Evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation to climate change of aquaculture farmers in phu vang district, thua thien hue province

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY o0o NGUYEN THI MAI EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF AQUACULTURE FARMERS IN PHU VANG DISTRICT, THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE MASTER THESIS KHANH HOA - 2018 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY o0o NGUYEN THI MAI EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF AQUACULTURE FARMERS IN PHU VANG DISTRICT, THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE MASTER THESIS Marine Ecosystem based Management Major: and Climate Change Code: Topic allocation Decision Decision on establishing the Committee: Defense date: Suppervisors: Dr PHAM THI THANH THUY Prof CLAIRE ARMSTRONG Chairman: Faculty of Graduate Studies: KHANH HOA - 2018 ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to thank Professor Claire Armstrong, my international supervisor, for her guidance, advices and comments in building and writing this thesis I would also like to thank Dr Pham Thi Thanh Thuy, my national supervisor, who provided me with valuable instructions, generous support and encouragement during the development of this study Finally, I’m very grateful to my family: my parents, and to my brother, and husband for encouraged me and created favorable conditions for me during the time I was conducting this study Thank you! Khanh Hoa, Date month year 2018 Author Nguyen Thi Mai iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENT iii TABLE OF CONTENTS iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS vi LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF FIGURES viii ABSTRACT ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research problems 1.2 Research Objectives 1.3 Research questions 1.4 Literature review CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND 2.1 Geographical location .7 2.2 Economic sectors 2.3 Overview of aquaculture in Phu Vang district 2.3.1 Prawn polyculture and prawn monoculture 2.3.2 Aquaculture labor 2.3.3 Area of aquaculture .10 2.3.4 Production of aquaculture 11 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY .13 3.1 Research process 13 3.2 Measurement of efficiency .13 3.3 Data collection 14 iv 3.3.1 Secondary data 14 3.3.2 Primary data 14 3.4 Sampling method 14 3.5 Method 16 3.5.1 Propensity Score Matching Method 16 3.5.2 Analyze the factors affecting the application of farming models adapted to climate change 17 CHAPTER 4: RESULT 23 4.1 Factors effects affecting adoption in adaptation models to climate change of farmers 23 4.2 Effects of the climate change adaptation model on economic efficiency 27 CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 31 REFERENCES 34 APPENDICES .38 v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ATE : Average treatment effect ATT : Average treatment effect for the treated DEA : Data Warehouse Analysis EUR : Euro GO : Gross Output IC : Intermediate costs IMOLA : Integrated Management of Lagoon Activities Program MARD : Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Develoment MONRE : Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment NCHMF : National Centre for Hydro - Meteorological Forecasting National Hydro - Meteorological Service OLS : Ordinary Least Squares PSM : Propensity score matching QĐ : Decision SLM : Straight Line Method TTH : Thua Thien Hue UBND : People's Committee VA : Added value vi LIST OF TABLES Page Table 2.1: Economic sectors in Phu Vang district Table 2.2: Distribution of communes and labors in Phu Vang district 10 Table 3.1: Area of aquaculture by communes 15 Table 3.2: Definition of variables 20 Table 4.1: Descriptive Statistics of characteristics of households applying prawn monoculture model and prawn polyculture model 24 Table 4.2: Descriptive Statistics of the Economic Performance of households 25 Table 4.3: Factors influencing adoption of prawn polyculture model 26 Table 4.4: Assessing the balancing of individual covariates before and after Matching 28 Table 4.5: Effects of climate change adaptation model on profit 29 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Map of Phu Vang district Figure 2.2: Area of aquaculture (ha) in Phu Vang district 11 Figure 2.3: Production of aquaculture (tonnes) in Phu Vang district 11 Figure 3.1: Research steps 13 Figure 3.2: Map of Vinh An, Vinh Ha community 16 viii ABSTRACT This paper uses a propensity score matching method (PSM) to examine the factors affecting the adoption of a polyculture model in prawn aquaculture, and compares the economic efficiency between the polyculture and the monoculture model used by farmers in the Phu Vang district, Thua Thien Hue province The results show that the aquaculturists’ age, education, production area, sainity, and participation in training courses have a positive influence on the application of polyculture When comparing the economic efficiency between the two models we show that the prawn polyculture model is more economically efficient than the prawn monoculture model Moreover, the prawn polyculture model is more efficient and more flexible in harvesting the species living in the same pond, and the environment is improved by species supporting each other in the food chain In addition, training more extension workers and conducting more aquaculture training courses is suggested in order to have the desired increase in productivity ix CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research problems Climate change is a matter concerning all humanity It has direct impact on economic life, society and the global environment The temperature rise causes sea level rise and flooding, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters affects the socio-economic development of many countries, especially developing countries (MONRE, 2008) Thus, climate change has become an issue of geography, economics and politics, and is a focus of mankind in the 21st century Over the years, many parts of the world have suffered a multitude of natural disasters such as typhoons, floods, droughts and other extreme climatic events causing great damage to human lives and materials (MONRE, 2008) Vietnam is considered as one of the five countries most affected by climate change and natural disasters around the world, including storms, floods, flash floods, damaging cold, droughts, and storm surges The majority of these events relate to severe weather conditions, and frequency and intensity of disasters are dependent on the weather and climate in every season Climate change has the potential to make the above-mentioned types of natural disasters become even more dangerous, resulting in further impacts Thua Thien Hue (TTH) is a coastal province in north-central Vietnam It covers 503,320.53 in area, and had a population of 1,127,905 in 2013 (Thien, 2013) According to statistics of the General Statistics Office, sandy coastal areas accounted for 18.2% of the natural area of the province In the region, the Tam Giang - Cau Hai lagoon located from north to south, divides the region into two sand areas The total area of Tam Giang - Cau Hai lagoon is approximately 21.600 It plays a crucial role in the livelihoods of farmers living along the edge of the lagoon (Thien, 2013) An estimated 300.000 people in these areas have livelihoods tied to the extraction of resources from the lagoon (Xuan, 2005) Phu Vang district is a coastal plain, including Tam Giang – Cau Hai lagoon Phu Vang is a coastal area which is directly affected by climate change such as floods, storms, droughts, storm surges (Thien, 2013) Especially, in recent years, Thua Thien ... using the PSM method The subject of my master thesis is therefore ? ?Evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation to climate change of aquaculture farmers in Phu Vang district, Thua Thien Hue province? ??...MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY o0o NGUYEN THI MAI EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF AQUACULTURE FARMERS IN PHU VANG DISTRICT,. .. 2016 on the approval of restructuring the Thua Thien Hue province? ?? agricultural sector towards enhancing added value and sustainable development in the 2016-2020 period, the orientation of aquaculture