Tanzania the path to prosperity

Tanzania Africa: Policies For Prosperity Series Series Editors Christopher S Adam and Paul Collier For the first time in more than a generation, sustained economic growth has been achieved across Africa—despite the downturn in global economic fortunes since 2008—and in many countries these gains have been realized through policy reforms driven by the decisive leadership of a new generation of economic policy makers The process of reform is continuous, however, and the challenge currently facing this new generation is how to harness these favourable gains in macroeconomic stability and turn them into a coherent strategy for sustainable growth and poverty reduction over the coming decades These challenges are substantial and encompass the broad remit of economic policy Each volume in this series brings leading scholars into the policy arena to examine, in a rigorous but accessible manner, the key economic challenges and policy options facing policy makers on the continent BOOKS PUBLISHED IN THIS SERIES Kenya: Policies for Prosperity Edited by Christopher S Adam, Paul Collier, and Njuguna Ndung’u Zambia: Building Prosperity from Resource Wealth Edited by Christopher S Adam, Paul Collier, and Michael Gondwe Tanzania: The Path to Prosperity Edited by Christopher S Adam, Paul Collier, and Benno Ndulu Tanzania The Path to Prosperity Edited by Christopher S Adam, Paul Collier, and Benno Ndulu Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP, United Kingdom Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries © the various contributors 2017 The moral rights of the authors have been asserted First Edition published in 2017 Impression: All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Control Number: 2016941486 ISBN 978–0–19–870481–2 Printed in Great Britain by Clays Ltd, St Ives plc Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and for information only Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials contained in any third party website referenced in this work Series Preface Policies for Prosperity Since the mid-1990s the economic prospects for Africa have been transformed The change has been uneven: some countries remain mired in conflict and economic stagnation But for many macroeconomic stability has been achieved—even through the global financial crisis and its aftermath– and farreaching policy reforms have been put in place For these countries, growth prospects in the first quarter of the twenty-first century are much brighter than at any time during the final quarter of the last century But converting good prospects into sustained growth and decisive poverty reduction requires a degree of good luck, good policy formulation, resources, and a lot of good economic management For policy improvements to be sustained they must be underpinned by more fundamental shifts in political power; sectional interests ruling through patronage must be defeated by the public interest And for the shift in power to be decisive, the achievements of individual reformers must be locked in through the development of effective institutions in both the public and private sectors The challenges are formidable: they range beyond the conventional agenda of macroeconomic management, infrastructure provision and the improvement of the investment climate For example, land policy, which has usually been left dormant, will need to be rethought in the face of high population growth rates and rapid urbanization; trade and industrial policies will need to be rethought so as to engage more effectively with changing global opportunities; and the continent will need to develop adaptive policies in the face of rapid climate change Many of the successes of recent decades have been wrought by the progressive leadership of a new generation of policy makers To build on these successes, this same generation needs both the support of, and restraint by, an informed and engaged society This is the fundamental philosophy of this series: informed societies are strong societies If citizens are to hold governments to account they require information, debate and dispassionate analysis on the challenges and choices confronting countries and their people This is especially relevant in the realm of economic policy where path-dependency is powerful and the consequences of choices are far-reaching and long-lasting Series Preface In many industrialized economies there is a long tradition of informed debate and analysis sustained in large measure by high-quality financial journalism In Africa, by contrast, while a dynamic and often fearless free press is now quite widely established, it still lacks a tradition of solid, durable, and independent writing on economic policy As a result local debate is too often ill-informed or is perceived to be driven by the agendas, and chequebooks, of sectional interests and international organizations There is now considerable academic research on the issues that matter for Africa and it could potentially inform Africa’s debates But to date it has been disconnected from them Increasingly, academics write only for other academics rather than to inform the public With this series of books we seek to build bridges between the evidence from solid research and contemporary policy debates Each book aims to bring together the best international and domestic scholars with policy makers working on economic policy issues across the continent Throughout, our contributors are required to write with clarity, avoiding academic jargon, but equally avoiding advocacy Focusing on the key issues that matter for a society, each chapter aims to leave readers better able to draw their own conclusions about important choices vi Acknowledgements This book is the outcome of an active collaboration amongst a wide range of scholars, officials and policy makers working on the economics of Tanzania Its origins lie in the close relationship forged over the last eight years between the Governor and staff of the Bank of Tanzania and the International Growth Centre (IGC) The IGC, of which two of us are members, is an international research network partnership hosted by the London School of Economics and the University of Oxford, and funded by the UK Department for International Development The IGC’s core objective is to promote sustainable growth in developing countries by providing demand-led policy advice based on frontier research The Bank of Tanzania’s commitment to promoting researchinformed policy, both within its own domain and also across the whole of the economic policy spectrum in Tanzania, has made it a natural partner for the IGC and, indeed, many of the chapters in this book emerge directly from work done under the aegis of the IGC and in close collaboration with the Bank We are particularly grateful to the Bank for hosting a highly productive authors’ writing workshop in Stone Town, Zanzibar, in June 2015 We thank the IGC in London for its financial support to the project and the current and former staff of the IGC-Tanzania office in Dar es Salaam—Pantaleo Kessy, Anne Laski, Joshua Chipman, Claire Lwehabura, Benjamin Langford, Angela Ambroz, Ambassador Charles Mutalemwa, and our non-resident Country Director, John Page—for their support and assistance as this project has evolved As the Series Editors stress in their preface to this volume, the fundamental idea underpinning the Policies for Prosperity series is that an informed society is a strong society This principle is central to the new dynamism in Tanzania and it has been our privilege to have been able to draw so deeply on the talent and insights from a wonderful set of authors based in the universities, research groups, institutes, think-tanks, and official institutions in Tanzania We thank all these institutions for their commitment to the book We also extend a special note of thanks to the Honourable Minister for Finance and Planning, Dr Philip Mpango, who was an important supporter of this project during his time as Executive Secretary of the President’s Office Planning Commission Acknowledgements Our final thanks go to our colleague, Rose Page, for her superb work behind the scenes in managing the process of turning our often chaotic contributions into a volume of which we can all be proud Rose has been our managing editor since the inception of this series It has been a great pleasure working with her and, as with the previous volumes, her guidance, support, and unfailing good humour has made our jobs as editors immeasurably easier viii Contents List of Figures List of Tables List of Boxes List of Abbreviations List of Contributors Introduction: Productivity, Organizations, and Connectivity Christopher S Adam, Paul Collier, and Benno Ndulu The Building Blocks towards Tanzania’s Prosperity: Lessons from Looking Back, and the Way Forward Benno Ndulu and Nkunde Mwase xi xv xvii xix xxv Managing Hydrocarbon Resources Mark Henstridge and Dennis Rweyemamu 49 Transforming Dar es Salaam into a City That Works Paul Collier and Patricia Jones 86 Trade, Logistics Infrastructure, and Regional Integration Charles Kunaka, Olivier Hartmann, Gaël Raballand, and Rukia Shamte Agricultural Transformation in Tanzania: Linking Rural to Urban through Domestic Value Chains Douglas Gollin and Radhika Goyal 105 132 Unlocking Tanzania’s Manufacturing Potential Margaret McMillan, John Page, and Samuel Wangwe 151 Building a Skills Agenda towards Productive Employment Mahjabeen Haji and Jacques Morisset 170 Growth and Poverty: A Pragmatic Assessment and Future Prospects Channing Arndt, Vincent Leyaro, Kristin Mahrt, and Finn Tarp 190 Financial Sector Development & Financial Inclusion and regulatory reforms that are proactive, to embrace an enabling environment for the private sector at the same time as enhancing financial stability to boost confidence in the sector overall This will require changes in the bureaucratic culture of government institutions that support the financial sector, and a concerted effort to enhance capacity in regulating a dynamic industry Notes 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Bank of Tanzania (2011) Bikki and Joselito (2003) Bank of Tanzania, Directorate of Banking Supervision Annual Report, 2013 Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (2014) TIRA 2013 Annual Report The Economist Intelligence Unit conducts surveys for enabling regulatory environment for financial inclusion known as the ‘Global Microscope: The Enabling Environment for Financial Inclusion’ Ministry of Finance (2000) is finalizing issuance of a revised National Microfinance Policy NHC Strategic Plan 2010–15 Tanzania, Burundi, Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe SADC (South Africa Development Community) (2006) ‘Protocol on Finance and Investment SADC, GIZ, and FinMark Trust (2011: 9) We acknowledge FinMark Trust for permission to use this information; however, FinMark Trust is not liable for any analysis or interpretations that we have made in the use of the information from the 2011 Baseline Study Article (a) of the EAMU Protocol requires Partner States to fully implement Common Market Protocol by 2015 as one of the pre-requisites for a Monetary Union The EAC provided a report on its 18th Ordinary Meeting of the Monetary Affairs Committee that highlighted the directives and status of implementation by member states The EAC provided a report highlighting achievements, challenges and way forward for the Monetary Affairs Committee References Bank of Tanzania (2011) ‘Tanzania Mainland’s 50 Years of Independence: A Review of the Role and Functions of the Bank of Tanzania (1961—2011)’, Bank of Tanzania, Dar es Salaam 289 Natu Mwamba, Nangi Massawe, and Kennedy Komba Bank of Tanzania (2014) Quarterly Economic Bulletin, December 2014 Bikki, R and Joselito, G (2003) ‘Microfinance Regulation in Tanzania: Implications for Development and Performance of the Industry Africa Region’, Working Paper Series No 51, June, World Bank, Washington, D.C DSE (Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange) (2014) Quarterly Update, Issue No.63, December, DSE, Dar es Salaam EAC (East African Community) (2009) ‘Monetary Affairs Committee Achievements, Challenges and Way Forward (1998–2008)’, EAC, Arusha EAC (2015) ‘Report of the 18th Ordinary Meeting of the Monetary Affairs Committee’ EAC, Arusha Economist Intelligence Unit (2014) ‘Global Microscope 2014: The Enabling Environment for Financial Inclusion’, New York FinMark Trust, FSDT (2014) ‘FinScope Survey, Tanzania’ Lucky, Y and Eno, I (2013) ‘Financial Sector Reforms in Bank Ownership and Its Impact on Service Quality Case of Commercial Banks in Tanzania’, Journal of Business Administration and Management Sciences Research 2(12)(December): 335–51 Available at: (accessed 12 June 2016) Ministry of Finance (2000) ‘National Microfinance Policy’, Dar es Salaam Narayan, D (1997) Voices of the Poor: Poverty and Social Capital in Tanzania, vol ‘Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Studies and Monographs Series 20’ Washington, D.C.: The World Bank Ndulu, B J and Mutalemwa, C K (2002) ‘Tanzania at the Turn of the Century’, Background Papers and Statistics, World Bank, Washington, D.C Nord, R., Sobolev, Y.,Dunn, D., Hajdenberg, A.,Hobdari, N., Maziad, S., and Roudet, S (2009) ‘Tanzania: The Story of an African Transition’, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C Robert, C and Connor, P S (2008) ‘Pursuing Efficiency While Maintaining Outreach: Bank Privatization in Tanzania’, Policy Research Working Paper 4804, World Bank Washington, D.C SADC (South Africa Development Community) (2006) ‘Protocol on Finance and Investment’ Available at: SADC, GIZ (Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit), and FinMark Trust (2011) ‘Striving for Regional Integration: Baseline Study on the Implementation of the SADC Protocol on Finance and Investment Available at: (last accessed 12 June 2016) SSRA (Social Security Regulatory Authority) (2013) ‘Annual Report, 2013’, SSRA, Dar es Salaam TIRA (Tanzania Insurance Regulatory Authority) (2014) ‘Annual Insurance Market Performance Report for Year Ended 31 December 2013’, TIRA, Dar es Salaam Zetterli, P (2015) ‘Tanzania: Africa’s Other Mobile Money Juggernaut’, CGAP blog Available at: (accessed 12 June 2016) 290 Index 20,000 Plots Project 99–100 Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD) 217, 222 African Union 139 agent banking 281 agricultural sector climate employment 132, 144, 152 growth 40–1, 172 Kikwete regime 25, 26, 27, 28–30 middle-high-income country, moving to a 43 Mkapa regime 22, 24–5 Mwinyi regime 17, 19, 21 Nyerere regime 11, 12, 13, 14, 46n19 poverty 203–4 productivity 132–7, 152 prosperity, opportunities for 36 skills agenda 185–6 transformation 132–4, 147–50 emerging urban demand 140–3 policy history and sectoral background 137–40 policy implications 145–7 production trends and challenges 134–7 rural–urban supply chains 143–5 trends 33 youth employment 173, 174 Agricultural Sector Development Programme (ASDP) 139, 146 agro-processing 38, 41, 43, 143–4, 155 aid and growth 39 Mkapa regime 22–3, 24 Mwinyi regime 18, 19, 20 Nyerere regime 15 Official Development Assistance 62 trends 34 apprenticeships 181 Arab Spring 27 Arusha Declaration 2–3, 13, 242 Assab, Eritrea 122 Attorney General 68 Australia 44, 64 authorizing environment, hydrocarbon resources 67, 68–9 Bagamoyo 127, 129n6 balance of payments 16, 69–70, 75 Bangladesh 157 Banking and Financial Institutions Act (BAFIA) 1991 273 banking sector developments 272, 273, 275 financial inclusion 279, 280–1 payment systems 278, 279 policy and regulatory reforms 273–4 Kikwete regime 30 Mkapa regime 22, 24 monetary policy monetary/fiscal accord 242 practical challenges 257, 259–60 Nyerere regime 13 privatization 260, 273–4 see also Bank of Tanzania; financial sector Bank of Mexico 254 Bank of Tanzania (BoT) Central Depository System 276 digital financial services 286–7 financial inclusion 271, 280 financial sector development 272 banking sector 273 non-bank sector 274, 275–6 payment systems 278 regional integration 288 independence 9, 261–2 legislative mandate 242, 245, 265–6 Mkapa regime 22 monetary policy 241 East African Monetary Union 261 natural gas sector 263 reserve-money programming 244, 247–60, 267n10 Mwinyi regime 19 Nyerere regime 11 Index Bank of Tanzania (BoT) (cont.) and Tanzania Insurance Regulatory Authority, regulatory cooperation between 287 Bank of Tanzania Acts 1965 265 1978 Amendments 242, 265–6, 267n7 1995 242, 245, 266, 274 2006 242, 262, 266, 267n7 Basic Industrial Strategy (BIS) 155 BG Group 52, 56, 61 Big Results Now (BRN) initiative 26, 30, 39, 106, 159 agricultural sector 140 education 179 bond issues 34 Bosnia Herzegovina 35 Brazil 44 bribery 18 budget constraint 231 Bulyanhulu Mine 24 Buni technology hub 184–5 bureaucracies, effective 3–4, Burundi Dar es Salaam Port 39, 108, 109, 116 gateway ports 108 liquefied petroleum gas 158 logistics infrastructure 105 Northern Corridor 123 population levels 106 revenue mobilization 223 Tanzania’s influence 122 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) 101 Cambodia 45n10, 156 Canada 15 capital account 221, 261 capital markets developments 274, 275–7 Nyerere regime 12 outlook 287 Capital Markets and Securities Act 1994 274 Capital Markets and Securities Authority (CMSA) 274, 287 capital stock fiscal reforms 217 Kikwete regime 28 Mwinyi regime 17, 21 cassava 136 Central Corridor 105, 106, 123, 124, 128–9n1 Central Corridor Transit and Transport Facilitation Agency 105 China aid 15, 45n10 Bagamoyo port development 129n6 development theory 27 economy 32, 34, 63–4 292 funding of railway link between Tanzania and Zambia 106 gas demand 64 global aggregate supply imports from Tanzania 221 investment in Tanzania 27, 34 Logistics Performance Index 158 meetings between officials and business owners 165 productivity 42 Shanghai 90 total factor productivity 40 civil service 19 climate 1, 12, 27, 137 coal 37 Coega, South Africa 113 coffee 133, 135, 136 contract farming 185 prices 12, 14 Commodity Exchange Act 2015 287 commodity prices investment challenges 41 Mkapa regime 23 trends 14, 33, 34 Common Market in East and Southern Africa (COMESA) 120 communications 30, 40 competition Dar es Salaam Port 107–8, 110–12 financial sector development 273 and growth 39 logistics infrastructure 122, 123 Mkapa regime 21 trucking industry 147 urban productivity 89 Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 139 compressed natural gas (CNG) 159–60 connectivity 102 firm productivity 92–6 land markets and credible planning 98–101 urban productivity 88–92 construction phase, hydrocarbon projects 56, 57 jobs 69–70, 71, 73 construction sector 12, 38, 73 Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) 136 consumer price index (CPI) 192, 246–7, 248 consumption 21, 30 consumption cities 93–4, 175 container traffic, Dar es Salaam Port 106–7, 108, 109, 110–11, 112 employment effect 126 operational challenges 113–15, 116, 117–18 revenues/costs 124–5 Index contract farming 185–6 Cooperative and Rural Development Bank (CRDB) 273 corporate income tax (CIT) 58–9, 68, 75 corruption 19, 24, 25, 147, 229 Côte d’Ivoire 35 cotton 185 country risk premia 217 credit market 135, 137, 165, 167 current account 221 Kikwete regime 28 Mkapa regime 21, 24 Mwinyi regime 21 Nyerere regime 16 policy recommendations 41 customs clearance times 157–8 Cybercrime and Data Protection Act 2015 279 Dar Corridor 129n1, 129n7 Dar es Salaam 102–3 banking sector 273 Benjamin William Mkapa SEZ 157 connectivity policies 98–101 and productivity 90–1, 94–6 food consumption 141–2 GDP 88, 97 hydrocarbon resources 49, 54 livability 97–8 Mtwara–Dar es Salaam pipeline project 159 population density 90, 99 population levels 86, 88, 97, 175 Port costs/benefits 128 expansion 129n6 and growth 39 importance 10 investment in future competitiveness 126–7 logistics infrastructure 105–7, 128–9n1 manufacturing sector 158–9 obstacles 112–19 prosperity, opportunities for 35–6 timeline of key events 128 traffic comparisons and trends 107–12 Stock Exchange (DSE) 274, 276, 287, 288 taxes 88, 97 transport 90, 91 debt 219–21 challenges 41 financing 215, 218, 235–6 forgiveness 22–3, 24 and growth 39 hydrocarbon resources 75–7 Kikwete regime 25, 28 middle-high-income country, moving to a 44 Mkapa regime 21 Mwinyi regime 17, 20 Nyerere regime 16 relief 22–3, 220 trends 34 Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Dar es Salaam Port 108, 109, 111, 116, 121 gateway ports 108 logistics infrastructure 105, 106 Northern Corridor 123 population levels 106 Tanzania’s influence 122 demographics 38, 73 see also population levels development theory institutional framework 32 Kikwete regime 27 Mkapa regime 23 Mwinyi regime 17, 20 Nyerere regime 13, 15–16 Development Vision 2025 see Vision 2025 digital financial services 278–9, 280, 286–7 Djibouti 106 competitive environment and traffic flows 107 employment effect of transit traffic 125 Liner Shipping Connectivity Index 113, 114 politics of transit traffic 124 as transit country for Ethiopia 121, 122 Dodoma 86 Dominican Republic 157 donors see aid Durban, South Africa 106, 107, 108, 110, 111, 113 Dutch disease 41 dwell time for cargo 115–18, 124–5 earnings 170, 174 cross-country comparison 174 and education 178, 179 East African Common Services Organization (EACSO) 11 East African Community (EAC) 105 collapse 14 financial sector developments 283, 285, 287–8 member countries 289n9 Monetary Affairs Committee 285 Nyerere regime 11 port development 127 revenue mobilization 223, 225 Treasury bills 274 East African Currency Board (EACB) 11 East African Monetary Union (EAMU) 241, 260–1, 262 outlook 287–8 East African Payment System (EAPS) 285, 288 293 Index Eastern and South Africa Anti-Money Laundering Group (ESAAMLG) 284 Economic Empowerment Policy 164 economic growth global 20 hydrocarbon resources 54–5, 74–5 Kikwete regime 26, 27, 28, 30 middle-high-income country, moving to a 42–4 Mkapa regime 22, 23, 24 Mwinyi regime 20 Nyerere regime 12, 16, 17 trends 2–3, 32 Economic Recovery Plan (ERP) 155, 272 economic structure 204–6 Economic Zones Law 2011 157 education 3, attainment levels 4, 71 deprivation 195 and growth 38, 39 Kikwete regime 25, 30, 31 and learning, disconnect between 177–80 middle-high-income country, moving to a 43 Mwinyi regime 21 Nyerere regime 11, 17 productivity 96 reform 184 trends 32 see also skills agenda; training effective organizations 3–5, electricity 31, 39 Electronic Fund Transfer (EFT) 288 Electronic Transactions Act 2015 279 employment African manufacturing sector 92 agricultural sector 132, 144, 152 categories 173 and GDP 170 hydrocarbon resources 56–7, 69–74 job creation 171 manufacturing sector 151, 152, 160, 164 patterns 172–7 policy 183–6 skills development 181 transit traffic 121–2, 125–6 Energy and Water Utility Regulatory Authority (EWURA) 68 energy prices 262, 263 energy use 30, 32–3 engineering challenges, hydrocarbon resources 64–5 Enterprise Map of Tanzania 74 entrepreneurship skills agenda 180, 182, 185 true versus reluctant 95–6 294 equality and inequality Mkapa regime 24 Mwinyi regime 21 Nyerere regime 12, 13, 16–17 poverty 191, 192, 210 trends 33 Eritrea 122 Ethiopia 121, 122, 124 ethnic diversity 10, 35 ethnic harmony 10, 11, 17, 38 exchange rates agricultural sector 138 manufacturing exports 156 monetary/fiscal accord 242 Mwinyi regime 18, 19 natural gas sector 263–4 Nyerere regime 16 public balance sheet 221 reserve-money programming 259 Export Processing Zones Authority (EPZA) 157, 158 exports agricultural sector 11, 12, 19, 132, 133, 135, 138, 146 Dar es Salaam Port 105, 129n5 gold 83n1 growth relative to GDP 41 hydrocarbon resources 49, 50, 54, 263–4 Kikwete regime 25, 27, 28, 30 manufacturing sector 156–9 Mkapa regime 24 Mwinyi regime 18, 19, 21, 46n16 Nyerere regime 11, 12 public balance sheet 221 source market trends 25 trends 29, 33, 34 external debt see debt familyhood (ujamaa) 13, 18, 40, 137–8 Federal Reserve 154, 267n3, 267n5 fees and charges, hydrocarbon resources 58, 68 fertilizers 133, 138 financial inclusion 271, 279–81, 286–7 Financial Intelligence Unit 285 financial sector agricultural production challenges 135 development 271–2, 288–9 and financial inclusion 279–81 mortgage market developments 282–3 outlook 285–8 overview 272–9 regional integration 283–5 Kikwete regime 26 middle-high-income country, moving to a 44 Nyerere regime 13 see also banking sector Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) 274 Index firms effective 3–4, productivity 90–1, 92–6 and city size 103–4 and connectivity 102 and firm size 90–1, 94 size 4, fiscal balance 16, 18, 218, 220 fiscal policy Mkapa regime 22 Mwinyi regime 18, 19, 20 Nyerere regime 16 fiscal reforms 214–19, 236–7 public balance sheet 219–22 public investment and public finance 227–31 revenue mobilization, tax reforms, and marginal cost of funds 222–7 simulation results 231–6 Five-year Development Plan (FYDP) 69, 140 food poverty food supply chains 143–5 foreign direct investment (FDI) agricultural sector 147 hydrocarbon resources 60, 69–70 Kikwete regime 26, 30 Mkapa regime 24 natural gas 262 Nyerere regime 13 supermarket and retail sector 145 foreign exchange 19, 36, 41, 42 gas see natural gas geographic location 35–6 geological risks, hydrocarbon resources 64–5 Germany 44 Gezaulole 100 Ghana 76, 77, 261 global economic cycle 10, 33–4 Eurozone debt crisis (2011) 27 financial crisis (2007/8) 27, 32, 33, 220, 246 interest rates 23 Mwinyi regime 20 Nyerere regime 13–14 global output 14 gold 24, 30, 83n1 governance 19, 20, 24, 68 Government Loans, Guarantees and Grants Act 1974 276 Government Securities System (GSS) 276, 277 Great Britain 45n4 gross domestic product (GDP) agricultural sector 132 Dar es Salaam’s contribution 88, 97 and employment 170 growth 151, 243 and poverty 191, 192, 208, 209, 210 relative to exports 41 hydrocarbon resources 51, 57, 59, 61–2 Kikwete regime 28, 30 manufacturing sector 151, 156 Nyerere regime 16 reserve-money programming 246, 248 revenue mobilization 222–3 revision 238n10 trends 2, 16, 32, 172 growth inclusive 40–1 underpinnings 38–41 health and growth 38 Kikwete regime 25, 30, 31 Mwinyi regime 21 Nyerere regime 17 trends 32 Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative 23, 24 Helleiner report 20 Host Government Agreements (HGAs) 66 housing Dar es Salaam 98, 99, 100–1 deficit 282 deprivation 195 mortgage market 282–3 Housing Finance Project (HFP) 282 human capital fiscal reforms 215 and growth 38–9 harnessing 177–83 hydrocarbon resources 71–3, 74 middle-high-income country, moving to a 43, 44 Mkapa regime 21–2 Mwinyi regime 17, 21 Nyerere regime 11, 17 urban productivity 89 see also education; skills agenda; training human development index (HDI) 23 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) 122 hydrocarbons 49–50, 77–8 economic impact 50–1 macroeconomic accounts 80–2 policy choices 63–77 potential boom? 51–6 project impact 56–63 projections 79 revenue instruments 58 transformation 51 see also liquefied natural gas; natural gas 295 Index identity, national 2, 11 imports agricultural sector 135, 138 Dar es Salaam Port 105, 117–18, 129n5 food 134, 142–3 hydrocarbon resources 69 Kikwete regime 27, 28 liberalization 13 Mkapa regime 22, 24 Mwinyi regime 18, 19, 46n16 Nyerere regime 16 and poverty 209 public balance sheet 221 trends 29, 33 in-between sector see informal sector income inequality see equality and inequality incomes, per capita see per capita income independence, economy at 11 India 42, 158, 166, 226 Indonesia 45n10, 90, 158 industrialization 152–4, 155, 167 and living conditions 102 and urbanization 92–3 industrial sector Enterprise Map of Tanzania 74 Kikwete regime 28 Mwinyi regime 19 Nyerere regime 11, 12, 13, 17 inequality see equality and inequality infant mortality rates 17 inflation Kikwete regime 25, 28 macroeconomic stabilization policies Mkapa regime 21, 23 monetary policy 241 independence 261 monetary/fiscal accord 242–4 natural gas sector 264 reserve-money programming 244–59 Mwinyi regime 18, 20 Nyerere regime 16 informal sector employment 175, 180, 181 self-employment 172 young people 173–4 manufacturing 160–6 Mwinyi regime 21 productivity 94, 96 revenue mobilization 223, 226 skills agenda 183 information and communications technology (ICT) financial inclusion 286–7 middle-high-income country, moving to a 44 production networks 4–5 information deprivation 195 296 infrastructure agricultural sector 136, 137, 146 policy 146–7, 148 Dar es Salaam 99, 101 fiscal reforms 215, 216–17, 218, 230–3 and growth 39–40 information and communications technology investment challenges 41, 42 Kikwete regime 25, 26, 30, 31 logistics see logistics infrastructure manufacturing sector 157 middle-high-income country, moving to a 43, 44 Mwinyi regime 17, 19 Nyerere regime 11 physical capital stock 39–40, 215 power 55 prosperity, opportunities for 36 public balance sheet 221–2 transport 89 urbanization 88 institutional framework 31–2 institutional investor ratings (IIR) 24, 25 Insurance Act 1996 277 insurance sector agricultural sector 137 developments 272, 274, 277 financial inclusion 280 Kikwete regime 26 outlook 287 Integrated Financial Management System 215 Integrated Industrial Development Strategy 2025(IIDS) 155–6 interbank market 254–6 interbank payment systems 278, 279 interest rates fiscal reforms 216 global 23, 27 Kikwete regime 27 Mkapa regime 23 monetary policy 241, 244 independence 261 monetary/fiscal accord 242 reserve-money programming 254, 255–60 mortgage market 282 Mwinyi regime 18 Nyerere regime 12 International Labour Organization (ILO) 275 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Financial Sector Assessment Program 274 fiscal reforms 215, 216 Ghana 76 monetary/fiscal accord 242 Mwinyi regime reserve-money programming 245, 250, 252, 253, 267n10 Zambia 76 Index Internet users 30 investment agricultural sector 146–7 challenges 41–2 in Dar es Salaam Port 126–7 and growth 39, 40 hydrocarbon resources 50, 54 economic growth 55 macroeconomic impact 57 policy choices 63–75 timing 55 Kikwete regime 25, 26, 28, 30, 31 manufacturing sector 156, 157, 167 Mkapa regime 22, 24 Mwinyi regime 21 and poverty 209 prosperity, opportunities for 36 public see public investment trends 34 Investment Promotion Agency 158 iron 37 irrigation 43, 137, 138, 146 Islamic banking 281 Jakarta, Indonesia 90 Japan 64 job creation 171 Kenya comparison with Tanzania 11 crop yields 134, 135 cross-border trade 39 EAC membership 11 exports to Uganda 122 GDP growth 172 imports from Tanzania 138 independence 45n4 Liner Shipping Connectivity Index 113, 114 Logistics Performance Index 158 Mombasa see Mombasa, Kenya mortgage market 282 Northern Corridor 123, 124 reserve-money programming 258 revenue mobilization 223, 225 supermarkets 145 tour operators 14 training 184 Kigamboni 101 Kikwete regime 25–31 commodity price trends 14 economic growth 32 export source market trends 25 export trends 29 external trade environment 33 global output trends 14 import trends 29 institutional framework 31 output and production trends 16 social indicators 33 terms of trade trends 14 Kilimo Kwanza (KK) 26, 139, 146 Kinyerezi 100 Lake Nyasa 45n2 Lake Tanganyika 45n2 Lake Victoria 45n2 Land Act 282 land markets 91–2, 98–101, 103, 136 legal framework Bank of Tanzania 242, 245, 265–6 hydrocarbon resources 65–8 Kikwete regime 25–6 middle-high-income country, moving to a 44 production networks 4–5 liberalization agricultural sector 138, 147 import 13 Mwinyi regime 18–19, 20 price 13, 19 trade 13, 19, 155 life expectancy 30 life insurance products 272 Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) 112–13, 114, 129n10 liquefied natural gas (LNG) 49, 77–8 linking industry and 159–60 macroeconomic accounts 80–2 policy choices 63–77 potential boom? 52–3, 54, 55–6 project impact 56–63 projections 79 timeline 55 local content, hydrocarbon resources 73–4 logistics hubs 110 logistics infrastructure 105–7 Dar es Salaam Port investment in future competitiveness 126–7 obstacles 112–19 politics and economics 119–26 traffic comparisons and trends 107–12 manufacturing sector 157, 158–9, 167 Logistics Performance Index (LPI) 158 Long-Term Perspective Plan (LTPP) 156 macroeconomic stability/instability fiscal reforms 215 hydrocarbon resources 75 Kikwete regime 25, 26, 27, 28 Mkapa regime 21, 22 Mwinyi regime 18, 20 Nyerere regime 16 trends 34 297 Index Maersk 112, 113 maize 133, 134, 136 Majid, Sayyid 105 Malawi 106, 108, 109, 111, 123 Malaysia 26, 42, 158 manufacturing sector 151–2, 166–7 Africa 92 growing formal manufacturing 155–60 and growth 41 and the ‘in-between’ sector 160–6 Kikwete regime 30 middle-high-income country, moving to a 42–3 Mkapa regime 24 Mwinyi regime 21 Nyerere regime 12, 13 structural change and industrialization 152–4 urbanization 92–3 Maputo, Mozambique 129n4 marginal cost of funds (MCF) 226–7 maritime gateways 110 market risks, hydrocarbon resources 63–4 Maurel et Prom 54 Mauritius 113, 114, 180 Mbeya 123 Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 112 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) 69 Mexico 180, 254 microfinance 165–6, 274, 280, 281 micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) 160–1, 162, 164–6, 167 see also small–medium enterprises Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise Survey 93–4 middle-high-income country, moving to a 42–4 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 23 mining sector and growth 40, 41 Kikwete regime 30 Mkapa regime 22, 24 Nyerere regime 12 Zambia 74 Ministry of Energy and Minerals (MEM) 51, 68 Ministry of Finance (MOF) 68, 69, 215, 285 Ministry of Labour and Employment 69 Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development 69, 100 Mini-Tiger Plan 2020 156, 157 Mivumoni 100 Mkapa regime 21–5 commodity price trends 14 economic growth 32 export source market trends 25 export trends 29 external trade environment 33 298 global output trends 14 import trends 29 institutional framework 31 output and production trends 16 productivity 40 social indicators 32, 33 terms of trade trends 14 MKUKUTA/MKUKUTA II 26 Mnazi Bay 52, 54, 55 mobile communications 30 financial services 30, 278–9, 280, 286 Mombasa, Kenya 106 competitive environment and traffic flows 107, 108 Dar es Salaam compared with 158–9 hinterland 127 maritime gateway 110 Northern Corridor 123 transshipment traffic 112, 113 monetary aggregates 244, 247–8, 256 monetary policy emerging issues 260–4 legislative mandate of Bank of Tanzania 265–6 monetary/fiscal accord of mid-1990s 241–4 Mwinyi regime 18 Nyerere regime 16 practical challenges 253–60 reserve-money programming since 1995 244–53 transmission mechanism 249, 256–60, 278 transparency 256 Mortgage Finance Act 2008 282 mortgage market developments 282–3 motivation 4, Mount Kilimanjaro 45n3 Mozambique civil war 35, 123 crop yields 134, 135 Maputo 129n4 natural gas 52, 64 poverty 199 Mtwara 51, 57 Mtwara–Dar es Salaam pipeline project 159 Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) 23, 24 Mwinyi regime 2, 17–21 commodity price trends 14 economic growth 32 export source market trends 25 export trends 29 global output trends 14 import trends 29 institutional framework 31 output and production trends 16 productivity 40 social indicators 32 terms of trade trends 14 Index Nakumatt 145 National Bank of Commerce (NBC) 273 National Council for Technical Education (NACTE) 181–2 National Development Corporation (NDC) 37 National Economic Survival Programme 45n7 National Environment Management Council (NEMC) 69 National Financial Inclusion Framework 271, 280 National Housing Corporation (NHC) 282 national identity 2, 11 National Insurance Corporation 272 National Insurance Policy 287 nationalization 13 National Microfinance Bank (NMB) 274 National Microfinance Policy 164, 281 National Oil Company (NOC) 66 National Payment System Act 2015 279, 284 National Provident Fund 275 National Social Security Fund (NSSF) 101, 283 National Social Security Fund Act 1997 275 National Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction (MKUKUTA) 26 National Vision 2025 see Vision 2025 natural gas 49–50, 77–8 domestic use 54–5 economic impact 50–1 employment 172 energy prices 246 and growth 39 and investment in urban areas 103 Kikwete regime 26, 30 linking industry and 159–60, 162, 167 macroeconomic accounts 80–2 map of principal offshore fields 53 monetary policy 262–4 policy choices 63–77 potential boom? 51–6 project impact 56–63 projections 79 prosperity, opportunities for 37 reserves, estimation of 51 terms and units 52 natural resources 1, 10 challenges 41 country risk premia 217 Kikwete regime 25 middle-high-income country, moving to a 43 Nyerere regime 11 and poverty 209 prosperity, opportunities for 36–7 revenue mobilization 226 urbanization process 93 see also hydrocarbons Netherlands 45n11 New Alliance on Food Security and Nutrition 139 New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) 139 New Zealand 244 Nigeria 165–6 non-tariff barriers (NTBs) 105 Nordic countries 15, 45n11 Northern Corridor 106, 123–4, 129n7 North–South Corridor 106, 129n7 Nyerere regime 2–3, 10–17 commodity price trends 14 economic growth 32 export source market trends 25 export trends 29 fiscal policy 214 global output trends 14 import trends 29 institutional framework 31 output and production trends 16 productivity 40 social indicators 32, 33 terms of trade trends 14 Nyirabu Commission 272, 273, 274 Official Development Assistance (ODA) 62 oil prices Kikwete regime 27, 28 LNG prices relative to 64 Mkapa regime 23 Nyerere regime 13 and poverty 202 shocks 138 trends 14, 33 Oman 110, 113, 114 on-the-job training 181, 182–3 operations and maintenance (O&M) expenditures 217, 218, 219, 227, 230–7 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Development Assistance Committee (OECDDAC) 34 organizations, effective 3–5, output see productivity Own Funded Import Scheme 13 Pakistan 45n10 peace 2, 10, 35 see also social cohesion pension sector developments 272, 273, 274–5, 277–8 mortgage market 283 outlook 287 per capita income Kikwete regime 28 Mkapa regime 23 299 Index per capita income (cont.) Mwinyi regime 20 Nyerere regime 16 trends 2, 32 Petroleum Act (2015) 65–7 Petroleum Act, Cap 392 65 Petroleum (Exploration and Production) Act, Cap 328 65 petroleum products 108, 109 Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) 68 physical capital stock 39–40, 215 see also infrastructure planning, credible 91–2, 98–101, 102 political stability 10, 17 population density Dar es Salaam 90, 99 and growth 40 productivity 96 population dispersion 11 population levels 10 agricultural production 134, 135 Dar es Salaam 86, 88, 97, 175 Eastern and Southern Africa 106 hydrocarbon revenues relative to 59, 61–2 Mwinyi regime 20 trends 2, 86 urban areas 88, 140, 141, 175 young people 174 portfolio shocks 254–6 poverty 190–2, 210–11 agricultural sector 43 average earnings 174 food growth and monetary poverty 199–210 Kikwete regime 25, 26, 30 Mkapa regime 22, 23, 24 multidimensional measures of nonmonetary poverty 192–9 trends 2, 170, 172 poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSPs) 155 power generation 54–5, 63, 64 President’s Office Planning Commission (POPC) 69 price liberalization 13, 19 price stability 19 private sector agricultural strategy 139, 143 financial sector developments 273, 288 fiscal reforms 215 and growth 40 housing developments 283 Mkapa regime 22 monetary policy 259 Mwinyi regime 19, 21 rural–urban supply chains 143 skills agenda 182–3, 185, 186 300 privatization 22, 260, 273–4 production networks 4–5 productivity 3–5, agricultural sector 132–7, 152 and education 178, 179 firm see firms: productivity and growth 40, 151, 152, 153 Kikwete regime 28 manufacturing sector 151, 152 in-between sector 161–3, 164 middle-high-income country, moving to a 42, 43 Mkapa regime 24 Mwinyi regime 19, 20, 21 Nyerere regime 12, 17 total factor productivity see total factor productivity trends 16 urban 88–92 profit shares, hydrocarbon resources 58, 59, 60, 61, 68, 75 property rights 26, 44 prosperity 3–5, 7, 12 opportunities 35–8 public balance sheet 219–22 public debt see debt public goods 216, 218 public investment 214–19, 236–7 balance sheet 219–22 and public finance 227–31 revenue mobilization, tax reforms, and marginal cost of funds 222–7 simulation results 231–6 public–private partnerships agricultural sector 140, 146 financial inclusion 271 and growth 40 Mkapa regime 24 Kikwete regime 28 skills agenda 183, 185, 186 Public Servants Housing Scheme 282–3 purchasing power parity (PPP) regional gateway 119–24 regional integration 105–6 Dar es Salaam Port 122 financial sector developments 283–5, 287–8 regulations agro-processing 144 financial sector 273–5, 287 hydrocarbon resources 65–8, 73 land markets 99 manufacturing sector 165 middle-high-income country, moving to a 44 skills agenda 185 transport sector 147 religion 11, 281 Index research and development 43, 136–7 Reserve Bank of New Zealand 244 reserve-money targeting (RMT) 241, 244–53 practical challenges 253–60 reserves Mkapa regime 23 Nyerere regime 16 trends 34 retail payment systems 278–9 revenue mobilization 222–7 rice 133, 134, 136, 141–2 Richards Bay, South Africa 129n4 risk premia, country 217 root crops 142 royalties, hydrocarbon resources 58, 59, 60, 68 rural areas financial inclusion 280–1 income trends 33 inequality 17 poverty 2, 209 non-monetary 195, 196, 197 urbanization process 86 Russia 64, 124 Rwanda Dar es Salaam Port 39, 108, 109, 116 gateway ports 108 logistics infrastructure 105 Logistics Performance Index 158 mortgage market 282 Northern Corridor 123 population levels 106 Salalah, Oman 110, 113 sanitation Dar es Salaam 97, 98 deprivation 195 savings 273, 280–1 Savings and Credit Cooperative Societies (SACCOS) 274, 280, 281 schools see education self-employment and productivity 91 skills agenda 172, 175–6, 180, 184 service sector ‘consumption city’ concept 94 Kikwete regime 28, 30 middle-high-income country, moving to a 44 Mkapa regime 24 Shanghai, China 90 Shell 61 shelter deprivation 195 Sierra Leone 76, 77, 78 Singapore 180 Single Treasury Account 215 sisal 12, 14 skills agenda 170–1, 183–6 basic education and skills 177–83 growth, jobs, and patterns of employment 172–7 see also human capital Small and Medium Enterprise Development Policy (SMEDP) 164 small–medium enterprises (SMEs) Dar es Salaam 94 middle-high-income country, moving to a 44 skills agenda 183, 184 taxation 185 see also micro, small, and medium enterprises smuggling 122 social cohesion and growth 38 Mwinyi regime 17 Nyerere regime 11, 15, 17 peace 2, 10, 35 prosperity, opportunities for 35 social inclusion 27, 38 social indicators 32–3 social security 278 Social Security Regulator Authority (SSRA) Act 2008 275 social welfare see welfare Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) standards 285 soda ash 37 Songo Songo 52, 55 South Africa apartheid, end of 123 Coega 113 crop yields 134, 135 cross-border trade 39 Durban 106, 107, 108, 110, 111, 113 Liner Shipping Connectivity Index 113, 114 logistics infrastructure 106 manufacturing sector 93 Richards Bay 129n4 supermarkets 145 training 185 South African Development Community (SADC) Bank of Tanzania 262 Committee of Central Bank Governors 283 financial sector developments 283–4 Integrated Regional Settlement System (SIRESS) 284 member countries 289n10 Protocol on Finance and Investment 2006 283–4 road infrastructure costs 120 Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) 139, 146 Southern Corridor 106 South Korea 57 301 Index South Sudan 108 spatial connections, production networks 4–5 special economic zones (SEZs) 156–8, 167, 186 specialization 3–4, 89, 90 state ownership 13, 19 Statoil 52, 56 stock exchange 26, 274, 276, 287, 288 Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) (1982–5) 45n7 subsistence consumption 133 sugar 135, 185–6 supermarkets 143, 145 sustainable development 27, 41–2 Sustainable Industrial Policy for Tanzania (SIDP) 155 Swahili 11, 178 Sweden 45n11 Tanganyika 45n1 Tanga port 129n6 Tanzania Agriculture and Food Security Investment Plan (TAFSIP) 139, 146 Tanzania Buildings Agency 283 Tanzania Insurance Act 2009 277 Tanzania Insurance Regulatory Authority (TIRA) 277, 287 Tanzania Interbank Settlement System (TISS) 278, 279, 285 Tanzania International Container Terminal Services (TICTS) 113–15, 118, 126 Tanzania Mortgage Refinancing Company (TMRC) 282 Tanzania National Business Council (TNBC) 168n8 Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) 54, 68 Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) 113–15, 118, 123, 130n26 Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) financial sector developments 278, 285 fiscal reforms 215 hydrocarbon resources 68–9 Mkapa regime 22 Mwinyi regime 19 Tanzania–Zambia railway (TAZARA) 45n9 taxation agricultural sector 138 Dar es Salaam’s contribution 88, 97 hydrocarbon resources 56 land appreciation 101, 103 Mkapa regime 22 Mwinyi regime 19 reforms 214–15, 218, 222–7, 228–37 small businesses 185 see also corporate income tax; value-added tax tea 14, 135 technical risks, hydrocarbon resources 64–5 302 technology fiscal reforms 229–30 non-bank institutions 276 see information and communications technology terms of trade Kikwete regime 27 Mkapa regime 22, 23 Mwinyi regime 20 Nyerere regime 14 and poverty 210 trends 15, 33 Thailand 158 tobacco 133, 135, 185 total factor productivity (TFP) and growth 40 middle-high-income country, moving to a 43 Mwinyi regime 17, 21 and poverty 207 tourism and growth 38 Kikwete regime 30 middle-high-income country, moving to a 43, 44 Mkapa regime 24 Nyerere regime 14 prosperity, opportunities for 35, 36 trade 105–7 Dar es Salaam Port investment in future competitiveness 126–7 obstacles 112–19 politics and economics 119–26 traffic comparisons and trends 107–12 deficit 21 liberalization 13, 19, 155 training 181–2, 184–5, 186 hydrocarbon resources 71–3, 74 microenterprises 166, 167 see also education; skills agenda transport agricultural sector 138, 144 Dar es Salaam 90, 91, 101 and growth 39 Kikwete regime 26, 31 middle-high-income country, moving to a 43 Mkapa regime 22 Mwinyi regime 19 Nyerere regime 45n9 regulations 147 urban productivity 89, 90, 91 see also logistics infrastructure transshipment hubs 110, 112–13 Treasury bills 274, 276, 277, 282 Treasury bonds 275–6 20, 000 Plots Project 99–100 Index Uchumi 145 Uganda cash budget 267n2 Central Corridor 124 crop yields 134, 135 Dar es Salaam Port 108, 109, 116 EAC membership 11 gateway ports 108 GDP growth 172 imports 122 independence 45n4 Logistics Performance Index 158 natural resources 76, 77, 78 Northern Corridor 123 population levels 106 reserve-money programming 258 revenue mobilization 223, 225 Tanzania’s war with 138 youth employment 173 ujamaa (familyhood) 13, 18, 40, 137–8 underemployment 172 under-five mortality rate 32 unemployment human capital 38 macroeconomic stabilization policies middle-high-income country, moving to a 42 and natural resources 41 skills agenda 171, 172–3 sub-Saharan Africa 31 United Kingdom 45n4 United States of America (USA) agricultural market 203 hydrocarbon resources 64 interest rates 216 marginal cost of funds 226 monetary policy 254, 267n3, 267n5 New Alliance on Food Security and Nutrition 139 urbanization 86–8, 101–2 cross-country comparisons 87 demand for agricultural products 134, 140–3, 146, 147–8 rural–urban supply chains 143–5 drivers 92–3 and economic development 87 employment 175 and industrialization 92–3 inequality 17 non-monetary poverty 195, 196, 197 productivity 88–92 value-added tax (VAT) fiscal reforms 215–16, 223–4, 225, 227 Mkapa regime 22 value chains 4–5 VAT Act 2015 225 Vice President’s Office (VPO) 69 Vietnam 156, 157, 197 villagization programme 13 Vision 2025 22, 139–40, 164 manufacturing sector 152, 155, 167 Vocational Education and Training Authority (VETA) 71, 73, 181–2 vocational training 181–2, 186 Voluntary Service Overseas (VSO) 71 wages see earnings water Dar es Salaam 97–8 deprivation 194–5 Kikwete regime 26, 31 see also irrigation Watumishi Housing Company (WHC) 283 welfare 190–1, 210 fiscal reforms 225, 226, 236 multidimensional measures 192–7 Mwinyi regime 21 Nyerere regime 16–17 Wentworth 54 wheat 141–2 women’s employment 173 World Bank Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic programme 217, 222 development theory 15 Enterprise Survey 93 Financial Sector Assessment Program 274 Housing Finance Project 282 Logistics Performance Index 158 Mwinyi regime Poverty Assessment 30 World Development Indicators 23 young people employment/unemployment 172, 173–7 population levels 174 skills agenda 170, 171, 177, 179, 180–1, 184, 186 Zambia cash budget 267n2 Chinese aid to 45n10 copper mining 238n13 Dar es Salaam Port 108, 109, 111, 116, 121 exports to Tanzania 138 gateway ports 108 logistics infrastructure 106 mining sector 74 natural resources 76, 77 population levels 106 Zanzibar 45n1 Zimbabwe 123 303 ... Building Prosperity from Resource Wealth Edited by Christopher S Adam, Paul Collier, and Michael Gondwe Tanzania: The Path to Prosperity Edited by Christopher S Adam, Paul Collier, and Benno Ndulu Tanzania. .. Director, John Page—for their support and assistance as this project has evolved As the Series Editors stress in their preface to this volume, the fundamental idea underpinning the Policies for Prosperity. .. benefit from the region, leaving little value in the country and even less under the direct control of the people of Tanzania The half-century since the creation of the United Republic of Tanzania