Assessment of flood control alternatives for dong tham muoi region, south vietnam

FLOOD FORECASTING AND AWARENESS PROGRAM FOR THE THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE, VIETNAM by Hoang Thanh Tung A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering Examination Committee: Prof Ashim Das Gupta (Chairman) Dr Mukand Singh Babel (Co-Chairman) Dr Dushmanta Dutta Nationality: Vietnam Previous Degree: Bachelor of Water Resources Engineering Hanoi Water Resources University, Vietnam Scholarship Donor: MARD/DANIDA Vietnam Scholarships Asian Institute of Technology School of Civil Engineering Bangkok, Thailand July 2004 Acknowledgements I wish to express my deepest gratitude and sincere appreciation to my advisor Professor Ashim Das Gupta and to my co-advisor Dr Mukand Singh Babel for their patient guidance, valuable advices and continuous encouragements throughout the study I also express my profound gratitude to committee member, Dr Dushmanta Dutta for his valuable suggestions, recommendations and encouragements I wish to acknowledge the various supports from the Standing Office of the Provincial Committee for Flood and Storm Control of Thua Thien Hue, Provincial Hydrometeorological Services of Thua Thien Hue, the Research Institute of Hydro-meteorology, the UNDP project office VIE/97/002 – Support to the Disaster Management System in Vietnam during my data collection I am grateful to the Hanoi Water Resources University/DANIDA Vietnam for providing financial support throughout the study period I wish to extend my deepest sense of gratitude to beloved parents, wife and daughters for their endless love and inspirations Finally, appreciation is extended to everyone whose name is not mentioned but directly or indirectly helped me to complete this study i Table of Contents Chapter Title I II III IV Page Introduction 1.1 General Introduction 1.2 Description of the Study Area 1.3 Description of the Huong River 1.4 Problems and Need of Study 1.5 Objectives of Study 1.6 Scope and limitation of Study Literature Review 2.1 Flood Forecasting 2.2 Geographical Information Systems in Hydrology and Water Resources 2.3 Flood inundation maps 10 2.4 Integration of GIS, Remote Sensing and Hydrological/Hydraulic Models for Flood Warning 11 Theoritical Consideration 13 3.1 Flood Forecasting 3.1.1 Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) 3.1.1 Multi-variable Regression Analysis 13 13 16 3.2 Flood inundation mapping 3.2.1 Rainfall - Runoff Model HEC-HMS 3.2.2 VRSAP Models 17 17 18 3.3 GIS model 22 Data Collection and Methodology 23 4.1 Data collection 4.1.1 Hydrometeorological data 4.1.2 Bathymetric data 4.1.3 GIS and Remote Sensing data 23 23 26 26 4.2 Methodology 4.2.1 Development of a suitable flood forecasting method for downstream areas 4.2.2 Development of Flood inundation mapping 4.2.3 Recommendation of a program for improvement of public awareness for flood preparedness and mitigation 27 27 29 ii 33 Chapter Title V Page Results and Discussions 34 5.1 Data analysis 5.1.1 Rainfall data 5.1.2 Runoff data 34 34 35 5.2 Flood forecasting model for downstream area 5.2.1 Approach for flood forecasting: 5.2.2 Selection of suitable forecasting time 5.2.3 Selection of the best model for flood forecasting at Kim Long 37 37 37 38 5.3 Flood inundation mapping 5.3.1 Selection of flood warning scenarios 5.3.2 VRSAP model setup, calibration and verification 5.3.3 Development of flood inundation maps 44 44 46 50 5.4 Recommended program for improvement of public awareness for flood preparedness and mitigation 5.4.1 Institutional framework for disaster mitigation in Vietnam and knowledge of local people in the Thua Thien Hue Province for disaster preparedness 5.4.2 Recommended program for improvement of public awareness for flood preparedness and mitigation VI Conclusions and Recommendations 60 60 63 71 6.1 Summary 71 6.2 Conclusions 71 6.3 Recommendations 6.3.1 Recommendation for implementation 6.3.2 Recommendation for future research 72 72 72 Apendixes 73 Apendix 74 I Report on the current status of gauging stations network in the Huong River System Basin of Thua Thien Hue Province 75 II Cross section data and schematization of the Huong River System for VRSAP model 76 Apendix I Statistical Tools II Results from the calculation of hours ahead - flood forecasting for downstream areas of the Huong River system at Kim Long by Multi-variable Regression method III Results from the calculation of hours ahead-flood forecasting for downstream areas of the Huong River system at Kim Long by BPNN method 80 81 Apendix I Calibration and verification results of the HEC-HMS model for Duong Hoa, 97 iii 86 90 Chapter Title Page Binh Dien, and Co Bi basins to calculate un-observed inflow at upstream boundary and lateral inflows II Recommended specifications for upgrading of the gauging station network in the Huong River system basin References 94 98 104 iv List of Figures Figure Title Page 1.1 Administration map of the Thua Thien Hue Province 1.2 Causes of disasters in the Thua Thien Hue Province 1.3 Flood warning for the Thua Thien Hue Province 3.1 A typical three layer feed forward artificial neural network 13 3.2 An artificial neural network building block with activation function 13 3.3 Logistic activation function 14 3.4 Flowchart of the back propagation algorithm 16 4.1 Gauging network in the Thua Thien Hue Province 24 4.2 Cross section locations on the Huong River system in Thua Thien Hue Province 25 4.3 Flowchart of overall methodology of this study 28 4.4 Flowchart of methodology for development of suitable flood forecasting method for downstream areas 28 4.5 Flowchart of methodology for development of flood inundation maps 29 4.6 Flowchart of methodology of flood phase maps 30 4.7 Flowchart of methodology of flood effected crop 30 4.8 Flowchart of methodology of flood affected roads 31 4.9 Flowchart of methodology of flood affected population and villages 31 4.10 Flowchart of methodology of flood effected land types 32 4.11 Flowchart of methodology for recommendation of a program for improvement of public awareness for flood preparedness 33 5.1 Observed and calculated water levels by MVR model 42 5.2 Observed and calculated water levels by BPNN model 43 5.3 Hydrograph of the 1999 Flood on the Huong River at Kim Long 45 5.4 Calculated and observed water levels at Kim Long on the Huong River of the historical flood in November 1999 48 5.5 Calculated and observed water levels at Phu Oc on the Bo River of the historical flood in November 1999 48 5.6 Calculated and observed water levels at Kim Long on the Huong River of the severe flood in October 1983 49 v Figure Title Page 5.7 Calculated and observed water levels at Phu Oc on the Bo River of the severe flood in October 1983 49 5.8 Flood inundation map at alarm level I on the Huong River system 53 5.9 Flood inundation map at alarm level II on the Huong River system 54 5.10 Flood inundation map at alarm level III on the Huong River system 55 5.11 Flood inundation map at alarm level III+ on the Huong River system 56 5.12 Flooded roads in Hue City at alarm level III on the Huong River system 58 5.13 Land used risk map at alarm level III at different scenarios of Hue City 59 5.14 Flow chat of Institutional Frame Work for Disaster Mitigation in Vietnam 61 5.15 Flow chat of Disaster Warning in Vietnam 62 5.16 Sample of training materials on disaster mitigation at CCFSC 64 5.17 Sample of flood hazard map 65 5.18 Sample of flood preparedness and mitigation poster which is available at CCFSC and VRC 66 5.19 Sample of training materials for school children which are available at CCFSC, UNDP, and VRC 69 5.20 Sample of training materials for school children which are available at CCFSC, UNDP, and VRC 69 vi List of Tables Table 1.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.15 5.16 Title Page The form characteristic of the Huong River basin Hydro-meteorological data GIS data Remote sensing data Statistical data of some rains caused by Northeast winds in the Thua Thien Hue Province Statistical data of some rains caused by tropical low pressures and storms in the Thua Thien Hue Province Possible occurrence of yearly peak discharge in months (1977 – 1999) Flood transmission time from Thuong Nhat to Kim Long Correlation matrix of independencies Summary of the linear –models Verification results of models Verification results of models Official flood alarm levels used in Vietnam Selected flood inundation scenarios in the Thua Thien Hue Province Selected flood inundation scenarios in the Thua Thien Hue Province Calculation results of flood inundation area in flood scenario Summary of inundation status during the historical flood (Nov 1999) Estimated costs for Training of officials in charge of disaster preparedness and mitigation at provincial, district, and commune levels Estimated costs for events or grass-root training on flood awareness and mitigation for local people (commune level) Estimated cost for training of school children in primary schools vii 23 26 26 34 34 35 36 39 39 41 43 45 46 51 57 63 67 68 70 CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 General Introduction Natural disasters and floods are natural events occurring annually in central Vietnam It is not economically viable to protect against all the effects of the maximum possible flood for any given river basin Further, physical works to contain or reduce floods may result in adverse consequences elsewhere A realistic balance must be obtained between protecting life, property, and infrastructure from floods of a selected probability; and making adequate provision for evacuation and other emergency measures to cope with the effects of floods of greater magnitude The recommended approach should be a combination of non-structural and structural flood control and flood damage protection In the Central Part of Vietnam, due to the fact that the information available to provincial and local authorities and the community on likely flood levels and their expected time of occurrence was totally inadequate Flood forecasting and warning systems urgently need to be upgraded and an improved public awareness and information program for protection of the population against natural disasters, including storms and floods, needs to be developed and implemented immediately This study will focus on the enhancement of flood forecasting and awareness program for people in the flood prone area of Thua Thien Hue – one of the most flood affected provinces in central part of Vietnam 1.2 Description of the Study Area Thua Thien Hue Province is Located at the latitudes 16°14' - 16°15' North, longitudes 107°02' - 108°11' East, is 127 km long and 60 km wide on average, with mountains accounting for up to 70% of the natural land Geographically, Thua Thien Hue borders Quang Tri Province to the North, Da Nang City to the South, with Laos P.D.R., separated by the Truong Son range, to the West, and over 120 km of seacoast to the East Thua Thien Hue Province covers a natural area of 5,009 sq.km, and has a population of 1,050,000 in 1999 (The administrative map of the Thua Thien Hue Province is in Figure 1.1) Thua Thien Hue lies in the tropical monsoon zone influenced by the convergent climate of the subtropical North and the tropical South There are two distinct seasons: the rainy season, with storms and hurricanes, lasts from September to December; and the dry season, with little rain, lasts from January to August Floods and Storms are the main disasters in the Thua Thien Hue Province (causes of disaster in the Thua Thien Hue Province is briefly described in Figure 1.2) 1.3 Description of the Huong River The Huong River is the greatest river of the Thua Thien Hue Province and located from 16o00’ to 16o45’ of the north latitude and from 107o00’ to 108o15’ of the east longitude, its west is the Truong Son mountains, its north is Bach Ma mountains, its south is contiguous to the Da Nang city and its east is Eastern sea The Huong River has a basin area of 2,830 km2 that representing 56% of total area of Thua Thien Hue province and playing an important role on water resource as well as the inundation status of the province Over than 80% of this basin area is hills and mountains with their heights from 200 to 1,708 m A 5% of the basin area is the coastal dunes with altitude from – m to 20 – 30 m; the remainder area is 3,700 which can be cultivatable Main flow of the Huong River originates from a high mountain area of the Bach Ma range where is from 900 to 1,200 m of altitude From its origin to the Tuan cross river, the main flow is called as the Ta Trach and from the Tuan cross river, it is called as the Huong River (or the Perfume River), the river that expresses many bold romantic feature on life, culture and natural landscape of the Hue ancient capital The form characteristic of the Huong River system and its great branches is shown in the table below: Table 1.1 The form characteristic of the Huong River basin Name of river or branches River class Huong Main Hai Nhut I ravine CaRum I BaRan Co Moc I ravine Huu Trach I Bo I Dai Giang Tributary Length Basin Ave (km) area height of (km2) basin (m) River bed incline (%) Ave width of basin (km) 44.6 104 15 2830 75.3 330 4.8 10.6 29 219.3 458 62.3 18 88.3 51 94 27 729 938 River Curve network coefficient density (km/km2) 0.6 1.65 11.3 0.58 1.45 1.30 326 384 3.7 9.5 14.6 12.7 0.64 0.64 1.51 1.85 The Huong River water converges in the Tam Giang - Cau Hai lagoon that its length is of 67 km, average width is of 2.2km and its depth changes from 5m, and then goes to the sea through mainly the Thuan An and Tu Hien estuaries 1.4 Problems and Need of Study The floods in November and in December 1999 in the central part of Vietnam clearly underlined the vulnerability of this part of the country to natural disasters While floods occur every year, those in 1999 were of a particularly severe nature and the extent of injury and damage was extremely widespread The government at central and local levels took immediate action during and after the floods to assist the local communities to cope with the crisis and to help restore food supplies, essential services, and essential infrastructure Further more, An Integrated Natural Disaster Mitigation Policy for Central Vietnam has been prepared which involves both structural and non-structural measures However, the non-structural measures are more concentrated and preferable because of the current condition of fund limitation in Vietnam In these non-structure measures, improvement of flood forecasting and enhancement of public awareness on disaster preparedness and mitigation are those of highest priority Therefore, this study is From H11 I1 0.408 I2 -0.366 I3 -0.390 I4 0.357 I5 -0.479 bias 0.112 H21 0.010 H22 0.412 H23 0.184 H24 -0.004 H25 0.499 bias H12 -0.171 0.081 -0.276 0.348 -0.084 0.378 -0.328 0.094 -0.438 -0.187 0.029 H13 -0.085 0.376 -0.455 0.089 -0.407 0.374 0.166 -0.174 -0.076 0.140 0.237 H14 0.206 -0.018 0.493 -0.040 0.393 -0.050 0.359 0.290 -0.474 0.474 -0.062 H15 0.458 0.151 0.021 0.191 -0.047 0.058 0.300 0.448 0.434 0.467 0.081 To H16 H17 0.490 0.302 0.008 -0.155 -0.180 -0.091 -0.463 -0.251 -0.419 0.227 0.087 0.222 0.481 -0.260 -0.146 -0.107 -0.340 -0.036 0.070 -0.473 0.065 -0.134 H18 -0.089 -0.301 -0.278 0.230 0.366 0.225 0.295 -0.333 0.002 -0.195 -0.040 H19 0.425 -0.050 0.488 0.478 0.267 0.322 0.414 0.496 0.231 -0.038 -0.129 H10 0.303 -0.482 -0.158 -0.408 -0.238 -0.171 0.478 0.145 -0.209 0.140 0.090 bias O2 -0.151 -0.095 -0.432 -0.011 0.204 -0.178 Weights and biases for hour ahead water level forecasting at Kim Long – Case 92 APPENDIX I Calibration and verification results of the HEC-HMS model for each basin II Recommended specifications for upgrading of the current gauging network the Huong River system 93 I Calibration and verification results of the HEC-HMS model for Duong Hoa, Binh Dien, and Co Bi basins to calculate un-observed inflow at upstream boundary and lateral inflows Collected information on these basins for setup, calibration and verification of the HECHMS model is as follows: Name of basin Location Control area (Km2) Runoff data Rainfall data Duong Hoa Ta Trach river 680 Q,H (hourly) 1986.1987 Nam Dong (hourly) Thuong Nhat (daily) (1981.1999) Binh Dien Huu Trach river 570 Q, H (hourly) 1979.1985 A luoi (hourly) (1977.1999) Co Bi Bo river 720 Q, H (hourly) 1979.1985 A luoi (hourly 1977.1999), Co bi (daily 1979.1999), Ta luong (daily 1981.1999) From the collected data, several floods occurred in the recent years are selected for each basin for calibration, verification of HEC-HMS model as bellows: Basin Flood No Time of occurrence Duong Hoa 3 0h 7/11 to 24h 13/11/1987 0h 19/11 to 24h 23/11/1987 0h 25/11 to 24h 28/11/1987 0h 13/10 to 24h 14/10/1984 0h 1/11 to 24h 5/11/1984 0h 15/10 to 24h 19/10/1985 0h 29/11 to 24h 6/12/1985 0h 13/10 to 13h 17/10/1984 13h 1/11 to 13h 6/11/1984 0h 29/11 to 24h 6/12/1985 Binh Dien Co Bi Hourly rainfall, runoff data are prepared and input in to the Basin and Meteorologic models of HEC-HMS The HEC-HMS is calibrated for each flood in each basin to find the best suitable parameters for each flood, and then set of parameters for the basin are selected by averaging parameters of calibrated floods Evaluation criteria for the calibration are the different in peak and time between calculated and observed discharges which are available in the HEC-HMS software However, the Efficiency Index (EI) is also calculated for evaluation The parameters for basin are again verified in each flood and minor adjustment is done to ensure that these parameters are the most suitable parameters for the basin Results of calculation are presented in Appendix III of this report Table below is a summary of the calibration and verification results of the HEC-HMS model for each catchment: 94 Binh Dien basin Flood No Initial lost (mm) Basin parameters 10 10 10 10 Constant Snyder Snyder Initial Recession Threshold EI rate lag Tp peaking Q constant Q (m3/s) (%) (mm) (hour) coefficient (m3/s) Cp 2.55 0.375 58 0.40 400 92 2.45 0.355 58 0.45 500 84 3.15 0.375 58 0.45 250 93 2.55 0.375 58 0.40 400 Basin parameter is used for all floods 92 80 88 Duong Hoa basin Flood No Initial lost (mm) Basin parameters 10 10 10 10 Constant Snyder Snyder Initial Recession Threshold EI rate lag Tp peaking Q constant Q (m3/s) (%) (mm) (hour) coefficient (m3/s) Cp 3.95 0.23 50 0.6 250 91 5.6 0.59 70 0.75 250 93 4.7 0.59 60 0.70 250 92 3.95 0.23 50 0.60 250 Basin parameter is used for all floods 91 83 90 Co Bi basin Flood No Initial lost (mm) Basin parameters 20 20 20 20 Initial Recession Threshold EI Constant Snyder Snyder Q constant Q (m3/s) (%) rate lag Tp peaking (mm) (hour) coefficient (m3/s) Cp 6.75 0.85 40 0.65 650 94 6.75 0.69 40 0.55 1100 95 6.20 0.49 40 0.70 800 90 6.50 0.85 40 0.65 800 Basin parameter is used for all floods 94 91 87 95 Hydrographs of observed and calculated discharges for each flood at Binh Dien (Huu Trach river) Hydrographs of observed and calculated discharges for all floods using the same parameters at Binh Dien (Huu Trach river) 96 Hydrographs of observed and calculated discharges for all floods using the same parameters at Co Bi (Bo river) Hydrographs of observed and calculated discharges for each flood at Co Bi (Bo river) 97 Hydrographs of observed and calculated discharges for all floods using the same parameters at Duong Hoa (Ta Trach river) Hydrographs of observed and calculated discharges for each flood at Duong Hoa (Ta Trach river) 98 II Recommended specifications for upgrading of the gauging station network in the Huong River system basin A field visit was implemented to current gauging stations in the Huong River system basin The purpose of this field visit is to survey the location of gauging stations on the Huong River, the Bo River, the Ta Trach river and the Huu Trach river and to investigate site assess and communication capabilities at the location of gauging stations Summary report on current status of these stations is in Appendix of this report Upon on reviewing some document of implemented automate gauging stations as well as NOAA Automate Local Flood Waring System Handbook, it is found out that building a near real time flood warning system requires enough data in real-time basis; therefore the gauging stations network of the Huong River system basin has to meet the following requirements: • Having enough rainfall gauging stations which are distribute uniformly in the basin According the Local Flood Warning Handbook of NOAA, for the area of 2830 km2, number of rainfall gauging stations should be at least • Having at least stations which measure H, Q at upstream of rivers: Ta Trach, Huu Trach, and Bo to provide flooding information in the upstream • Having at least stations which measure H, Q at downstream to provide information for flood forecasting in the downstream area • Having at least station which measure H at Thuan An estuarine to provide information on sea water level • All gauging stations must be automated with reliable communication with the base station in Hue City In term of rainfall gauging station: There are rainfall gauging stations in the basin which measure rainfall since 1973 to now: Hue, Nam Dong, A Luoi, Kim Long, Ta Luong, Phu Oc and Thuong Nhat; of which only stations: Nam dong, Hue, A Luoi can provide hourly rainfall data; Ta Luong Stations is used only in the flood seasons There are also other rainfall stations but are used for different purpose and are not operational any more: Loc Tri, Binh Dien, Co Bi, Truoi Theoretically, the number of rain gages installed in a local flood warning system directly affects its performance Generally, the more gages, the better the chances of detecting flood.producing rainfall Extensive studies have been made at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, the NWS, and others, on the spatial variability of precipitation and the number of rain gages needed to predict flood crests The following list suggests the minimum number of gages per river basin area (in square km) Number of Rain Gages River Basin Area (square km) < 104 260 1036 2600 99 Number of rainfall stations in the Huong River system is considered to be almost enough Therefore, more rainfall stations: Binh Dien and Co Bi need to be put in operation and also, all rainfall stations need to be improved with automate instrument with reliable communication with the base station in Hue to provide hourly rainfall data for flood forecasting and warning The recommended specification for rainfall stations is in table 5.5 In term of hydrology stations: There are only stations which measure water levels since 1973 to now: Thuong Nhat, Kim Long, Phu Oc; of which only Thuong nhat measures Q Other stations such as Duong Hoa, Binh Dien , Nguyet Bieu, Co Bi, Huong Phu, Ca Cut, Cong Quan measure water level and discharge but for different purpose and only have data in split period Stream gages provide information about the current state of the stream In small watersheds, typical of those associated with local flood warning systems, stream flow observations are used to calibrate watershed models, verify forecasts from models, or trigger alarms when flooding is impending or occurring The location of stream gages in a local flood warning systems are guided by one or both of the following factors: (1) downstream public warning requirements and (2) forecast model requirements Gages used for stage alarms should be located at key points of potential damage and at points that are far enough upstream to yield enough warning time for downstream locations Therefore, at least hydrology station: Co Bi, Binh Dien and Cat Cut need to be put in operation (Cat Cut measures sea water level) and also, all hydrology stations need to be improved with automate instrument with reliable communication with the base station in Hue to provide hourly water level and discharge for flood forecasting and warning The recommended specification for hydrology stations is in table 5.5 In term of communication: Local flood warning systems generally impose few restrictions upon communications design Consequently, communications design varies depending on the desired area of coverage and resources available for transmission equipment Currently, LFWSs exist which use VHF or UHF radio, microwave, satellite, dedicated leased telephone lines, or a combination thereof In the Huong River system basin, a combination of VHF radio and telephone lines is recommended An investigation of communication taken by the Motorola Company at each site of the gauging stations in Hue showed that the VHF radio is the most suitable and also VHF frequencies are allowable to use for flood warning system (not UHF) The recommended specification for communication instrument is in table 5.5 100 In term of Base Station: A base station is a final destination in the local flood warning system communications network Data directly from sensors or repeaters, telephone lines, etc., are received by appropriate interface equipment and transmitted to the base station computer The computer accepts observation reports, processes and validates information, displays it as required by the users Table 1: Recommended specification for the local flood warning system in the Huong River system basin of Thua Thien Hue Province Rain gauge station with solar power supply: (8 stations: Hue, Nam Dong, A Luoi, Ta Luong, Kim Long, Phu Oc, Thuong Nhat, Binh Dien) No Items Rain sensor - Type: - Accuracy: - Output: - Range: Dataloger - Number of channels: - Accuracy: - Storage capacity: - Telecommunications: Features Quantity set Tipping bucket 200 mm dia 2% @ 100mm/hour Reed switch 12 VA capacity up to 500 mm Programmable dataloger for measuring sensors and storing data Data can be stored in the user’s choice of engineering units Sensor measurements are typically processed and stored as hourly and daily arrays The dataloger should support meteorological applications including SCADA/Modbus, Flood warning/Alert +/ 0.1% Up to million data points Multidrop (coaxial cable), short-haul modems, radios (UHF, VHF, spread spectrum), telephones (including cellular) and satellite transmitters set RF modem Supporting VHF radio with frequencies from 146 to 174 MHz The RF modem should compatible with the above dataloger set VHF Radio 146 to 174 MHz set Antenna system and power supply - Antenna Cable - Yagi Antenna - Coax Lightning LMR400, 25 m , N male connectors 9.10 dBd gain, rugged and heavy duty DC blocked gas tube, 50.700MHz for set set set 101 No Items arrester - Surge protector - Power supply - Outdoor Enclosure - Mounting hardware - Tower/pole - Grounding kit Features coax for rain sensor if required 24 AH sealed lead acid rechargeable battery, 20W solar panel with regulator Fiberglass NEMA 4X or 6P with suitable size 10 m high self standing with lightning rod Quantity set set set set set set Hydro Station with solar power supply (Table 1- continues) (5 stations:Thuong Nhat, Kim Long, Phu Oc, Binh Dien, Co Bi, Ca cut) No Items Water level sensor -Type: - Accuracy: - Output: - Range: Dataloger - Number of channels: - Accuracy: - Storage capacity: - Telecommunications RF modem VHF Radio Antenna system - Antenna Cable - Yagi Antenna - Coax Lightning arrester - Surge protector - Power supply - Outdoor Enclosure Features Submersible Pressure Transducers 0.1% FSO BFSL 0.100 mV 0.15 m Programmable dataloger for measuring sensors and storing data Data can be stored in the user’s choice of engineering units Sensor measurements are typically processed and stored as hourly and daily arrays The Dataloger should support meteorological applications including SCADA/Modbus, Flood warning/Alert +/ 0.1% Up to million data points Multidrop (coaxial cable), short-haul modems, radios (UHF, VHF, spread spectrum), telephones (including cellular) and satellite transmitters Supporting VHF radio with frequencies from 146 to 174 MHz The RF modem should compatible with the above dataloger 146 to 174 MHz Quantity set 3set set 3set LMR400, 25 m , N male connectors 9.10 dBd gain, rugged and heavy duty DC blocked gas tube, 50.700MHz for coax set set set for rain sensor if required 24 AH sealed lead acid rechargeable battery, 20W solar panel with regulator Fiberglass NEMA 4X or 6P with suitable set set 102 set size - Mounting hardware - Tower/pole - Grounding kit 10 m high self standing with lightning rod set set set Note: Data logger, RF modem, VHF radio, antenna system only need set because, Thuong Nhat, Kim Long, Phu Oc are already specified with rainfall instruments Hue Base and Central station with AC power supply No Items RF Base Station VHF Radio Antenna system - Antenna Cable - Yagi Antenna - Coax Lightning arrester - Surge protector - Power supply Features Quantity set Frequency 146 to 174 MHz set LMR400, 25 m , N male connectors 9.10 dBd gain, rugged and heavy duty DC blocked gas tube, 50.700MHz for coax set set set for rain sensor if required AH sealed lead acid rechargeable battery, 230 VAC battery charger with surge protection Fiberglass NEMA 4X or 6P with suitable size set set - Outdoor Enclosure - Mounting hardware - Tower/pole 10 m high self standing with lightning rod - Grounding kit set set set set Server set Printer Power supply PC Pentium IV 2.4 GHz minimum; 256 MB RAM, AGP 64MB display card; 17” Monitor; 80G HDD 7200 RPM; CD.RW 52R/40W/16RW IDE int.; ethernet card 10/100baseT PCI RJ45, 56k internal modem LaserJet A4 size On-line UPS for one hour operation with built-in surge protection Software Data logger support and network controller software Real Time Data Monitor (RTDM) software set 103 set set set REFERENCES Abrahart, Robert J., Linda See, and Pauline E Kneale (1997) New Tools for Neuron Hydrologists: Using 'network pruning' and 'model breeding' Algorithms to Discover Optimum Inputs and Architectures Available online: 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Runoff data 34 34 35 5.2 Flood forecasting model for downstream area 5.2.1 Approach for flood forecasting: 5.2.2 Selection of suitable forecasting time 5.2.3 Selection of the best model for flood. .. Flowchart of methodology of flood phase maps 30 4.7 Flowchart of methodology of flood effected crop 30 4.8 Flowchart of methodology of flood affected roads 31 4.9 Flowchart of methodology of flood. .. make forecast for the next hours (for example we use information from 1:00 to make forecast for 7:00; and 2:00 to make forecast for 8:00, etc.) 5.2.3 Selection of the best model for flood forecasting