National Climate Assessment Regional Technical Input Report Series Climate of the Southeast United States VARIABILITY, CHANGE, IMPACTS, AND VULNERABILITY Edited by: Keith T Ingram Kirstin Dow Lynne Carter Julie Anderson Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability © 2013 Southeast Climate Consortium All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Printed on recycled, acid-free paper ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Citation: ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱDZȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǯȱȱDZȱ ȱǯ Keywords:ȱȬĴȬȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ climate impacts, climate modeling, climate variability, coastal, drought, education, electric ȱǰȱ¡ȱ ǰȱĚǰȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȬȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȬ ȱ intrusion, sea level rise, silviculture, social vulnerability, Southeast, storm surge, tropical ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǰȱȬȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱ ę ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ Tribal Government or Non-governmental entity Front Cover Images: ȱǰȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȂȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱDzȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǯȱDzȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱDzȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱDzȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱĴǯ About This Series This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the Third National ȱȱǻǼȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and Congress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts The NCA informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future The NCA report process integrates ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǯ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱ£ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ input reports highlighting past climate trends, projected climate change, and impacts ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱing this technical input The lead authors for related chapters in the Third NCA report, ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱDZ ȱȱȱęȱ DZȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱȱ ǯ¡ǯȦ Printed copies are availȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯǯȦǯȱ Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability EDITORS Keith T Ingram (University of Florida) Kirstin Dow (University of South Carolina) Lynne Carter (Louisiana State University) Julie Anderson (Louisiana State University) EDITORIAL ASSISTANCE Eleanor K Sommer (Gainesville, Florida) ȱȩȱȱȩȱ ǯ ǯȱ ĜǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ŗřśȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŞŗȬŘşŘǯ ȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ £ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦŘǯǯǯǯȦȦƖŘŖȬƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖ Report%202010%20-%20CRC%20Science%20Panel.pdf Ȃǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¡ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱśŗȱǻŗǼDZȱŗřȬŘś ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ěȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱŚŚȱǻŗŚǼDZȱŚŗŞŜȬŚŗşŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱŗŖŜȱǻŗŞǼDZȱŝřŘŚȬŝřŘşǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ£¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȬĴǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŗŖDZȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŗşȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗŚŗśȬŗŚŘŖǯ £ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ãǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚŘȱǻŞǼDZȱŞśŝȬŞşŖǯ ĵǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŗşȱǻśǼDZȱŚŝŘȬŚŝŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ river.ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱşŞȱǻśǼDZȱŗŗŘŝȬŗŗřŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ... Map of the states in the Southeast region for the US National Climate Assessment Note that the region and report also covers Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands Climate Change in the Southeast. .. VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Status and Outlook for Energy Production and Use in the Southeast Impact of Climate Change on Energy Supply and Demand in the Southeast. . .Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability © 2013 Southeast Climate Consortium All rights reserved under International and Pan-American