Giai phap thue day dieh chuyen ed eau kinh te' la tie'p tuc huy ddng cac ngudn life ket hdp gida nha nude va tU nhan, trong va ngoai nude trong dau tU phat trien ed sd ha tang ky t[r]
(1)NGHIEN cu'u-TRAO DOI II
CAC NHAN TO TAG DQNG DEN TANG TRlTdNG KINH TE VIET NAM
GS., TS Nguyin Thi Canh V » t * ThS Nguyin A n h Phong
J^T'^ -*" ThS Tran Hung Sdn Y DH Kinh te - Luat, DH Quoe gia TP HCM ^^F^rong gi&i hgn bdi viet ndy chung toi se trinh bdy tdng quan ve phdt trien ' m 'kinh te Viet Nam qua han 20 ndm thifc hien chinh sdch ddi mdi kinh te, sau
m phdn tich cdc nhdn td tdc dong den tdng trUdng kinh te PhUang phap ^ L phdn tich gom phdn tich dinh tinh qua mo td sd lieu thdng he vd phdn tich dinh lugng qua mo hinh kinh te lUgng Sd lieu sU dung phdn tich chu yeu la so lieu thU cap cua Tdng cue Thdng ke Viet Nam, Ngdn hdng The gidi, Quy Tien te Qudc te To chUc Phdt trien Lien Hiep Qudc vd Td chUc ThUang mgi Qudc te
Tong quan ve k i n h te' V i e t Nam qua mpt so chi so p h a t trien giai d o a n 1990-2009 va dii k i e n n a m 2010
Hdn 23 nam thUe hien chinh sach ddi mdi va gan 20 nam phat trien (1990-2009) tdc tang trUdng kinh te cda Viet Nam lien tuc gid mde eao, binh quan giai doan 1990-2009 la 7,447Jnam, Ude tinh nam 2010 tdc tang GDP dat 6,787^ Tdc tang trudng kinh te cao, tde tang dan sd dUdc khdng che, nen GDP binh quan dau ngUdi eda Viet Nam mdi nam mdt tang Neu nam 1990, GDP binh quan dau ngudi eua Viet Nam ehi khoang tren 100 USD, thi de'n n a m 2008 dat khoang 1.047 USD va nam 2009 dd td'e tang GDP giam, song dieu ehinh sd lieu dieu tra dan so nam 2009 nen GDP binh quan dau ngudi van tang va dat 1.109 USD du kie'n nam 2010, GDP binh quan dau ngUdi la 1.160 USD (Bieu dd 1) Vdi mde thu nhap nay, Viet Nam lan dau tien td nam 2008 thoat khdi nhdm nude ed thu nhap thap nhat sang nhdm nUdc cd thu nhap trung binh, danh dau mde phat trien cua nen kinh te Viet Nam
(^hiie JHifmi 'ittam /Hdi
Cfjuan '^an JHuo
Do tdc tang trUdng edng nghiep cao hdn mde tang binh quan cda nen kinh te nen cd cau kinh te Viet Nam dang dich chuyen theo hudng tang ty trgng khu vUc cdng nghiep - xay dUng (khu vUc II), giam ty trgng khu vUc ndng nghiep (khu vLfc I), ty trgng khu vUe dieh vu (khu vUc III) tUdng ddi dn dinh qua cac nam gan day Ket qua cho thay, nen kinh te Viet Nam dang ehuyen theo hudng edng nghiep hda
Neu nhu trUde giai doan ddi mdi khu vUc I chiem tren 40% GDP, khu vUe II chiem tren 27% GDP, khu vuc III chie'm tren 32% GDP thi nhdng nam gan day khu vUe II da chie'm tren dUdi 40%, khu vUc III dn dinh tren , dd khu vUe I da giam xudng tren dudi 21% (Bieu dd 2)
Ve dich chuyen ed cau theo phan kinh te, nhd cd ehinh sach ddi mdi nen nen
Bieu 1: Toe dp tang triCdng GDP & GDP/ ngu'cJi tai Vi^t Nam giai doan 1985 - 2009
Nguon: Nien gidm thong ke coc ndm tit' 1985 den 2009 ca ket qua dieu tra ddn sd ndm 2009 Tdng cue Thong ki'
Bie'u 2: Cd cau GDP theo khu vijfc nganh kinh te giai doan 1985 - 2009
Nguon: Nien gidm thdng ke cac ndm ti/ 198o din 2009 Tong vuc Thdng ke
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(2)II NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI
^'^^S^^^^-kinh te Viet Nam dUde phat trien vdi da hinh thde sd hdu cd the phan theo nam khu vUc kinh te: kinh te nha nUde, kinh te tap the, kinh te ea the (hg gia dinh), kinh te tU nhan va kinh te ed vd'n dau tU nude ngoai Xu hudng phat trien cua kinh te V i e t N a m la ty t r g n g k i n h te n h a nude va k i n h te t a p t h e giam d a n ty t r g n g k i n h te tu n h a n , ca the va k i n h te cd vd'n dau tU nUde ngoai t a n g d a n TrUde n a m 1985 k i n h te n h a nUde va k i n h te t a p the chiem t r e n 53%, kinh te ca the chie'm t r e n 46%, k i n h te tU n h a n va kinh te
cd vd'n dau tU nude ngoai h a u nhu k h d n g cd Kinh te n h a nude giam td 40,18% n a m 1995 xud'ng cdn 35,13% n a m 2009; kinh te ca the va hdp tac xa giam td 46,05% n a m 1995, xud'ng cdn 35,52% n a m 2009; ty t r g n g k i n h te t u n h a n va k i n h te' ed vd'n d a u tU nUde n g o a i d a n g cd xu h u d n g t a n g d a n ve ty t r g n g , tU n h a n t r o n g nUde cd ty t r g n g td 7,44% n a m 1995 l e n ' 1 , % n a m 2009; k i n h te cd vd'n d a u tU nUde n g o a i t a n g td 6,30% n a m 1995 l e n 18,33% n a m 2009 (Bieu dd 3)
B i e u 3: Thay doi kinh te theo phan
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i k Nguon: Nien gidm thdng ke cdc nam tit 1985 den 2009, Tdng cue Thdng ke nganhang
|6^Xuan • T h a n g 01+02/2011
Nhu vay, qua t r i n h chuyen ddi n e n k i n h te theo chinh sach ddi mdi va hdi n h a p da m a n g lai ke't qua t a n g trUdng k i n h te cao, cd cau kinh te chuyen bien k h a m a n h theo khu vUe n g a n h va p h a n k i n h t e Hay ndi each k h a c , cai each kinh te da md cda eho cac t h a n h phan kinh te eung t o n t a i va phat t r i e n , k i n h te n h a nUdc giam d a n ty t r g n g t a o cd hgi cho cac t h a n h p h a n k i n h te khac p h a t t r i e n
Cac n h a n to tac dpng den tang tnfdng kinh te Vi$t Nam Cdc yeu to vdn, lao dgng, tdng ndng suat nhdn td vd yeu to vdng
(3)NGHIEN ClJfU-TRAO DOI II
ddi cd che ehinh sach, hoan thien mdi trUdng dau tu ) Nhd cd chinh sach ddi mdi va hgi nhap, nguon vd'n huy ddng cho phat trien kinh te kha da dang gom vdn nUdc va nguon vd'n td ben ngoai Do qua trinh cai each kinh te, cac chinh sach kinh te hop long dan nen da huy dgng dUde cac ngudn vd'n dan eho dau tU phat trien lam tang dang ke qui md nguon vdn nUdc Vdn nUdc gom hai nguon chinh la vdn nha nUde va vdn tu nhan (doanh nghiep, ngUdi dan) Thifc hien dUdng Idi ddi mdi kinh te cua Dai hgi VI Ban Chap hanh Trung Udng Dang Cgng san Viet Nam nam 1986, nhieu ehinh saeh kinh te dUde thay ddi Viec hinh eae van ban phap ly da the che hda dudng Id'i ddi mdi eua Dang Luat Dau tU tai Viet Nam dUde ban hanh vad nam 1987 la mgt nhdng dao luat khdi dau cho thdi ky ddi mdi, tao mdi trudng phap ly thu hut vdn dau tu nUdc ngoai vao Viet Nam Ket qua thu hut vdn dau tU true tie'p nUdc ngoai (FDI) t d thUe thi Luat Dau tU dUge phan anh qua Bieu dd va dudi day Tinh den cud'i nam 2009, ca nude ed 12.206 du an vd'n FDI dUdc cap phep dau tU vdi tdng vd'n dang ky khoang 192,8 ty USD (ke ea vdn tang them), vdn thUe hien dat 67,4 ty USD Nhin ehung, sd lUdng dU an dau tU, vd'n dang ky va vdn thUc hien tang dan qua cac nam (trd mdt sd nam tac ddng cua khung hoang tai chinh chau Chau A), dac biet tang manh nam 2007 va 2008 la thdi gian sau Viet Nam da trd thanh vien chinh thde cua td ehde ThUdng mai The gidi va giam manh d nam 2009 tae dgng eua khung hoang tai chinh kinh te toan cau Du kien nam 2010, vd'n FDI dat tren 10 ty USD, tang 10% so vdi nam
0/iiU' JtUiig ^Hilm Miii
Bieu 4: So dii an FDI vao Viet Nam giai doan 1988 - 2009
• • • f T i l l l H i l l
Ngudn: Nien gidm thdng ke cdc ndm tii 1988 den 2009, Tdng cue Thdng ke
Bieu 5: Cd cau von theo sd hij'u giai doan 1990 - 2009
P P l I I i M ^ r I Ll
Ngudn: Nien gidm thdng ke cdc ndm tii 1990 den 2009, Tdng cue Thdng ke 2009, nhien vdn dang ky lai
giam Tinh den thang 11/2010, vd'n FDI dang ky dat khoang 13 ty USD bang 60% vd'n FDI dang ky eung ky nam 2009
Nhd ehinh sach khuyen khich dau tu nUdc va Luat Dau tu, vdn dau tU xa hdi khdng ngdng tang hdn hai thap nien qua Cd eau vdn theo phan kinh te the hien ngudn vdn tu nhan va vd'n FDI ddng gdp td 50% den tren 65% tong nguon vd'n dau tU xa hdi (Bieu 5) Xu hudng cho thay ngudn vd'n tu nhan nUde va vdn FDI nhdng nam gan day (trd nam 2009) tang ca ve qui md lan ty trgng Theo khu vUc nganh kinh te, vdn dau tU ehu ye'u tap trung
vao khu vifc III chiem tren 50%, khu vUe II chiem tren 42-43%, khu vUe I cd ty le vdn dau tU kha khiem ton va cd xu hUdng giam dan cac nam gan day (tren 6-7%)
Cd eau lao ddng dang dieh ehuyen dan td khu vUe I sang khu VLfc II va khu vUc III, dd khu vUc III thu hut tren mdt phan tu life lUdng lao ddng; xu hudng ehuyen dieh cd cau lao ddng rd ret theo khu vUc nganh (Bieu dd 6)
• Tdng nang sua't nhan to: ddng gdp cho sU phat trien kinh te Viet Nam hai thap nien qua la tac dgng chu yeu eua ehinh saeh md cda, hdi
Bieu 6: Chuyen dich ccT cau lao dpng theo khu vUc nganh kinh te giai doan 1990 - 2008
Ngudn: Nien gidm thdng ke cdc ndm til 1990 den 2008, Tdng cue Thdng ke vd Bdo cao lao dong, viec ldm 2008, Bp Lao dgng vd Thuang binh Xd hoi
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(4)II NGHIEN cufu-TRAO DOI
Model
1 Constant LogK LogL
L'nslandardi/cd Coet^icients
B L566
,546 23.5
.1)94 015 1)19
Standardized Coet^ieienls
Beta
.870 304
' B 16.585 35 " 12.330
Significanee
Std EiTor
.000 000 000
Ngudn: Nien gidm thdng ki; cdc ndm tii 1990 den 2009, Tdng cue Thdng ke vd Bien phu thupc LogGDP
GDP=1.566 K°«' Lo-5t (3)
Td md hinh nhan td ta cd:
tdng nang suat
nhap t h d n g qua h a i ye'u to c h i n h Bang 1: Ket qua he so hoi qui cua mo hinh
la tang ngudn vdn cho dau tU phat trien va tang xua't khau, tang thu nhap va ngoai te De danh gia nguon gde sU tang trUdng, cac nha kinh te thUdng dung ham tdng nang suat nhan to Theo dd: GDP, = A/(K,, L,), dd A la tien bg ve hieu qua kinh te nhU cdng nghe, phUdng phap quan ly, dieu hanh (dUde ggi chung la tdng nang sua't cac nhan to san xuat); ba nguon gd'c cua tang trudng tdng san pham la sU gia tang tong nang sua't cac nhan to san xua't (A), vdn (K) va lao ddng (L) theo thdi gian t Ddng gdp cua tdng ye'u to dUde xae dinh theo cdng thde:
GGDP = G, + PKG^ + P,G,,
dd G^ la tde tang trudng tdng nang sua't cac nhan td san xua't; Gj^ la td'e tang trudng cua vd'n va Gj^ la tdc tang trudng eua lao dgng; (3^ la ty trgng cua thang du san xua't GDP va Pj^ la ty trgng cua thu lao lao dgng GDP; p^ va P^^ chinh la sd md eua ham san suat Cobb-Douglas
GoDP = G, + PKGK + PLG,, (4)
Trong dd, G^^p la tdc tang GDP, G^ la td'e tang tdng nang suat n h a n td' tang GDP, G^ la tdc tang vd'n va
G^ la tdc tang lao ddng Ta
biet tdc tang trUdng GDP binh quan cho giai doan 1990-2007 la G,,„p =7,56%/nam; tdc do tang vd'n , ^f^
G K = - ma AK=sY-dK
d la ty le khau hao
Td ket qua so lieu thdng ke ve GDP, vdn (K), lao dgng (L) giai doan 1990-2009 cua Viet Nam cho toan bg nen kinh te va cho ba khu vUc (72 quan sat), ap dung md hinh kinh te lUdng Cobb-Douglas:
Y = AK'LP (1)
Trong dd Y=GDP
Lay Log hai ve md hinh (1), ta ed : LogY= LogA-n
Pj^LogK-i-p.LogL (a=p^, p= p j (2)
Chay md hinh (2) vdi so lieu thd'ng ke gdm 72 quan sat (tdng nen kinh te va ba khu vUe nganh) tren ehUo'ng trinh SPSS ta cd ke't qua Bang
Ke't qua md hinh cho tha'y, cac kie'm dinh thd'ng ke deu ed y nghia (p<0,005), va a=p^ =0,87; P= Pj = 0,304, tdc ta cd md hinh !' thUc nghiem:
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-Ham tdng tie't kiem: I=sY, s la ty le tie't kiem, tdc tdc tang vd'n se bdng tdc tang tie't kiem dau tU trd ty le khau bao Ty le tang dau tU binh quan eua Viet Nam giai doan 1990-2008 la 14,17%/nam; ty'le khau hao binh quan toan nen kinh te khoang 8%/nam (trung binh trgng so eua nhdm may mde thie't bi td 10%'-30%, nhdm nha xUdng td 2%-5%), nhu vay G^=14,17%-8%= 6,17%, tdc tang lao ddng G^^ tinh binh quan cho giai doan 1990 - 2008 la 2,63%/nam Thay sd lieu tinh toan vao ham (3) ta ed: 7,56%=G^-(-6,17%x0,87-i-0,30x2,63% 7,56%=G^-i- 5,37%-i-0,8% hay G^=7,56%-(5,37%H-0,8%)=1,39% De tang 1% GDP, ddng gdp cua ye'u td vdn la 71,03% (5,37/7,56), ddng gdp eua ye'u td lao ddng la 10,58% (0,8/7,56) va ddng gdp eda tdng nang sua't n h a n td
nganhang
(gdm cd che chinh sach, trinh quan ly, trinh cdng nghe) la 18,39% (1,39/7,56) Ke't qua cho tha'y, ddng gdp vao tang trUdng eua kinh te' Viet Nam hdn 20 nam qua chd yeu la ye'u to vd'n, sau la thay ddi cd ehe chinh sach, cdng nghe lam tang tdng nang suat n h a n to
• Ye'u td vung: ddng gdp cho tang trUdng kinh te Viet Nam edn the hien vai trd cua cac vdng kinh te trgng diem Td thap nien 1990, Viet Nam da hinh t h a n h ba vdng kinh te trgng diem: phia Bde gdm Ha Ndi - Hai Phdng - Quang Ninh, mien Trung gdm Da Ndng -Quang Nam - -Quang Ngai, phia Nam gom Tp Ho Chi Minh - Binh DUdng - Ddng Nai - Ba Ria Vdng Tau va mdi day hinh t h a n h them vung kinh te trgng diem dong bang Sdng Cdu Long Hdn 10 nam qua cac vung kinh te trgng diem ddng vai trd dau tau tang trUdng, dac biet vung kinh te' trgng diem phia Nam ludn cd td'e tang trudng GDP eao hdn gan 1,5 lan mde binh quan ea nUde, vi vay ty trgng GDP cua vung chie'm td 40% de'n 42%- GDP ea nude Tinh de'n vung kinh te trgng diem phia Nam cd t r e n 132 khu cdng nghiep, khu che xua't chie'm 57% so khu cdng nghiep, khu che xua't cua ca nUde; ty trgng gia tri san lUdng edng nghiep chie'm tren dudi 60% tong gia tri san lUdng edng nghiep ca nUdc Vung kinh te trgng diem phia Bde eung cd tdc tang trddng
(5)NGHIEN cufu-TRAO DOI II Bang 2: Tang t n i d n g GDP binh quan theo vung va dong gop vao GDP ca
nifdc giai doan 2006 - 2008
Dcta vi tinh: %
Viing
Tnjng du va tnicn nui phia Bae Dongjjang sLing Hong
Bae Ttoing Bt) Duyen hai mien Trung Tay Nguyen £)6ng Nam Bp LXtng bang song
Cuu Long
Toe d9
t i n g GDP
9.5 10.0
13.0
Tangtruwng khu vire I
5.4
5.3 6.2
Tangtruong
ktiu virc II
16.0 15,0 14.0 IX.O
Tang triniTig khu virc III
9.5
14.0 i5.0_ 14,5
Dong gop vao CDP
10.5 11.5
Nguon: Bien phu thuoc LogGDP cao cac nam gan day, hien GDP cua vung chiem tren 19% GDP ca nUde Vung kinh te trgng diem mien Trung cd ty trgng GDP cdn thap, tren 4% GDP ea nUdc, nhUng day la vung cd nhieu tiem nang, cd the manh h a tang du lich nhu Da Ndng, cd Khu Cdng nghiep Dung Quat, Khu Kinh te md Chu Lai Tren
tdng the, ba vung kinh te' trgng diem dang ddng vai trd ehd lUe cho phat trien kinh te Viet Nam, GDP cua ba vung hien chie'm tren 64%-65% GDP ca nude, thu bdt tren 80% du an dau tU nUdc ngoai, khoang 70%' ve gia tri san lUdng cdng nghiep, 70% ve kim ngach xuat khau va khoang 73% ve thu ngan sach nha nUdc va la
B i e u 7: GDP, T o n g k i m n g a c h x u a t n h a p k h a u , FDI t h i i c h i e n giai doan 1990 - 2009
Nguon: Nien gidm thdng ke cdc ndm 1990 den 2009, Tdng cue Thdng ke
Bieu 8: Dp md n e n kinh te giai d o a n 1990 - 2009
Ngudn: Nien gidm thdng ki' cdc ndm tif 1990 den 2009, Tdng cue Thong ke
B i e u 9: Chi so' p h a t t r i e n x u a t n h a p k h a u v a GDP g i a i d o a n 1991 - 2009
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Ngudn: Nien gidm thdng ke cdc nam tit 1991 den 2009, Tdng cue Thdng ke
f-'hiif MUng fHunt M&i
(f'lithi "7(111 Jffi'n)
nhdng vdng ed dich chuyen ed eau kinh te' manh theo hudng phat trien vdi ty trgng eao eae nganh khu vUc II va khu vUe III (Bang 2) '
C a c y e u t o t o n g c a u : X u a t - n h a p k h a u , t i c h liiy v a t i e u d u n g
Tren phUdng dien tdng cau, xuat khau da gdp phan quan trgng cho tang trUdng kinh te Viet Nam Kim ngach xuat khau cua Viet Nam khdng ngdng tang nhdng nam qua ca ve qui md lan tdc (Bieu dd 7) Theo Bieu dd 7, eung vdi sU gia tang ve giai ngan vdn FDI qua cae nam la tdc tang manh ve tdng kim ngach xuat va nhap khau nam nam gan day Tdng kim ngach nhap khau tang manh tang vdn FDI cung vdi nhap khau may mde thiet bi va nguyen lieu dau vao Viec tang manh tdng kim ngach xuat nhap khau lam eho md cua nen kinh te Viet Nam cang ldn Do md eda nen kinh te xac dinh bdng tdng kim ngach xuat nhap khau so vdi GDP (ty trgng phan tram cda tdng gia tri xuat nhap khau so vdi GDP) Bieu dd md ta md eua nen kinh te Viet Nam tang qua gan hai thap nien, nam sau cao hdn nam trUde (du cd thang tram vao nhdng nam dau cda thap nien 90 cua the ky trUde) Tuy nhien, tae dgng eda khung hoang tai ehinh toan cau md cua nen kinh te Viet Nam bi thu hep d nam 2009 De thay vai trd cua xua't khau dd'i vdi t a n g trUdng kinh t e , phan dUdi day se tinh toan ddng gdp cda xuat khau vao tang trudng kinh te Viet Nam qua gan hai t h a p nien
Td edng thde tinh GDP, ta biet xuat khau la mdt bd phan quan trgng GDP, mdi sif thay ddi cda xuat khau se keo theo sU thay ddi eua GDP Bieu dd va
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(6)1 NGHIEN cufu TRAO DOI
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9 eho tha'y, tdc tang trUdng xua't khau va tdc tang trUdng kinh te cd md'i tUOng quan chat che vdi Khi tde tang trUdng xua't khau cao thi dan tdi nen kinh te tang trUdng manh, ngUde lai xua't khau giam (2009) thi chi sd phat trien GDP edng giam
Nghien cdu ve md'i quan he gida xuat khau vdi t a n g trUdng kinh te, cd t h e sd dung edng thde:
Td sd lieu thdng ke va ap dung edng thde tren cho ke't qua: nam 2001 tdc tang trudng GDP la 6,89% dd
B a n g 3: Dong gop tang trUdng GDP theo tong c a u giai doan 2001 - 2009
)ll2J0pCW|-GDPcunni
! i " _ T\lelaii»imsXKr ,\K
TvleianslnioiKGDPl'
xuat khau la 0,97% (chie'm ty le 14%.), n a m 2007 GDP tang 8,48%', dd xua't khau la 2,62% (chie'm 24,43%), n a m 2009 xuat khau giam nhu vay ddng gdp cua xuat khau vao tdc tang trUdng cd the coi la so am (Bang 3) Dieu cho tha'y xuat khau la mdt nhan to quan trgng gdp phan thuc day tang trUdng kinh te Viet Nam hdn 20 nam ke td ddi mdi Tde tang trudng thUdng mai qudc te cua Viet Nam tang eao so vdi cac nUde khu vUe va the gidi nhdng nam gan day Hien nay, Viet Nam ddng thd 54 ve gia tri xua't khau va thd 41 ve gia tri nhap khau bang xep hang thUo'ng mai toan eau Bang the hien td'e to tang trudng thUdng mai qudc te cua Viet Nam mdi quan he vdi tang trUdng thUdng mai toan eau So lieu bang eho tha'y, tdc tang trUdng xua't khau td tren 20% den 267f mdi nam (trd nam khung hoang tai ehinh - kinh te toan cau 2009), td'e tang trudng nhap khau eao hdn nhieu (td 22% de'n 36% mdi nam) Dieu dan den nhap
Gia trj theo gia so sanli 1994 - tv dong
( J D P
Tieu diing Tich Itiy -Dau tu Xuat khiiu ronu
Xuat khau Nhap khau Sat s(")
Toe ilo tiing truong (%)
GDP Xuat kliiiu rong
Xuat khau Nhap khau
Dong gop cija X K GDP (%)
: o o 2I1IJ2 2003 2004 2007 2008 2009
292.535 210.027 92.487 -1 1.695 165.292 76 987
1,716 6.89 1,89 14,67 0,97 313,247 225,609 104,256 -21,393 183,533 204,926 4,775 7,118 1.04 15.79 (1.91 336,243 243,515 116,623 -31,448 220,047 251,495 7,553 7,34 19,90 22,72 1.77 392,989 280,535 142,725 -22,315 333,207 355,522 -7,956 8,43 20,49 15,93 2.06 461,466 332,456 210,265 -79,129 452,306 531,435 9198 8,48 22,66 34,77 2.62 489,833 366,045 215,948 -101,784 503,326 605,110 9624 6.23 11.28 32.17 2,17 516.568 381374 225260 -93448 3382 5.32 -9.7 -14.7 -1,1
Nguon: Tinh todn td sd HUu cua Tdng cue Thdng ke vd Ngdn hdng Phdt trien Chdu A
Bang 4: Toe dp tang t n i d n g thu'dng mai quoe te ciia the gidi v a Vi§t Nam giai doan 2000 - 2008
Ddn vi tinh: %/nam
KHII \ I t
1, The gioi ,1 -•> 6 7 Hoa Ky EU-27 ASEAN-6 Trung Quoe Chau A Vicl Natll
XUAT K H A U
2000-2005 5,5 S,5 4.0 X.5 22.5 10.5 19.95 2005 8.5 10.5 7.5 12.0 22.0 13.5 22.7 2007 6.0 7.0 3,5 8,5 19,5 11,5 21,9 2008 5,5 6.0 3.2 8.2 19.0 11.0 26,0
NHAP K H A U
2000-2005 5.5 4.0 8,5 5.5 18.0 8.5 21.25 2006 8.0 5,5 7,0 7.5 16.5 8.5 22.1 2007 5.5 6.5 8,0 5,0 18.5 8,0 39,6 2008 5,3 6,0 6,5 5.0 18.5 8,0 36.0
Nguon: Nien gidm Thdng ke, Tdng cue Thdng he sieu cda Viet Nam cang
tang qua cac nam (Bieu dd 10), tham hut can can thUdng mai tang cao se lam giam tUdng ddi GDP; can can thUOng mai am tde chenh lech xuat nhap GDP giam, tdc GDP giam tuo'ng dng tham hut can can thUdng mai
Nhap khau cda Viet Nam cd tdc tang eao hdn xua't khau da dan de'n tham hut can can
thUdng mai eao (-8,3 ty USD nam 2009), dU kie'n cao hdn 10 ty USD nam 2010 GDP sd dung dUdc xae dinh dUa vao cae ye'u to tdng cau bao gdm tich luy dau tU, tieu dung cud'i cung gdm ehi tieu eua Chinh phu, tieu dung ca nhan va chenh lech xua't - nhap khau, dich vu (Bieu 10)
Trong GDP sd dung ed phan tich luy, tieu dung nUdc
B i e u d o 10: Cd c a u GDP siif d u n g giai d o a n 1990 - 2009
iiinli i g c h X - N K tOii Xirng cit nhAn iiiii diinu Nhii m"*c
Ngudn: Nien gidm thdng ke cdc ndm ta 1990 den 2009, Tdng cue Thdng ke
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nganhang
(7)NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI II
va xuat khau Do ed tde tang trUdng cao, qui md kinh te cang ldn nen ty le tich luy cua n e n k i n h te Viet Nam cang cao Theo sd lieu t h d n g k e , tich luy so vdi GDP t a n g td 14,36% n a m 1990 len 38,13% n a m 2009; tieu dung cudi cung giam, chd ye'u la tieu dung ea n h a n giam td 85,82% n a m 1990 xud'ng edn 66,47% n a m 2009 Tieu dung nha nUdc ed giam nhUng khdng d a n g k e , td 7,7% n a m 1990 xud'ng edn 6,3% n a m 2009 Tuy n h i e n , c h e n h lech xuat n h a p k h a u the h i e n nhap sieu n g a y cang cao, td -7,84% len -15,54% so vdi GDP Dieu giai thieh t a i thu n h a p r d n g td nUdc ngoai cua Viet Nam la so' am tang dan lam eho t d n g thu nhap qud'e gia GNP nhd hdn thu n h a p qud'e ngi GDP Chi tieu cda Chinh phu giam ve ty t r g n g GDP nhUng tang ve so' tuyet dd'i va vUdt thu tao bdi chi eao - 8,9%
n a m 2009 va dU kie'n bdi chi t r e n 8% GDP n a m 2010
Ket l u a n va k i e n nghi
Td cac ket qua phan tieh tren eho mdt so nhan dinh nhU sau: (i) Nhd cd cai each va md eda nen kinh te, kinh te Viet Nam da dat dUde tdc tang trUdng eao lien tuc nhieu nam, cd eau kinh te dich ehuyen theo hudng tich cUc So vdi eae nUdc khu vUe, Viet Nam ed mde tang trUdng cao thd ba, sau Trung Qudc va An Do Vdi tdc tang trUdng kinh te eao, tang dan sd d mde kiem che thap, nam 2008 danh dau mde phat trien cua nen kinh te Viet Nam chuyen td nhdm nUde cd thu nhap thap nhat sang nhdm nude ed thu nhap trung binh Xu hudng kinh te Viet Nam dang dieh chuyen theo hUdng tieh eUc, tang ty trgng khu vUe II, giam ty trgng khu vUc I, ty trgng khu vUc III tUdng ddi dn dinh qua eae nam gan day; (ii) Tang trudng kinh te Viet Nam
ed ddng gdp tieh cUc eda yeu td vd'n (tren 70%) va ddng gdp eda cae yeu td the che Yeu to vdn dUde thu hdt td cac ngudn lUc va ngoai nUde nhd cd chinh saeh ddi mdi kinh te Thay ddi the che tao dieu kien cho cac phan kinh te ngoai nha nUdc phat trien da ddng gdp tich eUc tang trudng va dich chuyen kinh te Viet Nam Su hinh cae vdng kinh te trgng diem thuc day tang trUdng kinh te cua ca nude; (iii) Nhd cd chinh sach hdi nhap, tif hda thUdng mai, hai yeu td quan trgng cda hdi nhap va md cda gdp phan tang trUdng kinh te Viet Nam hdn 20 nam qua dd la thu hut FDI va day manh xuat khau; kinh te tang trUdng cao da gdp phan tang tich luy, ty le tich luy GDP cang tang Tuy nhien, chat lUdng va hieu qua phat trien kinh te cua Viet Nam cdn thap the hien qua viec ddng gdp vao tang trUdng chu yeu nhd vdn nen chi so ICOR cao va mdt tang (binh
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f^ltiie MUiii/ Crtani M&i So X i i i i n
(8)II NGHIEN cufu-TRAO DOI
quan ICOR gan bang cho giai doan 1990-2009), ddng gdp eua yeu to tdng nang suat nhan to thap, nang sua't lao ddng thap Du kinh te Viet Nam dang dich ehuyen theo hUdng tang dan ty trgng khu vUc II, dn dinh cd cau khu VLfc III, song sU dich chuyen dien cham va thieu tinh dot pha Cae nganh edng nghiep ehe bie'n va cdng nghe cao nhU cdng nghiep dien tu, vat lieu cdng nghiep eung nhu cac nganh dich vu eao cap nhu dich vu tai ehinh, khoa hgc cdng nghe, cdn chiem ty trgng thap GDP Do nhap sieu cao nen chenh lech xuat khau - nhap khau GDP cua Viet Nam cang cd so am cao, khoang each chenh lech phat trien gida cac vung cdn qua ldn Nhdng bieu hien tren cho thay phat trien kinh te Viet Nam cdn thieu ben vdng va chat lUdng tang trud'ng eung nhu hieu qua dau tU ehUa eao De nang cao chat lUdng tang trUdng, phat trien ben vdng, Viet Nam can phai xay dUng mdt Cd che, mdt he thdng cac
chinh sach, chien lUdc khac ve chat va d trinh eao so vdi giai doan trUdc Phat trien ben vdng, theo chdng tdi la phai cd mgt cd cau kinh te hien dai dUa tren the manh cda Viet Nam Cd cau kinh te' hien dai, cd nghia la cac nganh nghe cdng nghiep hien dai, tien tie'n dang phat trien cda the gidi; phat trien ben vdng la phai tao mdt ed eau nganh edng nghiep vUdt trdi gdm vUdt trdi ve gia tri gia tang ehgn lgc cac nganh nghe hien dai ed gia tri gia tang cao; vUOt trdi ve ed eau lad ddng va chat lUdng trinh cda ngudn nhan lUc, dae biet la vUdt trdi ve nang sua't lao ddng Chdng tdi cho rang cac ye'u to quyet dinh de nang cao chat lUdng va hieu qua cua phat trien bao gdm: (i) Tao budc nhay vgt ve tang nang suat lao ddng xa hdi; (ii) Nam lay va phat trien cae tie'n bd khoa hge, cdng nghe sac ben nha't eua thdi dai O' day xua't hien vai trd eua khoa hgc cdng nghe mgt each rd rang va tat ye'u; thUc chat tang nang suat lao dgng xa hdi la phat huy vai trd khoa hge edng nghe, dng dung khoa hge cdng nghe mdt each rdng rai va cd dinh hudng eho nen san xua't dong
thdi quan t a m dao tao nguon n h a n life cd trinh cang cao ve khoa hgc cdng nghe De phat trien ben vdng, ngoai nhdng yeu to tren phai bd tri eae khu cdng nghiep cac khu vifc dd thi hda nhUng van dam bao mdi trUdng sinh thai, rut ngdn khoang each phan hda giau ngheo gida cac vung va cac tang ldp dan cU Nang sua't lao ddng ndng nghiep cua chdng ta hien van cdn rat thap, bien phap tang nang suat ndng nghiep la phai ehuyen dich ed cau kinh te De thifc hien dUdc muc tieu tren can phai dau tU manh cho ed sd tang ndng thdn, dau tU phat trien cac nganh kinh te nham thuc day nhanh qua trinh phat trien va dich chuyen cd eau kinh te xa hdi ndng thdn Mat khac, mudn thuc day qua trinh edng nghiep hda, hien dai hda ndng nghiep se tang nhu cau chat lUdng lao ddng (lao ddng cd ham lugng ky thuat cao) va giam dan life lUdng lao ddng ndng nghiep phd thdng, vi vay giai phap dao tao lao ddng chat lUdng eao dap dng yeu cau chuyen ddi kinh te la can thie't
Nang eao chat lUdng tang trUdng va hieu qua dau tU trUdc
^ 6 Xuan»Thcing01-i-U2/20l nganhang
(9)NGHIEN ClJfU-TRAO DOI ^ 1
tien phai cau true Iai nen kinh te, theo dd cd cau kinh te can dich chuyen theo hudng tao nang suat xa hdi cao hdn Mudn vay, nha nUdc phai tao mdi trUdng thuan lgi de thu hut dau tu vao nhdng nganh nghe nha nude khuyen khich phat trien, cd kha nang canh tranh De thu hdt dau tU tu nhan vao nhdng nganh cdng nghe eao phue vu dich chuyen cd cau kinh te thi nha nUde can eung
cap td't cac dieh vu hd trd (cd sd tang, vd'n, cdng nghe, va nhan lUc chat lUdng cao) Giai phap thue day dieh chuyen ed eau kinh te' la tie'p tuc huy ddng cac ngudn life ket hdp gida nha nude va tU nhan, va ngoai nude dau tU phat trien ed sd tang ky thuat va cd sd tang xa hdi; cai thien mdi trUdng dau tU, tao sU lUu thdng lien ke't phat trien vung ddng life hd trd eae vdng ngheo, vung khd khan phat trien; xay dUng qui hoaeh phat trien vdng va khu VLfc theo hUdng sinh thai ben vdng, bd tri hdp ly gida da't ndng nghiep va edng nghiep, tao cac vdng ddng life phat trien de tang tdc tang trUdng ehd ea nude, ddng thdi cd md'i quan he lien vdng de ho trd cac vung khae phat trien giam sU chenh lech qua ldn gida eae vung va gida cac tang ldp dan eU
Giai phap giam thieu nhap sieu bdng each phat trien he thd'ng eae nganh phu trd san xua't nguyen lieu dau vao cho san xuat nUdc thay vi phai nhap khau (san xuat hang thay the nhap khau, trUdc tien la thay the nguyen lieu dau vao cho san xuat); nang cao kha nang eanh tranh eda san pham, tinh canh tranh cao cda nen kinh te de da so cac nUde Td chdc ThUdng mai The gidi sdm edng nhan Viet Nam cd nen kinh te thi trUdng Mdt bien phap quan trgng de nang cao hieu qua eua nen kinh te' Viet Nam la can tie'p tuc ddi mdi, cai each toan dien; cu the la can hoan thien ehinh saeh kinh te, cai each khu vUe kinh 'fy; te' nha nUdc theo hUdng ehi gid mdt so nganh then chdt nhU nhdng nganh dam bao an ninh qud'e phdng, giam qui md nhdng nganh hieu qua thap hoae thdi gian thu hdi vd'n dai danh gia lai md hinh tap doan kinh te nha nudc, phat trie'n khu vUe
kinh te tU nhan nUdc, eung nhu ket hdp eae ngudn lUe va ngoai nUdc dUa nUdc ta hgi nhap nhUng van gid dUde chu quyen phat trien kinh te, coi hdi nhap la nhan td hd trd de phat trien ndi life
Cai each toan dien cung cd nghia la xay dUng mdt he thdng cd che hoan chinh hdn, quy md rdng va phde tap hdn nhUng vdng chac so vdi giai doan tang trUdng ban dau; dae biet kinh te hdi nhap manh vao thi trUdng the' gidi, nhieu van de phde tap phat sinh ddi hdi cd cd che hdu hieu de tan dung ed hdi mdi va ngan ngda bat dn"
Tai lieu tham khao
;, Chinh phu (2010), Tinh hinh kmh
te - xd hpi 11 thdng ndm 2010 2 Tdng cue Thdng ke (1985-2009), Nien gidm Thong kit Viet Nam 3 Trang Web cua IMF, World Bank vd UNDP, Muc: Statistical Data 2008, 2009
4 Charles R Hulten, Edwin R Dean and Michael J Harper (2001), New De-velopments in Productivity Analysis, The University of Chicago Press 5 S.R.Keshava The effect of FDI on India and Chinese Economy, A com-parative analysis Working paper 2006
Vi
f^iie Mifng Qldm M&i (^Jimu TJuit JHuo
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