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HOW TO COMBAT RECES SION How to Combat Recession Stimulus without Debt Laurence Seidman 1 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America © Oxford University Press 2018 All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Seidman, Laurence S., author Title: How to combat recession : stimulus without debt / Laurence Seidman Description: New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2018] Identifiers: LCCN 2017053675| ISBN 9780190462178 (hardcover : alk paper) | ISBN 9780190462192 (epub) Subjects: LCSH: Recessions—United States | Monetary policy—United States Classification: LCC HB3743 S45 2018 | DDC 339.5/20973—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017053675 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 Printed by Sheridan Books, Inc., United States of America CONTENTS Introduction | How Would a Benevolent Ruler Combat a Recession? | What Is Stimulus without Debt? | 17 Do Tax Rebates Work in a Recession? | 58 What about Other Kinds of Fiscal Stimulus? | 97 Would Stimulus without Debt Be Inflationary? | 127 Would Stimulus without Debt Weaken the Fed’s Balance Sheet? | 137 Would Stimulus without Debt Undermine the Fed’s Independence? | 150 Can’t Monetary Stimulus Overcome a Severe Recession? | 157 10 Can Stimulus without Debt Be Used by Other Countries? | 173 11 What Have Others Written about Stimulus without Debt? | 179 v vi Contents 12 Can Stimulus without Debt Combat Secular Stagnation? | 195 13 Would Stimulus without Debt Work in a Plausible Model? | 200 14 Are We Ready for the Next Severe Recession? | 211 R EF E R E NC E S | I NDEX | 227 221 HOW TO COMBAT RECES SION Chapter 1 Introduction Are we ready to combat the next severe recession? We can be, but we’re not A severe recession always involves a plunge in aggregate demand for goods and services that compels producers to sharply cut back production and employment To recover from the recession, aggregate demand must be boosted all the way back up to normal Economic analysis and experience shows that waiting for the free market to reverse the plunge in aggregate demand takes much too long—usually half a decade to a full decade Monetary stimulus—cutting interest rates to zero—is much too weak to induce a huge boost in demand because experience shows that sensible consumers and business managers aren’t willing to go deeper in debt by borrowing to spend in a severe recession Fortunately, a huge boost in demand can be achieved by a large fiscal stimulus—a temporary large increase in tax rebates for households, federal grants to state and local governments, tax credits to partly reimburse firms for purchases of capital goods, and government spending on infrastructure maintenance projects .. .HOW TO COMBAT RECES SION How to Combat Recession Stimulus without Debt Laurence Seidman 1 Oxford University Press is a department... implemented without debt and without causing inflation Chapter 3 What Is Stimulus without Debt? Stimulus without debt is a policy that would increase aggregate demand for goods and services in a recession. .. government debt Without the stimulus- without- debt plan proposed in this book, a fiscal stimulus large enough to combat a severe recession would cause a large increase in government debt and
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