Michael j panzner when giants fall an economic roadmap for the end of the american era

Table of Contents Title Page Copyright Page Dedication Preface Acknowledgements Introduction Coming Home to Roost Gaining Advantage Responding to the End of the American Era Part I - FAULT LINES OF A FADING EMPIRE Chapter - Descent into Disorder Signs of Imperial Demise Days of Diminishing Respect A Corroding Currency Chinks in the Armor Chaotic Unraveling An Unsettling Transition Chapter - Tides, Torrents, and Tsunamis Demographic Dynamics The End of Abundance When Supply Doesn’t Meet Demand Collateral Damage Wrong No More? Searching for Greener Alternatives The Irony of Going Nuclear Chapter - A Future of Violence The Strains of Awareness Heat from the Hot Spots Buildups in Conventional Firepower Tensions on the Rise Jockeying for Spheres of Influence Planting the Seeds for Economically Debilitating Violence Chapter - Money Talks Where the Exposure Lies The Dollar’s Growing Loss of Favor Effects of a New Economic Framework No Longer for Sale? Financial Firepower Economic Espionage and Warfare The Nuclear Option Chapter - Local Is the New Global No Longer Ignored A Growing Backlash Hostile Forces Gather Steam Tough Talk on Trade A Rising Tide of Isolationism, Protectionism, and Xenophobia Divisive Forces Fear Further Fuels Deglobalization Chapter - Multiplying Divisions Short Shrift to New Realities A Souring Reputation Winds of Change Spreading Divisiveness A Mixture of Crosscurrents Growing Hatred and Discord Part II - OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS Chapter - Everybody’s Business If Life Hands You Lemons, Make Lemonade More Than Just Resource Constraints One Problem after Another Living by Other Nations’ Rules Less Than Straightforward Threats to Security Chapter - Small Fortunes An Array of Negative Undercurrents Not Just Resources Opportunity Knocks? Searching for Safety The Biggest Loser Another Casualty The Promise of Commodities Changing Preferences Chapter - The Power of One Where to Go, What to Do Creating a Personal Roadmap Blood Ties Not So Idyllic Conclusion Bibliography About the Author Index Copyright © 2009 by Michael J Panzner All rights reserved Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey Published simultaneously in Canada No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the web at www.copyright.com Requests to the Publisher for 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those of the author and not necessarily reflect the views of any other individual or organization For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002 Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Panzner, Michael J When giants fall : an economic roadmap for the end of the American era/ Michael J Panzner p cm Includes bibliographical references and index eISBN : 978-0-470-45126-7 United States—Economic conditions—21st century International economic relations—21st century Natural resources Geopolitics—21st century Balance of power I Title II.Title: End of the American era HC106.83.P36 2009 330.973—dc22 2008040635 To Catherine, A light that is always there, warming my soul Commodities see also Resources Communications networks Competition between nations Consumers, saving and spending habits Consumption of resources Correa, Rafael Corsi, Jerome Credit crisis, U.S Crime, violent see Violence Cross-border commerce see also Free trade Cultural decline Currencies Chinese European fiat global United States Cyber terrorism D Davis, Ann Davis, Bob Debt government mounting U.S Defense spending Deglobalization demographic problems of environmental benefits of fallout from future challenges from and solutions for businesses threats to stability from Demise, signs of impending Demographics “Demographic tsunami” Developing nations see also specific country names climate change and economic growth in effects of faltering U.S growth on health problems in investments of nuclear power and polution in protectionism in threats to stability in Diamond, Jared Dillon, Sam Distributional conflict Dobbs, Lou Dollar, David Dollar, U.S see Currencies, United States Donziger, Alan Dougherty, Carter Downie, Andrew Drajem, Mark Drug Trafficking Dyer, Geoff E Economic conditions, deterioration of Economic dependence of U.S Economic espionage Economic expansionism Economic growth in China in Developing nations faltering in India in Russia Economies of scale Edlund, Lena Edmonds, Sibel Education Educational ranking of U.S Emerging market economies Employment Employment conditions Energy shortages, effects of England see Great Britain Entrepreneurship Environmental damage Espionage economic electronic Russian Ethanol subsidies EU (European Union) Treaty European Monetary Union (EMU) European Union (EU) environmental guidelines establishment of EU Treaty Evans-Pritchard, Ambrose Exxon-Mobil F Fallows, James Faltering growth of U.S Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Feffer, John Ferguson, Niall Fertility rate disparities Financial market turbulence Food production Food security Food shortages Foreign aid Foreign currency assets/reserves Foreign policy, world view of U.S Foreign trade see also Cross-border commerce; Free trade Forelle, Charles Fradkov, Mikhail Free trade alternatives to antipathy toward collapse of deceleration of and economic downturn NAFTA and national interests offshoring original tenets of restriction of and social tensions Free trade agreements (FTAs) Friedman, George Friedman, Thomas G Gang, Qin Gates, Robert Gazprom Gender imbalance Geopolitical instability Germany economic policies of economy of health care system and NATO oil and Getty, John Paul Global cooperation, obstacles to Global dominance, quest for? Global image of U.S Globalization see also Free trade backlash against collapse of defined effects of and income inequality problems with reasons for reversal of roots of Global warming Gold, Russell Gold standard Goodman, Peter S Gorbachev, Mikhail Great Britain nuclear power and and Scotland and U.S hegemony Great Depression Gros, Daniel Guantanamo detention facilities Guha, Krishna H Haass, Richard Habel, Janette Hakim, Peter Hall, Ben Halliday, Fred Halligan, Liam Hard power Hate crimes Hattingh, Shawn Health and safety standards Health care systems Hegemony, American Helprin, Mark Hickley, Matthew Hiro, Dilip History of Violence, A (film) Hitt, Greg Hodson, Peter Hoguet, George Homer-Dixon,Thomas Hotz, Robert Lee Hubbert, M King Human rights Hurricane Katrina Hutchinson, Martin Hyperinflation I Ikenberry, John Immigration “Imperial overstretch” Income inequality India and Africa coal consumption of consumption habits of demographics of economic growth in economy of energy consumption of gender imbalance in labor in negotiations with U.S nuclear power and and nuclear weapons oil and Russian relations with space program of trade practices of Industrial metal consumption Infrastructure, water Infrastructure deterioration Intelligence see Espionage International Monetary Fund (IMF) Internet Investing environment Investments, investing asset liquidation bonds commodities international opportunities for precious metals Investments, investing risks U.S World War II Iran nuclear power and oil and protectionism in space program of U.S conflict with Iraq War Ireland Isachenkov, Vladimir Isolationism J Jacoby, Susan Jahn, George Jintao, Hu Johnson, Chalmers “Just-in-case” systems K Kagan, Robert Kalter, Eliot Keeling, Drew Kelleher, Elizabeth Kempe, Frederick Kerr, Simeone Khanna, Parag King, Neil, Jr King, Neil, Jr., quoted King, Stephen Kitty Hawk, USS Klare, Michael T Kobe, Kathryn Kosiak, Steven Kosovo Kotlikoff, Laurence J Krauss, Clifford Kunstler, Howard Kurlantzick, Joshua Kyoto Protocol L LaFranchi, Howard Laitner, Sarah Lancaster, Carol Latin America see also South America; specific country names Lefevre, Edwin Leslie, Jacques Leverett, Flynt Levin, Sander Lisbon Treaty Liu, Henry C.K Livermore, Jesse Localization Lovasz, Agnes Lucas, Edward Luce, Edward Luhnow, David Lutz, Catherine Lynch, David M Maddison, Angus Malthus, Thomas, quoted Mandel, Michael Manufacturing Marketing challenges McNally,Terrence Mearsheimer, John Medicare Medvedev, Dmitry Merkel, Angela Methane Mexico Middle East see also specific country names Migratory patterns Militarization Military capabilities, U.S Military threats Mining, precious metals Morales, Evo Mortished, Carl Moses, Abigail Mukherjee, Andy Multilateralism N NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) Naim, Moises Nasrallah, Hassan Nationalism Neoliberalism New Orleans, LA New world order challenges of dangers of realities of New Zealand Nonpolarity North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Nuclear conflict/weapons “Nuclear option” Nuclear power Nye, Joseph Nyquist, Jeffrey Nyquist, J R O Offshoring see also Outsourcing of production Oil Brazil and Germany and India and Iran and Pakistan and Russia and Saudi Arabia and supply and demand of use in food production Venezuela and Oil exploration Online gambling “Operation Wetback” Ortega, Daniel Outer space see Space exploration Outsourcing of production see also Offshoring P Pae, Peter Pakistan nuclear weapons and oil and unrest in violence in “Peak oil” Peaple, Andrew Pesek, William Petroleum see Oil Plender, John Pollution Popkin, Joel Populations see Demographics Post-American World, The Precious metals Preston, Julia Private sector, government involvement in Procter & Gamble Protectionism Putin,Vladimir Q Qaddafi, Muammar el Qatar R Rauchway, Eric Reagan, Ronald Real estate Redistribution of wealth Reed, Stanley Regulation of resources Reinart, Vincent Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre) Resentment, toward U.S Reserve currency Resource nationalism Resources competition for constraints on effects of surpluses food geographical distribution of increasing efficiency nationalization of oil see Oil regulation of supply and demand of transportation of water Ricardo, David Rice, Condolleeza Rigby, Elizabeth Riguang, Jin Roberts, Paul Craig Robinson, Simon Roman Empire, decline of Rosenbloom, Stephanie Russia and arms race and China demographics of economic growth in economic policies of foreign aid and foreign reserves of globalization and intelligence acquisition military ties with other countries nuclear power and nuclear weapons and oil and quest of power of separatist pressures and space program of trade practices of Russo-Chinese model S S & P 500 Sachs, Jeffrey Saleri, Nansen Sam’s Club Samuelson, Paul Samuelson, Robert J Sarkozy, Nicolas Saudi Arabia and arms race investments of oil and protectionism in Savings Schumacher, E F Scotland Scott, Mark Scowcroft, Brent Secessionist pressures Second-order effects Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order,The (Khanna) Security, and public safety Security threats Sekretarev, Ivan Sender, Henny Serbia Serling, Rod Setser, Brad Shapiro, Rob Shelman, Thomas Shifter, Michael Simmons, Matt Siwei, Cheng Small is Beautiful (Schumacher) Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act Social Security Soft power Solomon, Jay Sorrells, Niels C South America see also specific country names arms race in Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) Space exploration Space programs Spending irresponsible military see Defense spending State-controlled funds Steingart, Gabor STMicroelectronics Story, Louise Summers, Lawrence Supply and demand dynamics Supply and demand, of energy see also Resources Surowiecki, James SVR (Sluzhba Vneshny Razvedki) Swing, Joseph T Tax increases Taylor, Bryan Tensions international? Terrorism see also Violence Thailand The Long Emergency (Kunstler) Thornhill, John Thornton, Emily Threats Tiomkin, Avi Trade see also Cross-border commerce; Free trade foreign restriction on Transportation mass transit systems of product of resources Traynor, Ian “Trojan horse investing” Tschang, Chi-Chu Tucker, Sundeep Twilight Zone,The U Unemployment compensation United Arab Emirates United Kingdom see Great Britain United States currency values see Currencies, United States debt of diminishing power of ? economic globalization of economic position fall of global image of health care system investments of see Investments, investing and overseas investors position in Latin America position in Middle East resentment toward separatist sentiments in V Venezuela anti-American sentiment of arms purchases of arms race economic policies of increase in power nuclear power and oil and trade practices of Vietnam Violence conventional arms global increase in nuclear threats pervasiveness, in society potential escalators to racist research on terrorist threats W Warnock, Frank Waste transformation Waste-water dangers Water Wealth disparity Wealth distribution Wessel, David White, Stanley Wiggins, Jenny Wighton, David Woellert, Lorraine Wolf, Martin Wolff, Max Fraad Woodall, Pam World Trade Organization (WTO) World War II X Xenophobia Y Yaari, Ehud ... important, they will need to know how things will all play out in future When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era answers those questions—and more From an examination of. .. can be seen in the light of harbingers from the past Historians such as Edward Gibbons, who wrote The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, and Paul Kennedy, author of The Rise and Fall of the. .. countries In January 2008, for instance, Robert Kagan, the founder of the Project for the New American Century, a neoconservative think tank that had pressed for the invasion of Iraq, told German weekly