This page intentionally left blank CLIMATE EXTREMES AND SOCIETY The past few decades have brought extreme weather and climate events to the forefront of societal concerns Ordinary citizens, industry, and governments are concerned about the apparent increase in the frequency of weather and climate events causing extreme, and in some instances, catastrophic, impacts Climate Extremes and Society focuses on the recent and potential future consequences of weather and climate extremes for different socioeconomic sectors The book also examines actions that may enable society to better respond and adapt to climate variability, regardless of its source It provides examples of the impact of climate and weather extremes on society – how these extremes have varied in the past, and how they might change in the future – and of the types of effort that will help society adapt to potential future changes in climate and weather extremes This review volume is divided into two sections: one examining the evidence for recent and projected changes in extremes of weather and climate events, and the other assessing the impacts of these events on society and on the insurance industry Chapters examine a variety of climatic extremes using both the analysis of observational data and climate model simulations Other chapters highlight recent innovative efforts to develop institutional mechanisms and incentives for integrating knowledge on extremes and their economic impacts The book will appeal to all scientists, engineers, and policymakers who have an interest in the effects of climate extremes on society D R H E N R Y F D I A Z is a Research Meteorologist in the Earth System Research Laboratory at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) He has worked on a variety of climate issues at NOAA over the past 15 years, particularly the impact of climatic variation on water resources of the western United States He is recognized as an expert on the EI Nino ˜ – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and coedited EI Nino: ˜ Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation, also published by Cambridge University Press (1992) D R R I C H A R D M U R N A N E is the Program Manager for the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) and a Senior Research Scientist at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS), where he leads RPI’s efforts to transform science into knowledge for assessing risk from natural hazards Dr Murnane’s own research focuses on tropical cyclones, climate variability, and the global carbon cycle Before joining the RPI and BIOS in 1997, Dr Murnane was on the research staff of Princeton University in the Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences CLIMATE EXTREMES AND SOCIETY Edited by HENRY F DIAZ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, USA RICHARD J MURNANE Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, USA CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521870283 © Cambridge University Press 2008 This publication is in copyright Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press First published in print format 2008 ISBN-13 978-0-511-39847-6 eBook (EBL) ISBN-13 978-0-521-87028-3 hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate Contents List of contributors Foreword page vii Roger S Pulwarty xi xiii Preface The significance of weather and climate extremes to society: an introduction Henry F Diaz and Richard J Murnane I Defining and modeling the nature of weather and climate extremes Definition, diagnosis, and origin of extreme weather and climate events 11 David B Stephenson Observed changes in the global distribution of daily temperature and precipitation extremes 24 David R Easterling The spatial distribution of severe convective storms and an analysis of their secular changes 35 Harold E Brooks and Nikolai Dotzek Regional storm climate and related marine hazards in the Northeast Atlantic 54 Hans von Storch and Ralf Weisse Extensive summer hot and cold extremes under current and possible future climatic conditions: Europe and North America Alexander Gershunov and Herve´ Douville 74 Beyond mean climate change: what climate models tell us about future climate extremes 99 Claudia Tebaldi and Gerald A Meehl v vi Contents Tropical cyclones and climate change: revisiting recent studies at GFDL Thomas R Knutson and Robert E Tuleya II Impacts of weather and climate extremes Extreme climatic events and their impacts: examples from the Swiss Alps Martin Beniston 120 145 147 The impact of weather and climate extremes on coral growth M James C Crabbe, Emma L L Walker, and David B Stephenson 165 10 Forecasting US insured hurricane losses Thomas H Jagger, James B Elsner, and Mark A Saunders 189 11 Integrating hurricane loss models with climate models Charles C Watson, Jr., and Mark E Johnson 209 12 An exploration of trends in normalized weather-related catastrophe losses Stuart Miller, Robert Muir-Wood, and Auguste Boissonnade 225 13 An overview of the impact of climate change on the insurance industry Andrew Dlugolecki 248 14 Toward a comprehensive loss inventory of weather and climate hazards Susan L Cutter, Melanie Gall, and Christopher T Emrich 279 15 The catastrophe modeling response to Hurricane Katrina Robert Muir-Wood and Patricia Grossi 296 16 The Risk Prediction Initiative: a successful science–business partnership for analyzing natural hazard risk Richard J Murnane and Anthony Knap Index The colored plates will be found between pages 144 and 145 320 337 Contributors M Beniston Climate Research, University of Geneva, chemin de Drize, CH-1227 Carouge, GE, Switzerland A Boissonnade Risk Management Solutions (RMS), 7015 Gateway Boulevard, Newark, CA 94560, USA H Brooks NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, 1313 Halley Circle, Norman, OK 73069, USA M J C Crabbe Luton Institute of Research in the Applied Natural Sciences, Faculty of Creative Arts, Technologies and Science, University of Bedfordshire, Park Square, Luton LU1 3JU, UK S L Cutter Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA H F Diaz NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, USA A Dlugolecki 17 Craigie Place, Perth PH2 0BB, Scotland, UK vii viii List of contributors N Dotzek DLR-IPA, Department of Atmospheric Dynamics, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Wessling, Germany H Douville Centre National de Recherches Me´te´orologiques, Me´te´o-France, 42 Avenue G Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse cedex 1, France D R Easterling National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, 151 Patton Ave, Asheville, NC 28801, USA J B Elsner Department of Geography, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA C T Emrich Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA M Gall Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA A Gershunov Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224, USA P Grossi Risk Management Solutions (RMS), 7015 Gateway Boulevard, Newark, CA 94560, USA T H Jagger Department of Geography, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA M E Johnson Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816-2370, USA ... we assess the impacts of Climate Extremes and Society, ed H F Diaz and R J Murnane Published by Cambridge University Press # Cambridge University Press 2008 2 H F Diaz and R J Murnane these events... extreme events will also be presented Climate Extremes and Society, ed H F Diaz and R J Murnane Published by Cambridge University Press # Cambridge University Press 2008 12 D Stephenson 1.2 Definition... weather and climate events causing extreme, and in some instances, catastrophic, impacts Climate Extremes and Society focuses on the recent and potential future consequences of weather and climate extremes