The diffusion of information and communication technologies

The Diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies In recent decades, the world has witnessed—unprecedented in terms of speed and geographic coverage—diffusion of new information and communication technologies (ICT) The ongoing Digital Revolution pervasively impacts and reshapes societies and economies and therefore deserves special attention and interest This book provides extensive evidence on ICT development patterns and dynamics of this process across developed economies over the period 1980 to the present day It adopts newly developed methodology to the identification of the ‘critical mass’ and isolation of technological take-off intervals, which are intimately related to the process of technology diffusion The statistically robust analysis of country-specific data demonstrates the key economic, social and institutional prerequisites of ICT diffusion across examined countries, indicating the factors that significantly foster or— reversely—hinder the process Ewa Lechman is Associate Professor in the Faculty of Management and Economics at Gdańsk University of Technology, Poland Routledge Studies in Technology, Work and Organizations Edited by David Preece University of Teeside, UK For a full list of titles in this series, please visit www.routledge.com Managing Complex Projects Networks, Knowledge and Innovation Neil Alderman, Chris Ivory, Ian McLoughlin, and Roger Vaughan Information and Communication Technologies in rural society Being Rural in a Digital Age Grete Rusten and Sarah Skerratt Software and Organizations The Biography of the Enterprise-Wide System or How SAP Conquered the World Neil Pollock and Robin Williams Technological Communities and Networks Triggers and Drivers for Innovation Dimitris Assimakopoulos Health Technology Development and Use From Practice-Bound Imagination to Evolving Impacts Sampsa Hyysalo Nanotechnology and Sustainable Development Claire Auplat Challenging the Innovation Paradigm Edited by Karl-Erik Sveiby, Pernilla Gripenberg and Beata Segercrantz 10 Innovation Management in Robot Society Kristian Wasen 11 Patent Management and Valuation The Strategic and Geographical Dimension Edited by Grid Thoma 12 The Diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies Ewa Lechman The Diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies Ewa Lechman First published 2018 by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 and by Routledge Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2018 Taylor & Francis The right of Ewa Lechman to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by her in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 All rights reserved No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested ISBN: 978-1-138-20215-3 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-47465-6 (ebk) Typeset in Sabon by Apex CoVantage, LLC To my daughter, A Contents List of Figures List of Tables Foreword Acknowledgements ix xi xiii xv Introduction Technology and Economic Development: Historical Perspective Technology Diffusion: Conceptual Aspects 47 Identifying ICT Diffusion Patterns: Linking Models to Data for Technology 77 Technological Take-Offs: Country Perspective 139 What Have We Learned From This Book? 179 Appendices Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix Index 189 191 194 196 206 215 225 227 Figures 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 6.1 Diffusion curve and bell curve S-shaped time path Critical mass and technological take-off on the diffusion S-shaped time path Critical mass and technological take-off—theoretical specification General trends in ICT diffusion Annual averages for the period 1980–2015 Changes in ICT distributions Period 1990–2015 Changes in inequality (Gini coefficients time trends) in access to and use of ICT Period 1980–2015 MCS and FTL diffusion paths Country-specific evidence High-income economies Period 1975–2015 MCS and FTL diffusion paths Country-specific evidence Upper-middle-income economies Period 1975–2015 FBS, AMS and IU diffusion paths Country-specific evidence High-income countries Period 1990–2015 FBS, AMS, IU diffusion paths Country-specific evidence Upper-middle-income economies Period 1990–2015 Fixed- versus mobile-broadband changes High-income and upper-middle-income economies Period 2010–2015 Changes in prices in usage of mobile-cellular telephony in selected high-income and upper-middle-income economies Period 1990–2015 Changes in prices in access to Internet network in selected high-income and upper-middle-income economies Period 1990–2015 Mobile-cellular telephony penetration rates versus its selected determinants Internet penetration rates versus selected determinants Length of the pre-take-off stage versus technological take-off critical conditions 54 56 64 67 84 85 88 94 97 111 114 131 167 168 170 171 184 2010 2010 2020 2020 10 15 20 1980 1990 2000 Uruguay 2010 2020 Figure AP(5)-1 (Continued) 10 20 30 40 10 15 2000 Sweden 2000 –5 1990 1990 –10 10 20 1980 1980 Seychelles 10 15 –5 10 15 20 1980 1980 1980 2000 2010 1990 1990 2000 USA 2000 2010 2010 Switzerland 1990 Slovak Rep 2020 2020 2020 1980 –10 10 1980 1980 20 10 20 30 –10 10 20 30 2000 2010 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Venezuela 1990 United Kingdom 1990 Slovenia 2020 2020 2020 –10 10 20 –10 10 20 30 1980 1980 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 United Arab Emirates 1990 Spain –5 –10 Bulgaria 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –10 10 20 China 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 Jordan 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 20 30 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –30 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Ecuador Costa Rica Iran Kazakhstan 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –10 10 20 30 40 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 15 20 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 20 30 40 Lebanon 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 15 Jamaica 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –10 10 20 30 20 Dominican Rep 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –10 –5 10 15 Source: Author’s elaboration Note: On the Y-axis, there are raw values of technology replication coefficients and marginal growth in technology adoption Figure AP(5)-2 Technology replication coefficients (dash line) and marginal growth in technology adoption (solid line) in country-specific patterns for mobile-cellular telephony Upper-middle-income economies 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –10 10 30 Brazil 20 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –5 –10 10 10 20 –20 15 Botswana Colombia 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 15 20 25 20 25 10 Azerbaijan 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 15 20 25 15 20 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 15 20 Bosna and Herz 0 Belarus 10 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 20 Angola 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 15 Algeria 30 10 15 10 –10 –20 Figure AP(5)-2 (Continued) 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 20 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20 40 Paraguay 30 60 Panama –5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 Mexico 10 Mauritius 15 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –5 Malaysia 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0 15 20 20 Macedonia 25 Maldives 20 Peru 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –10 10 20 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –10 Turkey Thailand 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –20 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –5 10 15 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –50 –10 0 Surinam 10 50 Serbia 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –10 10 20 30 10 Namibia Romania 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –5 10 15 20 20 30 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20 40 60 Tunisia 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 South Africa 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 –5 10 15 20 10 15 20 25 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 France 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 15 10 Denmark 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 20 20 Finland Hungary 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 –5 10 15 20 Cyprus 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 Czech Rep Greece Canada 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Austria 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -5 10 15 Iceland Estonia Germany 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 20 30 Source: Author’s elaboration Note: On the Y-axis, there are raw values of technology replication coefficients and marginal growth in technology adoption Figure AP(5)-3 Technology replication coefficients (dash line) and marginal growth in technology adoption (solid line) country-specific patterns for Internet penetration rates High-income economies 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 Croatia Chile 15 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 20 Brunei Darussalam Australia Belgium 10 15 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Argentina 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 Korea (Rep of) Malta Lithuania 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Figure AP(5)-3 (Continued) 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 10 20 Japan 15 Netherlands 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 20 Latvia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 Italy 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 15 –5 15 10 10 Israel 20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Ireland 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 Poland Russian Fed 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 New Zealand 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 10 15 20 Norway Portugal Saudi Arabia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 20 Singapore 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 –5 10 15 Qatar 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 Oman 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 15 10 15 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Figure AP(5)-3 (Continued) –5 0 USA 10 Urugauy 10 Venezuela 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 United Kingdom 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Slovenia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 –5 10 15 20 25 –5 10 15 5 10 Switzerland 15 Sweden Slovak Rep 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 20 30 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Seychelles 10 15 20 10 10 15 10 15 20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 United Arab Emirates 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Spain Algeria 10 2 0 China 199019952000200520102015 Kazakhstan 10 15 20 199019952000200520102015 Jordan 10 15 199019952000200520102015 Iran 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Ecuador Jamaica Lebanon 199019952000200520102015 10 15 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 –5 10 199019952000200520102015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 40 60 Dominican Rep Costa Rica 80 Colombia 20 Source: Author’s elaboration Note: On the Y-axis, there are raw values of technology replication coefficients and marginal growth in technology adoption Figure AP(5)-4 Technology replication coefficients (dash line) and marginal growth in technology adoption (solid line) in country-specific patterns for Internet penetration rates Upper-middle-income economies 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 6 Bulgaria Brazil 199019952000200520102015 199019952000200520102015 Botswana 10 199019952000200520102015 Bosna and Herz 10 15 Belarus 10 Azerbaijan 199019952000200520102015 15 20 Angola 199019952000200520102015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 Mexico 0 –5 Figure AP(5)-4 (Continued) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 Paraguay Panama 15 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 Mauritius –10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 Maldives Namibia Peru 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20 Malaysia 30 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Macedonia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 Romania Surinam Turkey 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Serbia Thailand 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 20 30 40 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 South Africa Tunisia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 0.00 [0.48] −3.52 [2.19] 0.006 [0.00] 7.88 [1.40] 0.012 [0.022] 0.55 0.97 48.25 [0.00] 1.30 1550 81 FTLi.y 0.00 0.10 1.13 [0.32] 1.09 1588 81 0.24 [0.73] −6.78 [4.86] FE (2) 0.006 [0.00] 7.05 [1.30] 0.012 [0.02] 0.54 0.96 62.5 [0.00] 1.07 1939 81 FE (3) 0.01 0.11 2.79 [0.09] — 1988 81 1.18 [0.71] FE (4) 0.00 0.11 2.06 [0.15] — 1588 81 −6.91 [4.81] FE (5) 0.37 0.92 19.9 [0.00] — 1949 81 0.007 [0.001] FE (6) 0.34 0.92 82.8 [0.00] — 1988 81 9.41 [1.03] FE(7) 0.08 [0.32] 0.04 0.60 7.44 [0.00] — 1978 81 FE(8) Source: Author’s estimates Note: Estimates account for fixed effects Panel balanced Constant included, not reported Robust standard errors reported below coefficients In bold, results are statistically significant at 5% level of significance Mean VIF # of obs # of countries R-sq (within) ρ (rho) F-test (Prob>F) Popi.y Urbi.y GDPi.y Mini.y FE (1) Explanatory variables Table AP(6)-1 Mobile-cellular subscriptions Fixed effects regression estimates High-income and upper-middle-income economies (full sample) Period 1990–2015 ICT and its selected determinants Panel regression results Appendix 1.62 [0.17] –0.11 [0.04] –0.000 [0.00] 2.32 [0.57] 0.003 [0.00] 0.68 0.96 43.45 [0.00] 1.53 694 81 FBSi.y 0.63 0.72 75.9 [0.00] 1.00 697 81 1.86 [0.17] –0.12 [0.03] FE (2) 0.004 [0.00] 3.01 [0.71] –0.002 [0.012] 0.62 0.97 87.01 [0.00] 1.08 1839 81 FE (3) 0.71 0.47 396.9 [0.00] — 1199 81 1.78 [0.08] FE (4) 0.12 0.82 23.17 [0.00] — 966 81 –0.30 [0.06] FE (5) 0.62 0.97 87.01 [0.00] — 1839 0.004 [0.001] FE (6) 0.28 0.90 64.83 [0.00] — 1869 81 4.72 [0.58] FE(7) 0.04 [0.01] 0.03 0.61 8.79 [0.00] — 1859 FE(8) Source: Author’s estimates Note: estimates account for fixed effects Panel—balanced Constant included—not reported Robust standard errors reported below coefficients In bolds— results statistically significant at 5% level of significance Mean VIF # of obs # of countries R–sq (within) ρ (rho) F–test (Prob>F) Popi.y Urbi.y GDPi.y FBSSubi.y FE (1) Explanatory variables Table AP(6)-2 IU Fixed effects regression estimates High-income and upper-middle-income economies (full sample) Period 1990–2015 Index Note: Italicized page numbers indicate a figure on the corresponding page Page numbers in bold indicate a table on the corresponding page active mobile-broadband subscriptions (AMS) 79, 89, 110, 113, 118–21, 122–7 adopters in technology diffusion 54 Age of Steam and Railways 28 analog technologies 29, 31, 80, 110 Asia, economic hegemony 36 assimilation of technology 12–13 Atkinson coefficients 87–9 backward countries 18, 32, 35 binary phenomenon 92 borrowed technology 18 bounded rationality 59–60 Cairncross, Frances carrying capacity 3, 55, 58 Chinese economy 15, 16–17 civil engineering 29 civil liberties 140, 158 coal industry 28 collective phenomenon 61 communication systems: carrying capacity 3, 55, 58; face-to-face contacts 32; fixed-telephony 80–1, 105, 140, 152–3; ISDN voice-channel equivalents 80; mass communication 29; see also information and communication technologies (ICTs); Internet; technology diffusion component logistic curve 123, 128 contemporary concepts of technology diffusion 53 cotton industry technology 27 country freedom status 139, 158 country-specific patterns of ICT diffusion: backward countries 18, 32, 35; freedom status and 139, 158; infrastructural conditions 163; Internet usage 159; mobile-cellular telephone subscription 143–8, 144–6, 152, 157; overview of 92–3, 141–2; penetration rates 175–6 creative destruction of technology diffusion 19, 23, 70 critical mass in technology diffusion 55, 63, 67, 67–70, 182 critical saturation (penetration) rate 65–6, 68 critical year measures 65, 66, 68, 126, 142–3, 147–59, 163–5 cross-national inequalities in ICT diffusion 2, 7, 15, 87, 89–90 culture of improvements 25 cutting-edge aspect of technology 11, 31–2, 49 Darwin, Charles 53, 59–60 death of distance 34 Deaton, Angus delay hypothesis 36 deployment phase in technological revolution 24 Diamond, Jared 14 Diffusion of Innovations (Rogers) 48 diffusion process of technology 20, 48–69, 102, 123, 143, 182, 186 digital divide in accessibility 90–9, 134, 158, 169 Digital (ICT) Revolution 179 digital technologies 31, 33, 133–4 direct determinants of ICTs diffusion 156 disruptive technologies 12, 33 domino effect and new technology 48, 54 228 Index early capitalism 16 economic development: Chinese economy 15, 16–17; European economy 15–16; global economic shifts 16; global economic ‘take-off’ 30; gross domestic product 25, 36, 139, 151, 154, 164, 173–5; ICT and 35–6; Indian economy 15, 16–17; modern economic growth theory 27; neo-Schumpeterian economy 22; non-Western economies 4; technoeconomic paradigms 18–24, 33; technology and 14–15, 47–8; tempo of 30; Western economic domination 17; see also socio-economic systems economic freedom index 139 economic hegemony 15, 36 electronic processing of information 32 endogenous growth models 18 endogenously technology diffusion 59, 60, 63 English technology developments 27–8 equilibrium approach in technology diffusion 59 European economy 15–16 evolutionary models of technology diffusion 53, 60 exogenous technology diffusion 59 face-to-face contacts 32 fast diffusion stage 12, 24, 55, 173 feedback, defined 26 Fifth Technological Revolution 29, 31–6, 51 First Technological Revolution 3, 24–30 fixed-broadband subscriptions (FBS): ICTs diffusion 79–80, 86, 110, 116–17, 122–33, 131, 132, 135, 181–2; technological take-off 141, 164, 166, 174 fixed-infrastructure stage of development 105, 129 fixed public payphones 80 fixed-telephony (FTLi) 80–1, 105, 140 fixed-telephony penetration (FTL) ranges 152–3 fixed-to-mobile telephony substitution 96, 104–9, 107, 128–32, 131, 135 fixed-wireless local loop subscriptions 80 Fourth Technological Revolution 29 free countries 140, 158 Freedom House 140, 158 ‘full’ market saturation 165 General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) 33 The Gift of Athena (Mokyr) 26 Gini coefficients 87–90, 88 Global Convergence 4, 36 Global Divergence 36 global economic shifts 16 global economic ‘take-off’ 30 globalization and ICT 32 The Great Escape Wealth, Health and the Origins of Inequality (Deaton) gross domestic product (GDP) 25, 36, 139, 151, 154, 164, 173–5 Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (Diamond) 14 Heritage Foundation 139 heterogeneous societies 13 high-income economies: FBS diffusion 127–30; ICT diffusion patterns 77, 78, 81–6, 83, 90, 123–5; ICTs direct determinants 156, 165–75, 167–8, 170–1; Internet usage rates 149–50; mobile-cellular subscription 98–9, 100–1, 142, 147, 153–4, 159; summary of 180–7, 183, 184; technological take-off 164–5; twogrowth ‘pulses’ process 123 historical technology diffusion hit-or-miss nature of technology 25 homogenization of technology 49 imitative activities in technology diffusion 50, 61 Indian economy 15, 16–17 Industrial Revolution: economic hegemony in Asia 36; introduction to 4, 16, 23; technological development of 24–31 information and communication technologies (ICTs): context of 1–4; impact of 5–6, 179–80; importance of development 9–18; lessons about 180–7, 183, 184; marginal growths 142–3; overview of 6–8; Price Baskets 169–70, 172; technological take-off 150–1 information and communication technologies (ICTs) diffusion patterns: active mobile-broadband subscriptions 79, 89, 110, 113, 118–21, 122–7; critical mass in 55, 63, 67, 67–70, 182; cross-national inequalities in 2, 7, 15, 87, 89–90; Index 229 data 77–8, 78; direct determinants of 156, 165–75, 167–8, 170–1; fixed-broadband subscriptions 79–80, 86, 110, 116–17, 122–33, 131, 132; fixed-to-mobile telephony substitution 96, 104–9, 107, 128–32, 131, 135, 181–2; Internet network expansion 109–34, 111–15, 116–21, 131, 132; key trends 81–92, 83, 84, 85, 88, 90; mobile-cellular telephone subscription 79, 82, 87, 91, 93–109, 94–8, 100–1, 107, 143, 180; process of 20, 48–69, 102, 123, 143, 182, 186; sample of 77–8, 78; sigmoid (S-shaped) pattern concept 53–60, 54, 56, 64, 67–8, 181; summary of 134–6, 176; see also countryspecific patterns of ICT diffusion; high-income economies; technology diffusion infrastructural shortages 4, 153 innovation system 22–3 installation period/phase 23–4 ‘installed base’ of users (innovators) 61 Integrated Implementation Framework 140 interconnectedness of technological revolution 19 International Telecommunication Union (ITU) 32–3, 86, 141, 156 Internet: network expansion 109–34, 111–15, 116–21, 131, 132; networks on 3, 32, 34; penetration rates 87–9, 142, 172; population share 158–9 Internet Protocol subscriptions 80 Internet usage (IU): country-specific conditions 159; critical penetration rates 163; diffusion trajectories 113; growth coefficients 148–9; share of population 80, 110 investment freedom index 139 iron industry 28 ISDN voice-channel equivalents 80 Landes, David The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress (Mokyr) 9–10 logistic growth model 61, 99 Malthusian societies 16, 25 marginal growth in technology adoption 67 mass communication 29 Mediterranean countries 15 microprocessors 31, 51 mobile-broadband logistic growth model 124 mobile-cellular telephone subscription (MCS): country-specific data 143–8, 144–6, 152, 157; ICTs diffusion 79, 82, 87, 91, 93–109, 94–8, 100–1, 107, 143, 180; infrastructural shortages 4, 153; market competition 157; one-minute call pricing 140, 152–7, 166–74, 167, 174, 185–6; prices of 154–5; technological takeoff 102, 150–1, 164–5, 168–9, 182–6, 183, 184 mobile-cellular telephony network 155–6 mobile-infrastructure stage of development 129 mobile-(wireless) broadband technology 110 modern economic growth theory 27 Mokyr, J 9–10, 12, 26–7 multidimensionality of technological revolution 19 negative feedback 26, 57 neo-Schumpeterian economy 22 network effects 13, 34, 61–2 non-adopters in technology diffusion 54 non-Western economies not free countries 140, 158 one-minute call pricing 140, 152–7, 166–74, 167, 174, 185–6 partly free countries 140, 158 path-breaking technologies 14, 51 per capita income 30 Perspectives on Technology (Rosenberg) 50 pervasive technologies 11, 31–3 political freedom status 158 poorer economies, mobile-cellular subscription 103–5 pre-capitalism 16 pre-industrial societies 2, 25–6 pre-take-off stage (phase) 64, 64–5 productivity shifts 4, 16, 21, 23, 25, 34, 159 quasi-critical point 126 quasi-take-off 126 230 Index radical innovations 20, 23, 33, 48–9 repetitive activities in technology diffusion 50 Rosenberg, Nathan 50 Schumpeterian bandwagons 52 Schumpeterian-type creative destruction 19, 22 scientific excellence and technology 11 scientific paradigm 19–20 Second Technological Revolution 29 self-sustaining growth of ICT 151 Short Message Service (SMS) 140–1, 153, 166 sigmoid (S-shaped) pattern concept 53–60, 54, 56, 64, 67–8, 181 social networks 48, 61, 186 socio-economic systems: ICT development 32; introduction to 6, 10–13, 18–19; technology acceptance/rejection by 23; technology diffusion 49–50, 60, 62, 70; see also economic development space-related dynamics 49 Spinning Jenny 27 Standage, Tom steam engines 28–9 Szirmai, A 26 tacitness of technology 12 techno-economic paradigms 18–24, 33 technological congruence 18 technological leapfrogging 104–6, 108–9, 129, 133, 135, 181 technological persistence 14–15 technological revolutions: deployment phase in 24; Digital (ICT) Revolution 179; Fifth Technological Revolution 29, 31–6, 51; First Technological Revolution 3, 24–30; Fourth Technological Revolution 29; interconnectedness of 19; multidimensionality of 19; Second Technological Revolution 29; Third Technological Revolution 29 technological substitution 49, 53; see also fixed-to-mobile telephony substitution technological take-off: data explanation 139–41; defined 65–9, 67; ICTs direct determinants 156, 165–75, 167–8, 170–1; mobile-cellular telephone subscription 102, 150–1, 164–5, 168–9, 182–6, 183, 184; paths and pre-conditions 141–65, 144–6, 160–2; summary of 175–6 technology: acceptance/rejection by socio-economic systems 23; analog technologies 29, 31, 80, 110; assimilation of 12–13; borrowed technology 18; change/progress 10–14; communication systems 48; cotton industry technology 27; cutting-edge aspect of 11, 31–2, 49; defined 10–11; diffusion process 20, 48–69, 102, 123, 143, 182, 186; digital divide in accessibility 90–9, 134, 158, 169; digital technologies 31, 33, 133–4; disruptive technologies 12, 33; economic development and 14–15, 47–8; electronic processing of information 32; innovation system 22–3; ISDN voice-channel equivalents 80; logistic growth model 61, 99; marginal growth in technology adoption 67; microprocessors 31, 51; network effects 13, 34, 61–2; path-breaking technologies 14, 51; pervasive technologies 11, 31–3; productivity shifts 4, 16, 21, 23, 25, 34, 159; radical innovations 20, 23, 33, 48–9; social networks 48, 61, 186; system of 22; tacitness of 12; trial-and-error nature of 25; see also information and communication technologies; Internet usage (IU) technology development: English technology developments 27–8; fixedinfrastructure stage of development 105, 129; importance of 1, 9–18; Industrial Revolution 24–31; mobileinfrastructure stage of 129; socioeconomic systems 32; surges in 24–31; techno-economic paradigms 18–24, 33; wired-broadband networks development patterns 128 technology diffusion: adopters in 54; creative destruction of 19, 23, 70; critical mass in 55, 63, 67, 67–70; critical saturation rate 65–6, 68; critical year measures 65, 66, 68, 126, 142–3, 147–59, 163–5; dynamics of 47–61, 54, 56; endogenously technology diffusion 59, 60, 63; evolutionary models of 53, 60; exogenous technology diffusion 59; fast diffusion stage 12, 24, 55, 173; historical Index 231 technology diffusion 2; imitative activities in 50, 61; process of 61–70, 64, 67; repetitive activities in 50; sigmoid (S-shaped) pattern concept 53–60, 54, 56, 64, 67–8; technological take-off 65–9, 67; see also information and communication technologies (ICTs) diffusion patterns telecommunication market competition 139 Telecommunication Union Regulatory Framework 140 tempo of economic development 30 Third Technological Revolution 29 time-related dynamics 49 trial-and-error nature of technology 25 two-growth ‘pulses’ process 123 The Unbound Prometheus (Landes) United Nations (UN) 140 upper-middle-income economies: FBS diffusion 125–7; ICT diffusion patterns 77, 78, 81–6, 83, 90; ICTs direct determinants 156, 165–75, 167–8, 170–1; Internet usage rates 149–50; mobile-broadband logistic growth 128; mobile-cellular subscription 98–9, 100–1, 142, 147, 153–4, 159; summary of 180–7, 183, 184; technological take-off 164–5 urbanization rate 30, 174–5 The Victorian Internet: The Remarkable Story of the Telegraph and the Nineteenth Century’s On-Line Pioneers (Standage) Voltera-Lotka equation 53 Western economic domination 17 wired-broadband networks development patterns 128 World Bank 3, 32, 77 World Development Indicators (2016) 139 World Telecommunications/ICT Indicators 79, 166 years of miracles 27 Zhen-Wei Qiang, Christine ... Management and Valuation The Strategic and Geographical Dimension Edited by Grid Thoma 12 The Diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies Ewa Lechman The Diffusion of Information and Communication. . .The Diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies In recent decades, the world has witnessed—unprecedented in terms of speed and geographic coverage diffusion of new information and. .. approach and trace countrywide technological take-offs; we calculate the value of the critical mass and the length of the pre-take-off periods regarding ICT diffusion (mobile-cellular telephony and