The long wave in the world economy The long wave in the world economy The present crisis in historical perspective Andrew Tylecote First published 1992 by Routledge Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge a division of Routledge, Taylor & Francis 270 Madison Ave, New York NY 10016 Reprinted 2001 Transferred to Digital Printing 2006 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group © 1992 Andrew Tylecote All rights reserved No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Tylecote, Andrew, 1946– The long wave in the world economy: the present crisis in historical perspective Economics Theories I Title 338.54 ISBN 0-415-03690-9 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for To Marian Contents List of figures List of tables Preface and Acknowledgements Introduction Part I Theory The long wave debate Technological styles Integration, disintegration and crisis Monetary feedback Population feedback Inequality feedback (1) In the North Inequality feedback (2) International and in the South Part II History 10 11 12 Introduction: A résumé of the theoretical argument A historical account, 1780−1850 A historical account, 1850−1896 A historical account, 1896−1945 A historical account, from 1945 to the present The way to the next upswing Notes Bibliography Index List of figures 1.1 Kondratiev’s index numbers of wholesale prices 1.2 World economic growth – a long wave pattern? Juglar growth rates in industrial production 1.3 (a) Twentieth-century inflation: consumer prices in the USA and UK (b) Twentieth-century inflation: consumer prices in France and Germany 1.4 The Perez model 1.5 Differentiated Perez model, early nineteenth century 1.6 Differentiated Perez model, early twentieth century 1.7 Feedback loops for a regular long wave 1.8 ‘Counter-cyclical’ feedback loops 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Principal navigable rivers in England, c 1760 The English waterway system, 1789 Pig iron production in England, 1740–1839 Raw cotton used in the British textile industry during the eighteenth century Fordist organisation of factory production Sales of US CAD turnkey vendors – past and projected Baker’s significant patents, 1775–1965 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 British wholesale prices, 1796–1965 French wholesale prices, 1820–1913 US wholesale prices, 1800–1914 (a) UK prices, 1800–1913, agriculture and industry (b) UK prices, 1800–1913, industrial/agricultural price ratio 4.5 World output of gold and silver, 1800–1950 4.6 British and French bond prices 1820–1920 4.7 US interest rates, 1873–1988, nominal rates, long- and short-term 5.1 (a) Fertility fluctuations, 1932–89, Canada, England and Wales, and West Germany (b) Fertility fluctuations, 1932–89, Sweden, France and Australia 5.2 Fertility in the USA, 1820–1980 5.3 (a) US immigration, 1822–70 (b) US immigration, 1870–1920 (c) US immigration, 1920–70 5.4 Emigration from Europe, 1815–1908 5.5 European natural increase and emigration, 1820–1910 6.1 Changes in income distribution in the USA, 1866–1970 6.2 Changes in UK income distribution since 1938 6.3 (a) Unionisation in the twentieth century: UK, Australia and the USA (b) Unionisation in the twentieth century: Germany, Sweden and Norway (c) Unionisation in the twentieth century: Denmark, Canada and the Netherlands (d) Unionisation in the twentieth century: Switzerland, Finland, France and Japan 6.4 Profit shares in the USA and UK, 1920–84 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 Share of manufactures in developing countries’ exports to the North Net barter terms of trade of developing countries, 1897–1986 Developing countries’ employment-corrected double factorial terms of trade Developing countries’ net arms imports, as % of GNP Legal immigration into the USA of skilled workers, 1950–84 US real interest rates, 1873–1989 Relative income shares in non-primary industries in Japan 1900–70 8.1 A résumé of the theory 8.2 US GNP, 1791–1850, with rainfall peaks and troughs 9.1 US GNP, 1850–1910, with rainfall peaks and troughs 10.1 US GNP, 1890–1950, with rainfall peaks and troughs 11.1 US GNP, 1945–89 List of tables 1.1 Currie’s rainfall cycle, USA, 1830–1936 1.2 Growth rates of industrial production in van Duijn’s long wave upswings and downswings 2.1 Horse-drawn loads on land and water 2.2 Sectoral growth rates of real output in British industry, 1700–1831 2.3 Estimates of growth in British industry and commerce, 1700–1831 5.1 A5.1 A5.2 A5.3 A5.4 Eastern Europe: natural increase and emigration, 1861–1915 Actual and predicted ratio of workers to retirees in the US population, 1960–2055 Ratio of workers to retirees in the West German population, 1975–2030 Ratio of working population to pensioners in Great Britain, 1951–2032 Japan: Population ageing in the KNH, 1976–2025 6.1 Changes in income distribution in Europe to the late 1950s 6.2 Profit movements in Western industry, 1955–72 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 Trends in skilled migration from the developing countries to the United States of America, Canada and the United Kingdom, 1961–76 Skill flows in relation to domestic stock of skilled manpower: sample estimates for a selected number of developing and developed countries Debt indicators for developing countries in selected years, 1970–84 United Kingdom investments in Latin America, 1913, 1930, 1938 and 1951 United States private long-term investments abroad, 1914–50 Distribution of income among households in Africa, Asia and Latin America (Gini coefficients) Growth of US GNP, 1789–1852, in rainfall upswings and downswings Juglar growth rates of industrial production, Great Britain and France, 1782–1857 British industrial output growth, 1700–1831 Railway building in the early industrialisers, 1830–50 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 Growth rates of world industrial production, 1850–1913 Growth rates of British and French industrial production, 1845–1913 Growth rates of British gross domestic product, 1845–1913 Growth rates of US gross domestic product, 1873–1912 Growth rates of German net domestic product, 1857–1913 Economic growth rates of ‘old’ and ‘new’ industrialisers, 1870s–1913 Growth rates of world industrial production, 1892–1951 Growth of French gross domestic product, 1892–1950 Growth of US gross domestic product, 1892–1951 Growth of German gross domestic product, 1884–1952 Growth of British gross domestic product, 1889–1951 Growth of output of ‘old’ and ‘new’ products in the major economies, c 1878–1913 Numbers of ‘major’ innovations by country and decade, 1810–1970 Rates of growth of gross domestic product in France, Germany, UK, USA and Japan, 1937— 89 Net household saving as a percentage of disposable household income, major Western 11.2 countries, 1973–89 11.3 Current balances as a percentage of GNP/GDP, major Western countries, 1972–89 11.1 Habakkuk, H J (1962) American and British Technology in the 19th Century, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Hadfield, C (1974) British Canals, Newton Abbot: David & Charles Hannah, Leslie (1986) Inventing Retirement: the development of occupational pensions in Britain, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Hemming, Richard and Kay, John A (1982) ‘Great Britain’, pp 29–46 in Rosa, J J (ed.) 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profit movements in 137; unionisation 132 Austria 219 Ayres, R U 55, 594 Baker, James 267 Baker, Kenneth 70 Baldwin, Stanley 77 Bardeen, 56 Belgium: economic growth 219; railway building (1830–1850) 202 Bell, Alexander Graham 50 Benin 169 Berend, T 177 Berg, Maxine 44, 45 Bessemer, Henry 49 biotechnology technological style 60–61 Bismarck, Otto von 213–214, 220, 228, 230, 232, 245 Bolte, K M 249 Boserup, Ester 110 Boyer, R 18, 61 Brazil 164, 169, 259; ecological crisis in 277 Brezhnev, Leonid 269 Brummer, Alex 178 Bruning, Heinrich 244 building cycles 8–9 Bush, George 77 Butler, R A 74 Cameron, Rondo 218 Canada: fertility fluctuations in 102; funded pensions and savings 117; long waves (1872–92) 224; migration, skilled, trends in 160; migration to 108; profit movements in 137; unionisation 133 canals in Great Britain 37–40 capital: and economic integration 77–79; as factor in North-South relationship 158; flight of 178–179; and microelectronics technology 290 Cardenas, Lázaro 162 Cardoso, E A 162 Carnegie, Andrew 64–65 carrier branches of the economy 36; in Fordist technological style 53 cartels: in Germany (after 1900) 229 see also mergers Castellino, O 117 Chad 169 Chamberlain, Neville 246 children: role in social integration 81–82 Chile 164, 169 China: ecological crisis in 277–278; international reintegration 253 Chirac, Jacques 77 Churchill, W S 247 Clark, J 66, 69, 70 co-ordination, machine intelligence in 56–57 Cole, W A 45 Coleridge, Samuel Taylor 196 Colombia 169 Columbus, Christopher 24 communications and microelectronics technology 290 computer-aided design (CAD) 57–58 Congo 169 consumer prices and inflation 14 Cooke William F 48 Coolidge, Calvin 77 Coombs, R W 54 Corn Laws (Great Britain) 85 Cort, Henry 43 Costa Rica 169 cotton consumption (Great Britain, 1700–1800) 45 counter-cyclical feedback: monetary 96, 185; population 113–114, 186; in retrospect 274 countries: links between in cycles Cowling, Keith 139 Crafts, N F R 45, 190 Crimean War 88 crisis: depression as 79, 184; depression of 1980s 260–266; European, and world boom (1850–72) 212–214; family breakdown as 82–83; first: Great Britain 194–200; in international integration 73; and new style (1896—1921) 227–232; in political integration 74–75, 77; and slump (1929–33) 242–243; in technical change 20–24, see also ecological crisis crisis of downswing: causes (1970s) 260; in Perez’ model 20–21, 23–24 crisis of upswing: economic cycles in North (1960–70s) 257; 1896–1921 221–236; and oil price shocks 258–260; outcome in North (1960–70s) 263–266; in Perez – model 20–21, 23–24; politics in North (1960–70s) 256–257; results of (1896–1921) 227–232; in South (1960–70s) 258–260; in technical change 20–22; World War I as 276 Crouzet, F 194, 203 Cuba 164 Cuddington, John T 178 Currie, Robert 108, 190, 201; rainfall cycle of 8–9, 188, 201, 218, 222 cycles: economic 7–9; Kondratiev 9–13; links between 9; political leadership 24–27; price see price cycles; stockbuilding 9, see also history of cycles; long waves Da Gama, Vasco 24 Deane, Phyllis 45 debt of South: indicators for 161; to North 177–179 deconcentration of world power leadership 25 deference and microelectronics technology 289 Deger, S 159 delegitimation of world power leadership 25 demographic efect on savings 114–121 Denmark: gross domestic product, growth of (1870s–1913) 219; income distribution 125; unionisation 133 depression: causes (1980s) 260–266; as crisis in technical change 20–22, 184; and cycles in inequality 129; recovery of 1980s in North 266–268, see also Great Depression design: machine intelligence in 57 Developed countries see North Developing countries see South diffusion: and mismatch in technical styles 20; science, use of in 63–67 disintegration: and economic reintegration 288–289; and pay differentials 143; and taxation 80 divorce and social integration 82–83 Donne, John 276 downswings 11–12; crisis of see crisis of downswing; 1873, causes 214–216; and feedback loops 27–28; in Perez’ model 20–21, 23–24; in population growth 104; 1970s, causes 260, see also depression; Great Depression D’Souza, V G 103 Duijn, J J van 8, 11–13, 207–208, 219, 228 Dunning, J H 178 Easterlin, R A 29, 30, 103 ecological crisis and North-South relationship 276–282; causes of 278–279; reform strategy for 288 economic cycles 7–9; crisis and upswing in North (1960–70s) 257 economic growth: after French revolution 199–200; and migration 105–109; and population 110–114 economic integration 77–80 economic reintegration 288–289 Ecuador 169 Edison, Thomas 50, 65 education: reform of 284; and science 63 Ehrenreich, Barbara 82 Eisenhower, D D 254 El Salvador 169 electricity: diffusion of (1896–1921) 225–227; as technological style 50–51 Eliot, T S 272 emigration see migration employment: full in long boom 134; restoring 283–284 employment-corrected double factorial terms of trade (ECDFTT) 155–156, 173, 176; and Great Depression 238–239 endogenous cycles 7, 9; and feedback loops in 28, 184 equality: and integration in Great Britain 191–193; in Japan 170–172; and long waves 129–130, see also levelling; inequality Europe: Eastern: natural increase and emigration 112; income distribution, changes 125; migration from 107; and world boom (1850–72) 212–214 exogenous cycles 7–8 family: and divorce 82–83; in social integration 81–83 Faraday, Michael 50 feedback inequalities in North 122–145 feedback loops in long waves 27–33, 184–185; monetary 29, 84–100, 185; and population 29–30, 101–121, 185–186 fertility: fluctuations in 102, 104; and population 102–104 Finland 133 Fisher, I and effect 95 flexible manufacturing systems 59 Ford, Henry 40, 53, 62, 90; and Fordism 18–19 Fordist technological style 53–55; effects of 235–236; exhaustion of 254; inappropriateness in South 258; limits of 54–55; organisation of factory production 55; and price changes 90; separation of spheres in 54; transition to 51–53 Fourneyron, Benoit 46 Fox, Charles James 198 France 25, 49; current balances and gross domestic product 268; economic growth after French Revolution 199–200; fertility fluctuations in 102; and French Revolution 195–199; GNP, growth of (1892–1950) 223; gross domestic product, growth of 219, 223, 255; industrial production 190, 208, 226; long waves (1872–92) 221–222, 228; net savings in 268; in post war period (from 1945) 249–250; profit movements in 137; railway building (1830–1850) 202; unionisation 133; wholesale prices 86 Freeman, C 15–16, 18–19, 66, 69, 70 Freeman, Richard 78 French Revolution: economic growth after 199–200; and first crisis in Great Britain 195–199 Fricke, Ernst 64–65 Friedman, Milton 94, 99, 162 funded pensions and savings 116–118 Gabon 169 Gaitskell, Hugh 74 Galvao, Claudia 162 de Gaulle, Charles 249 Gauss, Johann 48 Gelderen, J van 10, 11, 13, 31 Germany 25, 26, 49; chemistry, innovation in 64; current balances and gross domestic product 268; fertility fluctuations in 102; funded pensions and savings 117, 119; gross domestic product, growth 219, 224, 255; income distribution 125; industrial production, growth 226; integration, lack of 232; levelling in after 1945 249–250; and long waves (1872–92) 228–232; migration from 110; money multiplier model in 98; net savings in 268; profit movements in 137; railway building (1830–1850) 202; unionisation 132; workers to retirees ratio 120; and world boom (1850–72) 213–214, 215: and World War I 230–231, 233; and World War II 244–246 Gilchrist, Percy 49, 216 Gini coefficient of inequality 165–166, 168, 170 Gladstone, William 220 global warming 278, 280 gold: discoveries 91–92; and long waves (1872–92) 225; output (1800–1950) 92 Goldstein, J S 25 Gorbachev, Michail 269, 288 Gramme, Zénobe 50 Great Britain: cotton consumption (1700–1800) 45; current balances and gross domestic product 268; fertility fluctuations in 102; first crisis (1780–1830) 194–200; French Revolution and first crisis 195–199; gross domestic product, growth 210, 219, 224, 255; income distribution 125, 127; industrial output, growth 44–45, 190; industrial production 190, 208, 226; integration and equality in 191–193; and international integration 73; investment in Latin America 164; levelling in after 1945 250; long waves in 10, 222–223, 227–228; and migration 113; migration, skilled, trends in 160; money multiplier model in 99–100; net savings in 268; pig iron production (1740–1839) 43; and political integration 75–76; prices by sector 87; profit movements in 137, 138–139; protectionism in 85; railways in 46–48, 202; second crisis (1830–1850) 200–206; steam transport in 46–47; steel industry in 49; unionisation 132; waterway system (1760–89) 39, 41; wholesale prices 85; workers to retirees ratio 120; as world power 25, 26; and World War 1233–4; and World War II 243 Great Depression (1873–96) 214–220; downswing, causes of 214–216; and recovery 216–220 Great Depression (1930s): and crash (1929) 239–242; determinants of 236–242; and migration from Europe 236; and money multiplier and money supply after 1914 98; and political integration 76–77; and slump (1929–33) 239–242; and World War II 242–247 Greenough, William 117, 118 gross domestic product: current balances in western countries 268; France 219, 223, 255; Germany 219, 255; Great Britain 210, 255; growth of in old and new industrial countries 219; Japan 255; and rainfall cycle, United States 222; United States 217, 223, 255 gross national product: United States (1789–1852) 190, 201 growth: effect of inequality on 140–144; and inequality before 1900 144–145; and inequality in South 163–170; and inequality in 20th century 144–146 Habakkuk, H J 143, 192 Hadfield, C 41 Hannah, Leslie 117 Heath, Edward 76 Hemming, Richard 117, 120 Henderson, W O 197 Henry, Joseph 48 high technology bias (HTB) in developing countries 151–152 Hill, Martha 130 Hill, T 251 Hindenberg, Paul von 244 history of cycles: 1780–1850 189–206; 1850–1896 207–220; 1896–1945 221–247; 1945- 248–271 Hitler, Adolf 242, 244–247 Hoffman August 64 Hollweg, Bethmann 231 Honduras 169 Hong Kong 166, 169, 259 Hoover, Herbert C 77 Hopkins, Gerard Manley 214 Huntsman, Benjamin 43 immigration see migration income: distribution, changes in 125–127; distribution among households in developing countries 169; effect on inequality 142; and pay differentials 142–144; relative shares in Japan 171 India 161, 169 industrial output, growth: Great Britain 190 industrial production: 1850–1913 208; 1878–1913 226; 1892–1951 223; France 190; Great Britain 190; growth in 12 inequality: changes in effect of 145–146; concept of 122–123; cycles in 124–130; and ecological crisis 277; effect on growth 140–144; feedback in North 122–145; and growth before 1900 144–145; and growth in South 163–170; income, effect on 142; inevitability of 165–170; internal in long waves 32–33; international in long waves see international inequalities; and levelling after 1945 248–250; long waves, effect of on 124–140; reduced in USA 254; reducing 284–288; in retrospect 272; sources 123–124; trends in 124–130; in 20th century 144–146 inertia: and cycles in inequality 128; in socio-political mismatch 71 inflation: consumer prices 14; and nominal interest rates before 1914 94; and war 84–85, 89 innovation: in chemistry 64; and long waves 15–16; numbers of (1810–1970) 228; and price reductions 88–89; science, use of in 63–67; and technological style 36–37 integration: economic 77–80; and equality in Great Britain 191–193; Germany: lack of 232; idea of 71–72; international 72–73; political 73–77; social 81–83 interest rates 77, 84; as factor in North – South relationship 158; and Great Depression 237; and money supply after 1914 96; United States (1873–1988) 94 see also nominal interest rates; real interest rates internal inequalities in long waves 32–33 international inequalities in long waves 30–32; military factors in 149–153; in North 122–145; in South 153–155; in world economy 147–153 international integration 72–73 international reintegration 252–255 inventory cycles 7–8 investment: cycles 8; and depression crisis of 1980s 264; Great Britain in Latin America 164; United States abroad 165 Iran 161, 169 Italy: current balances and gross domestic product 268; funded pensions and savings 117; gross domestic product, growth of (1870s– 1913) 219; net savings in 268; profit movements in 137 Ivory Coast 169 Janssen, Martin 118 Japan: current balances and gross domestic product 268; equality in 170–172; funded pensions and savings 117; gross domestic product 255; levelling in after 1945 248–249; net savings in 268; profit movements in 137; unionisation 133; workers to retirees ratio 121 Jevons, W S 10 Johnson, L B 254 de Jonnes, Alexandre Moreau 47 Juglar, C 7; cycles in world boom (1850–72) 207–208 Juttemeier, Karl-Heinz 117, 120 Kalecki, Michael 18, 32, 141–142 Kaplinsky, R 54–56, 58–59 Kay, John 117, 120 Kay, Neil 291 Kennedy, J F 76, 254 Kenya 169 Keyder, Caglar 196 Keyfitz, N 29–30, 103 Keynes, J M 90, 99, 145, 247 Kindleberger, C P 175, 238 King, Francis 117, 118 Kitchen, Martin 7, 204–205 Kohl, Helmut 77 Kondratiev, N D 10–13, 20, 29, 31, 91, 93, 98, 188 Kondratiev cycles 9–13, 184; industrial production, growth in 12; in wholesale prices 10, 11; world economic growth 13 Konrad, George 164 Korea 166, 169, 170, 259; and international reintegration 253 Krupp, Alfred 228, 230, 244 Kuhn, Thomas 34 Kuron, Jacek 269 Kuznets, S 7, 29, 98, 107, 125, 144–145, 229; cycles in world boom (1850–72) 207–208 Labrousse, E 194 Landes, D S 53 Lane, D 163 Lardy, N R 163 Latham, A J H 173 Latin America: Great Britain investment in 164; income distribution 169 Lebanon 169 Lecaillon, J 169 Lessard, D R 179 levelling: in defeated countries 248–251; and inequality feedback 129; and international reintegration 252–255; and microelectronics technology 289–290; and of period of 251–252; as reform strategy 287–288 Liebig, Justus 64 Lincoln, Abraham 211 Linden, D H 126, 144, 250 Lipietz, Alain 18 long boom: and levelling in defeated countries 248–252; origins of 130–131; post 1945 248–260; and reduced profits 131–135; undermining of (1960–70s) 255–260 long waves 7–35, 189; contribution of South to North’s 172–175; cyclical effect in inequalities 130; economic cycles 7–13; effect of on inequality 124–140; explanations 13–18; feedback loops 27–33; and inequalities 30–33; and innovation 15–16; Marxism and 16–18; and money multipler 99–100; North-South relationship 176–177; Perez on 18–27; as price cycles 84–90; profits and wages in 130–131; in retrospect 272–273; Schumpeter on 15–16; technical change and 15–16, 19–20; technological, and population 109–110 Louis Napoleon III 204 Lund, R T 55 M-form organisation 62, 235 machine intelligence: in co-ordination 56–57;in design 57; in manufacture 57–59 Mackintosh, Ian 284 Macmillan, Harold 76 Maddison, A 219, 255 Malawi 169 Malaysia 169 management: and economic integration 78–79; short-term pressures on 79 Mandel, E 12, 32,130–135,139–142, 255–256; and Marxist tradition 16–18 Manteuffel, Otto von 212 manufacture: machine intelligence in 57–59; share in developing countries’ exports 154 Marxism and long waves 16–18 Mason, E S 167–168 Mathias, Peter 87 Mayer, Arno 232 McPherson, James M 211 Medoff, James 78 Mellon, Andrew 75 men: role in social integration 81–82 Mensch, G 15, 69 mergers: and economic integration 78; and political integration 75 Mexico 164, 169, 259 microelectronics technological style 56–60; favourable conditions for 289 90; machine intelligence 56–59; paradigm for 56 migration: and depression crisis of 1980s 263; and economic cycles 8; from Europe 107; and gold discoveries 91–92; and Great Depression (1873–1896) 215; legal, to USA 159; and long waves (1872–92) 224–225; and natural increase, Eastern Europe 112; and population 105–109; and poverty 111; before 1920s 107–109; since 1920s 105–106; skilled, trends in 160–161; to United States 105–108 military factors in international inequalities 149–153, 158 Miller, S M 55, 594 Minami, Ryoshin 171 Minsky, H P 96–98; and money supply model 97–98 mismatch: and crisis in long waves 20–24; and diffusion in technical styles 20; and inertia in socio-political integration 71; of skills and capacity in depression crisis of 1980s 261 Mistral, J 18 Mitchell, B R 14, 105–106, 162, 190, 201–202, 218, 222, 226, 255 models: Minsky’s money supply 97–98; Perez 20, 28, 24; summary of 183–186; of theory 189 Modelski, George 198; world leadership cycles 25–27, 183, 187 monetary feedback: loops in long waves 29, 84–100; before 1914 95–96; in retrospect 272, 274–275; in world boom (1850–72) 209 monetary policy: and Great Depression 236–237; and recovery of 1980s in North 266–268 money multiplier and money supply after 1914 96–97 money supply and interest rates after 1914 96 motive branches of the economy 36, 50; in Fordist technological style 53 Muller, Heinz 118 Munnell, Alicia 102, 104, 116–118 Murphy, Brian 210 Mussolini, Benito 250 Napoleon Bonaparte 196–198, 232 Nasser, Gamal Abdel 163 Net Barter Terms of Trade (NBTT) 155–156, 173, 176; and Great Depression 238–239 Netherlands 25; funded pensions and savings 117–118; gross domestic product, growth of (1870s—1913) 219; income distribution 125; profit movements in 137; unionisation 133 Newcomen, Thomas 43, 191 Newly Industrialising Countries 259 nominal interest rates: before 1914 93–95; after 1914 96–100 Noriega, Manuel 279 Norman, Montagu 77 North: assets in South 177–179; contribution of South 172–175; crisis and upswing in (1960–70s) 256–257; cycles in relationship with South 155–163; international inequalities in long waves 122–145; outcome of crisis and upswing in (1960–70s) 263–266; outlook and ecological crisis 282–283; recovery of 1980s 266–268; reforms: objectives 283–292 North-South relationship: and ecological crisis 276–282; in long waves 176–177 Norway: gross domestic product, growth of (1870s—1913) 219; unionisation 132 O’Brien, Patrick 196, 209–210, 212 oilprices: crisis of upswing and 258–260; effect of fluctuations 174–175 Ono, Akira 171 organisation: changes in technological style 61–68; trade union evolution 67–68; use of in innovation and diffusion in science 63–67 ozone layer 278 Pacey, Arnold 45 Pakistan: flow of skilled manpower 161 Panama 169 Papen, Franz von 244 patents 66, 70 pay differentials 142–144 penal system: reforms of 286–287 Perez, C 18–27, 50, 53, 60, 71, 207; model of long waves 20, 23, 24, 184; on technological styles 36 Perkin, Sir William Henry 64 Peron, Juan 163 Peru 164, 169 Petersen, Hans-Georg 117, 120 Phelps Brown, Edmund 127 Philippines: flow of skilled manpower 161 pig iron production (Great Britain, 1740–1839) 43 Pinkney, David 196, 203 Pitelis, Christos 138–139 Pitt, William 198 Poletayev, Andrey 136 political integration 73–77 political leadership cycles 24–27 politics: crisis and upswing in North (1960–70s) 256–257; and depression crisis of 1980s 264–265; of South and ecological crisis 279 population: counter-cyclical effect of 113–114, 186; and economic growth 110–114;and feedback loops in long waves 29–30, 101–121; and fertility 102–104; and migration 105–109; and technological long wave 109–110; upswings, effect on 101–110 population feedback: before 1920s 111–112;after 1920s 113–114; and rate of saving from 1970s 266; in retrospect 272, 274; in world boom (1850–72) 209 Portugal 25 poverty and migration 111 power by water as technological style 40–45 price cycles 189; long waves as 84–90 price reductions: electricity 53; rail transport 46, 88–89; steel 49; water wheels 42 prices: oil: effect of fluctuations 174–175; by sector in Great Britain 87 pro-cyclical feedback: monetary 96,185; population 114, 185 profitability 135–140; movements in 137; and upswings 140–142 profits in long waves 130–131; and profitability 135–140; reduced 131–135 protectionism: in Great Britain 85; and price increases 90; and slump (1929— 33) 241 Puerto Rico 169 railways: building (1830–1850) 202; in Great Britain 46–48 rainfall cycle: Currie’s 8, 218; and Great Depression (1873–1896) 215, 218; and gross national product, United States 190, 201, 222 rainforests 277 Ranis, G 167 Ranki, I 177 Ray, G F 156 real interest rates: before 1914 90–93; after 1914 96–100; United States 162 recovery of 1980s in North 266–268 regressive change in integration 71–72; and political integration 74 reintegration: economic 288–289; international 252–255 Renault, Louis 249 Rennie, John 42 research and development 64–66 Riddell, Robert 281 Rolt, L T C 40 Roosevelt, Franklin D 162, 242, 247 Rosa, J J 115, 117–121 Rosen, Sherwin 119 Rostow W W 31–32, 85 Russell, Louise 115–116 Russia see Soviet Union savings: age profile for 115; demographic efect on 114–121; and funded pensions 116–118; net in western countries 268; and population feedback in 19702 266 Schubert, H R 43 Schumpeter, J A 12, 15–16, 69–70 Schwartz, Anna 94, 99 science: use of in innovation and diffusion 63–67 Screpanti, Ernesto 134 self-realisation and microelectronics technology 289–290 Senegal 169 Siemens, Friedrich 63 Siemens, Karl Wilhelm 63 Siemens, Werner 50–51, 63 silver: output (1820–1920) 93 Singapore 166, 259 Singer, Charles 43 Sivard, R L 159 Sloan, Alfred P 235–236, 239 Smeaton, John 40 Smith, Adam 38, 101 Smoot-Hawley Act (1931) 240 social integration 81–83 Soete, L 66, 69, 70 Solomou, Solomos 210, 223–224, 255; on Great Depression (1873–1896) 215, 217, 219; Great Depression (1930s) 238; on long waves 9, 11, 31, 69, 207–208; on North-South relationship 155, 173; on price cycles 84–86, 89 Somoza, Anastasio 162 South; contribution to Northern long wave 172–175; crisis and upswing in (1960–70s) 258–260; cycles in relationship with North 155–163; debt indicators for 161; debts to North 177— 9; dependence 153–155; and drugs 279; employment-corrected double factorial terms of trade in 157; immigration to USA 159; inequality and growth in 163–170; international inequalities in long waves 153–155; and international reintegration 253–254; manufacture share in exports 154; net arms imports 159; relationship to North in long waves 176–177; terms of trade in 156, 157 South Africa 169 Soviet Union: industrial production, growth 226; and international reintegration 252–253 Spain 25, 49 specialisation and microelectronics technology 291 Spraos, J 155–157, 238 Sri Lanka 161, 169 Stadelmann, Rudolf 204 Stalin 12, 167 steam transport: and American Civil War 211–212; in retrospect 273; and second crisis in Great Britain 200–206; as technological style 45–48 steel: diffusion of (1896–1921) 225–227; fall in price of 49; and Great Depression (1873–1896) 216; as technological style 48–50 Stephenson, Robert 46 stockbuilding cycles Sukarno, Acnmed 163 Swan, Joseph 50 Swaziland 169 Sweden 49; fertility fluctuations in 102; gross domestic product, growth of (1870s—1913) 219; income distribution 125; profit movements in 137; unionisation 132 Switzerland 133 Syria: flow of skilled manpower 161 Szelenyi, Ivan 164 Taft-Hartley Act (USA) 251 Taiwan 166, 170, 259 Takayama, Noriyuki 117, 120–121 Tanzania 169 taxation: avoidance and disintegration 80; in Germany 229; and levelling, post-war 249; reforms of 284–285, 287 Taylor, A J P 214, 246 Taylor, F W 52, 239 technical change and long waves 15–16, 19–20; mismatch and crisis 20–24 technological styles 19–20; biotechnology 60–61; and depression crisis of 1980s 260–261; electricity 50–51; Fordist 51–53, 53–55; microelectronics 56–60; nature of 36–37; and organisation, changes in 61–68; in retrospect 272; steam transport 45–48; steel 48–50; tempo of 68–70; water 37–45, see also high technology bias Thailand 169 Thatcher, Margaret 75, 77 Thomas, B 107–109, 111–112, 215 Thomas, Sidney G 49, 216 Thyssen, 228, 244 Tomlinson, B R 162 trade: fluctuations, causes of 156–158; in international inequality 150–151, 154; and slump (1929–33) 240–241; terms of in South 156, 157, see also Net Barter Terms of Trade trade unions: crisis and upswing in North (1960–70s) 257; and cycles in inequality 128, 134–135; and economic integration 78–79; evolution of 67–68; and political integration 74–75, see also unionisation transport: reforms of 285–286; steam, see steam transport; by water as technological style 37–40 Trebilcock, Clive 196, 229 Trevithick, Richard 46 Tucker-Solrow, 126 Tunisia 169 Turkey 169 Tylecote, Andrew 132–133, 137, 162 Underdeveloped countries see South unionisation 132–133; and depression crisis of 1980s 261–262; and levelling period after 1945 251 United States 49; anti-communist crusade in 251–252; civil war see American civil war; current balances and gross domestic product 268; divorce and social integration 82–83; economic strength from 1900 227; fertility fluctuations in 104; Fordism: effects of 235–236; Fordism in 53–55, 69; funded pensions and savings 116–117, 118; GNP, growth of (1892–1951) 223; and Great Depression (1930s) 236–242; gross domestic product, growth 217, 219, 255; gross national product (1789–1852) 190, 201; immigration 105–108; income distribution 126; industrial production, growth 226; inequality, reduction of 254; interest rates (1873— 1988) 94; and international integration 73; investments, long term 165; legal migration to 159; levelling period after 1945 251; migration, skilled, trends in 160; money multiplier model in 98–99; money supply and interest rates after 1914 96; net savings in 268; and political integration 75–76; profit movements in 137, 138–139; railway building (1830–1850) 202; rainfall cycle and GNP 190, 201, 222; real interest rates 162; and recovery of 1980s in North 266–268; and slump (1929–33) 240–242; steam transport in 46–47; unionisation 132; wholesale prices 86; workers to retirees ratio 119; as world power 25, 26; and World War I 234–235; and World War II 242–247 upswings: and crisis (1896–1921) 221–236; crisis of see crisis of upswing; effect on population 101–110; and feedback loops 27–28; historical account of 189; and migration 114; and money multiplier 97–98; in Perez – model 20–21, 23–24; and profitability 140–142; results of (1896–1921) 227–232 Uruguay 164, 169 Van Der Wee, Herman 253 Vargas, Getulio 162 Venezuela 169 Vienna, Peace of 199–200 Vilar, P 92 Voslensky, M S 163 wages in long waves 130–131 war and inflation 84–85 water and ecological crisis 278 water as technological style: and first crisis in Great Britain 194–195; in power 40–45; in retrospect 273; in transport 37–40 waterway system in Great Britain (1760–1789) 39, 41 Weber, Eduard 48 Wehler, Hans-Ulrich 229, 233 Weisskopf, Thomas 136 Welfare state 74; and crisis and upswing in North (1960–70s) 256 Wellington, Duke of 198–199 Welzk, Stefan 117 Wheatstone, Sir Charles 48 Whitney, Eli 52 wholesale prices: France 86; Great Britain 85; in Kondratiev cycles 10, 11; United States 86 Wilkinson, R G 191 Willan, Thomas 39 William I, King of Prussia 213, 233 Williamson, J G 126, 144, 250 Williamson, John 179 Williamson, O E 235 women: role in social integration 81–82 world boom (1850–72) 207–214; and American civil war 209–211; causes 208–211; cycles in 207; and European crises 212–214; monetary feedback in 209; population feedback in 209 world economy: core and periphery 31–32, 153; growth of 13; international inequalities in 147–153 World War I 89, 276; effects of 233–235; and Germany 230–231 World War II: and Great Depression (1930s) 242–247; post war period 248–251 Yeats, W B 221, 242 Young, Arthur 167, 193 Zaibatsu: influence in Japan 170–171 Zambia 169 Zia ul Haq 279 Zimbabwe 169 .. .The long wave in the world economy The long wave in the world economy The present crisis in historical perspective Andrew Tylecote First published... been increasing rapidly as the current ‘style’ diffuses in the upswing They find their standing in the workplace and outside it does not reflect their importance, nor does their income; and the. .. addition, the claim that long waves involve a wave in inventions and innovations: During the recession of the long waves, an especially large number of important discoveries and inventions in the