Phát triển quan hệ thương mại việt nam với các nước đông á đến năm 2030 tt tiếng anh

1 INTRODUCTION RATIONALE OF THE STUDY In the context of increasing globalization, developing trade relations has become an urgent need for most countries in the world Theoretically, the studies of Smith (1776), Ricardo (1817), Heckscher-Ohlin (1933) and other researchers have revealed that international trade relations are based on differences in countries’ human resources, levels of human resource management, resources, technology, and levels of socio-economic development Trade relation development allows countries to participate in division of labor and international cooperation; as well as to improve the economic efficiency through specialization and to take advantage of economies of scale On the basis of trade relation development, the integration in terms of politics, culture, society, national security, etc will be brought about and promoted For developing countries, their relations with developed countries in the region can result in the establishment of production network and the enhancement of regional cooperation (Kojima 1978, Krugman 1991) In practice, in the development of trade relations in a market economy, the role of the state is particularly important This is evident through more than 30 years of innovation in Vietnam Vietnam has now established trade and investment relations with over 230 countries and territories, signed and implemented/will implement 16 free trade agreements (FTA), including new generation ones Trade and investment relations with other regions, especially with East Asia region have experienced significant development However, in the process of developing trade relations with East Asia, Vietnam also faced many problems: Firstly, the regional trade relations are currently focused on only of Northeast Asian countries; Secondly, the trade relation between Vietnam and East Asia still focuses mainly on bilateral relations Thirdly, the cooperation has only developed in width but has not really gone into depth Therefore, Vietnam does not seem to have fully exploited its strengths Fourthly, taking advantage of tax incentives, especially preferential utilization rate under C/O is still low Fifthly, in trade in goods, the prevailing situation with Vietnam is an increase in trade deficit from East Asia Trade volume increases but the index of trade density and market share shows the relatively small proportion of goods flow from Vietnam exported to or imported from these markets In the coming time, East Asia is expected to become the focus of the shift in regional role in relation to other regions The guiding documents in recent years crucial to Vietnam also emphasize on the important position and role of East Asia in the economic development, trade and security of Vietnam Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a study on “Trade Relationship Development between Vietnam and East Asian Countries, with visions to the Year 2030”, making meaningful contributions to both theories and practice LITERATURE REVIEW Current studies related to the research topic, both within and beyond the country, were reviewed and classified into categories: Firstly, research on trade relations between countries, both in English and in Vietnamese, including: Smith (1776) in "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations", Ricardo (1817) in "Principles of Political Economy and Taxation", Heckscher & Ohlin (1933) in "Inter-regional and International Trade”, Linder (1961) in “An Essay on Trade & Transformation”, Posner (1961) in “International Trade & Technical Change”, Vernon (1966) in “International Investment & International Trade in the Product Cycle”, Porter (1990) in "The Competitive Advantage of Nations"; thesis by Hoang Xuan Hoa (2002) in "Theoretical and Practical Basis of Development of Vietnam – EU Trade Relations”, Trinh Thi Thanh Thuy (2007) in "The Process of Developing Trade Relation between Vietnam and Russia in the Context of International Economic Integration", Tran Quang Huy (2015) in "Solutions for Developing Trade Relation between Vietnam and Countries in the Southern African Customs Union - SACU”; Secondly, research on integration and economic trade development between countries in geographical areas, with research of Viner (1950), Meade (1955), Lipsey (1957), Balassa (1961), Akamatsu (1962) ), Johnson (1965), Kojima (1978), Krugman (1991); Thirdly, with 80 research on trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries and with Japan, China and South Korea respectivelly This section not only clarifies the scientific contributions of existing research (in theory and practice) but also identifies a research gap RESEARCH AIM AND OBJECTIVES 3.1 Research aim On the theoretical and practical bases of management of developing international trade relation between Vietnam and East Asian countries, the research proposes solutions to developing trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries by 2030 3.2 Research objectives Firstly, to selectively systematize and interpret some theoretical bases of trade relation development between countries; Secondly, to analyze and evaluate the actual situation of trade relation development between Vietnam and East Asian countries from 2007 up to now, with an attempt to identify achievements as well as existing shortcomings and their causes; Thirdly, to examine international, regional and national contexts, to form opinions and orientations, and to propose solutions to developing trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries by 2030 RESEARCH FOCUS AND SCOPE 4.1 Research focus The research focus includes theoretical and practical issues regarding the trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries 4.2 Scope of the study Firstly, the scope of the research is limited to East Asia The research, however, only focuses on the trade relations between Vietnam and some neighboring countries, namely Japan, South Korea, China and ASEAN, which have official cooperation with Vietnam and are major partners with strong influence on Vietnam’s trade, investment and other international relations Secondly, regarding management practices in Vietnam, the thesis focuses on the management functions of law enforcement agencies such as the government and ministries, which are central management agencies, with the following main areas: The State establishes a framework for the development of international trade relation; The State uses tools/measures to promote the development of international trade relation In the thesis, the trade relation between Vietnam as an independent and sovereign state and Japan, South Korea and China country is considered bilateral In this thesis, the following are considered multi-lateral: Trade relation between Vietnam and ASEAN as a whole; trade relation conducted by Vietnam as a member of ASEAN in ASEAN + cooperation models, ASEAN + 3; Vietnam’s relations with East Asian countries within the framework of regional cooperation initiatives and multilateral cooperation forum in the region Trade relation and developing trade relation between Vietnam and East Asia, in this thesis, are limited in the field of trade in goods Thirdly, the research explores the actual situation of developing trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries and the achievements from 2007 up to now Recommendations and solutions to developing trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries can be applied by 2030 RESEARCH METHODS 5.1 Research methodology and approach Dialectical and historical materialism was adopted as the foundation of the study Research approaches include: from theory to practice; cause and effect; systems approach; with the state as the research subject 5.2 Research methods 5.2.1 Data collection methods - Primary data collection methods Primary data were collected from indepth interviews with experts, researchers in universities and other institutions - Secondary data collection methods Secondary data were collected from sources within and beyond the country The prior are: summary reports, data published quarterly and yearly as well as posted daily on the websites of ministries, for instance Ministry of Industry and Trade, General Statistics Office, General Department of Vietnam Customs, etc.; articles and studies published in journals such as Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, Journal of Trade, etc.; books and reference materials from the library of Thuongmai University and the National Library Data from foreign sources were mostly collected from reliable websites such as Trademap, UNCOMTRADE, WITS under World Bank, WTO, ASEAN information portal, etc 5.2.2 Data analysis methods Primary and secondary data were analyzed using general analysis of theories, descriptive statistical methods, comparative statistics They were checked, evaluated in terms of appropriateness and accuracy, then selected to be calculated and analyzed Excel and website of WITS were employed to calculate the international trade index to reflect the trade relation results in Chapter NEW CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE STUDY Theoretical Contributions The thesis has systematized and further developed theoretical and practical bases for trade relationship development Besides clarifying the nature of trade relationship development, forms and criteria for assessment, the thesis has focused on principles and requirements of trade relationship development In particular, the thesis seeks to examine the following points: that the State of Vietnam creates frameworks for the establishment of trade relationships and that the State of Vietnam employs tools/measures for the development of trade relationships In addition, the thesis has indicated international, regional and national factors that affect international trade relationship: The international and regional factors are globalization, trade liberalization trends, advances in science of engineering and technology, emergence of new issues in international relations, etc The national factors include the national policies of international economic integration, conditions for the development of international trade relationship (i.e the country’s law and policies, physical and social infrastructure, competing capacity, human resources, etc) Furthermore, the thesis has studied the experience of such selected countries as China, Japan and South Korea in developing trade relationships and drawn lessons for Vietnam, especially with the East Asian region Practical Contributions Reviewing Vietnam’s potential to develop trade relationships with East Asian countries and the status quo of developing trade relationships in the East Asian region, the thesis conducted an in-depth analysis of the status quo of Vietnam’s developing trade relationships with East Asian countries from 2007 up to now The analysis focuses on clarifying the status quo of developing trade relationships with East Asia and the applied policies of developing trade relationships with East Asia The thesis employed the qualitative research method, conducting in-depth interviews with experts in order to analyze and offer judgements and evaluation of achievements and limitations of developing trade relationships with East Asia from 2007 up to now To be specific, the achievements are demonstrated with evidence of having facilitated trade relationship development in different forms and at different levels, established frameworks for the development, created mechanisms for supporting and promoting trading relationships, expanded trade scale, developed various economic relations, cultural exchanges, foreign direct investment In the meantime, the thesis has indicated the limitations of organizing the implementation of the national policies, collaborating to resolve disputes and to deal with constraints emerging from the status quo of trading Recommendations Based on the theoretical and practical backgrounds of trade relationship development with China, South Korea, Japan and ASEAN, the thesis proposes viewpoints, orientations and solutions in order to develop trade relationships between Vietnam and East Asia up to the year 2030 In particular, the solutions are categorized into some main groups: building a comprehensive framework of cooperation and deepening the relationship with East Asia countries, promoting negotiations with East Asian countries, conducting two-way communication at government level, developing human resources, addressing trade deficit, collaborating to promote trade effectively, etc Furthermore, the thesis also proposes a number of conditional solutions such as continuing breakthroughs in innovation of integration thinking, raising social awareness about the integration and development of trade relations in the new context, improving in the business environment and the law, strengthening the assignment and decentralization in state management STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY Apart from the Introduction, Conclusion, List of Abbreviations, List of Tables and Figures, References, Appendices, the research consists of chapters Chapter Theoretical framework and practical experience of developing trade relation between countries Chapter Analysis and evaluation of the actual situation of developing trade relation between Vietnam and East Asian countries Chapter Opinion, orientation and some solutions to developing trade relation between Vietnam and East Asian countries by 2030 Chapter SOME THEORETICAL BACKGROUNDS AND PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE OF DEVELOPING INTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONS 1.1 THE CHARACTERISTICS, ROLES AND FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE DEVELOPING OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONS 1.1.1 The natures, forms and characteristics of developing international trade relations In this section, the thesis introduces concepts of international trade relations, trade relations development, thereby clarifying the nature of trade relations development among countries, forms, characteristics, roles and factors affecting trade relations development - International trade relations is used to mention all relationships in different forms of linkage and cooperation on various levels that bring mutual benefits - The development of international trade relations: In essence, the development of international trade is the process of reflecting the efforts of the parties to create change in all aspects of established trade relations, including scale, scope, content, and nature with the aim of increasing the efficiency and sustainable development of this relationship The forms of developing international trade relations - Regarding the nature of the relationship: Bilateral and multilateral trade relation development - Regarding the levels of cooperation: First, negotiate and join global economic, financial and financial institutions and institutions; Secondly, cooperation in regional, inter-regional conferences, sub-regional/sub-regional cooperation; Thirdly, cooperation in regional forums; Fourthly, participating in regional economic links; Fifthly, cooperating under bilateral or regional agreements or FTAs - Regarding cooperation in policy making: information exchange, dialogue and consultation, policy coordination, policy consistency The characteristics of developing international trade relations As it is among those special international relation, developing international trade relations has its own characteristics: Firstly, this is considered the manifestation of national views, decisions and guidelines on foreign policy 8 Secondly, this is a step that the governments involved in regional and international economic and trade integration make in order to create a premise for promoting cooperative relations in other fields Thirdly, in developing trade relations, governments are considered to be voluntary and proactive in the international commercial games Fourthly, in recent years, international trade relations have been developed at a fast pace, with a larger scale and a wider scope Fifthly, developing international trade relations is carried out on the basis of established trade relations and according to the interests and needs of the involving countryies themselves The criteria for evaluating the development of international trade relations Based on the research results of Hoang Xuan Hoa (2002) and Tran Quang Huy (2015), the author of this thesis inherits and identifies criteria to evaluate the development of international trade relations by width and by depth: Firstly, criteria by width, which evaluate development of international trade relation by the development in number of relations: The number of partners to build international trade relation with; The number of signed commitments and national agreements; The number of mechanisms to monitor and support the development of international trade relations Secondly, criteria by depth, which evaluate development of international trade relation by the quality of the relations: Structure of partners to build international trade relation; Structure of types, forms and nature of cooperation; Areas of commitments and cooperation, as well as the level of commitment in signed agreements; The influence of developing international trade relation on the country’s socio-economic development, FDI attraction and aid… In order to evaluate the development of international trade relation, the author of this thesis uses the above-mentioned criteria However, in order to see the development level of trade relation and investment, the following basic indexes can be taken into consideration: + Regarding investment relations: the number of investment projects, the scale and value of investment capital flows into the country, and other factors such as the movement of skilled workers and technology transfer… + Regarding service: growth-rate and turnovers of import-export services, structure and proportion of each type of service and market… + Regarding goods: goods import-export turnovers, growth-rate of importexport turnover, structure of import-export market, structure of import-export goods… In addition, in order to evaluate the results of developing international trade relation of goods, the author of this thesis uses the following basic indexes: Trade Intensity Index – TII TIIij = (xij/Xiw) / (xjw/Xww) In which: xij is the total export turnover of country i to country j; X jw is the total import turnover of country j; Xiw is the total export turnover of country i; Xww total export worldwide Coefficient of Revealed Comparative Advantage – RCA In which: ExA is the total export turnover of product x of country A; E A is the total export turnover of country A; Exw is the total export turnover of product x worldwide; Ew is the total export turnover worldwide Export Specialization Index – ESI In which: Xijk is the export of product k of country i to country j; X ijt is the total export of country i to country j; Mjk is the import of product k of country j; M jt is the total import of country j Trade Complementarity Index – TCI In which: Mij is the proportion of goods j in the total import of country i; X jk is the proportion of export goods j in the total export of country k Regional Orientation Index – ROI In which: xkij and xkiw is the export turnover of product k of country i to j and the world; Xij and Xiw is the export turnover of country i to j and the world If < ROI < 1: In-region export is lower than out-region export If ROI =1: In-region export is equal to out-region export If ROI >1: In-region export is higher than out-region export 1.1.2 The necessity and roles of developing international trade relations Developing international trade relations is necessary This need arises from the needs and benefits of developing trade relations with satisfaction, meeting the 10 domestic needs and development practices of the country Specifically: Firstly, there is a difference in natural resources among countries; Secondly, there is a difference in human resources and the use of human resource across countries; Thirdly, the development of science and technology; Fourthly, the level of economic development of countries For the above reasons, it can be seen that the development of trade relations plays an important role in the development of the country These roles are considered politically, diplomatically and economically In terms of political, diplomatical aspect, developing international trade relations contributes to the expansion of diplomatic relations and other external relations; empowers the nation in the international arena In terms of socio-economic aspect, developing international trade relations helps the country to gradually participate in labor division and international cooperation; efficient exploitation and use of resources; better satisfy domestic consumption needs 1.1.3 The factors that affect the development of international trade relations Regional and international factors Firstly, globalization is the main impact on the world economic development; Secondly, the trend of trade liberalization; Thirdly, the correlation between subjects in international trade relations; Fourthly, the development of science and technology and technology; Fifthly, there are new problems in international relations Finally, the economic and political development of some main countries has changed dramatically and affected the international trade relations In East Asia region, the impact of the global economic and financial crisis, followed by systemic changes over the past two decades has also made clearer the changes in policies of East Asian countries Domestic factors Firstly, the national policy of international integration (international economy); Secondly, the set of conditions for developing international relations This set of conditions includes domestic laws and policies, conditions for physical and social infrastructure, competitiveness, quantity and quality of human resources, the country’s geography location and political and diplomatic status 1.2 THE PRINCIPLES, REQUIREMENTS AND AREAS OF DEVELOPING INTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONS 1.2.1 The principles for developing international trade relations: 11 Developing trade relations that follow certain rules and requirements When participating in international trade relations, a country needs to follow a number of basic principles to ensure its rights and interests, such as: the principle of ensuring equality on sovereignty, the principle of ensuring mutual benefits and the principle of preventing other countries from interfering with its internal affairs In addition, there are other principles such as: non-discrimination in trade, ensuring sovereignty independence and territorial integrity, multilateralizing and diversifying external relations 1.2.2 The requirements for developing international trade relations: Following the principles of trade relations development, when taking specific steps and solutions to develop trade relations, governments should pay attention to specific requirements such as: developing trade relations must aim at achieving national development; developing trade relations between countries must contribute to promoting and enhancing the country’s status; creating cohesion and developing cooperation in other fields; developing trade relations based on exploiting national advantages; developing trade relations between countries should be based on existing practices and commitments; developing trade relations between countries is to exploit opportunities brought about by cooperation with partners 1.2.3 The areas for developing international trade relations: The development of international trade relation includes various points: the State gives orientation for developing international trade relation by development strategies and planning; the State provides framework for the establishment of international trade relations through negotiations and signing of FTAs; the State creates environment for developing international trade relation through the use of management tools to promote and develop international trade relations; the State organizes and assign and decentralize to implement commitments; the State provides information and disseminate the legal documents and the implementation of policies and laws on developing international trade relations However, within the scope and objective of this thesis, the author focuses on points: Firstly, the state creates the framework for establishing trade relations, which includes: Negotiating, signing cooperation agreements, bilateral and multilateral trade agreements; Participating in multilateral forums and programs in the region 12 Secondly, the state uses tools/measures to promote and develop trade relations, which includes: Establishing mechanisms for monitoring domestic trade relations development; Upgrading cooperative relations through talks, state visits, joint statements; Using policy measures to promote and develop international trade relations in all areas including trade in goods, trade in services and investment The basic policies used by the state to develop international trade relation include: international trade policy, human resource development policy, policy of infrastructure development, legal environment improvement, construction planning export production zones 1.3 INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND LESSONS FOR VIETNAM IN DEVELOPING INTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONS Through studying the experiences from China, Japan and Korea in developing trade relations, the researcher draws out some lessons for Vietnam: Firstly, change thinking about regional integration In international relations, the influence of regional and international environment is clear This change of mindset aims to facilitate and lead to adaptation in the development process Secondly, the lesson of creating framework for international trade relation: developing a strategy to sign FTAs as a foundation for the development of international trade relation; The selection of partners should take into account the complementarity of already signed WTO commitments and future partners; Actively participate in regional cooperation programs and initiatives Thirdly, the lesson of using tools/measures to promote and develop international trade relation: develop a roadmap to adjust policies; enhance the competitiveness for domestic sectors, especially those sectors/commodities that can exploit domestic advantages; promote the role of the Government and related functional departments in trade promotion and business support, implement cooperative programs with partners Chapter ANALYZING AND EVALUATING THE SITUATION OF DEVELOPING TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN VIETNAM AND EAST ASIA 2.1 SOME OVERVIEWS OF THE EAST ASIA AND THE POTENTIAL OF VIETNAM’S TRADE RELATIONS WITH THE EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES 13 2.1.1 An overview of the natural and socio-economic characteristics of East Asia region Natural chararacteristics of East Asia: The East Asia region, consisting of 19 countries and territories, is located in East Asia and is a combination of two sub-regions that are Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia Most East Asian countries are exposed to the Pacific Ocean Therefore, these countries have a favorable geographical position in international trade activities and integration into the world economy In addition, East Asian countries have abundant natural resources, especially minerals such as coal, tin, copper, oil These resources are mainly concentrated in China and ASEAN countries Socio-economic conditions of East Asia: As of February 2019, the population of East Asia is over 2.3 billion, accounting for 51% of the total Asian population and 30% of the total world population This region provides a large consumer and labor market for the world The young population of East Asia and its potentials one of the strengths of this region They are characterized by diligence, hard work, a thirst for learning and an economical way of living East Asian countries have many cultural identities, characterized by Asian culture and influenced by Confucianism Educational level in the region are is ranked quite high in the world, compared to many other regions of developing countries With a high economic growth rate compared to other regions, East Asia is currently the most dynamic economic region and one of the leaders in world economic development 2.1.2 Overview of the current status of cooperation and development of trade relations in East Asia The cooperation and development of trade relations in East Asia has been driven mainly by market forces before the 1990s of the twentieth century Since then, this process has been reinforced by initiatives related to bilateral and multilateral cooperation However, in cooperation, there are still many obstacles for development It is the difference in development level, culture, language, beliefs and ethnicity and differences in political institutions and nationalism Therefore, trade and economic development cooperation in East Asia differs from other cooperation, with political factors playing a special role in promoting the regional economic and trade cooperation 14 Regarding framework and cooperation mechanism: Programs and initiatives with diverse and rich cooperation mechanism have been proposed to support the regional integration process In addition to the framework of intra-ASEAN trade cooperation, ASEAN countries also pioneered in the development of FTAs with outsiders under the ASEAN+1, ASEAN+3 model Regional trade cooperation is also motivated by the signing of bilateral FTAs, subregional cooperation initiatives, development triangles and quadrangles, dialogue forums Regarding the level of cooperation: within the framework of regional cooperation over the past 20 years, most of the agreements have low levels of liberalization, especially sub-regional cooperation agreements and initiatives However, from 2012, with the initiation of RCEP, liberalization levels are higher than what was committed in the "ASEAN + 1" FTAs that are expected to be implemented 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 45 38 40 36 33 31 25 37 25 20 14 10 15 16 16 Figure 2.1 FTAs of East Asian countries and territories, as of February 2019 Note: The number of FTAs include signed and valid FTAs, signed but not yet in effect FTAs, negotiated or proposed FTAs East Timor and North Korea have no data Source: ADB (2019), accessed February 24, 2019, Regarding the results of cooperation: the whole region currently has over 400 FTAs, of which 173 FTAs are currently in effect and are being implemented; The regional trade scale in 2018 was US $2.34 trillion 2.1.3 Potential in developing trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries In relations with East Asian countries, it is Vietnam’s most favorable 15 condition is located in East Asia region, so there are similarities in culture, religion and favorable geographical conditions Vietnam and East Asian countries, with a long and historical links, have established a relatively stable and on-going relationship However, looking at the factors affecting the development of international trade relations, there are a number of factors such as: geographical location, resources, human resources, culture, natural resources, level of development Economic development In each of these factors, there are yet both advantages/potentials and disadvantages for Vietnam in developing trade relations with East Asian partners 2.2 ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT SITUATION OF DEVELOPING TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN VIETNAM AND EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES IN THE PERIOD OF 2007 TO NOW 2.2.1 General overview of developing trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries Firstly, regarding the setting up of a framework for establishing trade relations with East Asian countries The basis for the development of Vietnam’s trade relations with East Asia over the past years has been based on bilateral and multilateral agreements signed between the parties In addition to multilateral forums, Vietnam is also involved in regional cooperation initiatives, especially with China and ASEAN countries The areas of cooperation in these programs/initiatives are diversified and focus on the exploitation of advantages for economic and trade development, towards sustainable development Secondly, promote and develop trade relations with East Asian countries - Regarding the establishment of trade monitoring and support mechanisms: In the framework of the implementation of signed trade agreements, ASEAN and its partners have established many support and cooperation mechanisms such as: making joint statements, building an action program, conducting a summit within the framework of ASEAN cooperation with partners, organizing ministerial meetings, conducting meetings with senior officials The ministries and sectors are also actively involved in supporting domestic entities to promote trade with East Asian countries Trade disputes are often dealt with on the basis of WTO law or under the commitments of signed FTAs 16 - On the development and enhancement of cooperation relations: Of the 34 countries that have partnerships with Vietnam, there are 12 East Asian countries In cooperation with East Asian countries, along with increasing in scale and trade value, cooperation in other areas is also promoted, especially foreign direct investment The results of promoting and developing trade relations with East Asian countries are reflected in the increase in trade exchange activities, both in size and value, and in the confirmation of key position of the region (both in the political and economic sense) Figure 2.2 Vietnam’s total import-export turnover with East Asia and the world, in the 2007-2017 period Source: Vietnam Statistical Yearbooks and author’s compilation 2.2.2 Current policies to develop Vietnam’s trade relations with East Asian countries Vietnam has no separate integration orientation and trade policies in developing trade relations with East Asia Laws, integration policies, trade policies, infrastructure development policies, human resource development policies with East Asia are included in the country’ system of legal documents and policies Regarding international integration policies: Resolution No 07/NQ-TW in 2001 on international economic integration, Resolution No 08/NQ-TW in 2007 on some major guidelines and policies for the economy fast and sustainable 17 development when Vietnam is a member of the World Trade Organization, Resolution No.22/NQ-TW in 2013 on international integration, Decision No.40/QD-Ttg in 2016 on the general strategy international integration to 2020, vision to 2030 Regarding international trade policy: 30 years after “Đoi moi”, from a closed economy, Vietnam has shifted trade policy towards export and has become the country with the highest openness index in the world In most FTAs with East Asia, Vietnam has committed to abolishing about 90% of tariff lines and abolishing most quantitative restrictions Regarding human resource development policy: In the period after 2007, human resource development orientation is mentioned in the Socio-economic Development Strategy 2011-2020, Decision No.579/QD-Ttg in 2011 approving Vietnam's human resource development strategy for the period 2011-2020 Regarding laws: many legal documents are amended and supplemented In trade, many guiding documents were approved: Decision No.2471/QD-TTg on import and export strategy of goods in the period of 2011-2020, orientation to 2030, Decision No.1467/QD-TTg on developing regional markets period 2015 2020, orientation to 2030 International trade relations development differs depending on each East Asian partner within the established relations and the results obtained from commercial activities between Vietnam and each partner Therefore, in addition to the general points as mentioned in section 2.2.1 and 2.2.2, the development of trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries is further discussed in section 2.2.3 (ASEAN ), section 2.2.4 (Korea), section 2.2.5 (Japan), section 2.2.6 (China) In addition to examining points, that creating frameworks for the establishment of trade relationships and that employing tools/measures for the development of trade relationships, the thesis also analyzes the results of trade relation development through the indicators of the scale of trade, trends and trade structure 2.3 GENERAL EVALUATION OF THE TRADE RELATIONS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN VIETNAM AND EAST ASIA FROM 2007 UP TO NOW 2.3.1 Achievements in developing trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries Developing international trade relation by width: Firstly, so far, Vietnam 18 has established trade relation with all countries in the region These trade relations are established both bilaterally and multi-laterally Secondly, Vietnam has also been actively participating in regional cooperation forums and initiatives Thirdly, through the signing of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, Vietnam has created appropriate mechanism to support the development of international trade relation Fourthly, the scale of trade between Vietnam and East Asian countries has the tendency to increase rapidly Developing international trade relations by depth: Firstly, in general, the development of trade relation between Vietnam and East Asian countries is promoted in many forms, from low to high levels Secondly, in establishing the cooperative framework, Vietnam has negotiated and promoted the signing of FTAs with more and more cooperation areas Thirdly, Vietnam 's corporate governance with East Asia is considered the most developed compared to other regions Vietnamese trade agreements signed with Japan, South Korea and China are considered very open agreements Fourthly, the development of international trade relation contributes to creating and developing a variety of economic relations and cultural exchanges Fifthly, the structure of Vietnam's import and export commodities with East Asia has changed in a diversified direction but with each specific market there is a difference Justification of the achieved outcomes Vietnam: the geographical proximity and strongly-developed political and economic relations; the adjustment in foreign policy; after joining WTO, the government has made great efforts in transparency and offering solutions to take advantage of integration commitments; Vietnam’s market expansion with regional countries is an opportunity for domestic enterprises to have a better chance to participate in the regional production network, thereby exporting products can be produced and exported with a variety of types and quality East Asian countries: the diversified cooperation mechanisms promoted under the signed FTA framework and regional multilateral forums; the increase in number and quality of regional cooperation agreements have also brought Vietnam many opportunities to develop and enhance the established relationships with East Asian partners; changes in foreign policy of regional countries when focusing on East Asia 2.3.2 Short-comings and limitations of the development of trade relations between Vietnam and East Asia countries 19 Short-comings and limitations: Firstly, in the development of trade relation, Vietnam has created a variety in relations with all countries in East Asia However, the regional trade relations are currently focused on only Northeast Asian countries and some countries in ASEAN6 Secondly, the trade relation between Vietnam and East Asia still focuses mainly on bilateral relations Thirdly, the cooperation has only developed in width but has not really gone into depth Fourthly, Vietnam does not seem to have fully exploited its strengths Fifthly, the index of trade density and market share shows the relatively small proportion of goods flow from Vietnam exported to or imported from these markets Sixthly, the prevailing situation with Vietnam is an increase in trade deficit from East Asia Reasons for short-comings and limitations: Vietnam: Vietnam’s integration inside the region is very slow, even very weak; inadequacies in policy mechanisms and implementation and lack of specific policies for each major and important partner in East Asia; the inadequacies in some sectors in order to be more effective in integration and development of trade relation; the cooperation of Vietnam with the relevant bodies of the partner countries in solving problems arising from the practice of trade relations is still slow; the import-export policy is too focused on rapid and development; Vietnam’s trade deficit with East Asian countries mainly derives from the structure of import and export goods and the similarity of this trade structure when competing with other countries in the area; competitiveness of Vietnam’s products and businesses are still low East Asia: the East Asia region has many contradictions and is prone to conflict; the foreign policies of some of the major regional countries are constantly changing and the "conservatives" of nationalism in these countries in the context of competition in order to increase influence and leadership in the region; three markets with strong trade relations with Vietnam (China, Japan and Korea) tend to adjust different trade policies Chapter VIEWPOINTS, ORIENTATIONS AND SOME SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN VIETNAM AND EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES, VISION TO 2030 3.1 CONTEXTS THAT AFFECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN VIETNAM AND THE EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES, VISION TO 2030 20 3.1.1 The international and regional context affecting the development of trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries by 2030 International context: The strong development of science and technology has been and will be affecting all countries in the world, including Vietnam; global issues, especially the increasingly unpredictable impact of global climate change; globalization and international economic integration are still the main impact on the world economic development, although the recent resistance against it is increasing; Political and military instability is still complicated in some areas, adversely affecting the global as well as national socio-economic development; Regional context: Change in policies of major countries towards the region; new features of international trade between East Asian countries; Asia-Pacific cooperation and cooperation trend and negotiation and signing of new generation FTAs in the region; 3.1.2 Domestic context affecting the development of trade relation between Vietnam and East Asia by 2030 The domestic context is recognized from the reality of Vietnam's renovation process over the past time as well as the international integration process of Vietnam since 2015 From this context, the thesis points out some opportunities and the main challenge Vietnam needs to address in the development of trade relation with East Asian countries by 2030 3.2 VIEWPOINTS AND ORIENTATIONS FOR DEVELOPING TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN VIETNAM AND THE EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES TO 2030 The viewpoint and orientation for developing Vietnam’s trade relations with East Asia to 2030 stated in the thesis is based on the Party’s guidelines for international integration and some specific guiding documents in each period Some guideline documents include: Resolution No 07/NQ-TW on “International Economic Integration”, Resolution No 08/NQ-TW on “Some major guidelines and policies for the economy fast and sustainable development when Vietnam is a member of the World Trade Organization “, Resolution No 22/NQ-TW on” International Integration “, Decision No 40/QD-TTg on ”General Strategy International Integration to 2020, vision to 2030 ” From this point of view, the orientation and objectives of developing 21 Vietnam’s trade relations with East Asia need to be in line with a number of guiding documents of the State such as Decision No 2471/QD-TTg dated December 28, 2011 approving “Import and Export Strategy of Goods in the period of 2011-2020, Orientation to 2030”, Decision No 1467/QD-TTg dated August 24, 2011 approving “Scheme of Developing Regional Markets period 2015 - 2020, orientation to 2030 ” In addition, the development of trade relations between Vietnam and East Asia needs to be consistent with the characteristics and situation in each regional market The development orientation of trade relations between Vietnam and East Asia in the coming time is to diversify, improve efficiency and bring trade relations into reality, enhance Vietnam’s position and serve country development goals 3.3 SOME SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN VIETNAM AND EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES, VISION TO 2030 3.3.1 General solutions Regarding the framework for developing trade relations between Vietnam East Asia: This is a group of macro solutions with the role and responsibility of the state in creating the framework and foundation for developing trade relations in the context stated in 3.1 Recommendations: + Develop comprehensive cooperation framework and go deep with East Asian countries; + Promote negotiations with countries in East Asia; + Enhance the two-way governmental exchange of information, well handle trade barriers and problems arising in trade relations with East Asia The solution group to promote and develop trade relations between Vietnam and East Asia: This group of solutions relates to the improvement of mechanisms and policies to facilitate the commercial activities of Vietnam with East Asian countries as well as solve the problems posed from trade relation development practices In this group of solutions, the state needs to: + Enhance the effectiveness of Vietnam - East Asia cooperation; + Developing human resources to serve the integration needs in general and developing trade relations with East Asian countries; + Effectively implement international integration policies in developing trade relations with East Asian countries; 22 + Improve Vietnam’s trade deficit with East Asian countries; Improve the competitiveness of Vietnamese goods and businesses; + Good implementation of trade promotion and promotion of the role of Vietnamese representative missions abroad; + Establish support mechanisms for domestic trade entities in implementing commitments 3.3.2 Solutions with each East Asia partners The thesis offers solutions to the following partners in East Asia: China, Japan, Korea and ASEAN 3.3.3 Some conditional solutions In order to implement the above solutions, the thesis makes a number of conditional recommendations to the government and line ministries Specifically: continuing breakthroughs in innovation of integration thinking; raising social awareness about the integration and development of trade relations in the new context; promoting reform of the business environment to create a favorable environment for entities in the economy; strengthening the unity of awareness and action, leadership and direction of government and related ministries in developing trade relations in general and developing trade relations with East Asian countries in particular; strengthening assignment, decentralization and coordination in management, associated with strengthening the responsibilities of departments, associated with regular inspection work 23 CONCLUSION In the context of strong globalization and regionalization, most countries in the world choose to integrate and develop trade relations In the world and in Vietnam, there have been many studies on trade relations and established theoretical foundation for developing trade relations between countries However, there has not been much research on developing Vietnam trade relations with East Asian countries and developing a theoretical framework for developing trade relations for a developing country with regional partners, on an economic management approach This is the research gap that the thesis defines and implements The thesis contributes to systematizing and perfecting the theoretical basis for developing trade relations between countries On the basis of the established theoretical framework, the thesis studies the situation of developing trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries from 2007 up to now, and indicates that the results of developing trade relations between Vietnam and East Asia are reflected in the promotion of relations in various forms and levels, establishing the framework for developing trade relations and creating mechanisms to support and promote the development of trade relations, increasing trade scale, and developing various economic relations, cultural exchanges, FDI etc In addition, the thesis also points out the limitations in organizing the implementation of policies, coordinating to resolve disagreements as well as limitations from commercial practices To solve these shortcomings, the thesis proposes some solutions to develop Vietnam - East Asia trade relations till 2030: building a comprehensive framework of cooperation and deepening the relationship with East Asia countries, promoting negotiations with East Asian countries, conducting two-way communication at government level, developing human resources, addressing trade deficit, collaborating to promote trade effectively, etc Although achieving some of the successes mentioned above, there still has some limitations unsolved with limited research conditions in the thesis However, the thesis is an independent study and has a certain reference value for students, researchers, managers related to the field of international trade and international trade relations % 24 PUBLICATIONS BY RESEARCHER/AUTHOR RELATED TO THE THESIS Duong Hoang Anh (2012), ‘Export of Vietnamese Goods to Japan after years of Implementing VJEPA’, Economy & Forecast Review, No 21/2012 (533), p.24-26 Duong Hoang Anh (2012), ‘Trade of Vietnamese Seafood Products to Japan Market After Years of Implementing VJEPA’, Journal of Economic Studies, No 414 - November 2012, p.38-45 Duong Hoang Anh, Pham Thi Du (2013), “Vietnam - Japan Bilateral Trade Relations for the period of 2003-2013”, rd International Conference “International Integration: Achievements and Problems Raised”, Thuongmai University, p.626-640 Duong Hoang Anh, Pham Thi Du (2013), “Integration of Logistics Services in ASEAN - Issues Raised with Vietnam”, rd International Conference “International Integration: Achievements and Problems Raised”, Thuongmai University, p.196-208 Duong Hoang Anh (2014), ‘Development of Vietnam-Korea Trade Partnership”, Economy & Forecast Review, No 14, July 2014, p.59-61 Duong Hoang Anh, Duong Thuy Duong (2015), ‘Development of VietnamChina Border Trade’, International Conference on “Building a Maritime Silk Road and Cross-Border Cooperation China-Vietnam” in Longzhou, China, p.154-178 Duong Hoang Anh, Duong Thuy Duong (2016), ‘落落 落落 落落 落落 落落 落落 落落 落 落 落 落 落 落 落 落 落 落 落 ’ , International Conference “Managing Dynamic Changes on Asian Business and Economic”, Chiayi, Taiwan Duong Hoang Anh (2017), ‘Vietnam’s Seafood Exports to Republic of Korea After More Than One Year of Implementation Vietnam - Korea Free Trade Agreement (VKFTA)’, The 3rd International Conference on Asia Trade, Laos Ha Van Su (chief editor), Duong Hoang Anh, Nguyen Thi Thu Hien (2019), Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and the Ability to Transfer Foreign Direct Investment into Vietnam, Reference book, National Economics University Publishing House ... Vietnam – EU Trade Relations”, Trinh Thi Thanh Thuy (2007) in "The Process of Developing Trade Relation between Vietnam and Russia in the Context of International Economic Integration", Tran Quang... between Vietnam and some neighboring countries, namely Japan, South Korea, China and ASEAN, which have official cooperation with Vietnam and are major partners with strong influence on Vietnam’s trade,... No.2471/QD-TTg on import and export strategy of goods in the period of 2011-2020, orientation to 2030, Decision No.1467/QD-TTg on developing regional markets period 2015 2020, orientation to 2030 International