DECISION SCIENCE FOR HOUSING AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science A complete list of the titles in this series appears at the end of this volume DECISION SCIENCE FOR HOUSING AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT Localized and Evidence-Based Responses to Distressed Housing and Blighted Communities MICHAEL P JOHNSON, PhD University of Massachusetts Boston JEFFREY M KEISLER, PhD University of Massachusetts Boston SENAY SOLAK, PhD University of Massachusetts Amherst DAVID A TURCOTTE, ScD University of Massachusetts Lowell ARMAGAN BAYRAM, PhD University of Michigan-Dearborn RACHEL BOGARDUS DREW, PhD Copyright © 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc All rights reserved Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey Published simultaneously in Canada No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as 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and blighted communities / Michael P Johnson, Jeffrey Keisler, Senay Solak, David Turcotte, Armagan Bayram, Rachel Bogardus Drew pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 978-1-118-97499-5 (cloth) Community development–United States–Decision making Urban renewal–United States–Decision making Housing rehabilitation–United States–Decision making I Title HN90.C6J64 2016 307.1′ 40973–dc23 2015014609 Cover image courtesy of Nancy Brammer/Getty and Dorann Weber/Getty Typeset in 11/13pt TimesLTStd by SPi Global, Chennai, India Printed in the United States of America 10 1 2016 CONTENTS PREFACE xiii FOREWORD xvii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xxiii AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES xxv LIST OF FIGURES xxix LIST OF TABLES xxxv Introduction: Community-Based Organizations, Neighborhood-Level Development, and Decision Modeling 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 Challenges and Opportunities for Housing and Community Development in the US, Community Development in the United States, Big Data, Analytics and Community Development, The Foreclosure Crisis: Problem, Impacts, and Responses, 11 Community-Based Operations Research: A Novel Approach to Support Local Development, 13 Why This Book Now?, 19 Book Description, 21 Conclusion, 24 vi CONTENTS SECTION POLICY AND PRACTICE IN FORECLOSED HOUSING AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT Foreclosed Housing Crisis and Policy and Planning Responses 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 29 Roots of the Foreclosed Housing Crisis, 29 Impacts of the Crisis, 32 2.2.1 Foreclosure Rates, 33 2.2.2 Home Equity and Wealth, 34 2.2.3 Health, Education, and Household Mobility, 36 2.2.4 Disamenities and Spillover Effects, 37 2.2.5 Market-Level Consequences, 38 Responses to the Crisis, 39 Effectiveness of Foreclosure Responses, 41 Opportunities for Decision Modeling Responses to the Foreclosed Housing Crisis, 43 Community Partners and Neighborhood Characteristics 3.1 3.2 27 45 Introduction, 45 Methodology, 46 3.2.1 Data Gathering Summary, 46 3.2.2 Triangulation, 47 3.2.3 Analysis, 48 Selection of Cases, 49 Case 1: The Neighborhood Developers, 50 3.4.1 Organization Type and Mission, 50 3.4.2 Organization Service Area and Population, 55 3.4.3 Organization Engagement with Foreclosure Crisis, 55 3.4.4 Organization Technical Capacity and Familiarity with Project’s Analytic Methods, 58 Case 2: Coalition for a Better Acre, 59 3.5.1 Organization Type and Mission, 59 3.5.2 Organization Service Area and Population Demographics, 59 3.5.3 Organization Engagement with Foreclosure Crisis, 61 3.5.4 Organization Technical Capacity and Familiarity with Project’s Analytic Methods, 62 Case 3: Codman Square Neighborhood Development Corporation, 63 3.6.1 Organization Type and Mission, 63 vii CONTENTS 3.6.2 3.7 3.8 3.9 Organization Service Area and Population Demographics, 63 3.6.3 Organization Engagement with Foreclosure Crisis, 64 3.6.4 Organization Technical Capacity and Familiarity with Project’s Analytic Methods, 67 Case 4: Twin Cities Community Development Corporation, 67 3.7.1 Organization Type and Mission, 67 3.7.2 Organization Service Area and Population Demographics, 68 3.7.3 Organization Engagement with Foreclosure Crisis, 68 3.7.4 Organization Technical Capacity and Familiarity with Project’s Analytic Methods, 70 Case Contrast and Discussion, 71 3.8.1 Role of Community Partners, 71 3.8.2 Adaptation of Case Study Theory for Our Project, 73 Conclusion, 74 Analytic Approaches to Foreclosure Decision Modeling 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Introduction, 75 Analysis of Community Partners and their Service Areas, 81 Localized Foreclosure Response, 94 Opportunities for Research-Based Analytic Responses to Foreclosures, 97 Solution Design for Community Development using Community-Based Operations Research, 102 Where Do We Go From Here?, 104 SECTION VALUES, METRICS AND IMPACTS FOR DECISION MODELING Value-Focused Thinking: Defining, Structuring and Using CDC Objectives in Decision Making 5.1 75 Introduction, 109 5.1.1 Overview, 109 5.1.2 Values and Objectives in Decisions, 109 5.1.3 Values and Objectives in Community-Based Organization/CDC Decisions, 110 5.1.4 Utility Functions and Decision Making, 111 5.1.5 Multiattribute Utility Functions, 112 5.1.6 Value-Focused Thinking, 114 107 109 viii CONTENTS 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Characteristics of Acquisition Opportunities: Strategic Value 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 5.1.7 VFT as Soft OR and Problem Structuring Method, 115 5.1.8 The Resource Allocation Decision Frame, 115 5.1.9 Plan, 118 Methods, 118 5.2.1 Linear Additive Assumption, 118 5.2.2 Defining the Mathematical Model as a Set of Linear Equations, 119 5.2.3 Structuring, 120 5.2.4 Obtaining Inputs, 122 Cases, 123 5.3.1 Simulated CDC, 123 5.3.2 Codman Square Neighborhood Development Corporation, 130 5.3.3 Twin Cities Community Development Corporation, 138 Common and Contingent Objectives for CDCs, 143 Lessons for Applying VFT to CBOs, 151 Introduction, 153 Problem Description, 155 6.2.1 Policy Motivation, 155 6.2.2 Theoretical Foundations, 157 Model Development, 159 6.3.1 Sets and Indexes, 159 6.3.2 Parameters and Functions, 160 6.3.3 Individual Resident Frame, 160 6.3.4 CDC Frame, 161 Case Study: The Neighborhood Developers, 162 6.4.1 Site Description, 162 6.4.2 Model Computations, 166 Discussion, 170 6.5.1 Policy Analysis, 170 6.5.2 Implications for Modeling and Practice, 171 Conclusion, 172 Characteristics of Acquisition Opportunities: Property Value 7.1 7.2 7.3 153 Introduction, 175 Property Value Changes as a Social Impact of Foreclosed Housing, 176 A Model of PVI for Foreclosed Housing, 178 175 INDEX A posteriori methods, 212, 333 Abandonment, 41, 82, 171 Accessibility, 43, 140, 155, 253, 255, 257 Accessible funds, 23, 248, 252, 254–259, 261–263, 265–267, 269, 271, 313 Achievement, 114, 116–120, 122, 134, 151, 300–301 Action research, 17–18, 101 Additivity, 119, 199, 310 Advocacy, 5–6, 13, 64, 81, 103, 132, 134, 136, 143–144, 147 Affordability, 51–52, 55, 68, 72, 131, 134–135, 144, 147 Aggregate transfers, 326 Algorithm, 14, 74, 220, 243 Allocation Minimum allocation rate, 280, 285, 311 Property allocation processes, 312 Resource allocation, 11, 14–15, 115–116, 131, 134, 136, 139, 151, 208, 274–277, 280–282, 289, 292–293, 303–305 Amenity, 8, 22, 51, 61, 67, 96, 124–126, 128, 131, 140, 145, 147–148, 154, 156–167, 170–172, 207, 215, 309; see also Strategic value (SVA) American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, Analytic Hierarchy Process, 333; see also Multiattribute decision making (MADM) Analytics Analytic methods, 10, 15–17, 20, 22, 46, 48, 58, 62, 67, 70, 74, 76, 80, 102, 104, 110, 112, 153, 212, 316–317, 330, 332–333 Analytics expertise, 314 Analytics-based approach, 245 Analytics-based solutions, 316 Data analytics, 9–10, 76, 101–102, 212, 308, 316 Antipoverty, Appreciation, 103, 250, 282 Articulating values, 309, 315 Assessment, 187, 215 Decision Science for Housing and Community Development: Localized and Evidence-Based Responses to Distressed Housing and Blighted Communities, First Edition Michael P Johnson, Jeffrey M Keisler, Senay Solak, David A Turcotte, Armagan Bayram and Rachel Bogardus Drew © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Published 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc 364 At-risk communities, Attribute Attribute values, 104, 291, 310, 313 CDC-defined attributes, 221 Housing attributes, 157–158, 207 Housing characteristics, 51, 53, 95, 202 Identifying attributes, 121, 315 Auction, 178, 181, 190–192, 203 Availability rates, 253, 263, 267–269, 271, 311 Bailout, 12, 30, 39 Base weights, 166, 168–169, 174, 221 Benchmark, 265, 303 Bidding design, 313 Bidding policies, 313 Bidding strategies, 311, 315 Biobjective Biobjective decision model, 154 Biobjective knapsack problem, 208, 215, 218, 221, 243, 317 Biobjective optimization model, 310 Bisection algorithm, 220 Blight Blighted communities, Blighted neighborhoods, Blighting conditions, 210 Blighting influences, 151 Physical blight, 22, 80, 104 Boston (MA) metropolitan area, 22, 47, 76, 81 Brainstorming, 130, 138–139 Budget Budget allocation, 100, 275, 277–278, 280, 287, 292–294, 311 Budgetary limits, 213 Business model, 55, 61, 81, 97, 211 Buyer, 64, 66, 178, 181, 210 Capacity Capacity building, 16–17, 143 Community capacity, 17, 83, 147, 312 Community development capacity, 209 Housing development capacity, 59 Internal capacity, 210 Technical capacity, 22, 45, 50, 58, 62–63, 67, 70, 82, 316 INDEX Case study Case study methodology, 45, 74, 307–308, 314 Case study research, 45–48, 73 Multiple case study, 49 Quasi-case study, 22, 44, 309 Chelsea (MA), 45–46, 49–51, 55, 57–58, 61, 71–72, 85–87, 89, 93–94, 164, 171–173, 186–191, 193, 195–197, 200, 203, 213, 222–224, 234–236 Choice Neighborhoods, Choice set, 79, 170, 220, 333 Citizens Housing and Planning Association (CHAPA), 41, 48–49, 63, 67, 79, 199 Cluster, 195, 197–198, 204, 238 Clustering effect, 194, 197, 204 Coalition for a Better Acre (CBA), 45–49, 51–52, 59–63, 71–73, 85, 93–94, 118, 123, 163, 210–211, 315; see also Community partner Codman Square (Boston, MA), 45, 53–54, 63–65, 72–73, 85, 93–94, 118, 130–132, 137, 144–145, 162, 259–261, 263, 265, 267, 269, 271, 273, 313, 315 Codman Square Neighborhood Development Corporation (CSNDC), 45, 47, 50, 53–54, 63–67, 71–74, 85, 112, 118, 126, 130–133, 135, 137–139, 146, 152, 162, 259, 273, 289, 312; see also Community partner Collaboration Collaboration, 2, 14, 43, 78, 100, 121, 152, 209, 211 Cross-sector collaborations, 212 Multisite collaborations, 314 Collaborative learning, 17 Community change, 17 Community characteristics, 11, 51, 53 Community conditions, 24 Community development Community development movement, 7, 49 Community development practitioners, 8, 213 Community development theory, 21 INDEX Community development corporation (CDC), 22–23, 45–48, 50, 53, 57, 59, 63, 67, 69, 71, 74, 85, 93–94, 109–114, 118, 123–125, 127–131, 133, 135, 137–138, 140–147, 151, 153–174, 178, 180–181, 184, 186–188, 190, 195, 197–202, 207–208, 211–216, 218–224, 228, 233–236, 243, 245, 247–261, 263, 265, 267–269, 275, 277–278, 281, 286, 289–293, 295, 297, 299, 301–304, 308–313, 315, 323–325, 330–331, 334; see also Community-based organization (CBO) Community engagement, 2–4, 8, 20, 315 Community health, 8, 10, 24 Community operational research, 15, 101, 309, 315–316 Community organizing, 5, 57, 64, 68, 81, 96, 148 Community partner, 22–23, 81, 85–86, 94, 121–123, 153–154, 190, 213, 309, 317; see also Coalition for a Better Acre (CBA); Codman Square Neighborhood Development Corporation (CSNDC); The Neighborhood Developers (TND); Twin Cities Community Development Corporation (TCCDC) Community stabilization and revitalization, 102, 309 Community stakeholders, 94, 167 Community-based operations research (CBOR), 1, 13, 19, 21, 24, 44, 74, 80, 101–102, 104, 244, 307–308, 312–313, 315–320 Community-based organization (CBO), 4, 8, 10, 18–19, 22, 75, 80–81, 110–111, 274; see also Community development corporation (CDC) Community-based participatory research, 319 Community-focused data, 318 Community-focused decision modeling, 312 Community-focused practitioners, 319 Competition, 14, 66, 70, 73, 78, 100, 186, 211 Compromise point, 225–226, 236–237 Compromise solutions, 220–221, 228, 236, 238, 243 Constraint methods, 332 365 Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, 42 Contagion, 38, 41, 156, 193–195, 286 Corner solution, 228, 324 Cost-benefit analysis, 13, 176, 208, 213, 326 Cost-burdened, Criteria, 4, 30, 95, 102, 117, 155, 165, 181, 213, 276, 324–325, 327–330, 333; see also Multicriteria decision modeling Critical fund level, 256–257, 259, 263, 265, 268–269, 313 Critical perspective, 16, 318 Critical research, 316 Critical time, 256, 259, 268–269 Current, 177, 182, 188, 220; see also Foreclosure life cycle; Foreclosure stages Data analysis, 10, 98, 308, 315–316 Data mining, 330 Data-guided management, 10 Decision Continuous decision variables, 331 Decision aid methods, 333 Decision alternatives, 22, 79, 115, 122, 248, 313, 315, 330, 333 Decision analysis, 99, 111, 117, 120, 153, 248, 317, 334 Decision frame, 115, 139, 310 Decision maker, 109–112, 114–116, 119, 122–123, 126, 134, 153, 212, 215, 225–226, 228, 275, 324, 326–328, 333–334 Decision making, 3, 15, 18, 21–22, 44, 46, 74, 109, 111, 114–115, 251, 271, 276, 297, 318, 329–331 Decision making under uncertainty, 21, 251 Decision models, 14, 17–18, 20–23, 46, 71, 74, 85, 94, 100, 102, 118, 126, 151, 153, 155, 162, 175–176, 201–202, 208, 214, 220, 245, 273–274, 292, 302, 310, 312–320, 323, 333–335, 337 Decision opportunities, 245, 315; see also Value-focused thinking (VFT) Decision science, 1, 6, 29, 45, 75, 109, 153, 175, 207, 247, 273, 307–309, 323, 329 Decision support, 13, 47, 80, 103 366 Decision (continued) Decision theory, 21, 111, 114, 333 Decision tree, 334–337; see also Decision analysis Decision variable, 120, 126, 136, 154, 214, 329, 331 Decision-modeling approaches, 16, 22, 74, 104, 244, 307 Multiple decision periods, 245, 331, 333 Quantitative decision models, 23 Decision space, 23, 208, 221, 229, 231, 239, 243–244, 310, 332; see also Objective space Default, 32–33, 37–39, 41, 77, 176, 182, 190; see also Foreclosure life cycle; Foreclosure stages Delinquency, 6, 12, 34, 76, 95, 98, 177, 179–181, 189–190, 312 Delinquent, 40, 76, 177; see also Foreclosure life cycle; Foreclosure stages Demographics, 7, 50–51, 53, 59, 63, 68 Demolition, 7, 72, 100, 180, 209–210 Density, 55, 64, 84, 93–94, 104, 149, 156, 180, 191, 199, 271 Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), 12, 39, 52, 54, 70, 73, 95, 320 Deregulation, 11, 31 Descriptive Descriptive analysis, Descriptive analytics, 316 Descriptive models, 13 Developer, 8, 66, 158, 334 Development Development decision, 127, 134–136, 173 Economic development, 2, 4, 7–8, 24, 63, 68, 81, 96, 137, 320–321 Human capital development, 7–8, 24 Local development, 9, 13, 121 Most preferred development alternative, 212 Physical capital development, 7–8, 24 Property development, 20, 127, 134 Quasi-public development entities, 209 Transit-oriented development, 6, 8, 63 Urban community development, Urban economic development, 321 Urban housing and community development, 321 INDEX Direct action, 6, 13 Disamenity, 22, 34, 37, 67, 156–167, 170–172, 177, 207, 215, 309 Discount rate, 178, 189–191, 194, 199–200, 253, 263 Discrimination, 12 Disinvestment, 34, 37, 101, 190 Displacement, 121, 132, 134, 137, 144, 146–147 Distress Distressed communities, 150, 158, 212, 308, 320 Distressed homeowners, 32, 41 Distressed housing, 6, 274 Distressed neighborhoods, 29, 44, 50, 76 Distressed property, 38, 59, 177, 184–185 Mortgage distress, 38 Resident distress, 22, 80, 104 Diversity, 21, 47, 50, 57, 71, 85, 132, 135, 144, 147 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act), 12, 42–43 Dorchester (Boston, MA), 50, 53, 63, 85, 87, 91, 93–94, 210 Downturn, 5, 38–39, 43 Early childhood interventions, 8, 24 Economic efficiency, 213, 244–245, 324 Economic mobility, 16 Economic opportunity, 2, 9, 21 Economic progress, 75 Economically disadvantaged neighborhoods, 18 Education, 1–2, 8–9, 12, 16, 36–37, 76–77, 81, 83, 96, 102, 319 Effectiveness, 25, 29, 41–42, 44, 73, 81, 103, 138, 211, 271, 274, 302, 304, 308, 311, 316 Efficacy, 97, 278, 280, 291, 297, 299, 311, 318 Efficiency, 14, 16, 20, 23, 25, 81, 103, 124, 126, 144, 146–147, 158, 202, 213, 244–245, 258, 271, 273–274, 289, 302, 304, 308, 311, 324, 326 Efficiency-enhancing policies, 326 ELECTRE, 333; see also Multiattribute decision making (MADM) Elicitation, 114, 119–120, 123 INDEX Employment, 1, 8, 38–39, 76, 102 Engagement, 2–4, 8, 20, 47, 50, 55, 57, 61, 64, 68, 73–74, 94, 103, 150, 153, 163, 244, 308, 312, 315, 318 Equality, 2, 158 Equity, 5, 12, 15–17, 20, 23, 25, 33–36, 63, 81, 176, 198, 208, 213, 233, 243–245, 273, 280–281, 293, 295, 297–300, 303–304, 311–314, 318 Evidence-based, 1, 4, 22, 29, 45, 75, 109, 153, 175, 207, 247, 273, 304, 307–308, 320, 323, 329 Expected value, 261, 276, 283, 296, 298, 337 Externalities, 131, 156, 175, 178, 180 Facilitated modeling, 16 Facility, 2, 14, 77, 79, 100 Fairness, 16, 213, 324 Fannie Mae, 11–12, 29–30, 39; see also Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) Federal Housing Administration (FHA), 12, 29 Financial resources, 25, 58, 64, 145, 220, 335 Financial returns, 281, 285, 291, 297, 299, 303, 313 First Look Program, 70, 73, 199, 249 First-time homebuyers, 13 Flipping, 8, 57 Focus groups, 47 Foreclosed Foreclosed housing, 4–6, 13, 18, 20–24, 27, 29–32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42–47, 49, 55, 61, 64, 66, 72, 74–75, 79–81, 93, 99, 102, 104–105, 121, 150, 153–154, 156, 162–163, 172, 175–179, 182, 191–192, 202, 207–219, 222–224, 226–228, 234–238, 243–244, 247–249, 251, 254, 256–259, 265, 271, 273–275, 281–282, 308, 310–311, 314, 323–324, 329, 331, 333 Foreclosed housing crisis, 4–5, 13, 21, 24, 29–32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42–44, 75, 308 Foreclosed properties, 13, 23, 36–37, 40–41, 48, 50, 52, 54, 57–58, 61–62, 64, 66, 70–71, 77, 85, 93, 98, 151, 155, 158–159, 164, 166–167, 171, 367 175–177, 179–181, 186, 190, 194–197, 199–200, 202–203, 209, 211, 248–250, 256, 259–260, 263, 267, 269, 275, 278, 282, 285, 289, 293, 295, 313, 319, 331–332 Foreclosed housing acquisition problem Foreclosed housing acquisition problem (FHAP), 212, 222–224, 227–228, 234–236, 251, 256, 258, 273, 275–277, 279, 282–284, 286–287, 291–292, 295–302, 311 FHAP with gradual uncertainty resolution (FHAP-G), 282–283, 291, 295–302, 311 FHAP with simple resource allocation (FHAP-S), 277, 279, 284, 291–292, 295–302, 311 Foreclosure Foreclosure crisis, 5, 9, 11, 13, 20–21, 23, 29, 32, 36, 38–44, 47, 49–50, 55, 61–62, 64, 68, 71, 76, 82, 155, 211, 247–248, 271, 307–308, 318, 320 Foreclosure impact risk, 82, 84, 94, 312 Foreclosure interventions, 77, 85 Foreclosure life cycle, 310 Foreclosure mitigation, 41, 155 Foreclosure prevention, 12, 40, 63, 76–77, 80, 95, 155, 319 Foreclosure recovery timeline, 312 Foreclosure response, 5, 18–19, 22, 24, 41, 46–47, 71, 74, 76–80, 82, 84, 93–95, 97, 99–102, 104, 109–110, 121, 150–151, 209–210, 227, 244–245, 307–308, 310, 312, 318–321 Foreclosure stages, 182, 188, 207 Housing foreclosures, 5, 22, 55, 80, 104, 274 Impacts of foreclosures, Localized foreclosure response, 19 Place-based foreclosure responses, 80 Frame; see also Strategic value (SVA) CDC frame, 160–161, 163, 166–169, 174, 215–216, 218–219, 221, 228, 233 Resident frame, 160, 163, 166–167, 169, 228 Freddie Mac, 11–12, 30, 39; see also Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) 368 Fund expiration, 253, 256–259, 261–262, 264–267, 270–271 Fundraising, 14, 81, 100 Funds availability, 313 Gateway cities, 5, 34 Generating methods, 212 Gentrification, 7, 121, 320–321 Geographic information systems (GIS), 59, 67, 71, 98, 110, 165, 187, 215, 291, 309, 315 Goals Acquisition goals, 57, 61 Redevelopment goals, 211 Government stakeholders, 46–48 Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), 11, 30, 32, 43 Gradual uncertainty resolution, 282, 304 Great Depression, 12, 32 Hazardous, 14, 140, 145–146, 148 Health-care delivery, 14 Hedonic, 157, 177 Heuristic, 286–287, 299, 301–302, 304, 311 Hierarchy, 114–115, 117, 119–120, 122, 124, 128, 140, 333; see also Value-focused thinking (VFT) High-amenity neighborhoods, 20 Hispanic, 2, 35, 50–51, 53, 55, 59, 63, 68, 71–72, 93 Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), 39, 41–42 Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), 39, 42 Home buying, 11, 29, 31 Home equity, 34 Homeless, 36 Homeowner Homeowner counseling, 5, 319 Homeownership, 7, 11, 30–32, 58, 68, 70, 76–77, 95, 129, 137–138, 146, 155 Homeownership opportunities, 11, 155 Homeownership rate, 11, 30–32, 146 HOPE NOW, 12, 39, 41–42 House prices, 29, 32, 34, 38–39, 95, 177, 282 Housing Affordable housing, 2, 4, 7, 9, 19–20, 55, 59, 61–62, 68, 156, 158, 210, 320 High-quality housing, INDEX Housing and community development, 1, 13–14, 19, 21–22, 27, 29, 44–45, 49, 75, 102, 104, 109, 121, 151, 153, 175, 207, 244, 247, 273, 307, 314, 317–318, 320–321, 323, 329 Housing and shelter, 83, 312 Housing construction, 12, 39, 75 Housing development, 2, 5, 7, 18, 20, 46, 59, 67–68, 80, 104, 150, 153–154, 162, 176, 213 Housing location, 13, 19, 158 Housing mobility planning, 13 Housing mortgage portfolios, 12 Housing policy, 21, 43, 211 Housing portfolio management, 313 Housing production scheme, 331 Housing search, 13 Housing wealth, 34 Housing acquisition Acquisition and disposition plan, 209 Acquisition and redevelopment costs, 159, 233 Acquisition candidates, 62, 80, 154, 173, 186, 193–198, 201–202, 204, 214, 216, 218, 220, 228, 309, 314 Acquisition decisions, 22–23, 73, 96, 166, 171–173, 202, 218, 225–226, 247, 267, 273, 275–279, 282, 286, 297, 301, 303, 311–313 Acquisition policies, 23, 74, 248, 253, 257, 267, 271, 303, 313 Acquisition strategy, 23, 51, 53, 58, 171, 210, 224, 238, 243, 245, 253, 281 Bulk acquisition strategy, 210 Bulk acquisitions, 210 Equitable housing acquisitions, 23 Foreclosed housing acquisition, 5–6, 18, 21–24, 46–47, 49, 61, 66, 72, 79–81, 99, 102, 105, 153–154, 156, 163, 175–176, 182, 202, 208–213, 215–219, 222–224, 226–228, 234–238, 243–244, 248–249, 251, 254, 256–259, 271, 273, 275, 281–282, 311, 314, 323–324, 331 Potential acquisitions, 248, 271, 311, 315 Strategic acquisition, 23, 64, 273–274, 276, 278, 280, 282, 284, 286, 290, 292, 294, 296, 298, 300, 302, 304, 313; see also Strategic value (SVA) INDEX Tactical acquisition, 247, 273, 275–276, 278–279; see also Bidding strategies Human services, 7, 9, 81, 83, 96, 210, 312 Humanitarian logistics, 14, 99–100 Impact investing, 319 Implementation, 5, 10, 14, 17, 76, 81, 97, 102, 120, 142, 157, 211, 261, 263, 265, 274, 289, 302, 304, 309, 311, 319, 327; see also Community-based operations research (CBOR) Incentives, 39, 42, 58, 176 Inclusion, 165, 295, 297, 302 Indifference curve, 327–328 Inequality, 2–3, 15, 103, 285, 287, 318 Informal institutions, 16 Information technology, 4, 101, 316 Infrastructure, 210, 318 Innovation, 5, 34, 183 Interactive methods, 333 Investors, 32, 39, 64, 66, 70, 140, 145–146, 148, 186, 249, 274, 319 Justice, 1–2, 25, 103, 146–150 Kaldor-Hicks rule, 225–226, 326 Key informant, 47, 73 Knapsack problem, 208, 215, 218, 221, 243–244, 317 Land bank, 13, 77, 94, 209–210 Landfills, 155 Landlords, 58, 64, 209 Large-scale demolitions, 13 Lender, 11, 29–30, 32, 38–43, 58, 66, 76, 178, 181–182, 188, 209–210, 249–250, 253 Leominster (MA), 53, 67–68, 70, 72–73, 85, 87, 92–94, 118 Linear Linear additive assumption, 118, 136 Linear additive function, 126 Linear additive property, 129 Linear effect, 192 Linear function, 119, 269 Linear programming, 333 Linear utility scale, 127 Piecewise linear structure, 286 Local empowerment, 316 369 Local Initiatives Support Corporation (LISC), 7, 43, 82, 85, 98 Local interventions, Local investment strategies, 24 Localized problems, Loss mitigation, 12 Low-income Low-income communities, 12, 50 Low-income households, 31 Low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC), 59, 66–67 Lowell (MA), 20, 46, 48–49, 51, 59, 61–62, 71–72, 85–88, 94, 118, 123–124, 128–129, 134–135, 244 Making Home Affordable Program, 12 Management science, 5, 14, 16, 21, 74, 76–77, 79–80, 97, 213, 247, 316, 320, 330 Marginal rate of substitution, 328 Marginal rate of transformation, 328 Marginal value, 119, 256–257, 259, 261–262, 266 Market strength, 82, 84–92, 94, 180, 201, 312 Market Value Analysis (MVA), 84, 95, 173 Markov chain, 182–184, 200–201, 207, 310 Markov decision process (MDP), 251 Markov transition matrix, 188, 207 Massachusetts Housing Investment Corporation (MHIC), 48–49, 62 Mathematical modeling, 17, 209, 247 Mattapan (Boston), 63, 91, 93 Maximization, 19–20, 99, 255, 280–281, 285, 297, 299, 309–311 Mediation, 40–41 Metaheuristic methods, 333 Minority segregation, Mission focus, 210 Mission type, 18 Mitigation, 12, 41, 155 Mixed-methods, 17, 21–22, 101, 153, 314, 316–317 Mobility, 3, 13, 16, 19, 36, 100 Model prescriptions, 103, 311 Model structural parameters, 218, 245 Mortgage purchasers, 13 Mortgage securitization, 11 Mortgage-based securities (MBS), 30, 32 370 Most-preferred solution, 327, 331–333 Multiattribute Multiattribute decision making (MADM), 329–330, 333–334 Multiattribute utility, 112, 114, 123, 126, 334 Multiattribute utility function (MAUF), 114 Multicriteria, 21, 117, 124, 126, 171, 198, 208, 212–213, 215, 217, 219, 221, 244, 329–330, 332, 334, 336 Multicriteria decision modeling, 208, 221, 329–330, 332, 334, 336 Multifamily, 20, 52, 54, 61–62, 64, 67, 75, 96, 215, 275 Multiobjective Linear discrete multiobjective optimization, 212, 331 Multiobjective decision making (MODM), 329–331 Multiobjective linear programs, 212 Multiobjective optimization, 13, 207–208, 212, 218, 221, 244–245, 331–333 Multiperiod, 21, 199, 274 Multiple constraints, 331 Multiple interventions, Multiple stakeholders, 16, 24, 79, 102 Multistage, 79, 275–276, 282–283, 285, 304, 334 N-stage transition probabilities, 184 Natural resources management, 14 Negative externalities, 175, 178, 180 Neighborhood Neighborhood amenity, 158 Neighborhood change, 16, 19, 102 Neighborhood characteristics, 22, 45–46, 48, 50, 56, 58, 60, 62, 64, 66, 68, 70, 72, 74, 97–98, 158, 165, 176 Neighborhood features, 136, 154, 156, 158, 164–165, 171–172 Neighborhood revitalization, 55, 75, 154, 158, 198 Neighborhood stabilization, 7, 12, 18, 40–41, 50, 55, 57, 61, 64, 71, 78–79, 95, 98, 156, 159, 166, 171–173, 181, 199, 202, 211, 220, 247–248, 257, 273 Neighborhood-level variation, 180 INDEX Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP), 7, 12, 40, 42, 61, 66, 71, 78, 95, 181, 199, 211, 220, 257 NeighborWorks America, 36, 40, 43, 95, 111, 248, 295 Network Means-ends network, 114, 120, 122, 140 Objectives network, 114, 117, 119–121, 123–124, 130–132, 134, 136, 138–140, 146 Nondistressed property, 178, 189 Nondominated solutions Adjacent nondominated solutions, 220, 225 Nondominated solutions, 154, 208, 212, 220–221, 224–225, 228, 314, 332 Nonlinear effects, 201 Nonlocation-specific neighborhood characteristics, 165 Nonprofit Nonprofit operations, 14, 100, 313 Nonprofit operations management, 14, 100, 313 Nonprofit organizations, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12–14, 20, 40, 50, 78, 81–83, 103, 199, 209, 271, 297, 313, 315, 318 Numeric targets, 213, 218 Objective Efficiency objective, 20 Ends objective, 116, 133 Equity objective, 20, 208 Financial objective, 295–297, 303, 312 Fundamental objective, 116–117, 122, 124, 131, 133, 139, 154 Intermediate objective, 117, 126, 133, 135–136 Means objective, 116, 122, 133, 136 Nonfinancial objective, 295–297, 303 Nonlinear objective function, 331 Objectives, 109–112, 114–126, 128, 130–140, 143–147, 149–152; see also Value-focused thinking (VFT) Objectives hierarchy, 114–115, 117, 120, 122, 140; see also Values hierarchy Social objective, 13, 20, 97, 102, 297, 303, 313 Objective space, 23, 221–222, 226–227, 228, 233, 234, 237, 244, 310, 314, 332; see also Decision Space INDEX Occupancy, 64, 68, 70, 97, 281, 285, 297, 299, 304, 311 Offer decision, 250, 253, 259 Operating characteristics, 213 Operational constraints, 330 Operations management, 14, 21, 46, 77, 100, 307, 313, 317 Operations research, 1, 5, 13–17, 19, 21, 29, 44, 74, 77, 79–80, 97, 101–102, 152, 175, 244, 247, 254, 307, 316, 320, 330 Opportunity costs, 326 Optimal overbid rate, 254–255, 258, 265 Optimal solutions, 105, 311 Optimality gap, 304, 311–312 Optimization Math optimization model, 244–245, 310 Process optimization, 316 Vector optimization, 330, 332 Organization design, 22–23, 45 Organization engagement, 55, 61, 64, 68 Organizational mission, 50, 152 Outcomes, 2–4, 9–12, 24, 37, 43, 62, 67, 76, 78, 102, 111–112, 116, 124–126, 144, 148, 154, 171, 175, 183, 197, 200–202, 207, 277, 310, 313, 318, 333–335, 337 Outranking methods, 333 Overbid rate, 250, 252, 254–265, 269–270 Pareto analysis Actual Pareto efficiency, 326 Actual Pareto frontier, 326 Pareto efficient, 323 Pareto improvements, 317, 326 Pareto inferior, 324–325 Pareto nonoptimal, 323 Pareto optimal, 323–325, 332 Pareto superior, 323, 325 Pareto-improving, 208, 224, 226–227, 237–238, 243, 310, 314, 326–327 Pareto-improving compromise solution, 226–227, 238, 310, 314 Pareto-inefficient, 326 Potential Pareto efficiency, 326 Potential Pareto frontier, 325–327 Potential Pareto-improving region, 227, 310, 314, 326 Strictly Pareto improving, 325 Participation, 16, 39, 42, 101, 129 Performance metrics, 110, 317, 330 Physical context, 318 371 Place-based initiatives, Planning City and regional planning agencies, 209 Urban and regional planning, 98, 307, 317, 320 Urban planning, 15, 21, 67 Planning horizon, 207, 243, 250–251, 257, 267, 271, 275, 277, 282, 313 Policy Policy advocacy, 13 Policy analysis, 13, 119, 155, 170, 201, 208, 212, 253, 255, 257, 323–328 Policy design, Policy development, 199 Policy goals, 61 Policy guidelines, 303, 311 Public policy, 21, 98, 307, 317–318 Political economy, 209, 318 Portfolio of properties, 23, 245, 247–248, 250, 252, 254, 256, 258, 260, 262, 264, 266, 268, 270 Possibility frontier, 325 Potential production schemes, 324–325, 331 Poverty, 2, 4, 6–7, 10, 15, 34, 51, 53, 55, 59, 63, 68, 146, 166, 210, 289 Predictive analysis, Preferences, 110–112, 114, 116, 118, 122, 225, 309, 327, 330–331, 333 Prescriptive Prescriptive analyses, 44, 315 Prescriptive analytics, 80, 104–105, 316–317, 330 Prescriptive models, 8, 13–14, 22–23, 97, 153, 208, 312–313, 323 Prevention, 12, 40–41, 63, 76–77, 80–81, 95, 155, 319 Priorities, 7, 77, 100, 113, 154–155, 157, 167–168, 172–173, 215, 274–275, 305, 317 Private developers, 58, 62, 70, 211, 213 Probability distribution, 184, 250, 278 Problem formulation, 16; see also Community-based operations research (CBOR) Problem identification, 15–16, 47; see also Community-based operations research (CBOR) 372 Problem solution, 16; see also Community-based operations research (CBOR) Problem structuring methods (PSMs), 15, 21, 115; see also Soft OR Production schedule, 324–325 Profit Profit maximization, 20, 99 Total expected profit, 281, 311 Program evaluation, 11 Progressive methods, 333 Project selection, 11 Promise Neighborhoods, Property acquisition, 5, 23, 95, 154, 156, 207–208, 214, 247–249, 254, 257, 261, 275, 303–304, 310–311, 320 Property availability, 263, 271, 277, 289–290, 311 Property demolition, 210 Property ownership, 30, 39 Property value, 12, 22–23, 38, 145, 149, 154, 156, 175–180, 182, 184–186, 188–192, 194, 196–198, 200, 202, 204, 207–208, 213–215, 219, 221–222, 225, 228, 233–237, 245, 248–249, 262, 277, 310, 313–314, 317–318 Property value impact Aggregate PVI, 176, 198, 215 Property value impact (PVI), 22, 176, 180, 184–193, 195–204, 207, 215, 218–220, 225–226, 237, 250–271, 277–278, 282, 286, 289, 291, 310–311, 313–314 Property value losses, 176–177, 180, 186, 190, 197–198, 314 Proximate Proximate properties, 38, 176, 178–180, 185, 187, 189–191, 199, 202, 304 Proximate property values, 177–178, 180, 184, 187–188, 190, 200–201, 277, 289 Proximity, 20, 22, 38, 61, 154, 156–158, 160, 166, 172–173, 184, 198, 200, 207, 215, 233, 244, 280, 289, 309 Public safety, 2, Public sector operations research, 14, 29 Pull factors, 157–159; see also Strategic value (SVA) Purchase opportunities, 211 INDEX Push factors, 157–159; see also Strategic value (SVA) Qualitative methods, 74 Quality of life, 6, 24, 33, 63, 98, 131, 139–140, 143–145, 156, 213, 228, 317, 324 Quantitative methods, 15, 105, 309 Real estate Real estate development expertise, 315 Real estate professionals, 95, 314 Real estate returns, 183 Transaction, 77, 157, 178, 188, 192 Real estate-owned (REO), 37, 58–59, 61–62, 64, 95, 177–178, 181–184, 188–192, 198, 203, 211, 319; see also Foreclosure life cycle; Foreclosure stages Reallocation, 282–283, 285, 299, 311 Receivership, 70, 73 Recession, 7, 12, 21, 24, 32–34, 36, 39 Recovery, 7, 14, 41, 43, 77, 312 Recursion, 251–252, 254, 258 Redevelopment Foreclosed housing redevelopment, 49 Neighborhood redevelopment planning, 154 Property redevelopment, 156 Refinance, 5, 12–13, 39, 42, 77, 181 Rehabilitation, 5, 20, 49, 61–62, 66, 70, 79, 96, 214 Relocation, 36–37, 58, 62, 319 Relocation assistance, 319 Remediation, 40, 50 Renovation, 12–13, 82, 96, 271, 331 Rent-back mechanisms, 210 Rental, 13, 20, 36, 58–59, 61–64, 66, 68, 70, 72–73, 77, 82, 96–97, 117, 124–125, 128, 134, 136–138, 154–155, 183, 271, 319, 331 Resale, 5, 13, 154, 189, 331 Restrictions, 12, 42, 62, 220, 243 Revere (MA), 51, 55, 57–58, 61, 71–72, 85–87, 89, 93–94 Revitalization, 9, 18, 55, 59, 68, 75, 98–99, 102, 121, 154, 158, 198, 247, 273, 309 Scalar methods, 333 Scale economies, 20, 194–195, 311 INDEX Scenario, 127, 129, 135, 137, 276–279, 281, 283, 285–286, 317 Second-order effects, 179–180, 199 Secondary mortgage market, 30 Segmentation, 12 Segregation, Selectivity, 263, 267, 269, 271 Sellers, 12 Sensitivity analysis, 127, 152, 263, 267, 293, 302 Sequential, 251, 276, 330 Service area, 22, 45, 49–51, 53, 55–56, 59–60, 63–65, 67–69, 72, 85, 87, 93, 127, 151, 154, 164–166, 186–187, 209, 247–248, 260, 265, 274, 289–290, 292, 297, 303, 311, 324 Set partitioning problem, 195 Severely cost-burdened, Smart decline, 320 Smart shrinkage, 320 Social Aggregate social gain, 226 Marginal social return, 311 Social change, 16–18, 20, 101, 316, 318 Social disorder, 96, 175, 178 Social equity, 243, 245 Social impact, 8, 173, 175–177, 199, 208, 238, 318–319 Social mission, 20, 96 Social mobility, Social policy, 15, 238 Social processes, 15 Social progress, 10 Social return, 250–251, 277, 281–282, 286–287, 291, 311 Social services, 8, 319 Social stability, 21 Social technologies, 318 Social value, 202, 208, 213–214, 227, 237–238, 243–244, 247, 251, 292, 303, 310 Social value added (of decision models for housing acquisition), 237, 243 Soft OR, 15, 101, 115, 122, 152, 309, 318 Soft systems methodologies, 15; see also Soft OR Spatial Spatial analysis, 80, 104 Spatial clustering, 228 373 Spatial datasets, 315 Spatial statistics, 177 Spatial variation, 208, 228, 233 Speculators, 140, 145–146, 148 Spillover, 37–38, 41, 175, 178 Stability, 3, 7, 9, 12, 18, 21, 33, 36, 40–41, 50, 55, 57, 61, 63–64, 71, 78–79, 95, 98, 102, 112, 117, 121, 124–125, 129, 132, 134, 136, 140, 144–145, 149, 156, 159, 166, 171–173, 181, 199, 202, 211, 220, 247–248, 257, 273, 309, 320 Stakeholder, 11, 16, 22, 49, 81, 101, 129, 152 State space, 183–184 State transition, 183 Status quo point, 221–227, 233, 236–238, 310, 314, 324–326 Status quo properties, 228, 233 Stochastic modeling Discrete-time stochastic process, 182 Multiobjective stochastic mixed-integer optimization, 334 Stochastic decision model, 312–313 Stochastic dynamic optimization model, 311 Stochastic dynamic programming, 202, 251 Stochastic integer programming (SIP), 273, 279, 282, 301–302 Stochastic mathematical programming, 251 Stochastic mixed-integer optimization, 334 Stochastic model, 305 Stochastic nonlinear integer programming, 286 Stochastic optimization, 334 Stochastic parameter, 277–278, 291–292 Stochastic programming (SP), 251, 276–277, 282–283, 304, 333 Strategic corridors, 164–165, 167 Strategic perspectives, 211 Strategic value Aggregate SVA, 215 Strategic value (SVA), 22–23, 153–175, 198, 202, 207–208, 213–216, 218–219, 221–228, 233–237, 245, 309–310, 313–314, 317–318 Strategy design, 5, 10, 17, 23, 47, 99, 245, 289, 310, 313 374 Strategy tables, 313, 317 Strong markets, 199 Subprime mortgage, 33–34, 38, 42, 75, 82 Subsidy, 30, 57, 84 Suburbanization of poverty, Suburbs, 4, 24, 30 Sustainability, 25, 140, 145, 147 Swing weighting, 123 Systems dynamics, 14, 100 Tax delinquencies, 177 Technical analyses, 315 Technical sophistication, 316 Technology acceptance model, 152 Temporal, 44, 78–79, 177 Tenants, 41, 58, 77, 96, 140, 143, 145, 147–148 The Neighborhood Developers (TND), 45–53, 55–59, 61–62, 71–73, 85, 87, 93–94, 163–164, 166, 170–173, 176, 186, 193, 198, 207, 211, 215, 218, 220–221, 228, 313–315, 318; see also Community partner Theory building, 14, 17 Trade-offs, 23, 110, 112, 114, 125, 135–136, 138, 140, 151–152, 158–159, 199, 207, 212, 225, 273, 295, 297, 299, 303, 317 Transition matrix, 185, 188–190, 207 Transition probability, 184–185 Transportation, 14, 61, 156, 158, 165 Troubled Asset Relief Program, 12 Turnover, 38, 117, 140, 145, 148 Twin Cities Community Development Corporation (TCCDC), 45, 50, 53, 67–74, 85, 93, 118, 138–143, 145–146, 152; see also Community partner INDEX UK-style OR, 15 Uncertainty, 3, 14, 21, 23, 43, 100, 176, 214, 245, 248, 251, 260, 273–274, 276–278, 282, 291, 304–305, 310–313, 330–331, 333–334 Unemployment, 7, 75 Upgrading effects, 180 US-style OR, 14–15, 316 Utility Utility function, 111–115, 118, 212, 327 Utility maximization, 297, 309, 311 Utility objective, 280–281 Utilization, 247, 278, 303–304 Vacant Vacancy, 31, 37, 51, 53, 59, 64, 68, 72, 75, 175, 183, 308 Vacant properties, 8, 37, 58, 62, 64, 133–134, 136, 144, 150 Vacant property management, 6, 104, 321 Value-focused thinking (VFT), 16, 21–22, 47, 72, 74, 109, 114–115, 117–118, 123, 126, 138, 143, 151–152, 245, 248, 309, 312–313, 315, 317, 334; see also Soft OR Values; see also Value-focused thinking (VFT) Values hierarchy, 114–115, 117 Values structure, 114, 117, 120–122 Vandalism, 37; see also Blight Weaker markets, 177, 180, 199–200 Wealth accumulation, Willingness to pay, 326 Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science Operations Research and Management Science (ORMS) is a broad, interdisciplinary branch of applied mathematics concerned with improving the quality of decisions and processes and is a major component of the global modern movement towards the use of advanced analytics in industry and scientific research The Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science features a broad collection of books that meet the varied needs of researchers, practitioners, policy makers, and students who use or need to improve their use of analytics Reflecting the wide range of current research within the ORMS 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AGREEMENT Go to www.wiley.com/go/eula to access Wiley’s ebook EULA ... series appears at the end of this volume DECISION SCIENCE FOR HOUSING AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT Localized and Evidence- Based Responses to Distressed Housing and Blighted Communities MICHAEL P JOHNSON,... Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Decision science for housing and community development : localized and evidence- based responses to distressed housing and blighted communities / Michael P... Introduction: Community- Based Organizations, Neighborhood-Level Development, and Decision Modeling 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 Challenges and Opportunities for Housing and Community Development