www.ebook3000.com Bringing in the Future www.ebook3000.com www.ebook3000.com Bringing in the Future s t r a t e g i e s f o r fa r s i g h t e d n e s s a n d s u s ta i n a b i l i t y i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s William Ascher The University of Chicago Press c h i c a g o & l o n d o n www.ebook3000.com w i l l i a m a s c h e r is the Donald C McKenna Professor of Government and Economics at Claremont McKenna College The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2009 by The University of Chicago All rights reserved Published 2009 Printed in the United States of America 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 1 2 3 4 isbn-13: 978-0-226-02916-0 (cloth) isbn-13: 978-0-226-02917-7 (paper) isbn-10: 0-226-02916-6 (cloth) isbn-10: 0-226-02917-4 (paper) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Ascher, William Bringing in the future : strategies for farsightedness and sustainability in developing countries / William Ascher p cm Includes bibliographical references and index isbn-13: 978-0-226-02916-0 (cloth : alk paper) isbn-13: 978-0-226-02917-7 (pbk : alk paper) isbn-10: 0-226-02916-6 (cloth : alk paper) isbn-10: 0-226-02917-4 (pbk : alk paper) Sustainable development—Developing countries Natural resources— Developing countries—Management Economic forecasting—Developing countries Developing countries—Economic conditions I Title hc59.72.e5a83 2009 338.9'27091724—dc22 2008017174 ¥ The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ansi z39.48-1992 www.ebook3000.com For Ariana, Hannah, and Macabee, who deserve to live in a farsighted world www.ebook3000.com www.ebook3000.com contents List of Tables ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii pa r t i The Challenges and Hopes for Farsighted Action The Challenge of Farsightedness The Root Causes of Shortsightedness and Their Manifestations in Developing Countries 29 Gaining Traction to Overcome Obstacles to Farsightedness 44 pa r t i i Structuring Rewards and Risks Creating and Rescheduling Tangible Benefits and Costs 65 Creating and Rescheduling Social and Psychological Rewards 91 Realigning Performance Evaluation 105 Self-Restraint Instruments 119 pa r t i i i Improving Analytic Frameworks Analytic Exercises 151 Deepening Problem Definitions 173 www.ebook3000.com pa r t i v Framing the Appeals 10 Design Dimensions of Communicating Farsighted Appeals 189 11 The Triple Appeal Principle 205 12 Managing Heuristics 213 pa r t v Changing the Policy Process 13 Empowering and Insulating the Farsighted Leader 231 14 Structuring Decision-Making Processes 241 15 Conclusions 252 Notes 259 References 273 Index 299 www.ebook3000.com tables 4.1 Design options for structuring material benefits and costs 66 4.2 Strategies of creating or rescheduling tangible consequences 89 7.1 Categories and applications of self-restraint mechanisms 121 8.1 Variations of analytic exercises 152 9.1 Criteria for assessing the policy process 185 10.1 Design dimensions of communications 191 10.2 Tendencies of framing and implications for communication 203 14.1 Objectives and design dimensions of decision-making processes 250 www.ebook3000.com 314 Index liability protection, 84–85 liberalization reforms, 21–22, 53, 90, 100, 188, 219–20, 226 Liberia, 260n16 libraries, 147 life histories, 235 Lindblom, Charles, 243 Lions Clubs, 87, 102, 263n12 literacy, 113–14 littering, 18, 192 lobbying: business, 240; environmental, 94; by U.S conservation groups, 95 See also advocacy groups; interest groups Loewenstein, George, 46, 48–49, 194, 207, 262n1 (chap 3), 262n3 (chap 3), 262n4 (chap 4), 268n3 logging See timber Loncar, Dejan, Loomes, Graham, 269n6 Looney, Adam, 261n8 loss limits, 242 love, 205, 207, 263n3 low-level equilibrium trap, 40, 138–39 low-probability-high-impact events, 154–55, 162–64, 171 Lundstrum, Leonard, 111–13 Madamombe, Itai, 256 Mader, Sandra, 262n5 magnitude effect, 193 Magrath, William, 108 Mahaweli dams (Sri Lanka), 209 Malaysia: affected by Asian economic crisis, 155; savings rates in, 17; shifting cultivation in, 268n5 mandate creation, 121, 128–29, 131–32, 155–56, 170–71, 175, 237, 254 mangroves, in Southeast Asia, 165 Manning, Patrick (Trinidad and Tobago), 201–2 Marcos, Ferdinand (Philippines), 195, 209 marital fidelity, 20, 51 market structures, 35 Marquand, Robert, 161 Marteleto, Letícia, Marten, Lisa, 93 Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge, 22 martyrs, 207 Mason, Andrew, Masson, Paul, 30 Mathers, Colin, Max Fleischmann Foundation, 147–48 Maximum Sustainable Yield (for resource management), 97, 196, 199 May, Elizabeth, 222 Mayer, Monika, 180 Mayfield, Melinda, 65 Mazur, James, 46 McDonald, 261n2 McDougal, Myres, 261n18 McKean, Margaret, McNeely, R., 180 McQuillan, Alan, 170 media: attacks on farsighted leaders, 237; constraints on in developing countries, 41; emotion-arousing, 206; environmental coverage by, 132, 222–23; Haitian, 246; reportage of corruption, 190; reportage of reform efforts, 214; reportage of Trinidad and Tobago’s “Vision 2020,” 202 Mehotra, Rati, 75 Mekong Economics Ltd., 262n2 (chap 4) mental health care, 148 mental models, 224 merger of interests, 60, 126, 128, 247 Mertig, Angela, 263n4 metrics: educational, 114; environmental, 107–9; for charitable organizations, 115; for nongovernmental organizations, 114–15; for perfor mance evaluation, 106–15; problems Index 315 of, 116–17, 123, 243–54; qualitative, 116–17; quantitative, 116–17 Mexico, 259n2, 270n1; divided government in, 270n1 (chap 14); education policy, 9; energy pricing in, 198, 269n7; infrastructure in, 23; mutual accommodation in, 243; petroleum in, 23, 198, 269n7; planning in, 243; policy reforms in, 50; presidential term limit in, 239; savings rates in, 4, 259n2 microenterprise, in Vietnam, 68–69 Middle East: labor productivity, 6; nomadism in, 177 migration, 177, 208 See also resettlement programs in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Thailand migratory species, 166 Miles, Ian, 167 milestones, of community accomplishments, 80, 111 See also targets Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 163 Miller, Timothy, minerals See mining Mingat, Alain, 260n16 minimum age requirements for office, 234 mining: contamination from, 77; Guatemalan agency for, 129; hasty extraction of, 137; risks, 79 Ministry of Education (Thailand), 183 Ministry of Higher Education (Thailand), 183 miranda, 195, 207 misguided far-sighted strategies, 27–28 mission statements, 155; of the ACLU, 270n1; of the Honduran National Forestry School, 97 MISTRA (Sweden), 139, 163 Mitchell, Robert, 263n4 Mittelfristige Finanzplannung (Germany), 130 mixed-age group deliberations, 234 mobilization of activists, 12–13, 27–28, 95, 100, 158–59, 195, 197, 206 Mondino, Guillermo, 144 money-based stabilization, 260n10 monitoring: of commitment fulfillment, 135; entrenchment of measures of, 157; environmental, 167, 179; and focus of attention, 157; for performance evaluation, 109–10; priorities for, 154; routinization of, 157 Montreal Protocol, 126, 221–22, 270n6 moral hazard, 24, 34, 70, 78–79 moral imperatives, 50, 91, 209 moral suasion, 209 See also superego appeals Morehead, M D., 180 Morss, Rebecca, 175 mortgage collatera1, 133 See also collateral Mozambique, road maintenance funds in, mudslides, 3–4, 11, 20 See also floods Muir, John, 95–96 Mulgan, Geoff, 266n3 Mulligan, Casey, 261n1 multistage policy making, 244–45; in U.K., 244–45; in U.S., 244–45 multivalue approach, 9, 63, 187–88 multiyear budgeting, 121, 129–30, 142–43, 156, 265n9; South African, 143; U.K., 142–43; Uruguayan, 142 Munck, Gerardo, 240 municipal authorities, 246–47 municipal services, 21, 246–47 Muñoz, Ronny, 75 mutual accommodation/accommodation, 243, 250; in Mexico, 243 mutual-aid societies, 72 Myanmar, Mekong River Basin cooperation, 166 Myhre, Arne, 180 Myhre, Gunnar, 180 316 Index Naga City (Philippines), 101, 225, 246–47, 252 Nagin, Daniel, 262n3 (chap 3) nanotechnology, 167 National Academy of Engineering (U.S.), 30, 113 National Audubon Society, 94–95, 263n4 National Judicial College (U.S.), 147 national pride, 56, 104, 209 National Research Council (U.S.), 165, 178–79 National Wildlife Federation, 94–95, 263n4 natural resources: advanced payments for, 19, 72–74, 81, 89; assessments of, 163–64; endowments of, 7, 9–11, 56; excessive/hasty extraction of, 11, 14, 30, 71–73, 76–77, 107–8, 188; forecasting trends in, 161, 198–99, 267n7; insurance for, 72–73, 89–90; integrating depletion of in national accounts, 107–8; management of, 231, 248, 263n9, 265n7, 268n8; managing revenues from, 252; maximum sustainable yield doctrine for extracting, 196, 199–200; positive externalities from, 34; strategies for safeguarding, 9, 137–39 See also specific resources Natural Resources and Environment Ministry (Thailand), 260n15 nature: reserves, 25, 138; respect for, 103–4, 162, 165, 209 See also conservation Nature Conservancy, neighborhood associations, 101–2 neighborhood deterioration, 220 neighborhood improvement, 45, 77, 101–2, 125–26 See also community self-help upgrading Neira, Eduardo, 74 neoliberal policy reform, 99–100 Nevada, 147–48, 178–79; University of, 147–48 new institutional economics, 53–54 New York City, 145, 253, 266n11 NGOs See nongovernmental organizations Nisbett, Richard, 216 no-confidence vote, 133 Noll, Roger, 227–28 nondismissible positions, 236–37 nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), 3, 4, 7–8, 11, 12–13, 18–20, 25–27, 41, 46, 70, 72–73, 75–76, 79–80, 89, 99–101, 103, 111, 114–15, 128, 158–59, 163, 166, 170, 176, 184, 201, 215, 225, 235, 238, 247, 264n7; environmental, 12, 19–20, 132, 139; leaders of, 163, 254; nonsimultaneous exchange, 261 nontraditional crops, See also farming norms, 20, 264n8; consistent with farsighted actions, 28, 51–52; inculcation of, 57–59, 91–104, 137, 209, 232; plasticity of, 103; professional, 98–99, 256–57; roles in promoting far-sighted actions, 57–59 North, Douglass, 127 North Africa, nomadism in, 177 North America: charitable contributions in, 7; education spending, Northern Europe, charitable contributions in, North Sea Council, 138 not-for-profit organizations, 237 See also nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) N-250 airplane (Indonesia), 209 nuclear energy, 223–24; waste disposal for, 140, 165, 178–79 Nuclear Energy Agency (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development), 223–24 nuclear weapons, 233–34 Index 317 Nurkse, Ragnar, 40 nutrition, 11, 31, 180, 183 See also food O’Donoghue, Ted, 262n1, 262n4 (chap 4) oil See petroleum oil-exporting countries, 6, 14, 210 “once and for all” solutions, 178–79 “One Baht a Day” Savings Program (Thailand), 70, 92–93, 136, 255 Oportunidades Program (Mexico), opportunity costs, 157 optimism: arrogant/perverse, 39, constructive/realistic, 55–56, 65–66; influence of heuristics on, 214–15 Optimist Clubs, 87 opt-out provisions, 60, 68, 90; in Chilean social security reform, 71 Orangi Pilot Project (Pakistan), 80, 252 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 142, 223 organizational culture, 172, 255 organizations, analytical weaknesses of, 37 Ossowski, Rolando, 137 Ostrom, Elinor, 9, 260n8, 263n9 “Our Common Future” (World Commission on Environment and Development), 166–67 outcome evaluation, 106–7 output evaluation, 106–7 overeating, 140 Overholt, William, 266n2 (chap 8) overgeneralization, of behavioral frequency, 97 overgrazing, by Iranian nomads, 177 ownership: community sense of, 20–21; by firms’ employees, 82; rights, 19 ozone layer, 126, 221–22, 270n6 Pacto de Chicoral (Colombia), 86 Page, Sheila, 261n6 Palme, Olof, 171 Palumbo, Dennis, 264n2 Parallel evaluation, 110–11 Parayre, Roch, 269n6 parental approval, 51 parents clubs, 92, 137 Parents Day, 92, 263n3 Park regime (Korea), 260n9 Parliament (U.K.), 244 Parsons, Talcott, 271n1 participation: collective actions and, 12–13; community, 7, 20, 80, 101–2; conservation and environmental in the U.S., 93–95; in discourses, 159–60; inclusiveness of, 45, 241, 246–50, 255; in planning, 152–53, 224; by stakeholders, 121, 127 Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) (Mexico), 243 Partners in Development (Philippines), 246–47 pawnbrokers, 133–34 Pecchi, Aurelio, 199 peer approval, 51 See also affection; deference; intangible rewards; respect PEMEX, 269n7 penalties: in contracts, 125; enforcement of, 76–77; excessive, 14, 250n15; graduated, 77, 90 pension/social security systems: Chilean, 69–71; private, 25; public, 17–18, 24–25, 36, 69–71, 89–90, 219 performance evaluation, 105–18, 229, 235, 237–38, 253–55; avoiding pitfalls of, 115–18; of business executives, 109–13, 117; of government officials, 113–14, 117; of nongovernmental managers, 114–15; processes, 117–18; qualitative, 117; quantitative, 106–17; resistance to, 116; trivialization of, 116 See also metrics 318 Index perpetual endowment See foundations, quasi-governmental, in Sweden personality components, 188, 205–12 personal liberty, 20, 270n1 perspectives, components of, 16, 34–35 persuasion, 13, 25–27, 189, 204 Peru, household savings rates in, 4, 259n2 pesticides, 76, 78, 180–81 Peterson, Steven, 51 Petroleos Mexicanos, 269n7 petroleum: in Alaska, 140; consumption in United States, 210; dependence, 223; exporting countries, 14, 210; in Mexico, 23, 198, 269n7; pricing, 14; production, 6, 137; spills, 172; U.S federal reserves, 267n7 pharmaceutical companies, 85, 90 philanthropy See charitable contributions Philippines: Caucus of Development NGO Networks, 100; food policy in, 31, 183; grass-roots organizations in, 100; industrial policy in, 195, 209; Kaantabay sa Kauswagan Program, 101–2 See also Naga City (Philippines) Phuket (Thailand), cultural restoration, 208 physical infrastructure See infrastructure; ports; roads; telecommunications physical security, 11, 20, 51, 65, 97–99, 179, 200–201, 224, 246 See also wellbeing, as a value physicians, 85 See also health Pillsbury, Michael, 142 Pimentel, David, Piñera, José, 70–71 Pinstrup-Andersen, Per, 15 planning, 15, 24, 32, 38–39, 45, 53, 55, 60, 65, 84, 151–54, 155, 156–60, 166, 175, 220–21, 254; agencies, 34, 41, 106; budgeting as, 130; challenges of, 32, 168–71; communications, 23; in developing countries, 168; economic/fiscal, 121, 128, 130, 243; education, 183; Egyptian, 260n16; horizon, 151–52; indicative, 143; infrastructure, 98; mandates from, 170–71; Mexican, 243; multisector, 201; nuclear-energy, 224; ritualized, 32, 168–71; rolling, 170; Soviet, 169; superficial, 168, 170; Swedish, 171–72; technical-unit, 60, 152–53, 155; Thai, 183; U.K., 142; U.S., 168–70, 208 Planning, Programming and Budgeting System (U.S.), 130 plantation forests, in China, See also forests and forestry plywood manufacture, 15 poaching, 14, 269n15 Poland, divided government, 270n1 (chap 14) police officials, 116 policy dialogue, 178, 184 policy reform, 25–26, 30–31, 38; in Argentina, 143–44; in Costa Rica, 141–42, 238; economic, 7, 10, 21, 99–100, 196, 208, 214; in Mexico, 50 policy sciences approach, 9, 16–17, 63, 187–88, 195, 256, 263n1, 271n2 political culture, 154, 243 political decay, 11 political stability, 11, 42, 55–57, 257 political support, 11, 134 pollution, 76–77, 94, 108, 138, 161, 164, 198, 220, 223, 242; in Mexico, 198 Pomareda, Carlos, 263n7 Population: as a budget allocation criterion, 123; growth, 9, 177, 261n4 See also resettlement programs port authorities, 131, 145, 266n11 Index 319 Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, 145, 266n11 Portnoy, Paul, 47 Port of Spain (Trinidad and Tobago), 202 ports, 23, 82, 131, 145, 266n2 positive externalities See externalities posters, as communication medium, 206 poverty, 4, 43, 55 poverty alleviation, 12–13, 159, 215, 218; in Chile, 100; through Integrated Rural Development, 181; in Mekong River Basin nations, 166–68; in the Philippines, 100; in Trinidad and Tobago, 202 Powell, Andrew, 260n11 power: electric, 161–62, 164, 178, 223; as a value, 16, 91–92, 102–5, 184, 271n2 (chap 15) See also hydropower; nuclear energy power stations, in China, 161–62 precedent-based systems, 237 precedents, 50, 86, 145, 222, 237 preference reversals, 200 Prelec, Drazen, 46, 262n1 presentism, 156 See also shortsightedness Preskill, Hallie, 264n2 prestige projects, 209 preventive health care, 15, 34, 89; behavior, 200–201 pride: as an id appeal, 206; national, 104; professional, 99, 248 Prilles, Wilfredo, Jr., 101–2 primary education See also education principal-agent problem, 35, 43, 82–83, 247 Prinn, Ronald, 180 “Prisoners Dilemma,” 271n2 (chap 14) probabilistic analysis, 149–50 problem definition, 51, 173–86; of conservation issues, 176–77; of defor- estation, 176–77; of desertification, 177–78; of family economic security, 175–76; fragmented, 175; of global warming/climate change, 179–80; incorporating implicit solutions in, 174, 179, 181; of nuclear waste disposal, 178–79; of Philippine food policy, 183; of rural development, 181–82; simplistic, 173; strategies to improve, 174–75; of technical skill shortage, 182–85; weaknesses in, 174, 181–82 procrastination, 26, 28, 30, 67–68 productivity, 6–7, 12–14; improvements in, 21–23, 40; strategies for promoting, 81–83, 99–101, 111–14, 141–45, 180–83, 201–2, 225–26 professional associations, 98 professional identifications, 96–98; among Honduran forestry officials, 96–97, 256 professionalization, 98, 257 profit-sharing, 82 progress: importance of emphasizing achievable, 56, 88, 204, 253–54, 262n1 (chap 4); preference for over early benefits, 48; self-generated, 65–66; sense of, 193 project pipeline, 31, 34, 109–11, 255 prospect theory, 200 prostitution, 20 prototypes, 60–61, 80–81, 90 psychoanalytic theory, 53, 188, 205 psychological rewards, 16, 48, 51, 57–58, 63; strategies based on, 91–105, 194–95, 204, 253, 269n6 psychology, of reinforcement, 91, 93, 98, 101, 135 public goods, 7, 12–13, 19, 23–24; of afforestation, 73–74, 81, 114, 131 See also externalities: positive public policy advocacy, 12–13, 24–25, 36, 94–95, 100, 191 320 Index public-private commissions, 249–50; in Argentina, 249–50; in Chile, 250 public-private partnerships, 85, 235, 241 punishment See penalties pure impatience, 29, 31–32, 38, 42–43, 58, 253, 261n5 Putin, Vladimir, 159 Quadrel, Marilyn, 224–25 Quality Assurance Group (QAG) See World Bank (IBRD) quasi-governmental commissions See public-private commissions Rabin, Matthew, 54, 262n4 (chap 4) radio, 206; community, 256 See also media radon, 224–25 Rao, M Govinda, 22 Rawls, John, 28, 54, 245–46 raw materials, 10, 15 See also mining; petroleum; timber R&D See research and development Read, Daniel, 268n3 reason: instrumental, 53, 149, 196, 205–12; moral, 103 recession: austerity programs for, 260n10; in Thailand, 144–45 See also boom-and-bust cycles rectitude/righteousness: as a value: 51, 91–92, 101–3, 209, 212, 253, 271n2 (chap 15) Redelmeier, Donald, 46 Redfield, Joel, 262n5 referenda, 25, 238 reforestation See forests and forestry regional development banks, 141, 238 See also Asian Development Bank; Caribbean Development Bank; European Investment Bank regulation, 26–27, 241, 245; of Chilean social security, 69; communication, 122; conservation and environmental, 11, 14, 19, 31, 77, 90, 220–22; of foundations, 146; minimum wage, 215, 218; of nuclear industry, 178–79, 223–24; of risky behavior, 11, 20, 70, 78–79 Reilly, John, 180 religion: faith in, 56, 102; institutions of, 7, 20, 24, 87, 102, 122; leaders of, 97, 102; practices of, 102, 121n4 rent-seeking, 21 Repetto, Robert, 108, 268n4 (chap 9) representation, 150; delegate, 238, 270n2; multiple bases of, 238–39; trustee, 238, 270n2 Republic of Korea Ministry of Environment, 244 rescheduling of rewards, logic of strategies involving, 44, 52, 57, 63, 65–66, 78, 88–89, 91, 105 research and development, 7, 21, 30, 81, 84–85, 89, 113–14, 117, 219 See also technology resettlement programs: in Brazil, 15, 30; environmental impact, 30; in India, 15; in Indonesia, 15, 30; problem definition and, 177; in Thailand, 15 resource curse, 56 See also natural resources resource depletion, 10, 14, 30, 71–72, 76, 188, 198, 204; metrics of, 108–9 resource revenues, 119, 137, 252 See also under specific resources “Resources for Freedom” (Paley Commission) (U.S.), 267n7 respect: for nature, 209; as reinforcement for farsightedness, 95–96, 98, 103, 233, 253, 256, 271n2 (chap.15); as a value, 16, 32, 51, 91–92, 99, 187–88, 209 retirement savings See family savings; forced savings; pension/social security systems Index 321 retribution, 205–6 Revenga, Carmen, 74 revenue earmarking, 139–40 See also budgeting reversibility of commitments, 101, 121– 26, 136, 143–45, 178, 271n3 (chap 14) Reynolds, Kim, 158 Richer, Jerrell, 115 Rider, Mark, 22 Riggs, Fred, 271n1 Riots, 159, 198 rising income preference, 48 risk: assessment, 154–55, 213; com munication, 223; levels in develop ing countries, 10; management, 223 Rivera, Jorge, 75 rivers, 138 roads: authorities, 131, 145; in Balkan countries, 259n5; building, 23, 34, 36, 82; deterioration of, 3, 220; environmental impacts of, 19, 164; in Latin America, 5–6, 145; logging, 176; maintenance, 5–6, 9, 131; main tenance funds for, 9, 145–46, 259n5; in Sub-Saharan Africa, 9, 146; in Thailand, 83; toll, 82; in United States, 145; user charges for, 82, 145 Robberson, Margaret, 200 Robbins, Paul, 248 Robertson, John, 223 Rodrik, Dani, 26, 120, 135, 196–97 Rogers, Everett, 40, 80 Rogers, Ronald, 200 Rohrer, Finlo, 222 Rondinelli, Dennis, 169, 265n2, 271n2 (chap 14) Rosenstein-Rodan, Paul, 40 Rosenwald, Julius, 265n6 Rossi, Alice, 32, 95, 264n8 Rossini, Fabrizio, 108 Rotary Clubs, 87–88, 102, 263n13 Rothergatter, Werner, 23, 83–84, 98, 260n14 Rothman, Alexander, 193 routinization of planning, 153 Rowland, Benjamin, 260n11 Roy, Amlan, 260n11 rule of law, 257 “rules of the game,” 55, 61 See also institutional arrangements rural migrants, 4, 177 See also resettlement programs Russ-Eft, Darlene, 264n2 Russia, 2008 Movement in, 159, 166 Rwanda, identifications in, 257 Saad, Mohammed, 81 Sabado, Marilou, 102 safety risks See physical security; wellbeing, as a value Sagoff, Marc, 267n6 Salinas, Carlos (Mexico), 198 Salovey, Peter, 193 Samiei, Hossein, 30 Samuelson, Paul, 192 sanitation, 3, 20, 27, 80, 101, 247 Sapir, Edward, 53 Sarofim, Marcus, 180 Savage, Edward, 149 “Save More Tomorrow” Program (U.S.), 68 Save the Children-United Kingdom, savings program in Vietnam, 68–69 savings: family, 8, 17–19, 66–68, 160, 197; forced, 17–19, 69–71 (see also pension/social security systems); funds, 128, 136–37; groups, 70, 92, 255; interest rates of, 40, 67– 69, 89; Japanese postal savings system for, 67–68; rates, 4, 8, 11, 17, 30, 66–70, 252; Thai programs for, 70, 136; voluntary, 17–19, 66–67, 70 “saving the best for last,” 48, 192 322 Index savoring, 48–49, 52, 187, 194–95, 197–98, 202, 204 scenario writing, 153, 167 Schick, Alan, 168 Schmutzler, Armin, 261n3 Schneider, Stephen, 33, 180 scholarships: Fleischmann Foundation, 147; Rotary, 102 Schon, Donald, 173 school-based feeding programs, school enrollment, 6–8, 113–14, 137, 265n2 See also education school fees, 3, 6, 17–18, 48 See also education Schwartzman, Donna, 158 Schwartzman, Simon, 129 science laboratories, 147 scientific skepticism, 178–79 scientific/technical communication, 191, 199, 209 sea level, 179 See also under specific seas Sears, David, 191 seas, international organizations for, 138 secondary costs See externalities: negative secondary education, 15, 182–83, 202 See also education Secretariat for Eastern African Coastal Area Management, 139–40, 265n8 Secretariat for Futures Studies (Sweden), 162 Secrett, Charles, 30 sectarian conflict, 257 SEEA, 108 self-discipline, 38, 51 See also selfrestraint self-hostaging See hostaging self-identification, 94–95, 209 selfishness, 32; of agents, 35–36; dimensions of, 32–36; as an obstacle to farsightedness, 32–36; specific to developing countries, 41, 43 self-labeling, 209 self-perception theory, 95–96, 232 self-restraint: importance of, 23, 27, 63; instruments and strategies of, 49–50, 119–47, 195, 253 Senegal, bias toward higher education, 260n16 sequencing effect, 193, 197 Serven, L., sexual activity, youth, 4–5, 9, 259n4 sexually-transmitted diseases, 5, 7, 147 Shafer, Robert, 243 Shafik, N., Shaiko, Ronald, 264n5 (chap 5) shanty towns, 3, 80, 252 See also squatters shareholders, 40, 111–12 Sharma, Narendra, 268n4 (chap 9) Sherman, Steven, 158 shifting cultivation, 176, 268n5 shortsightedness, 5–11; causes of, 29–43 shrimp farming, in Southeast Asia, 165 Sidel, Mark, 86 Sierra Club, 94–96, 103, 222, 263n4 Silent Spring (Rachel Carson), 49, 193, 199 Silva, Eduardo, 74 Silvert, Kalman, 43 Simon, Herbert, 36, 44, 50, 150, 213 simulation models, 162, 198–99 Singh, Arjit, 42, 261n9 skill, 16, 65, 256, 263n1, 263n3; acquisition, 3, 26, 95, 99, 113, 183–86; technical, 182–89; vocational, 184–86 slash-and-burn agriculture See shifting cultivation Slovic, Paul, 37, 215, 226, 262n6 (chap 3), 269n1 slums See shanty towns Smith, Adam, 36 Smith, David, 53 Smith, Kenneth, 263n6 smoking See cigarette smoking Index 323 snail darter, 140 sobriety, 20 See also alcohol social capital, 42, 257 social democracy, 238–30 Social Democratic Party (Sweden), 139 social isolation, 233 socialization, 20, 52, 57–58, 91–92, 97, 100, 248, 262n4 social movements, 35, 99–100, 159, 207 social pressure, 13, 27, 234, 236–37 social rewards, 94 See also affection; deference; psychological rewards; respect social safety nets, 17–18, 42, 70, 89, 234–35, 261n8 social security See family savings; forced savings; pension/social security systems social service organizations, 87–88, 102 social welfare, 24; theory, 54 soil erosion, 3–4, 8, 19 Sokolov, Andreai, 180 Solórzano, Rẳl, 108 Somalia, resource scarcity and conflict, 56 Somit, Albert, 51 Soroos, Marvin, 222, 270n6 South Africa, 143 South Asia, 6, 42, 70, 86 Southeast Asia, 6, 35, 165 South Korea, 35, 154, 260n9; decision delays, 244; environmental review system, 244 Southon, J., 180 “spend it or lose it” problem, 129 spotted owl, 140 spreading effect, 193 squatters, 101, 246–47 Sri Lanka: charitable giving tax exemptions, 86–87; Mahaweli dams in, 209; tax evasion in, 86–87 stabilization funds, 121, 128, 137; for Chilean copper, 137 Staiger, Robert, 120 Stakeholder: compliance, 25, 79, 85, 100–101, 107, 134, 156, 222, 251, 255; decision-making participation, 121, 127, 136, 138, 244; negotiations, 60–61, 152–53, 160, 220–21, 238–39, 248–50 See also concertation standard-setting, 98 state enterprises, 96, 78 state monopolies, 78 State Science and Technology Commission (China), 162–63 steel-making, 15 Steelman, Toddi, 165, 169 stock: collapses, 112; grants, 82; markets, 112; options, 82; stock-purchase requirements, 82 stockholders See shareholders Stolton, S., 107 Stone, Peter, 180 Stordal, Frode, 180 strategic impatience, 29, 88 strategic planning See planning Strawson, Peter, 207 street lighting, 80 See also neighborhood improvement subadditive probabilities, 269n5 (chap 12) subjective probability, 149, 214–15 subjectivity, 16, 52, 149, 257, 269 Sub-Saharan Africa, 4–6, 9, 17; road maintenance funds in, 146; SubSaharan Africa Transport Policy Program, subsidies, 12–13, 15, 21, 26, 56, 67, 74, 78–79, 81, 85, 89, 107, 114, 141, 154, 165, 183, 198, 209, 219, 263n6, 263n10; in Costa Rica, 141–42 substantive rationality, 150 subways, 82 See also transportation Sudan, identifications in, 257 Sugden, Robert, 269n6 324 Index sunk cost fallacy, 269n6 sunset provisions, 74, 127 See also termination function superego appeals, 188, 205–12 supermajorities, 127 supervision, 80 See also monitoring supreme courts, 232, 236–38, 254; U.S., 232 Suraswadi, Plodprasop, 260n16 Sustainable Northern Ireland, 143 SUVs, 51 Sweden: budgeting in, 130, 139; Council for Planning and Coordination of Research, 171; Customs Office, 172; Environmental Protection Agency, 163; Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA), 139, 163; futures studies in, 162–63, 171–72; Institute for Futures Studies, 162, 171–72; Knowledge Foundation, 139; Social Democratic Party, 139; Workers’ Fund, 139 swidden agriculture See shifting cultivation Switzerland: origin of firm managing Indonesian customs, 141; remarriage delays, 243 symbols: of identification, 203; institutions as, 128; with positive or negative valances, 203, 220; role in strengthening appeals, 16, 53, 191–92, 195, 203, 253 System of Integrated Envrionmental and Economic Accounts (SEEA), 108 Szekely, Miguel, 4, 30, 259nn1–2 Tabellini, 120 Taiwan: farsighted development in, 56; household savings in, 4, 260n2; industrial planning in, 154; Industrial Technology Research Institute of, 81 Tajikistan, role of women in, 233 Tan, Jeepang, 260n16 Tang, Keli, Tang, Shui Yang, 260n8 tangible rewards, 44, 48, 52, 57–58, 65–90, 105, 134, 232, 242, 253–55 targets, 11, 15, 89, 114–17, 142, 156, 161, 163, 169–70, 196, 222, 265n5, 267n7 Tarschys, Daniel, 130, 265n5 Task Force on Higher Education and Society, 114 taxation: administration, 22; in Argentina, 100–101; avoidance, 22, 85; of charitable contributions, 86–87, 89, 146; in Chile, 100–101; Colombian reform, 85–86; compliance, 22, 100–101; evasion, 22, 24, 85–87, 100–101; exemptions, 12, 21–22, 67, 86–89, 146–47, 219, 249; horizontal equity of burden, 101, 211; land tax, 85–86; rate reduction, 85, 89; reform, 243; of risky behaviors, 20; in U.S., 24, 243; U.S reform, 243 Taylor, Andrea, 51 technical assistance, 19, 80, 180 technical-unit planning, 152–53 See also planning technology, 25, 40, 113, 165; appropri ate, 167; birth control, 18; conservation and environmental, 198–99, 242; forward markets for, 81; incubators, 81; nuclear, 178–79, 223; process, 21, 91, 113, 167, 261n3; product, 113, 167, 261n3; promotion in China, 161; promotion in Sweden, 139; promotion in Taiwan, 81; promotion in Trinidad and Tobago, 202; uncertainty about, 178–79 See also research and development telecommunications, 23, 113, 201 television, 206 See also media Tellico Dam (U.S.), 140 temporal discounting See time discounting Index 325 termination function, 78, 111, 125, 127–28, 131–32, 137, 148, 150, 158, 185, 186 See also sunset provisions term limits, 239–40; in Mexico, 239 terracing, in China, tertiary education, 15, 114, 182–84, 209, 260n16 See also education Tetlock, Philip, 220 Tetrault, Steve, 178 Thailand: and Asian financial crisis, 155; boom-and-bust cycles, 112; Community-Based Family Planning Service, 71, 107; cultural restoration, 208; education ministries, 133; family planning, 70–71; household savings in, 4, 259n2; IMF agreement, 144–45; Mekong River Basin cooperation, 166; “One Baht a Day” savings program, 7, 92–93, 136, 255; penalties for poaching, 260n16; Phuket cultural restoration, 208; recession in, 144–45; resettlement programs, 15; shrimp farming in, 165; transport financing, 83 Thaler, Richard, 68, 194 Thirsk, Wayne, 22 Thørgerson, John, 75 Three Mile Island, 233 tillage techniques, timber: bribes to harvest, 35; harvesting, 15, 72–73, 137, 176–77, 184, 196, 199, 268n5; insurance, 73, 89; in Malaysia, 268n5; markets, 19, 72–74; maximum sustainable yield for logging, 97, 196, 199; revenues, 3, 175; in U.S., 140, 169–70 See also forests and forestry time discounting, 30–32, 46–50, 52, 68, 187, 189–90, 252–54, 261n5 (chap 2), 262n1, 269n8; declining, 46–48; factors influencing, 52, 57, 60, 63, 192–96, 198, 200–204; hyperbolic, 46–48, 68, 192, 262n1; negative, 48; psychology of, 187, 202; rate of, 30, 31–32, 37, 39; reducing, 192–96; uniform rate of, 30, 192–93 time horizons, 11, 44, 109, 150; for research and development, 81; impact of availability heuristic on, 214; impact of crisis on, 191–92; impact of decision processes on, 241; impact of discounting on, 269; impact of planning on, 156, 208; impact of problem definitions on, 173, 177; impact on uncertainty, 38; of business managers, 81, 156, 261n3, 261n6; of economic plans, 169 time perspective See time discounting; time horizons Tironi, Ernesto, 137 Tokage Typhoon (Japan), 78–79 Tolbert, Caroline, 53 toll roads, 82–83 See also roads Tollison, Robert, 21 tort suits, 84–85, 90 Tosi, Joseph, 108 tourism, 19, 25, 75–76 Toye, John, 168 traditional crops, See also farming transactional leadership, 232 Trans Alaska Pipeline, 140 transformative leadership, 232 transparency, 59, 235, 264n7 transportation, 3, 5, 23, 34, 38, 76, 82–84, 101, 145–46, 164, 180–81, 201, 247; in Thailand, 83; in Trinidad and Tobago, 201; in U.S., 145–46, 266n12 treaties See international agreements trees See forests and forestry Trevor-Roberts, Edwin, 65 Trinidad and Tobago, 201–2 troop commitments, 135 trustee representation, 238–39, 270n2 trustees, foundation, 148; of NGOs, 235; of Swedish environmental agencies, 139 326 Index trust funds, 121, 129–30, 148; infrastructure, 130, 145–46, 266n12 Tumbaga, Letty, 102 Turkey, European Union candidacy, 208 tutoring, 35 Tversky, Amos, 37, 200, 215, 218, 221, 226, 262n6, 269n1, 269n3, 270n5 2008 Movement (Russia), 159, 166 Udry, Christopher, uncertainty: of policy impacts, 195; and probabilities, 149 UNDP See United Nations: Development Programme (UNDP) UNESCO, 6–7 UNESCO-Habitat, 225 UNICEF, 233 unions, 7, 12, 40, 120, 142, 246; Argentine, 144, 153–54, 249–50; Chilean, 250; state-sector, in Costa Rica, 142 United Kingdom Cabinet Strategy Unit, 155, 266n3 United Nations, 141, 163, 166–67; Children’s and Education Fund (UNICEF), 233; Development Programme (UNDP), 8, 17, 138; Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), 225; Economic and Social Council, 167; Educational, Social and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), 6–7; Environment Programme (UNEP), 79, 138, 167; Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 4, 96, 259n3; Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), 76, 221; General Assembly, 167; Habitat Best Practices Database, 225; Human Settlements Programme, 225; Office on Drugs and Crime, 5; Programme on HIV/AIDS, 5; Regional Seas Programmes, 138; Statistical Commission, 108 United States: Alaska Pipeline, 140; alcohol consumption, 97; budgeting in, 130; charitable contributions in, 86; conservation and environmental protection, 94–96, 140; constitution, 132, 245; decision delay mechanisms, 243–44; disability services, 267n3; divided government in, 270n1 (chap 14); elections, 124–25; energy, 178–79, 210–11; federal petroleum reserves, 267n7; forests, 140, 169–70; foundations, 131, 139, 146–48; Great Lakes cooperation with Canada, 138; land, 130–31; multistage policy making, 244–45; nuclear waste disposal issue, 140, 178–79, 223–24; petroleum consumption, 210; planning, 168–70, 208; regulatory commissions, 122–23; roads, 145; savings programs, 68; short-sighted corporate behavior, 111–12; Supreme Court, 232; taxation, 24; transportation, 145–46, 266n12; Treasury bonds, 261n5; water regulation, 242 university education, 48, 146, 182–84, 209, 260n16 See also academic institutions University of Nevada, Reno, 147 Urban Control Areas (Japan), 78–70 urbanization, 18, 71, 78–80, 177, 191–92, 225, 246–47 urgency: of appeals, 28, 191; conveyed by communications, 196–97, 206, 241–42; of problems, 173, 220 Uruguay, multi-year budgeting in, 142 U.S Agency for International Development, 125, 142, 182 U.S Department of Energy, 179 user fees, 23, 82–83, 139–40 user rights, 39, 77, 138, 165, 248; customary, 177, 268n7 U.S Federal Highway Trust Fund, 145 U.S Forest Service, 169–70 Index 327 U.S House of Representatives, 266n12 Utting, Peter, 268n7 Valdez, Alberto, 263n7 valence of communications, 191, 193–94, 203 Valencia (Spain), irrigation, valuation, 60, 152–53, 157–58, 165, 168, 267n5; of Colombian land, 85; of environmental amenities, 165; pitfalls of, 165; value-added argument, 31 van der Pligt, Mariette, 39 Vásquez, Alexis, 108 Vegh, Carlos, 260n10 veil of ignorance, 28, 54, 245–46 Veravaidya, Mechai, 71, 107 Verscheure, Hernán, 74 veto power, 127 Vietnam: budget allocation formula, 123; distortions in locally provided information, 265n2; Mekong River Basin cooperation, 166; microenterprise in, 68–69; savings program in, 68–69 Villalobos, Carlos, 108 Vincent, Jeffrey, 74 violence, 246; valued as a norm, 51 “Vision 2020”(Trinidad and Tobago), 201–2 visualization of consequences, 47–48, 158–59, 167, 194, 197 vocational training, 21, 36, 119, 184, 186 Vreeland, James, 125, 260n11 vulnerability, 11, 14, 18, 26, 29, 33–34, 39–42, 45, 48, 55, 58, 119, 122, 125, 129, 165, 191, 232–35; agency, 130, 138; approaches to reduce, 60–61, 65–66, 69–70, 72–73, 78, 106, 115–16, 236–38, 242–43, 248–50, 253–57; of earmarked funds, 146; environmental, 162, 176–77; and land reform, 86; of leaders, 229–32; of planning, 171; of resettled people, 180; and taxes, 85–86 Walton, John, 268n5 Wang, Chien, 180 Wang, Jiann Chyuan, 154 water, 138, 164; irrigation, 77; leakage into Yucca Mountain, 178; pollution, 19, 77, 108, 242; pricing, 38; regulation in United States, 242; sharing in Valencia, Spain, 9; in Trinidad and Tobago, 201 Watson, Vincente, 108 Webster, Mort, 180 Wechsler, Henry, 97 welfare values, 65, 88, 91, 232, 263n1 Welford, Richard, 263n8 well-being, as a value, 11, 13, 16, 65, 125, 263n1 Wells, Michael, 108 Wertenbroch, Klaus, 194 West Asia, drug use in, Western Europe: concertation in, 267n6; education in, 6; financing Thai transportation system, 83 “we-they” framing, 195 Wikramanayake, Arittha, 86 Wildavsky, Aaron, 129, 168 Wilensky, Harold, 98 wildlife, 260n15 See also conservation Wilkie, David, 73, 268n7 willingness to accept (valuation concept), 158 willingness to pay (valuation concept), 158 Willis, Kenneth, 267n5 Wilson, Timothy, 217 “winner-take-all” situations, 46 Witte, Kim, 269n5 (chap 11) women, role of, 162; in family planning, 93, 107; in household budget management, 233; in managing loans, 256 Wong, James, 268n5 Wong, Jennifer, 73 Wood, Geof, 42 wood products manufacturing, 15, 75–76 328 Index Woodward, Richard, 108 Woog, Robert, 177 worker productivity, worker training See vocational training “work or pay” agreements, 141 World Bank (IBRD): administration of Global Environment Facility, 76; and Argentina, 144; austerity programs, 260n11; and Costa Rica, 142, 238; Independent Evaluation Group, 6; loans or grants with national governments, 125; and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 163; Operations Evaluation Department, 109; praise for Mexican education program, 9; problematic projects, 109–11, 164; promotion of community self-help, 141; promotion of hurricane and earthquake insurance, 79; promotion of sustainable infrastructure, 5–6; promotion of timber futures markets, 73; Quality Assurance Group (QAG), 109–11, 164, 255, 264n5 (chap 6); in Sub-Saharan Africa, 146 World Commission on Environment and Development (“Brundtland Commission”), 166–67 World Health Organization (WHO), 5, 259n4 Xiubin, He, Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site (Nevada, U.S.), 178–79 See also nuclear energy Zaman, Iftekhar, 86 Zero Based Budgeting (ZBB) (U.S.), 130 Zhang, Xinbao, Zietlow, Gunter,