Nợ công là một phần quan trọng và không thể thiếu trong tài chính mỗi quốc gia. Từ những nước nghèo nhất ở châu Phi đến những quốc gia đang phát triển như Việt Nam, Campuchia hay những cường quốc giàu có với trình độ phát triển cao như Mỹ, Nhật, EU thì đều phải đi vay để phục vụ cho các nhu cầu chi tiêu và sử dụng của chính phủ nhằm các mục đích khác nhau. Nợ công cần phải được sử dụng hợp lý, hiệu quả và quản lý tốt, nếu không thì khủng hoảng nợ công có thể xảy ra với bất cứ quốc gia nào tại bất cứ thời điểm nào và để lại những hậu quả nghiêm trọng. Trong khi đó, nợ công của Việt Nam hiện nay đang ở mức 54,3% GDP với tốc độ tăng trưởng nợ hàng năm trên 15%. Với tốc độ này, nợ công của Việt Nam sẽ vượt 100% GDP, một con số đáng báo động đối với một nền kinh tế nhỏ đang phát triển và phụ thuộc nhiều vào xuất khẩu sản phẩm nông nghiệp thô và công nghiệp nhẹ. Do đó, bài viết này sẽ tập trung phân tích rõ hơn tình hình nợ công và quản lý nợ công ở Việt Nam để từ đó đưa ra dự báo về tình hình nợ công của Việt Nam cũng như một số đề xuất về chính sách nhằm quản lý có hiệu quả nợ công ở Việt Nam.
Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Project Vietnam Agricultural Report Research June 2014 Rice Market Review and Analysis Research duration: from 1st May to 8th June 2014 Reported by: Ho Cao Viet (PhD) Submission of draft report for review: 6th June 2014 Submission of full report: 8th June 2014 Page of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Table of Contents Introduction Hot topics of the month Weather condition and its impacts to rice production 3.1 Weather forecasting on April 2014 3.2 Impacts of weather to agriculture 11 Situation of rice production-consumption in Vietnam and global market 11 4.1 Progress stages, crop conditions 11 4.2 Demands in domestic, exportation & importation 15 4.3 Domestic prices and Market trends 20 4.4 Export prices and Market trends 21 4.5 Analysis, Opinion, and Prediction 24 4.6 Other related news 25 Page of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 List of tables Table Forecast of average temperature and precipitation on April 2014 in Vietnam Table Monthly hydrological forecasting for rivers in the Central highland and Southern of Vietnam (1st to 30 Apr 2014) 10 Table Rice sowing area in WS & SA crop by region (up to 15th Mar 2014) 12 Table Rice sowing area of WS crop in the North provinces (up to 15th Mar 2014) 12 Table Sowing area of SA rice crop in the MRD (up to 15th Mar 2014) 13 Table Harvesting area of WS rice crop in the South provinces (up to 15th Mar 2014) .14 Table Weekly rice exportation (Dec 2013 to end of March 2014) .16 Table Monthly rice exportation (Jan 2013 to Mar 2014) 16 Table Rice exportation by import country in March, 2014 .18 Table 10 Price of different rice grades in MRD (27th Mar to 24th Apr 2014) .21 Table 11 Rice prices quote of Vietnam, Thailand in the world market (first weeks of March to middle of April, 2014) 23 List of figures Figure Weather Maps (1st April & 17th April 2014) Figure Forecast of precipitation mean on April, 2014 Figure Forecast of temperature mean on April, 2014 Figure Target markets of Vietnam rice by quantity in 1st quarter of 2014 19 Figure Target markets of Vietnam rice by value in 1st quarter of 2014 .19 Figure Exported price of Vietnam rice by continent/region in 1stquarter of 2014 20 Figure Fluctuation of rice price in domestic by grade from March to April 2014 20 Figure Fluctuation of long-grain paddy price in domestic from March to April 2014 21 Figure Volume of Vietnam exported rice and value (from Jan to 14th Apr 2014) 23 Page of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Introduction The database and information used in report were collected since May 2014 to the end of May 2014 from different official sources as well as direct contacts to experts who involved to rice sector Information is updated and bearing the major events and topics of rice production and consumption in Vietnam in referring to the global market as well as the analysis of authors and rice specialists Hot topics of the month The winning the tender to supply 800,000 tons of 15% broken white rice to the Philippines seems to face many difficulties for Vietnamese rice exporters in both MRD and Northern Most of private exporters does not willing to join the Philippines rice export program because the fear of losses The VINAFOOD II company won the bid to supply 600,000 tons of rice to the Philippines with selling prices of $436.5 per ton, $437.75 per ton and $439.25 per ton of rice for three lots of 200,000 tons The VINAFOOD I won the contract to supply 200,000 tons of rice at selling prices of $436 per tons and $439 per ton for two lots of 100,000 tons (VFA, 2014) At the present, some of the private exporters are officially refusing to supply rice to the Philippines because the exported prices are too low to cover expenses They said that same kind of rice being exported to China is fetching a better price and is unconditional even there is being the conflict of Vietnam and China because of oil rig in offshore (local news) Whereas, if they are collecting rice now at high actual prices to export to the Philippines would lead to losses of at least $20 per ton Domestic prices, which plunged in early March and April, began firming up due to the stockpiling scheme of million tons of paddy On the contrary, some exporters who began collecting rice since March are likely to interest in delivering rice to the Philippines Exporters are also criticizing the two state-owned export companies for Page of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 offering bids around $30 per ton lower compared to those of Thailand and Cambodia In this situation, doubts are rife whether Vietnam can fulfill its contracts to the Philippines (local news; www.oryza.com) Vietnam exported about 2.061 million tons of rice during 1st January to 22nd May 2014, down 26% from about 2.8 million tons of rice exported during the same time in 2013 (data of VFA) Average rice export price so far in this year stands at about $436 per ton (FOB), down about 1% from about $439 per ton recorded during January - May, 2013 (www.oryza.com) Many experts questioned that the Chinese military marching Vietnam border will rice export to China slow (?) Since beginning of May 2014, after the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) started to set up unauthorized an oil rig about 120 nautical miles away from Vietnam waters near the Paracels islands, the conflict between the countries is imminent China continued its attempts to capture illegally the oil rig and has evacuated Chinese citizens Meanwhile Vietnam authorities have tried to quiet protestors By the consequence, if Vietnam rice exports to China in next few months, a major destination for Vietnam rice exports (official and smuggled), are compromised, this could severely effects on Vietnam rice prices However, until now there are not any issues that concerned to Vietnam rice export and other agricultural products exported to China The VCCI (Vietnam Commerce Industry Chamber) has warned the Vietnam exporters who have business with Hong Kong and Chinese entrepreneurs that they should find other replaced markets instead of depending on China VFA has also expressed concern about the dependency of Vietnam rice exports on the Chinese market, both official and unofficial exports Local sources note that some Chinese buyers have also defaulted on payments, another risk (local sources and www.oryza.com) Prime Minister launched the decision 62Q -TTg to encourage the entrepreneurs cooperate with farmers and cooperatives producing rice largescale and rice consumption under the contract farming formality called Page of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 “Large-scale rice field” (“Cánh đ ng m u l n”) The World Bank has supported Vietnam to realize the ACP project (Agriculture Competitiveness Project) in order to enhance the competitive capacity of rice companies and rice farmers in provinces of Can Tho, Soc Trang, Long An, Tien Giang, An Giang, Dong Thap and Kien Giang in MRD The preliminary assessment shown that the rice farmers in most of these provinces have reduced the costs of production by cutting down the expenditures on rice seeds, fertilizer and pesticides, competitive selling price and improve the profit The quality of harvested rice meet high standard requirement of exporters (Ho Cao Viet, 2014)1 On 17 May 2014, MARD held preliminary meeting in implementing the project "Restructuring the agricultural sector towards improving the added value and sustainable development” The project firstly focused on rice cultivation towards reducing rice areas where there were low comparative advantage, inefficiency switching to growing of cash crops and forage crops From the last six months of 2013 to early 2014, there was 87,000 hectares of rice switched to growing of maize, rice, sesame and vegetables (MARD, May 2014) On 27 May 2014, MARD held preliminary conference on production of rice WS 20132014 and plan of SA and WS2014-2015 in the North According to the Department of Crop Production (DCP), the cultivated rice area in WS 2013-2014 was 1,159,000 hectares, down about 1,500 compared to previous WS crop The rice yield in this crop was at about 62.4 kg per hectare, higher than previous WS crop about 0.5 kg Total rice productivity was 7.2 million ton in this crop (MARD) Changewas ricecarried to cashout crops MRDMay 2014 on 383 farmers, 20 rice cooperatives and rice entrepreneurs in provinces Survey on in 18-29 Chili cultivation in rice field in Spring crop in MRD ofPhoto: MRD.Ho Cao Viet, May 2014 Photo: Ho Cao Viet, May 2014 Page of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Weather condition and its impacts to rice production According to NCHMF, on May 2014, the provinces in the North influences by 3-4 cold-air blocks that caused light and heavy rainfall in this region The high temperature and extremely heat may occur mainly in the Northwest, North and Middle Central region In the Central Coastal region, it will rain and reduce the drought situation in this region The Northwest wind will operate in the end of May in provinces of Southern and Highland 3.1 Weather forecasting on April 2014 North: Average temperature will be approximately the mean of temperature in 30 previous years from -0.5 to 0.5oC The rainfall will be similarly level of previous years, varies from -20 to 50% (NCHMF, May 2014) Central coastal: Average temperature will be lower than mean of temperature in 30 previous year from 0.5 to 1.0 oC The provinces from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien, the rainfall will be at level of previous years, varies from -20% to 20% in average From provinces of Da Nang to Binh Thuan, rainfall varies from 2-% to 50% compared to average level of previous years (NCHMF, May 2014) Highland and South: Average temperature will be lower than mean of temperature in 30 previous years at 0.5 to 1.0oC In the Southern region, temperature at the similar level of previous years, varies from -0.5 to 0.5oC Average rainfall in highland will be higher than that of previous year, varies from 20-50% compared to mean of rainfall in 30 previous years In the South, rainfall is the same level of previous years, varies from -20 to 20% (NCHMF, May 2014) Page of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Source: NCNMF, 2014 Source: NCNMF, 2014 Figure Forecast of temperature mean on May, 2014 Figure Forecast of precipitation mean on May, 2014 Figure Weather Maps (5th May & 1st June 2014) Source: Weather online (www.weatheronline.co.uk) Page of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Table Forecast of average temperature and precipitation on May 2014 in Vietnam 30-years 30-years Forecast of Forecast of mean of mean of temperature rainfall Ord Station temperature rainfall o ( C) (mm) (oC) (mm) S n La 24.7 24.0-25.0 171 130-200 Hà N i 27.3 27.0-28.0 188 150-220 H i Phòng 26.4 26.0-27.0 203 150-250 Thanh Hóa 27.2 26.0-27.0 157 150-200 Vinh 27.7 26.5-27.5 136 150-200 Hu 28.3 27.0-28.0 82 100-150 28.2 27.0-28.0 63 50-100 N ng Nha Trang 28.3 27.0-28.0 55 50-100 Buôn Ma Thu t 25.8 24.5-25.5 226 250-300 Châu c 28.3 28.0-29.0 Source: NCHMF, 2014 (accessed on 31st May 2014) 196 150-250 10 (http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/en-US/70/105/Default.aspx) Page of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Table Monthly hydrological forecasting for rivers in the Central highland and Southern of Vietnam (21st to 31st May 2014) Observed River Station Ma Ly Nha Ca Ta Trach Yen Thuong Thuong Nhat Thu Bon Nong Son Tra Khuc Tra Khuc Kon Binh Tuong Ba Cung Son Cai N.T Dong Trang Dakbla Kon Tum Serepok Ban Don Tien Tan Chau Hau Chau Doc Factor Forecasted Mean 11-20 May 2014 Compared to the mean annual stage Mean 21-31 May 2014 Compared to the mean annual stage 277 < 122 cm 310 < 107 cm 144 < 46% 220 < 41% 3.44 < 55% 2.70 < 74% 86.2 < 26% 129 >7% 44.0 < 120 cm 35.0 < 130 cm - - - - 96.4 < 35% 80.0 < 48% 7.40 < 82 % 6.50 < 85% 54.5 > 7% 65.0 > 13% 97 < 25% 105 < 36% Hmax 116 > 22 cm 100 < cm Hmin -14 < cm < cm Hmax 127 > 34 cm 110 > 10 cm Hmin -21 *** -5 > cm Water level (cm) Discharge (m3/s) Discharge (m3/s) Discharge (m3/s) Discharge (m3/s) Discharge (m3/s) Discharge (m3/s) Discharge (m3/s) Discharge (m3/s) Discharge (m3/s) Note: *** similarly average of previous years Source: NCHMF, 2014 (accessed on 31st May 2014) (http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/en-US/71/110/21077/Default.aspx) Page 10 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 In the South: until to 15th of March 2014, the harvest area of WS rice crop has reached nearly 800 thousand hectares, mainly concentrated in MRD provinces In this year, the harvesting time is prolonged compared to the same period last year Around 60 % of area was harvested The flooding was main cause in MRD because it withdraws slowly in this year However, harvesting progress was accelerated in the end of March (Table 6) According to the initial reports of the Mekong Delta provinces, the average yield of WS rice crop is estimated at tons per ha, higher than the previous crop about tons per ha; especially, in the province of Long An, Can Tho, Hau Giang, Dong Thap, Vinh Long, Tien Giang, and An Giang, where the average yield is estimated at above tons per (Table 6) At the same time, SA rice crop has also sown Up to 15th March, sowing area was around 212 thousand hectares, nearly 60 % compared to the same period last year There was 60.7 thousand hectares in Dong Thap, 50 thousand hectares in Soc Trang; 38.5 thousand hectares in Tien Giang, and 21.8 thousand hectare in Can Tho province (Table 5) Table Sowing area of SA rice crop in the MRD (up to 15th Mar 2014) Region/Provinces Sowing area in SA crop (hectare) MRD 212,199 Long An 2,330 Tien Giang 38,525 Ben Tre Tra Vinh 1,635 Vinh Long 23,497 Dong Thap 60,723 An Giang 923 Kien Giang 6,133 Can Tho 21,822 Hau Giang 5,260 Soc Trang 50,051 Bac Lieu 1,300 Ca Mau Source: MARD, April 2014 Page 13 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Table Harvesting area of WS rice crop in the South provinces (up to 15th Mar 2014) Region/Provinces Harvesting area in WS crop (hectare) South 799,432 SCC 28,712 Da Nang city Quang Nam Quang Ngai Binh Dinh 3,160 Phu Yen Khanh Hoa 2,095 Ninh Thuan 15,997 Binh Thuan 7,460 Highland 4,169 Kon Tum Gia Lai Dak Lak 455 Dak Nong Lam Dong 3,714 Southeast 5,953 Binh Phuoc Tay Ninh 4.419 Binh Duong Dong Nai Ba Ria-Vung Tau 1,273 Hochiminh city 261 MRD 760,598 Long An 79,303 Tien Giang 77,659 Ben Tre 80 Tra Vinh 26,922 Vinh Long 61,501 Dong Thap 103,912 An Giang 21,174 Kien Giang 159,432 Can Tho 59,302 Hau Giang 28,621 Soc Trang 107,137 Bac Lieu 35,800 Ca Mau Source: MARD, April 2014 Compared to sowing area in WS crop (%) 41.0 6.7 10.4 100.0 20.9 5,0 1.3 34.7 8.0 10.1 24.2 5.5 48.7 33.7 100.0 0.4 40.5 100.0 50.1 8.9 52.1 67.4 37.0 75.8 77.5 - Yield (ton per ha) 6.99 6.08 6.00 5.70 6.26 5.97 4.55 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.90 5.39 7.06 7.65 7.12 4.70 6.56 7.19 7.29 7.00 6.92 7.48 7.40 6.42 6.58 - In the report of FAO has estimated that Vietnam's total paddy rice production at about 44.2 million tons (around 27.6 million tons of milled rice) in 2014, marginally higher than about 44 million tons (around 27.5 million tons of milled Page 14 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 rice) produced in 2013 The UN agency however, forecasts Vietnam's paddy rice production from 2014 WS crop at 20.3 million tons, similar to last year's production, despite shifting part of the rice area to other crops, due to higher yields, favorable weather conditions, and adequate water supplies (www.oryza.com) 4.2 Demands in domestic, exportation & importation During beginning of May to 22nd of this month, 2014, Vietnam exported about 309,974 tons of rice, down about 52% from about 648,359 tons rice exported in full month of May 2013, and down about 42% from about 537,094 tons rice exported in full month of April 2014 The average export price so far in May stands at around $431 per ton, up about 2% from a year ago, and down about 2% from a month ago (calculated from VFA data and Vietnam customs, May 2014) Vietnam's rice exports during 1st to 22nd May, 2014 include: 149,711 tons of 15% broken rice (about 48% of total rice exports in May 2014); 61,826 tons of Aromatic rice (about 20% of total rice exports in May 2014); 54,414 tons of 4-10% broken rice (about 18% of total rice export in May 2014); and 28,449 tons Nep or glutinous rice (about 9% of total rice exports in May 2014) Asia was the major rice exporting destination for Vietnam rice so far in May 2014, with about 177,431 tons or about 57% of total rice exports The Americas was the second largest destination, accounting for of about 65,091 tons of rice exports (equivalent to about 21% of total rice exports in May 2014) Vietnam also exported 58,066 tons of rice to the Africa, about 7,114 tons of rice to the Europe, about 2,138 tons of rice to the Middle East, and about 134 tons of rice to Australia so far in May 2014 Page 15 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 FAO has estimated Vietnam's milled rice exports to increase to about 7.2 million tons in 2014, up about 8% from about 6.7 million tons in 2013 due to higher production and increased export demand from Asian countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, China and the Philippines backed by low prices In 2012, Vietnam exported about 7.6 million tons Japonica rice in Trung An Company, Can Tho - Vietnam Photo: Ho Cao Viet, May 2014 Diverse rice products in Trung An Company, Can Tho, Vietnam Photo: Ho Cao Viet, May 2014 Table Weekly rice exportation (Dec 2013 to first week of May 2014) Period Reporting period Year to date (from – to) Tons USD Tons USD 16/12/2013 31/12/2013 01/01/2014 – 15/01/2014 01/02/2014 – 15/02/2014 16/02/2014 28/02/2014 01/03/2014 – 15/03/2014 16/03/2014 – 31/03/2014 01/04/2014 – 15/04/2014 16/04/2014 – 30/04/2014 01/05/2014 – 15/05/2014 184,458 89,038,225 6,592,439 2,925,222,101 258,507 121,396,340 258,507 121,396,340 166,355 77,015,418 533,887 252,297,463 264,996 121,758,147 791,437 370,997,328 262,040 121,668,699 1,048,989 490,810,389 373,854 164,248,784 1,417,392 652,456,320 315,264 139,176,019 1,723,126 787,516,051 342,014 154,401,803 2,060,768 940,094,161 295,635 129,637,175 2,351,491 1,067,579,143 Source: General Department of Vietnamese Customs Mont h Year Table Monthly rice exportation (Jan 2013 to Apr 2014) Compared to previous Reporting period Reporting period month (%) Page 16 of 27 Compared to previous year (%) Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 USD 203,401,224 Tons 74.4 USD 39.3 -23.0 799,626 360,085,741 13.9 -1.3 109.1 1,549,777 687,687,321 15.9 4.4 -11.8 2,198,812 976,560,956 -0.6 -6.1 12.3 11.9 2,927,647 1,299,723,337 -0.9 -5.3 -12.0 -14.0 3,568,810 1,575,826,664 -6.8 -10.3 1.1 -0.8 4,232,338 1,856,659,413 -10.9 -13.9 1.4 4.9 4,876,202 2,138,471,464 -12.4 -15.2 -30.1 -28.4 5,322,709 2,338,412,577 -14.7 -17.2 17.9 17.5 5,851,380 2,573,903,236 -15.2 -17.9 -30.8 -28.2 6,221,918 2,745,630,310 -17.0 -19.9 3.2 7.4 6,592,439 2,925,222,101 -17.8 -20.4 -4.9 -6.0 368,867 175,832,182 -17.1 -13.6 426,294 196,742,665 15.6 11.9 791,437 370,997,328 -1.0 February 631,030 283,631,576 49.7 45.6 1,417,392 652,456,320 -7.9 March 653,819 292,162 3.6 3.0 2,060,768 940.094,161 -5.8 April Source: Calculated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs 3.0 2013 Tons 444,723 January February March April May June July August September October November December January Tons 444,723 USD 203,401,224 Tons -14.0 354,902 156,684,518 -20.2 750,151 327,601,579 111.4 649,035 288,873,634 -13.5 728,835 323,162,380 641,163 276,103,327 650,011 274,884,662 659,012 288,234,735 460,820 206,462,801 543,480 242,651,420 376,057 174,235,382 387,929 187,124,596 368,867 175,832,182 USD -16.8 2014 Page 17 of 27 -4.4 -3.2 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Table Rice exportation by import country in March, 2014 Reporting period (Mar 2014) Year to date Country/continent (1st Feb to 30th Mar 2014) Tons USD Tons USD Africa 43,272 22,210,950 73,116 38,229,275 Algeria 3,214 1,304,388 3,758 1,525,151 Angola 576 317,525 1,137 623,786 1,744 944,982 1,837 1,011,806 32,486 17,297,737 57,818 31,316,491 4,845 2,037,785 8,159 3,443,508 407 308,533 407 308,533 6,428 3,472,415 11,312 6,343,019 46 31,471 410 234,671 Belgium 490 235,200 1,143 585,194 Bulgaria 1,385 880,913 3,096 2,024,184 780 405,603 1,490 763,508 France 1,319 770,440 1,387 830,374 Spain 118 63,658 313 203,626 Turkey 848 418,300 1,774 901,534 Ukraine 1,442 666,830 1,699 799,928 462,189 203,526,488 1,115,162 502,670,857 Brunei 1,401 817,643 2,882 1,761,636 Taiwan 4,989 2,941,061 7,930 4,743,839 East Timor 18,500 7,112,939 35,800 13,916,208 Hong Kong 15,864 8,987,173 38,436 23,059,252 1,400 721,000 Ivory Coast Ghana South Africa Senegal EU Poland Netherland Asia Indonesia Malaysia 10,511 5,920,248 8,159 3,443,508 Philippines 1,060 488,451 379,450 175,339,824 Singapore 28,565 12,518,877 52,647 24,737,096 378,259 162,809,646 581,426 250,367,404 501 347,420 1,397 973,876 United Arab Emirates 2,539 1,583,030 5,635 3,607,214 United States 3,981 2,421,889 8,751 5,643,884 10,033 4,480,209 12,280 5,550,767 China Australia Russian Federation Source: Calculated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs Page 18 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 In 2nd week of May, VFA has lowered its 2014 rice export target to 6.2 million tons from the earlier target of 6.5 - million tons due to heavy competition from India and Thailand USDA estimates Vietnam to export 6.5 million tons of rice in 2014 Note: Calculated by quantity of exported rice (ton) Source: generated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs Figure Target markets of Vietnam rice by quantity in 1st quarter of 2014 Note: Calculated by value of exportation (USD) Source: generated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs Figure Target markets of Vietnam rice by value in 1st quarter of 2014 Page 19 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Source: Calculated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs Figure Exported price of Vietnam rice by continent/region in 1stquarter of 2014 The estimation of average rice exported price based on total export value and quantity of exported rice in first quarter of 2014 showed in figure that: import price of Vietnam rice was relatively high in EU countries at $560 per ton and lowest in Africa continent at $494 per ton because differentiation of rice quality In Asia countries, import price of Vietnam rice was high in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Brunei at level of $598, $599.9 and $611.3 per ton In EU countries, Vietnam rice has good price in some countries such as Bulgaria, Spain and France at $653.8, $650.6 $598.7 per ton, respectively (Fig.6) Therefore, Vietnamese rice exporters should focus on these target market for improving the added value of exported rice 4.3 Domestic prices and Market trends Note: Price delivered at port no bagged Source: generated from VFA’s data Figure Fluctuation of rice price in domestic by grade from March to April 2014 Page 20 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Table 10 Price of different rice grades in MRD (27th Mar to 24th Apr 2014) Unit: dong per kg Rice quality 27 Mar 2014 04 Apr 2014 10 Apr 2014 24 Apr 2014 Ordinary paddya 5,250 5,250 5,200 5,250 Long-grain paddy 5,550 5,550 5,450 5,500 b Raw rice for processing 5% 7,050 6,950 6,750 6,800 25% 6,750 6,750 6,550 6,650 Rice delivered at port without package/bagged 5% 7,850 7,900 7,750 7,900 15% 7,600 7,650 7,500 7,650 25% 7,350 7,350 7,300 7,350 Note: a dried paddy, b not polishing rice used for processing Source: compiled and calculated from database of VFA, April 2014 Note: Price of long-grain and ordinary paddy Source: generated from VFA’s data Figure Fluctuation of long-grain paddy price in domestic from March to April 2014 The rice experts expected that price of paddy will be continue to increase in next few weeks of May 2014 because most of farmers have sold the storage paddy after peak harvesting and rice stockpiling scheme is realizing by entrepreneurs in MRD 4.4 Export prices and Market trends Page 21 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Table 10 Thailand and Vietnam rice prices quote (Aug 2013 to Apr 2014) Source: USDA, updated on April 2014 Vietnam exported about 2.061 million tons of rice during January - May 22, 2014, down about 26% from about 2.8 million tons of rice exported during January -May, 2013, according to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) Average rice export price so far in this year stands at about $436 per ton (FOB), down about 1% from about $439 per ton recorded during January - May, 2013 During May 1-22, 2014, Vietnam exported about 309,974 tons of rice, down about 52% from about 648,359 tons rice exported in full month of May 2013, and down about 42% from about 537,094 tons rice exported in full month of April 2014 The average export price so far in May stands at around $431 per ton, up about 2% from a year ago, and down about 2% from a month ago Vietnam's rice exports during May 1-22, 2014 include: 149,711 tons of 15% broken rice (about 48% of total rice exports in May 2014); 61,826 tons of Aromatic rice (about 20% of total rice exports in May 2014); 54,414 tons of 4-10% broken rice (about 18% of total rice export in May 2014); and 28,449 tons Nep or glutinous rice (about 9% of total rice exports in May 2014) Asia was the major rice exporting destination for Vietnam rice so far in May 2014, with about 177,431 tons or about 57% of total rice exports The Americas was the second largest destination, accounting for of about 65,091 tons of rice exports (equivalent to about 21% of total rice exports in May 2014) Vietnam also exported 58,066 tons of rice to the Africa, about 7,114 tons of rice to the Europe, about 2,138 tons of rice to the Middle East, and about 134 tons of rice to Australia so far in May 2014 (http://www.oryza.com) Page 22 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Source: www.oriza.com (accessed on 31 May 2014) Figure Volume of Vietnam exported rice and value (from Jan to 22nd May 2014) Table 11 Rice prices quote of Vietnam, Thailand in the world market (first weeks of April to end of May, 2014) Unit: USD per ton Quality first weeks end of May, Trend in of Apr, 2014 2014 short-term Thailand 100% B grade 395 – 405 390 – 400 Long grain white rice high quality Vietnam 5% broken 380 – 390 400 - 410 Thailand 25% broken 345 – 355 345 – 355 Long grain white Vietnam 25% broken rice low quality 350 – 360 360 – 370 Thailand Hommali 92% 940 – 950 945 – 955 Long grain fragrant rice Vietnam Jasmine 490 – 500 525 – 535 Thailand A1 Super 300 – 310 305-315 Broken Vietnam 100% broken 330 – 340 335-345 th Source: www.oryza.com (updated on 30 May 2014) Page 23 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 4.5 Analysis, Opinion, and Prediction Page 24 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 4.6 Other related news Appendix Global rice importers, monthly revisions and annual changes Source: Production, Supply, & Distribution Online Data Base, FAS/USDA, (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx Last updated April 10, 2014) Page 25 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Appendix Global rice exporters, monthly revisions and annual changes Source: Production, Supply, & Distribution Online Data Base, FAS/USDA, (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx Last updated April 10, 2014) Page 26 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Abbreviation VFA MARD MIT VC WS SA NCHMF MRD RRD NCC SCC DCP Vietnam Food Association Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Ministry of Industry and Trade General Department of Vietnamese Customs Winter-Spring rice crop Summer-Autumn rice crop National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Mekong River Delta Red River Delta North Central Coast South Central Coast Department of Crop Production, MARD Page 27 of 27 ... of Vietnam rice by value in 1st quarter of 2014 Page 19 of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Source: Calculated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs Figure Exported price of Vietnam. .. severely effects on Vietnam rice prices However, until now there are not any issues that concerned to Vietnam rice export and other agricultural products exported to China The VCCI (Vietnam Commerce... Figure Volume of Vietnam exported rice and value (from Jan to 14th Apr 2014) 23 Page of 27 Vietnam Rice Report – June 2014 Introduction The database and information used in report were collected