Water balance in the huong river basin in context of climate change

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE NONG BAO ANH MSc Thesis on Integrated Water Resources Management May 2015 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY NONG BAO ANH WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Major: Integrated Water Resources Management THESIS OF MASTER DEGREE Supervisor (s): Assoc Prof Nguyen Thu Hien Dr Ngo Le An This reseacrch is done for the partial fulfilment of requirement for Master of Science Degree at Thuy Loi University (This Mater Programme is supported by NICHE – VNM 106 Project) May 2015 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Nong Bao Anh Page WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT DECLARATION ACKNOWLEDGMENT ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES 11 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 13 1.1 Background 13 1.2 Problem statement 14 1.3 Research questions 15 1.4 Methodology 16 1.5 Structure of the thesis 18 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 19 2.1 Water allocation: An overview 19 2.2 Integrated Water Resources Management 20 2.3 Climate change impacts on water resources 22 2.4 Climate change scenarios 24 2.5 Models for IWRM 26 CHAPTER 3: DESCRIPTION OF STUDY SITE 32 3.1 Geographical location and topography 32 3.2 Climate 33 3.2.1 Temperature 33 3.2.2 Humidity 34 3.2.3 Evaporation 34 3.2.4 Rainfall 35 3.2.5 Hydrology conditions 37 3.3 Socio-economic development 40 3.3.1 Population 40 3.3.2 Economy structure 41 3.4 River network 41 3.5 Water Storage 41 3.6 Water use activities 43 Nong Bao Anh Page WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis CHAPTER 4: WATER BALANCE SIMULATION FOR THE HUONG RIVER BASIN 46 4.1 Schematization of the Huong River Basin 46 4.2 Data Requirements 48 4.2.1 Runoff 48 4.2.2 Water demand 54 4.2.3 The return flow 58 4.2.4 Reservoirs 59 4.3 The computation of scenarios 59 CHAPTER 5: RESULTS ANALYSIS 61 5.1 Water supply and water requirement results 61 5.1.1 Water supply 61 5.1.2 Water requirements 62 5.2 Results analysis 68 5.2.1 SC1 scenario 68 5.2.3 SC2 scenario 76 5.2.2 SC3 scenario 78 5.2.3 SC4 scenario 80 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 84 6.1 Conclusions 84 6.2 Recommendations 85 REFERENCES 86 APPENDICES 89 Nong Bao Anh Page WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis ABSTRACT Water is essential for human, however, is finite and vulnerable (ICWE, 1992) In recent years, water crisis has been singled out as a major worldwide concern World-wide water demand has been reported to increase by over six times during the last century (Gourbesville, 2008) It is claimed to be the consequence of growth in world population, which has been tripled during the last century, and speedy industry enlargement as well as agriculture development As a result, developing countries are those who mostly have to face with water scarcity Moreover, in recent years, the impacts of climate change on water scarcity have become an emerging concerned Extreme weather events, increasing uneven distribution of seasonal water leading to drought, floods and, for example, are some negative impacts of climate change, which has been alarmingly threatening the water balance in developing countries This research investigates the water availability and water demand in Huong River Basin in order to find out appropriate management measure to mitigate the water shortage problem in dry season Huong River Basin which lies within Thu Thien Hue province, located in the specific monsoon climate area of Central Part of Vietnam with severe hydrological regime: very long dry season, short rain season but often with very large runoff This area usually witnesses water shortage in the long dry season Bearing the stress of explosive increase of water demand from excessive population growth and blossoming economic development, combined with the decrease of water supply in dry season as a result of climate change impacts, the Huong River Basin’s water management need to be exquisitely investigated The water use activities in this basin include domestic, irrigation, industry, livestock and aquaculture The purposes of this study are to analyze the water balance of Huong River Basin in three scenarios, the current scenario in 2010 and the future scenario in the future with the projected socio-economic development as well as Nong Bao Anh Page WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis changes in the climate system characteristic according to B2 scenario To complete this task, the WEAP model is implemented to simulate the water balance in the basin with the help of MIKE-NAM model to calculate the water inflow to river basin from rainfall data and CROPWAT to compute the water requirement for crop The research shows there are currently imbalances between water supply and water demand in the dry season especially in March and April In 2030, the system cannot supply sufficient water quantity for the projected growing demand of socioeconomic development scenario in June and July which are in dry season, right after the periodic flood The unmet demand is slightly go up compared to the current scenario However, the situation is much more severe in the scenario in which the climate change impacts are considered The water deficit is about four times bigger than it was in the scenario which only reflects the socio-economic development Moreover, it appears from February to July within different areas After analyzing the results of simulation models, several structure and non-structure solutions are proposed Nong Bao Anh Page WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis DECLARATION I hereby certify that the work which is being presented in this thesis entitled, ―Water balance in the Huong River Basin in context of climate change‖ in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the Master of Science in Integrated Water Resource Management, is an authentic record of my own work carried out under supervision of Associate Professor Nguyen Thu Hien and Dr Ngo Le An The matter embodied in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any other degree or diploma Date: Nong Bao Anh Page WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my deep gratitude to many people who helped to complete this Thesis at its best First and foremost I wish to thank to my supervisor, Associate Professor Nguyen Thu Hien, Dean of Thuyloi University’s Water Resources Engineering Faculty, for her instruction, understanding and also, patience during the time I conducted this Thesis With her considerable guidance and shared experience from many year of being water resources expert, I am able to bring this research into fruition However, it is not only just during this time she is supporting me, but also for all the way long of seven years I have learnt in this University from my Bachelor Degree to this Master course, she always be there willing to instruct me about professional researching skills, turning me into an independence thinker which assists me to grow as a lecturer, a researcher and a better learner I would also wish to express my deeply gratefulness to my second supervisor, Doctor Ngo Le An, who is the Deputy Head of Thuyloi University’s Hydrology and Water Resources Division for his tutor and corrections in the application of simulation models, the field which I had very few experience His mentorship was paramount in providing a well rounded experience consistent my long-term career goals He was the one to point out for me the importance of balancing the theoretical knowledge and ability to mastering in models use in Water Engineering and Water Management, at the same time, was the one enable me to so He encourages me to run all the models used in my thesis on my own but was always there as a blanket to help me to learn from mistakes I am not sure many postgraduate students are given such treasured opportunity like mine For everything you have done for me, Assoc Prof Hien and Dr An, I thank you I would especially like to thank the Management Board including members from Thuyloi University, Hanoi University of Natural Resources and Environment Nong Bao Anh Page WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis University and UNESCO-IHE for organizing this wonderful Master course and providing me a chance to sharpen my professional knowledge Many thanks to my colleagues in the Department of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, HUNRE where I am working for supporting me in many way during the time I am busy with my Thesis I would also like to acknowledge my friends from Thuyloi University including Ms Dao Thi Xuyen, Mr Nguyen Son Tung and many others for their help with the preparing input for models Finally, words cannot express how grateful I am to my parents and my girlfriend who is currently staying in England for theirs unwavering support and continuous encouragement throughout my year of study and through the process of researching and writing this Thesis This achievement would not be possible without them, thank you Nong Bao Anh Page WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Unit: MCM Figure 5.13: The changes in the inflow of SC4 scenario compared to SC3 scenario Table 5.7: Comparison of water requirement by sectors between SC1, SC3 and SC4 scenario Scenario Water use sector Domestic Agriculture Industry Aquaculture Total SC1 scenario 48.1 462 37.2 111 658.2 SC3 scenario 81.1 522.2 76 38 718 SC4 scenario 81.1 530.4 76 38 726.3 Unit: MCM Due to the extension of the gap between water supply and demand, particularly the decrease of the total inflow, water shortage in this scenario is sharply expanded to 33.1 MCM Nong Bao Anh Page 81 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Unit: MCM Figure 5.14: Monthly unmet demand in 2030, SC4 scenario Unit: MCM Figure 5.15: Monthly inflow to the area Nong Bao Anh Page 82 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis An increasing trend of water shortage is noticeable in this scenario with a bigger range and higher level In this case, water deficit appears during dry season from February to July, especially in April and July where the least inflows are witnessed Not only the North-western part of the basin is affected by water deficit like the other two scenarios, but also the centre part of the basin observed the lack of water in two sectors, including agriculture and aquaculture The amount of water that cannot be satisfied by the rainfall in the centre part is 2.7 MCM with 2.6 MCM in agriculture sector and 0.1 MCM in aquaculture sector This part of the basin takes water from the Huu Trach River with a relatively high inflow of 1.25 billion m3 compared to other parts of the basin, however, the low flow in dry season under climate change condition cannot be sufficient for the growing demand of water for irrigation, livestock and aquaculture The water deficit in the upstream area of Bo River in Agriculture node rose about four times to the number of 30.3 MCM in comparison with SC3 scenario Nong Bao Anh Page 83 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Conclusions From the thesis, several following achievements and conclusions can be drawn: Information about the overview of water allocation and Integrated Water Resources Management in the world, climate change and the impacts of climate change on water resources was gathered The data on climate characteristics, socio-economy development and the impacts of climate change were collected and synthesized to analyze the water status in Huong River Basin through water consumed area division, runoff simulation and water demand computation Simulation models were investigated and compared WEAP model was successfully applied to simulate water balance situation at the present and projected future conditions of 2030 in climate change context with the help of MIKE-NAM model in calculating inflow and CROPWAT in computing water requirement for crop The results in current scenario and future scenarios were analyzed It shown that, in current scenario, water supply is not sufficient for irrigation and livestock in NorthWestern part of the province which belongs to the drainage area of Bo River’s upstream The current system can only cover 70-75% of the demand in dry season, particularly March and April In 2030, without considering the impacts of climate change, the water shortage appear in the same place with a slight increase in the quantity, on the other hand, with the consideration of climate change impacts, the water deficit problem will be more serious of about forth time larger than the shortage without climate change impacts of 33.1 MCM in total Moreover, water shortage will also emerge in the Center part of the basin corresponding to Huong Tra and Huong Thuy District in agriculture and aquaculture node The reservoirs play a vital role in regulating water for dry season Nong Bao Anh Page 84 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis The structure solutions and non-structure solutions are proposed to mitigate the water shortage problem at the present and in the future with the consideration of climate change impacts 6.2 Recommendations The following recommendations can be made from the conclusions: The measures for water deficit problem in dry season have to be the combination of both structure solution and non-structure solution Since the lack of water for agriculture is the main trouble in this area, the structure solutions can be applied the supply side can be improving distribution system such as widening canals, dredging and reinforcing existing channel, increase pumping capacity or building more reservoirs since the redundant water in the rainy season is extremely large Along with the structure solution, the non-structure solutions have to be applying to manage the demand side such as changing crop pattern to the new less consumed water one, changing irrigation practices Moreover, in the higher level of management, introducing financial incentives, legal instrument and institutional arrangement practices must be considered as the prominent management measure such as volumetric water pricing, water right, quota control, raising awareness The choosing of water management measure must be taken place with the concern of cost effectiveness Further study in Huong River Basin should concern about water quality, evaluation of groundwater, as well as more specific data about the distribution systems in order to fully understand the situation Nong Bao Anh Page 85 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis REFERENCES Arnell, N W (1999) Climate change and global water resources Global Environmental Change, , 31-49 Beck, L & Bernauer, T (2011) How will combined changes in water demand and climate affect water availability in the zambezi river basin? Global Environmental Change, 21 (3), 1061-1072 Biswas, A K (2008) Integrated water resources management: is it working? Water Resources Development, 24 (1), 5-22 Cap-Net (2009) IWRM as a tool for Adaptation to Climate Change – Training manual and Facilitators Guide Cap-Net: Delft, The Netherlands http://www.cap- net.org/sites/cap-net.org/files/CC&%20IWRM%20_English%20manual_.pdf Dawadi, S & Ahmad, S (2013) Evaluating the impact of demand-side management on water resources under changing climatic conditions and increasing population Journal Of Environmental Management, 114, 261-275 Frederick, K D & Major, D C (1997) Climate change and water resources Climatic Change, 37 (1), 7-23 Gooch, G D & Stalnacke, P (2003) Integrated scenarios the key for successful water and river basin management.,17-22 Gourbesville, P (2008) Challenges for integrated water resources management Physics And Chemistry Of The Earth, Parts A/B/C, 33 (5), 284-289 Government Of Vietnam (2013) Statistical yearbook 2012 Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House Global WaterPartnership (2000) IntegratedWaterResourcesManagement TAC 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interval approach Advances In Water Resources, 34 (7), 873-886 Nong Bao Anh Page 87 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Ragab, R & Prudhomme, C (2002) Sw—soil and water: climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions: prospective and challenges for the 21st century Biosystems Engineering, 81 (1), 3-34 Speed, R (2013) Basin water allocation planning Metro Manila, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, GIWP, UNESCO, and WWF-UK Savenije, H & Van Der Zaag, P (2008) Integrated water resources management: concepts and issues Physics And Chemistry Of The Earth, Parts A/B/C, 33 (5), 290297 Seppelt, R., Voinov, A., Lange, S & Bankamp, D (2012) Analysis of water resource allocation and water quality for low flow river in mediterranean watershed: hydrological simulation model overview Shamsudin, S., & Hashim, N (2002) Rainfall runoff simulation using MIKE11 NAM Journal Of Civil Engineering, 15(2) Tran Thuc, (2010) Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Huong River Basin and adaptation measures VNU Journal Of Science, 26, 210-217 Tsur, Y., Dinar, A., & Doukkali, R (2002) Efficiency and Equity Implications of Irrigation Water Pricing In the International Conference on Irrigation Water Policies: Micro and Macro considerations Agadir: World Bank UNDP (2006) Beyond scarcity: power, poverty and the global water crisis Human development report [report] New York: UNDP, 5-6 VNCID (2010) SITUATION AND ORIENTATION OF INTERGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN VIETNAM Hanoi Yates, D., Purkey, D., Sieber, J., Huber-Lee, A., Galbraith, H., & West, J et al (2009) Climate Driven Water Resources Model of the Sacramento Basin, California Journal Of Water Resources Planning And Management, 3(135), 303313 Nong Bao Anh Page 88 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: The inflow to sub-basins Table A1.1: The monthly inflow to sub-basin in 2010 in SC1 scenario Subbasins NorthWestern region Central region Southern region Eastern region I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 93.7 53.9 46.4 43.0 51.1 93.0 176.7 329.4 183.9 728.4 624.5 151.3 87.8 47.8 37.6 30.7 26.5 56.3 83.8 251.1 111.5 504.2 475.0 107.5 116.3 67.6 52.7 40.1 31.7 84.7 78.3 294.3 112.5 469.0 503.7 119.1 24.3 13.5 14.5 12.2 8.9 8.0 19.2 80.7 27.3 157.0 120.5 31.6 Unit: MCM Table A1.2: The monthly inflow to sub-basin in 2030 in SC2 & SC3 scenario Subbasins NorthWestern region Central region Southern region Eastern region I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 136.4 136.2 64.3 92.3 99.6 36.4 38.4 233.4 359.4 466.0 144.5 431.5 115.3 78.0 44.1 47.4 63.1 25.5 30.2 191.9 241.6 316.0 136.3 269.1 145.8 77.5 53.9 40.0 81.1 31.2 32.3 196.5 274.0 376.7 196.3 255.9 43.7 22.7 13.9 10.3 7.5 4.7 3.8 42.0 70.5 68.8 44.4 56.8 Unit: MCM Table A1.3: The monthly inflow to sub-basin in 2030 in SC4 scenario Subbasins NorthWestern region Central region Southern region Eastern region I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 105.8 61.0 55.2 53.3 69.7 56.7 24.3 144.3 292.0 156.7 465.5 113.4 64.3 36.0 28.1 19.4 26.8 50.6 23.7 176.8 231.2 90.5 361.0 126.9 74.0 43.9 34.9 23.8 27.5 61.8 33.7 221.9 241.1 96.8 396.8 154.6 24.4 18.2 13.9 12.8 37.0 123.8 9.8 8.2 7.7 44.2 50.0 33.3 Unit: MCM Nong Bao Anh Page 89 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis APPENDIX 2: Water requirement for sectors Table A2.1: Monthly Water requirement for Agriculture in region in SC1 & SC2 scenario Water user regions NorthWest Central South East I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 13.3 12.0 13.3 12.9 13.3 12.9 13.3 13.3 12.9 13.3 12.9 13.3 4.1 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.9 4.1 10.6 9.6 10.6 10.3 10.6 10.3 10.6 11.2 10.1 11.2 10.8 11.2 10.8 11.2 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.9 4.1 10.6 10.3 10.6 10.3 10.6 11.2 10.8 11.2 10.8 11.2 Unit: MCM Table A2.2: Monthly Water requirement for Agriculture in region in SC3 scenario Water user regions NorthWest Central South East I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 16.5 14.9 16.5 16.0 16.5 16.0 16.5 16.5 16.0 16.5 16.0 16.5 3.4 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 11.1 10.1 11.1 10.8 11.1 10.8 11.1 13.3 12.0 13.3 12.9 13.3 12.9 13.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 11.1 10.8 11.1 10.8 11.1 13.3 12.9 13.3 12.9 13.3 Unit: MCM Table A2.3: Monthly Water requirement for Agriculture in region in SC4 scenario Water user regions NorthWest Central South East I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 16.5 14.9 16.5 16.0 16.5 16.0 16.5 16.5 16.0 16.5 16.0 16.5 4.1 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.9 4.1 11.1 10.1 11.1 10.8 11.1 10.8 11.1 13.3 12.0 13.3 12.9 13.3 12.9 13.3 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.9 4.1 11.1 10.8 11.1 10.8 11.1 13.3 12.9 13.3 12.9 13.3 Unit: MCM Nong Bao Anh Page 90 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Table A2.4: Water requirement for Domestic usage in region in scenarios Scenario Water user region North-West Centre South East Total SC1& SC2 scenario 6.3 2.3 6.7 32.8 48.1 SC3 scenario 12.2 4.3 11.7 53.6 81.8 SC4 scenario 12.2 4.3 11.7 53.6 81.8 Unit: MCM Table A2.6: Water requirement for Industry in regions in scenarios Scenario Water user region North-West South East Total SC1&SC2 scenario 5.5 11.4 20.3 37.2 SC3 scenario 11.2 23.2 41.6 76 SC4 scenario 11.2 23.2 41.6 76 Unit: MCM Table A2.7: Water requirement for Aquaculture in regions in scenarios Scenario Water user region North-West Centre South East Total SC1&SC2 scenario 27.5 6.5 31 46.1 111 SC3 scenario 9.4 2.2 10.6 15.8 38 SC4 scenario 9.4 2.2 10.6 15.8 38 Unit: MCM Nong Bao Anh Page 91 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis APPENDIX 3: The reservoirs’information Figure A3.1: The elevation – storage relationship curve of Binh Dien Reservoir Figure A3.2: The operation curve of Binh Dien Reservoir Nong Bao Anh Page 92 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Figure A3.3: The elevation – storage relationship curve of Binh Dien Reservoir Figure A3.4: The operation curve of Binh Dien Reservoir Nong Bao Anh Page 93 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Figure A3.5: The elevation – storage relationship curve of Binh Dien Reservoir Figure A3.6: The operation curve of Binh Dien Reservoir Nong Bao Anh Page 94 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis APPENDIX 4: The flow frequency curve Figure A4.1: The flow frequency curve in Phu Oc station without climate change impacts Figure A4.2: The flow frequency curve in Phu Oc station with climate change impacts Nong Bao Anh Page 95 ... 2015 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Nong Bao Anh Page WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis TABLE OF CONTENTS... Figure 1.1: The location of Huong River Basin Nong Bao Anh Page 13 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis 1.2 Problem statement Huong River basin lies in Thua... Page 16 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis The approach of the study is using models to simulate the water status in Huong River Basin, therefore, a