Đang tải... (xem toàn văn)
Chapter 16 - Global industry profiles. This chapter examines some major sectoral trends and prospects for three global industries: the grain industry, the automotive industry, and; the telecommunications industry.
Chapter 16 Global industry profiles Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–1 Lecture plan Sectoral trends and prospects for three global industries: • grain • automotive • telecommunications Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–2 Grain industry • Historical overview • Production and consumption • Industry structure • Grain traders • Government role • Grain trade and investment • Prospects for the grain market Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–3 The world grain production • Wheat & feed grain production dominated by about major suppliers, mostly developed countries (around 75% of world’s grain production) • Rice production is dominated by Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Bangladesh) • Long periods of oversupply interrupted by brief periods of shortage • Accumulation of stocks by protectionist policies (e.g EU, US) Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–4 World grain consumption • Strong population growth (+2 m over 1971–97) • Changing diets in developing countries favour grain-intensive foods • Income growth (income elasticities in low-income countries tend to be > than in highincome countries) • Overall, world demand for grain has slowed down over last decades, mainly due to slow down in population Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–5 Grain importers • Chronically food deficient countries: Singapore, Japan, Middle East • Import requirements reasonably stable and predictable • Countries whose import requirements are small and confined to specialist needs (UK) • Countries relying on imports to close gap between production and consumption (China, ex-USSR, Saudi Arabia) Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–6 World grain exports* in 2003 by main grains (%) Total value: US$37.2b * SITC 041–045 Source: ITC UNCTAD/WTO Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–7 Grain prices • Prices are volatile; reasons: – weather – oil prices (influencing costs for farmers) – value of US dollar – government policies (EU, US) – political events (wars, nuclear accidents) • Not necessarily volatile incomes for farmers, or large price fluctuations for consumers • Long-term decline in real grain prices (Engel’s law) Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–8 Trade policies • Trade dominated by private firms, but governments have major role • Protectionist policies in exporting and importing countries • Uruguay Round committed major exporting countries to liberalisation Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–9 Major grain trade players • Private traders – Cargill (Tradax), (Continental), Louis Dreyfus, Andre (Garnac in US), Bunge & Born • State/farmers trading organisations – Canadian Wheat Board, Australian Wheat Board (privatised), Middle East Trade Boards • State importing organisations – Iran, Egypt, Iraq Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–10 Protection in the car sector • Generally, protection is higher in NICs (e.g Thailand) – import duties (42–68.5% for CBU cars and 20% on CKD) – 7% VAT; excise tax (27–45%) – municipality tax (3.25–4.5%) – local content requirements for cars are 54% – ban on imports of buses with 30 seats and over – import ban on used motor vehicles Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–24 Protection in the car sector cont • In developed countries tariff protection generally replaced by non-tariff barriers (e.g VER) • Very sensitive sector; powerful lobby groups and unions • Australia: decision to freeze tariffs at 15% for years after 2000 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–25 90 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Market share (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Locally produced Imports PMV tariff 19 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2099 2000 01 PMV tariff (%) Australian PMVs market (% share of locally produced vs imports) and tariffs, 1988 to 2001 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–26 Australian automotive exports by destination, %, 1996, 2001 1996 Rest of the world, 14% UK, 3% 2001 New Zealand, 25% Germany, 4% Indonesia, 3% Japan, 3% UK, 2% Rest of the world, 8% Middle East, 37% South Korea, 8% Middle East, 6% NAFTA/US, 18% Japan, 9% ASEAN, 10% South Korea, 11% New Zealand, 15% NAFTA, 23% Source: Compiled from Industry Commission Inquiry Report, The Automotive Industry, 1997 and Commonwealth Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Key Automotive Statistics 2002, 2003, viewed 15 May 2004, Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–27 Australia’s automotive trade with regional groups, A$m, %, 2003 Regional group Exports A$ million NAFTA European Union (15) ASEAN (10) Imports A$ million Balance of trade A$ million Exports as % of imports 565 1120 –555 50.4% 98 4085 –3987 2.4% 123 916 –793 13.4% Source: adapted from DFAT, Composition of Trade Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–28 Future MNEs’ business strategies • Manufacturing flexibility • Being profitable at lower volumes • More production alliances and joint ventures • Rationalisation of components supplies • Emphasis on design and marketing Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–29 Future of independent automotive suppliers • More opportunities in supply of parts • Rationalisation and specialisation • Subcontracting to big companies • Direct investment in areas of growth (East Asia and Latin America) • Impact of new technologies: the electric car; the hydrogen-fuelled car Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–30 Telecommunications industry Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–31 Composition of global telecom trade (total 1996: US$115b) Other 13% Net Settlement payments 26% Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea Equipment 61% 16–32 Telecom privatisations,1984–1996 % share by region Total value: US$158.5b E.Europe 2% Other 1% Latin America 12% West Europe 31% Asia-Pacific 54% Source: based on ITU Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–33 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 No of lines (Millions) US$ Billion Global telecom market revenue (US$ billion), number of main telephone lines vs mobile cellular subscribers (millions),1991–2002 Telecom market Main lines Mobile lines Source: adapted from ITU Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–34 Traditional mode of operation of telecom monopolies • Accounting rate = the price agreed upon by two national carriers • Settlement rate (1/2 the accounting rate) • Collection rate = what the national carrier charges customers) • System expected to break down with deregulation Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–35 Comparative performance of the top 22 telecom and 25 automotive firms (1999) Indicators (1999) Revenues (US$m) Profits (US$m) Return on revenues % Return on assets % Revenue per employee (US$) Median for Median for top 25 top 21 telecom vehicles & parts firms firms 25,224 2629 10.2 5.4 233,107 48,669 1045 2.2 2.2 319,228 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–36 Comparative performance of the Fortune top global telecom and automotive firms (2003) 48,669 Indicators (1999) Revenues (US$b) Profits (US$m) Return on revenues % Return on assets % Revenue per employee (US$) Median for Median for top 32 top 24 vehicles & parts Telecom firms firms 25.7 1.9 7.7 22.7 0.5 2.6 3.6 2.6 326,137 307,059 Source: adapted from Fortune, July 26, 2004 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–37 TELSTRA’s ranking in 2003 • 23th largest telecom company in the world with revenues of US$2.6b • Profits: US$2.0b (rank 120/500) • Profits as % of revenue: 16% (rank 6/24) • Profits as % of assets: (rank 5/24) Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16–38 ... McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16 9 Major grain trade players • Private traders... McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16 10 Futures contracts • Standard quantity and. .. (China, ex-USSR, Saudi Arabia) Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 16 6