Analyze real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000-2017. On that basis, assess the achievement, limit and define essential reasons of limitations during the process of shifting the structure of economics in the zone for this stage.
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS IN HO CHI MINH CITY NGUYEN VAN TRON THE SHIFT OF STRUCTURE OF ECONOMICS DURING THE PROCESS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION, MODERNIZATION IN MEKONG DELTA UNTIL 2025 THE SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PHD THESIS Ho Chi Minh City, 2019 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS IN HO CHI MINH CITY NGUYEN VAN TRON THE SHIFT OF STRUCTURE OF ECONOMICS DURING THE PROCESS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION, MODERNIZATION IN MEKONG DELTA UNTIL 2025 Department: Political Economy Department code: 9310102 THE SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PHD THESIS Ho Chi Minh City, 2019 The work is completed in: University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City Scientific advisors: Major advisor: PhD Hoang AnQuoc Secondary advisor: PhD LuuThi Kim Hoa Reviewer 1: Reviewer 2: Reviewer 3: The thesis will be protected before Council of thesis at the room … University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City at … hour… month… date… year 2019 Can find out the thesis in the library: - General Scientific Library in HCMC - Library in University of Economics in HCMC THE INTRODUCTION The topic’s necessity The shift of structure of economics is one of basic contents for the process of industrialization, modernization About reasoning aspect, there were many researching works about the shift of structure of economics These researching works refered to the contents of concept of shifting the structure of economics, showed some norms of assessing the shift of structure of economics, approaching the factors which influence to forming and shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization under many different corners However, some norms assess the shift of structure of economics commonly, not specifically, suitably with practical situation about the shift of structure of economics in the scale of whole country in common and Mekong Delta in particular Mekong Delta is a wide land zone where appropriates 12,3% area and 18,9% population in whole country; dense network of rivers, canals; there are many potentials and advantages about developing, manufacturing the group of food trees, vegetables and fruit trees in the industries of planting, seafood, food and baverage processing industry.The industries which have a high content of labourers, regenerative energy and gas - electricity - protein, tourism, have an advantageous position in the transaction with ASEAN countries and small zone in Mekong Delta Mekong Delta has an important role with the economy in whole country, is the place where contributes on 17,3% GDP, 55,3% quantity of paddy, 70% quantity of fruits and 56% quantity of seafood of whole country The structure of economics in Mekong Delta during last period shifted according to the direction of industrialization, modernization, promoted the zone’s potentials and advantages However, this process takes place very slow; the group of agriculture - forestry - seafood also appropriated a high proportion in GRDP, in total social labourers and total exporting turnover in the zone; in contrast, the group of industry - construction also appropriated the lowest turnover in GRDP and total social labourers; the structure of economics in the zone doesn’t still promote the zone’s maximum potentials and advantages yet … This causes not only the waste largely in using the sources of economics, but also prevents very many with the advance and social equality in the zone The context of industrial revolution on the fourth time takes place on extremely rapid; international integration is wider and wider, the relationship of foreign affair economics develops rapidly; double effect from changing the climate, rising sea water and exploiting water resource in the upstream of Mekong Delta just opened new opportunities, but also proposed big challenges with the shift of structure of economics in the zone in coming time From the above mentioned reasons, PhD student chose the problem “The shift of structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta until 2025” as researching topic of PhD thesis in Political Economics department Researching this topic really brings the necessity, has a essential meaning about reasoning and practical aspects with the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta Researching target - Common target is the shift of structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta until 2025 - Specific target: + Build scientific basis about the structure of economics and shift the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization Whereas, the focus is to analyze, make clear the concept about shifting the structure of economics, the norms of assessing the shift of structure of economics, influencing factors to forming and shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization + Analyze, assess real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 and find out essential reasons of limitations during the process of shifting + Build the orientation of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 suitably with historic - specific conditions in the zone + Propose some essential solutions to promote the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 according to chosen orientation Researching object and scale - This topic’s researching object is the shift of structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization - Researching scale: + Space scale: the thesis focuses on researching in the area of Mekong Delta as a unity, including 13 provinces, cities directly under Central city as Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Vinh Long, Dong Thap, An Giang, Kien Giang, Can Tho City, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu and Ca Mau + Time scale: the part of analyzing, assessing real situation and finding out essential reasons of limitations during the process of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017; the part of building the orientation and proposing some essential solutions to promote the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 + Scientific scale: the thesis will go deeply on analyzing the shift of structure of economics in the change about the proportion between economics in total The thesis’s contributions - The contribution about reasoning aspect: perfect (inherit and develop) the norms of assessing the shift of structure of economics suitably with practical situation about the shift of structure of economics in the scale of whole country in common and Mekong Delta in particular - The contribution about practical aspect: + Analyze real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 On that basis, assess the achievement, limit and define essential reasons of limitations during the process of shifting the structure of economics in the zone for this stage + Build the orientation of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 suitably with the zone’s new context + Propose some essential solutions to promote the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 according to chosen orientation The thesis’s structure Besides the introduction, conclusion, list of referential documents and appendixes, the thesis’ contents include chapters: Chapter 1: The overview of researching situation Chapter 2: Scientific basis of structure of economics and the shift of structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization Chapter 3: The method of researching the topic Chapter 4: Real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta during last period Chapter 5: The orientation and essential solutions to promote the shift of structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta until 2025 CHAPTER 1: THE OVERVIEW OF RESEARCHING SITUATION 1.1 Researching works relate to the thesis about reasoning aspect The reasoning about the structure of economics and the shift of structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization have very many problems However, this item only summarizes typical researching works about some basic, essential, and specific problems as follows: 1.1.1 Researching works about internal function of concept of shifting the structure of economics include: The work “The shift of structure of economics in the conditions of integration with the area and world” of author Le Du Phong and partner (1999); the work “The problem of shifting the structure of economics in Ho Chi Minh City during the process of industrialization, modernization” of author Truong Thi Minh Sam and partner (2000); the work “The shift of structure of Vietnam economics in the years at the beginning of XXI century” of author Nguyen Tran Que and partner (2004); the work “The shift of structure of economics in Vietnam in the process of international economic integration” of author Nguyen Thi Bich Huong (2005); the work “The restructure of Vietnam economics from the industry’s structure and the structure of economic component” of author Nguyen Ngoc Toan and partner (2013) 1.1.2 Researching works about the norms of assessing the shift of structure of economics include: Scientific newspaper “The structure of economics and the shift of structure of economics in scientific - technological revolution and world economic global trend” of author Tran Van Nhung (2001); The work “The shift of structure of economics in Vietnam” of author Bui Tat Thang and partner (2006); PhD thesis “Scientific agency and essential solutions to promote the shift of structure of agricultural economy in Mekong Delta” of author Nguyen Trong Uyen (2007); the textbook “Developing economy: Theory and Reality” of author Dinh Phi Ho and partner (2011); the textbook “The application of some theories in economic research” of author Tran Tho Dat and Ngo Quang Canh (2015) 1.1.3 Researching works about influencing factors to forming and shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization include: The author “The factors influence to the shift of structure of economics in the period of industrialization in Vietnam” of author Bui Tat Thang and partner (1997); the work “The State’s effect to shift the structure of economics according to the direction of industrialization, modernization in our country currently” of author Nguyen Cuc and partner (1997); the work “The shift of structure of economics in the conditions of integration with the area and world” of author Le Du Phong and partner (1999); the work “The problem of shifting the structure of economics in Ho Chi Minh City during the process of industrialization, modernization” of author Truong Thi Minh Sam and partner (2000); the work “The direction of shifting the structure of economics in Ho Chi Minh City” of author Tran Du Lich and partner (2001); the work “The shift of structure of economics in Vietnam” of author Bui Tat Thang and partner (2006); PhD thesis “Scientific basis and essential solutions to promote the shift of structure of agricultural economy in Mekong Delta” of author Nguyen Trong Uyen (2007); the work “The shift of structure according to the direction of solid development in Vietnam” of author Pham Thi Khanh and partner (2010); the work “The theory of new structure economy: The basis to recondier the development” of author Justin Yifu Lin and partner (2013) 1.2 Researching works relate to the thesis about practical aspect including: The work “The development of capitalism in Russia” of V.I Lenin (1899); the work “Economics of rapid growth: “Japan and Korea’s experience” of Dirk Pilat (1994); The topic KX03.19 “Economic methods, essential organization to promote the shift of structure and develop major focused department” of author Do Hoai Nam and partner (1995); the work “The problem of shifting the structure of economics in Ho Chi Minh City during the process of industrialization, modernization” of author Truong Thi Minh Sam and partner (2000); the work “The shift of structure of economics in Vietnam for the process of international economic integration” of author Nguyen Thi Bich Huong (2005); the topic in the level of Ministry “The shift of structure of economics in the area of HCMC in the context where Vietnam integrates the area and world - The direction and basic solutions” of author Hoang An Quoc (2007); PhD thesis “The direction of shifting the structure of economics in Tra Vinh province until 2015” of author Tran Tuan Anh (2007); the work “Mysterious development in Korea: Developing economy and capitalism” of author Young Iob-Chung and partner (2007); scientific newspaper “The shift of structure of economics meet Vietnam’s request of international economic integration” of author Mai Lan Huong (2009); the work “The change of structure in world economy: Characteristic and major trend” of author Olga Memedovic and partner (2010); Scientific newspaper “The solution of promoting the shift of structure of economics and investment in Mekong Delta in the stage of 2010 - 2020” of author Hoang Ngoc Phong (2010); scientific newspaper “Industrialization is a motivation of growth for developing countries, 1950 - 2005” of author Adam Szirmai (2012); the work “The restructure of Vietnamese economy from the structure of industry and the structure of economic components” of author Nguyen Ngoc Toan and partner (2013); The work “The change of structure, basic principle and growth: Analyzing frame and researching cases” of author Margaret McMillan and partner (2016) 1.3 Common assessment about topic researching situation 1.3.1 The contribution about reasoning aspect Researching works refered to the contents of shifting concept of structure of economics, showed some norms of assessing the shift of structure of economics, approached influencing factors to forming and shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization under many different corners 1.3.2 The contribution about practical aspect Researching works analyzed, assessed real situation of shifting the structure of economics of world economy, developing countries, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, HCMC and Tra Vinh province for different stages On that basis, define the direction and propose some essential solutions to promote the shift of structure of economics in Vietnam, HCMC and Tra Vinh province … according to chosen direction 1.3.3 Define researching space Some norms of assessing the shift of structure of economics in previous common researching works aren’t specific, suitable with practical situation about the shift of structure of economics in the scale of whole country in common and Mekong Delta in particular Previous researching works aren’t analyzed, assessed real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialsim, modernization in Mekong Delta for the stages of 2000 - 2017 and found out essential reasons of limitations during the process of shifting yet Previous researching works don’t also propose the orientation of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 suitably with the zone’s new context yet and propose some essential solutions to promote the shift of structure of economics in the zone according to chosen orientation CHAPTER 2: SCIENTIFIC BASIS ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF ECONOMICS AND THE SHIFT OF STRUCTURE OF ECONOMICS DURING THE PROCESS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION, MODERNIZATION 2.1 The concept about economic structure and the kinds of economic structure National economics is a complext system which has many parts and between these parts, there is a relationship “The structure of national economics is total relationship about the quantity and quality between those composed parts for a period and fixed economic - social conditions” (Vu Tuan Anh, 1982, page 18) According to approaching corner, when researching national economy, we have many kinds of equivalent economic structures such as the structure of economics, structure according to the zone - territory and structure of economic component Whereas, the structure of economics is important most 2.2 The concept about the shift of structure of economics and norms of assessing the shift of structure of economics 2.2.1 The concept about the shift of structure of economics The shift of structure of economics is the process of changing the quantity of industry, proportion and interactive relationship between industries or subdivisions in a department according to a fixed trend to achieve an effectively reasonable new structure If considering for a specific period, this change is expressed in the following points: First, the change of quantity and the kind of industry in the economy appear more new industries or lose some available industries Second, the change about the proportion between the industries due to unequal speed of growth between the industries Third, the change in the relationship effects each other between industries, expresses in this industry’s output as the input of other industries and in contrast The shift of structure of economics is to achieve a more reasonable and effective new structure 2.2.2 The norms of assessing the shift of structure of economics - GDP structure, the structure of manufacturing value include: + GDP structure is divided according to the group of economics + The kinds of structure of manufacturing value in the group of agriculture - forestry - seafood + In the group of industry - construction, there are the following norms: the proportion of industries and construction in GDP; the structure of industrial manufacturing value is divided according to the industry; the structure of industrial manufacturing value is divided according to the group of lowtechnology industry, medium-technology industry and high-technology industry + In the group of service industry, there is the norm of proportion of service industry in GDP The speed of shifting the structure of economics is measured by cosφ coefficient - The structure of working labourers in the economy includes: the structure of total social labourers is divided according to the group of economics, the structure of total social labourers is divided according to technical specialized qualification - The structure of exporting goods and some essential exporting items 2.3 The factors influence to forming and shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization 2.3.1 The State’s effect through the tools such as strategy, planning, economic - social developing plan, legal system and policies 2.3.2 The sources of economy - Natural conditions such as geographic position, climate, land resource, terrain, water, forest, sea, mineral resource - Human resource includes the aspects of quantity and quality - Investing capital includes the structure of investing capital divided according to the source of capital, the structure of investment and the effectiveness of using investing capital - Scientific - technological advance is expressed in the norm of labour productivity 2.3.3 Market factor includes domestic and foreign market 2.4 Some basic reasonings about the industrialization, modernization 2.4.1 The concept about the industrialization, modernization According to the conference of the central executive committee of Vietnamese communist party on the 7th time course VII (1994), “The industrialization, modernization is the process of conversion basically,completely the activities of production, business, service and economic, social management from using manual labour into using popularly the labour with the technology, means and advanced, modern methods based on the industry’s development and scientific - technological advance to create high-social labour productivity” 2.4.2 The effects of the industrialization, modernization 13 4.2 Real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 4.2.1 GRDP structure, the structure of manufacturing value 4.2.1.1 GRDP structure is divided according to the group of economics GRDP structure is divided according to the group of economics in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 shifted according to the following trend: Table 4.3: GRDP structure is divided according to the group of economics in Mekong Delta Unit 2000 2005 2010 2017 GRDP % 100 100 100 100 The group of agriculture - forestry % 52,9 47,2 39,6 31,6 seafood The group of industry - construction % 18,0 22,2 24,0 26,8 The group of service % 29,1 30,6 36,4 41,6 Source: PhD student summarizes from statistic yearbook for 13 provincies, cities belonging to Mekong Delta Table 4.3 shows: the proportion of agriculture - forestry - seafood in GRDP has the trend of decreasing In contrast, the proportion of group of industry construction and service in GRDP has the trend of increasing The speed of shifting the structure of GRDP was divided according to the group of economics in Mekong Delta in the period of 2000 - 2017, measured by cosφ coefficient cosφcoefficient = 0,90957, so φ = 24,5 , that is this process takes place slowly 4.2.1.2 The kinds of manufacturing value structure in the group of agriculture - forestry - seafood First, manufacturing value structure of agriculture - forestry - seafood was divided according to the economics in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017,shifted according to the following trend: Table 4.4: Manufacturing value structure of agriculture - forestry - seafood was divided according to the economics in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 Unit 2000 2005 2010 2017 Agriculture - forestry % 100 100 100 100 seafood industries Agriculture industry % 72,4 65,3 66 62,5 Forestry industry % 2,2 1,6 1,0 1,0 Seafood industry % 25,5 33,1 33,1 36,5 Source : PhD student summarizes from statistic yearbook in 13 provinces, cities belonging to Mekong Delta 14 Table 4.4 shows that the proportion of industry and forestry in manufacturing value of agriculture - forestry - seafood has the trend of increasing rapidly In contrast, the proportion of seafood industry has the trend of increasing rapidly The structure of manufacturing value of agriculture - forestry - seafood according to shifting economics according to the above mentioned trend due to manufacturing factors such as land, labour and the capital moves from the agriculture - forestry to seafood industry to achieve a higher economic effectiveness Second, the structure of agricultural manufacturing value was divided according to the economy in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 shifted according to the trend: theproportion of planting industry in agricultural manufacturing value had the trend of decreasing, from 78,3% in 2000 down 77,8% in 2010 and 74,7% in 2017 In contrast, the proportion of breeding industry had the trend of increasing, from 13,8% in 2000 to 14,6% in 2010 and achieved 15,9% in 2017 This shift made average manufacturing value on of agricultural manufacturing land have the trend of increasing, from 17,2 million dongs/ha in 2000 to 137 million dongs/ha in 2017 The speed of shifting agricultural manufacturing structure was divided according to the economics in Mekong Delta for the period of 2000 - 2017, measured by cosφcoefficient cosφcoefficent = 0,99912, so φ = 2,4 , that is this process takes place slowly Besides, there are many limitations in small plant seed which the farmer uses to manufacture, manufacturing technique is still low; small retailing manufacturing scale is major; associating according to value chain in agricultural production is still narrow, isn’t popular yet The structure of manufacturing value of planting industry was divided according to the group of plants in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017, shifted according to the following trend: the proportion of group of food trees in manufacturing value of planting industry had the trend of decreasing, from 69,4% in 2000 down 67,6% in 2010 and 60,6% in 2017 The proportion of group of industrial trees had also the trend of decreasing, from 6,4% in 2000 down 5,6% in 2010 and 4,8% in 2017 In contrast, the proportion of group of vegetables had the trend of increasing, from 6,6% in 2000 to 13,1% in 2010 and achieved 14,5% in 2017 The proportion of group of fruit trees had also the trend of increasing, from 15,2% in 2000 to 19,5% in 2017 This shift contributed on making average manufacturing value on of planting land to have the trend of increasing, from 13,5 million dongs/ha in 2000 to 102,3 million dongs/ha in 2017 The speed of shifting the structure of manufacturing value of planting industry was divided according to the group of planting trees in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017, measured by cosφ coefficient cosφ coefficent = 0,98646, so φ = 9,4 , that is this process take place slowly 15 The structure of manufacturing value of breeding industry was divided according to the group of domestic animal in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 shifted according to the following trend: the proportion of group of domestic animals in manufacturing value of breeding industry had the trend of increasing, from 62% in 2000 to 65,2% in 2017 The proportion of group of domestic animals had also the trend of increasing, from 22,6% in 2000 to 23,1% in 2010 and achieved 30,9% in 2017 This shift is suitable with breeding conditions in the zone, suitable with market need The speed of shifting the structure of manufacturing value of breeding industry was divided according to the group of domestic animals in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017, was measured by cosφ coefficient cosφ coefficient = 0,98033, so φ = 11,4 , that is this process takes place slowly Third, the structure of forestry manufacturing value was divided according to operating industry in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017: About forest area in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017, therewere the trend of decreasing, from 337.664 in 2000 down 253.530 in 2017 Whereas, the area of manufacturing forest land had the trend of decreasing strongly, from 218.632 down 99.257 ha; in contrast, the area of protective forest land had the trend of increasing, from 76.592 to 81.778 ha; the area of forest land for special use had also the trend of increasing, from 42.440 to 72.495 in this stage About the structure of forestry manufacturing value divided according to operating industry in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017,the proportion of planting industry and forest care in forestry manufacturing value was rather small, had the trend of decreasing from 7,3% in 2000 down 5,5% in 2010 and there was only 3,6% in 2017 In contrast, the proportion of wood exploiting industry and other forestry was always biggest, had the trend of increasing from 87,2% in 2000 to 87,7% in 2010 and 92,8% in 2017 Fourth, the structure of seafood manufacturing value was divided according to operating industry in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017, shifted according to the following trend: the proportion in aquaculture in seafood manufacturing value had the trend of increasing rapidly, from 48,1% in 2000 to 69% in 2017 In contrast, the proportion of seafood exploiting industry had the trend of decreasing rapidly, from 49,2% in 2000 down 27,4% in 2017 4.2.1.3 The proportion of industries and construction industries in GRDP, the structure of industrial manufacturing value First, about the proportion of industries and construction industry in GRDP in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 shifted according to the following trend: 16 Table 4.13: The proportion of industries and construction industry in GRDP in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 Unit: % 2000 2005 2010 2017 GRDP 100 100 100 100 The group of industry - construction 18,0 22,2 24,0 26,8 industry: + Exploitation 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,1 + Processing industry 13,7 17,2 16,6 18,8 + Manufacturing and distributing the 0,8 0,7 2,6 3,2 electricity, burning gas, water + Construction 3,2 4,1 4,6 4,7 Source: PhD student summarizes statistic yearbook in 13 provinces, city belonging to Mekong Delta Table 4.13 shows in the group of industry - construction industries, the proportion of exploiting industry in GRDP had the trend of decreasing In contrast, the proportion of industries, construction in GRDP had the trend of increasing This shift is suitable with typical characteristic of Mekong Delta as the zone with mineral resource very limited, suitably with the trend of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization The speed of shifting the proportion of industries and construction in GRDP in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 was measured by cosφ coefficient cosφ coefficient = 0,99414, so φ = 6,2 , that is this process takes place slowly Second, the structure of industrial manufacturing value: The structure of industrial manufacturing value was divided according to the industry in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017,the industries exploited the source of agricultural and seafood materials, exploit human resource abundantly, have the market of domestic and foreign consumption advantageously Strong growth made the proportion of these industries in industrial manufacturing value, had the trend of increasing, such as manufacturing industry, food and beverage processing, sewing, leather shoes In contrast, the industries met many difficulties about the source of materials and product consuming ability in the market develop slower, made the proportion of these industries in industrial manufacturing value have the trend of decreasing, such as weaving, wood processing industries However, this process takes place slowly In the structure of industrial manufacturing value divided according to technological qualification in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017,the group of low technological industry always appropriated the biggest proportion, the group of average technological industry always appropriated a smaller 17 proportion and the group of high technological industry always appropriated the smallest proportion in industrial manufacturing value This reflected that the qualification of industry in Mekong Delta is currently still very low 4.2.1.4 The proportion of service industries in The proportion of some service industries in GRDP in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 shifted according to the following trend: Table 4.15: The proportion of some service industries in GRDP in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 Unit: % 2000 2005 2010 2017 GRDP 100 100 100 100 The group of service industry: 29,1 30,6 36,4 41,6 + Commerce; repair motor car, motorcycle 9,4 9,2 11,3 13,8 + Staying and food service 3,0 3,6 3,7 4,8 + Parking transport, information and media 3,3 3,7 4,0 4,1 + The activities of finance, bank, insurance 3,4 3,8 3,5 3,1 + Specialized activity, technological 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,5 science + Education and training 2,2 2,6 2,8 3,6 + Other service industries 7,8 7,8 10,8 11,6 Source: PhD student summarizes from statistic yearbook in 13 provinces, cities belonging to Mekong Delta Table 4.15 shows that the proportion of most service industries in GRDP had the trend of increasing with different levels (only deduct the proportion of finance, bank and insurance, there was the trend of decreasing) 4.2.2 The structure of working labourers in the economy The structure of working labourers in the ecnomics in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2010 - 2017 shifted properly with the rule of shift of labour structure during the process of industrialization, modernization However, this process takes place slowly The labourer in the group of agriculture - forestry - seafood, labourer without specialized technical qualification also appropriated the highest proportion; in contrast, the group of industry - construction, labourer with specialized technical qualificaiton also appropriated the lowest proportion in total social labour 4.2.3 The structure of exporting goods The structure of exporting turnover was divided according to the group of goods in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017, also shifted properly with the rule and reflected the process of shifting the structure of economicsin Mekong Delta during last period 18 4.3 The achievement, limitation and essential reasons of limitations during the process of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 4.3.1 The achievement First, GRDP structure was divided according to the group of economics in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017, shifted properly with the rule of structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization Second, the kinds of structure of manufacturing value in the group of agriculture - forestry - seafood: + The structure of manufacturing value of agriculture - forestry - seafood is divided according to the economics shifted according to positive direction, improved economic effectiveness + The structure of agricultural manufacturing value is divided according to the economics shifted in proper direction The structure of manufacturing value of planting industry is divided according to the group of planting trees The structure of manufacturing value of breeding industry is divided according to the group of domestic animals, shifted from the groups of planting trees, domestic animals have low economic effectivess to the groups of planting trees Breeding animals have higher economic effectiveness + In the forestry, the areas of protective forest land and forest land for special use had the trend of increasing + The structure of seafood manufacturing value is divided according to operating industry shifted according to the trend of promoting, exploiting the potential and benefit about the zone’s aquiculture Third, the proportion of industries and construction in GRDP, the structure of industrial manufacturing value: + The proportion of industries and construction in GRDP: in the group of industry - construction, the proportion of exploiting industry in GRDP had the trend of decreasing; in contrast, the proportion of industries, construction in GRDP had the trend of increasing + The structure of industrial production is divided according to the industry, the industries of material source of agricultural product and seafood, abundant human resource had the market of domestic and foreign consumption advantageously, developed strongly to make the proportion of these industries in industrial manufacturing value have the trend of increasing In contrast, the industries met many difficulties about the source of materials and the ability of consuming the products in the market, developed slower to make the proportion of these industries in industrial manufacturing value have the trend of decreasing Fourth, about the proportion of service industries in GRDP, the proportion of most service industries inGRDP had the trend of increasing 19 Fifth, the structure of ecnomics in Mekong Delta during last period shifted properly with the rule of shifting the strucutre of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization, promoted the zone’s potential and benefit, contributed on increasing social labour productivity, promoted rapidly economic growth speed, guaranteed economic growth speed, food security of whole country and promoted social advance in the zone during last period 4.3.2 The limitation First, GRDP structure was divided according to the group of economics in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017, shifted accordiing to the direction of industrialization, modernization slowly The group of agriculture - forestry seafood also appropriated a high proportion in GRDP, the group of industry construction also appropriated the lowest proportion in GRDP Second, the kinds of structure of manufacturing value in the group of agriculture - forestry - seafood: + The industry also appropriated the highest proportion and seafood industry also a low proportion in the value of manufacturing agriculture - forestry - seafood + The structure of agricultural manufacturing value is divided according to the economics, the structure of manufacturing value of planting industry is divided according to the group of planting trees and the structure of manufacturing value of breeding industry is divided accordiing to the group of domestic animals shifted according to advanced direction very slow The structure of manufacturing value between planting and breeding industries, the group of food trees and the groups of other trees, between the group of domestic animals and other groups of domestic animals aren’t reasonable yet Besides, there are many limitations in the seed whcih the farmer uses to manufacture, manufacturing technique is still low; small retailing manufacturing scale is major; the association according value chain in agricultural production is still narrow, isn’t still popularized yet + In the forestry: the area of manufacturing forest land has the trend of decreasing strongly Morever, in the structure of forestry manufacturing value is divided according to operating industry, the proportion of planting industry and forest care in forestry manufacturing value is rather small, had the trend of decreasing; in contrast, the proportion of wood and other forestry exploiting industry is always biggest There is the trend of increasing Third, the proportion of industries and construction in GRDP, the structure of industrial manufacturing value: + The proportion of industries and construction in GRDP shifted accordiing to advanced direction is very slow Processing industry also appropriates a low proportion in GRDP Here is essential limitation which needs to overcome in coming time 20 + The structure of industrial manufacturing value is divided according to the industry shifted according to advanced direction very slow The structure of industrial manufacturing value is divided according to technological qualification reflects that the qualification of industry in Mekong Delta currently is still very low Fourth, in the group of service industry, traditional service industry uses many popular labourers and needs a little of investing capital such as commercial industry, repairing motor car, motorcycle and other engine motorcycle, staying and food service which also appropirate a high proportion in GRDP In contrast, service industries have the property of motivation, effect to promote the process of industrialization, modernization such as parking transportation, information and media, finance, bank and insurance, scientific and technological activities, education and training which always appropriate a low proportion in GRDP 4.3.3 The limitations’ essential reasons First, the State’s effect with the shift of structure of ecnomics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta during last period is limited much Second, about natural condition, prominent thing is double effect from changing the climate, rising sea water and exploiting water resource on the upstream of Mekong river Third, about human resource, the structure of total social labour which is divided according to the group of economics in Mekong Delta during last period is still limited, intellectual premises and the quality of human resource are still lower than other economic - social zones of whole country Fourth, aboutinvesting capital, the capacity of reinforcing force source of investing capital is also limited, especially as FDI capital, investing structure isn’t reasonable yet and the effectiveness of using investing capital has the trend of decreasing Fifth, the qualification of science - technology is also lower than average level of whole country Sixth, the stageof consuming goods always meets many difficulties and isn’t stable Besides, the infrastructure of production in Mekong Delta is bad, especially as the system of road, bridge, port and irrigation works CHAPTER 5: THE ORIENTATION AND ESSENTIAL SOLUTIONS TO PROMOTE THE SHIFT OF STRUCTURE OF ECONOMICS DURING THE PROCESS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION, MODERNIZATION IN MEKONG DELTA UNTIL 2025 5.1 New context influences to the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta in coming time 5.1.1 International new context includes: industrialrevolution on the fourth time; global economic trend and economic area, international economic integration and area of whole country in coming time; double effect from changing the climate, rising sea water and exploiting water resource in the upstream of Mekong Delta This international new context just opens new 21 opportunities, but also puts big challenges with the shift of structure of economics in the zone in coming time 5.1.2 New context in Mekong Delta With a geographic poisition, natural conditions, population and human resource, with real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017, Mekong Delta had the potentials and advantages about the group of food trees, vegetables and fruit trees in the industries ofplanting, seafood, food and beverage processing industry, industries with high contents of labourers, regenerating energy and gas - electricity - protein, and tourism However, Mekong Delta has also the limitations about intellectual premises and the quality of human resource, the capacity of reinforcing investing capital, scientific - technological qualification, production’s infrastructure 5.2 Point of view, general target and orientation of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 5.2.1 Point of view about shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta in coming time On the basis of real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 and international new context, new context in Mekong Delta, the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta in coming time: (i) attach with technical, technological changes suitably; (ii) obey according to the rules of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization; (iii) promote maximum potentials and advantages compared to available changes of zone, simultaenously create regularly and positively comparative advantages in the future, improve rapidly comparative ability with the zone’s kinds of goods, service in domestic and foreign market; (iv) adopt with climate changes, rising sea water and exploiting water resource on the upstream of Mekong Delta; (v) contribute on keeping social politics stable, reinforce national defence and security, develop solidly and withdraw the distance about developing qualification compared to common premises of whole country 5.2.2 General target of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 The shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 to orient to the structure of industrial economy - agriculture - service, with modern facilities technique, have high social productivity, join effectively international assignment and cooperation, contribute on stable politics - society, solid security national defence, protect ecological environment and withdraw the distance about developing qualification compared to common premises of whole country 5.2.3 The orientation of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 22 Persuant to real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 and the point of view about shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta in coming time, the orientation of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 is specific as follows: 5.2.3.1 GRDP structure which is divided according to the group of economics in Mekong Delta in coming timeneeds to shift according to rapidly decreasing direction of proportion in the group of industries of agriculture forestry - seafood in GRDP, increases rapidly the proportion in the group of industries of industry - construction and service in GRDP to orient to economic structure of industry - agriculture - service for a long time 5.2.3.2 About the kinds of manufacturing value structure in the group of agriculture - forestry - seafood industries First, the structure of manufacturing value of agriculture - forestry seafood is divided according to the economy in Mekong Delta in coming time, needs to shift according to the direction to continue increasing the proportion of seafood industry, decreasing equivalent proportion of agriculture and forestry in the value of manufacturing the agricuture - forestry - seafood Second, the structure of agricultural manufacturing value is divided according to the economy in Mekong Delta in coming time, needs to shift according to the direction of increasing rapidly the proportion of breeding, decreasing rapidly the proportion of planting industry in agricultural manufacturing value In planting industry, need to increase rapidly the proportion for the group of vegetables and fruit tree, decrease rapidly the proportion for the group of food and industrial trees in manufacturing value of planting industry In breeding industry, the kinds of major domestic animals need to be promoted to develop in Mekong Delta in coming time as beef, pork and domestic animals Must attach the shift of internal structure of this industry with applying rapidly scientific - technological advance to the production Move gradually from small retailing agricultural production to farm agriculture, big-scale focused agriculture Attach manufacturing with processing, associating according to value chian in agricultural production, build the trademark of agricultural products to improve the value of agricultrual products in the zone Third, forestry needs to expand the area of kinds of forest as manufacturing forest, protecting forest and forest for special use Fourth, the structure of seafood manufacturing value is divided according to operating industry in Mekong Delta in coming time, needs to shift according to the direction of continuing increasing the proportion in the industry of aquaculture, decreasing the proportion of aquaculture exploitation industry in the zone’s seafood manufacturing value In the industry of aquaculture, need to expand breeding area, adjust breeding method and focus on major breeding 23 objects suitably with ecological conditions, the trend of climate change as well domestic and foreign consumption market In the industry of seafood exploitation, need to decrease the exploitation near the edge, increase exploiting far with the edge with protecting, regenerating and developing the source of seafood 5.2.3.3 About the proportion of industries and construction industry in GRDP, industrial manufacturing value structure First, about the proportion of processing industry in GRDP: need to increase rapidly the proportion of processing industry in GRDP in the zone in coming time Second, about the structure of industrial production: need to develop strongly some industries which Mekong Delta is having the potential and benefits such as manufacturing industry, food and beverage processing industry; weaving; clothes manufacturing Simultaneously, need to form and develop some high technology industries in the first stage such as electronic assembly; manufacture, assemble electric equipments; manufacture spare parts of dynamic machine by gasoline The process of shifting the structure of industrial production value needs to improve technical - technological qualification of industries 5.2.3.4 The proportion of service industries in GRDP in Mekong Delta in coming time needs to shift according to the following trend: continue increasing the proportion of traditional service industries in GRDP such as the industry of trading, repairing motor car, motorcycle and other engine vehicle; staying service and food industry Simultaneously, need to increase rapidly the proportion of some dynamic service industries such as the industries of parking lot transportion, information and media; finance, bank and insurance; scientific and technological activities; education and training During this process, need to apply rapidly scientific - technological advance to the production, especially as applicable information technology 5.3 The groups of essential solutions to promote the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 Pursuant to essential reason of limitations during the process of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 and the structure of economics in the zone in coming time according to the above mentioned orientation, need to implement synchronously some essential solutions as follows: 5.3.1 The group of solution about the mechanism, policy includes: First, build an integrated planning copy for Mekong Delta Second, referential policies about tax and credit with some prefered industries, fields 5.3.2 The group of solution about human resource includes: First, promote the speed of shifting the structure of total social labourers according to the group of economics according to advanced direction Second,expand training 24 scale Third, adjust the structure of qualification and training department Fourth,improve training quality Fifth, attract talented persons 5.3.3 The group of solution about the capital includes: First, reinforce maximum source of capital Second, adjust the structure of investment Third, improve the effectiveness of using investing capital 5.3.4 The group of scientific and technological solutions includes: promote develop scientific and technological activities in the zone, promote applying scientific and technolgoical researching results to the production, develop scientific and technological market 5.3.5 The group of solution about expanding goods consuming market and service includes the solutions to expand consumption market in the country and foreign country Besides, need to change the administration; promote associating the zone, cooperate between Mekong Delta with other economic - social zones of whole country, especially as Ho Chi Minh City, cooperate with countries of expanding Mekong zone; develop synchronously the production’s infrastructure 5.4 Some requests - Request with the Government, Central Ministries and Departments: + Ministry of Education and Training, Ministry of Labour - Wounded Soldiers and Society need to prefer investing capital with universities, colleges and public high school belonging to Ministry in the area + Central budget needs to increase the rate of supporting the capital for theprovinces in the zone, reinforce the investment to the works belonging to the production’s infrastructure in the zone + Ministry of Finance needs to pilot the localities to borrw invested foreign capital to the zone’s important infrastructure + The goverment needs to reinforce, support the State’s developing investing credit capital for some economics, encourage, develop, especially as agriculture, famrer and rural zones + Credit organizations need to reinforce the task of reinforcing the capital in the localities in the zone and country, simplify the procedures of borrowing the capital, promulgate the system of borrowing interest reasonably + Ministry of Science and Technology needs to bring scientific and technological developing strategy for Mekong Delta soon + The government needs to organize, implement well Directive no 25/2008/CT-TTg of Governmental Prime Ministry on August 25th 2008 about reinforcing, directing the consumption of agricultural products through the contract + Ministry of Planning and Investment needs to build an integrated Planning copy for Mekong Delta soon 25 - Request with People Council, People Committee, Services, departments in the provinces, cities belonging to Mekong Delta: + People Councils in the levels of provinces, cities belonging to Mekong Delta need to prefer with the education, training and vocational training in the area + Local budget: first, need to collect properly, collect fully and in time; otherwise, need to practise, save to increase the investment, development + Need to coordinate closely between the localities with related Ministries, departmetns to build the list of preferred programs, projects about using ODA capital source + Need to improve business environment; promote and increase the effectiveness of domestic and foreign investing promoting activities + Services of Industry and Trade need to create maximum conditions for the enterprises, manufacturing agencies in joining the fairs, domestic and foreign exhibition THE CONCLUSION The thesis summarized related researching works to the thesis’s topic about reasoning aspect such as: internal function of concept about the shift of structure of economics, the norms of assessing the shift of structure of economics, the factors which influence to forming and shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization; the overview of related researching works to the thesis’s topic about practical aspect On that basis, assess commonly the contributions about reasoning and practical aspects, simultaneously define researching space The thesis built scientific basis about the structure of economics and the shift of structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization Whereas, important focus is to analyze, make clear the concept about the shift of structure of economics, the factors influence forming and shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization The thesis presented the methodology, specific researching methods and the way of utilizing each method in the thesis About the methodology, dialectical method of materialism and scientific abstract method About specific researching methods, there is systematic approaching method; the method of statistics, description; the method of analysis, synthetics; united historical method with logic method; comparative method Whereas, the methods of statistical, description are basic, essential Besides, the thesis also refered to the sources of data, proposed analyzing and building frames of researching procedure of this topic The thesis introduced generally natural and social characteristics in Mekong Delta Analyze real situation of shifting the structure of economics 26 during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta in the stage of 2000 - 2017 On that basis, assess the achievement, limitation and find out essential reasons of limitations during the process of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta in this stage The thesis analyzed new context where influences to the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta in coming time On that basis, define the opinion, orientation and general target of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 The thesis also proposed some essential solutions to promote the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 according to chosen orientation From that, state some requetss with the Government,Central Ministries, Departments; with Peoople Council, People Committee, Services, Departments in the provinces, cities in Mekong Delta Although trying to my best, firstly due to PhD’s ability Then, due to wide, complex topic and data system which PhD student had, analyzing real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industralization, modernization in Mekong Delta in the stage of 2000 - 2017 about the aspect of quality, as well as analyzing real situation, building the orientation and proposing some essential solutions with bad zones Therefore, PhD student would like to wish the scientists to advise and accept the limitations in this thesis About this topic’s next researching direction, it’s: the shift of structure of economics about quality aspect during the process of industrializaiton, modernization in Mekong Delta until 2025; the shift of structure of economics with bad zones during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta until 2025; develop the education and training to promote the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025; develop scientific and technological activities to promote the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025; perfect economic institutions to promote the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025 THE AUTHOR’S LIST OF DECLARED RESEARCHING WORKS RELATES TO THE THESIS Nguyen Van Tron, 2016 The shift of internal structure of agriculture - forestry seafood in Mekong Delta during the process of industrialization, modernization University of Economics in HCMC: The topic of scientific research in the level of University - Chairman Nguyen Van Tron, 2016 Propagandize to expand the model of big field in Mekong Delta: Real situation and solutions Scientific Council, Central Party Agencies: The topic of scientific research in the level of Ministry - Member Nguyen Van Tron, 2014 Promote the shift of structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization to contribute on bringing our country basically into an industrial country according to the modernization in 2020 Social Scientific Magazine in Central Direction - Vietnamese Social Scientific Academy, number 6, pages12-17, ISSN 1859-2635 Nguyen Van Tron, 2015 The shift of internal structure of agriculture - forestry seafood in Mekong Delta Magazine of Communism - Board of Leaders in the Southwest - Can Tho City: The industrialization, modernization, rural zone in Mekong Delta for 30 years of change Hanoi: National Politics Publisher - The truth, ISBN: 978-604-57-1150-7 Nguyen Van Tron, 2019 Some solutions to promote the shift of structure of economics in Mekong Delta Magazine of Finance, Number 705, pages 146-149, ISSN-2651-8973 ... forming and shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization + Analyze, assess real situation of shifting the structure of economics during the process of. .. reasons of limitations during the process of shifting the structure of economics in the zone for this stage + Build the orientation of shifting the structure of economics in Mekong Delta until 2025. .. of shifting the structure of economics during the process of industrialization, modernization in Mekong Delta for the stage of 2000 - 2017 and the point of view about shifting the structure of