 36.82 10.66 VIII 0.00 1166.40 1166.40 25.49 31.86 9.22 IX 0.00 492.48 492.48 10.76 13.45 3.89 X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 XI 518.40 0.00 518.40 11.33 14.16 4.10 XII 2229.12 0.00 2229.12 48.72 60.89 17.62 Total 4924.80 7724.16 12648.96 276.43 345.54 100.00 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 86 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Table A7.9: Water demand for domestic in 2030s Demand (m3) Region Urban Rural Muong Lat 697305 784846 Quan Son 731272 823076 Quan Hoa 915088 1029970 Ba Thuoc 1990018 2239847 Cam Thuy 2069938 2329800 Vinh Loc 1640366 1846299 Thach Thanh 2795216 3146130 Ma river downstream 6989038 7866450 Table A7.10: Water demand for industry in 2030s Area Demand (m3) Muong Lat 225532 Quan Son 1107155 Quan Hoa 5846735 Ba Thuoc 5088129 Cam Thuy 16026409 Vinh Loc 28768941 Thach Thanh 38931530 Ma river downstream 307270508 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 87 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Table A7.11: Water demand for aquaculture in 2030s Region Demand (m3) Muong Lat 346922 Quan Son 769262 Quan Hoa 708928 Ba Thuoc 2262536 Cam Thuy 4027314 Vinh Loc 4494905 Thach Thanh 11508767 Ma river downstream 24224219 Le Thi Huong Thom Page 88 ... situation of using water in Ma River basin Le Thi Huong Thom Page WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis - Establishment of water balance model on basin and... average increase of 4.6% In the ranking of the Provincial Le Thi Huong Thom Page 20 WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Competitiveness Index of Vietnam in. .. Le Thi Huong Thom Page WATER BALANCE FOR MA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis regions contain of Northwest and Truong Son, Ma River basin has formed many regions have different