Strategy to use Official Development Assistance ( ODA) in near future in Vietnam : Luận văn ThS. Quản lý công

UPPSALA UNIVERSITÉT & VỈNU UN1VERSITY OF ECONOMICS & BDSỈNRSS *** UPPSALA UN1VERSITET M ASTER THESIS OF MPPM Strategy to use Official Development Assistance (ODA) in near íuture in Vietnam Author: Supcrvisor: Local supervisor: Class: Ho Anh Tai l)r Sven-Erik Svárd Dr Nguyen Manh Hung MPPM INTAKE Hanoi, lanuary - 2015 This th esis is d ed ica ted to niy lìittle fam ily Acknowledgem ents First I would like to thank my supervisors, Dr Sven-I rik íSvărd and Dr Nguyen Manh Hung, tor guiding and supporting me in my redactiion would like to thank all lectures and UEB staff who allowed me to acquire such knovvledge in order to finalize this thesis Then, wou!d like to thank my classmates in this niaster program, although we are not in numbers, w ho continually created a tầmiliar atmosphere and helped together to succeed together in this master program I also thank my colleges and friends in Ministry of Planning and Investment, State Bank o f Vietnam and other govemmental agencies who provided precious documents and iníbrmation during my redaction Pỉnally, I specially thank my family who alvvays supported me in this hard master program Abstract Title: Strategy to use Official Development Assistance ( ODA) in near future in Vietnam Level: Final assignment for Master Program in Public Management Author: Ho Anh Tai Supervisors: Dr Sven-Erik Svărd and Dr Nguyen Manh Hung Date when the thesis is presented: 2014 - 12 Aim: The aim o f this thesis is to study the strategy to use Offĩcial Development Assistance (O DA ) in near tuture in Vietnam, especially in attraction, management and utilization o f O D A and concessional loans ot' donors in Vietnam The thesis starts by an overview on ODA and concessional loans’ attraction, managem ent and utilization in Vietnam Then thesis continues by describing a State o f art o f O DA m anagem ent in different countries in the vvorld, in order to draw a large scale o f experiences not only successful but also un-successful (yet), in order to fínd out some lessons for Vietnam In the next section, after analyzing O DA attraction, management and utili/ation model and its actual situation in Vietnam, the thesis tries to make a comparison o f aid effectiveness between Vietnam and other countries The last section o f the thesis draws the recent strategy and orientation in ODA attraction, managcment and utilization o f the Vietnamese governm ent and then, based on the theory acquired đuring the Master program, the author tries to propose some recommendations for change in Vietnani in terms o f ODA attraction, management and utilization in the tuture Method: As the problem is in macro level, the method chosen by the author is generalist, descriptive and analysis First, the author describes the situation o f O DA management and use in Vietnam and compares ODA management effectiveness between Vietnam and other countries The comparison method is simple and based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth comparison, following some speciílc hypothesis The data is collecteil trom proposals are already available but some are found out by the author, following personal experiences and observations Recommendations proposed in the thesis are based on theoretical knovvleđge from the Master program and the mind-map method, according to the tìve steps o f ODA management model in Vietnam Result & Conclusions: The relevant results o f the thesis are: systemization o f ODA management model and actual situation in Vietnam; description and comparison o f ODA management effectiveness betvveen Vietnam and other countries; proposition of speciíìc recommendations in parallels with govem m ent's orientation in terms o f ODA attraction, managem ent and utilization in the future The thesis concludes that in the past tvventy years, ODA attraction, management and utilization have been practiced in good way and helped Vietnam achieve many successes in its development way However, with new challenges when Vietnam has become a lovv middle income country, its strategy has to adapt to new requirements and management standards Based on that, some recom mendations in terms of: orientation; creating prọịect documents; administrative procedures; managing and implementing prọịects; m onitoring and e valuating prọịect will need to be applied in order to improve ODA management effectiveness in Vietnam Suggestions for future research: In the restricted context o f this thesis, beyond achieved results, other purposes have not been protbundly studied First, international experiences and model have not been closely analyzed, some conclusions are still generalist Then, effectiveness comparison effectiveness between different was basic and didn’t allow comparing management models In other sides, recommendations vvere proposed to improve each step in actual management model, not to change the model itself in Vietnam So, the thesis can be subject for lìiture researches toy analyzing international ODA management models and compare to Vietnannese model in order to tìnd out or draw an effective ODA management model Tlnen, based on this optimal model, the research wi 11 propose recommendations to change ODA management model in Vietnam Contribution of the thesis: Contributions o f the thesis: Systematizing ODA attraction, management and utilization model in Vietnam; reviexving widely intemational experiences in ODA attraction, management and utilization; proposing a comparison o f ODA management eíTectiveness using GDP grovvth pertormance; proposing recommendations for change in order to improve ODA attraction, management and utilization, in parallel with the governm ent's orientation Key words: Vietnam, ODA, management, effectiveness, recommendations for change concessional loans, Table o f contents Acknowledgements A bstract Table o f contents Abhreviations Tables and íìgures Chapter I: Theoretical basics on the subject 1.1 Overvievv on the th e s is 1.1.1 Necessity to study the s u b je c t 1.1.2 Research question 10 1.1.3 Research m e th o d 11 1.2 Overvievv o f ODA and concessional lo a n s 12 1.2.1 Dìnition o f ODA and concessional ioans 12 1.2.2 Forms o f O D A 13 1.2.3 Characteristics o f O D A 13 1.3 Attraction, management and utilization o f O D A 14 1.3.1 Obịectives and requirem cnts 14 1.3.2 Management o t'( ) í) A 15 Chapter II: International experiences in ODA management 18 2.1 Philippines 18 2.2 Malaysia 20 2.3 C hina 11 2.4 Experiences from other countries 23 2.5 Lessons for V ietnam 25 Chapter III: Current status o f ODA management in Vietnam 26 3.1 Overvievv o f ODA management in V ietnam 26 3.1.1 Process o f ODA management in V ietnam 26 3.1.2 R e su lto fO D A m anagem ent 27 3.2 State o f ODA management at p resen t 28 3.2.1 Procedures o fO D A m anagem ent 28 3.2.2 Achievements on ODA m anagem ent .30 3.2.3 Shortcomings and existing limitations 30 3.2.4 Changes in co-operation and development relationship .34 Chapter IV: Comparison o f aid effectiveness 36 4.1 Comparison method 36 4.2 GDP growth stages to industrialization 37 4.3 Comparison o f GDP grovvth at the tìrst development period 38 4.4 Comparison o f GDP groxvth at the next deveỉopment period 39 Chapter V: Recommendations for change in V ietnam 42 5.1 Vietnam’s orientation in ODA managem ent 42 5.1.1 Orientations for íund-based u s e .42 5.1.2 Orientations for donor-based u s e 42 5.1.3 Orientations for ODA use in priority areas 43 5.1.4 Solutions to improve etììciency o f ODA management 43 5.2 Recommendations for changes 45 5.2.1 Changes in ODA management orientation 45 5.2.2 Changes in creating project documents 45 5.2.3 Changes in administrative procedures 46 5.2.4 Changes in implementing projects 46 5.2.5 Changes in monitoring and evaluating p ro ject 47 Conclussions 48 Reterences 49 Abbreviations ADB Asia Development Bank CG Consultative Group on donors for Vietnam Conterence FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product M&E Monitoring and Evaluation ODA Offícial Development Assistance VDPF Vietnam Development Partnership Forum WB The World Bank WTO World Trade Organization Tables and íigures Tables Table 1: O DA loans and grants to the Philippines on yearly hasis 19 Table 2: Poreign debt o f Malaysia as a share o f G D P 20 Figures Figure 1: O DA com m itm ent, conclusion and disbursement, 1993 — 2 27 Pigure 2: Process o f m anagem ent and use o f O DA in Vietnam 29 Figure 3: Stages to Industrialization 38 Figure 4: G D P per capita in 25 lìrst years o f development period 39 Pigure 5: C3DP per capita in next 25 years o f development period 40 37 With speciíic hypothesis and conditions as considered above, we assume that aid effectiveness can be relatively compared through GDP grovvth cotnparison O f cause, G D P growth depends on many, many other important íầctors than ODA aid For this thesis, we really simpliíy the model in order to allovv a comprehensive method to compare aid effectiveness bet\veen countries For í'ollowing sections, vve analyze different stages o f GDP grovvth in the long road to industrialization that a country has to face to Then, we compare GDP grovvth o f different countries and the position o f each country in industrialization road 4.2 G D P grovvth stages to industrỉalization A country willing to reach industrialization status generally has to pass through a long road o f five stages A country which has gone through a war, political turmoil, socialist planning, or severe economic mism anagement is usually specitìed as a lowmiddle income country, characterized by a ỉragile economic structure Ít heavily relies on extractive resources, monoculture export, subsistence agriculture, or foreign aid These countries are considered at stage one on a road to industrialization After that, country’s economic take-olT starts with the arrival o f FDI, ODA in light and low technology industry ỉf that country can absorb that investment, it will access to stage two o f industrialization vvith low-middle income where the manufacturing is dcveloped and under toreign control and guidance Vietnam is no\v specitìcally in this stage The next stage that each country has to reach is specified as high-middle income In this stage, with FD1 investment, domestic production increases Domestic industry becomes productive and more competitive but still under foreign guidance Thailand and Malaysia have already reacheđ this stage The next challenge for that counlry is to succeed to internalize skills and knowledge, and local enterprises can replace íoreigners in all areas o f production The country emerges as a dynamic exporter o f high-quality manuíầctured products and then access to stage four, as a high income country Korea and Taiwan are such entities 38 The íìnal stage o f development is vvhen a country acquires full capabilily to create products and lead global market trends Japan, The us and some EU members already reach that stage Pigure 3: Stages to lndustrialization STAGE TW O S irrp l# iP ơoStry u n d « r f o r t ijn S7AGE ONE J L iđ » r c « m o p o a ltu re S^bbStcncy arđ đ e p « rđ a rry LGW income vietnam Low -midde income High midde income Highincome Development process o f a country should necessarily pass through these tìve stages When comparing GDP grovvth, we also include development trends, corresponding to the tìve-stage industrialization road 4.3 Comparison o f GDP grovvth at thc íìrst development period We lìrstly use comparison method above detìncd in order to compare GDP per capita growth o f Korea, Malaysia, China, Philippines and Vietnam in the íìrst period o f development process Generally, one country starling to access to industrialization process needs about 15 to 25 years to access from a lo\v income country to low-middle income country With base year dìned for each country, we compare GDP grovvth o f different countries in first 25 years o f development Figure shows that result We remark a rapid and continued development o f Korea during tlrst 25 years, leading Korea from a poor, underdeveloped country to a middle income country At the end o f these 25 years, Korea mostly access to a high-income country For Malaysia, we remark a rapid grovvth at the beginning but decreases years aíter years After that period, Malaysia stays in high rank comparing to other countries 39 Figure 4: G DP per capita in 25 iìrst years o f development period GDP per capita Years from base year of grow th acceleration Sources: The World Bank, 2014 For China, developm ent is rather slow at the beginning but starts to speed up later This can be justified by the íầct that China possesses a huge economic system and the one-party political regime conduct to the diíTiculty to change at the beginning For Philippines, lo\v grovvth speed during long period o f 25 years lead to a fact that Philippines rest in a had position o f lovv-middle income group For Vietnam, we rem ark that after 25 years o f renovation, Vietnam has converted from a poor country into a lovv-middle country Comparing to other countries, Vietnam rests in the middle rank o f development speed aíter 25 first years o f renovation In conclusion, developm ent speed o f Vietnam is suitable comparing to other countries over the vvorld 4.4 Comparison o f GDP growth at the next development period We remark that íor 25 fírst years, development speed o f Vietnam corresponds to its o f other countries in general It is a very encouraging result íor Vietnain and developm ent partners But, the question posed is what happens for the next period? 40 To ansvver that question, as many o f these countries already pass the second pcriod o f 25 years o f development, it’s easier to compare and so orient a development scenario for Vietnam As Vietnam developed with an average annual GDP grovvth o f about 8,5% during 1990-1997 period, 7,5% during 2000-2008 period and about 6% during last years, we consider two scenarios for Vietnam during next development period: annual GDP grovvth o f 5% and 9% and the development tbrecast is until 2040 The next tìgure shows us the results Figure 5: GDP per capita in next 25 years o f development period GDP per capita 30000 ■ Korea *Malaysia ■China ■Philippines Vietnam - 5% Vietnam - 9% Years from base year of growth acceleration Sources: The World Bank, 2014 We remark that Korea has achieved miraculous development results In 50 years, from a poor and underdeveloped country, Korea has become one economy in the most developed groups K.orea’s development is a Symbol for other couníries to follow Malaysia, after a high speed growth at the beginning, has faced to a long period o f stagnancy due to many structural internal problems Malaysia is novvadays a high-middle income country Being conscious o f the problem, since 2010, Malaysian govemment has launched an overall reform to re-launch the national economy, including new ODA management and use’s model and process 41 For China, aíter low start at the beginning, China has a miraculous growth during long period o f 15 years from 1997 to 2012 with a GDP grovvth o f more than 10% China is one the vvay to avoid middle income trap to become a high income country with a solid economic and political model For Philippines, 50 years o f development has lead Philippines to a Middle income trap with many intemal problem such as policy, macro-economic, technical issues and corruption For Vietnam, it has just entered to the second period o f development In that context, this second period wi 11 be vital for Vietnam to define a way to its future becoming Two developm ent scenarios until 2040 are possible If Vietnam maintains a high grovvth rate o f 9% a year, Vietnam can avoid middle income trap If Vietnam ju st achieve a growth rate o f 5% a year, Vietnam wi 11 unavoidably stay in the miđdle income group in 2040 Maintaining a high growth rate vvith management and technology transíer, while ensuring social equity is a very tough mission for Vietnamese people That requires the etTorts o f political system, Government management and all Vietnamese pcople In the tìeld o f ODA m anagem ent and use, vviíh many shortcomings and limitations, change in this tìeld is necessary in order to improve effectiveness o fO D A m anagem ent and use 42 Chapter V: Recommendatỉons for changc in Vietnam 5.1 VietnanTs oricnỉation in ODA nianagemcnt Changes in development cooperation between Vietnam and the donors as well as V ietn an rs internal stroníỉ, economy grovvth requires fundamental changes in the attraction, management and use o f ODA and concessional loans In 2012, Vietnamese govemment has adjusted these orientations as follows: 5.1.1 Orientations for fund-based use A tlexible approach to make the best use o f ODA loans vvith preíerential conditions is needed in mobilizing ODA and concessional loans, particularly in the 2011-2015 period: - Non-refundable ODA is preterred in supporting poverty reduction, social sectors (health, education, etc.), institutional and human resources development, Science, engineering, knowledge and technology transfer, etc - ODA loans are mainly used to ensure the State budget balance in order to invest in construction o f iníVastructure, social vveltầre lầcilities and non-prìt prọịects, w hich work in the tìelds eligible for expenditure items o f the State budget Deliver sub-loans from State budget for developm ent prọịects likely to recover Capital - Concessional loans are invested in nationai key programs and projects which create revenues and have repayment capacity, as povver plants, highway construction, metro stations, urban raihvays, telecommunications systems, high-tech tầcilities, etc 5.1.2 Orientations for donor-bascd use Pursuant to ODA attraction and usage in recent years, the direction tor ODA and concessional loans attraction and usage in the 2011-2020 period should íocus on big ODA and concessional loans donors, especially the 06 Development Bank Group to develop modern economic infrastructure and advanced inírastructure, to create greater momentum for promoting trade, investment, making the best use o f technical assistance and non-refundable aid from other donors (Northern Europe, Australia, Canada ), and to improve institution, capabilities, knovvledge sharing, technology transfer, support local development in health, education, environment, poverty reduction, etc 43 5.1.3 Orientations for ODA use in priority arcas In the íuture, the priorities gi ven to the use o f ODA and concessional loans should be based on the following principles: support the implementation o f the 2011-2020 Social-economic development strategy; give ỉìrst priority to ODA and concessional loans from other donors for important public investment projects; consider ODA and concessional loans as additional Capital to encourage private sector investment, promote Public-private partnership model (PPP); invest in production development to promote trade, job creation and local economic restructure in regions and localities According to the above principles, O DA and concessional loans are prelerred íor use in the íollovving areas [CP2013]: support building synchronized, large-scale and modem infrastructure systems; support social inírastructure development; enhance the developm ent o f human resources, especially high-quality human resources, o f Science, technology and intellectual economy; strengthen agriculture and rural development; support building legal systems and synchronized institutions for the socialist-oriented market economy; support environmental and natural resources protection, respond to climate change and green grovvth; support investment, trade and manutầcturing sector; Region-based support 5.1.4 Solutions to improve cfficicncy o f O D A management Based on the approved orientations, the Vietnamese government and line agencies have proposed various important solutions to improve efficiency in the management and use o f ODA and concessional loans: 5.1.4.1 Mechanism and policy - Ensure Decree 38 /2 13/NĐ-CP on the management and use o f ODA and concessional loans be put into practice effectively - Simplity processes and procedures o f amending; supplementing related legal documents to faci 1itate prọịects implementation - Simpliíy administrative procedures for donors, especially clearance, procurement, íìnancial management and auditing in site 44 1.4.2 Prọịect organization and management - Improve prọịect management capability; ensure good conditions relating the organization and project management capability o f investors and project management boards - Strengthen the role o f National Steering Committee on O DA and concessional loans to tackle problems in implementing prọịects - Develop medium term plans for improving protessional and stable ODA management 5.1.4.3 Preparing, executing and monitoring project - Improve project documents quality through close supervision o f the preparation process, shorten project inception through pre-implementation beíore the prọịect comes into effect - Arrange full, in-time counterpart íiinds; provide adequate compensation, site clearance and relocation to ensure timely project implementation - Maintain strict control over recruitment o f consultants, contractors, allowing alternative contractors vvithout re-bidding - Implement m easures to accelerate the proịect progress, increase disbursement rate, resolve problems in the implementation process - Ensure etĩective monitoring and evaluatimi, proịects 5.1.4.4 Publicity, iníbrmation transparency, and aid effectiveness im pro vem ent - Strengthening cooperation with donors, improving dialogue quality hetvveen the Government and donors, enhancing the role o f dialogue conterences such as Development partnership forum, Aid effectiveness íbrum - Publicize preíerential sectors, areas and conditions for providing ODA and concessional loans - Build a complete statistics system on ODA and concessional loans; provide updated iníbrm ation on the m edia Communications 45 5.2 Recommendations for changes Nevv orientations in attracting, managing and using ODA and concessional loans and solutions in different areas o f Vietnamese government in recent years have taken initial effect, reílected in high signing value and encouraging disbursement rate To improve the efficiency o f ODA, in addition to actively implement the above measures, structural changes are required in the management and use o f ODA and concessional loans, as in the following areas: 5.2.1 Changes in ODA management orientation - More specitìc orientations to attract ODA and concessional loans in priority areas will ensure the íeasibility o f the lìinding sources in meeting Capital requirements For major donors, more speciíìc and medium-term strategies to attract ODA and concessional loans are required For small donors, more íeasible orientations are required, vvith priority in establishing donor groups with the same criteria to create greater sponsor value and increase the elTiciency o f Capital use - As there are overlaps between donors, ODA funds and other sources o f investment, more effective public investment control mechanisms are required, which deỉìne ODA as one of public investment assistance funds In particular, the donor-based approach can be replaced by sector-based approach through a govcrnment To meet the above requirements, the coordinating role o f Ministry o f Planning and Investment needs to be enhanccd - ODA attraction orientation must be associated with State íìoreign debt control through a monitoring mechanism, strict risk management, cnsure dcbt satety through íoreign debt limit policies Strengthen assessment tor re-lending 5.2.2 Changes in creating project documcnts - Enhance Vietnam’s active role in choosing and building projects in line vvith the country's development orientation Enhance intbrmation transparency in the projects selection, ensuring íầimess and transparency - Improve project docum ents quality, including associating project design vvith building m o n it o r and evaluation intem ational Standard f m e w o r k in o r der to improve monitoring eftìciency according to planned objectives 46 - Enhance estimate value evaluation quality through independent assessment agencies - Strengthen coordination in developing inter-sector project through investment control agency to minimize overlap In terms o f comprehensive reform, this task can be assigned to a public investment management agency, in which ODA is coordinated as one o f government development investments 5.2.3 Changes in administrative procedures - Amend and supplement Decree No 38/2013/ND-CP, simpliíy adm inistrative procedures, enhance responsibi 1ities o f each agency in every stage o f itnplementing ODA investments process, minimizing unnecessary procedures for ODA - Promote State administration, harmonize administrative procedures of Vietnamese laws and donors’ regulations, and otTer speciíic solutions to resolve dilTerences through agreements vvith donors - Promote public inlbrmation and data on ODA and concessional loans Promote administrative procedures reíbrm, creating tầvorable legal framework to encourage the participation o f the private sector and socialized capitals 5.2.4 Changes in iniplementing projects - Specific guidelines are required in the establishment, building models and criteria for Prọịect management boards Limit the establishment o f new project management boards, prioritizing existing boards and experienced staffs - At ministerial and provincial level, uniíled prọịect management mechanisms and ODA and concession loans managerial staff training are required to gradually develop proíessional and experienced prọịect manager teams - Specify responsibilities o f relevant authorities, giving more power to implementing prọịect agencies in solving problems in the implementation process 47 5.2.5 Changes in monitoring and evaluating project - Monitor and evaluate projects based on modem models Follow the process ot' monitoring and evaluation closely with planned objectives, indicators during the prọịect preparation - Improving the monitoring and evaluating process through independent and proíessional agencies - Provide sufficient budget for monitoring and evaluating projects Assign responsibility to agencies and individuals for project quality after completion o f the project 48 Conclusions This master thesis is proposed in order to evaluate, and then improve effectiveness in attracting, managing and using ODA and concessional loans o f donors in Vietnam during last 20 years Atter construction theoretical framework about ODA and concessional loans, this study íbcused on analyzing experiences o f different couníries in the vvorld in this area, especially who had similar economic conditions and development period as Vietnam From these models, successful or not, some main lessons were summarized for Vietnam Based on the analyze o f actual situation and model in Vietnam, this study pointed out achievements but also limits o f Vietnam in attracting, managing and using ODA and concessional loans o f donors Then, a comparison o f effectiveness betvveen Vietnam and other countries has been made This vvas a very basic comparison tollovving GDP growth comparison, based on some macro-economic hypothesis Pinally, collating international experiences and actual orientation o f the govcmment in the area, this study tries to propose some recommendations in order to improve effectiveness in attracting, managing and using ODA and concessional loans in Vietnam In the restricted context o f this thesis, beyond achieved results, other purposes have not been proíbundly studied International models have not been closely analyzed and eiTectiveness comparison was basic So, the study only compared GDP growth but did not allow comparing effectiveness o f different models In other sides, recommendations were proposed to change steps in actual model, not to change the model itself 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