The demographics of innovation why demographics is a key to the innovation race

CONTENTS Cover Title Page Copyright Acknowledgments About the Author Introduction Part I: Theory and Policy Chapter 1: Global Demographic Trends Factors behind Ultra-Low Fertility Rates World's Population Forecast by Country Religion, Culture, and Fertility Rates Out-of-Wedlock Births Aging Trends Urbanization Chapter 2: Demographics and Innovation Economic Theory of Innovation Types of Innovation: Adaptive Innovation and Frontier Innovation Historical Trends of Innovation Social Changes Driven by Innovation Innovation Capabilities of Different Countries How to Promote Innovation? Other Factors that Can Enhance Innovation Chapter 3: Demographics and the Economy Low Fertility and Old-Age Support Low Fertility and Demographic Dividend/Deficit Can High Fertility Lower the Per Capita Asset Level? Can High Fertility Cause Unemployment? Robots, Unemployment, and Innovation A Little Bit of Economic Science Fiction Impact of Aging on Different Industries Demographics and Inequality Chapter 4: Resource and Environment Natural Resources and Economic Growth Clean Energy World Food Production Will Water Become Scarce? Demographics and the Environment Planning for a Mega City Comprised of 30 Million People Chapter 5: Public Policy Recent Pro-fertility Policies in Developed Countries Reversal of Fertility Policy in Asia Analysis of Pro-fertility Policy Building a Pro-fertility Culture Marriage Ratio and Out-of-Wedlock Births The Future of Pro-fertility Policies Immigration Internal Migration The War for Talent Competition among Countries: Large Countries vs Small Countries A Tale of Ctrip.com: An Analogy between Company Size and Country Size Policy Pitfall of a Large Country Policy Strategies of Small Countries Language Barrier and the English Advantage Trade vs Immigration Brexit and Donald Trump's Presidency Education Reform Part II: The Race of Innovation Chapter 6: Japan The Aging of the Japanese Economy The Lost Decades The Aging of Japanese Firms The Aging of Japanese Society Chapter 7: China Will the Twenty-First Century be the Century of China? Risk of Transiting from Manufacturing to Service Risk of a Widening Income Gap Risk of Political Reform Environmental and Natural Resource Risk The Demographic Advantage of China The Aging of the Chinese Economy The Great Demographic Transition of China Drastic Demographic Change as a Result of the One-Child Policy Gender Imbalance The End of the One-Child Policy Forecasting China's Fertility Rate China to Adopt Pro-fertility Policy Deterioration of Demographics The Impact of Demographic Change on the Chinese Economy and Innovation Policy Suggestions Conclusion Chapter 8: The United States of America A History of Innovation in the United States Does the United States have an Inherent Advantage in Innovation? Is Inequality a Problem? China vs the United States Policy Recommendations Predicting the Effects of Donald Trump's Presidency The Thucydides Trap: A Conflict between China and the United States Chapter 9: Europe The Historical Innovation Champion Is it Too Early to Write Off Germany? Is the United Kingdom Different? Is Russia a Part of Europe? The Prospect of Innovation in Europe Fertility and Aging What is Causing the Difference in Fertility Rates? Immigration But What About the Skill Level of Immigrants? Muslim Immigration Brexit and the Future of the European Union Policy Recommendations Other Developed Countries Conclusion Chapter 10: India History of India Is India's Growth Sustainable? The Scale Advantage India's Infrastructure Problem Export and Balance of Trade Political System Poverty and Inequality Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Natural Resources The Environment Future Economic Outlook Other Developing Countries Conclusion Epilogue: Historical Competition Among Civilizations: An Essay on Transportation Technology, Demographics and the Race of Innovation References Index End User License Agreement List of Tables Table 1.1 Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 2.4 Table 4.1 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 7.1 Table 9.1 Table 9.2 Table 9.3 List of Illustrations Figure I.1 Figure I.2 Figure 1.1 Figure 1.2 Figure 1.3 Figure 1.4 Figure 1.5 Figure 1.6 Figure 1.7 Figure 1.8 Figure 1.9 Figure 1.10 Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 2.4 Figure 2.5 Figure 2.6 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.8 Figure 2.9 Figure 2.10 Figure 2.11 Figure 2.12 Figure 2.13 Figure 2.14 Figure 2.15 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.17 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.2 Figure 3.3 Figure 3.4 Figure 3.5 Figure 3.6 Figure 3.7 Figure 3.8 Figure 3.9 Figure 3.10 Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2 Figure 4.3 Figure 4.4 Figure 4.5 Figure 4.6 Figure 4.7 Figure 4.8(a) Figure 4.8(b) Figure 4.9(a) Figure 4.9(b) Figure 4.10 Figure 4.11 Figure 4.12 Figure 5.1 Figure 5.2 Figure 5.3 Figure 5.4 Figure 5.5 Figure 6.1 Figure 6.2 Figure 6.3 Figure 6.4 Figure 6.5 Figure 6.6 Figure 7.1 Figure 7.2 Figure 7.3 Figure 7.4 Figure 7.5 Figure 7.6 Figure 7.7 Figure 7.8 Figure 7.9 Figure 7.10 Figure 7.11 Figure 7.12 Figure 7.13 Figure 8.1 Figure 8.2 Figure 8.3 Figure 8.4 Figure 8.5 Figure 8.6 Figure 8.7 Figure 8.8 Figure 8.9 Figure 8.10 Figure 9.1 Figure 9.2 Figure 9.3 Figure 9.4 Figure 10.1 Figure 10.2 Figure 10.3 Figure 10.4 Figure 10.5 Figure 10.6 Figure 10.7 Figure 10.8 Figure 10.9 Figure 10.10 Figure 10.11 Figure 10.12 The Demographics of Innovation Why Demographics is a Key to the Innovation Race James Liang aging and China mechanisation and in the USA marriage in China delay in marriage ratio Japan mass production maternity Leave McDonalds measurement of innovation medical equipment manufacturing Mega Cities mental consumption Mercedes Mexico fertility rate Microsoft migration, net, for major countries in 2012 military technology, investment in Ming dynasty minimum wage Mircomax MIT mobile phone market Mongolia air quality Moore, Gordon Mormons: fertility rates Moscow population movie reviewing Mozambique: fertility rate Muslims fertility rates immigrants in Europe Nagoya natural resources and economic growth as share of wealth (1947–2007) NEC Netherlands child support benefits in New York as center of financial innovation financial industry population population density road density Newton, Isaac Niger: fertility rate Nigeria fertility rate population population growth rate Nikon Nintendo Nobel Prize winners age distribution Nokia Norway, child support benefits in nuclear power numerical skills, age and Obama, Barack oil crisis ‘oil dollar’ oil price oil reserve/yearly oil consumption (1980–2014) Ola Olacab old-age dependency ratio Oracle out-of-wedlock birth rate overcentralization overpopulation Oyo Hotel Page, Larry Pakistan: fertility rate Panasonic Paris patent data France, the United Kingdom, USA, and Germany, 1838–1945 number of co-inventors per patent PeopleSoft pensions, public per capita income average total fertility rate, relationship perceptual speed, age and PhDs see doctorates Philippines: fertility rate Philips Academy physical consumption Piketty, Thomas: Capital in the Twenty-First Century PISA test Poland: fertility rate policy strategies of large countries of small countries population density and income per capita level of income population forecast by country in major regions of the world: 1950–2300 population, global current elderly forecasts likely to peak at aroundbillion people limit median age forecast (2010 and 2050) predicted population growth rate 1960–1965 2010–2015 populism Porter, Michel Porter’s four-factor model Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain (PIGS): financial crisis private financial industry private savings procurement costs pro-fertility culture, building pro-fertility policies analysis of in developed countries financial support ‘proletariat’ promotion opportunities for young people public pension system public policy public transportation systems purchasing power parity (PPP) Qianlong, Emperor Qin Shi Huang Qing dynasty real-estate bubble (1991) real-estate industry, aging and religion, culture, and fertility rates population ratio see also Christianity; Muslims religiosity map of the world replacement total fertility rate reproductive technologies required penetration rate research, investment in research and development researchers in (per million people) ‘resource curse’ resource dollar retirement age rewards for innovation roads robotics Roman Empire Romer, Paul Russia fertility rate as part of Europe population (1801-2000) pro-fertility culture pro-fertility policies Samsung San Francisco: population SAP saving rates of selected countries scale advantage scale effect of innovation Scandinavian countries, child support benefits in Schumpeter, Joseph sea navigational technology seawater desalination semiconductors Seoul air quality population service and information industries service jobs shale-gas technology Shanghai as center of innovation fertility level fertility rate housing price population population density Sharp Shenzhen as center of innovation housing price Siemens Silicon Valley housing price transportation network Singapore fertility policy fertility rate as gateway growth rates maternity leave population density Singh, Manmohan Smith, Adam social changes driven by innovation solar power Somalia: fertility rate Song dynasties Sony South Africa: fertility rate South Korea daycare and kindergarten benefits education education style elderly population fertility rate growth rates Nobel Prize winners old-age dependency ratio out of wedlock births per capita calorie intake pro-fertility culture Soviet Union see Russia Spain fertility rate old-age dependency ratio ultra-low fertility rates Spanish–American War speed of innovation Starbucks startup failures Stiglitz, Joseph subprime crisis supply-side economists Sweden child support benefits in fertility rate Taipei, fertility level Taiwan Family Health Committee fertility rates growth rates Tang dynasty Tanzania: fertility rate taxation for age support company technological progress Technological Revolution technology capabilities telecommunication technology Tesla, Nikola Thailand college enrollment rate fertility rate thermal power Thucydides Trap Tokyo agglomeration effect air quality congestion population public transportation subway/railway density ‘too much leisure’ Toshiba tourism industry trade liberalization trade vs immigration transportation costs public systems technology Trump, Donald Turkey: fertility rate Uber Ulaanbaatar, air quality unemployment selected countries (2014) unemployment benefits United Kingdom fertility rate Nobel Prize winners number of patents paid maternity and paternity leave population (1801-2000) United Nations World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision UPS uranium urban congestion urbanization USA advantage in Innovation age structure automobile industry baby boom generation census child support in college graduation rate college students doctorates, foreign-born dollar drug research education system fertility advantage fertility by ethnic group fertility rate fertility trend formal education Gini index high-tech companies and founders higher education highly skilled immigration history of Innovation in housing human resources immigrants immigration immigration advantage income inequality income per capita inequality problem inflation (1960 to 2010) international students Internet manufacturing in manufacturing product marriage ratio in net migration ‘No Child Left Behind’ initiative Nobel Laureates patents per capita GDP policy recommendations population (1801-2000) population growth (1865 to 1925) population size advantage population structure (2040) pro-fertility financial support railroads scientific research service and information technology industries skills universities unskilled immigrants ‘VIE’ structure venture capitalists verbal skills, age and video game console Vietnam fertility rate two-child only policy voter turnout ratio of people Walkman War for Talent warfare water welfare benefits for the elderly, reducing Wenzheng Huang wind power women college education education Islamic labor force participation rate ‘leftover’ in workforce World Bank World Trade Organization (WTO) Xerox Xiaomi Yahoo Japan Yokohoma as satellite city Zambia: fertility rates Zheng He Zuckerberg, Mark WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT Go to www.wiley.com/go/eula to access Wiley's ebook EULA ... professional should be sought Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Liang, James Jianzhang, author Title: The demographics of innovation : why demographics is a key to the innovation. .. fundamental and irreparable problem of aging is the weakening of entrepreneurship and innovation, and a sort of degradation in the vitality of the human population taken as a whole A 50-year-old... innovation are analyzed in this chapter In addition to aging, the size of the population and the geographical concentration of the population also have a fundamental impact on innovation Large countries