Identifying factors affecting the early retirement decisions of employees meaning for vietnam to reduce the potential labour shortages due to the population ageing

Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol 2, No (2016) 587-597 DISCUSSIONS AND REVIEWS Identifying factors affecting the early retirement decisions of employees: Meaning for Vietnam to reduce the potential labour shortages due to the population ageing Nguyen Thi Thu Ha* Abstract: As the proportion of the elderly population (those aged 60 and over) keeps increasing quickly in most countries in the world, issues related to older people’s employment behavior have drawn a great deal of public attention The ageing workforce will result in the labor shortage and place a huge burden on the public pension system in the near future Therefore, governments are encouraging older workers to continue working later in life, and to delay their retirement to offset the dependence on the support of younger workers In the attention to delay the retirement age it is interesting and important to identify what factors affect employees’ decisions to early retire This paper aims to identify factors affecting employee’s decisions to early retire by critical reviewing relevant literatures, which provides administrators and researchers with a specific and deeper view of early retirement intentions of older workers Then this paper will give recommendations for enabling extended their working lives as well as for reducing the potential labor shortfall for Vietnam in the near future when the society becomes older Keywords: Affecting; factors; older workers; retirement decisions; the ageing workforce Received: 11th April 2016; Revised: 27th September 2016; Accepted: 10th October 2016 Introduction* 2050 Like other countries, the population ageing process in Vietnam is rapid and the percentage of the elderly in the population is increasing, meaning that the percentage of working - age population in the Vietnam labor force will decrease More specific, according to Vietnam General Statistics Office (2011), Vietnam has entered the so-called “ageing phase” since 2011 The increasing rate of ageing population in Vietnam is very fast and will potentially be higher than that in developed countries Western countries took a hundred years to complete the demographic transition, Thailand and Japan-the two countries having been considered as the fastest ageing in the region took 22 years and 26 years The population of world is ageing, and, by world standards, the population can already be described as old in most countries, both developed and developing countries The average age of people in the workforce is increasing, with people also generally living longer The United Nations (2010) indicates that the proportion of the elderly people has been rising globally In 2010, the proportion of people aged 60 and over was 11.0 percent of the world’s population, and is expected to double to 21.8 percent of total population by * The University of Danang, University of Economics, Vietnam; email: nguyenthithuhaktdn@gmail.com 587 N T T Ha / Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol 2, No (2016) 587-597 respectively to transit from an “ageing” to an “aged” phase, while Vietnam only spent 20 years to finish (United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA] 2011) In addition, the proportion of the elderly at the age of 60-plus in Vietnam was 8.69 % in 2009, increases rapidly to 11.78 % in 2019 and will triple to 24.8 by 2049 that is much higher than the world ageing figure (21% in 2050) In line with the rapid increase in the ratio of ageing population, the ratios of young people under 15 and of working age population decreased after a period of rapid growth in Vietnam in the past decade The reason for this phenomenon stems from many causes, with the leading ones being a sharp drop in the total fertility rate (TFR) from 2.33 in 1999 to 2.10 children per woman in 2015, and an increase in life expectancy of people in Vietnam from 72.2 years old in 2005 to 73 years in 2011 and 74 in 2015 Given the current average life expectancy and the continuing upward trend in the coming years, it is obvious that the average life expectancy in our country is much higher than the overall average of developing countries which stands at around 68 (Statistical Handbook of Vietnam) Along with the rapid population ageing process in Vietnam, the percentage of working - age population in the labor force also increase from 50.49% in 1979 to 58.38% in 1999 and to 65.86% in 2009 However, the proportion of working-age population in Vietnam is estimated to increase to reach the peak of 71% in 2020, but then this proportion will start declining, which will lead to the shortage of labour in the Vietnam labor market in coming years Despite the rapid ageing population, older workers find it harder to get and keep a job They are kept out of the workforce for longer, and suffer from the effects of ageism (Encel et al 2004) In addition, most of older workers in Vietnam are retiring early-before the traditional 588 age of retirement The average age of retirement from full-time work in Vietnam was 54.2 years in 2012 (compared to 57.5 years for the normal retirement age) (Vietnam Social Insurance 2012) Combined with decreasing average hours worked caused mainly by the increase in part-time work compared with fulltime work, and the continuing trend for early retirement, this decline means that the future pool of skilled labor is likely to be insufficient and the huge increase in the number of retirees due to early retirement will become a burden to society, leads to the labor shortages (The Ministry of Labor- Invalids and Social Affairs 2014) Hence, in order to reduce the potential labor shortfall and the burden of government pension funds; there is a need to understand what factors affect employees’ decisions to retire This paper aims to identify factors affecting the retirement decisions of employees by critical reviewing relevant literatures, which provide administrators and researchers with a better view of older worker’s retirement intentions, and then gives recommendations for enabling extended working lives as well as for reducing the potential labor shortfall for Vietnam in the near future when the society becomes older Factors affecting the retirement decision The reasons for retiring are influenced by a number of factors More specifically, Patrickson and Clarke (2001) argued there are three main factors that contribute to older workers’ decisions about retirement, including health, financial circumstances and employment opportunities However, Wolcott (1998) suggested the main reasons for retiring were family, health, redundancy/employment, partner considerations, and wanting to pursue different activities Additionally, Gustman and Steinmeier (1994) found pension-plan 589 N T T Ha / Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol 2, No (2016) 587-597 incentives, health status, job difficulty, and an interaction with the spouse’s choice of retirement were the most important factors in the retirement decision Therefore, in order to understand this paper clearly, the researcher collects and divides factors affecting individual’s retirement decisions into two distinct levels, namely micro level-individual retirement decisions and macro level-the impact of policy and socio-economic trends on retirement decisions 2.1 Micro level: Individual retirement decisions The existing literature on retirement posits that there are a number of factors influencing older workers’ retirement decisions Among these factors, finance and health appear to be the biggest influences, affecting an individual’s decision to retire However, both these factors not show a straight forward and unambiguous impact on retirement Individuals will respond to different financial and healthrelated circumstances in different ways, depending on how these considerations interact with other factors Additionally, labor market experience, retirement behavior, redundancy, family and households structures are other main factors influencing individuals’ retirement decisions that mentioned in a number of related studies The first important factor concerning the retirement decision is that of the individual’s financial circumstances An individual’s financial situation includes issues of savings, both personal and superannuation, housing ownership, other investments, dependence of others (children, elderly parents, and sick relatives), expected income stream from combined pension and superannuation, and adequacy of health insurance If the individual’s finance is very healthy, the decision to retire may be possible at any age or stage In contrast, if the individual’s finance is very unhealthy, the retirement decision may not be realistic at a particular point in time As society becomes older, one effect of longer life expectancy is that people commonly having children later in life, and hence, they may still be financially responsible for children at the retirement age In addition, these people may have parents that are still alive, thus their parents health care costs are likely to be greater and to go on for longer In other words, the older Baby Boomers are already becoming financially sandwiched in their need to provide for two other generations (O’Neill 1998: 178) These two financial imperatives and living longer due to healthier lifestyles and improvements in medicine may push employees to continue working or attempt to return to the workforce Moreover, government-funded social service payments will probably dwindle and individuals will need far more to financially fend for themselves, suggests that some older people will be forced to continue working because they will be unable to live on their accumulated savings, superannuation and pension Evidence from the United State supports this possibility, as that country’s economic crisis recently resulted in some older workers not being able to retire, and some retirees returning to work, because of their reduced retirement savings and investments (Clement 2004) Furthermore, a research was conducted by Chan and Stevens (2008) indicated that the inheritance affects old workers’ retirement decision More specific, the receipt of large inheritance sums encourages early retirement (Chan et al 2008) Furthermore, the influence is more pronounced if the inheritance is unexpected - suggesting that it is wealth shocks rather than wealth per se which has the greatest influence on retirement (Brown et al 2010) In contrast, other research suggests that financial considerations were not the most important motivator in the decision to retire N T T Ha / Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol 2, No (2016) 587-597 Leonard (1999) found that many of older workers remain stayed on the job not because of financial needs, but because their work colleagues had become like family to them, and “their pride and self-esteem are also linked to the notion that they are making a contribution to society” (Leonard 1999: 28) Similarly, Gardyn (2000) argued money was not the main motivator for older workers continuing to work, instead, the main motivators were found to be the desire to keep active and to maintain social interaction with others and to feel productive The second important factor concerning the retirement decision of older people is their health Researchers are virtually unanimous on the notion that ill-health leads to earlier retirement For example, in a study for the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), Humphrey et al (2003) surveyed 2800 people aged 50-69 A half of those retired answered that the reason of early retirement is ill-health Sheen (1999) reported the major reason for retiring is ill-health or injury (37 percent of males and 19 percent of females), and retrenchment (15 and 11 percent, respectively), but argued ill-health may be a cover for stress, being under-valued or negative work environments (Sheen 1999: 6) Similarly, Parnes and Sommers (1994) argued one of the key impacts of continuing to work was individual good health Wolcott (1998) found the main reasons for retiring at any age were family, health, redundancy, partner considerations, and other reasons, such as wanting to pursue different activities From such findings, it seems clear that health is a significant influence on retirement decisions; however, its impact is felt through interaction with other factors (Parnes et al 1994) Another important health factor is the health of worker’s partner Wolcott (1998) found if their partner is in poor health, men will continue to work to provide greater financial 590 resources, while women are more likely to have to retire early or leave the workforce, in order to directly care for their partner Moreover, Arskey et al.’s (2005) study showed that caring responsibilities curtails the employment options of people approaching retirement Many people have to give up their work or are forced to retire to care their partner even if the desire and financial need to continue working remains Once their care responsibilities came to an end, it is difficult for older people to return to work Furthermore, ill-health does not influence upon the retirement decisions of all social groups Humphrey et al (2003) showed that male and people who less educated usually early retired due to ill-health Paradoxically, of those still in work, expectations of early retirement were greater among those with highskilled level, professional or managerial occupations, and married people Thus, lowerskilled workers were more likely to retire later for financial reasons and more likely to be forced to retire early because of ill-health In general, the impact of health is widelyrecognised, however, the issue is that health factors are usually self-reported, leading not to be entirely trustworthy People who enjoy work tend to downplay health conditions, while people who are keen to retire may exaggerate health conditions Thus, it is necessary to focus on related-factors when evaluating the impact of health on retirement decisions (Dwyer et al 1999) The third factor affecting the older people’s decision to retire is labor market experience The impact of finance and health on retirement decisions is mitigated by individuals’ experience of the labor market during their working life Those with higher earnings or spent the most time in work will have better pensions coverage, and thus more options from a financial perspective to consider early retirement Although there is no clear evidence 591 N T T Ha / Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol 2, No (2016) 587-597 on average retirement ages for different income groups, Arkani and Gough (2007) showed that men and women from black Caribbean origins and men from Pakistani origins tend to retire later that are due to lower incomes and less time spent in employment In addition, in a study of retirement behavior of British civil servants, Mein et al (2000) found that those in managerial and professional positions were far more likely to retire early than those in clerical and support positions The longer they had been civil servants-accruing generous pension entitlements-the more likely they were to retire early However, these findings have been partly contradicted by Blekesaune et al ’s (2008) quantitative study on factors affecting retirement They argued that people in professional and managerial positions are actually more likely to retire later than lowerskilled workers One of their main Blekesaune et al ’s findings is that later entry into the labor market encourages working later into life This may be related to the need to work for longer to accrue pension entitlement While generous provision enables early retirement, the overall incentive structure encourages staying in employment Moreover, Blekesaune et al.’s (2008) main explanation is that the children of professional and managerial workers are more likely to join the labour market at a later age due to staying longer in full-time education, and to work for longer due to a greater work ethic and the satisfaction derived from the status associated with their employment Blekesaune et al.’s findings may support other research that suggests job conditions are a major influence on retirement decisions Siegrist et al ’s (2007) comparative study of ten European countries found that poor quality of work (measured on both an effort/reward ratio and a demand/control ratio) was significantly associated with early retirement They argue therefore that quality of work belongs alongside health and finance as the main determinants of retirement decisions Inevitably, lower-paid and lower-status jobs also tend to be poorer quality jobs in this regard Furthermore, Meadows (2003) has argued that one of the main reasons for early retirement is redundancy As such, “part of the drift towards early retirement comes through unemployed older people who give up trying to find work”-in other words, people decide to retire early because of the difficulty of finding new employment in later life Health and poor job quality (alongside a good pension) are reasons for older employees taking voluntary redundancy The retirement decisions of self-employed people have received a lot of attention On average, the self-employed retire later than employees (Parker et al 2007) Meadows (2003) has suggested this may be because selfemployment is intrinsically more enjoyable and rewarding than employment In Humphrey et al ’s (2003) study, cited above, in of those surveyed was self-employed For those also aged above state pension age, this increased to in They reported that selfemployment better suited the transition to retirement Sainsbury et al (2006) reported that self employment allowed people to “wind down” before full retirement However, only 56 percent of those surveyed by Humphrey et al (2003) had a private pension (compared to 72 per cent of employees), suggesting that the financial compulsion to continue working was also greater for the self-employed This is supported by Sainsbury et al (2006), who found that most self-employed people, especially women, have no private pension coverage Even those that have coverage only contribute small amounts, and would be prepared to cease contributions if their day-to-day financial N T T Ha / Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol 2, No (2016) 587-597 circumstances worsened Overall, Sainsbury et al ’s qualitative study of 40 self-employed people found no clear causality regarding retirement Those who intended to retire early were either financially secure, or fed up with the work Those intending to work later were either continuing through financial necessity, or derived satisfaction from the work It would be logical to assume that those earning the least would enjoy their work less With regards to family and households structures, this factor impacts on retirement decisions in a number of ways Some studies report that the reason that women are more likely to retire above state pension age is that female state pension age is lower than male state pension age, and couples often make joint decisions to retire at the same time This is something also found by Mock and Cornelius (2007) Mock and Cornelius (2007) argued that the marriage encourages retirement planning, but also that couples more satisfied with their relationship also tend to plan their retirements together Interestingly, Department for Education and Skills in the United Kingdom (DfES) (2000) research has found that single people tend to retire later The desire to maintain social relations through employment may be more important to single people rather than couples Blekesaune at al.’s (2008) research also indicates that family may affect labor market More specific, they argue that the later in life that one enters into a permanent relationship and become a parent, the later you will work 2.2 Macro level: impact of policy and socio-economic trends The previous part considered the impact of a range of individual circumstances and characteristics on retirement decisions The following part considers the impact of three 592 important trends: an ageing society, the pensions system, and economic change Even though in the postwar period life expectancy has increased significantly, retirement ages have not increased in line with this change While increased longevity surely changes the context of retirement decisions, it does not have a determining impact This may be due to the fact that healthy life expectancy has not increased at the same rate as life expectancy (Mayhew 2010) Moreover, it could be that an ageing society has contributed to earlier retirement by legitimizing the idea of a sustained period of leisure in later life As Barr (2010: 6) mentioned, “the purpose of retirement has changed-it no longer exists primarily to clear dead wood out of the labor force, but to provide a period of leisure in later life, as part of a civilized society” It may be that we need to consider also perceptions of life expectancy as well as life expectancy itself People may be living longer, but their retirement decisions are affected by how long they expect to live? Research by Salinge and Henkens (2010), based on a study of retirement behavior in the Netherlands over the last decade, shows that life expectancy influences retirement decisions In other words, the longer people expect to live, the later they will retire; if people not expect to live for a long time, they will retire earlier With regards to pensions system, obviously, the state pension is not accessible until state pension age, but it is difficult to say that it acts as an incentive to retire early In fact, the capacity of individuals to “defer” receipt of the state pension means that this aspect of the system provides an incentive to retire later Moreover, Humphrey et al (2003) have noted that women work less than men across all age groups In fact, women are compelled to retire earlier than men due to the lower female state pension age and the discrimination against women in some 593 N T T Ha / Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol 2, No (2016) 587-597 countries Humphrey et al (2003) also mentioned that people will not be able to resolve this conundrum until the male and female state pension ages are equalized In addition, according to Humphrey et al (2003), it is difficult to fully determine the impact of the pensions system on average retirement ages As for economic change, various researchers on retirement have noted the impact of industrial change on average retirement ages The postwar period has seen the onset of the decline of manufacturing in favor of the services sector While this process is not directly related to individual decisions about retirement, it has seemingly shaped the tendency to withdraw from the labor market before state pension age in recent decades, particularly for men Meadows (2003) has identified technological and organizational shocks as “push” factors towards early retirement in the United Kingdom, and as such, and relates these to rapid economic change from the 1980s onwards Duval (2003) produced similar findings in his OECD-wide study He found the declining productivity of low-skilled older workers, given manufacturing decline, operated as “push” factor, but also that increasingly low wages for the affected workers operated as a “pull” factor towards early retirement In a similar study specifically on the United State labor market, Coile and Levine (2009) have argued that economic downturns create conditions for early retirement, mainly because labor market conditions for lower-skilled workers become unfavorable Blundell and Turner (1999) have argued that the early retirement of a generation of older workers in the 1980s and 1990s was in fact precipitated by the recessions in those decades Firms dispensed with older workers with obsolete skills, and they found it impossible to rejoin the labor market even as the economy recovered Many commentators have suggested that age discrimination is one of the main reasons that people withdraw from the labor market earlier than expected However, there are few studies that demonstrate that age discrimination has increased in the postwar period, therefore explaining declining retirement ages In fact, interest in age discrimination, and legal efforts to combat it, have increased in the last two decades, as the average retirement age has seemingly started to rise However, the DfES (2000a) study argues that age discrimination has been bound up with industrial decline Rather than make people redundant, firms preferred to insist upon early retirement for older workers This is a discriminatory practice, but it results from economic change rather than a cultural ageism in the labor market As regarding to Vietnam, according to The Ministry of Labor - Invalids and Social Affairs (2014), the quality of Vietnam’s employees is low, especially for older workers, therefore it is difficult to get and keep a good job Consequence, these older employees keep out of the workforce for longer and find it harder to get a job That is one of main reasons they decide to retire early In addition, the survey was conducted by the Centre for Consultancy and Transfer of Occupational Safety Health and Environmental Protection Technology in the South of Vietnam indicated that because of poor working conditions, Vietnamese employees faced to health problems such as illhealth, illness and injury Health problems lead to early retirement (Vietnam News 2012) Another reason of deciding early retirement of older workers is that because of having a low wage, these employees decide on retire early in order to spend more time for relax after the working period or for their family such as looking after their grandchildren, helping their N T T Ha / Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol 2, No (2016) 587-597 children or taking care their father and mother… (Doãn Tâm Long et al 2014) More important, the pensions system and government policies is the main reason of early retiring of Vietnamese workers More specially, the process of rapid population aging poses major challenges for social welfare programs and puts a great deal of pressure on the working age population in Vietnam According to Vietnam Social Insurance, rising life expectancy leads to a surge in the number of elderly in the near future, which would highly likely cause the pension fund to burst, adversely affect the economic development of our country The International Labor Organization (ILO) recently said that Vietnam’s pension fund will start to be in deficit in 2024, depleted by 2027 The latest figures of the Vietnam’s Social Security Fund also prove ILO’s warnings valid From 2007 to 2013, the pension fund must pay 3,200 more new retirees every year In 2012, the number of beneficiaries entitled to pension increased by 1.78 times and pension payout increased by 4.11 times compared to 2007 (United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) 2011) Vietnam’s Social Security Fund report also pointed out that: "In the coming years, the higher the number of retirees enjoying the social security fund, the pension expenses will increase and the fund will be in deficit in the foreseeable future From 2024 onward, to ensure the adequate pension expenses and death benefit, there is a need to incorporate budget surplus into its revenues" (Vietnam Social Insurance 2015) Like ILO, Vietnam’s Social Security Fund also forecast that its imbalance will start experiencing imbalance in 2024, and depletion in 2037 The future depletion of the social security fund will raise the government budget deficit, negatively affecting Vietnam’s economic development As a result, increasing the retirement age in next years or encouraging employees working in the labor market for a longer time will be the best choice of 594 government for coping with the future depletion of the social security fund Recommendations for Vietnam to reduce the potential labor shortage due to the rapid population ageing The biggest challenges of the government of Vietnam is how to solve the pensions fund deficit and provide the social security for the growing elderly segment of the population According to Vietnam Social Insurance and Social Issues Commission of the National Assembly (2015), the best recommendation for Vietnam in this situation is how to extend the working life of older workers This implies that by extending the working life of older workers, they can support themselves and reduce the burden of dependent elderly population Even if the desire and capacity to remain in work of older workers exists, in practice extending their working lives depend on the availability of appropriate jobs, ensuring that the jobs undertaken by older workers are appropriate to their life-stage However, there remain difficult questions around both employer practices and the financial and legal architecture of employment decisions Moreover, based on the situation of Vietnam social insurance fund and some reasons of early retirement decision of older workers, the following recommendations are suggested for Vietnam that enable extended working lives in a sustainable way: - Firstly, more resources should be committed the preventative healthcare In addition, more research on the relationship between ill-health and job quality is required to enable more effective healthcare interventions - Secondly, the job quality should be a higher priority for employment policy, particularly for older workers This may 595 N T T Ha / Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol 2, No (2016) 587-597 require more attention to how expectations of job quality change over the life course - In addition, the default retirement age is discriminatory and should be abolished While firms must be able to manage their workforces, government should focus instead on enabling employers to offer downshifting options, especially to low-skilled workers - People should be able to draw down pension entitlements in more flexible ways, to enable gradual retirement Government should consider part payments of state pensions, and encourage the private sector to cooperate - Moreover, more effort is required to reduce complexity in the pensions system, and to increase the provision of advice and information, to enable people to plan ahead more effectively for retirement - Higher levels of education enhance individuals’ labor market options in later life Lifelong learning should be encouraged, to enable people to acquire multiple, transferable skills in the labor market For older people, in particular, skills development needs to be shaped by the actual jobs available, to enable sustainable returns to employment for those affected by economic change People with informal caring responsibilities in households require greater support from employers and government to remain in work - Last but not least, government should encourage the self-employment of older people because self-employment may enable people to work more flexibly in later life Conclusions The ageing workforce has created a number of issues, one of which is the increased interest in and importance of the retirement of older workers, resulting in labor shortages and huge pension systems in the near future In fact, governments are encouraging older workers to continue working later in life, and to delay their retirement to offset the dependence on the support of (the fewer) younger workers as well as reduce the potential labor shortfall However, it is not easy to identify exactly what factors influence older workers’ decisions to retire This paper tries to identify factors affecting older people’s retirement intentions The results of this research have useful implications for managers and public administrators Furthermore, these findings suggest administrators need to consider both the influences of personal circumstances and individual characteristics on retirement decisions as well as the aggregate impact of three important macro factors: an ageing society, the pensions system, and economic change in order to encourage older 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