To study the employment situation and employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province for the period of 2013-2017, proposing solutions to 2025 with a vision to 2030 socio-economic development of the locality.
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HANOI UNIVERSITY OF BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY DO MINH TUAN JOB SOLUTIONS FOR THE AGRICULTURAL LABORERS IN THE URBANIZATION PROGRESS IN THANH HOA PROVINCE Major: Business Administration Code: 62.34.01.02 ECONOMICS DOCTORAL SUMMARY HANOI - 2018 INTRODUCTION Introduction on the thesis The thesis is written with a total of 157 pages, of which the page numbers of each chapter, each part is divided as follows: (introduction: pages, chapter 1: 16 pages, chapter 2: 38 pages, chapter 3: 62 pages, chapter 4: 33 pages, conclusion: pages) The thesis was conducted through the reference process of 112 documents (including 95 documents in Vietnamese and 17 documents in foreign languages) The thesis is illustrated through 41 tables, 03 charts, 01 figure and 01 diagram The thesis has studied the rationale for employment, employment solutions, employment solution content for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in the Supply-Demand approach as well as the analysis of factors aecting employment Based on the experience of employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization in some countries in the world and some localities in Vietnam, the thesis has drawn lessons for Thanh Hoa Province The thesis surveyed the employment situation and employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Tho Xuan, Tinh Gia Districts, Thanh Hoa city, showing that there is still a large part of agricultural laborers losing their job due to urbanization This phenomenon is due to the following reasons: 1) group of factors in the supply of agricultural laborers; 2) group of factors under the employment demand for agricultural laborers; 3) Group of policy factors From the analysis of the situation of employment solutions at the research sites, through the SWOT analysis, the thesis proposes solutions to solve the problem of agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province in the time to come The necessity of the thesis After more than 30 years of renovation and industrialization, the country's urbanization, agriculture and rural areas have made impressive strides in socio-economic development However, unemployment, lack of employment in this area is less improved and more and more serious Therefore, the employment solution for agricultural laborers in the process of industrialization and urbanization is an urgent issue of the Party and the State, of the current branches and levels Thanh Hoa is a large province in North Central Vietnam with a population of over 3.5 million (2016), of which 82.93% of the population are living rural areas, 17.07% of the population are living in urban areas Along with abundant labor force and also one of the localities with high unemployment rate in agriculture, in 2016, underemployment of Thanh Hoa is 4.95% compared to 2.28% in all over country The population of the province has increased rapidly, with an average of 2.34% in the period 2012 - 2016 The number of people added to the social work force is relatively large annually, mainly in agriculture areas, countryside Along with the economic development, urbanization in Thanh Hoa is also very strong, urbanization has changed the face of rural areas, a large part of agricultural land will move to industrial and urban land, inevitably increase the number of underemployed laborers in the agricultural sector, rural areas and changes in many aspects of life, economy and society Therefore, the employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization in Thanh Hoa Province should be studied seriously, pointing out the shortcomings, constraints, causes and barriers to help Thanh Hoa Province clearly identify shortcomings in economic development and economic restructuring of the province Based on that, propose orientations and solutions to solve the problem of employment for agricultural laborers in Thanh Hoa Province in the coming time Starting from the above urgent issues, the Ph.D candidate selects the title: “Employment solutions for the agricultural laborers in the urbanization progres in Thanh Hoa Province”, as the title of Economics Doctoral Thesis, major of Business Administration Research objectives and mission 3.1 Objectives: To study the employment situation and employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province for the period of 2013-2017, proposing solutions to 2025 with a vision to 2030 socio-economic development of the locality 3.2 Mission - To clarify the rationale and practical experience in employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization; Establish theoretical frameworks for employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization - To analyze the situation of employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province; Indicates achievements, limitations and causes - To propose directions and some key solutions to employment solutions and increase income for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization in Thanh Hoa Province until 2025 with a vision to 2030 Research scope: Spatial scope: Do research in Thanh Hoa Province, referring to experiences of some countries in the region and in the country Primary data were collected in Districts (Tho Xuan District, Tinh Gia District, Thanh Hoa city) Timing scope: Analyze and evaluate the current situation of employment and employment solutions in the period of 2013 - 2017; Propose solution until 2025 and vision to 2030 Content scope: - The thesis researches solutions to create jobs for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization In particular, focus on employment solutions for agricultural laborers living in rural areas, redundant agricultural laborers working in the field of agriculture and surplus agricultural laborers operating in other areas of the urbanization process - The thesis focuses on two main contents (expanding the employment demand for agricultural laborers and improving the quality of agricultural labor supply) in Thanh Hoa Province - The thesis focuses on employment solutions for agricultural labor mainly from sides (state management agencies and enterprises) for agricultural laborers living in rural areas - The thesis examines the factors affecting the employment for agricultural labor in the urbanization process such as the factor group of agricultural labor supply (population, working age, education, professional level of laborers, soft skills, education and training ); Factors related to employment demand for agricultural laborers (business environment, economic development in urbanization, etc.); Group of factors belongs to state policy Research questions - How does the situation of urbanization in Thanh Hoa take place? - How is the economic structure of Thanh Hoa Province moving in the process of urbanization? - How does the urbanization process affect the employment of Thanh Hoa's agricultural laborers? - What is the problem of employment for agricultural laborers of the province in the past time? What are the advantages and disadvantages? - What solutions to solve the employment of agricultural laborers in the province in the process of urbanization in the coming time? Structure of the thesis Apart from the introduction, conclusion, list of references, the thesis note is divided into chapters: Chapter Overview and research methodology; Chapter Scientific basis on employment solutions for agricultural labor in the process of urbanization; Chapter The current situation of agricultural labor solutions in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province; Chapter Employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province CHAPTER OVERVIEW AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 1.1 Overview of research works relating to the thesis title 1.1.1 The researches in foreign countries - Studies on employment and policy: There are many studies on employment and policy, such as: In 1936, J.M Keynes, “Theory of Employment, Interest Rates and Monetary”; In 1976, Todaro, M P “Internal Migration in Developing Countries: A Review of Theory, Evidence, Methodology and Research Priorities”; International Labor Office, Geneva 26; In 2003, Martin M & Ronald W.M, Unemployment duration and employability in remote rural labor markets; In 2009, Harry Toshima, Essay in development of Economics in honor of Harry Toshima - Labor market studies: In 1998, Ben Fine, A constructive reassessment; In 2006, Jenkins, Globalization, FDI and employment in Viet Nam; In 2008, Lu, Ming and Shiquing Jiang, Reform of the labor market, income inequality and economic growth in China; In 2008, Alex Warren-Rodríguez, “The impact of the global crisis on employment levels in Poland: an elasticity approach”, UNDP Vietnam Technical Note; 2014, International Labor Organization, “Global Report: World Employment 2014: Development with Employment” 1.1.2 Domestic research works - Studies on employment and policy: The authors' researches include: Bui Ngoc Lan (2007); Tran Thi Minh Ngoc (2010): Employment of farmers in the process of industrialization and modernization of the Red River Delta up to 2020; Le Du Phong (2007), Income, life and employment of people whose land is recovered for the construction of industrial zones, urban areas, socio-economic infrastructure, public works national interests; Vietnam Institute of Economics (2010), Employment, Investment, Trade and Enterprise Development in Vietnam; Le Quoc Hoi (2012), Employment and life of laborers in industrial zones, export processing zones and economic zones in Vietnam; Nguyen Van Thang (2013) “Employment policies for rural youth in areas subject to land recovery”; Nguyen Hoai Nam (2015), Employment policy for rural laborers in the context of migration - Research in some provinces in North Central Vietnam; Pham Ngoc Canh (2015), Employment for rural youth in Nghe An; Tran Thi Minh Giang (2017), employment solutions for farmers whose land is revoked in Vinh city, Nghe An province - Labor market studies: Hoang Kim Ngoc (2003), Small and Medium Enterprise Development contributes to employment solutions and labor restructuring in rural areas; Le Xuan Ba (2008), Employment development associated with the shift of rural-urban labor structure; The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (2001), Some issues on industrialization and modernization in agricultural and rural economy in the 20012020 period; Hanoi Agricultural University (2012), Agriculture, rural areas, farmers in the process of industrialization and urbanization in Vietnam; Dang Kim Son (2008), Agriculture, Farmers, Rural Vietnam - Today and tomorrow, International experience in agriculture, rural areas, farmers in the process of industrialization 1.1.3 The key issues of the thesis but haven not been properly mentioned in the research The research works at home and abroad analyzed different aspects of employment, employment in general There has been no deep research on the changing livelihoods and livelihoods resources for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process The above-mentioned studies also not deeply analyze the problem of solving employment associated with the efficient use of resources, especially socio-economic development in the context of international economic integration In addition, researches in different time and space have not studied employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province On the basis of utilizing and exploiting the potential of resources to create jobs in the agriculture of the province Based on the SWOT analysis of the Supply-Demand approach, the thesis proposes solutions to promote and facilitate market development in the direction of linking agricultural value chains as well as developing local high technology application agriculture The development of non-agricultural sector and rural economy; the ability to connect supply-demand for labor in the area with the neighborhoods and the effectiveness of employment solution policies… 1.2 Research methodology 1.2.1 Approach, analytical framework 1.2.1.1 Participatory approach 1.2.1.2 Approaches by economics types, organizations 1.2.1.3 Approach to open market 1.2.1.4 Analytical framework Determining the research points + Tinh Gia District + Tho Xuan District + Thanh Hoa City Content of employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the urganization process + Expand the employment demand for agricultural laborers + Improve the quality of agricultural laborer supply Employ ment solution for agricultu ral workers in the process of urbaniza tion Assessment on employment solution situation for agricultural laborers in the urganization process in Thanh Hoa Province + Supply of agricultural laborers + Employment demand for agricultural laborers + The labor market balance + The achievements, limitations and causes Analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges of employment in urbanization in Thanh Hoa province by SWOT matrix Factors influencin g the employme nt solutions in agricultur al work during urbanizati on + Group of factors in labor supply + The factor group belongs to Job demand + Group of drug factors on state policy Employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the urganization process in Thanh Hoa Province + Orientation + Solutions Conclusion Diagram 2.1 Analytical framework for employment solutions for agricultural laborers in urbanization process Source: Implemented by the Ph.D Candidate in 2006 1.2.2 Selecting research locations: In the research, we selected locations: Tinh Gia District, Tho Xuan District and Thanh Hoa city These are the localities representing the subregions of Thanh Hoa Province 1.2.3 Method of data collection 1.2.3.1 Secondary data 1.2.3.2 Primary data 1.2.4 Method of data systhesis and analysis 1.2.5 Indicator system used in the research Chapter SCIENTIFIC BASIS ON EMPLOYMENT SOLUTION FOR AGRICULTURAL LABORERS IN THE URGANIZATION PROCESS 2.1 Some relating concepts 2.1.1 Laborers 2.1.2 Agricultural laborers 2.1.3 Employment and employment solutions 2.1.4 Urbanization 2.1.5 Employment solutions for agricultural laborers in urganization process 2.2 Content of Employment solutions for agricultural laborers in urbanization process 2.2.1 Expanding employment for agricultural laborers The employment demand for laborers is the labor demand of the economy at a given time, usually determined by the employment indicator Employment demand for the labor of an economy depends on the following factors: the economic development of the country; Industry structure and sectoral distribution; The technological level of machinery and equipment used; Unemployment and inflation; State policies that affect Employment demand; Gender, age, ethnicity The employment demand for agricultural laborers is the number of jobs that economic and social organizations have the need to use and are able to pay wages or salaries to be entitled to use them for a certain period of time In the process of urbanization, unemployed laborers are mainly agricultural laborers The simplest solution is to allocate the right to use agricultural land in other places so that they continue to work in their existing jobs 2.2.2 Enhancing the quality of agricultural labor supply Agricultural labor supply is a part of the working-age population who is capable of working, is working in the agricultural sector or has demand of supplying labor for the agricultural sector to get a job Agricultural labor supply depends on the following factors: size and growth of population; The size and growth of human resources; Length of working time of the employee; Living standards of the population; Educational level, customs and habits The urbanization process causes agricultural laborers to lose their jobs, which means that there is a surplus of labor in agriculture In order to get a job, they have to change jobs, find new jobs Since agricultural laborers are jobless due to the urbanization of different ages, vocational training suitable for all ages must be respected 2.3 Factors affecting employment solution for agricultural laborers during urbanization 2.3.1 Factor group of agricultural laborer supply - Factors affecting the quantity of agricultural labor supply - Factors affecting the quality of agricultural labor supply 2.3.2 Group of factors belong to Employment demand for agricultural laborers - Business environment - Economic development in the process of urbanization - The development of cultivators in the agricultural sector 2.3.3 Group of elements of the state policy 2.4 Experiences of employment solution for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization in some countries, localities and lessons learned for Thanh Hoa Province 2.4.1 Experiences of some countries in the world 2.4.1.1 Experience of Thailand 2.4.1.2 Experience of China 2.4.1.3 Experience of Korea 2.4.2 Experiences of some localities in the country 2.4.2.1 Experiences of Bac Ninh Province 2.4.2.2 Experiences of Quang Ninh Province 2.4.3 Lessons learned for Thanh Hoa Province Chapter THE EMPLOYMENT SOLUTION SITUATION FOR AGRICULTURAL LABORERS IN THE URBANIZATION PROCESS IN THANH HOA CITY 3.1 Natural and socio-economic characteristics of employment solution for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization in Thanh Hoa Province 3.1.1 Natural and socio-economic conditions of Thanh Hoa Province 3.1.1.1 Natural conditions Geographical location - Topographic - Climate - Natural resources 3.1.1.2 Socio-economic conditions - Population and laborers Table 3.1 Population and population distribution in Thanh Hoa Province for period 2013 - 2017 Explanation Year Total Urban Rural 2013 3.457,9 398,4 3.059,5 2014 3.477,7 491,8 2.985,9 Thousand people 2015 3.496,1 513,9 2.982,2 2016 3.512,1 556,5 2.955,6 2017 3.528,3 602,4 2.925,9 2013 0,59 3,88 0,17 2014 0,57 23,43 (2,41) Increasing ratio 2015 0,53 4,49 (0,12) (%) 2016 0,46 8,29 (0,90) 2017 0,46 8,25 (1,01) 2013 100,00 11,52 88,48 2014 100,00 14,14 85,86 Structure (%) 2015 100,00 14,70 85,30 2016 100,00 15,85 84,15 2017 100,00 17,07 82,93 Source: Thanh Hoa Statistical Office Employment situation; Technical facilities; Results of economic development Table 3.2 Economic growth of Thanh Hoa Province 2014 - 2017 Unit: Billion dong Average increase (%) Indicators 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010/ 2015/ 2016/ 2017/ 2015 2014 2015 2016 Total GRDP 68.379 74.119 80.825 88.165 11,14 8,39 9,05 9,08 As per economics industries - Agriculture, forestry and 13.011 13.307 13.634 13.911 2,91 2,28 2,46 2,03 fisheries - Industry and 28.392 31.674 35.380 39.561 16,00 11,56 11,70 11,82 construction - Services 24.007 25.566 28.196 30.942 13,72 6,49 10,29 9,74 - Product tax 2.969 3.573 3.615 3.750 - 20,33 1,18 3,75 As per economics sectors - State 16.989 18.380 19.011 19.735 7,21 8,19 3,43 3,81 - Non-state 43.595 46.308 51.135 56.300 11,21 6,22 10,42 10,10 - Foreign 4.826 5.859 7.065 8.379 24,14 21,39 20,59 18,60 investment - Product tax 2.969 3.573 3.615 3.750 - 20,33 1,18 3,75 Source: Thanh Hoa Statistical Yearbook 2017; Annual Socio-Economic Statistics Report - Thanh Hoa Statistical Office 3.1.1.3 Impacts of natural, socio-economic conditions on employment solution for agricultural laborers during urbanization in Thanh Hoa Province - Advantages - Difficulties 3.1.2 Situation of agricultural development of Thanh Hoa Province over time Agricultural production in the province has developed relatively stably, contributing an important part in satisfying the demand of food and foodstuff for the people, of which the livestock sector has developed quite high (9.5%, the period of 2013- 2017), contributing significantly to the growth and economic restructuring of agriculture Agricultural production is moving positively towards the production of goods Table 3.3 Some targets for agricultural, forestry and fishery development No Indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Production value I (Billion dong) 29.686 32.323 36.270 37.645 38.784 - Agriculture 23.587 25.046 28.109 28.742 29.276 - Forestry 1.223 1.959 2.132 2.146 2.491 - Fisheries 4.876 5.318 6.029 6.757 7.017 II Structure (%) 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 - Agriculture 79,45 77,49 77,50 76,35 75,48 - Forestry 4,12 6,06 5,88 5,70 6,43 - Fisheries 16,43 16,45 16,62 17,95 18,09 Source: Thanh Hoa Statistical Office 3.1.3 Overview of the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province over time 3.1.3.1 Situation of industrial development 3.1.3.2 The number of urban and urban population In recent years, in addition to the socio-economic development process of the country in general and Thanh Hoa Province in particular, the urban space of Thanh Hoa Province has been constantly expanded, the rate of urbanization and the proportion of urban population growth has increased significantly Table 3.4 Rate of urbanization in Thanh Hoa Province 2013-2017 Ratio of Urban Ratio urban Number of No Year urbanization population population urbans (%) (people) (%) 2013 29 13,30 462.100 3.476.600 2014 31 16,20 568.300 3.498.600 2015 31 18,20 634.788 3.496.000 2016 35 22,40 790.300 3.528.300 2017 35 23,50 Source: Department of Construction, Thanh Hoa Province 2018 3.1.3.3 Urban planning work By 2016, all urban centers in the province have been prepared and approved on urban master plans, some urbans have been adjusted many times 25 urban areas have been adjusted 12 For the surveyed sites in Thanh Hoa city, Tinh Gia District and Tho Xuan District, the average number of laborers per household is not much different Of which, the labor force of households surveyed at locations have differences In Thanh Hoa, agricultural laborers (including purely agricultural laborers and cum laborers) account for only 25% while those in the service sector account for the largest share of 43.69% and industry accounting for 31.07% In addition, in the survey in Tinh Gia District, where there are many industrial parks, the rate of agricultural labor is still high, the total number of agricultural laborers and agricultural labor accounted for 32% while , industrial labor accounted for 48.21%, service laborers number is very low, accounting for only 19.64% Table 3.8 Survey data on work types of the research locations Indicators Thanh Hoa City Tinh Gia Tho Xuan District District Number of laborers 103 112 107 (persons) Agricultural laborers 16 32 Industrial laborers 32 54 16 Labor service industry 45 22 28 Labor and other sectors 21 20 31 Ratio (%) 100 100 100 Agricultural laborers 4,85 14,29 29,91 Industrial laborers 31,07 48,21 14,95 Labor service industry 43,69 19,64 26,17 Agricultural laborers and others 20,39 17,86 28,97 Source: The data invested by the Ph.D candidate, year 2017 Considering the labor structure shifting process, an important indicator that needs to be evaluated is the employment elasticity of Thanh Hoa Province Table 3.9 shows the employment elasticity Economic growth and job elasticity are closely related The higher the employment elasticity of GDP is, the more labor-intensive it is, and vice versa If economic growth creates fewer new jobs it is an alarming sign It shows the irrationality in using resources for growth However, employment growth is not only driven by economic growth but also through labor-market measures and policies Table 3.9 Elasticity of employment in Thanh Hoa Province for stage 2013 - 2017 Agriculture, Industry Indicators General forestry, and Services fisheries construction GRDP increase rate (%) Average 11,8 3,4 15,6 11,5 Employment increase ratio (%) Average 5,53 -5,98 30,86 5,53 Employment elasticity compared to increase 1% GRDP Average 0,47 -1,76 1,98 0,48 Source: Thanh Hoa Statistical Office and calculations of PhD candidate 13 The employment elasticity of Thanh Hoa is 0.47, which means that for every 1% increase in GDP of the economy, the employment growth is 0.47%, the employment elasticity is higher (higher than the general level for the period 2013 - 2017, the employment elasticity of the country is 0.23 This means that Thanh Hoa's GDP growth has created more jobs than the rest of the country However, the employment elasticity of agriculture, forestry and fisheries is negative, reflecting that the growth of GDP and employment growth is contrariwise In the period 2013 - 2017, the GDP growth rate of agriculture, forestry and fishery will be 3.4%, while the employment growth rate in this sector will decrease - 5.98%, leading to the coefficient of employment elasticity is -1.76% The employment elasticity of the construction and industrial sector is 1.98, a very high level; Employment elasticity in the service sector was 0.48 The high employment growth in the industrial sector and the region's GDP growth rate show that employment in the industrial sector is more productive, attractive and sustainable than other types of production The above analysis shows that the economic structure of Thanh Hoa's agricultural economy in the past time does not ensure the good employment of labor in terms of quantity and quality 3.2.1.3 Labor shifting by economic sectors Considering the shift of agricultural labor, it is necessary to base on the changes of agricultural production in the province over the years The number of agricultural laborers continuing to work in production units, facilities and the number of laborers or conversions depends on the number and size of agricultural production in the locality Table 3.16 shows the variation in agricultural production types, the number of enterprises, affiliated production units, cooperatives, households and farms 3.2.1.4 Development of off-farm employment in rural areas Regarding the employment of rural laborers, in 2013 there are 1,164 thousand agricultural laborers, of which half are agricultural laborers, the rest are agricultural laborers who join in other occupations such as construction and trade, service By 2017, although the number of agricultural laborers decreased 69 thousand people, equivalent to 5.98%, but the number of pure farm laborers dropped by 43.59% compared to 2013 Meanwhile, other cum laborers have a tendency to increase by 31.63%, mainly in the labor and service sector, the labor force of agriculture, forestry and fishery has a decrease of 12.25% 3.2.1.5 Shifting of agricultural labor at the research locations In Thanh Hoa, where the trade and business sector has developed much, the expansion of residential areas has reduced the area of agricultural land, in addition to changing jobs to industrial - trade – service activities, the labor structure for animal husbandry and handicraft is increasing At the same time, cum labor force tends to decrease because many households after the process of cum many jobs, have started to choose their suitable direction and abandon the farming Tinh Gia District, where many industrial parks are developing and is the gateway to 14 the south of the province, the trend of agricultural labor structure shifting is mainly to reduce the percentage of purely agricultural laborers and livestock and handicraft laborers, replaced by the increase in cum labor density in the total laborers of household group and decrease of the absolute laborers of 25% of 2017, compared to 2013 For Tho Xuan District, currently a district with a large proportion of agricultural laborers Results after years show that the number of laborers shifting from agriculture accounts for only 16% of total agricultural laborers (2017) In particular, agricultural laborers mainly shifted from purely agricultural laborers to cum laborers and handicraft laborers Particularly, the number of laborers working in the handicraft industry in 2013 was only 2.94%, in 2017 increased to 19.05% 3.2.2 Employment demand situation for agricultural laborers - Employment demand at the big industrial parks: It is expected that the province will expand Nghi Son economic zone to 106,000 hectares, three industrial parks with a total area of 3,087.61 hectares, and add five new industrial zones with an area of 1,002 hectares, including Hoang Long Insutrial Zone; The South City Industrial Zone, Ngoc Lac Industrial Zone, Thach Quang Industrial Zone and Bai Tranh Industrial Zone In the coming time, the demand for skilled laborers for the economic zones of the province's industrial zones will be huge By 2020, the demand for laborers for industrial zones is expected to be 265,000, of which the university and college graduates are 75,000 people, junior and technical laborers 190,000 people Employment demand is so great, so for young agricultural laborers, this is an opportunity for agricultural laborers to change jobs in the best way - Employment demand for laborers in the field of trade - services: Employment demand in the area of trade and services by 2020 is about 669.7 thousand jobs mainly by expansion of retail and selfemployment activities, partly by the human resource demand for centers, trade, service enterprises According to statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, employment demand of qualified laborers for trade and transport will account for 47.065%, while unskilled laborers will account for 53% This is a relatively high demand for labor force, while most of the province's laborers live in rural areas with low levels of education, communication, trade and accounting skills are weak and very weak However, as analyzed above, with the incomes which is many times higher than that of agricultural manufacturing, this is a good opportunity for agricultural laborers to shift to trade, transport Table 3.10 Demand for labor in some key economic establishments of Thanh Hoa Province by 2020 Laborers Unskilled Labor demand Total with laborers qualifications Large industrial zones - Construction of works 265.000 198.750 66.250 Transportation and trade 669.700 315.200 354.500 Agriculture forestry fishery 676.400 145.238 531.162 Source: Thanh Hoa People's Committee, year 2016 15 - Employment demand in agriculture sector: With the development and clear policies for the industry, Thanh Hoa currently has many large projects under development and resources for development investment, the direction for industrial development and services of Thanh Hoa Province has been planned in details However, Thanh Hoa agriculture is completely opposite Agriculture of Thanh Hoa Province is facing many difficulties and constraints, such as: unsustainable development, area and scale of production are still fragmented, small and many areas have not been exploited effectively, not created large commodity products with high productivity, quality, value and competitiveness; The income of farmers is still low With a province where 2.4/3.5 million people work in agriculture and live in rural areas, this is a very serious problem - Labor demand in surveyed facilities: For employment demand at the surveyed facilities, the results show that the current demand for employment in enterprises is very high, accompanied by the demand for labor qualification At the same time, the demand for unskilled and labor for farms, although lower, is more readily accepted by shifted agricultural laborers In the construction and transportation enterprises, the labor force can be recruited from the agricultural laborers, average of construction enterprises at about 15.2 persons per unit and average of 4.1 persons per goods transport enterprises However, the number of laborers required to be qualified, trained up to 11.2 people for construction enterprises and 4.1 persons for transport enterprises It can be seen that the vast majority of demand for industrial and service enterprises is qualified laborers, which is one of the major challenges faced by agricultural laborers in shifting to other occupations Table 3.11 Employment demand for agricultural laborers converted in some survey facilities Average Average Average Labor demand Quantity labor laborers with unskilled demand qualifications laborers Construction enterprises 15,2 11,2 Agriculture – Forestry – 20,3 10,6 9,7 Fishery enterprises Goods transport 5,6 4,1 1,5 enterprise Food service facilities 10 4,1 4,1 Farms 20 6,6 1,5 5,1 Source: Data investigated by the Ph.D Candidate, 2017 Considering of Employment demand should address the quality requirements for employers Survey results show that the first requirement for laborers is physical strength and working discipline Most entities suppose that without physical strength and especially disciplinary nature, a laborer can not guarantee the development of the employees Meanwhile, many enterprises said that the laborers from the rural areas recruited often have 16 the habit of working arbitrarily, thus greatly affecting the production activities 3.2.3 Situation of agricultural employment demand Besides the size of the population, agricultural labor supply depends on the rate of population growth and birth rate Labor force in the economy is constantly changing, added every year so that in order to ensure effective economic development, it is necessary to ensure fertility to have abundant labor force be the requirements of development Table 3.12 Rate of trained labor supply Thanh Hoa Province 2013 - 2017 Calculation unit: thousand people Year Total Male Female Urban Rural 2013 17,3 19,8 14,6 40,5 14,8 2014 17,8 20,0 15,1 42,6 15,2 2015 18,9 21,2 17,1 43,8 16,4 2016 20,7 23,5 18,0 55,0 17,9 2017 21,4 25,8 18,2 55,8 18,3 Source: Thanh Hoa Statistical Office In addition, considering of the agricultural labor supply needs to consider supply by age group and sex Table 3.13 shows the agricultural labor supply by age group and genders It can be seen that there is a difference in the number of agricultural laborers between age groups and genders between different age thresholds In the four age thresholds of agricultural laborers aged 15-60 years, agricultural laborers are concentrated in the middle ages from 40 to 60 years old, most of them are households with land and they work in agriculture for their main earnings In addition, this is also the labor force with low job elasticity, they have less opportunity to change jobs than other working ages The second largest number of laborers is between 15 and 30 years old This is a class of young agricultural laborers, mainly working for the family or just finished the study at school so the number is relatively large However, this is a highly dynamic, well-adapted, and well occupational change capacity class Table 3.13 Agricultural labor demand in Thanh Hoa Province, classified as per the age groups and genders 2017 Calculation unit: 1000 people Content Total Male Female 15-30 298,89 135,22 163,67 30-40 242,69 68,68 174,01 40-60 461,50 257,93 203,57 Trên 60 91,30 55,59 35,71 Total 1.094,38 517,42 576,96 Source: Thanh Hoa Statistical Office 17 3.2.4 Balance on labor market 3.2.4.1 Unemployment and underemployment of agricultural work Up to 2013, the overall unemployment rate of the province tends to decrease slightly, but in urban areas, it increased In contrast, the unemployment rate for rural laborers has fallen from 1.82% in 2013 to 1.51% in 2017) Table 3.14 Unemployment rate of rural and urban labor through years Calculation unit: % Explanation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total 2,12 2,14 2,12 2,00 1,97 Male 2,14 2,12 2,12 1,89 1,83 Female Urban Rural 1,93 5,00 1,82 2,15 5,06 1,83 2,12 5,08 1,84 2,11 5,10 1,57 2,16 5,13 1,51 Source: Thanh Hoa Statistical Office 3.2.4.2 Assessing the stability and accessibility to new jobs of agricultural laborers - Stability of agricultural laborers: The stability of the new employment for transitional agricultural laborers is an important criterion for assessing the sustainability of agricultural labor shift The interview results show that the rate of households choosing agricultural production is relatively unstable Many laborers said that low income and devalued bumper crop, regular natural disasters make production often lost, while the relative stability is very low Table 3.15 Evaluation of employment stability of agricultural laborers in Thanh Hoa Province Indicators Total households Households with agricultural laborers Very stable Stable Relatively stable Unstable Households with transitional laborers Employment satisfaction Income Thanh Hoa City Tinh Gia District Tho Xuan District Quantity Ratio Quantity Ratio Quantity Ratio (household) (%) (household) (%) (household) (%) 30 100,00 30 100,00 30 100,00 26,67 10 33,33 21 70,00 6,67 20,00 10,00 23,33 10 3,33 30,00 33,33 6,67 13,33 23,33 2 6,67 6,67 6,67 13,33 13,33 23,33 Source: Data investigated by the Ph.D candidate 2017 - The accessibility to the new employment by the agricultural laborers: Table 3.16 shows the difficulties encountered by the agricultural laborers when shifting to other works 18 Table 3.16 Difficulties to agricultural laborers when shifting to other jobs Contents New agricultural jobs Shortage of training programs Shortage of manufacturing funding Shortage of laborers Shortage of land 2.Industry Shortage of training programs Shortage of manufacturing funding Shortage of laborers Shortage of land Not methodically Trade-services Shortage of training programs Shortage of manufacturing funding Shortage of laborers Shortage of land Shortage of qualification Thanh Hoa City Tinh Gia District SL CC (%) Tho Xuan District SL CC (%) SL CC (%) 16,67 14 46,67 23 76,67 19 63,33 24 80,00 30 100,00 18 6,67 60,00 27 0,00 90,00 28 0,00 93,33 22 73,33 25 83,33 26 86,67 22 73,33 29 96,67 30 100,00 30 13,33 10,00 100,00 26 6,67 3,33 86,67 25 26,67 13,33 83,33 12 40,00 23,33 10 33,33 27 90,00 29 96,67 30 100,00 10 33,33 20,00 16,67 6,67 0,00 0,00 30,00 10,00 30,00 Source: Data investigated by the Ph.D candidate 2017 3.3 Assessment of the situation of employment solution for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province 3.3.1 Achievements - Vocational training for agricultural laborers has been paid attention, the quality of agricultural labor supply has improved; - Promote the role of subjects involved in the job creation for agricultural laborers; - Encourage many enterprises to invest in agriculture, employment solution for agricultural laborers; - Some local policies employment solution for agricultural labor in the process of urbanization has promoted effectiveness 3.3.2 Limitations - Vocational training is not effective; - Employment demand for agricultural laborers has not been expanded; - The market of agricultural products is not stable; - Rural labor restructuring in Thanh Hoa is still slow; - The low quality of agriculture in Thanh Hoa Province; 19 - The policy of attracting investment is not strong enough; 3.3.3 Causes 3.3.3.1 Group of factors in the quality of agricultural labor supply 1) Personal factor of laborers Table 3.17 Some demographic characteristics of transitional labor Thanh Hoa city Tinh Gia District Tho Xuan District Indicators Explanation Educational factors Number of high school graduates Number of laborers graduated from university Number of laborers who have been trained in agriculture Number of laborers who have been trained in handicraft Number of laborers who have been trained in industry – construction Number of laborers who have vocational certificate Age factors Number of laborers from 15 – 30 Number of laborers is from 30 to 40 Number of laborers is from 40 to 60 Number of laborers is 60 or older Gender Male laborers Female laborers Transitional Non transitional Transitional 4 13 13 17 17 11 14 1 0 0 0 3 4 13 13 17 17 6 10 0 Non Non Transitional transitional transitional 13 13 17 17 10 7 Source: Data investigated by the Ph.D candidate 2017 2) Household factors In addition to the factors directly related to laborers, the household factor also influences the decision to shift labor The first is the land fund of the household Land is an indispensable resource associated with agricultural production of the household 20 Table 3.18 Changes of land and laborer structure at the research locations Thanh Hoa city Indicators Land revoked Agriculture land Forestry land Fishery land Calculation unit m2 Tinh Gia District Tho Xuan District Households Households Households Households Households Households with without with without with without transitional transitional transitional transitional transitional transitional laborers laborers laborers laborers laborers laborers 356,98 98,43 295,18 155,33 1028,1 203,97 m2 m2 m2 356,98 98,43 295,18 155,33 185,43 76,43 0 0 842,67 127,54 0 0 0 Source: Data investigated by the Ph.D candidate 2017 3.3.3.2 Nhóm nhân tố thuộc Employment demand cho lao động nông nghiệp The group of employment demand factor for agricultural laborers 1) Economic development and expansion of economic organizations The important factor affecting the shift of agricultural labor is the economic development and the expansion of economic organizations in all fields The theory of labor shifting shows that labor shifting is appropriate for developing countries, including Vietnam and Thanh Hoa Province in particular, is to develop industry and services to gradually reduce agricultural labor Extending the focus of specialized agricultural production, diversifying and diversifying the types of enterprises operating in all sectors will contribute to the creation of more jobs, thereby attracting more agricultural laborers, especially true for young laborers who are abundant now 2) Wages, incomes Table 3.19 Average income of laborer and regimes for laborers of various types of economy Types Calculation Value unit Construction enterprises - Wages Million/month - Total annual bonus Million dong Agriculture-forestry-fishery enterprises - Wages Million/month - Total annual bonus Million dong Goods transportation enterprises - Wages Million/month - Total annual bonus Million dong Compared to the income of the farming households 5,2 3,5 3,7 3,5 2,9 2,1 1,4 2,1 4,9 3,1 3,4 3,1 21 Food service facilities - Wages - Total annual bonus Agricultural farms - Wages - Total annual bonus Farming households - Wages - Total annual bonus Million/month Million dong 3,4 1,7 1,9 1,7 Million/month Million dong 2,2 0,7 Million/month 1,5 Million dong Source: Data investigated by the Ph.D candidate 2017 3.3.3.3 Factor group of policies In addition to policies directly related to the shift of agricultural labor, Thanh Hoa Province also has some incentives to restructure agriculture through Decision No.151/2015/QD/UBND which is an important ground to restructure the agricultural sector of the province in general and the rural labor force in particular until 2020 This includes: supporting intensive rice production in mountainous areas; support for concentrated vegetable production; support the intensive farming and support large scale production Chapter EMPLOYMENT SOLUTIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL LABORERS IN THE URGANIZATION PROCESS IN THANH HOA PROVINCE 4.1 The goal of socio-economic development, accelerating industrialization modernization - urbanization of Thanh Hoa Province to the year 2025 4.1.1 Socio-economic background of Thanh Hoa Province 4.1.2 Urban development and forecast of labor demand and employment of Thanh Hoa Province to year 2030 4.1.2.1 Urban development Table 4.1 Rate of urbanization of Thanh Hoa Province to 2030 Provincial population Chỉ tiêu thị hóa Growth Population Period closing Urbanization Urbanization No Indicators growth population speed ratio (%) speed forecast (% năm) (%) 2006 - 2010 0,68 3.406.000 0,13 10,4 2010 - 2014 11,4 0,65 3.496.081 1,36 17,2 2015 - 2020 13,8 0,65 3.634.000 2,97 35,0 2021 - 2025 9,0 ÷ 10,0 0,71 3.765.000 1,20 45,0 2026 - 2030 8,0 ÷ 9,0 0,71 3.900.000 1,80 50,0 Source: Thanh Hoa People's Committee, 2016 22 4.1.2.2 Forecast of labor demand and employment in Thanh Hoa Province by 2020 Table 4.2 Indicators on forecasts on labor - employment in Thanh Hoa Province Period 2018-2020 Calculation No Indicators 2018 2019 2020 unit Population Thousand 3.587 3.611 3.634,2 people Population in working age Thousand 2.412 2.429 2.446,0 people Laborers aged 15 and above are Thousand working in the economy 2.240 2.260 2.280 people Classified by economic sector - Agriculture, forestry and fisheries Thousand 896 848 798 people Ratio % 40 37,5 35 - Industry and construction Thousand 717 757 798 people Ratio % 32 33,5 35 - Service Thousand 627 655 684 people Ratio % 28 29 30 Unemployment rate in urban areas % 3,3 3,2 3,1 Unemployment rate in rural areas % 6,3 6,2 6,1 Number of laborers is employment Person 66.000 67.000 67.500 solution in the year Of which: Labor export Person 10.000 10.000 10.000 To raise the rate of laborers seeking jobs through the employment service % 25 28 30 center system Rate of trained laborers % 64 67 70 Source: Thanh Hoa People's Committee, 2017 4.1.3 SWOT analysis for employment solution for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province From the analysis of the situation and the factors affecting the creation of jobs for agricultural laborers in the context of new development of the world, the country, we can draw advantages, difficulties, opportunities and challenges (SWOT) for employment solutions for agricultural laborers in Thanh Hoa Province in the coming time 4.2 Some orientations employment solution for agricultural laborers in urbanization in Thanh Hoa Province until 2025, vision 2030 4.2.1 Employment solution for agricultural labor must be associated with economic restructuring 23 4.2.2 Employment solution for agricultural labor associated with urban development and new rural construction 4.2.3 Employment solution is associated with mobilizing resources for investment in rural agriculture 4.2.4 Employment solution for agricultural labor on the basis of labor market development 4.2.5 Employment solution for agricultural laborers must ensure to maintain political stability, social order and safety 4.3 Some major solutions for agro-industrial laborers in the process of urbanization in Thanh Hoa Province 4.3.1 Employment demand extension solutions for agricultural laborers 4.3.1.1 Continue to accelerate the restructuring of agricultural economy along the direction of industrialization and modernization associated with the shifting of agricultural labor structure 4.3.1.2 Restore and develop handicraft industries, traditional craft, new craft villages 4.3.1.3 Develop the private economy according to the types of small and medium enterprises in order to create more jobs for agricultural laborers according to the requirements of industrialization and urbanization 4.3.1.4 Develop services, trade and tourism in the direction of industrialization and modernization 4.3.1.5 Improve the competitiveness of products, develop the market consumption products to ensure a stable employment for agricultural laborers in the process of industrialization - urbanization 4.3.1.6 Promote agricultural laborers to work abroad 4.3.2 Solution group that affect the agricultural labor demand 4.3.2.1 Improve the quality of implementation of the population and family planning policy in order to raise the quality of human resources and employment solution for agricultural laborers 4.3.2.2 Improve the quality of agricultural human resource training to meet the requirements of industrialization and urbanization 4.3.3 Solution groups to improve the policy mechanism and enhance the role of employment solution political system for agricultural laborers 4.3.3.1 Improve the investment environment, develop industry and services to attract agricultural labor 4.3.3.2 Integrate employment solution program for agricultural laborers with project implementation 4.3.3.3 Perfect mechanisms and policies for management of the national fund for employment solution for agricultural laborers 4.3.4 Financial solutions to ensure the agricultural labor in the process of urbanization 24 CONCLUSION The thesis title Job solutions for the agricultural laborers in the urbanization progress in Thanh Hoa Province has addressed the following affairs: Has given an overview of research related to employment, employment solution, policy and labor market in the context of urbanization of some authors at home and abroad The thesis shows that there are many domestic and foreign studies on labor, employment and employment solution However, there has been no research on employment solution for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province The thesis has studied the rationale for labor, agricultural labor, urbanization, employment, employment solution for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization, the content of agrarian labor in the approach supply - demand, as well as analysis of the factors affecting employment solution Based on the experience of employment solution for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization in some countries in the world and in some localities in Vietnam, the thesis has drawn lessons for Thanh Hoa Province From there, construct the theoretical framework for employment solution analysis for labor in the urbanization process Based on the surveys conducted in three districts and city (Tinh Gia District, Tho Xuan District, Thanh Hoa city), the thesis clearly shows that besides the successes, employment solution for agricultural laborers in Thanh Hoa Province still has its own limitations: The number of laborers losing their jobs due to urbanization tends to increase, job creation for agricultural laborers is not really sustainable, labor market of Thanh Hoa Province is not really flexible… From this, the thesis has shown the factors that affect employment solution to the agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization of Thanh Hoa Province such as: Factor group of labor supply; factor group of labor demand; factor group of mechanism, policies The thesis has set out orientations for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization in Thanh Hoa Province in order to: employment solution for agricultural labor must be associated with economic restructuring; employment solution for agricultural laborers associated with urban development and new rural construction; employment solution is associated with the mobilization of resources for investment in agricultural and rural development; employment solution for agricultural labor on the basis of labor market development; employment solution for agricultural laborers must ensure to maintain political stability, social order and safety Based on the analysis of the situation, based on the employment demand forecast and the orientation of employment solution for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process, the thesis presents four groups of employment solutions for agricultural laborers in the process of urbanization in Thanh Hoa province: The solution group on extending the employment demand for agricultural laborers; Group of solutions for improving the quality of agricultural labor supply; Group of solutions for improving the policy mechanism and enhancing the role of employment solution political system for agricultural laborers; Group of solutions on financial to ensure employment solution for agricultural laborers 25 LIST OF WORKS PUBLISHED Do Minh Tuan (2017), employment solution improve income for rural labor in the process of industrialization and modernization in Thanh Hoa, Journal of Economics and Management, National Political Academy, year 2017 Do Minh Tuan (2017), Thanh Hoa develops jobs for rural agriculture in the process of industrialization - urbanization, Communist Review, 2017 Do Minh Tuan (2017), Factors affecting employment solution for agricultural laborers in Thanh Hoa Province during urbanization, Asia Pacific Economic Journal, May 2018 26 The work is accomplished at University of Trade and Technology Supervisors: Prof.Ph.D Dinh Van Tien Opponent 1: Associate Prof.Science Ph.D Nguyen Viet Vuong Opponent 2: Associate Prof.Science Ph.D Nguyen Van Dan Opponent 3: Associate Prof.Science Ph.D Nguyen Tiep The thesis is defended at the Thesis Marking Council and the Univesity Level, meeting at University of Business and Technology At .hour on date month year 2018 The thesis can be learnt at: - National liabrary - Library of Hanoi University of Business and Technology ... solution for agricultural laborers in the urbanization process in Thanh Hoa Province From the analysis of the situation and the factors affecting the creation of jobs for agricultural laborers in the. .. Financial solutions to ensure the agricultural labor in the process of urbanization 24 CONCLUSION The thesis title Job solutions for the agricultural laborers in the urbanization progress in Thanh Hoa. .. title: “Employment solutions for the agricultural laborers in the urbanization progres in Thanh Hoa Province , as the title of Economics Doctoral Thesis, major of Business Administration Research