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Chapter 4 - Estimating and forecasting demand. This chapter is organized as follows. We begin by examining sources of information that provide data for forecasts. These include consumer interviews and surveys, controlled market studies, and uncontrolled market data. Next, we explore regression analysis, a statistical method widely used in demand estimation. Finally, we consider a number of important forecasting methods.
Managerial Economics, 8e William F. Samuelson ● Stephen G. Marks Chapter four Estimating and Forecasting Demand Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved To count is a modern practice, the ancient method was to guess; and when numbers are guessed, they are always magnified ~Samuel Johnson I know half the money I spend on advertising is wasted, but I can never find out which half ~Lord Leverhulme of Unilever Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved For Discussion Estimating Movie Demand Making movies is a risky business Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Collecting data Consumer Surveys Survey Pitfalls New Coke Controlled Market Studies Uncontrolled Market Data Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Regression analysis Ordinary LeastSquares Regression Multiple Regression Interpreting Regression Statistics RSquared Adjusted RSquared The FStatistic Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Figure 4.1 four years of prices and quantities Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Regression analysis Interpreting Regression Statistics (cont.) Standard Errors of the Coefficients The tStatistic Standard Error of the Regression Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Regression analysis Potential Problems in Regression Equation Specification Omitted Variables Multicollinearity Simultaneity and Identification Other Problems Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Figure 4.2 Shifts in Supply and Demand Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Forecasting TimeSeries Models Fitting a Simple Trend The Effect of Today on Tomorrow Forecasting Cable TV Subscribers The Demand for Toys Seasonal Variation The Housing Bubble Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Figure 4.3 The Components of a Time Series Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Figure 4.4 Fitting a Trend to a Time Series Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Figure 4.5 Seasonal toy sales over Ten Years Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Forecasting Barometric Models Forecasting Performance Forecasting the Fate of Euro Disney Forecasting Accuracy Forecasting Performance Estimating Movie Demand Revisited Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Appendix to chapter 4 Regression Using Spreadsheets Simple Regression Step 1: Enter the data Step 2: Call up the regression program Step 3: Designate the columns of data to be used in the regression Step 4: Inform the program where you want the output Step 5: Run the regression Multiple Regression Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Table 4A.1 Regression Data Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Figure 4A.1 Regression Data Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Table 4A.2 Simple regression results Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Table 4A.3 Multiple regression results Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved ... Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Figure 4. 3 The Components of a Time Series Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Figure 4. 4 Fitting a Trend to a Time Series Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved... Figure 4A.1 Regression Data Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Table 4A.2 Simple regression results Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Table 4A.3... used in the regression Step 4: Inform the program where you want the output Step 5: Run the regression Multiple Regression Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Table 4A.1 Regression Data