Pension Fund Risk Management: Financial and Actuarial Modeling
Contents
Preface
Editors
Marco Micocci
Greg N. Gregoriou
Giovanni B. Masala
Contributor Bios
Laura Andreu
Pablo Antolin
María del Carmen Boado-Penas
Dirk Broeders
Giuseppina Cannas
Ricardo Matos Chaim
Bill Shih-Chieh Chang
Marcin Fedor
Wilma de Groot,
Werner Hürlimann
Evan Ya-Wen Hwang
Gregorio Impavido
Ricardo Josa Fombellida
Paul John Marcel Klumpes,
Theo Kocken
Anne de Kreuk
Susanna Levantesi
Yong Li
Weixi Liu
David A. Love
Ferdinand Mager
Stuart Manson
Carmen-Pilar Martí-Ballester,
Massimiliano Menzietti
Nikolaos T. Milonas
Cristina Ortiz
Gaobo Pang,
George A. Papachristou
Auke Plantinga
Diego Prior-Jiménez,
Marc Pröpper
Theodore A. Roupas
José Luis Sarto
Christian Schmieder
Ole Settergren
Paul A. Smith
Charles Sutcliffe
Laurens Swinkels,
Ian Tonks
Tiziana Torri
Luis Vicente
Carlos Vidal-Meliá
Mark J. Warshawsky,
Ben Weitzer
Shane Francis Whelan,
Aihua Zhang
Contributors
Part I: Financial Risk Management
Chapter 1: Quantifying Investment Risk in Pension Funds
1.1 INTRODUCTION
1.2 DEFINING INVESTMENT RISK
1.3 CASE STUDIES ESTIMATING INVESTMENT RISK
1.3.1 Pension Saving, Person Aged 55 Years and Over
1.3.2 Case Study 1: Measurement of Investment Risk in Pension Funds—Termination Liability
1.3.3 Case Study 2: Measurement of Investment Risk in Pension Funds—Ongoing Liabilities
1.3.4 Summary of Findings
1.4 TIME DIVERSIFICATION OF RISK ARGUMENT
1.5 CONCLUSION
APPENDIX
1.A.1 LIMITATIONS OF PROPOSED DEFINITION OF INVESTMENT VARIATION (AND THE ASSOCIATED INVESTMENT RISK)
1.A.2 CASE STUDY 1 WHEN PENSION LIABILITY DUE TO A 30 YEAR OLD
1.A.3 CASE STUDY 2 WHEN PENSION LIABILITY DUE TO 30 YEAR OLD
REFERENCES
Chapter 2: Investment Decision in Defined Contribution Pension Schemes Incorporating Incentive Mechanism
Chapter 3: Performance and Risk Measurement for Pension Funds
3.1 INTRODUCTION
3.2 LIABILITY-DRIVEN INVESTING AND PENSION LIABILITIES
3.3 LIABILITY-DRIVEN RISK AND PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION
3.4 AN APPLICATION OF THE MODEL
3.5 CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION
REFERENCES
Chapter 4: Pension Funds under Inflation Risk
Chapter 5: Mean–Variance Management in Stochastic Aggregated Pension Funds with Nonconstant Interest Rate
Chapter 6: Dynamic Asset and Liability Management
6.1 INTRODUCTION
6.2 MODELING OF PENSION FUND DYNAMICS
6.3 ASSET/LIABILITY MANAGEMENT
6.4 PENSION FUND GOVERNANCE
6.5 POPULATIONAL DYNAMICS
6.6 MULTI-PARADIGM APPROACH TO GET A DYNAMIC ALM MODEL
6.6.1 Prospective and Retrospective Scenario Analyses
6.6.2 Multi-Criteria Analysis for a Decision-Making Process
6.6.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process
6.6.4 Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical-Based Evaluation Technique (Macbeth)
6.6.5 Agent-Based Combined System Dynamics Models
6.6.6 Agent-Based Modeling and Fuzzy Logic
6.6.7 Bayes Theorem
6.6.8 Monte Carlo Simulation
6.6.9 Markov Chains
6.7 MATHEMATICAL PROVISION SIMULATION
6.8 CONCLUSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
REFERENCES
Chapter 7: Pension Fund Asset Allocation under Uncertainty
Chapter 8: Different Stakeholders’ Risks in DB Pension Funds
Chapter 9: Financial Risk in Pension Funds: Application of Value at Risk Methodology
Chapter 10: Pension Scheme Asset Allocation with Taxation Arbitrage, Risk Sharing, and Default Insurance
Part II: Technical Risk Management
Chapter 11: Longevity Risk and Private Pensions
Chapter 12: Actuarial Funding of Dismissal and Resignation Risks
12.1 INTRODUCTION
12.2 DISMISSAL AND RESIGNATION CAUSES OF DECREMENT
12.2.1 Dismissal by the Employer
12.2.2 Resignation by the Employee
12.2.3 Death of the Employee
12.2.4 Survival to the Retirement Age
12.3 ASSET AND LIABILITY MODEL FOR DISMISSAL FUNDING
12.4 DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC EVOLUTION OF THE DISMISSAL FUND RANDOM WEALTH
12.5 THE PROBABILITY OF INSOLVENCY: A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
Chapter 13: Retirement Decision: Current Influences on the Timing of Retirement among Older Workers
Chapter 14: Insuring Defined Benefit Plans in Germany
14.1 INTRODUCTION
14.2 PENSIONS-SICHERUNGS-VEREIN VVAG IN GERMANY
14.3 RISK PROFILE OF THE PSVAG
14.4 RISK-ADJUSTED PREMIUMS BASED ON THE U.K. MODEL
14.5 CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
Chapter 15: The Securitization of Longevity Risk in Pension Schemes: The Case of Italy
15.1 INTRODUCTION
15.2 STOCHASTIC MORTALITY MODEL
15.3 LONGEVITY RISK SECURITIZATION
15.4 PRICING MODEL
15.5 NUMERICAL APPLICATION
15.6 CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
Part III: Regulation and Solvency Topics
Chapter 16: Corporate Risk Management and Pension Asset Allocation
Chapter 17: Competition among Pressure Groups over the Determination of U.K. Pension Fund Accounting Rules
17.1 INTRODUCTION
17.2 THEORETICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL BACKGROUND
17.3 COMPETITION AMONG PRESSURE GROUPS FOR POLITICAL INFLUENCE
17.4 DATA SELECTION AND VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS
17.5 EMPIRICAL TESTS
17.6 CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
Chapter 18: Improving the Equity, Transparency, and Solvency of Pay-as-You-Go Pension Systems: NDCs, the AB, and ABMs
18.1 INTRODUCTION
18.2 NOTIONAL DEFINED CONTRIBUTION ACCOUNTS (NDCs)
18.3 ACTUARIAL BALANCE OF THE PAYG SYSTEM
18.3.1 The Swedish Model
18.3.2 The U.S. Model
18.4 AUTOMATIC BALANCE MECHANISM (ABMs)
18.4.1 Sweden
18.4.2 Canada
18.4.3 Germany
18.4.4 Japan
18.4.5 Finland
18.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX 18.A.1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FORMULAE FOR CALCULATING RETIREMENT PENSION IN PAYG SYSTEMS
APPENDIX 18.A.2 CONTRIBUTION ASSET FOR THE CASE OF SWEDEN
APPENDIX 18.A.3 PENSION LIABILITIES
APPENDIX 18.A. 4 THE ACTUARIAL BALANCE FOR THE CASE OF THE UNITED STATES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
Chapter 19: Risk-Based Supervision of Pension Funds in the Netherlands
19.1 INTRODUCTION
19.2 DUTCH PENSION SYSTEM AND SOLVENCY REGULATION
19.2.1 Objectives of Prudential Pension Fund Supervision in the Netherlands
19.2.2 Prudential Supervision
19.2.3 Risk and Time
19.2.4 Financial Assessment Framework
19.3 MARK-TO-MARKET VALUATION
19.3.1 Valuation of Defined Benefit Liabilities
19.3.2 Valuation of Contingent Liabilities
19.3.3 Term Structure of Interest Rates
19.3.4 Valuation of Assets
19.3.5 Contribution Policy
19.4 RISK-BASED SOLVENCY REQUIREMENTS
19.5 CONTINUITY ANALYSIS
19.5.1 Parameters
19.5.2 Risk and Outcome Distributions
19.5.3 Different Functions of the Continuity Analysis
19.5.4 Insight into Indexation
19.6 CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
REFERENCES
Chapter 20: Policy Considerations for Hedging Risks in Mandatory Defined Contribution Pensions through Better Default Options
20.1 INTRODUCTION
20.2 INVESTMENT CHOICE AND DEFAULT OPTIONS
20.3 CURRENT RULES AND DESIGN: RATIONALE AND PROBLEMS
20.3.1 Minor Design Limitations
20.3.2 The Need to Actively Manage Portfolios
20.3.3 Evidence of Gaps in Asset Manager Behavior in Chile
20.3.4 Inadequate Consideration of Key Background Risks
20.4 RECONNECTING THE ACCUMULATION AND DECUMULATION PHASES
20.4.1 Target Annuitization Funds
20.4.2 Identifying the Long-Term Investment Target
20.4.3 Construction of Liability-Driven Investment Strategies
20.4.4 Funded Position of the Individual Participant and Endogenous Contributions
20.5 CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX: LIABILITY-DRIVEN INVESTMENT STRATEGIES FOR DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PLANS: HOW ARE THEY IMPLEMENTED?
REFERENCES
Chapter 21: Pension Risk and Household Saving over the Life Cycle
Part IV: International Experience in Pension Fund Risk Management
Chapter 22: Public and Private DC Pension Schemes, Termination Indemnities, and Optimal Funding of Pension System in Italy
22.1 INTRODUCTION
22.2 OPTIMAL PRIVATE/PUBLIC PENSION MIX
22.3 OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION IN OCCUPATIONAL PENSION FUNDS
22.4 ROLE OF THE TERMINATION INDEMNITY SCHEME
22.5 CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
Chapter 23: Efficiency Analysis in the Spanish Pension Funds Industry: A Frontier Approach
23.1 INTRODUCTION
23.2 LITERATURE REVIEW
23.3 ADDITIVE MODELS IN DEA
23.4 DEFINITION OF VARIABLES AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF THE DATA
23.5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
23.6 CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
Chapter 24: Pension Funds under Investment Constraints: An Assessment of the Opportunity Cost to the Greek Social Security System
24.1 INTRODUCTION
24.2 THE GREEK SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM
24.2.1 Basic Characteristics of the Greek Social Security System
24.2.2 Recent Major Reforms in the Greek Social Security System
24.2.3 Role of Fund Reserves, Investment Restrictions, and Regulation
24.3 DATA AND METHODOLOGY
24.4 INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT YIELDS UNDER FIXED AND FLOATING RATES REGIMES
24.5 EMPIRICAL RESULTS
24.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
Chapter 25: Pension Fund Deficits and Stock Market Efficiency: Evidence from the United Kingdom
25.1 INTRODUCTION
25.2 RELATED RESEARCH ON THE STOCK MARKET REACTION TO PENSION DEFICITS
25.3 MODEL SPECIFICATIONS
25.4 DATA
25.5 ESTIMATION OF MARKET VALUATION MODELS
25.6 ESTIMATION FOR THE ASSET PRICING MODELS
25.7 CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX: VARIABLE DEFINITIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
Chapter 26: Return-Based Style Analysis Applied to Spanish Balanced Pension Plans
Pension Fund Risk Management: Financial and Actuarial Modeling
Contents
Preface
Editors
Marco Micocci
Greg N. Gregoriou
Giovanni B. Masala
Contributor Bios
Laura Andreu
Pablo Antolin
María del Carmen Boado-Penas
Dirk Broeders
Giuseppina Cannas
Ricardo Matos Chaim
Bill Shih-Chieh Chang
Marcin Fedor
Wilma de Groot,
Werner Hürlimann
Evan Ya-Wen Hwang
Gregorio Impavido
Ricardo Josa Fombellida
Paul John Marcel Klumpes,
Theo Kocken
Anne de Kreuk
Susanna Levantesi
Yong Li
Weixi Liu
David A. Love
Ferdinand Mager
Stuart Manson
Carmen-Pilar Martí-Ballester,
Massimiliano Menzietti
Nikolaos T. Milonas
Cristina Ortiz
Gaobo Pang,
George A. Papachristou
Auke Plantinga
Diego Prior-Jiménez,
Marc Pröpper
Theodore A. Roupas
José Luis Sarto
Christian Schmieder
Ole Settergren
Paul A. Smith
Charles Sutcliffe
Laurens Swinkels,
Ian Tonks
Tiziana Torri
Luis Vicente
Carlos Vidal-Meliá
Mark J. Warshawsky,
Ben Weitzer
Shane Francis Whelan,
Aihua Zhang
Contributors
Part I: Financial Risk Management
Chapter 1: Quantifying Investment Risk in Pension Funds
1.1 INTRODUCTION
1.2 DEFINING INVESTMENT RISK
1.3 CASE STUDIES ESTIMATING INVESTMENT RISK
1.3.1 Pension Saving, Person Aged 55 Years and Over
1.3.2 Case Study 1: Measurement of Investment Risk in Pension Funds—Termination Liability
1.3.3 Case Study 2: Measurement of Investment Risk in Pension Funds—Ongoing Liabilities
1.3.4 Summary of Findings
1.4 TIME DIVERSIFICATION OF RISK ARGUMENT
1.5 CONCLUSION
APPENDIX
1.A.1 LIMITATIONS OF PROPOSED DEFINITION OF INVESTMENT VARIATION (AND THE ASSOCIATED INVESTMENT RISK)
1.A.2 CASE STUDY 1 WHEN PENSION LIABILITY DUE TO A 30 YEAR OLD
1.A.3 CASE STUDY 2 WHEN PENSION LIABILITY DUE TO 30 YEAR OLD
REFERENCES
Chapter 2: Investment Decision in Defined Contribution Pension Schemes Incorporating Incentive Mechanism
Chapter 3: Performance and Risk Measurement for Pension Funds
3.1 INTRODUCTION
3.2 LIABILITY-DRIVEN INVESTING AND PENSION LIABILITIES
3.3 LIABILITY-DRIVEN RISK AND PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION
3.4 AN APPLICATION OF THE MODEL
3.5 CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION
REFERENCES
Chapter 4: Pension Funds under Inflation Risk
Chapter 5: Mean–Variance Management in Stochastic Aggregated Pension Funds with Nonconstant Interest Rate
Chapter 6: Dynamic Asset and Liability Management
6.1 INTRODUCTION
6.2 MODELING OF PENSION FUND DYNAMICS
6.3 ASSET/LIABILITY MANAGEMENT
6.4 PENSION FUND GOVERNANCE
6.5 POPULATIONAL DYNAMICS
6.6 MULTI-PARADIGM APPROACH TO GET A DYNAMIC ALM MODEL
6.6.1 Prospective and Retrospective Scenario Analyses
6.6.2 Multi-Criteria Analysis for a Decision-Making Process
6.6.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process
6.6.4 Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical-Based Evaluation Technique (Macbeth)
6.6.5 Agent-Based Combined System Dynamics Models
6.6.6 Agent-Based Modeling and Fuzzy Logic
6.6.7 Bayes Theorem
6.6.8 Monte Carlo Simulation
6.6.9 Markov Chains
6.7 MATHEMATICAL PROVISION SIMULATION
6.8 CONCLUSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
REFERENCES
Chapter 7: Pension Fund Asset Allocation under Uncertainty
Chapter 8: Different Stakeholders’ Risks in DB Pension Funds
Chapter 9: Financial Risk in Pension Funds: Application of Value at Risk Methodology
Chapter 10: Pension Scheme Asset Allocation with Taxation Arbitrage, Risk Sharing, and Default Insurance
Part II: Technical Risk Management
Chapter 11: Longevity Risk and Private Pensions
Chapter 12: Actuarial Funding of Dismissal and Resignation Risks
12.1 INTRODUCTION
12.2 DISMISSAL AND RESIGNATION CAUSES OF DECREMENT
12.2.1 Dismissal by the Employer
12.2.2 Resignation by the Employee
12.2.3 Death of the Employee
12.2.4 Survival to the Retirement Age
12.3 ASSET AND LIABILITY MODEL FOR DISMISSAL FUNDING
12.4 DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC EVOLUTION OF THE DISMISSAL FUND RANDOM WEALTH
12.5 THE PROBABILITY OF INSOLVENCY: A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
Chapter 13: Retirement Decision: Current Influences on the Timing of Retirement among Older Workers
Chapter 14: Insuring Defined Benefit Plans in Germany
14.1 INTRODUCTION
14.2 PENSIONS-SICHERUNGS-VEREIN VVAG IN GERMANY
14.3 RISK PROFILE OF THE PSVAG
14.4 RISK-ADJUSTED PREMIUMS BASED ON THE U.K. MODEL
14.5 CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
Chapter 15: The Securitization of Longevity Risk in Pension Schemes: The Case of Italy
15.1 INTRODUCTION
15.2 STOCHASTIC MORTALITY MODEL
15.3 LONGEVITY RISK SECURITIZATION
15.4 PRICING MODEL
15.5 NUMERICAL APPLICATION
15.6 CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
Part III: Regulation and Solvency Topics
Chapter 16: Corporate Risk Management and Pension Asset Allocation
Chapter 17: Competition among Pressure Groups over the Determination of U.K. Pension Fund Accounting Rules
17.1 INTRODUCTION
17.2 THEORETICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL BACKGROUND
17.3 COMPETITION AMONG PRESSURE GROUPS FOR POLITICAL INFLUENCE
17.4 DATA SELECTION AND VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS
17.5 EMPIRICAL TESTS
17.6 CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
Chapter 18: Improving the Equity, Transparency, and Solvency of Pay-as-You-Go Pension Systems: NDCs, the AB, and ABMs
18.1 INTRODUCTION
18.2 NOTIONAL DEFINED CONTRIBUTION ACCOUNTS (NDCs)
18.3 ACTUARIAL BALANCE OF THE PAYG SYSTEM
18.3.1 The Swedish Model
18.3.2 The U.S. Model
18.4 AUTOMATIC BALANCE MECHANISM (ABMs)
18.4.1 Sweden
18.4.2 Canada
18.4.3 Germany
18.4.4 Japan
18.4.5 Finland
18.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX 18.A.1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FORMULAE FOR CALCULATING RETIREMENT PENSION IN PAYG SYSTEMS
APPENDIX 18.A.2 CONTRIBUTION ASSET FOR THE CASE OF SWEDEN
APPENDIX 18.A.3 PENSION LIABILITIES
APPENDIX 18.A. 4 THE ACTUARIAL BALANCE FOR THE CASE OF THE UNITED STATES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
Chapter 19: Risk-Based Supervision of Pension Funds in the Netherlands
19.1 INTRODUCTION
19.2 DUTCH PENSION SYSTEM AND SOLVENCY REGULATION
19.2.1 Objectives of Prudential Pension Fund Supervision in the Netherlands
19.2.2 Prudential Supervision
19.2.3 Risk and Time
19.2.4 Financial Assessment Framework
19.3 MARK-TO-MARKET VALUATION
19.3.1 Valuation of Defined Benefit Liabilities
19.3.2 Valuation of Contingent Liabilities
19.3.3 Term Structure of Interest Rates
19.3.4 Valuation of Assets
19.3.5 Contribution Policy
19.4 RISK-BASED SOLVENCY REQUIREMENTS
19.5 CONTINUITY ANALYSIS
19.5.1 Parameters
19.5.2 Risk and Outcome Distributions
19.5.3 Different Functions of the Continuity Analysis
19.5.4 Insight into Indexation
19.6 CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
REFERENCES
Chapter 20: Policy Considerations for Hedging Risks in Mandatory Defined Contribution Pensions through Better Default Options
20.1 INTRODUCTION
20.2 INVESTMENT CHOICE AND DEFAULT OPTIONS
20.3 CURRENT RULES AND DESIGN: RATIONALE AND PROBLEMS
20.3.1 Minor Design Limitations
20.3.2 The Need to Actively Manage Portfolios
20.3.3 Evidence of Gaps in Asset Manager Behavior in Chile
20.3.4 Inadequate Consideration of Key Background Risks
20.4 RECONNECTING THE ACCUMULATION AND DECUMULATION PHASES
20.4.1 Target Annuitization Funds
20.4.2 Identifying the Long-Term Investment Target
20.4.3 Construction of Liability-Driven Investment Strategies
20.4.4 Funded Position of the Individual Participant and Endogenous Contributions
20.5 CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX: LIABILITY-DRIVEN INVESTMENT STRATEGIES FOR DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PLANS: HOW ARE THEY IMPLEMENTED?
REFERENCES
Chapter 21: Pension Risk and Household Saving over the Life Cycle
Part IV: International Experience in Pension Fund Risk Management
Chapter 22: Public and Private DC Pension Schemes, Termination Indemnities, and Optimal Funding of Pension System in Italy
22.1 INTRODUCTION
22.2 OPTIMAL PRIVATE/PUBLIC PENSION MIX
22.3 OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION IN OCCUPATIONAL PENSION FUNDS
22.4 ROLE OF THE TERMINATION INDEMNITY SCHEME
22.5 CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
Chapter 23: Efficiency Analysis in the Spanish Pension Funds Industry: A Frontier Approach
23.1 INTRODUCTION
23.2 LITERATURE REVIEW
23.3 ADDITIVE MODELS IN DEA
23.4 DEFINITION OF VARIABLES AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF THE DATA
23.5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
23.6 CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
Chapter 24: Pension Funds under Investment Constraints: An Assessment of the Opportunity Cost to the Greek Social Security System
24.1 INTRODUCTION
24.2 THE GREEK SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM
24.2.1 Basic Characteristics of the Greek Social Security System
24.2.2 Recent Major Reforms in the Greek Social Security System
24.2.3 Role of Fund Reserves, Investment Restrictions, and Regulation
24.3 DATA AND METHODOLOGY
24.4 INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT YIELDS UNDER FIXED AND FLOATING RATES REGIMES
24.5 EMPIRICAL RESULTS
24.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
Chapter 25: Pension Fund Deficits and Stock Market Efficiency: Evidence from the United Kingdom
25.1 INTRODUCTION
25.2 RELATED RESEARCH ON THE STOCK MARKET REACTION TO PENSION DEFICITS
25.3 MODEL SPECIFICATIONS
25.4 DATA
25.5 ESTIMATION OF MARKET VALUATION MODELS
25.6 ESTIMATION FOR THE ASSET PRICING MODELS
25.7 CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX: VARIABLE DEFINITIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
Chapter 26: Return-Based Style Analysis Applied to Spanish Balanced Pension Plans