The political economy of confict in south asia

free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com ThePol i t i calEconomyof Confli cti nSout hAs i a Mat t hewJ WebbandAl ber tWi j eweer a www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com International Political Economy Series Series Editor: Timothy M Shaw, Visiting Professor, University of Massachusetts Boston, USA and Emeritus Professor, University of London, UK The global political economy is in flux as a series of cumulative crises impacts its organization and governance The IPE series has tracked its development in both analysis and structure over the last three decades It has always had a concentration on the global South Now the South increasingly challenges the North as the centre of development, also reflected in a growing number of submissions and publications on indebted Eurozone economies in Southern Europe An indispensable resource for scholars and researchers, the series examines a variety of capitalisms and connections by focusing on emerging economies, companies and sectors, debates and policies It informs diverse policy communities as the established trans-Atlantic North declines and ‘the rest’, especially the BRICS, rise Titles include: Matthias Ebenau, Ian Bruff and Christian May (editors) STATES AND MARKETS IN HYDROCARBON SECTORS Critical and Global Perspectives Jeffrey Dayton-Johnson LATIN AMERICA’S EMERGING MIDDLE CLASSES Economic Perspectives Andrei Belyi and Kim Talus STATES AND MARKETS IN HYDROCARBON SECTORS Dries Lesage and Thijs Van de Graaf RISING POWERS AND MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS Leslie Elliott Armijo and Saori N Katada (editors) THE FINANCIAL STATECRAFT OF EMERGING POWERS Shield and Sword in Asia and Latin America Md Mizanur Rahman, Tan Tai Yong, Ahsan Ullah (editors) MIGRANT REMITTANCES IN SOUTH ASIA Social, Economic and Political Implications Bartholomew Paudyn CREDIT RATINGS AND SOVEREIGN DEBT The Political Economy of Creditworthiness through Risk and Uncertainty Lourdes Casanova and Julian Kassum THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF AN EMERGING GLOBAL POWER In Search of the Brazil Dream Toni Haastrup and Yong-Soo Eun (editors) REGIONALISING GLOBAL CRISES The Financial Crisis and New Frontiers in Regional Governance Kobena T Hanson, Cristina D’Alessandro and Francis Owusu (editors) MANAGING AFRICA’S NATURAL RESOURCES Capacities for Development free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com Daniel Daianu, Carlo D’Adda, Giorgio Basevi and Rajeesh Kumar (editors) THE EUROZONE CRISIS AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPE The Political Economy of Further Integration and Governance Karen E Young THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ENERGY, FINANCE AND SECURITY IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Between the Majilis and the Market Monique Taylor THE CHINESE STATE, OIL AND ENERGY SECURITY Benedicte Bull, Fulvio Castellacci and Yuri Kasahara BUSINESS GROUPS AND TRANSNATIONAL CAPITALISM IN CENTRAL AMERICA Economic and Political Strategies Leila Simona Talani THE ARAB SPRING IN THE GLOBAL POLITICAL ECONOMY Andreas Nölke (editor) MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS FROM EMERGING MARKETS State Capitalism 3.0 Roshen Hendrickson PROMOTING U.S INVESTMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Bhumitra Chakma SOUTH ASIA IN TRANSITION Democracy, Political Economy and Security Greig Charnock, Thomas Purcell and Ramon Ribera-Fumaz THE LIMITS TO CAPITAL IN SPAIN Crisis and Revolt in the European South International Political Economy Series Series Standing Order ISBN 978–0–333–71708–0 hardcover 978–0–333–71110–1 paperback You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address, the title of the series and one of the ISBNs quoted above Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, England www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com The Political Economy of Conflict in South Asia Edited by Matthew J Webb Assistant Professor, The Petroleum Institute, United Arab Emirates and Albert Wijeweera Senior Lecturer, Southern Cross University, Australia free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com Editorial matter, selection, introduction and conclusion © Matthew J Webb and Albert Wijeweera 2015 Individual chapters © Respective authors 2015 All rights reserved No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 First published 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 6XS Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010 Palgrave Macmillanis the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries ISBN: 978–1–137–39743–0 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com Contents List of Tables and Figures vii Acknowledgements ix Notes on Contributors x Introduction Matthew J Webb and Albert Wijeweera The Economics of Conflict in the Chittagong Hill Tract Region of Bangladesh Syed Serajul Islam The ‘Political Economy’ of Sikh Separatism: Ethnic Identity, Federalism and the Distortions of Post-Independence Agrarian Development in Punjab-India Jugdep S Chima 12 32 The Political Economy of the Ethno-nationalist Uprising in Pakistani Balochistan, 1999–2013 Farhan Hanif Siddiqi 57 Nepal’s Protracted Transition: Explaining the Continuing Political and Economic Impasse Pramod K Kantha 75 India’s Indigenization of Military Aircraft Design and Manufacturing: Towards a Fifth-Generation Fighter Michael B Charles and Elisabeth Sinnewe 93 The Political Economy of Pakistan’s ‘War on Terror’ Howard Brasted and Zahid Shahab Ahmed Terrorist Activities and Financial Market Performance: Evidence from Sri Lanka Albert Wijeweera Greed, Grievance and Violent Separatism in South Asia Matthew J Webb v 114 132 149 free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com vi Contents 10 The Himalayan Ranges, Glaciers, Lakes and Rivers: An International Ecological, Economic and Military Outlook Lavanya Vemsani 171 11 Defence, Security and the Economy in South Asian Countries Christos Kollias and Stephanos Papadamou 191 12 A Survival Analysis of the Onset of Peace in South Asia Ali C Tasiran and Zainab Kazim Ali 211 13 Conclusion Matthew J Webb and Albert Wijeweera 227 Index 231 www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com List of Tables and Figures Figures 7.1 8.1 11.1 11.2 11.3 12.1 12.2 Terrorist incidents in Pakistan 2001–2013 Cumulative death toll due to terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka 1986–2009 Total military spending in South Asia 1988–2011 Variables used to analyse military spending in South Asia Impulse response analysis for lag VAR GDPPC INFLA HCGDP MEGDP INT Non-parametric Kaplan–Meier survival functions by region Non-parametric Kaplan–Meier survival functions of the termination of Asian wars 126 137 198 202 204 218 221 Tables 4.1 6.1 6.2 7.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 Employment of Balochistan-domiciled persons in gas-producing and distribution companies Current products of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Potential Indian air power in 2025 Costs of war in Pakistan 2001–2014 Summary statistics of major variables for terrorist-related incidents in Sri Lanka 1986–2009 Test for ARCH effects in analysis of terrorist-related incidents in Sri Lanka Results of GARCH(1,1) model in analysis of terrorist-related incidents in Sri Lanka Comparative development indices for South Asian states Comparative development indices for South Asian states vis-à-vis regional averages Military manpower in South Asia 1989–2010 The defence burden in South Asia 1988–2010 Variance decomposition results used in the analysis of defence spending of South Asian states vii 70 102 107 128 142 143 144 193 194 197 199 203 free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com viii 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 List of Tables and Figures Wars by location and length Ordered spells and durations of Asian wars Distribution of Asian wars by termination type Descriptive statistics of variables for all Asian wars Cox proportional model estimates for all outcomes in the analysis of Asian wars www.ebook777.com 217 219 220 222 224 free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com Acknowledgements We would first like to acknowledge and express our gratitude to our editors at Palgrave Macmillan for their invaluable support and assistance in the production of this volume In addition, we would like to thank all of the contributing authors to this volume for their dedication and hard work; it was a privilege and a joy to be a part of this exciting project with you Special thanks are due to Christos Kollias and Jugdep S Chima who, in addition to supplying chapters for this volume, also introduced us to several other authors who kindly agreed to the same Others who assisted through their encouragement and support include Hamad Karki, Mark Hayman, Brian Bielenberg, Gwyn Rees and Stephen Levine The volume is lovingly dedicated to Sayuri, Jamie and Mia Webb, and Nandani, Chandana and Saduni Wijeweera ix free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com 224 Ali C Tasiran and Zainab Kazim Ali Table 12.5 Cox proportional model estimates for all outcomes in the analysis of Asian wars Variables coef Government Government and territorial Cumulative intensity Interstate war Internal war Internalized internal war Peace Ceasefire Victory Log(population) Log(GDP/capita) South Asian Countries 0.070 1.285 exp(coef) se(coef) z Pr(>|z|) 1.072 3.613 0.279 0.700 0.250 1.836 0.802 0.066 –0.559 0.572 0.222 –2.516 0.012* 0.692 0.012 –0.271 1.999 1.002 0.763 0.640 0.564 0.659 1.083 0.003 –0.411 0.279 0.997 0.681 –0.139 –0.834 0.461 0.084 0.325 –0.085 0.871 0.434 1.585 1.087 1.384 0.918 0.329 0.332 0.311 0.087 0.177 0.304 –0.421 –2.514 1.479 0.967 1.835 –0.281 0.673 0.012* 0.139 0.334 0.067 0.779 Sources: Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, n.d.; Ministry of Finance, 2014; Ministry of Interior, 2014; Senate of Pakistan, 2005; Shukla, 2011 ceteris paribus, the higher the risks of continuing the war and the greater the incentives for ending it To understand the impact of GDP per capita effect better, we compare South Asian states with other Asian states by looking at their respective GDP numbers Both mean and median GDP growths in other Asian states are higher than the GDP per capita levels in South Asian states, $1,638 mean ($1,428 median) and $3,054 ($1,698) respectively for the years 1946 to 2010 The calculations are based on Maddison’s data set (Maddison Project, 2013) It explains why South Asian states suffer most by wars, that is, in accordance with our findings South Asian states’ relatively lower GDP produces longer and costlier spells of conflict This finding echoes those of other studies including Jenne et al (2007) who, in an investigation of violent separatism, found that residing in a wealthy country makes a group less likely to advance extreme claims or engage in violence, partly (the authors suggest) because of the risks to the group’s comparative affluence of doing so Similarly, Elbadawi and Sambanis (2002) find that economic development and democracy are significantly and negatively associated with civil war www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com A Survival Analysis of the Onset of Peace 225 Conclusion In terms of general findings, our study indicates that, regardless of the conflict outcome, wars are longer in Asia, followed by the MiddleEast, Latin America, Africa and Europe Moreover, in Asia major wars terminate more quickly than minor ones, and wars between states are more likely to terminate than internal wars (i.e., civil wars have longer spells than wars between states) The most important factor in Asian wars is increasing GDP per capita which helps faster termination of wars It seems that better economic development will shorten conflict periods in South Asian states which have lower GDP per capita development than other Asian states; both population and economic development seem to accelerate the termination of wars in Asia Moreover, we know that both mean and median GDP growths in other Asian states are higher than the GDP per capita levels in South Asian states Hence, the positive estimate of the per capita GDP coefficient means that GDP growth in Asia shortens the termination periods of wars generally and also means that government policies aimed at accelerating economic growth in South Asia may be an effective strategy for promoting peace and stability in the region Acknowledgements We are very grateful to Matthew Webb and Albert Wijeweera, the editors of this volume, for their comments We are also grateful for helpful comments received by attendees at seminars held on 20 March 2013 at Middlesex University (London) and December 2013 at Middle East Technical University (North Cyprus) and the Third International Conference in Economics on 21 June 2013 in Eskisehir (Turkey) References Anderton, C H & Carter, J R 2011 Conflict Datasets: A Primer for Academics, Policymakers, and Practitioners Defence and Peace Economics, 22, 21–42 Bohorquez, J C., Gourley, S., Dixon, A R., Spagat, M & Johnson, N F 2009 Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency Nature, 462, 911–914 Cox, D R 1972 The Analysis of Multivariate Binary Data Applied Statistics, 21, 113–120 Cramer, C 2006 Civil War Is Not a Stupid Thing: Accounting for Violence in Developing Countries, London: Hurst & Company DeRouen, K R & Bercovitch, J 2008 Enduring Internal Rivalries: A New Framework for the Study of Civil War Journal of Peace Research, 45, 55–74 free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com 226 Ali C Tasiran and Zainab Kazim Ali Elbadawi, I & Sambanis, N 2002 How Much War Will We See? Explaining the Prevalance of Civil War Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46, 3, 307–334 Galtung, J 1990 Violence and Peace In: Smooker, P., Davies, R & Munske, B (eds) A Reader in Peace Studies Oxford: Pergamon Press Gleditsch, K S 2007 Transnational Dimensions of Civil War Journal of Peace Research, 44, 293–309 Hegre, H 2004 The Duration and Termination of Civil War Journal of Peace Research, 41, 243–252 Hindustan Aeronautics Limited n.d Products HAL website [Online] Available: http://www.hal-india.com/products.asp [Accessed 17 July 2014] Jenne, E K., Saideman, S M & Lowe, W 2007 Separatism as a Bargaining Posture: The Role of Leverage in Minority Radicalization Journal of Peace Research, 44, 539–558 Kalbfleisch, J D & Prentice, R L 2011 The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data, Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons Krustev, V L 2006 Interdependence and the Duration of Militarized Conflict Journal of Peace Research, 43, 243–260 Lancaster, F W 1956 Mathematics in Warfare In: Newman, J R (ed.) The World of Mathematics New York: Simon and Schuster Maddison Project 2013 Maddison Project Database [Online] Groningen: University of Groningen Available: http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/data.htm [Accessed 22 August 2014] Ministry of Finance 2014 Economic Survey of Pakistan 2013–14 Annexure III: Impact of War in Afghanistan and Ensuing Terrorism on Pakistan’s Economy Islamabad: Government of Pakistan Ministry of Interior 2014 National Internal Security Policy 2014–2018 Islamabad: Government of Pakistan Richardson, L F 1948 Variation of the Frequency of Fatal Quarrels with Magnitude Journal of the American Statistical Association, 43, 523–546 Richardson, L F 1960 Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, Pittsburgh, PA: Boxwood Press Senate of Pakistan 2005 Report of the Parliamentary Committee on Balochistan Islamabad Shukla, A 2011 How about a Department of Aerospace Business Standard [Online] Available: Factiva [Accessed 19 July 2014] Smith, R & Tasiran, A C 2012 The Onset of Peace The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 7, 15–21 Uppsala Conflict Data Program 2012 UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v.4–2012, 1946–2011 In: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, U U A T I P R I (ed.) Oslo Wilkinson, D O 1980 Deadly Quarrels: Lewis F Richardson and the Statistical Study of War, Berkeley: University of California Press World Bank 2012 World Development Indicators, Washington, DC: The World Bank Wright, Q 1942 A Study of War, Chicago: University of Chicago Press www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com 13 Conclusion Matthew J Webb and Albert Wijeweera The central message to emerge from the collection of essays that constitute this volume is that ethnic, political, strategic, environmental, economic and other factors – each vital to understanding the causes and trajectories of the myriad forms of conflict that exist in South Asia – cannot on their own provide a compelling descriptive or explanatory account Rather, at individual, district, national and regional levels of analysis, economic factors intersect with other determinants of conflict to form a multifaceted, seamless mosaic Rational self-interest – the pillar of economic theory – is, therefore, a necessary, but not sufficient, factor in the analysis of these conflicts Rather, there exists a dynamic interplay between economic and other factors to foment and sustain conflict from the very micro level of individual participants to that of the most macro level of nation states with populations in the hundreds of millions Moreover, this multifacetedness introduces a self-sustaining aspect to the dynamics of many conflicts that frustrates efforts at their resolution The term ‘cycle of violence’ is commonly used to describe tit-for-tat retaliations that prolong and frequently escalate a conflict as violent acts spur reprisals that prompt further retaliation in a self-perpetuating sequence of events In contrast, a common theme that emerges from many of the chapters in this volume concerns a different cycle premised upon the mutual reciprocity between the inverse of violent conflict – public order and security – on the one hand, and investment and economic growth, on the other While a stable, secure environment may promote investment, trade and other generators of wealth, a degree of (anticipated) wealth and economic growth is also a pre-requisite to public order and security The result is not so much a cycle of violence but, rather, a series of intersecting spirals where causal influences that both stimulate and 227 free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com 228 Matthew J Webb and Albert Wijeweera discourage conflict may operate simultaneously in a dynamic series of positive and negative feedback loops For example, numerous chapters in the volume emphasize the use of tactics by insurgents to place economic pressure on states by targeting strategic and revenue-generating infrastructure, killing government workers and enforcing general strikes In addition to creating a public perception of the insurgency as ascendant, these tactics disrupt sources of government revenue, increase the cost to the government of continuing the conflict, reduce the government’s ability to outbid the insurgents and, therefore, discourage desertion and defection from the insurgents’ ranks as the opportunity costs of remaining in the movement are diminished Similarly, conflict-affected states frequently devote increasing economic and financial resources to defence sectors in order to achieve a military victory and provide the security necessary for the investment and economic growth required to finance a military solution However, these tactics may backfire and, rather than bringing about a state of affairs conducive to ending the conflict, instead feed the cycle of violence For example, as Islam, Chima and Kantha demonstrate, domestic and international factors pertaining to economic development were a key cause of the discontent that prompted substate conflicts in Bangladesh, India and Nepal and, also, a lever used by all sides to advance their strategic objectives Similarly, Kollias and Papadamou in Chapter 11, and Brasted and Ahmed in Chapter 7, show how the diversion of government spending to less productive defence sectors can come at a cost to more productive and economically beneficial sectors such as health care and education In each case the lesson is that attempting to win a conflict militarily through economic sabotage or the diversion of resources to defence sectors may work to all sides’ disadvantage by reducing the government’s ability to provide the basic services and economic growth necessary to ensuring economic and political stability Consequently, the infliction of economic pain and diversion of valuable national resources to the military may be an effective strategic tool, but only where the consequences can be contained to the short-term and there is minimal damage to the state’s longer-term economic prospects Otherwise the parties to a conflict run the risk of achieving a pyrrhic victory where – whichever side forms the government – economic fundamentals are so badly damaged that the state cannot provide sufficient public goods and services to prevent a slide back into disorder and conflict Moreover, as Siddiqi, Brasted and Ahmed demonstrate, the peculiar dynamics between order and stability, on the one hand, and economic www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com Conclusion 229 growth and development, on the other, pervade the entire South Asian region In Balochistan there exists a conundrum where, while natural resources are the key to a stable, prosperous economy, their successful exploitation requires a degree of stability and security that – absent the extraction of these resources to secure the loyalty of local elites – may be untenable Furthermore, as the case of Pakistan demonstrates, attempting to impose this order militarily may have the opposite effect and instead retard economic growth through the presentation of an image of instability that discourages investors and business activity The challenge for less-developed, insecure regions such as these is how to escape the Catch-22 situation where insecurity prevents the economic growth necessary to sustain a return to a stable, prosperous state of affairs Additionally, as Vemsani’s discussion of the environmental degradation suffered by the Himalayas and its potentially calamitous consequences highlights, the need for a cooperative approach to achieve the economic potential that is a pre-requisite for order and vice versa, extends to the relationship between states Ensuring the sustainability of the Himalayan ranges requires a coordinated strategy between states where stakeholders put aside short-term benefit to focus upon longerterm, inter-generational gain to preserve an essential ecological and environmental resource for the economies of South and South East Asia Failure to achieve the consensus required for such a coordinated strategy threatens to bring about the harmful conditions that make such an agreement so vital At the same time, however, the support required for such an agreement will be difficult to obtain without the continued financial benefits to states that rest upon continued exploitation of waterways and other natural Himalayan resources, but which also threatens the viability of these Absent the promise of sustained benefits from future development there is a risk that industry and other stakeholders may fail to perceive the value of conserving Himalayan resources and instead engage in unrestrained development in an attempt to extract maximum benefit from these natural assets before they are exhausted In many respects this would be the worst possible outcome as predictions of environmental and economic catastrophe become a self-fulfilling prophecy As in the examples cited above, securing the optimal result requires convincing stakeholders to work together so that the benefits of cooperation become apparent and the negative feedback loop of conflict and the harmful consequences of under-/over-development may be broken Finally, in Chapter 12, Tasiran and Ali’s quantitative analysis provides empirical evidence regarding the nexus between economic free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com 230 Matthew J Webb and Albert Wijeweera development and conflict Their finding that a conflict is more likely to end as per capita GDP rises highlights the crucial role of economic factors in understanding both the causes of conflict and the preconditions for ending cycles of violence Because economic benefits and expectations of future benefits increase the opportunity cost of continuing a conflict, disputants have an incentive to invest in a negotiated solution in order to preserve existing benefits and maximize future gains The challenge for policy and decision-makers is to fashion an environment where this understanding can be translated into tangible rewards This requires belligerents to imagine an alternative reality in which the mutually complimentary benefits of peace and economic development provide a realizable alternative to the status quo, and the difficulties raised by a return to prosperity – including the distribution of benefits and opportunities – can be peaceably settled www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com Index 9/11 terrorist attacks 117–18, 122, 135 Bhutto, Zulfikar Ali 59, 119, 121 Bin Ladin, Osama 115 Birendra, King 75, 82–4 Bluestar, Operation 51 Brass, Paul R 12–13, 34, 36–9 Afghanistan 1–3, 57–8, 67–8, 114, 122, 126, 128, 173, 192–4, 196–7, 199, 207, 217 Agriculture over-reliance on 46, 53, 79, 157 and conflicts over irrigation 37, 40, 44–5, 174, 186 Akali Dal agitation against New Delhi 33, 36, 39, 43, 47–9 and Bhindrinwale 51 and divisions within 39 Al Qaeda 115, 122–3 Anandpur Sahib Resolution (ASR) 33, 39, 47–54 Anderson, Benedict 86 Arunachal Pradesh 150, 156, 177, 180 Assam 15–6, 150, 156–8, 160, 177 Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) model 139–43 Badal, Parkash Singh 39, 51, 54 Balochistan nationalist uprising and national resources 8, 58, 60, 62–6 and poverty 58, 64 and tribal politics 8, 57–8, 65 Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) 58, 67 Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) 58, 67 Baloch, Allah Nazar, 67 Baloch, Saleem, 67 Bangladesh creation 2–3, 7, 12, 20–1, 155 and national identity of 18–19 Bhakra-Nangal Dam 45, 49 Bhindranwale, Sant Jarnail Singh 50–1 Bhutan 2, 172–5, 178–83 Caste 40, 48, 77–80, 86, 90 Chakma tribe 15, 20, 22 Chakma, Priti Kumar 22–3 Chamalang Coal Mines 65–6 China 1962 war with India 81, 95, 98–9, 174, 182 and assistance to separatists in India 164 and emergence as a world power 1, 8–10, 184–5 and investment in South Asia 66–8 and military assistance 5, 82, 164 and rivalry with India 8–9, 82, 93, 100, 172–3, 181–3 and technological modernization 92–4, 104–5, 182 and territorial disputes with neighboring states 182–4 Chittagong Hill Tract British colonial administration of 15 and constitutional status of 18, 21–2, 25–6 and demographics 19, 23–4 and economic development of 14–8, 23–4 geography of 14 and government responses to political violence 23–7 and incorporation into Bangladesh 14–8 and land ownership 17–9 and separatist movement 12, 20–3 Colonialism, British 1–2, 15, 21, 35, 57–61, 150, 194 156–9 Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) 83, 87 231 free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com 232 Index Congress Party (India) 16, 38–40, 44, 47, 51–4 Corruption 2–3, 12, 17–18, 62, 80, 108 Cox Proportional Hazards models 212–13, 221–23 Criminality 70–1, 88, 161, 155, 161, 178, 181 Dahal, Pushpa K., 87 Defense spending and crowding out effects 11, 201, 205–7, 228 India 95–6, 198 and in South Asia 3, 95, 192, 196–200 and growth-limiting effects 205–6 and Sri Lanka 133 Deuba, Sher Bahadur 84 Dharam Yudh Morcha 39, 47, 50–1 Diaspora connection to conflict 10, 157, 162–4 and definition of 162 and Kashmiri 163–4 and Sikh 163–4 and Tamil 162–3 Economic liberalization/ decentralization 89 Education and ethnic mobilization 20, 67, 117, 159 and inadequate provision of 64, 156 and jobs 80, 192 and propaganda 23 Electoral systems 87 Ershad, General Hussain Muhammad 24, Ethnicity cause of conflict 7, 13 and class 22, 48–9, 62, 79, 87–90 and constructivist accounts of 13 and definition of 60 and religion 6, 47, 118–21 Federalism 33, 35–8, 47–50, 54, 87–9 Gandhi, Indira 38–9, 45–51 Gandhi, Rajiv 133 GDP growth of 1–3, 76, 95, 118, 127, 133, 200, 205, 227–8 and relationship to conflict 224–5 Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model 139–43 Gilani, Yousaf Raza 126 Global financial crisis 1, 125 Green Revolution 32–3, 37–54 Gurr, Ted Robert 13–14, 28, 33–4, 52 Gwadar Port 60, 62–9, 184 Gyanendra, King 75, 84–5, 75 Hill District Council Act (1998) of Bangladesh 26 Himalayas cultural significance of 175 and economic importance of 175–7 and earthquakes 173–8 and geography of 172–3 Hinduism 40, 175 Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) 98–109 Horowitz, Donald 13, 34, 52, 151 Huntington, Samuel 13–14, 28, 77, 153 Hydroelectric projects 17, 45, 173–8 182–6 India Counter-insurgency strategy 156 and economy 42–6, 53–4, 193–4 and interventionism 3, 20–4, 81–8, 161–7 and Kashmir 5, 122, 159–60, 194–5 and military spending 3, 94–6, 198–200 and military strategy 96–101, 106–7, 173, 181–4, 196–7 and northeastern states 155–8, 194–5 partition 2, 15–16 and political structure of 35–40 Indian Air Force (IAF) aircraft development 101–8 and importance of 96–7, 108 and planning problems 97, 108 and procurement 95–6, 108–9 www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com Index Industrial development as cause of conflict 17–19, 23, 36–7, 42, 46–9, 53 environment costs of 175, 179 importance of 27, 76, 86, 109 Indus waters Treaty 186 Investment Government control of 36–7, 42, 54 and in military research and development 95–6, 100–1 and reduction of due to conflict 4, 9, 63–5, 72, 124–5, 128, 134, 212 Iraq 115 Israel 101, 132, 135 Jamaat-e-Islami 118–9 Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) 163–5 Jana Sanghati Samity 22 Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP) 133, 195 Kaptai Dam 17–8, 20, 27 Kashmir (Jammu and) central interference in 160 and diaspora 162–4 and National Conference party of 159 and Pakistani involvement in 122–3, 161, 165 and separatism 3, 5, 118, 122, 150, 160, 174, 195 Katuwal, Rukumgat 87 Land ownership and reform 15–27, 25–26, 36, 40–3, 52–3, 62–5, 79–80, 84, 156–8 Language, politics of 21, 35, 50, 86, 155–9, 162 Larma, Maobendra 20–22 Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) 115, 122 Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 3, 133, 136–8, 144, 150, 159–67, 195 Luni Tribe 65–6 Mahendra, King 78–81 Manipur 150, 156–61 233 Marri, Khair Bakhsh, 59, 65–8 Marri Tribe 65–7 Migration internal 19–20, 23–4, 27, 79–80, 90, 157 and inter-state 156–7, 161 Mizoram 17, 21, 150, 156–7 Muhajir Quami Movement (MQM) 121 Mukti Bahini 21, 161, 164–6 Multipolarity 185 Musharraf, General Pervez 62, 68–71, 120, 126 Myanmar (Burma) 14, 161, 164, 171, 178, 186 Nagaland, 53, 150, 156–7 National Awami Party 59 Nehru, Jawaharlal, 38, 78 Nepal Constitutional crisis 8, 77 and economy 76–7 and Madhesi people 79, 85–90 and Maoists 5–8, 75–8, 83–90 and poverty 77 and relations with India 78, 80–83 and Seven Party Alliance (SPA) 75 and transition to democracy 78–9 Nepal Congress Party (NC) 78 Nuclear weapons 5, 103, 175, 182, 194 Pakistan Costs of terrorism 116–7, 125–30 and foreign aid 81 and military rule 16, 121–2 and National Financial Commission (NFC) Award 63, 69 and Punjabi domination of 63, 68 and Two Nation Theory 15, 118–9 and sponsorship of terrorism 115 122–3, 161, 165 and relations with China 93–6 and wars with India 2, 103, 121, 165, 194 Panel data vector auto-regression 200–203 Pashtu 58, 60, 65, 120 free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com 234 Index Poverty Rural 41, 63–4, 76–9 and South Asia 1–2, 215 and terrorism 41, 63–4, 152 Prabakaran, Velupillai 159 Premadasa, Ranasinghe 133 Primordialist, theories of conflict 12–13 Rahman, Sheikh Mujibur (Mujib) 21–2 Rahman, Ziaur 18, 24 Reko Diq 60–5 Richardson, Lewis Fry 212–4 Secession Definition of 149 and greed, theories 33–35, 43, 47, 52–4, 62, 72, 149–55, 161 and grievance theories 33–6, 43, 47–8, 52–4, 62, 72, 149–65 and South Asia 2–6 and lesser forms of autonomy 60 Shanti Bahini 21, 24–5 Sharia 118–23, 129 Shastri, Lal Bahadur 38 Shimla Agreement 174 Shiromani Gurdwara Prabandak Committee (SGPC) 39 Sikkim 82, 175, 183 Sindhi uprising 120–1 Singh, Master Tara 39 Singh, Sant Fateh 39 Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP) 115, 121 Situationalist, theories of group conflict 13–14, 27–28 Soviet Union (USSR) 57, 93–4, 99, 103, 106, 122, 194 Sri Lanka Anti-Tamil riots 159 and economic costs of civil war 3–4, 133–4, 136–8 and Indian intervention in 3, 82, 162 and People’s Alliance government of 137–8 and stock exchange of 138–9, 144–6 Sui gas field 63–4, 68–70, 75 Survival analysis 211–13, 218–23 Taliban 3, 115, 120–2, 128–9, 174, 194–5 Tejas fighter jet 97, 104, 107–8 Terai 79–80, 86–90 Terrorism 4, 100, 114–8, 121–30, 195 Tethyan Copper Company 65 Tourism 125, 134, 175, 179, 182 Tibet 14, 66, 96, 172–85 Tribhuvana, King 78 Tsongpo Gorge Dam 178 Two Nation Theory 166 ul-Haq, General Zia 119–21 United Liberation Front for Assam (ULFA) 160 Unemployment 14, 46, 48, 124, 156, 215 Uttarakhand 179–80 United States 36, 68, 84, 95, 99–100, 102–6, 115, 163, 167 War types of 6, 216–17 and possible outcomes of 219–20 www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com This page intentionally left blank free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com This page intentionally left blank www.ebook777.com free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com This page intentionally left blank free ebooks ==> www.ebook777.com This page intentionally left blank www.ebook777.com ... actively involved in the promotion of South Asia Studies in Australia as he took on the joint roles of Secretary of the South Asian Studies Association of Australia (1984–2002) and Editor of South Asia. .. at Southern Cross Business School following the award of her PhD in 2013 and her master’s degree in Professional Accounting in 2009 Before joining Southern Cross University as Teaching Fellow in. .. separatism in the CHT, again highlighting the crucial role of economic issues in determining the success of these The CHT region was ceded to the British East India Company in 1760 but was administered