Ứng dụng phương pháp thống kê trong dự báo dân số

TRUONG D~ HQC KINH T~ TP H6 CHI MINH NGUYEN SUM UNGDUNGPHUdNGPHAPTH6NGiffi TRONG DU BAO DAN SO TAl MOT DIA PmfdNG / (THANH PHO HUE: NOI vA NGOAI THANH) Chuyen nganh : THONG KE Ma s6 : 5-02-10 Lu4N AN PH6 TI~N si KHOA HQC KINH T~ Ngu6i hudng dlin k.hoa hc: Thimh ph6 GS.PTS Tntdng Van Khang D1;ti Hc Kinh T~ TP Hb Chi Minh H6 Chi Minh, nam 1994 _:, MQC LQC Trang ' LO'I , ~' NOI ? I A' N A CO' B.AN TIEU ') A' ") "" ChU'dng 1: CAC CHI 1.1 01 BAU ') "- NHAN" A,, A' 07 ~\.I DAN SO VA ccJ CAU TIIEO TUOI VA GIC1I: 1.2.1 Thap tu6i: 1.2.2 Dan sb I 08 09 trung s b1nh N A ' A • CAC CHI TIEU BIEN BQNG TIJ ~ A 10 NHIEN DAN SO · '-11 · Cac chl t i ~u 1.3.1.1 TY suit 1.3.1.2 TY suit ch6t 1.3.1.3 TY suit ch6t tre em du&i tu6i(O tu6i): muc a¢ chit ch6t 1.3.1.4 So s8nh cltc v~' A 09 1.3.2 chung muc dQ 12 12 13 c1Q mftc th6ng 1.3.2.2 eRe chi ti~u th~ th~ th6ng V~ v~ mUC sinh de 16 sinh de: 16 dQ sinh de: 17 s6 19 Tjr suit tlmg tl/ nhien: 21 H~ 1.3.2.3 1.3.4 Cac chi tieu v~ 1.3.5 11 ch6t v~ tieu ch1 m theo dQ tu6i 1.3.2.1 M¢t vai khRi ni~m 1.3.3 HOC ~ A SO VAN BE ccJ BAN CUA NHAN KHAU HQC: ~ l'to."J K:H:A.U ti~u Cac chl ' ' muc dQ k6t hon v~ N A c1Q muc 21 ly A • CAC CHI TIEU BIEN BQNG ccJ HQC Chi ti~u 1.4.1 1.4.1.1 ~ 1y bi8n dQng od hQc chung: t! ,., ,._1 SUdt chuyen den: 1.4.1.2 Ty suit chuy~n 1.4.1.3 Ty suit tang (giam) han: 22 22 23 23 di: 23 cd hoc: 23 • , m.:t , Chlidng CAC · PHlUKi PHAP ? I 1\ DAN "' ' SO it BANG· CHEf & 1\fJ 1\ 1\1 , BAO 2.1 CHINH LY SO DO KHAI SAI TUOI 2 Pm.Jo'NG PHAP DTJ BAO DAN SO BANG PHI1o'NG PHAP NGOP,.I SUY LI~U , 2.3 , 26 v' N A \ "' ? v PHUdNG PHAP D0 BAO D0A VAO TY SUAT GIA TANG , I N Y NGHIA KHOA , " "' , ? " 1\, 1\ , 2.4 PHDdNG PHAP D0 BAO DAN ? \ ? CUA , , 1'/ BANG CHET: 29 ? ? ? "' 2.4.3 CAC CHI TIEU CO BAN CUA BANG CHET: xac suit ch~t 2.4.3.2 xac suit s6ng 2.4.3.3 S6 s6ng a~n 2.4.3.4 , , ' s6 s6ng tuoi 2.4.3.5 Tu6i thQ binh quan ? 2.4.4 BANG " CHET 29 29 2.4.2 LDai DAN SO 2.4.3.1 27 27 SO D0A VAO BANG CHET ? HQC 24 tu6i \ X "' VA THE x 33 qx 33 Px 35 lx 35 Lx 37 :ex ~ 1\ 38 TH0C 39 , , , ' , CAC PHtt1NG PHAP J4P BANG CHEl' 42 c8c nhB dim s6 PhBp : Phlldng phBp Iap bAng chit Phlldng phBp I~ 2.5.3 Phlldng phap Iap b/mg chit caa Vi~n CUB bAng chit caa nhB dim s6 IK)c 42 Bftc (Bek) 43 s1 Li8n sfJ N&-vd-xen-cki & Pa-ep-ski 47 2.5.4 Phubng phap Iap bang chit cua Bu-nha-kob-xki 51 2.5.5 Bang chit rut gQn 55 /'1 /II A /'1 A"' ChU'dng 3: UNG DQNG TIR}C TE:DTJ BAO DAN SO TP HUE ( NQI '\ #d ~ I 1.1 phl)Jll nghifm vi" \ W A TIM HIEU PHAT TRIEN DAN SO /'1 , THANH PHO HUE '\ & NGO~I 59 THANH) (NQi ThBnh) 59 dtu 3.1.2 Phlfr:lng 3.1.3 Kit qua 59 3.1.4 K.it lr$1: 63 1tl ' " phBp nghien ,.') "' N 59 : cftu "' "' If' " MQT 9dN Vl DAN ClJ MAU VUNG NGO~I TIM HIEU PHAT TRIEN DAN SO T.~I \ THANH • phlpn vi & Phuttng 3.2.2 Kit qua 3.2.3 Ja(t nghi en phBp cftu TP : 80 lu&n : 84 , /'1 A I 3 DlJ bao d&n '\ /II I s6 95 TP Huti thdi gian dtin thee PhU'o'ng phap suy nge~i 97 3.3.2 DlJ bae d&n s6 3.3.3 DV bae d&n s6 dva vae suit gia tang 99 dva vae bang chtit 103 3.3.3.1 Bang chuyin tu6i Nam , NU cua NQi , Nge~i 3.3.3.2 D~ YP Huti bae tre em 0-4 t nam 1994 ; tre em 0-4t & 5-9 t 1999 3.3.3.3 Dv bae d&n s6 Huti thee Nam,Nu & NQi,ge~ 3.3.3.4 Phan tich sd bQ dan s6 Huti TAI LU~ LIJ:;U 103 109 ' 1994 & 1999 va cac nam kd tidp KET 80 80 DTJ BAO DAN SO TIIANH PHO HUE TRONG THl\ _, 1.:~;,_ p~- - - -.- - - - - j -~ - h····· I I .1 ·::· p.PHAP DU BA() THE·() · ··j j GO.~IN SUY ········· : ············· ···· ·· ············· ! 28U -t····················· ·8~(._:;-, · -· 270+ ·:·· ~ ;/ 16-55 t ( 37240 10584 (36,6%) (32,1%) (39,8% ) ( 'rY 1~ 80190 52,5% ) 9916 ( 55,7% ) 50567 ( 35,4%) (37,2% ) 6483 1591 8074 5,9%) ( 6,0% ) (5,9% ) 1~) CQng ( 39983 > 55 t 55 t 14924 3580 18504