The Diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies In recent decades, the world has witnessed—unprecedented in terms of speed and geographic coverage—diffusion of new information and communication technologies (ICT) The ongoing Digital Revolution pervasively impacts and reshapes societies and economies and therefore deserves special attention and interest This book provides extensive evidence on ICT development patterns and dynamics of this process across developed economies over the period 1980 to the present day It adopts newly developed methodology to the identification of the ‘critical mass’ and isolation of technological take-off intervals, which are intimately related to the process of technology diffusion The statistically robust analysis of country-specific data demonstrates the key economic, social and institutional prerequisites of ICT diffusion across examined countries, indicating the factors that significantly foster or— reversely—hinder the process Ewa Lechman is Associate Professor in the Faculty of Management and Economics at Gdańsk University of Technology, Poland Routledge Studies in Technology, Work and Organizations Edited by David Preece University of Teeside, UK For a full list of titles in this series, please visit www.routledge.com Managing Complex Projects Networks, Knowledge and Innovation Neil Alderman, Chris Ivory, Ian McLoughlin, and Roger Vaughan Information and Communication Technologies in rural society Being Rural in a Digital Age Grete Rusten and Sarah Skerratt Software and Organizations The Biography of the Enterprise-Wide System or How SAP Conquered the World Neil Pollock and Robin Williams Technological Communities and Networks Triggers and Drivers for Innovation Dimitris Assimakopoulos Health Technology Development and Use From Practice-Bound Imagination to Evolving Impacts Sampsa Hyysalo Nanotechnology and Sustainable Development Claire Auplat Challenging the Innovation Paradigm Edited by Karl-Erik Sveiby, Pernilla Gripenberg and Beata Segercrantz 10 Innovation Management in Robot Society Kristian Wasen 11 Patent Management and Valuation The Strategic and Geographical Dimension Edited by Grid Thoma 12 The Diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies Ewa Lechman The Diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies Ewa Lechman First published 2018 by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 and by Routledge Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2018 Taylor & Francis The right of Ewa Lechman to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by her in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 All rights reserved No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested ISBN: 978-1-138-20215-3 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-47465-6 (ebk) Typeset in Sabon by Apex CoVantage, LLC To my daughter, A Contents List of Figures List of Tables Foreword Acknowledgements ix xi xiii xv Introduction Technology and Economic Development: Historical Perspective Technology Diffusion: Conceptual Aspects 47 Identifying ICT Diffusion Patterns: Linking Models to Data for Technology 77 Technological Take-Offs: Country Perspective 139 What Have We Learned From This Book? 179 Appendices Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix Index 189 191 194 196 206 215 225 227 Figures 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 6.1 Diffusion curve and bell curve S-shaped time path Critical mass and technological take-off on the diffusion S-shaped time path Critical mass and technological take-off—theoretical specification General trends in ICT diffusion Annual averages for the period 1980–2015 Changes in ICT distributions Period 1990–2015 Changes in inequality (Gini coefficients time trends) in access to and use of ICT Period 1980–2015 MCS and FTL diffusion paths Country-specific evidence High-income economies Period 1975–2015 MCS and FTL diffusion paths Country-specific evidence Upper-middle-income economies Period 1975–2015 FBS, AMS and IU diffusion paths Country-specific evidence High-income countries Period 1990–2015 FBS, AMS, IU diffusion paths Country-specific evidence Upper-middle-income economies Period 1990–2015 Fixed- versus mobile-broadband changes High-income and upper-middle-income economies Period 2010–2015 Changes in prices in usage of mobile-cellular telephony in selected high-income and upper-middle-income economies Period 1990–2015 Changes in prices in access to Internet network in selected high-income and upper-middle-income economies Period 1990–2015 Mobile-cellular telephony penetration rates versus its selected determinants Internet penetration rates versus selected determinants Length of the pre-take-off stage versus technological take-off critical conditions 54 56 64 67 84 85 88 94 97 111 114 131 167 168 170 171 184 ... Management and Valuation The Strategic and Geographical Dimension Edited by Grid Thoma 12 The Diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies Ewa Lechman The Diffusion of Information and Communication. . .The Diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies In recent decades, the world has witnessed—unprecedented in terms of speed and geographic coverage diffusion of new information and. .. approach and trace countrywide technological take-offs; we calculate the value of the critical mass and the length of the pre-take-off periods regarding ICT diffusion (mobile-cellular telephony and