Chapter 33 - Interest rates and monetary policy. After reading this chapter, you should be able to: Discuss how the equilibrium interest rate is determined in the market for money, list and explain the goals and tools of monetary policy, describe the Federal funds rate and how the Fed directly influences it, identify the mechanisms by which monetary policy affects GDP and the price level, explain the effectiveness of monetary policy and its shortcomings.
Chapter 33 Interest Rates and Monetary Policy McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Chapter Objectives • The equilibrium interest rate and the market for money • Monetary policy • How the Fed controls the Federal funds rate • How monetary policy affects GDP and the price level • Effectiveness of monetary policy and its shortcomings 33-2 Interest Rates • • • • Price paid for the use of money Many different interest rates Speak as if only one interest rate Determined by money supply and money demand 33-3 Demand for Money • Why hold money? • Transactions demand, D1 – Determined by nominal GDP – Independent of the interest rate • Asset demand, D2 – Money as a store of value – Varies inversely with the interest rate • Total money demand, D 33-4 Rate of interest, i percent Demand for Money (a) Transactions demand for money, Dt (c) Total demand for money, Dm and supply (b) Asset demand for money, Da 10 Sm 7.5 =5 + 2.5 Dt 50 100 Da 150 200 Amount of money demanded (billions of dollars) 50 100 150 200 Amount of money demanded (billions of dollars) Dm 50 100 150 200 250 300 Amount of money demanded and supplied (billions of dollars) 33-5 Interest Rates • Equilibrium interest rate – Changes with shifts in money supply and money demand • Interest rates and bond prices – Inversely related – Bond pays fixed annual interest payment – Lower bond price will raise the interest rate 33-6 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet • Assets – Securities – Loans to commercial banks • Liabilities – Reserves of commercial banks – Treasury deposits – Federal Reserve Notes outstanding 33-7 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet February 14, 2008 (in Millions) Assets Securities Loans to Commercial Banks All Other Assets Total Liabilities and Net Worth $713,369 60,039 111,689 $885,097 Reserves of Commercial Banks Treasury Deposits Federal Reserve Notes (Outstanding) All Other Liabilities and Net Worth Total $ 11,312 4,979 778,937 89,869 $885,097 Source: Federal Reserve Statistical Release, H.4.1, February 14, 2008 33-8 Central Banks Selected Nations Australia: Canada: Euro Zone: Japan: Mexico: Russia Sweden: United Kingdom: United States: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Bank of Canada European Central Bank (ECB) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Banco de Mexico (Mex Bank) Central Bank of Russia Sveriges Riksbank Bank of England Federal Reserve System (the “Fed”) (12 Regional Federal Reserve Banks) 33-9 Tools of Monetary Policy • Open market operations – Buying and selling of government securities (or bonds) – Commercial banks and the general public – Used to influence the money supply • When the Fed sells securities, commercial bank reserves are reduced 33-10 Tools of Monetary Policy • The reserve ratio – Changes the money multiplier • The discount rate – The Fed as lender of last resort – Short term loans • Term auction facility – Introduced December 2007 – Banks bid for the right to borrow reserves 33-13 Tools of Monetary Policy • Open market operations most important • Reserve ratio last changed 1992 • Discount rate was a passive tool • Term auction facility is new – Guaranteed amount lent by the Fed – Anonymous 33-14 The Federal Funds Rate • Rate charged by banks on overnight loans • Targeted by the Federal Reserve • FOMC conducts open market operations to achieve the target • Demand curve for Federal funds • Supply curve for Federal funds 33-15 The Federal Funds Rate Federal Funds Rate, Percent Using Open Market Operations 4.5 Sf3 4.0 Sf1 3.5 Sf2 Df Qf3 Qf1 Qf2 Quantity of Reserves 33-16 Monetary Policy • Expansionary monetary policy – Economy faces a recession – Lower target for federal funds rate – Fed buys securities – Expanded money supply – Downward pressure on other interest rates • Contractionary monetary policy 33-17 Taylor Rule • Rule of thumb for tracking actual monetary policy • Fed has 2% target inflation rate • If real GDP = potential GDP and inflation is 2% then target federal funds rate is 4% • Target varies as inflation and real GDP vary 33-18 Monetary Policy • Affect on real GDP and price level • Cause-effect chain – Market for money – Investment and the interest rate – Investment and aggregate demand – Real GDP and prices • Expansionary monetary policy • Restrictive monetary policy 33-19 (a) The market for money Sm1 Sm2 (c) Equilibrium real GDP and the Price level (b) Investment demand Sm3 AS P3 10 Price Level Rate of Interest, i (Percent) Monetary Policy and GDP P2 Dm AD3 I=$25 AD2 I=$20 AD1 I=$15 $125 $150 $175 Amount of money demanded and supplied (billions of dollars) ID $15 $20 $25 Amount of investment (billions of dollars) Q1 Qf Q3 Real GDP (billions of dollars) 33-20 Expansionary Monetary Policy Problem: unemployment and recession Fed buys bonds, lowers reserve ratio, lowers the discount rate, or increases reserve auctions Excess reserves increase Federal funds rate falls Money supply rises F E- ES UAC Interest rate falls Investment spending increases Aggregate demand increases Real GDP rises 33-21 Restrictive Monetary Policy Problem: inflation Fed sells bonds, increases reserve ratio, increases the discount rate, or decreases reserve auctions Excess reserves decrease Federal funds rate rises Money supply falls F E- ES UAC Interest rate rises Investment spending decreases Aggregate demand decreases Inflation declines 33-22 Monetary Policy • Advantages over fiscal policy – Speed and flexibility – Isolation from political pressure • Recent U.S monetary policy • Problems and complications – Recognition lag – Operational lag – Cyclical asymmetry 33-23 The Big Picture Input Resources With Prices Productivity Sources LegalInstitutional Environment Consumption (Ca) Aggregate Supply Levels of Output, Employment, Income, and Prices Aggregate Demand Investment (Ig) Net Export Spending (Xn) Government Spending (G) 33-24 The Mortgage Debt Crisis • • • • • • • Home mortgage default 2007 Banks write off bad loans Reserves reduced Fed as lender of last resort Term auction facility Fed lowered federal funds rate Mortgage backed securities as a new innovation – Bad incentives 33-25 Key Terms • • • • • • • • • monetary policy interest transactions demand asset demand total demand for money open-market operations reserve ratio discount rate term auction facility • Federal funds rate • expansionary monetary policy • prime interest rate • restrictive monetary policy • Taylor rule • cyclical asymmetry • mortgage debt crisis 33-26 Next Chapter Preview… Financial Economics 33-27 ... monetary policy • Taylor rule • cyclical asymmetry • mortgage debt crisis 3 3- 26 Next Chapter Preview… Financial Economics 3 3- 27 ... rate 3 3- 6 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet • Assets – Securities – Loans to commercial banks • Liabilities – Reserves of commercial banks – Treasury deposits – Federal Reserve Notes outstanding 3 3- 7... reduced 3 3- 10 Open Market Operations Fed buys $1,000 bond from a commercial bank New Reserves $1000 $1000 Excess Reserves $5000 Bank System Lending Total Increase in the Money Supply, ($5,000) 3 3- 11