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Chapter 2 - International trade in goods and services. The main goals of this chapter are to: Examine the main patterns of trade to indicate which categories of products have been most important over the recent decades; outline recent changes in intra-industry trade and processing trade; explain why these patterns exist, based on various related developments in the world economy.
Chapter International trade in goods and services Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–1 Lecture plan • Changes in merchandise trade patterns – – – – – changes in value, volume reasons for changes in trade composition processing trade intra-industry trade prices trends • Services trade patterns – – changes in product composition leading players Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–2 World exports growth, by value (merchandise and services) Value (US$b.) 2004 Annual change (% p.a.) 1990– 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ’04 Merchandise 8880 6.0 –4 17 21 Services 2100 6.0 13 16 Source: PRESS/401,14 April 2005 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–3 Annual real growth rates of world merchandise exports and production, % % p.a -2 1991-00 2001 2002 2003 Exports 7.4 -0.5 3.5 Production 2.9 -0.7 0.8 2.8 Source:adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2004 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–4 International merchandise trade value vs volume (Table 2.1) • Value growth factors – – – – – physical demand variations in international prices product mix and product quality exchange rates (‘the valuation effect’) capital flows and trade policy • Volume growth – e.g measured at constant prices and exchange rates – more realistic expression of trade growth Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–5 Product composition of world merchandise exports, (% by product group) 80 % of world exports 70 60 50 Agricultural products 40 Mining products 30 Manufactures 20 10 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2003 Source: adapted from GATT Annual Reports 1987–88, WTO International Trade Statistics 2004 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–6 World manufactured exports as % of world merchandise exports, 1990, 2003 2003 1990 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 % Source: adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2001 and 2004 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–7 Recent trend: ‘processing trade’ • Preferential tariff duty-free access to those imports bound for processing and assembling of goods destined for exports • About 850 ‘export processing zones’ • Mixed success in expanding trade and employment • Value varies from US$0.7 billion in Bangladesh to US$104.6 billion in China • On the way down in NAFTA Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–8 Recent trend: ‘intra-industry trade” • Exchange of the same category of products • T = - I X - M I / (X + M) • Reasons – trade takes place in differentiated products – economies of scale (which require a limited range specialisation) Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–9 Leading global exporters of services, 2003 (Fig 2.4) US 16% UK 7% Other 43% Germany 6% France 6% Hong Kong 3% Netherlands 4% China 3% Italy 4% Spain 4% Source: adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2004 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–10 Leading services traders Eight of the top 10 exporters of services are also among the world’s top 10 exporters of goods (only Spain and Hong Kong are not) EU (15): about 40% of world trade in services US is largest individual exporter(16 %) and importer (12.5%) Share of developing Asian countries in world’s services exports up from 100 favourable - TTI < 100 unfavourable - TTI = 100 unchanged Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–14 Terms of trade index, 2001 (1995 = 100) Economy Terms of Trade 1990 Movement 1995–2001 2001 USA 98 99 unfavourable Japan 91 88 unfavourable Australia 117 105 favourable New Zealand 103 106 favourable Hong Kong 101 102 favourable Thailand 102 78 unfavourable Singapore 111 92 unfavourable Source: adapted from World Bank Development Indicators 2004, Table 4.4 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–15 % of world exports Share of world merchandise exports, by region, 1983, 2003 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 1983 2003 Source: adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2004 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–16 Merchandise trade recovery in Asia (5)*, 1997–2000 Year Exports (% p.a.) Imports (% p.a.) 1997 5.1 -3.1 1998 -3.5 -30.9 1999 10.2 15.1 2000 18.5 27.9 * Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, Philippines Thailand Source: adapted from WTO data Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–17 % Share of main regions in world merchandise imports, 1983, 2003 Economy % share % share 1983 2003 North America 17.8 20.5 Latin America 4.5 4.8 Western Europe 40.1 42.0 Eastern Europe 8.4 5.0 Africa 4.6 2.2 Middle East 6.2 2.5 Asia 4.5 18.5 Source: adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2004 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–18 Reasons for changes in trade patterns • • • • • Engel’s law Price trends Technological developments Multinational enterprises Regional trading blocks Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–19 Merchandise and services as a percentage of world exports 1970 1980 2000 2004 Merchandise 81 83 81 81 Services 19 17 19 19 Source: adapted from WTO data Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–20 Exports of commercial services by category, %, 1990, 2003 50 40 30 % of total services 20 10 Transportation Travel Other Services 1990 28.5 33.9 37.6 2003 22.6 29.4 48 Source: adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 2004 Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–21 Services trade in developing countries • Services—a protected sector – balance of payments considerations – support for indigenous providers of services • Arguments pro protection – indigenous firms are too weak – abrupt liberalisation would eliminate domestic firms • Arguments against protection – transfer of skills – more competition, better quality of service Copyright 2006 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2 2–22 ... merchandise exports and production, % % p.a -2 199 1-0 0 20 01 20 02 2003 Exports 7.4 -0 .5 3.5 Production 2. 9 -0 .7 0.8 2. 8 Source:adapted from WTO International Trade Statistics 20 04 Copyright 20 06... 20 06 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2< #> 2 4 International merchandise trade value... Copyright 20 06 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a International Trade and Investment: An Asia-Pacific Perspective 2e by Gionea Slides prepared by John Gionea 2< #> 2 19 Merchandise and services