cua nhieu nha kinh te va td chiic qudc te. Tuy nhien, do cdn lo ngai ve nhiing bat dn cua nen kinh te Phap va chau Au, nen eac hd gia dinh tiep tuc duy tri khoan tiet kiem Idn trong c[r]
(1)KINH TE - PHAP LUAT CHAU AU
^'
KEVH TE CHAU AU JVAM
Nam 2010 la mdt nam day bien ddng va kho khan ddi vdi chau Au Cd hai nhan td co ban giup kinh te chau Au hdi phuc manh nira dau nam nay, dd la: nhu cau ve hang xuat khau chau Au tang manh d nudc ngoai va hieu qua tich circ cua cae gdi kich thich tai khoa dirge ehinh phu cac nudc EU dua de ddi phd vdi khung hoang kinh te, Tuy nhien, tdc tang trudng kha an tugng dd da eham ban lai nira cudi nam 2010, chii yeu cugc khung hoang ng, nhu cau ve hang hda chau Au d nude ngoai giam, chinh sach kich thich kinh te ciia chinh phu cac nude chau Au giam dan hoac rut bd va that nghiep leo cao ky liic,
Trong nam EU da chu trgng vao cac van de doi ndi va eac ke hoach cu the ve kinh te-tai chinh, Cugc khung hoang ng edng cd nguy ca lan rgng, ddng Euro lien tuc mat gia, cac nhan td thue day tang trudng kinh te deu trd nen yeu ban Mdt nhiing diem noi bat cua chau Au nam la ng nan chong chat, cat giam ehi tieu va bat on xa hgi IMF danh gia, tien trinh phuc hdi cua Eurozone cd the de dang bi chech hudng vi nhung bat dn tir cugc khung hoang ng dang CO xu hudng lan rgng Ng cdng qua cao
PGS TS Nguyen Van Lieh Hoc vien Ngoai giao
khien cac chinh phu Tay Ban Nha, Anh, Ireland, Bd Dao Nha, Phap,, dua dua cac bien phap eat giam chi tieu khien lao ddng, sinh vien hge sinh xudng dudng, Tai Anh, dai BBC va ca Hoang gia eiing phai eat giam ngan sach Ng edng eua chau Au la 87,8% GDP nam 2011 va 83,3% GDP nam 2012 Ddi vdi EU, chi sd vao khoang 79,6% GDP Tham hut ngan sach cua EU se len den 1,2% GDP, Alien ed the len tdi 32% GDP Chinh phu cae nude dang eat giam ehi tieu va tang thue, de giam tham hut ngan sach, nhung da lam day len nhiing lo ngai ve tinh trang "that lung bude bung" se lam eham tang trudng va khien viec tra ng trd nen khd khan hon ECB, EU va 16 vien Eurozone dang vat Idn de chdng lai mdt cugc khung hoang "nui" ng qudc gia qua Idn d mdt sd nude khu vuc gay Hg dang nd lire tai cam ket vdi eac nha dau tu trai phieu rang eac nude vien se khdng bi vd ng va giii lai suat cac khoan ng khdng tang qua cao den mire hg khdng cdn du kha nang vay tiep
(2)44 NGHIEN CCfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°01 (124)
thanh vien EU edn dimg trudc nhiing khd khan ve sir ddng thuan mdt loat van de, dd ed viec khdng thdng qua dugc ngan sach cho nam 2011
Tinh binh tren lam cho tang trudng eua cac qudc gia tien tien thuge EU, nhd vao eac ehinh sach khat khe ve ng ehinh phu tir dau nam 2010, duge du bao se tang l,7%o nam 2010, EU dat 1.8% Tuy nhien, day van la mire tang khiem tdn so vdi cac nen kinh te phat trien d khu vuc khae eung nhu nhirng lan phuc hdi trudc day Ve lam phat: Nam 2010 du bao tir EU la l,5%o din 1,7% Nam 2011, chau Au van kiem soat dugc tinh hinh: EU se la 2% Eurozone la 1,5%> That nghiep nam 2010 la 10.1% Vl dai ban, kinh tl Eurozone se tiep tuc phuc hdi dii vdi tdc eham
Trong nira dau nam 2010, thuang mai giira EU vdi cae nude hau het deu tang so vdi eung ky nam trudc, ngoai trir vdi My giam 3%o, Hang boa tir Nga chiem phan Idn kim ngaeh nhap khau, xuat khau EU ehu yeu sang Brazil Tuy nhien, nira nam sau, tinh hinh ed sir thay ddi, Tham hut thuong mai khu vuc EU thang 7/2010 tang tir 0,5 ty USD len 5,7 ty USD so vdi eung ky nhu eau nang lugng tang, do: Phap cd mire tham hut thuang mai Idn nhat la 30 ty Euro, nhung Dire cd thang du cao nhat: hon 74.3 ty Euro
Mac du dat dugc mdt sd ket qua, nhung nhin chung chau Au van cdn kha nhieu khd khan: Phai ddi mat \'di cugc khung hoang tai
chinh qudc te toi te nhat ke tir nam 1930 Eurozone d mdt khia eanh nao dd da qua hdi nhap de sir lan tda xuyen bien gidi khdng dan tdi nhirng Idn xdn eac nen kinh te, nhung d khia canh khae viee hdi nhap lai chua du de tao kha nang de xir ly cugc khung hoang Euro hien la ddng tien quan trgng thu hai tren the gidi sau ddng USD song Eurozone lai dang thieu mdt ehinh sach tai ehinh thdng nhat
Mdt kbd khan khdng nhd nira la tinh trang that nghiep tai chau Au van chua dugc cai thien, mac du san lugng edng nghiep da tang lien tiep nhiing thang qua No luc eua ehinh phu cac nudc chau Au dudng nhu khdng dem lai hieu qua That nghiep da vugt 10,1%) thang 9/2010 va la mire cao nhat ke tir 1998 den nay, vdi khoang 15,9 trieu ngudi 16 nude thude Eurozone, Ty le cao nhat la Tay Ban Nha vdi 20,8%, nai thap nhat la Ha Lan vdi 4,4%) va toan EU thang 9/2010 la 9,6%,
(3)'Xinh te'ehuu du nam 2010 45
khu vuc Eurozone Cae nudc vien va EU dang dau dau va tranh luan vdi ve nhirng giai phap kha thi de giai quyet cac trudng hgp cd the xay va eiing de ngan ngira nhiing cugc khung boang tuong lai
Trong bdi canh tren, ehu nghTa bao hd da ed CO hdi trdi day' Cd rat nhieu cac rao can mdi dang nhanh chdng dugc dung len, can trd thuang mai the gidi va nguy co gay suy yeu su khdi phuc kinh te Tir nam 2008, cae ddi tac thuang mai quan trgng cua EU da thue hien ban 330 bien phap ban ehe thuong mai Tinh den thang 10/2010, Phap da chi 2,3 ty USD trg cap cho ndng dan Vien nghien cim Kinh te The gidi Kiel (Ifw) eua Diic td lo ngai ve ehu nghTa bao hd ed the anh hudng den sir phuc hdi cua nudc
Cho den nay, van cdn tiem an nhieu nguy CO d khu virc chau Au Trong nam 2011, EU se cd nhiing thay ddi Idn, se danh uu tien hang dau cho viee quan ly kinh te Theo du kien, tai Hgi nghi thugng dinh G20 vao nam 2011, EU se nam phan chu ddng viec thao luan bien phap quan ly kinh te the gidi va van de ty gia EU ciing se day manh cac thuong lugng qudc te ve thuang mai Dae biet, mdt hiep dinh tu thuong mai day tham vgng vdi Han Qudc du kien ed hieu luc tir 1/7/2011 se md eon dudng eho EU gia tang tham nhap vao cae nen kinh te
Xem "Bao ltd thuong mgi khiing hodng tai
chinh 200S" Tap chi Cong san, so 18 (210), nam
2010,
chau A Ngoai viee phat trien kinh te, EU eiing khang dinh san sang tiep tuc thao luan ve van de bao ve mdi trudng Hai nam 2011 va 2012 cd the coi la thdi gian thir thach gay go nhat eho sd phan eua ddng Euro ndi rieng va tuong lai ciia EU ndi chung, vi hai dau tau kinh te va chinh tri la Phap va Diic budc vao cae nam chuan bi tranh eir cac chuc vu quan trgng nhat la Tdng thdng va bau cir Qudc hdi Luc cbinb la thdi diem de cac nudc vien cua EU can phai dieu cbinb, sira cbiia eac nhugc diem, khuyet tat cua ddng Euro va co cau cua EU Cac nha quan ly va chuyen vien EU deu y tbiic dugc rang, hg nhu mdt nhdm cac bae sT cd nhiem vu chira tri mdt sd benh nhan, nhung ddng thdi khdng dugc phep lam cac benh lan sang nhung ngudi lanh Ndi mdt each khae, eac vien cua EU, dae biet la cac nude khu vuc ddng Euro dang phai tien hanh song song hai nhiem vu ehinh: Phai tinh tao, viing vang va rgng lugng giup mdt sd nudc vien dang gap khd khan ve tai ehinh de ehinh quyen cac nudc tao dung lai niem tin vdi dan chung va nhd the, kinh te dan dan khdi phuc va qua dd ddng Euro eiing dugc tin cay va xa hdi duge dn dinh Ddng thdi, EU ciing phai tim dugc nhirng md thiic mdi viec td chiic, each quyet dinh nham ngan ngira hiru hieu nhiing trudng hgp tai dien
(4)46
NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°01 (124! ^11
dang phuc hdi, song yeu dt, dd cin phai ap dung cae bien phap eiing ran de giai quylt tinh trang mat can bang kinh te, eiing nhu can sdm bat tay vao viee giam bdt eac khoan ng khdng Id Cae vien EU can tuan thu cae nguyen tac tai chinh chat ehe, ddng thdi sin sang tim kiem eac giai phap ddi phd vdi nguy CO khung hoang ng tuong lai
Ben eanh nhiing tin hieu tieh cue tren Cling cd y kien cho rang, ed nhieu dau hieu cho thay Eurozone dang tren bd virc sup dd, van de chi la thdi gian Mae dii dang cd nhii'ng nghi ngd ve su tdn tai eua Eurozone, song cd the khang dinh khdi se khdng sup dd, bdi neu vay se dem lai nhd'ng hau qua khdn ludng ve mat kinh te, khien tinh trang that nghiep trd nen tram trgng hon va gay nhieu khd khan ban eho nganh ngan hang Chu tich ECB eho biet, ddng Euro van
"ddng tin cay 12 ndm qua cimg nhu trong nhicng ndm tdi" Hien van cdn tiem an
nhieu nguy eo d khu vuc chau Au, vay can cd cae chinh sach phu hgp That chat tai kbda la can thiet, song can phai di ddi vdi viec giam thieu tac ddng xau tdi tang trudng va ty le that nghiep Chinh sach tiln te cin can bang giiia yeu eau binh thudng hda eac chinh sach va yeu cau dn dinh thi trudng trai phieu chinh phu ciing nhu tinh khoan cua ngan hang
Mac dii edn nhieu khd khan, nhung vdi nhiing nd lire tren, EU se cd du sue manh de ddi phd vdi nhung thach thue ed the nhin thay hoac chua ludng trudc dugc nam
2011 Du bao tang trudng cua Eurozone se la 1,3% vao nam 2011, trudc nhich len 1,8%) nhirng nam tiep theo
Trong nam 2010, mdt so nin kinh te chii yeu cd nhiing net ndi bat nhu sau:
Ddi vai Anh, tiln trinh hdi phuc kinh tl
ed nhii'ng tin hieu lac quan vdi sd don dat hang xuat khau cua ITnh vuc ehe tao tang manh nhat 15 nam qua; San lugng che tao tang manh nhat ban nua nam 2010 Tuy nhien, ty le that nghiep tai Anh van kha cao, den thang 10/2010 da len tdi 7,9%, gay lo ngai cho su phuc hdi cua nen kinh te, nhat la theo ke hoach nam tdi se cd them 330.000 viec lam ITnh vuc cdng bi cat giam Theo du bao, that nghiep tai Anh se tiep tue tang nam 2011, cd the dat hoac vugt mire 8,0% quy 1/2011 Gan nira trieu ngudi khu vuc nha nude se bi mat viec lam vdng nam tdi Trong do, lam phat se van d miie tren 3%) ca nam 2011 Tinh hinh tren dan den su bi quan ve kinh te nam 2011 Mdt khao sat cho thay 2/3 ngudi dan Anh tin rang nen kinh te eua hg se rat "dm yeu" nam 2011, cae bien phap that lung bude bung de giam than hut ngan sach bat dau anh hudng den tang trudng GDP; 1/5 khae eho biet hg sin sang xudng dudng bieu tinh, phan doi chuong trinh cit giam chi tieu cua Chinh phu Dir kiln, tang trudng nam 2011 cua Anh la
1,9%; Nam 2012 la 2,1%
Kinh te Dice da hdi phuc manh me, da
(5)ICJnh te'ehdu cAu ituin 2010
ã S ô f l « % a ill* a *^ ijA-i,; i_i*"HSJ
47
ve trien vgng kinh tl Due kha lac quan vdi mire tang tnrdng nbanh Ngoai xuat khau, nhu cau ndi dja tang cao la ddng lire cho sir tang trudng cua nen kinh te GDP cua Dire cd the dat 3,6% nam 2010 va 2,2% nam 2011, vdi tham hut ngan sach va ty le that nghiep deu giam Day la mire tang trudng cao nhat cua Due ke tir klii nudc hgp nhat vao nam 1990 Nam 2012, ty le that nghiep cd the giam tir 7,5%o hien xudng 6,9%) Ty le lam phat se diing d mire 1,7%) nam 2011 va giam xudng l,6%o nam 2012
Mac dii cd nhieu tin hieu tich cue, song trien vgng kinh te Diie van chua hoan toan kha quan Nguy co ehinh ddi vdi kinh te Diic bat ngudn tir sir bat dn cae thi trudng tai chinh d mdt sd nen kinh te tien tien Ifw cho biet: "Cho den nay, su hdi phuc mgnh
me eiia nen kinh te Dice vdn chua bu dap dugc hoan todn nhicng suy gidm thai ky suy thoai ndm 2009 Din kien phdi den giica ndm 2011 mai dgt dugc dinh cao trudc suy thoai, nhung bdt ky mdt rdi ren tdi chinh ndo ciing cd the phd huy qud trinh nay"
Trong nam 2010, GDP ciia Phdp tang trudng vira phai, dat 1,6% Theo Vien Thdng ke va Nghien cun Kinh te qudc gia Phap (fNSEE), nam 2011 cd nhirng ylu td thuan lgi cho sir phuc bdi ciia nude nay, dae biet edng nghiep va dich vu Chinh phii Phap va gidi ngan hang tiep tuc tao cac dieu kien uu dai ve tai cbinb cho boat ddng dau tu vay dau tu cua cae doanh nghiep se
tang nhe eho den giira nam 2011 Sd viec lam mdi ciing tang d muc vira phai, giup ty le that nghiep den giira nam 2011 giam nhe, xudng cdn khoang 9,1%) Tdc tang trudng kinh te Phap hien la chua du manh de tao dieu kien eho cae cdng ty tang cudng tuyen dung lao ddng LTnh vuc tieu dung, ddng lire ehinh giup kinh te Phap tang trudng, tiep tuc ddng vai trd quan trgng nam tdi Do siic ep lam phat giam, siie mua cua cae hd gia dinh Phap du kien se tang nhe Cae khoan luong thudng cudi nam 2010 cd tac dung tao da, lam tang siic mua cua cac hd gia dinh Phap dat muc tieu tang trudng
2% nam 2011, cao hon nhieu du doan
cua nhieu nha kinh te va td chiic qudc te Tuy nhien, cdn lo ngai ve nhiing bat dn cua nen kinh te Phap va chau Au, nen eac hd gia dinh tiep tuc tri khoan tiet kiem Idn cac quy tiet kiem hay ngan hang Du bao ty le ng cdng cua Phap se vao khoang 82,9% GDP -^-.- - - ; -
(6)48 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°01 (124 11
doan trudc khung hoang Italia ein tilp tuc cat giam ng cdng va tien hanh cai each ca cau de dat cae mue tieu tren
•fi JijfU yl '/J
Kinh te Phdn Lan bat dau trd nen "sang
sua" ban ke tir nira dau nam Hoat ddng xuat khau, dau tu tu nhan va tieu thu hang hda tang dang ke da danh dau sir phuc hdi manh me eua Phan Lan Du bao GDP nam 2010 cua Phin Lan se dat 3,2% Ty le thit nghiep tai day ciing giam manh hon du kien, udc tinh la 8,4%) nam 2010 Tdng kim ngaeh xuat khau se tang 5,1% so vdi nam 2009 Tdng dau tu tu nhan va lugng tieu dung tai qudc gia cung tang lan lugt 3,5%) va 2,8%) so vdi nam 2009 Tuy nhien, du bao tang trudng eua Phan Lan nam 2011 ehi dat 2,9%), dong thdi tham hut ngan sach d miic 6%o GDP nam 2010, van se tilp dien mdt vai nam tdi ng cdng cua nudc giai doan 2008-2012 cd thi se len tdi 30,4 ty USD Ben canh dd, ty le lam phat tai Phan Lan ciing ed xu hudng tang len miic 2,4%) vao nam 2011 Ty le thit nghiep la 7,8% nam 2011 va 7,4% nam 2012
Thuy Dien du bao tang trudng kinh tl
trong nam la 4,3%, nin kinh tl da chuyen bien nhanh nam vira qua Su thay ddi ciia Thuy Diln ed thi la su thay doi Idn nhit sd 27 qudc gia cua EU Xuit khiu eiia nudc dang phuc hdi nhanh Tham hut ngan sach la 2,1%, song day van la muc thip nhit 27 vien EU Tuy nhien, tang trudng nam tdi cd thi thip ban, chi dat 3,8%o, vi trien vgng toan cau van chua
chae chan Mac du vay, day van la mdt du bao lac quan cho nam tdi
Dan Mgch eho bilt GDP cua nude
da tang trudng lien tuc tir quy 11/2009 Dan Mach da tri duge mdt ngan sach can bang nhilu nam qua Nam 2010, GDP eua Dan Mach se dat 2%, ty le that nghiep la 5,75%, tham but ngan sach la 5,5%o GDP Du bao, GDP cua Dan Mach dat 1,7% nam 2011 va 1,5%) nam 2012; Ty le that nghiep du doan d muc 6%o nam 2011
Kinh te Ireland suy giam 0,3%o
nam 2010, khien chinh phu nudc phai nhan ciiu trg khan cap luc ngudi dan cang bat man Ty le that nghiep len miic 13,6%) Thi trudng bat ddng san suy giam khien kinh te Ireland, dae biet la he thdng ngan hang, roi vao khung hoang tram trgng Ireland dat ke boach ban chi ehi tieu va tang thue them ty Euro nam 2011
Ddi vai Estonia, nam 2010 danh dau
viee nudc ehinh thue la vien thii 17 cua Eurozone bdi canh nbilu nudc vien ciia Khdi dang lao dao vi ng edng va tham hut ngan sach Ngay 13/7/2010, EU da nhat tri chap thuan Estonia trd thanh vien Eurozone tir 1/1/2011 Thu tudng Estonia nhin manh: "Ddy Id mdt buoc
nhd vai Eurozone nhung la mot buac lan ddi vai Estonia" Cimg vdi tiln bg tren, Estonia
(7)JCiith te'eJtdu cJtu ittiin 2010 49
img tieu chuan de gia nhap Eurzone (tham hut ngan sach dudi 3% GDP) Trong nam 2010, lam phat tai Estonia chi vao khoang 1,1%
Tir dau nam 2010, kinh te Bungari ed diu hieu hoi phuc, nhung tac ddng cua khung hoang ng edng tai nudc lang gieng Hy Lap, du kien GDP ca nam dat khoang 0.3 %, FDl giam cdn ban ty Euro, lam phat tang 3-3,5%, thit nghiep tu 10-10,2% Bungari dang thue hien chinh sach that lung budc bung, giam bien che 15%) cac bg, nganh va 15% kinh phi boat ddng cua cae chinh dang Du kien nam 2011, GDP ciia nudc se tang 2-2,5%,
Theo udc tinh cua IMF, kinh le Latvia dang phuc hdi sau suy giam tdi 25% Sir phuc hoi ve cdng nghiep va xuat khau eua Latvia da giup chain dut chudi suy giam kinh te dai nhat EU Them vao dd, eac gdi cat giam chi tieu ngan sach, nham tuan thu cac yeu cau eua gdi ciru trg qudc te tri gia 10,4 ti USD da giiip nen kinh te cai thien duge sire canh tranh Xu hudng di len se van tiep tuc Cac nha phan tich cung bay td thai lac quan nhin vao trien vgng di len cua nude Tuy vay theo ude tinh, GDP cua Latvia eung chi dat l%o nam 2010
Ben eanh mdt sd nen kinh te ed su tien bd nhu tren, eung cdn nhieu nude dang gap khdng it kbd khan Nam 2010 la giai doan khd khan ddi vdi Tdy Ban Nha: tham hut ngan sach len tdi 9,3%) GDP Van de lo ngai
la nlu Tay Ban Nha, hien la nen kinh te Idn thu tu Eurozone, phai xin trg giup thi khoan eiiu trg danh eho hg se Idn chua tung thay Quy md kinh te Tay Ban Nha Idn gap ddi eac nen kinh te Hy Lap, Alien va Bd Dao Nha edng lai Thang 5/2010 Tay Ban Nha da dua cac bien phap khae khd nham tham hut ngan sach tir muc 11,1%) GDP nam 2009 - muc cao thir ba Eurozone, sau Hy Lap va Alien - xudng mire
3% GDP theo quy dinh eua EU vao nam
2013 Tay Ban Nha da len ke boach cai each he thdng luong huu va ban cd phan Cdng ty Xd sd qudc doanh, ciing nhu cac san bay chu ehdt nham tranh nhung sire ep ng cdng cd the khien nen kinh te rai vao mdt cugc khung hoang ng nhu Hy Lap Chi tieu ngan sach cua Tay Ban Nha nam tdi se giam 7,9% xudng 170 ty USD, tham hut ngan sach la 6,0%o Ve viec lam, chua day nam, tu mdt nudc dan dau chau Au tao viec lam, Tay Ban Nha trd nude ed ty le that nghiep cao Eurozone, d mue gan 20%), vdi trieu ngudi mat viee lam Khoan hd trg dae biet 426 Euro cho nhiing ngudi that nghien dai ban se bi cit tu thang 1/2011
(8)50 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°01 (124)
tham hilt Ke hoach tren bao gdm 124 boat ddng eho 10 bd 26 ITnh vuc lien quan
tdi edng nghiep ^ Cugc khung hoang ng d Hy Lgp la mdt
trong nhirng su kien Idn sau khung hoang tai chinh 2008, da de lai nhung bai hge rat sau sac cho nhieu nen kinh te tren the gidi Cae sd lieu cho thay ng ebinb phu ciia Hy Lap da len den 300 ti USD, tham hut ngan sach la
12,7%) GDP du kien tang tnrdng am 4% nam 2010 Hy Lap da khdng the tu giai quyet duge tinh hinh tren, ma phai can den sir ho trg tir ben ngoai EC, ECB va IMF da ciru trg Hy Lap, Nhd nhirng ed gang cua ban than, edng vdi trg giiip tieh eirc tir ben ngoai, den nay, Hy Lap da cdng viec that chat chi tieu de giam tham hut ngan sach Cudi thang 7/2010, cac nha kiem toan eua EU va IMF da danh tuan lam viec va kiem tra viec thue hien eac bien phap ban che ehi tieu eua Hy Lap Theo hg, viec cat giam ehi tieu eua Hy Lap dang di dung hudng, du tien bd de hg ed the nhan duge ty Euro Nam 2010 Hy Lap se tang trudng -3%
Cung vdi hai nude tren, GDP cua Bd
Dao Nha nam 2010 dat -Wo va se roi
vao suy thoai, tac ddng cua chuang trinh that lung budc bung cua Chinh phu de giam bdt ng •
Khu v:re eac qudc gia mdi ndi EU se tang truDfng 3.8%) Tuy nhien cac nudc se phu thude nhieu vao cac ddng thuong
mai, eac ddng vdn ciing nbu tang tru ig tin dung d cac nudc phat trien d chau Au,
Kinh ti Nga vugt qua nhieu thach tbiic
trong nam 2010, Thu tudng V.Putin da danh gia lac quan vl kinh te Nga vdi GDP dat 3,8%; du trir ngoai hdi la 461 ty U S D I Day la mire tang trudng kha, mac du edn kem xa so vdi mire tang GDP cua Trung Qudc nhung van vugt cac nude chau Au va My, Tham hut ngan sach nam 2010 vao khoang 3,5-3,8%o GDP, thap hon mue dy kien ban dau Gan 1,2 trieu viee lam mdi da duge tao Khoang 10%) dan sd da dugc cai thien dieu kien nha d, vdi khoang 43 trieu m2 nha d dugc xay dung Thu nhap thue te cua ngudi dan da tang hon 2%o, tien luong thue te da tang A% va trg cap him tri ciing tang 44,9%) Viec gia nhap WTO cua Nga dang di tdi giai doan cudi eiing Nhin chung, kinh te Nga da khdi phuc sau khung hoang Nam 2011, Nga se tiep tue phuc bdi va se dat muc tang trudc khung hoang vao giiia nam 2012 Du bao GDP cua Nga nam 2011 va 2012 se la 4,5% va 3,5% Tuy nhien, tac ddng eua vu ban ban lieh sir ban mgt nira the ky qua, cung vdi gia dau khdng tang da lam eho Nga gap nhieu khd khan Trong bdi canh cae ngudn thu bi cit giam, chic chan lam tram trgng them tinh trang tham but ngan sach it nhat la den nam 2012
GDP ciia Ucraina se tang 3,1%
nam 2011
I
(9)JCinIt te'eJtdu cAu nam 2010 51
Ddng Au bi tac ddng kha nang bdi cugc khung hoang tai cbinb toan cau va se phai mat nhieu thdi gian mdi cd the bdi phuc Tuy nhien, xuat khau va cdng nghiep cua khu vuc bit diu tang trudng Mac du vin tdn tai nhilu thach thirc, nhung kinh te cua khu vuc se tang nam tdi
Trong kinh te thue dang gap khd khan thi nin "kinh te ngam"'' tai chau Au lai dang phat trien manh: Ty le trung binh cua cac nin kinh te "trong bdng tdi" so vdi GDP da tang tir 13,3% nam 2008 len 14%) vao nam 2010 10 nude ed ty trgng cao nhat la: Hy Lap 25,2%; Italia 22,2%; Tay Ban Nha 19,8%; Bo Dao Nha 19,7%; Bi 17,9%; Thuy Diln 15.6%; Na Uy 15,4%); Dire 14,7%; Dan Mach 14,4%; Phin Lan 14,3%) Cac nudc se phai cd gang rat nhieu de dua cac boat ddng ngam cdng khai, vua dam bao tinh hgp phap cua nd, vira khai tbac duge sire manh cua cac lire lugng nay, nham thue day kinh te tang tnrdng nhanh va ben vii'ng hon
Tai lieu tham khao
1 IMF du bdo tdng truang ndm 2010; Bloomberg, 1/10/2009
2 Kinh te the giai se phuc hdi mgnh
trong ndm 2010, 26/11/2009
http://vyww.kinhtenongthon.eom.vn/Storv/qu octe/2009/11/21009.html
3 G-20 cdn phdi cdi td vi hogt ddng
thieu tinh phdp ly Tin Tham khao dae biet,
09/6/2010
4 Huang tai Khu vice mau dich lu
Chdu A - Thdi Binh Duang,
http://dvt.vn/20101115071814649p85e78/hu
ong-toi-khu-vuc-mau-dich-tu-do-ehau-athai-binh-duong.htm 15/11/2010 „;!,.„, 5 Eurozone ddi mat "khiing hodng sdng
cd«", BBC, 16 thang 11, 2010
6 Kinh te EU vugt qua mice day ciia
khiing hodng, c^u i^j4</ , „ ; / ^r\ „,:,i^ ori>
http://www.bsc.com.vn/News/2010/10/28/ll
8340.aspx 28/10/2010 '^^
1 Global Economic Prospects,
http://web.woridbank.org/WBSITE/EXTER NAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/EX TGBLPROSPECTSAPRIL/0 menuPK:6591 78~pagePK:64218926~piPK:64218953~theS itePK:659149.00.html
8 The Global Competitiveness Report
2010-2011
http://www.weforum.Org/en/initiatives/gep/G lobal%)20Competitiveness%)20Report/index htm
9 World Economy to Grow by More than 3.0% in 2010, http://www.property-investing, ors/world-economy html
•' Dugc hifiu la cac hoat dong kinh te vi ph^m cac quy dinh cua Chinh phu hoac co quan thuS, nhSm cat giam chi phi
'Ai l o f J (klii'i f ' W i q 'jjuj'il ,qi}iiJ i v
http://vyww.kinhtenongthon.eom.vn/Storv/qu http://dvt.vn/20101115071814649p85e78/hu http://www.bsc.com.vn/News/2010/10/28/ll http://web.woridbank.org/WBSITE/EXTER http://www.weforum.Org/en/initiatives/gep/G