CHAPTER 4 ORIENTATION AND SOLUTIONS TO PROMOTE THE
4.4. Conditions for implementing the solutions
In the process of economic sectoral restructuring, Vietnam should create cohesion and linkage between labor resources, infrastructure, institutions, information, international economic integration and business
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invironment. More importantly, the prerequisite for Vietnam to become a modern industrialized country is to have a strong government, run by elite officials with high education and dedicated spirit, who have constructivist capacity and a strong political bravery.
CONCLUSIONS
Since Vietnamese economy has entered the period of “Doi Moi” so far, two issues “economic restructuring” and “employment” have always been paid attention in most of the 5-year planning periods. This shows that the government has been very interested in retionalizing the economic structure. They all have unity in social awareness about the importance of economic restructuring as well as job creation for workers to help the economy move from width-based growth to depth-based growth. Especially, Vietnam is a developing country with a large population characteristics and popularion structure is concentraded mostly in rural areas, so the proportion of agricultural labor in th total labor force is very high. This makes economic restructuring and employment more and more inevitable to transform into new ways of growth – growth based on social labor productivity, national resources and competing capability.
By reviewing a number of studies in the world and in Vietnam to find research gaps, dissertation has systematized scientifically on the theoretical background of the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment and proposed a research framework.
Combining theoretical research and application of several quantitative methods, the thesis has evaluated the situation and analyzed the impact of
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economic sectoral restructuring on employment in Vietnam. Analysis results show that, with Granger causality test, up to 60% of provinces have supported the impact of economic restructuring on employment.
Among the provinces that do not support this relationship, there are very developed provinces such as Thu Thien Hue, Khanh Hoa, Ba Ria-Vung Tau or Binh Duong. Granger causality test results show thay these provinces represented the opposite relationship with the majority of above units, meaning employment growth has an impact on economic sectoral restructuring.
After determining the existence of the relationship between economic restructuring and employment in Vietnam, dissertation continued to use vector method and elasticity to measure the impact of economic restructuring on the number of jobs across development stages.
The results show that the elasticity of employment according to the speed of restructuring between agricultural sector – non-agricultural sector and elasticity of employment according to the speed of agricultural sector – industrial sector have greatly changed, but their value has still increased over time. This positive change contained a happy signal about the qualifications of rural workers, that they had good preparation of necessary skills to be able to meet employment in industrial and service sectors.
Shift-share analysis is used to measure the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on labor productivity. The results show that the internal labor productivity and the process of restructuring in the period of 1996 – 2017 have made significant contributions to the growth of aggregate labor productivity in the economy, in which, static effect of the
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restructuring process has played an important role in the growth of labor productivity at this stage. In addition, the SSA method shows that some dynamic development sectors will benefit from the dynamic effects of the restructuring process. Among them, manufacturing is the leading industry. Since 2001, the manufacturing industry has begun to develop and act as a “modern area”, with higher productivity and more labor absorption. Therefore, the dynamic effect in this area has been promoted, which has created conditions to govern the growth rate of labor productivity in the economy.
The analytical results of the dissertation also show that besides the achievements that have formed strong points, the process of economic sectoral restructuring also causes negative impacts on employment, which can be attribited to: Limitation in design of economic restructuring policy; Shortcomings in the implementation of investment capital allocation policies for the process of economic sectoral restructuring in the economy; Vietnamese enterprises have not focused on innovation;
The level of human resources is still low so it does not meet the requiremnets of modernization.
Based on the results of analysis and evaluation mentioned above, the thesis has considered the international and domestic context to propose requirements, orientations and solutions to promote the economic sectoral restructuring in order to have positive impact on employment in Vietnam until 2035. Accordingly, the proposed solutions include: group of government policies; group of solutions on enterprise innovation capacity; groups of solutions on employment and labor productivity.
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Next research orientation of dissertation
Economic sectoral restructuring and employment are broad and cannot be covered in the framework of the thesis, so the thesis should continue to research to supplement and complete with the following contents:
- The dessertation only focuses on analyzing the impact of ecnomic sectoral transformation on employment quality through labor productivity. In fact, labor productivity is just one of the basic factors reflecting the quality of employment. Therefore, the next research orientation of the thesis is to further analyze job quality in relation to economic sectoral restructuring, including: education-training, physical, working environment, income...
- Because the aim of the thesis is to solve the relationship between economic sectoral transformation and employment, so dissertation has not yet discussed the factors affecting employment. Therefore, in the future, the author will continue to study the factors affecting employment in the process of economic growth such as land resources, production tools, labor markets, and employment policies...
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