Nghiên cứu tác động của chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế đến việc làm trong quá trình tăng trưởng kinh tế ở việt nam tt tiếng anh

VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES NGUYEN THI DONG RESEARCHING THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC SECTORAL RESTRUCTURING ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE PROCESS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM PHÁT TRIỂN HỢP TÁC XÃ VẬN TÀI THỦY-BỘ NỘI ĐỊA Ở ĐỒNG BẰNG SÔNG CỬU LONG Major: Code : Development Economic 9.31.01.05 SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Hahà ộ HANOI - 2019 The thesis is completed at: GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Supervisors: Assos Prof Dr Nguyen Quoc Te Assos Prof Dr Nguyen Van Luan Referee 1: Assos Prof Dr Nguyen Chien Thang Referee 2: Assos Prof Dr Nguyen Thi Nguyet Referee 3: Assos Prof Dr Ngo Tuan Nghia The dissertation will be examined by Examination Board of Academy, at: Graduate Academy of Social Sciences The thesis can be found at: - Graduate Academy of Social Sciences’ Library - National Library INTRODUCTION Necessity of the research After a serious domestic socio-economic crisis in the 1980s, Vietnam decided to comprehensively innovate economic thinking The main content of innovation is to abandon the planned economic mechanism and move to the market mechanism with state management Only less than 10 years after “Doi Moi”, Vietnam has made a strong transition, from being an embargoed and surrounded country, it has become one of the world's top food exporters Taking advantage of this development, in 2001, the Ninth Congress of the Vietnamese Communist Party set the goal that Vietnam will basically become a modern industrialized country by 2020 However, 15 years later, at the 11th session of the 13th National Assembly, the National Assembly’s resolution admitted that the plan had failed Vietnam’s failure to achieve the goal of becoming a modern industrial country by 2020 is due to various reasons One of the reasons that can be mentioned is that the selection of growth model in Vietnam in this period is not clear Although Vietnam set a target to become an industrialized country by 2020, Vietnam did not provide specific orientations to implement it thouroughly The most important goal that Vietnamese economy targets in each year and every five-year plan is stil GDP growth – an index that is not much related to the speed of industrialization of the country There seems to be satisfaction with high growth in the past but there is no good preparation for dealing with difficulties, which has made Vietnam fall into a “middle income trap” Reality shows that while digital resources are growing rapidly, Vietnam is still trying to rely on natural resources to boost the economy Therefore, after 30 years of “Doi Moi”, Vietnam’s economic sectoral structure has shifted towards reducing the rate of agriculture, increase the rate of industry, but this change is still slow, in which the number of unskilled jobs is very high How does Vietnam get closer to the goal of becoming a modern industrialized country? Perhaps the first thing Vietnam should is to aim for a new growth model: growth based on labor productivity, associated with creating more high quality jobs on the whole society There are many factors affecting employment and labor productivity growth However, depending on the different stages of development of the economy, one or several factors will become the key factor In the current period, economic structural change can be considered a leverage element that stimulates employment growth Accordingly, when economic structure is shifted reasonably, similar to the development of the world economy, labor productivity achieved in each economic sector will be increased, jobs will be transformed and increased both in quanlity and quantity Moreover, the trend of deep globalization and revolution of technology 4.0 with versions 4.1 and 4.2 is changing the way of structural transformation of any economy in the connection with global value chains In the coming time, the industry structure will be more closely linked with the technological structure, meanwhile, digital conversion is always considered as a direct influence on the labor force, but its effect has never been quantified Therefore, the relationship between economic sectoral structural transformation and employment is considered a complex relationship, but this may be the key to helping the economy achieve its goal of becoming an industrial country in the shortest possible time, so the author has chosen the topic “Researching the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on employment in the process of economic growth in Vietnam” as the research content for the doctoral dissertation in development economic Objectives and research tasks of the thesis 2.1.1 Overall objectives The basic objective of the thesis is to research the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on employment On that basis, the thesis proposes scientific-based solutions to promote restructuring process towards creating more quality jobs in Vietnam 2.1.2 Research tasks To accomplish the research objectives, the thesis offers specific tasks: - Firstly, scientifically systematize the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment; - Secondly, using Granger causality test to determine whether the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment in Vietnam is one-way or two-way causality; - Thirdly, after implementing the Granger test, the expected result is one-way causality, the thesis will continue to use quantitative methods to evaluate the contribution of economic sectoral restructuring to employment in Vietnam in two aspects: the number of jobs and labor productivity; - Fourthly, propose some solutions and policy suggestions to stimulate restructuring process in Vietnam towards creating more and more effective jobs for society Object and scope of research 3.1 Research object The research object of the thesis is to study the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment 3.2 Research scope In terms of space: the thesis studies this relationship in the whole territory of Vietnam In particular, employment is analyzed in two aspects: labor productivity and number of jobs in the economy; the economic structure is divided into regions and 17 sectors In terms of time: the thesis focuses on analyzing the situation of Vietnam’s economy in the period of 1991 – 2017 and comparing it with some other countries in the period that has the same development level as Vietnam In terms of content: the thesis focuses on analyzing the relationship between employment and economic restructuring by sectors as it is considered a “pillar” structure It reflects the level of science and technology development, production force development and social labor division Moreover, the economic structure by region and by composition in each country is very different Data collection for these two types of structures is also not reflected in international statistics, so it is difficult in quantitative research as well as comparing the level of transfer between Vietnam and other countries 4 Methodology and research methods The thesis uses the following research methods: dialectical method; abstracting science method; descriptive statistics method; comparative method and econometric method For the econometric method, the dissertation uses three specific methods: (1) Granger causality test is used to measure the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment; (2) Vector method and elasticity coefficient are used to consider the impact of economic sectoral structuring on the number of jobs in the economy; (3) Shift-share analysis method (SSA) is to used to evaluate the impact of economic sectoral structuring on social labor productivity New scientific contribution of the thesis The thesis has made new scientific contributrions, as follows: - An overview of the rationale for the relationship between economic sectoral structural transformation and employment in the economy; - Through a number of quantitative methods, the thesis assesses the contribution level of economic sectoral restructuring to employment in Vietnam in terms of both quality and quantity; - The thesis shows the positive impacts, negative impacts and cause of negative impactd of economic sectoral restructuring on employment Since then, there are policy suggestions to promote the process of economic sectoral restructuring in Vietnam towards creating more and more effective jobs for society Theoretical and practical meaning In terms of theory, the thesis selects three mathematical methods to find out the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment This finding will contribiute a part of valuable theory to improve the analytical framework of economic sectoral restructuring and employment in Vietnam Therefore, this will be a solid scientific baisc for further analysis of relationship between these two factors In terms of practicality, based on reliable and up-to-date data, the thesis will analyze employment status in the process of economic sectoral restructuring in Vietnam, which may be useful for state government in designing and implementing policies related to economic sectoral restructuring and employment Structure of the dissertation In addition to foreword and conclusion, the dissertation includes three chapters: Chapter 1: Overview of research Chapter 2: Theoretical background and models to assess the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on employment; Chapter 3: Assessing the situation and analyzing the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on employment through quantitative methods; Chapter 4: Orientation and solutions to promote the economic sectoral restructuring that have a positive impact on employment in Vietnam CHAPTER OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH 1.1 Overview of researchs in the world The consideration of the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment has been long long established in may studies around the world They all have a common view that the more economic sectoral restructuring is developed in the modern way, the more jobs will be created The dissertation analyzes the overview according to two contents: theoretical studies and empirical studies There have been quite a number of classic theories studying this relationship, such as Fisher’s labor productivity law (1935); two-area theory of economists: Ricardo (1871); Lewis (1954), Jorgenson (1961), Oshima (1989); Harris - Todaro's labor migration theory (1970); Lin’s new structural economic theory (2010) In addition to theoretical studies, the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment is also analyzed in practice through studies of Ark B V (1995), Fagerberg J (2000), Timmer M & Szirmai A (2000), Nazamuddin (1996), Teal (2011) 1.2 Overview of researchs in Vietnam In Vietnam, studies related to economic sectoral restructuring and employment are expressed through research topics at the state level, ministry level; independent studies of group; specialized studies of international organizations; doctoral dissertations; monographs and independent scientific articles CHAPTER THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND MODELS TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC SECTORAL RESTRUCTURING ON EMPLOYMENT 2.1 General theory of economic sectoral restructuring and employment 2.1.1 Economic sectoral structure and economic sectoral restructuring Economic sectoral structure, interms of quantity, is determined by the rate of output (or GDP) of each part of the total output value (or GDP) of the entire economy Economic sectoral structure, interms of quality, is the whole of componants that make of economy of each country that are inextricably linked These parts interact with each other, represent the quantity and quality correlation in certain space and time and they are suitable for certain socio-economic conditions The economic restructuring is the process of changing the sectoral structure from one state to another in the direction of becoming more and more perfect, suitable for the environment and development conditions 2.1.2 Employment From an economic perspective, employment is concept used to indicate the appropriateness of labor and necessary conditions (capital, production materials, technology and other social factors) to use labor 2.1.3 The dialectical relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment in the process of economic growth Economic sectoral structural transformation creates the premise for the for the growth and improvement of production factor markets, such on the marine economy or they all have a starting point from agriculture Although each region has its own strengths, Vietnam can fully draw lessons for themselves through their economic practices CHAPTER ASSESSING THE SITUATION AND ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC SECTORAL RESTRUCTURING ON EMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM 3.1 Current situation of economic restructuring and employment in vietnam in the period 1991 - 2017 Dissertation describes the current situation of economic restructuring and employment in Vietnam in the period 1991 – 2017 in three aspects: (1) GDP structure by sector; (2) Investment capital structure by sector; (3) labor structure and labor productivity by sectors in the economy 3.2 Assessing the impact of economic restructuring on employment by quantitative methods 3.2.1 Using Granger causality test to determine the relationship between economic restructuring and employment in Vietnam Statistical description of research data MLI Observations Medium Maximum minimum GL MLI 1064 1064 Std Dev 2.93 2.49 1.72 Skewness 5.74 45.82 16.47 Kurtosis 66.02 0.15 -12.41 Source: Author’s calculations according to GSO data GL 2.63 0.74 6.74 The results of the first two Granger causality test (HNC and HC) show that the hypothesis H0 is rejected at latencies 1, and with the 14 level of meaning 5% At the same time, testing the heterogeeous noncausality (HENC) also supported the existence of th relationship between GL and MLI 3.2.2 Using vector method and elasticity to assess the impact of economic restructuring on the number of jobs in Vietnam Application of vetor method and elasticity through the data of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam in the period of 1991 – 2017 on working employees by sectors (agriculture, industry, services) and GDP by sector at constant 2010 prices, the auther calculated the angle of sectoral restructuring in two parts: restructuring from agriculture to industry and grom agriculture to non-agriculture On that basis, the employment elasticity coefficient is also calculated in two parts: (1) employment elasticity according to the rate of restructuring between the two sectors: agriculture – industry; (2) employment elasticity according to the rate of restructuring between the two sectors: agriculture – nonagriculture 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Employment elasticity according to the speed of economic restructuring Source: Author’s calculations according to GSO data 15 3.2.3 Using SSA method to measure the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on growth of labor productivity in Vietnam The contribution of restructuring to labor productivity growth is divided into stages of calculation based on the Government’s 5-year plans Changes in labor productivity in Vietnam overtime Unit :% 1996 2000 Stage 2001 2005 2006 2010 2011 2015 2016 2017 1996 2017 Changing rate of component Static Shift Effect Dynamic Shift Effect Endogenous Effect Labor productivity growth 4.62 11.61 5.76 2.35 0.00 50.42 -0.71 -2.27 -1.51 -0.23 0.01 -9.83 4.32 2.16 15.93 14.16 56.89 13.66 6.41 18.05 14.37 97.48 12.52 16.42 Share of components Static Shift Effect 28.12 85.03 89.91 13.03 0.00 51.72 Dynamic Shift Effect -4.34 -16.65 -23.57 -1.30 0.10 -10.09 Endogenous Effect 76.23 31.61 33.66 88.27 98.52 58.36 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total Source: Author’s calculations according to GSO data In order to compare the changes in the contribution of effects on the rate of labor productivity growth by sector over time periods, the thesis calculates the specific contribution of 17 sectors The SSA method shows that internal labor productivity and the process of restructuring in the period of 1996 – 2017 all contribute significantly to the aggregate labor productivity, in which, the static effect have played an important role in the growth of labor productivity at this stage This is evidence that the sectoral structural change took place more strongly in the period 1996 2000 In addition, the SSA method shows that some dynamic 16 development sectors will benefit from dynamic effects fo the restructuring process Among them, manufacturing industry is the leading industry Since 2001, this industry has started to develop and act as a “modern area” because it has higher productivity and more labor absorption Therefore, the dynamic effect in this industry is promoted, facilitated to motivate the labor productivity growth 3.3 The impact of economic sectoral restructuring on employment The analysis of the situations and results of quantitative research presented above leads to the conclusion that economic sectoral restructuring, on the one hand, has created motivation to promote more job growth; on the other hand, because the shift did not go to the right goal, it has led to many new jobs created but low quality and unsustainable jobs The cause of negative impacts of economic restructuring on employment can be include the following factors: (1) Limitation in design of economic restructuring policy; (2) Shortcomings in the implementation of investment capital allocation policies for the process of economic sectoral restructuring in the economy; (3) Vietnamese enterprises have not focused on innovation; (4) The level of human resources is still low so it does not meet the requiremnets of modernization 17 CHAPTER ORIENTATION AND SOLUTIONS TO PROMOTE THE ECONOMIC SECTORAL RESTRUCTURING THAT HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM 4.1 International and domestic context and requirements of economic sectoral restructuring to have a positive impact on employment in Vietnam The world economy is developing in new conditions and contexts with a profound and comprehensiv transformation in terms of technological level, product structure and economic institutions Besides, the characteristics of the economy with high opening and deep intergration into the world economic system has created opportunities for Vietnam to expand its development space quickly and has been strongly supported by international resources that move increasingly freely However, in order for the economic restructuring to be successful in promoting employment with high labor productivity, there by stimuling sustainable economic growth in the new contexts, Vietnam needs to meet the following requirements: (1) Requirements for breakthrough development in the global value chain through the system of international labor division; (2) Requirements for seizing opportunities to develop in leaps and bounds in the era of industrial revolution 4.0; (3) The requirement of economic sectoral restructuring and employment growth must always aim at sustainable development 18 4.2 Orientation of economic sectoral restructuring to have a positive impact on employment in Vietnam from now until 2035 Firstly, economic sectoral transformation must be directed towards integrationand based on integration through effectively exploiting internal resources, strengthening attraction of external resources and new creating comparative advantages to improve labor productivity and national competitiveness Secondly, economic sectoral restructuring must be associated with the building a modern market economy institution to emprove the effeciency of allocation and use input resources In particular, it is necessary to focus on developing the domestic private sector which has high competitiveness Thirdly, economic sectoral restructuring should focus on developing the innovation capacity of businesses in all sectors and fields in the economy Fourthl, the process of economic sectoral transformation should be based on high quality human resources and well meet the requirements of modern science and technology Fifthly, economic sectoral restructuring should be associated with sustainable environmental development and resilience to climate change Năm là, chuyển dịch cấu ngành kinh tế phải gắn với phát triển bền vững môi trường tăng cường khả chống chịu với biến đổi khí hậu 19 4.3 Some key solutions to promote the economic sectoral restructuring in order to have a positive impact on employment by 2035 4.3.1 Group of solutions on Government policies Solutions that the government should to address, including: (1) Building a state that has constructivist capacity to develop quickly; (2) Applying market principles for economic policies; (3) Developing socioeconomic infrastructure in a perfect way; Sustainable dvelopment associated with fighting climate change 4.3.2 Group of solutions on enterprise innovation capacity There are two solutions for enterprise innovation, including: (1) Considering businesses as the center of innovation; (2) Developing an intellectual property strategy 4.3.3 Group of solutions on employment and labor productivity High labor prductivity and good jobs will be achieved if Vietnam focuses on implementing solutions: (1) Focusing on investing and developing human resources to meet the requirements of economic restructuring and in-depth economic growth; (3) Developing an internal restructuring strategy towards selecting products based on outstanding comparative advantages; (3) Strengthen foreign trade opportunities to deeply participate in global value chain ans stay ahead of competition with emerging economies 4.4 Conditions for implementing the solutions In the process of economic sectoral restructuring, Vietnam should create cohesion and linkage between labor resources, infrastructure, institutions, information, international economic integration and business 20 invironment More importantly, the prerequisite for Vietnam to become a modern industrialized country is to have a strong government, run by elite officials with high education and dedicated spirit, who have constructivist capacity and a strong political bravery CONCLUSIONS Since Vietnamese economy has entered the period of “Doi Moi” so far, two issues “economic restructuring” and “employment” have always been paid attention in most of the 5-year planning periods This shows that the government has been very interested in retionalizing the economic structure They all have unity in social awareness about the importance of economic restructuring as well as job creation for workers to help the economy move from width-based growth to depth-based growth Especially, Vietnam is a developing country with a large population characteristics and popularion structure is concentraded mostly in rural areas, so the proportion of agricultural labor in th total labor force is very high This makes economic restructuring and employment more and more inevitable to transform into new ways of growth – growth based on social labor productivity, national resources and competing capability By reviewing a number of studies in the world and in Vietnam to find research gaps, dissertation has systematized scientifically on the theoretical background of the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment and proposed a research framework Combining theoretical research and application of several quantitative methods, the thesis has evaluated the situation and analyzed the impact of 21 economic sectoral restructuring on employment in Vietnam Analysis results show that, with Granger causality test, up to 60% of provinces have supported the impact of economic restructuring on employment Among the provinces that not support this relationship, there are very developed provinces such as Thu Thien Hue, Khanh Hoa, Ba Ria-Vung Tau or Binh Duong Granger causality test results show thay these provinces represented the opposite relationship with the majority of above units, meaning employment growth has an impact on economic sectoral restructuring After determining the existence of the relationship between economic restructuring and employment in Vietnam, dissertation continued to use vector method and elasticity to measure the impact of economic restructuring on the number of jobs across development stages The results show that the elasticity of employment according to the speed of restructuring between agricultural sector – non-agricultural sector and elasticity of employment according to the speed of agricultural sector – industrial sector have greatly changed, but their value has still increased over time This positive change contained a happy signal about the qualifications of rural workers, that they had good preparation of necessary skills to be able to meet employment in industrial and service sectors Shift-share analysis is used to measure the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on labor productivity The results show that the internal labor productivity and the process of restructuring in the period of 1996 – 2017 have made significant contributions to the growth of aggregate labor productivity in the economy, in which, static effect of the 22 restructuring process has played an important role in the growth of labor productivity at this stage In addition, the SSA method shows that some dynamic development sectors will benefit from the dynamic effects of the restructuring process Among them, manufacturing is the leading industry Since 2001, the manufacturing industry has begun to develop and act as a “modern area”, with higher productivity and more labor absorption Therefore, the dynamic effect in this area has been promoted, which has created conditions to govern the growth rate of labor productivity in the economy The analytical results of the dissertation also show that besides the achievements that have formed strong points, the process of economic sectoral restructuring also causes negative impacts on employment, which can be attribited to: Limitation in design of economic restructuring policy; Shortcomings in the implementation of investment capital allocation policies for the process of economic sectoral restructuring in the economy; Vietnamese enterprises have not focused on innovation; The level of human resources is still low so it does not meet the requiremnets of modernization Based on the results of analysis and evaluation mentioned above, the thesis has considered the international and domestic context to propose requirements, orientations and solutions to promote the economic sectoral restructuring in order to have positive impact on employment in Vietnam until 2035 Accordingly, the proposed solutions include: group of government policies; group of solutions on enterprise innovation capacity; groups of solutions on employment and labor productivity 23  Next research orientation of dissertation Economic sectoral restructuring and employment are broad and cannot be covered in the framework of the thesis, so the thesis should continue to research to supplement and complete with the following contents: - The dessertation only focuses on analyzing the impact of ecnomic sectoral transformation on employment quality through labor productivity In fact, labor productivity is just one of the basic factors reflecting the quality of employment Therefore, the next research orientation of the thesis is to further analyze job quality in relation to economic sectoral restructuring, including: education-training, physical, working environment, income - Because the aim of the thesis is to solve the relationship between economic sectoral transformation and employment, so dissertation has not yet discussed the factors affecting employment Therefore, in the future, the author will continue to study the factors affecting employment in the process of economic growth such as land resources, production tools, labor markets, and employment policies 24 LIST OF WORKS RELATED TO THE THESIS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED A ARTICLES Nguyen Thi Dong (2019) The impact of human capital on labor productivity growth in Vietnam Science and Technology Development Journal - Economics - Law and Management, No (2), pp.104-110 Nguyen Thi Dong (2018) The contribution of Industrial sectors in labor productivity growth in Vietnam Journal of Science, HCM City Open University, No 61 (4), pp.51-59 Nguyen Thi Dong, Pham Thi Ly (2017) The Effects of Vietnam’s Economic Restructuring on Employment Elasticity Journal of Development and Intergration, No 32, pp.56-61 Nguyen Thi Dong, Pham Thi Ly (2017) Economic Structural Change and Employment in Vietnam: A Granger Causality approach Journal of Science, HCM City Open University, No 56, pp.13-24 Nguyen Thi Dong (2015) Economic strutural change in Vietnam in period 1994-2013: Current situation and solutions Banking Science & Training Review, No.154, pp.22-28 Nguyen Quoc Te, Nguyen Thi Dong (2015) The relationship between economic strutural change and employment growth by Granger Causality testing Labor and Social Affairs Review, No 498, pp.10-13 Nguyen Thi Dong (2014) Assessment of social labor productivity by shift-share-analysis method: application in Phu Yen Banking Science & Training Review, No.143, pp.47-53 Nguyen Thi Dong (2014) Effects of economic restructuring on employment in Phu Yen province Journal of Development and Intergration, No 14, pp.82-89 Nguyen Thi Dong, Vu Thi Khanh Minh (2013) Regarding labor restructural change in agriculture and rural Economy and Forcast Review, No.20 (556), pp 34-36 10 Nguyen Quoc Te, Nguyen Thi Dong (2013a) Measuring labor productivity growth in vietnam by shift – share analysis method Journal of Economic Development, No.273, pp 17-26 11 Nguyen Quoc Te, Nguyen Thi Dong (2013b) Measuring Growth of Labor Productivity in Vietnam by Shift – share Analysis of Structure of Industries Journal of Economic Development, No.218, pp 37 – 47 12 Nguyen Quoc Te, Nguyen Thi Dong (2013c) The effect of the economy restruction on the movement of the labor force and labor produtivity growth Journal of Binh Duong Economics and Technology, No.03, pp.3-14 13 Nguyen Thi Dong (2013) Evaluating the relationship between labor productivity growth and national competitiveness Banking Review, No.14, pp.6-11 14 Nguyen Thi Dong (2012) Effects of economic structural transformation on urban unemployment rate in Vietnam Banking Technology Review, No.80, pp.35-41 B SCIENCE RESEARCH TOPICS Nguyen Thi Dong (secrectary, 2019) Human capital in sustainable economic growth in Vietnam Science Research Topic Banking Academy Nguyen Thi Dong (member, 2017) Researching the impact of economic structural change on employment in the process of economic growth in Vietnam Science Research Topic, (Code: CS2016-40), University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City Nguyen Thi Dong (manager, 2014) Effect of economic structural change on employment in Phu Yen province Science Research Topic Banking Academy ... that the selection of growth model in Vietnam in this period is not clear Although Vietnam set a target to become an industrialized country by 2020, Vietnam did not provide specific orientations... structural change took place more strongly in the period 1996 2000 In addition, the SSA method shows that some dynamic 16 development sectors will benefit from dynamic effects fo the restructuring... Vietnam to become a modern industrialized country is to have a strong government, run by elite officials with high education and dedicated spirit, who have constructivist capacity and a strong