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中图分类号 学校代码 10512 博士学位论文 P h D D I S S E RTAT I O N “欧债五国”公共债务、通货膨胀对 经济增长的影响研究 研 究 生 ：NGUYEN THI THU HANG 导 师 ：朱小梅 专 业 ：世界经济 研究方向：国际金融 中国武汉 WUHAN, CHINA 2020 年 月 分类号：F124.3 学校代码：10512 学 号： 201707111200001 秘密☆ 年 湖北大学博士学位论文 “欧债五国”公共债务、通货膨胀对 经济增长的影响研究 作者姓名：NGUYEN THI THU HANG 指导教师姓名、职称：朱小梅教授 合作导师姓名、职称： 申请学位类别：经济博士 研究方向 学科专业名称 ：世界经济 ：国际贸易 论文提交日期：2020 年 03 月 20 日 论文答辩日期：2020 年 05 月 30 日 学位授予单位： 学位授予日期： 答辩委员会主席： 年 月 日 Research on the impact of public debt and inflation on economic growth in the PIIGS A Dissertation Submitted for the Doctor Degree Candidate: NGUYEN THI THU HANG Supervisor: Prof Xiaomei Zhu Hubei University Wuhan, China 学位论文使用授权书 本论文作者完全了解学校关于保存、使用学位论文的管理办法及规定，即学校有权保留并向国 家有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和电子版，允许论文被查阅和借阅。本人完全同意《中国博士 学位论文全文数据库出版章程》、《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库出版章程》(以下简称“章 程”，见 www.cnki.net)，愿意将本人的学位论文提交中国学术期刊（光盘版）电子杂志社在《中国 博士学位论文全文数据库》、《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库》中全文发表和以电子、网络及 其他数字媒体形式公开出版，并同意编入 CNKI《中国知识资源总库》，在《中国博硕士学位论文 评价数据库》中使用和在互联网上传播，同意按“章程”规定享受相关权益（请作者直接与杂志社联 系，联系人：栗老师；电话：010－62791817、62793176、62701179；通讯地址：北京 清华大学邮 局 84-48 信箱 采编中心 邮编：100084）。 本授权书签署一式三份，交研究生处学位办。 学位论文作者签名： 导师签名： 年 月 日 年 月 日 湖北大学研究生学位论文作者信息 论文题目 公共债务与通货膨胀相互作用对经济增长的影响研究——以欧债危机国为例 NGUYEN THI THU 姓 名 HANG 院 联系电话 201707111 答辩日期 2020 年 05 月 29 日 200001 博士 √ 硕士□ 论文级别 学 学号 湖北大学商学院 15271918396 专 业 作者 E-mail 世界经济 3553436489@qq.com 作者通信地址(含邮编)： 备注： 注：本论文如需保密，解密时间是 年 月。（保密学位论文在解密后适用于本授权 ABSTRACT After the outbreak of the US financial crisis in 2008, the economies of many countries around the world were severely impacted In response to the impact of the crisis, many countries and regions have implemented expansionary fiscal policies to stimulate the economy, such as using debt (internal debt and external debt) to alleviate the shortage of domestic capital These measures not only have some positive effects, such as improving jobs and increasing national income, but have also caused more significant negative impacts on these countries, such as excessive debt burdens, rising inflation rates, and declining economic growth rates Among these countries and regions where the debt crisis has occurred, the European debt crisis is highly representative The European debt crisis started in Greece in 2009, and then quickly spread to other countries in the Eurozone Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain have the most severe public debt situations These five countries are also called the PIIGS The GDP of the PIIGS accounts for one-third of the Eurozone, but they are also the weakest economies in this area They faced enormous debt pressure before the debt crisis, and their budget deficits were far exceeded the threshold of EU regulation The high public debts of these five countries have not only greatly affected the economies of their own countries and the Eurozone, but also brought serious challenges to the stability of the world economy and global financial markets To reduce the impact of the public debt crisis, the governments of the PIIGS have taken many measures to control the debt crisis and its secondary problems To avoid conflicts between reducing public debt, stabilizing prices, and maintaining economic growth, the governments of the five countries have taken many measures to coordinate monetary and fiscal policies By 2014, the debt crisis in Europe, including these five countries, had declined to some extent In this context, public debt issues, including the European debt crisis, have become hot topics of concern for governments, businesses, and academia Studying the problems related to the public debt I and economic growth of the European debt crisis countries, especially the PIIGS, can provide a specific reference for countries with high public debt and also help expand the research in related fields This thesis selects the PIIGS as the research object, and analyzes the impact of public debt and inflation on the economic growth of these countries This thesis is based on the economic development of the PIIGS before, during, and after the European debt crisis to facilitate better research, and focuses on studying the effects of public debt and inflation on economic growth of the PIIGS during the European debt crisis Therefore, the research period selected in this thesis is from 1999 (at the time of the Eurozone's establishment) to 2018 Firstly, based on a review of relevant literature, this thesis analyzes the situation of public debt, inflation, and economic growth of the PIIGS from 1999 to 2018, focusing on the occurrence, development, and recovery of the public debt crises in these countries Secondly, this thesis analyzes the theory of the impact of public debt and inflation on economic growth in the PIIGS and proposes the following hypotheses for three main variables: public debt has certain negative effects on the economic growth of these five countries; Inflation has a certain positive impact on the economic growth of these five countries; Considering that there is a certain correlation between public debt and inflation, this thesis assumes that the interaction between public debt and inflation may have an impact on the economic growth of these five countries Based on the above theoretical analysis, this thesis uses PMG and the revised CSD and CCE estimation methods to conduct empirical research on the impact of public debt and inflation on the economic growth of the PIIGS The result shows: (1) The public debts of the PIIGS have had a significant negative impact on their economic growth The debt burden of these countries is severe, and repayment is very difficult At the same time, because these countries use government loans mainly for expenditure, and rarely use loans for investment to improve national productivity Therefore, high public debt and long-term fragile financial management have reduced domestic savings, government spending cannot create real value for the economy, and labor productivity declines, leading to a decline in economic growth (2) Inflation has had a specific positive impact on the economic growth of the PIIGS After the debt crisis, the inflation rates of these five countries have all increased, and real GDP has also increased to a certain extent Of course, the economic recovery and growth of these countries may also be related to other stimulus policies adopted by their governments and the assistance provided by the European Union and the IMF (3) There is a certain correlation between public debt and inflation, and the interaction between public debt and inflation has a certain negative impact on the economic growth of these five countries, which may be due to the public debt is not used more for investment As a result, the negative impact of the high public debt on economic growth is more significant than the positive impact of inflation on economic growth, making the combined effect of the two variables on the economic growth negative In particular, it is worth mentioning that when analyzing the impact of public debt on the economic growth of the PIIGS, this thesis found that public debt has a negative impact on the economic growth of these five countries in the short term, but has a positive effect in the long term This thesis further shows that fiscal consolidation based on reducing expenditures is more efficient and has a better impact on long-term growth than fiscal policies based on increasing revenue In particular, tight fiscal policy is effective at reducing recurrent spending instead of reducing spending on education, research, and innovation It can see: After the crisis, the PIIGS continued to implement fiscal austerity policies and cut irrational expenditures, especially recurrent expenditures These measures have restored the economic growth of most of the five countries Based on the above research, this thesis gives specific policy recommendations for the the PIIGS and the European Union to promote economic growth in coordinating and controlling public debt and inflation The thesis shows that the PIIGS need to publish information on national budgets and public debts, be cautious about borrowing, strengthen III public debt management, increase budget revenue, cut public expenditure, and continue to develop the domestic debt market to promote economic growth This thesis also gives relevant suggestions based on the specific economic development of the PIIGS From a European perspective, this thesis believes that the Union needs to: implement more flexible monetary policies in conjunction with the fiscal policies of the Eurozone member countries, design corresponding currency operation, and management mechanisms, and strengthen supervision, expand the group's overall budget and the stabilize fund Key Words: the PIIGS; public debt; inflation; economic growth; European debt crisis 摘要 2008 年美国金融危机爆发后，世界各国经济受到了严重的冲击。为了应对危机的 影响，许多国家和地区实行了扩张性的财政政策以刺激经济，如以举债（内债和外债） 来缓解国内资金不足。这些措施既产生了一些积极效应，如改善了就业，增加了国民 收入，但是也给这些国家造成了较大的负面影响，如债务负担过重，通货膨胀率上升， 经济增长速度下降等。在这些发生债务危机的国家和地区中，欧洲债务危机具有较强 的代表性。欧洲债务危机 2009 年发端于希腊，然后迅速蔓延到欧元区其他国家，其中 葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利、希腊和西班牙的公共债务状况最为严重，这五个国家也因 此被称为“欧债五国”。“欧债五国”的 GDP 占欧元区的三分之一，但它们也是欧元区经 济最为薄弱的几个国家，在债务危机发生前就它们就面临着很大的债务压力，预算赤 字远远超过了欧盟监管的门槛。这五个国家的高额公共债务，不仅对本国及欧元区的 经济造成了极大的影响，也对世界经济和全球金融市场的稳定带来了严重的挑战。为 了减少公共债务危机的影响，“欧债五国”政府采取了许多措施以控制债务危机及其引 发的次生问题。为了避免减少公共债务、稳定物价与保持经济增长之间的冲突，这五 个国家的政府都采取了许多措施以协调货币政策和财政政策。直到 2014 年，包括这五 国在内的欧洲地区的债务危机才得到了一定程度的缓解。在此背景下，包括欧洲债务 危机在内的公共债务问题成为各国政府、企业和学界关注的热点问题。研究欧债危机 国家尤其是“欧债五国”公共债务及经济增长的相关问题，可以为目前具有较高公共债 务的国家提供一定的参考借鉴，也有助于拓展相关领域的研究。 本文以“欧债五国”为研究对象，探讨其公共债务、通货膨胀对这几个国家经济增 长的影响。为便于更好地开展相关研究，本文以欧债危机发生前、发生过程中以及发 生后三个阶段“欧债五国”经济发展的状况为背景，重点研究了欧债危机发生过程中这 五个国家的公共债务、通货膨胀状况及其对经济增长的影响，因此本文选取的时间段 为 1999 年（即欧元区成立的时间）到 2018 年。本文在梳理相关文献的基础上，首先 对 1999-2018 年“欧债五国”的公共债务、通货膨胀以及经济增长情况进行了分析，重点 V 分析了这几个国家公共债务危机的发生、发展和复苏情况。其次，本文对“欧债五国” 公共债务、通货膨胀对其经济增长的影响进行了理论分析，并针对这三个变量提出以 下假设：公共债务对这五个国家的经济增长有一定的负面影响；通货膨胀对这五个国 家的经济增长有一定的正面影响；考虑到公共债务和通货膨胀存在着一定的相关性， 本文假设二者的相互作用有可能会对这五国的经济增长产生影响。在上述理论分析的 基础上，本文采用了 PMG 和修订后的 CSD 与 CCE 估算法，对“欧债五国” 公共债务、 通货膨胀对其经济增长的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明：（1）“欧债五国”的公共债 务对其经济增长都产生了较大的负面影响。这些国家债务负担非常严重，还款难度很 大，同时由于相关国家把政府贷款主要用于支出，而很少把贷款用于投资以提高国民 生产力，因此，高企的公共债务，长期脆弱的财务管理使国内储蓄减少，政府支出不 能为经济创造真正的价值，劳动生产率下降，导致经济增长下滑。（2）通货膨胀对 “欧债五国”的经济增长产生了一定的积极影响，债务危机发生后，这五个国家的通货 膨胀率都有所上升，而实际 GDP 也出现了一定程度的增长。当然这几个国家的经济复 苏和增长可能还与其政府采取的其他刺激经济政策及欧盟、IMF 等提供的援助有关。 （3）公共债务与通货膨胀之间存在一定的相关性，二者在一定程度上的相互作用对这 五个国家的经济增长产生了一定的负面影响，这可能是由于这几个国家的公共债务没 有更多地用于投资，导致其巨额公共债务对经济增长的负面影响大于通货膨胀对经济 增长的正面影响，使得两者共同作用对经济增长的净影响为负。值得一提的是，本文 在分析公共债务对“欧债五国”经济增长的影响时发现，短期内公共债务对这五国的经 济增长有负面影响，但在长期内有积极作用，因此本文进一步认为：当预算约束适用 于经常性支出而不是用于教育、研究和创新性投资时，减少支出的财政政策比增加收 入的财政政策更有效，对长期经济增长的影响也更大。危机后的“欧债五国”不断实施 紧缩的财政政策，削减不合理的支出，尤其是经常性支出，这些举措使得五国中多数 国家的经济恢复了增长。 在上述研究的基础上了，本文对“欧债五国”及欧盟在协调控制公共债务和通货膨 胀以促进经济增长方面提出了具体的政策建议，认为，“欧债五国”有必要公布国家预 Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, 2017, 0(1): 39-94 [34] Jeffry Frieden , Stefanie Walter Understanding the Political Economy of the Eurozone Crisis 2017, 20: 371-390 [35] Kaouther, A., & Besma, T Study of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Inflation: Application to the Countries of the South Side of the Mediterranean - A Panel Data Approach Journal of Social Economics Research 2014, 1(8): 180-190 [36] Kočner, M The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth and Inflation Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 2015, 62(6): 1545-1549 [37] Kongphet Phetsavong and Masaru Ichihashi The Impact of Public and Private Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Asian Countries IDEC Discussion paper, Hiroshima University, 2012 [38] Kwon, G., McFarlane, L., & Robinson, W Public debt, money supply, and inflation: a cross-country study IMF Economic Review 2009, 56(3): 476-515 [39] Lopes da Veiga, J.A., Ferreira-Lopes, A., & Sequeira, T.N Public Debt, Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies South African Journal of Economics 2015, 84(2): 294–322 [40] Mark Copelovitch, Jeffry Frieden, Stefanie Walter The Political Economy of the Euro Crisis Sage journals, 2017 [41] Martin, F.M Debt, Inflation and Central Bank Independence European Economic Review 2015 (7), 129-150 [42] Masoome Fouladi & Hedieh Setayesh & Yazdan Goudarzi-Farahani Factors influencing the formation of corruption in oil-rich countries 2nd International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-Economic Development 7689, EcoMod, 2016 [43] Masoome Fouladi, Yazdan Goodarzi Farahani, Hedieh Setayesh Studying the Factors Affect Economic Corruption in Oil-Rich Countries Journal of Economic Literature, 2016, No.50 185 [44] Mitze, T., & Matz, F Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn? 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obs = 95 F(1, 93) = 44.93 Prob > F = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.3257 Adj R-squared = 0.3185 Root MSE = 33.814 [95% Conf Interval] DEBT Coef Std Err t P>|t| YR 4.245674 633395 6.70 0.000 2.987877 5.503471 -8434.964 1272.495 -6.63 0.000 -10961.89 -5908.041 _cons Test the stationary of DEBT series: Hadri LM test for DEBT -Ho: All panels are stationary Ha: Some panels contain unit roots Time trend: Not included Heteroskedasticity: Robust LR variance: Parzen kernel, lags z Number of panels = Number of periods = 19 Asymptotics: T, N -> Infinity sequentially Statistic p-value 1.4900 0.0681 193 Test Trend Drift of DDEBT series: Source SS df MS Model 54.1992508 54.1992508 Residual 6553.93398 93 70.4724084 Total 6608.13323 94 70.2992897 Number of obs = 95 F(1, 93) = 0.77 Prob > F = 0.3828 R-squared = 0.0082 Adj R-squared = -0.0025 Root MSE = 8.3948 [95% Conf Interval] DEBT Coef Std Err t P>|t| YR 1379032 1572487 0.88 0.383 -.1743616 450168 -274.549 315.9139 -0.87 0.387 -901.8913 352.7933 _cons Test the stationary of DDEBT series: Hadri LM test for DDEBT -Ho: All panels are stationary Ha: Some panels contain unit roots Time trend: Not included Heteroskedasticity: Robust LR variance: Parzen kernel, lags z Number of panels = Number of periods = 19 Asymptotics: T, N -> Infinity sequentially Statistic p-value 3.9275 0.0000 Test Trend Drift of INFL series: Source SS df MS Model 120.766206 120.766206 Residual 167.122457 93 1.79701566 Total 287.888663 94 3.06264535 Number of obs = 95 F(1, 93) = 67.20 Prob > F = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4195 Adj R-squared = 0.4132 Root MSE = 1.3405 [95% Conf Interval] DEBT Coef Std Err t P>|t| YR -.2058497 0251104 -8.20 0.000 -.255714 -.1559855 415.5164 50.44697 8.24 0.000 315.3387 515.6941 _cons Test the stationary of INFL series: Hadri LM test for INFL -Ho: All panels are stationary Ha: Some panels contain unit roots Time trend: Not included Heteroskedasticity: Robust LR variance: Parzen kernel, lags z Number of panels = Number of periods = 19 Asymptotics: T, N -> Infinity sequentially Statistic p-value 1.9122 0.0279 Test Trend Drift of DINFL series: Source SS df MS Model 623747699 623747699 Residual 255.182175 93 2.74389436 Total 255.805923 94 2.72133961 Number of obs = 95 F(1, 93) = 0.23 Prob > F = 0.6346 R-squared = 0.0024 Adj R-squared = -0.0083 Root MSE = 1.6565 [95% Conf Interval] DEBT Coef Std Err t P>|t| YR -.0147939 0310285 -0.48 0.635 -.0764104 0468226 29.6613 62.33656 0.48 0.635 -94.12675 153.4493 _cons Test the stationary of DINFL series: Hadri LM test for DINFL -Ho: All panels are stationary Ha: Some panels contain unit roots Time trend: Not included Heteroskedasticity: Robust LR variance: Parzen kernel, lags z Number of panels = Number of periods = 19 Asymptotics: T, N -> Infinity sequentially Statistic p-value 3.8792 0.0001 195 Appendix 2: Test results of the co-integration relationship between GDP and DEBT, INFL The co-integrated relationship between DGDP and DEBT Calculating Westerlund ECM panel cointegration tests Results for H0: no cointegration With series and covariate Statistic Value Z-value P-value Gt -5.117 -8.361 0.000 Ga -14.411 -2.975 0.002 Pt -11.285 -7.886 0.000 Pa -14.032 -4.716 0.000 The co-integrated relationship of DGDP and INFL Calculating Westerlund ECM panel cointegration tests Results for H0: no cointegration With series and covariate Statistic Value Z-value P-value Gt -2.963 -2.943 0.002 Ga -11.549 -1.794 0.036 Pt -5.616 -2.288 0.011 Pa -9.757 -2.632 0.004 Appendix 3: Results of the Hausman test to choose the PMG model and MG model Coefficients (b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_bV_B)) mg pmg Difference S.E DEBT -460.772 383.7703 -844.5423 991.321 INFL -1240.803 21549.83 -22790.63 22856.03 DEBTINF 69.3386 -124.4797 193.8183 234.8954 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtpmg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtpmg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(3) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = Prob>chi2 = 1.09 0.7793 Appendix 4: The estimated results of the PMG model Iteration 0: log likelihood = -817.06941 (not concave) Iteration 1: log likelihood = -809.38593 Iteration 2: log likelihood = -809.25469 Iteration 3: log likelihood = -807.55877 Iteration 4: log likelihood = -807.48527 Iteration 5: log likelihood = -807.47477 Iteration 6: log likelihood = -807.47475 Pooled Mean Group Regression (Estimate results saved as pmg) Number of obs = 95 Number of groups = Obs per group: = 19 avg = 19.0 max = 19 Log Likelihood = -807.4748 Panel Variable (i): ID Time Variable (t): YR Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] DEBT 383.7703 231.9184 1.65 0.098 -70.78129 838.322 INFL 21549.83 8975.283 2.40 0.016 3958.594 39141.06 DEBTINFL -124.4797 52.64948 -2.36 0.018 -227.6708 -21.28862 EC -.1712946 0655043 -2.62 0.009 -.2996807 -.0429086 DDEBT -86.82248 105.2558 -2.98 0.003 -293.12 119.475 DINFL -336.2718 977.5451 -0.34 0.731 -2252.225 1579.681 DDEBTINFL -.6398473 7.801318 -2.56 0.010 -15.93015 14.65046 DGDP EC SR TINV 548.7745 353.7904 1.55 0.121 -144.6419 1242.191 LABO -604.1734 165.6934 -3.65 0.000 -928.9266 -279.4202 GEXP -84.34553 349.7429 -0.24 0.809 -769.8291 601.138 TELE -603.5593 305.6615 -1.97 0.048 -1202.645 -4.473839 OPEN -115.5716 42.15282 -2.74 0.006 -198.1896 -32.95359 _cons -75520.25 51342.07 -1.47 0.141 -176148.9 25108.36 197 Appendix 5: Estimated results after overcoming CSD and CCE Augmented Mean Group estimator (Bond & Eberhardt, 2009; Eberhardt & Teal, 2010) Common dynamic process imposed with unit coefficient Dependent variable adjusted DGDP All coefficients present represent averages across groups (ID) Coefficient averages computed as unweighted means Mean Group type estimation Number of obs = 95 Group variable: ID Number of groups = Obs per group: = 19 avg = 19.0 max = 19 Wald chi2(4) Prob > chi2 = = 19.63 0.0006 Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] LGDP -.4737626 0455944 -10.39 0.000 -.5631259 -.3843992 DEBT -96.74624 49.47289 -1.96 0.051 -193.7113 2188405 INFL 803.6923 341.4714 2.35 0.019 134.4207 1472.964 DEBTINFL -5.392232 2.411955 -2.24 0.025 -10.11958 -.6648873 TINV 128.3514 151.8166 0.85 0.398 -169.2037 425.9065 LABO -546.0733 188.2005 -2.90 0.004 -914.9396 -177.207 GEXP 82.38854 115.7456 0.71 0.477 -144.4686 309.2457 TELE -151.7719 178.7072 -0.85 0.396 -502.0315 198.4878 OPEN -103.4685 22.15714 -4.67 0.000 -146.8957 -60.04127 _cons 58750.57 11267.66 5.21 0.000 36666.38 80834.77 Root Mean Squared Error (sigma): 700.2490 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS As an international student studying in China, I am very honored to study for a Ph.D at Hubei University I am even more honored to be a student of Professor Zhu Xiaomei and to be able to meet your dear colleagues Before completing my doctoral dissertation, I would like to say thank you to all the teachers, colleagues, friends and relatives who have helped me I completed this thesis under the personal guidance of the respected mentor, Professor Zhu Xiaomei During my Ph.D study at Hubei University, from thesis selection and opening report to the completion, modification, and finalization of the thesis, not only gave me careful teaching all the time but also gave me great help and encouragement in my study and life, which made me gain a lot Here, I would like to express my most sincere thanks to Teacher Zhu Xiaomei for my hard training and teaching over the past three years During the three years of my Ph.D in China, I received the care and help of teachers from Hubei University Business School and many teachers from the School of International Education in my studies and life I want to thank Xu Xiao Tian and Tong Yun who studied together During the study and life, they gave me great help and support, so that I would not be alone, and always felt warm and happy I also want to thank my parents, sons and loved ones They always miss me, and at the same time also helped and encouraged me as much as possible Writing a doctoral dissertation is a major event in my academic career, but I also know that this is just the beginning of my academic career There are still many shortcomings and deficiencies in the writing of this article, so I would like to pay tribute and thanks to all the teachers and experts who have spared valuable time to review my thesis NGUYEN THI THU HANG March 2020, Hubei University School 199 ... Portugal Spain Ireland Italy Average economic growth rate in PIIGS Average economic growth rate of PIIGS Figure 1.3: GDP growth rate of the PIIGS in the period 1999-2018 Source: World Development... recovery of PIIGS countries, and mainly due to the phenomenal growth of Ireland, the average growth rate of PIIGS is always higher than Eurozone The economic growth of countries in the PIIGS group... of the PIIGS before, during, and after the European debt crisis to facilitate better research, and focuses on studying the effects of public debt and inflation on economic growth of the PIIGS