Statistics the art and science of leaning from data 4th global edition by agresti

Statistics the art and science of leaning from data 4th global edition by agresti Statistics the art and science of leaning from data 4th global edition by agresti Statistics the art and science of leaning from data 4th global edition by agresti Statistics the art and science of leaning from data 4th global edition by agresti Statistics the art and science of leaning from data 4th global edition by agresti Statistics the art and science of leaning from data 4th global edition by agresti

Statistics The Art and Science of Learning from Data Fourth Edition Global Edition Alan Agresti University of Florida Christine Franklin University of Georgia Bernhard Klingenberg Williams College With Contributions by Michael Posner Villanova University Harlow, England • London • New York • Boston • San Francisco • Toronto • Sydney • Dubai • Singapore • Hong Kong Tokyo • Seoul • Taipei • New Delhi • Cape Town • Sao Paulo • Mexico City • Madrid • Amsterdam • Munich • Paris • Milan Editorial Director: Chris Hoag Editor in Chief: Deirdre Lynch Acquisitions Editor: Suzanna Bainbridge Editorial Assistant: Justin Billing Acquisitions Editor, Global Editions: Sourabh Maheshwari Program Manager: Danielle Simbajon Project Manager: Rachel S Reeve Assistant Project Editor, Global Editons: Vikash Tiwari Senior Manufacturing Controller, Global Editions: Kay Holman Program Management Team Lead: Karen Wernholm Project Management Team Lead: Christina Lepre Media Producer: Jean Choe Media Production Manager, Global Editions: Vikram Kumar TestGen Content Manager: Marty Wright MathXL Content Manager: Robert Carroll Product Marketing Manager: Tiffany Bitzel Field Marketing Manager: Andrew Noble Marketing Assistant: Jennifer Myers Senior Author Support/Technology Specialist: Joe Vetere Rights and Permissions Project Manager: Gina M Cheselka Procurement Specialist: Carol Melville Associate Director of Design: Andrea Nix Program Design Lead: Beth Paquin Production Coordination, Text Design, Composition, and Illustrations: Integra Software Services Pvt Ltd Cover Design: Lumina Datamatics Cover Image: Vipada Kanajod/Shutterstock.com Acknowledgements of third-party content appear on page C-1, which constitutes an extension of this copyright page PEARSON, ALWAYS LEARNING, and MYSTATLAB are exclusive trademarks owned by Pearson Education, Inc., or its affiliates in the U.S and/or other countries Pearson Education Limited Edinburgh Gate Harlow Essex CM20 2JE England and Associated Companies throughout the world Visit us on the World Wide Web at: www.pearsonglobaleditions.com © Pearson Education Limited 2018 The rights of Alan Agresti, Christine Franklin, and Bernhard Klingenberg to be identified as the authors of this work have been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 Authorized adaptation from the United States edition, entitled Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning from Data, Fourth Edition, ISBN 978-0-321-99783-8, by Alan Agresti, Christine Franklin, and Bernhard Klingenberg, published by Pearson Education © 2017 All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without either the prior written permission of the publisher or a license permitting restricted copying in the United Kingdom issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS All trademarks used herein are the property of their respective owners The use of any trademark in this text does not vest in the author or publisher any trademark ownership rights in such trademarks, nor does the use of such trademarks imply any affiliation with or endorsement of this book by such owners British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library 10 ISBN 10: 1-292-16477-8 ISBN 13: 978-1-292-16477-9 Typeset by Integra Software Services Pvt Ltd Printed and bound in Malaysia Dedication To my wife Jacki for her extraordinary support, including making numerous suggestions and putting up with the evenings and weekends I was working on this book AlAn Agresti To Corey and Cody, who have shown me the joys of motherhood, and to my husband, Dale, for being a dear friend and a dedicated father to our boys You have always been my biggest supporters Chris FrAnklin To my wife Sophia and our children Franziska, Florentina, Maximilian, and Mattheus, who are a bunch of fun to be with, and to Jean-Luc Picard for inspiring me BernhArd klingenBerg Contents Preface Part One Gathering and Exploring Data Chapter Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning from Data 28 1.1 Using Data to Answer Statistical Questions 1.2 Sample Versus Population 1.3 Using Calculators and Computers 29 Correlation, and Regression 117 3.1 The Association Between Two Categorical Variables 119 3.2 The Association Between Two Quantitative Variables 127 3.3 Predicting the Outcome of a Variable 3.4 Cautions in Analyzing Associations 34 43 Chapter Summary 49 Chapter Problems 50 Chapter Exploring Data with 139 154 Chapter Summary 170 Chapter Problems 171 Graphs and Numerical Summaries 52 Chapter Gathering Data 2.1 Different Types of Data 2.2 Graphical Summaries of Data 2.3 Measuring the Center of Quantitative Data 2.4 Measuring the Variability of Quantitative Data 2.5 Using Measures of Position to Describe Variability 92 2.6 Recognizing and Avoiding Misuses of Graphical Summaries 102 53 58 76 Chapter Summary 108 Chapter Problems 109 Part Two Chapter Association: Contingency, 84 179 4.1 Experimental and Observational Studies 180 4.2 Good and Poor Ways to Sample 4.3 Good and Poor Ways to Experiment 4.4 Other Ways to Conduct Experimental and Nonexperimental Studies 204 188 198 Chapter Summary 216 Chapter Problems 216 Part Review Online Probability, Probability Distributions, and Sampling Distributions Chapter Probability in Our Daily Lives 226 Chapter Summary 273 Chapter Problems 273 5.1 How Probability Quantifies Randomness 227 Chapter Probability Distributions 5.2 Finding Probabilities 6.1 5.3 Conditional Probability Summarizing Possible Outcomes and Their Probabilities 281 5.4 Applying the Probability Rules 6.2 Probabilities for Bell-Shaped Distributions 293 234 247 258 280 Contents 6.3 Probabilities When Each Observation Has Two Possible Outcomes 305 How Sample Means Vary Around the Population Mean 337 Chapter Summary 352 Chapter Problems 352 Chapter Summary 315 Chapter Problems 316 Chapter Sampling Distributions 7.1 7.2 324 Part Review Online How Sample Proportions Vary Around the Population Proportion 325 Part Three Inferential Statistics Chapter Statistical Inference: Confidence Intervals 360 8.1 Point and Interval Estimates of Population Parameters 361 8.2 Constructing a Confidence Interval to Estimate a Population Proportion 367 8.3 Constructing a Confidence Interval to Estimate a Population Mean 380 8.4 Choosing the Sample Size for a Study 391 8.5 Using Computers to Make New Estimation Methods Possible 400 Significance Tests About Proportions Part Four Decisions and Types of Errors in Significance Tests 444 9.5 Limitations of Significance Tests 449 9.6 The Likelihood of a Type II Error and the Power of a Test 456 Chapter 10 Comparing Two Groups 470 10.1 Categorical Response: Comparing Two Proportions 472 486 10.3 Other Ways of Comparing Means, Including a Permutation Test 498 10.4 Analyzing Dependent Samples Significance Tests About Hypotheses 412 9.2 9.4 10.2 Quantitative Response: Comparing Two Means Chapter Statistical Inference: Steps for Performing a Significance Test 413 Significance Tests About Means 434 Chapter Summary 463 Chapter Problems 464 Chapter Summary 404 Chapter Problems 404 9.1 9.3 513 10.5 Adjusting for the Effects of Other Variables 524 Chapter Summary 530 Chapter Problems 531 Part Review 418 Online Analyzing Association and Extended Statistical Methods Chapter 11 Analyzing the Association Between Categorical Variables 542 11.1 Independence and Dependence (Association) 11.2 Testing Categorical Variables for Independence 11.3 Determining the Strength of the Association 11.4 Using Residuals to Reveal the Pattern of Association 572 11.5 Fisher’s Exact and Permutation Tests 576 543 548 Chapter Summary 585 Chapter Problems 585 563 Contents Chapter 12 Analyzing the Association Between Quantitative Variables: Regression Analysis 592 12.1 Modeling How Two Variables Are Related 593 Chapter Summary 689 Chapter Problems 690 Chapter 14 Comparing Groups: Analysis of Variance Methods 695 12.2 Inference About Model Parameters and the Association 603 12.3 Describing the Strength of Association 14.1 One-Way ANOVA: Comparing Several Means 696 610 12.4 How the Data Vary Around the Regression Line 620 12.5 Exponential Regression: A Model for Nonlinearity 631 Chapter Summary 637 Chapter Problems 638 14.2 Estimating Differences in Groups for a Single Factor 706 14.3 Two-Way ANOVA Chapter Summary 730 Chapter Problems 730 Chapter 13 Multiple Regression 644 13.1 Using Several Variables to Predict a Response Chapter 15 Nonparametric Statistics 645 15.1 Compare Two Groups by Ranking 13.2 Extending the Correlation and R2 for Multiple Regression 651 13.3 Inferences Using Multiple Regression 657 13.5 Regression and Categorical Predictors 13.6 Modeling a Categorical Response 674 Chapter Summary 759 Chapter Problems 759 Part Review 680 Appendix A-1 Answers A-7 I-1 Index of Applications Credits I-9 C-1 A Guide to Learning From the Art in This Text Dataset Files 737 15.2 Nonparametric Methods for Several Groups and for Matched Pairs 748 13.4 Checking a Regression Model Using Residual Plots 668 Index 716 D-2 A Guide to Choosing a Statistical Method D-3 Summary of Key Notations and Formulas D-4 D-1 Online 736 An Introduction to the Web Apps The book’s website, www.pearsonglobaleditions.com/agresti, links to several new and interactive web-based applets (or web apps) that run in a browser These apps are designed to help students understand a wide range of statistical concepts and carry out statistical inference Many of these apps are featured (often including screenshots) in Activities throughout the book The apps allow saving output (such as graphs or tables) for potential inclusion in homework or projects • The Random Numbers app generates uniform random numbers (with or without replacement) from a user-defined range of integer values and simulates flipping a (potentially biased) coin • The Mean vs Median app allows users to add or delete points from a dot plot as the users explore the effect of outliers or skew on these two statistics • The Explore Categorical Data and Explore Quantitative Data apps provide basic statistics and plots for usersupplied data • The Explore Linear Regression app allows users to add or delete points from a scatterplot and observe how the regression line changes for different patterns or is affected by outliers The Fit Linear Regression app allows users to supply their own data, fit a linear regression model and explore residuals • The Guess the Correlation app lets users guess the correlation for a given scatterplot (and find the correlation between guesses and the true values) • The Binomial, Normal, t-, Chi-square, and F Distribution apps visually explore the meaning of parameters for these distributions Users can also find probabilities and percentiles and check them visually on the graph • The various Sampling Distribution apps generate sampling distributions of the sample proportion or the sample mean These apps let users generate samples of various sizes from a wide range of distributions such as skewed, uniform, bell-shaped, bimodal, or custom-built The apps display the population distribution, the data distribution of a randomly generated sample, and the sampling distribution of the sample mean or proportion With the (repeated) click on a button, one can see how the sampling distribution builds up one simulated random sample at a time and, for large sample sizes, assumes a bell shape Users can move sliders for sample size and various population parameters to see the effect on the sampling distribution Chapter shows many screenshots of these apps • The Inference for a Proportion and the Inference for a Mean app carry out statistical inference They provide graphs, confidence intervals and results from z- or t-tests for data supplied in summary or original form • The Explore Coverage app uses simulation to demonstrate the concept of the confidence coefficient, both An Introduction to the Web Apps for confidence intervals for the proportion and for the mean Different sliders for true population parameter, sample size or confidence coefficient show their effect on coverage and width of confidence intervals • The Errors and Power app explores Type I and Type II errors and the concept of power visually and interactively Users can move sliders to connect these concepts to sample size, significance level, and true parameter value for one-sample tests about proportions or means • The Inference Comparing Proportions and the Inference Comparing Means apps construct appropriate graphs for a visual comparison and carry out two-sample inference Confidence intervals and results of hypotheses tests for  two independent (or two dependent) samples are displayed Data can be supplied in summary or original form • The Bootstrap app finds a bootstrap confidence interval for a mean, median, or standard deviation • The Permutation Test (cont data) app compares quantitative responses between two groups using a permutation approach By repeatedly clicking a button, the sampling distribution using permutations is generated step-by-step, which is useful when first introducing the topic Both the original and the (randomly) permuted datasets are shown • The Permutation Test for Independence app tests for independence in contingency tables using the permutation sampling distribution of the Chi-squared statistic X2 It displays the original contingency table and bar chart along with the table and chart for the permuted dataset, as well as the sampling distribution of X2 • The Fisher Exact Test app can be used for exact inference in * contingency tables • The ANOVA (One-Way) app allows comparison of several means, including post-hoc pairwise multiple comparisons Preface We have each taught introductory statistics for many years, and we have witnessed the welcome evolution from the traditional formula-driven mathematical statistics course to a concept-driven approach This concept-driven approach places more emphasis on why statistics is important in the real world and places less emphasis on mathematical probability One of our goals in writing this book was to help make the conceptual approach more interesting and more readily accessible to students At the end of the course, we want students to look back at their statistics course and realize that they learned practical concepts that will serve them well for the rest of their lives We also want students to come to appreciate that in practice, assumptions are not perfectly satisfied, models are not exactly correct, distributions are not exactly normally distributed, and different factors should be considered in conducting a statistical analysis The title of our book reflects the experience of data analysts, who soon realize that statistics is an art as well as a science What’s New in This Edition Our goal in writing the fourth edition of our textbook was to improve the student and instructor user experience We have: • Clarified terminology and streamlined writing throughout the text to improve ease of reading and facilitate comprehension • Used real data and real examples to illustrate almost all concepts discussed Throughout the book, within three to five consecutive pages, an example is presented that depicts a real-world scenario to illustrate the statistical concept discussed • Introduced new web-based applets (referred to as web apps or apps) illustrating and helping students interact with key statistical concepts and techniques These apps invite students to explore consequences of changing parameters and to carry out statistical inference Among other relevant concepts and techniques, students are introduced to: • Sampling distributions • Central limit theorem • Bootstrapping for interval estimation (Chapter 8) • Randomization or permutation tests for significance testing (Chapter 10 for difference in two means and Chapter 11 for two categorical variables) • Inserted brief overviews to set the stage for each chapter, introducing students to chapter concepts and helping them see how previous chapters’ concepts, tools, and techniques are related • Included computer output from the most recent versions of MINITAB and the TI calculator • Expanded Chapter 1, providing key terminology to establish a foundation to understand the big picture of the statistical investigative process—the importance of asking good statistical questions, designing an appropriate study, performing descriptive and inferential analysis, and making a conclusion I-8 www.downloadslide.net Index Three-way ANOVA, 727 See also Analysis of variance (ANOVA) TI (Texas Instruments) calculators, 44 Time plots, 70–72, 155 Time trends, 166 Tobacco prevention campaigns, 186 Total sum of squares, 702 Treatments, 180 Tree diagrams, 235, 244, 264–265 Trends scatterplots to find, 129–131 time, 166 time plots for, 70 Trials independent, 242 law of large numbers and, 231 simulations of, 228, 230 t-score population mean construction and, 383–385 properties of, 382–383 t confidence interval for other confidence levels, 385–386 t statistic, 436–438 t tests, for one-way ANOVA to compare means, 704 Tufte, Edward, 105 Tukey, John, 106, 709 Tukey method, 709 Twitter, 57 Two groups, comparing See Comparing two groups Two-sided significance tests for comparing two population means, 492 on means, 440–441 on population proportions, 479–480 on population slope β, 602 on proportions, 422–424, 430 Two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) See Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Type I errors, 445 Type II errors, 445, 456–459 U Unbiased estimators, 362 Undercoverage, sampling bias from, 193, 195 Uniform distributions, 290, 292 Unimodal distributions, 68 Union of events, 241–242 United Nations, 91 University College, London (UK), 455 University of California at Berkeley, 455 University of Chicago, 31, 360 University of Connecticut, 620 University of Florida, 45, 173, 353 University of Georgia, 289 University of Michigan, 182 University of Minnesota, 399 University of Western Australia, 405 University of Wisconsin, 50, 236, 641 Upper control limits, 354 USA Today, 528 U.S Air Force, 304 U.S Bureau of the Census, 33–34, 35, 46, 80, 185–186, 312 U.S Census Bureau, 350 U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA), 119 U.S Department of Commerce, 186 U.S Department of Homeland Security, 257 U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 120, 417 U.S National Security Agency (NSA), 406, 580 U.S Supreme Court, 280 V Variability around regression equation, 658–659 distribution shape to show, 55 in one-way ANOVA to compare means, 698–699 percentage of overall (r2), 624–625 position measures to describe box plots, 96–98 interquartiles range, 94–95 outliers, 95 quartiles and other percentiles, 92–94 z-score, 98–100 of probability distributions, 286–287 of quantitative data empirical rule for magnitude of s, 88–90 range, 84 sample statistics and population parameters, 90 standard deviation, 84–88 r2 as percentage of, 149 randomness and, 38 sample size and, 396 of sampling distributions, 325–329 Variables See also Association between categorical variables; Association between quantitative variables; Categorical variables; Quantitative variables adjusting for other, 524–528 binary explanatory, 471 categorical, 58–60, 287 categorical explanatory, 210 continuous quantitative, 57 continuous random, 287–290 discrete quantitative, 57 discrete random, 281–283 explanatory, 180, 676–679 factors as categorical explanatory, 210 indicator, 674–675 lurking, 162–166, 183, 194, 524–525 mean of, 77 ordinal, 583 outcomes of overview, 139–140 with quantitative and categorical variables, 149–150 regression equation, 142–144 regression line from method of least squares, 146–147 residuals to measure prediction errors, 144–146 slope, correlation, and units of, 147–148 y-intercept and slope, 140–141 overview, 32 quantitative, 60 quantitative versus categorical, 53–54 random, 281, 325 response, 180, 471 Variance, 320, 701–702 See also Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Venn diagrams, 239, 241, 249 Visual Display of Quantitative Information (Tufte), 105 Voice of the People poll, 42 Volatility, 287 See also Variability Volunteer samples, 194, 196 W Wage bill of Premier League Clubs, 151 Walmart Stores, 280 Web apps, 47–48 Weighted averages, 285 WhatsApp reviews, 291 Wheat crop yield, 728 Whitman, Meg, 30, 324 Wilcoxon test with quantitative response, 743–745 signed-rank, 753–757 two groups compared by, 738–742 Williams College, 547, 580, 732 Within-groups estimate, 701 See also Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Women and Love (Hite), 193 Women’s Health Initiative, 485 World Health Organization (WHO), 113, 304 Worldwide airline fatalities, 115 Y Yale University, 220–221, 318, 620 y-intercept, 140–141, 147, 595 See also Regression line Z Zagat restaurant guides, 151 z-score for confidence levels, 373–374 as correlation value, 135–136 for cumulative probability distributions, 297–299 to identify position and outliers, 98–100 as number of standard deviations, 294–295, 299–302 standard normal probability distribution and, 303 z-statistic, 437–438, 685 www.downloadslide.net Index of Applications A Academic performance, 638 ACT scores, 320 Advertising and sales, 152 Advertising strategy, 620 Age for legal alcohol, 220 Age pyramids, 42 AIDS and AZT, 691 AIDS and condom use, 584 AIDS and fluoride, 176 Airline accidents, 233 Airline performance, 349 Air pollution, 102 Air traffic controllers, random drug testing of, 263–264 Alcohol drinking benefits of, 528 legal age for, 220 smoking and, 562, 570–571 students abusing, 50 Alcoholics children of, 535 gender and, 537 treatment of, 759–760 Allergen-specific IgE antibodies, 486 Allergy medicine dosages, 503–505 Alligators, food sources for, 72, 562 Alternative therapies, 405 Alzheimer’s disease, 176, 216, 353 Animal gestational periods, 74, 168, 173 Animal longevity, 168, 173 Annual salary, 630 Anorexia in teenagers, 388–389, 533–535 Anorexia therapies, 706, 731–732, 747–748, 760 Antidepressants for smoking cessation, 200–201 Apple Inc.’s, 217 Arthroscopic surgery, 500–502, 511, 534 ASEC (Annual Social and Economic Supplement), 33, 350 Aspirin analysis of, 472–474 cancer death rates and, 33, 475–478, 484–485, 557–558 effects of daily, 33 heart attacks and, 586 Asthma, 113–114 Astrology, belief in, 536 Astrology predictions, 412, 418–419, 425–426, 431–432, 456–457 ATM withdrawals, 353 Attractiveness and getting dates, 729 Auctions, 316 Auditing school districts, 191 Audits and income level, 256 Auto bumper damage, 533 Auto bumper sturdiness, 730–731 Automatic filling machine, 305 Average daily study time (ADST), 666 Average monthly attendance percentage (AMAP), 666 Average monthly visitor satisfaction, 656 Average salaries, 344–346 B Bacteria in ground turkey, 171–172 Banking, satisfaction with, 704 Baseball Hall of Fame criteria, 687 Baseball player salaries, 83 Baseball statistics, 113, 152, 176, 187, 214, 314–315, 321, 335, 353 Basketball hot streaks, 322–323 Basketball shots, 291 Basketball statistics, 216–217, 257, 277, 314, 319–323, 353, 464, 528–529, 561 Battery capacity, 610 Batting averages to predict baseball scores, 142–144 BBC license fees, 107 Benford’s law, 274, 588 Binge drinking, 399 Birth rates, 167–168 Birth weights, 305, 317, 389 Blood pressure binge drinking and, 186 daily readings of, 350–351, 466 exercise and, 521–522, 758 reducing, 203 WHO statistics on, 113, 304 BMI (body mass index), 531 Body dissatisfaction, 511 Body fat, 619 Body mass reduction, 747 Botox side effects, 588 Breast augmentation, 535–536 Breast cancer age and, 529 diabetes and, 170 prediction, 687 probability of, 270–271 screening for, 187 Breast feeding and IQ, 535 British monarchy, opinions about, 405 Bulimia, 496 Burden of proof, in environmental protection, 417 Business failure, 399 Butterfly ballot in U.S presidential election of 2000, 131–132 Butterfly clones, 317 C Campaign fund raising, 485–486 Campaign spending, 221 Cancer awareness about, 335 death rates for aspirin and placebo from, 475–478, 484–485, 557–558 deaths from, 256 decision errors in prostate, 449 detection by dogs, 422–424, 431–432, 448 prediction, 687 remission rates, 40–41 types in 2012, 57 Capture-recapture method, 222–223 Carbon dioxide emissions, 82, 691 Carbon dioxide pollution, 78–79 Car and phone, 275 Car buying, 335 Car defects, 679 Cardiovascular diseases, 352 Car mileage and weight, 601–602, 620 Car total loss, 319 Catalog sales, 390, 466 Cell phones battery lifespan, 305 cancer and, 30–31 driving reaction time and, 493–494, 514–517, 535, 758 health and, 179–182 Internet usage and, 760 specifications of, 602, 631 use of, 208–209 Cell phone bill, 106 Census frequency, 188 Central limit theorem, simulations of, 343–344 Cereals health value of, 61–64, 66–68 sodium data on, 76–77, 82, 93–94, 96–97, 151–152, 168 sugar in, 74, 112, 151–152, 168, 174 Cheating spouses, 197–198 Chicken breasts, bacteria in, 379 Children in households, 58 ideal number of, 86–87, 292, 319, 465–466, 496, 732 of remitted depressed mothers, 187 parental gray hair and, 588–589 Chinese definition of “cool,” 109 Cigarettes See also smoking marijuana and, 561–562 taxes on, 91, 112 Claritin and nervousness, 583 Class skipping, college GPA and, 602, 610 Clinical trials, 220 Coffee machine precision, 304 Coffee vs tea, 758 Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), 562 Coincidences, 270 Colds, treatment of, 236–237 College CPI, variability in, 666 College admissions, 547 College degree careers and, 197 College GPA exercise and, 638 frequent dating and, 749–750 GRE scores and, 176 high school GPA and, 618, 620, 622–623, 657 predictions of, 173 study time and, 152–153, 176, 657, 666 television watching and, 168, 640 College graduation, by gender and race, 688 College underachievement, 621 Color blindness, 276 Colorectal cancer, 276, 589 Common cold and herbal remedies, 585–586 Compound interest, 635, 643 Computer use, 101 Condo solicitations, 335 Confidence interval performance, 376–377 Contingency tables of GSS data, 560–561 Corn yield, 718–722, 724, 728 Credit card solicitation, 408 Crime rates, 169, 690 education and, 160–162 poverty and, 690 urbanization and, 173, 175 Cumulative performance index (CPI), 656 Current Population Survey, 350 Customer satisfaction, 431, 695–696 I-9 I-10 www.downloadslide.net Index of Applications D F Dating success, 319 Death penalty, 274–276 opinions of, 378, 410 race and, 169, 525–528, 536, 539, 570, 688 Death rates, 536–537, 636 Dental care, regional differences in, 219 Dental insurance, 291 Depression, children of mothers, 187 Depression, therapies for, 747 Diagnostic testing, 254–255 Diamond clarity, 588 Diamond price, 113 Diamond weight and price, 151 Dining out, 83 DNA evidence, 271 Dog ownership and health, 176 Dogs’ preferences for petting versus vocal praise, 507–509 Dog training, 583 Down syndrome Triple Blood Test, 249–251, 257, 272, 585 Dream job and reality, 214 Driving after drinking, 408 Driving and texting, 203 Driving reaction time, 743–746, 758 Drought and dust, 172–173 Drowning, ice cream and, 162 Drowning, fear of, 216 Drug side effects, 587 Drug testing and student drug use, 182 Drug use by athletes, 198 Duct-tape therapy, 202 Facebook advertising on, 45–46 friends, 92 worldwide Internet and, 127–131, 134–135 Faculty salaries, gender and, 733 False-positive biopsy, 468 Family disruption, 219 Family size, 222, 529 Fast food and indigestion, 602 Farm size, mean of, 399 Fast-food promotions, 433 Fast-food sales, 443–444 Federal government spending, 107 Fertility rates, 73–74, 83, 690–691 Fertilizer and manure amounts, 716–717 Fertilizers, 202, 727 First-aid course, 485 Fitness workshop, 584 Five-star ratings, 340–341 Fluoride and AIDS, 176 Food affordability, 538 Football statistics, 273, 408, 640 40-hour work week, 434–435 40-yard dash speeds, 640 Fracking, opinions about, 197, 414–415, 427–428, 432, 448, 531 French, learning, 704–705 French quiz scores, 757–758 Friends, numbers of, 92, 532 Fuel consumption by cars, 153, 173 Fuel efficiency, 406 Full-time jobs, 405 Full-time students, proportion of, 336 E eBay purchases, 292, 314, 384–385, 389, 407 Ebola outbreaks, 49 e-commerce, 470 Education crime and, 160–162, 650 gender and, 691 income and, 171, 691, 728 number of friends and, 733 religious beliefs and, 587 in South Africa, 395–396 years of, 705, 732 Edward Snowden, opinions about, 406, 580–583 Egypt’s president, performance of, 433 Election predictions, 30, 35, 43, 47, 50, 139, 366, 464 Election predictions from exit polls, 314, 324, 330–335, 379, 391–394, 433 Electricity prices, 417 Electricity sources, 72 Electronic devices, time spent, 92 Email, time spent on, 389, 406 Email use, 137 Emotional contagion, 203 Emotional health, 221–222 Empagliflozin, 497 Employee evaluations, 535 Employment and gender, 175–176 Employment, gender gap, 586 Employment percentage in the United States, 399 Energy and water consumption, 111 Energy consumption, 101 Energy drinks, 495, 732 Enrollment in college, 106 Environmental protection, 369–370, 562 Environmental threats, 52 ESP frequency, 318, 464 Euthanasia, opinions on, 50–51 Exam scores, 73, 87, 91, 152, 169–170, 301–302 Exercise, 150–151, 758 G Gallup polls, 39–40 See also election predictions from exit polls Game apps, 367 Gas brand comparisons, 218–219 Gas consumption and temperature, 173 Gender alcoholism and, 537 belief in afterlife and, 532 of best friend, 467 bias and, 309–311 birth frequency by, 320 chocolate and, 138 college graduation and, 688 death penalty and, 570 discrimination based on, 280 distribution of, 336 education and, 691 employment by, 496 happiness and, 545, 547, 561 housework hours and, 409, 496 income and, 537, 691, 728 interviewer, 197 manager selection and, 461–462 marijuana and, 531 Olympic high jump winners by, 149–150 pay by, 537 politics and, 547, 571–572 politics and race and, 570 religiosity and, 573–574 selecting managers and, 432–433 sports prize money and, 534 student stress and depression and, 565 teacher salaries and, 529 weekly earnings and, 82 Genetic testing, 563 Ghosts, belief in, 536 Globalization, opinions on, 42 Global warming, 42, 154–155, 247, 318, 495 Going to bars, number of friends and, 730 Golfers earnings, 111 Golf statistics, 270, 620, 642, 650–651 Google Glass wearable technology, 399–400 Government debt, 151 Government spying, 366–367, 406 Graduate studies, 42–43 Grandparent longevity, 316 Graphs, impact of, 486–488, 490–491 GRE (Graduate Record Exam) scores, 114, 753–756, 758, 760 GRE scores, 619 Gross domestic product, 137, 153, 174 Growth mindset, 215 Gun control, 197 H Haircut prices, 113 Hamburger sales, 715 Handgun control, 36–37 Happiness gender and, 561 income and, 574–575 independent variables and, 563 marital, 588 marital versus general, 575 number of friends and, 707–710 recreation and, 575 in relationships, 257–258 religiosity and, 575 sex partners and, 587 variables associated with, 542 Hazing, 219 Headache medications, 432–433, 469 Health care issues, 366 Heart attacks aspirin and, 33, 218, 586 exercise and, 218 screening for, 276 smoking and, 218, 220 Heart disease, 30, 186–187, 269, 529 Heart rate normal, 317 Heart rate variability, 495 Heart transplants, 233 Heaven and hell, belief in, 34, 518–519 Height of buildings, 102 human remains as indication of, 139–140 in metric units, 318 of parents and their children, 612–613 predicting, 289–290 salaries and, 173 of students, 89–91, 102, 168–169 weight and, 641 in women, 304, 317 Heroin use, marijuana and, 277 Higher education and higher murder rates, 156–157, 156–160 High school education and health insurance, 175 High school GPA, college GPA and, 618, 620, 622–623, 657, 666 High school graduation rates, 113 Hike lengths, 111 HIV testing, 276 Hockey statistics, 217, 465 Home prices, 91, 609, 638, 641, 644–646, 651, 653–654, 667–671, 673–675, 679–680, 690, 691–692, 714, 727–728, 732 Home sales, 291 Homicide victims, 83 Hormone therapy and heart disease, 186–187 Horseshoe crabs weight, 532 Horseshoe crab weight, 691 Hospitals, length of stays in, 169, 390 www.downloadslide.net Hotel prices, 73, 408 Hours worked weekly, 466 Household net worth, 111 House owners in a district, 335 Human development, regression for, 667 Human gestation times, 317 Hurricane damage, 111–112 I Ibuprofen and lifespan, 532–533 Ice cream and drowning, 162 Illegal drug use, testing for, 226 Income credit card use and, 684, 687 crime and, 650 education and, 600–601, 691, 732 ethnic background and, 538 with experience, 604 of families in public housing, 407 gender and, 691, 728, 732 happiness and, 574–575 health insurance and, 112–113 height and, 642 income of CEOs, annual, 496 marital happiness and, 547, 550–551, 553, 561 statistics, 112 voting and, 687–688 Income statistics, 112 Incorrect statement, 233, 246 Infant mortality, 101 Infants helping and hindering, 220–221, 318 Influenza vaccine, 372–373, 566–567 Interest on credit cards, 465 Internet book prices on, 523 cell phones and, 173–174, 760 as data source, 32–33 ebook, average price, 351 and email use, 151 GDP and, 691 sexual harassment on, 197 television watching and, 751–752 time spent on, 533 uses of, 536 Investment and rate of interest, 609 Investment choices, 316 Investment risk, 285–287 iPhone apps, 335 Iraqi war and terrorism, 106–107 J Job opportunity in New York City, 187 Job positions, average time to fill, 351 Juries, composition of, 240 Juveniles in adult court, 523 K Kidnapping, 497 Kuwaiti men vs.Swedish men, 497 L Labor force, 257 Labor unions, support of, 50 Leaf litter decay, 636 Legalized abortion, 221 Life after death, belief in, 274, 405, 532, 546 Life expectancy, 91 Lifestyle choices, 31 Life support knowledge, 484 “Likes” on Facebook, 319 Linear relationship, 602 Literary Digest poll, 195 Local holiday center, 272 Loneliness, 367 Longevity of residency, 407 Lotteries, 252–253, 258, 291, 320, 350 Low-carbohydrate diets, 417 Low-fat versus low-carb diets, 186 Lung cancer, 207–208 Lung cancer and smoking, 561 Lung capacity, 523 Lung function tests (vital capacity), 498 Lung ultrasound (LUS), 523 M Maize, inheritance in, 465 Manufacturing defects, detecting, 353 Marijuana cigarettes and, 561–562 gender and, 531 heroin use and, 277 legalizing, 405 schizophrenia and, 219 use of, 685–686 Marital happiness, 547, 550–551, 553, 588 Marital status, 730 Marital status and life insurance, 524 Marketing commercials, 485 Marriage, mean age at, 42, 83, 410 Matching birthdays, 259–260 Math anxiety, 537 Medical diagnostic testing, 449, 453–454 Medical research, 540 Medical studies, skepticism about, 221 Mendelian genetics, 559–560, 586 Menopause, hormone therapy for, 485 Mensa IQ scores, 298–299 Menstruation analgesics, 536 Mental depression, 511–512 Mental Development Index, 305 Mileage of midsized cars, 522 Midsized cars’ gas mileage, 523 Mobile data costs, 50 Mobile Emergency Attendance Service (MEAS), 484 Moore’s law, 633–634 Mothers, age of, birth weight of babies of and, 732 Mountain bike prices, 138, 153, 407, 679 Movie recommendation, 399 Movies sample, 315 MP3 players owned by students, 397 Multiple-choice pop quiz, 235, 243–244 Murder rates of, 167, 589 single-parent families and, 174–175 Muscle soreness, 467 N Native American incomes, 399 Net migration of EU citizens, 466 New employees benefits, 547 Newspaper reading, 390 interpreting study reports in, 528 Iraq war influence of, 640 by students, 74–75, 110 Newspaper sales, 247 Nicotine dependence, 497 Nicotine patches for smoking cessation, 211–212 Nuclear war, probability, 233 Number of siblings, 110 Nurses’ health, 209–210 Nursing homes, 219 Nutrients and growth rates, 367 O Obesity, 187–188, 217, 257, 537 O.J Simpson, trial of, 271 Index of Applications I-11 Olympic high jump winners, 149–150, 677–678 Olympic men’s long jump distances, 167 Olympic women’s high jump records, 175 Online learning, interest in, 50 Online sections, 258 On-time performance of airlines, 91, 100 Operations growth in Luxembourg, 379 Opinion polls, 31, 36–37, 217 Opportunities for young Canadians, budget, 379 Organ transplants, 313 Outsourcing, 705, 715 Overbooking by airlines, 320 Overvote reduction, 109 P P-hacking, 456 Pain relief medication, 203 Parental support, perceived, 533 Passing scores, 275 Path to school, 316 Pelvic girdle pain, 214 Pesticide residues in food, 119–122, 587 Phone plans, family, 350 Photocopiers, failure and repair of, 270 Physical attractiveness, dating and, 537 Physical fitness, 197 Physicians’ Health Study, 218 Pizza preferences, 355–356 Placebo effect, 613–614, 619–620 Playoff games, 282–284 Political conservatism and liberalism, 114, 450–451 Political dominance, 513 Politics gender and, 571–572, 575, 586, 725–729, 733 gender and race, 570 ideology and, 575 race and, 587, 725–729, 733 student, 731 Polling data, 30, 35 See also election predictions from exit polls Pollution outliers, 99–100 Population growth, 631–632, 636, 639, 641 Poverty and age, 33–34 Precipitation, mean monthly, 305 Preferred holiday destination, 42 Pregnancy detection, 449 Pregnancy tests, 277 Presidential approval ratings, 404–405 Presidential popularity, 524 Presidential vetoes, 405 Prize drawings, 189–190 Probability estimating, 266–269 Professor ratings, 172, 197 Profit from fast food, 318 restaurant, 350 weather and farm, 292 Property taxes, 408 Prostate cancer, 276, 449 Psychomotor Development Index, 353–354 Public transportation, 82, 101 Purchasing behavior, 48 Putin approval ratings, 378 Q Quality control charts, 354 Quota sampling, 220 R Race college graduation and, 688 death penalty and, 169, 525–528, 536, 539, 570, 688 politics, gender and, 570 I-12 www.downloadslide.net Index of Applications Racial profiling, 312–313 Random digit dialing, 319 Random drug testing of air traffic controllers, 263–264 Recidivism rates, 256 Relative SAT score, 299–300 Religion, 256, 409, 432, 693, 714 Residential gas, 173 Residential racial segregation, 731 Restaurant food quality, 706 Restaurant ratings, 151 Restaurant sales, 531, 620, 667, 680 Restaurant satisfaction, 704 Rich and poor, gap between, 538 Risk, investment, 285–287 Risk aversion, 317 Rolling dice, fairness of, 227–228 Roulette, 291, 346–347, 346–348, 356, 563 S Sadness, frequency of, 407, 533 Salaries, 42, 106, 344–346 Sale price of houses, 83 Same-sex marriage, opinions of, 464–465 Sampling accuracy, 233 Sandwiches, protein in, 110, 138–139 SAT French exam and years of study, 643 SAT scores, 113, 320 SAT versus ACT scores, 305 Schizophrenia, marijuana and, 219 Seat belt use, 246, 257, 586–587 Second job for MPs, 217 Security awareness training, 214 Selective reporting, 456 Selective reporting of results, 456 Self-employment and education level, 349 Sensitivity studies, 444 September 11, 2001 attacks, 278 Sex partners, 408, 587 Sexual harassment, 197, 222 Shark attacks, 55–60, 58, 73 Sick leave, 214 Simpson’s paradox, 693 Sit-ups, running and, 150–151, 619 Sleep age and, 672 Smartphone sales, 759 Smartphone talk time, 389 Smelling and mortality, 571 Smoke alarms statistics, 256 Smoking alcohol and, 562 alcohol use and, 570–571 body mass reduction and, 747 birth weight of babies of mothers and, 732 health and, 117, 163–165 heart attacks and, 218, 220 lung cancer and, 202, 207–208, 214, 220, 276, 561 lung obstruction and, 484 marijuana and, 561–562 nicotine dependence, 497 percentage of, 405 personality and, 706 Smoking cessation antidepressants for, 200–201 financial incentives for, 43 nicotine patches for, 211–212 partner smoking effect on, 215 Social activities, 522 Softball statistics, 640, 657, 690 Space shuttle safety, 261–262, 277 Spam email, 257 Speech recognition systems, 520–521, 523 Speed dating, 306–307 Sport of curling, 246 Standby times for smartphones, 296–297 Stem cell research, 378–379, 638 STEM major recruiting, 103–105 Stock market, 234, 320, 620 Stock trading volumes, 747 Streaming television, 405 Strength estimation, 592–596, 602, 605–607, 609, 611, 615, 620, 624–626, 629–630, 638–639 Strength predictions, 666–667, 672–673, 690 Stress and depression by gender, 565 Stress at work, 528 Student debt, 353 Student loan debt, 214 Student scores, 73 Students’ shoe size, 91, 100 Study time, college GPA and, 498, 602, 610, 619, 649–650 Suicide and incurable diseases, 50 Supermarket sales, 106 Surnames, brides’ choice of, 318 T Tanning, 736–737, 740–741, 747, 752–753, 760–761 Tax audits, 238–239 Teacher salaries, 112, 529 Teaching and learning models, 214 Teaching method, 215 Tea tasting, 576–578, 583 Teenagers, risk of dying of, 571 Teeth whitening, 512 Telephone holding time, 697–698, 700, 703, 712–715, 757, 759 Television watching aggression and, 587–588 aggressive behavior and, 480–482 birth rate and, 167–168 college GPA and, 619, 640 daily, 65–66, 292, 380–381 exercise and, 602, 629 gender and, 407, 733 Internet browsing and, 751–752 marital status and, 730, 733 movie impact versus, 536 race and, 409, 532, 733 rock music impact versus, 536 Temperatures, annual average, 75, 101, 111–112, 167, 176 Temperature, average in Florida, 388 Temperature, average in United States, 388 Tennis, double faults in, 251–252 Tennis ball weights, 318 Thousands of euros, 619 Terrorism, response to, 125–126 Terrorism, government preventing, 125 Tests, guessing on, 538 Theory exam–practical exam correlation, 638 Time for weight loss, 152 Tire performance, 535 Tourism, 73 Traffic violations, 91, 101 Travel credit cards, 681–683 Triple Blood Test for Down syndrome, 249–251 2016 Irish Exit Poll, 464 Type I errors in legal verdicts, 447, 449, 467 U Unemployment of college graduates, 404 GDP and, 692 percentage, 399 rates of, 484 of youth, 92, 102, 114 Unfair wealth distribution sentiment, 314 Unusual vote totals, 146–147 U.S Department of Homeland Security, 257 Used car prices, 651, 656–657, 679–680 Used car sales, 317–318, 321 U.S presidential election of 2000, butterfly ballot and, 131–132 V Vacation day averages, 100 Vaccine effectiveness, 220 Variability of net worth, 101 Vegetarianism, 511–512 Verbal and math GRE scores, 619 Video games, 218 Video on demand, 366 Vioxx, safety of, 571 Visitor satisfaction, 649 Vitamin C, 30–31, 203 Voter turnout, 336 Voting age, 591 Voting ballots and methods, 109 W Wage discrimination, 389–390 Warming trends, 71–72 Water fluoridation, 443 Water pollution, 443, 468 Weather and farm profits, 292 Weather prediction, 318–319 Weather stations, 73 Web surfing time, 403 Weight age and, 665 in anorexic girls, 438–440, 442–444 diet and, 729 diamond, 151 and mileage, 641 predictions of, 649, 656, 658–659, 661–664, 672 scale variability, 400–402 Whooping cough eradication, 75 Wine pouring vending machines, 443 Women in defense services, 585 in government and economics, 172 infertility in, 460 as managers, 172, 432–433, 461–462 as president of US, 217 role of, 409 satisfaction with appearance, 410 working, birth rate and, 174 working outside the home, 365, 405, 586 work week of, 443 Work agreement for nannies, 405 Working mothers, 408 World Cup soccer, 233 Worldwide Internet and Facebook use, 127–131, 134–135 Y Youth professional football, 366 Z Zika virus, 465 www.downloadslide.net Credits Screenshots from Minitab Courtesy of Minitab Corporation Screenshots from Texas Instruments Courtesy of Texas Instruments Screenshots of Shiny Apps Created with RStudio® and Shiny™ Cover Roger L Wollernberg/Newscom p 189 Shevelev Vladimir/Dreamstime LLC p 195 Pearson Education, Inc p 200 Paul Matthew Photography/Shutterstock p 207 WavebreakmediaMicro/Fotolia p 208 Mihai Simonia/Shutterstock p 209 Rob Marmion/ Shutterstock p 211 Dalaprod/Fotolia p 217 © ESPN com (2012), (graphic feature used with permission) Vipada Kanajod/Shutterstock.com PreFACe p 25 (from top to bottom) Alan Agresti; Christine Franklin; Sophie Klingenberg ChAPter p 27 (from left to right) Ra2 Studio/Fotolia; Adimas/Fotolia; Pershing/Fotolia; Triff/Shutterstock p 28 Ra2 Studio/Fotolia p 35 S44/ZUMA Press/ Newscom p 37 Richard Levine/Alamy p 39 Forestpath/Shutterstock p 45 Claudiodivizia/123RF ChAPter p 52 Adimas/Fotolia p 55 Davidk79/ Fotolia p 58 Davidk79/Fotolia p 61 Branislav Senic/iStock/Getty Images p 70 From Internet World Stats Usage and Population Statistics Copyright © 2000–2011 Miniwatts Marketing Group p 71 Sborisov/123RF p 72 Pearson Education, Inc p 78 Wrangler/Shutterstock p 86 Andy Dean Photography/ Shutterstock p 94 Matka_Wariatka/Fotolia p 99 Henryk Sadura/Shutterstock p 106 Pearson Education, Inc p 106 Quote by John Tukey p 106 © THE SCOTSMAN PUBLICATIONS LIMITED p 107 BBC License Fee from Evening Standard Copyright, November 29, 2006 by London Evening Standard Used by permission of London Evening Standard p 109 From Statistical Science Vol 17, pp 27–31 Copyright © 2002 Institute of Mathematical Statistics Used by permission of Institute of Mathematical Statistics ChAPter p 117 Pershing/Fotolia p 119 WB/ Shutterstock p 121 Asharkyu/Shutterstock p 127 NetPhotos/Alamy p 132 Gary I Rothstein/AP Images p 139 Cafaphotos/Fotolia p 142 Bill Florence/ Shutterstock p 145 Tupungato/Shutterstock p 149 Technotr/E+/Getty Images p 154 4x6/Getty Images p 162 Jiri Foltyn/Shutterstock p 163 Kevin George/ Dreamstime LLC p 166 Originally published in Florida Law Review Michael Radelet and Glenn L Pierce, Choosing Those Who Will Die: Race and the Death Penalty in Florida, vol 43, Florida Law Review (1991) p 172 From African Droughts and Dust Transport to the Caribbean: Climate Change Implications, by Joseph M Prospero, Peter J Lamb in SCIENCE, Vol 302, pp 1050–1053 Copyright © 2003 by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Used by permission of American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) pp 175–176 Copyright ©1996 Marilyn vos Savant Initially Published in Parade Magazine All rights reserved p 176 Excerpt from Domestic Dogs and Human Health: An Overview by Deborah L Wells in British Journal of Health Psychology Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc Copyright © 2007 ChAPter p 179 Triff/Shutterstock p 182 Monkey Business Images/Dreamstime LLC p 186 ChAPter p 225 (from left to right) Anna Galkovskaya/E+/Getty Images; Bikeriderlondon/ Shutterstock; Steve Debenport/E+/Getty Images p 226 Anna Galkovskaya/E+/Getty Images p 228 Excerpt from Ainslie’s Complete Hoyle by Tom Ainslie.Published by Simon and Schuster Copyright © 2003 p 230 Tomo/Shutterstock p 234 © The Vanguard Group, Inc., used with permission p 236 Alexander Raths/Fotolia p 238 Jill Fromer/E+/Getty Images p 240 Michelle Milano/Shutterstock p 249 Dizzy/iStock/Getty Images p 252 (from top to bottom) Vlad Mereuta/Shutterstock; Zentilia/Shutterstock p 259 MSPhotographic/Fotolia p 261 Mikephotos/Dreamstime LLC p 263 Angelo Giampiccolo/Fotolia p 267 Janet Wall/Fotolia p 276 Excerpt from Calculated Risks: How To Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer Published by Simon and Schuster Copyright © 2002 p 278 Excerpt from Calculated Risks: How To Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer Published by Simon and Schuster Copyright © 2002 p 278 Excerpt from Calculated Risks: How To Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer Published by Simon and Schuster Copyright © 2002 ChAPter p 280 Bikeriderlondon/Shutterstock p 282 Modestil/Fotolia p 285 Nikada/Getty Images p 286 Noamfein/Dreamstime LLC p 289 Oliveromg/ Shutterstock p 293 Matthias Buehner/Fotolia p 298 Jaimie Duplass/Shutterstock p 301 Lightpoet/Fotolia p 307 Fuse/Getty Images p 309 Pressmaster/Fotolia p 312 Ilya Andriyanov/Shutterstock p 322 Sozaijiten ChAPter p 324 Steve Debenport/E+/Getty Images p 327 Screenshot from Random.org Copyright © 1998–2015 Random.org p 331 Kennytong/Fotolia p 348 Steve Mason/Getty Images ChAPter p 359 (from left to right) Blvdone/ Shutterstock; Norbel/Fotolia; Matt Burgess/123RF; Alexbrylovhk/Fotolia p 360 Blvdone/Shutterstock p 365 wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock p 369 Justasc/ Shutterstock p 372 Wallenrock/Shutterstock p 377 Pearson Education, Inc p 380 Scyther5/Shutterstock p 388 (from left to right) Pearson Education, Inc.; Matt Burgess/123RF p 391 Karin Hildebrand Lau/ Shutterstock p 395 123RF p 397 Ionescu Bogdan/ Fotolia p 401 Tab62/Fotolia ChAPter p 412 Norbel/Fotolia p 414 Bizoo_n/ Fotolia p 418 Jovan Nikolic/Shutterstock p 422 Cameron Cross/Shutterstock p 434 Alexey Stiop/ Shutterstock p 447 Junial Enterprises/Shutterstock p 450 (from top to bottom) Christopher Halloran/ Shutterstock; Kurniawan1972/Dreamstime LLC Shutterstock p 455 Pearson Education, Inc p 453 ChAPter 10 p 470 Alexbrylovhk/Fotolia p 471 Copyright © 2009 Jim Borgman Distributed by Universal Uclick Reprinted with permission All rights reserved p 472 Pearson Education, Inc p 478 Excerpt from The Seven Warning Signs of Bogus Science Published by The Chronicle of Higher Education, © 2003 p 481 CandyBox Images/Shutterstock p 493 Lucidwaters/ Dreamstime p 500 Capifrutta/Shutterstock p 517 Excerpt from Profiles in Driver Distraction: Effects of Cell Phone Conversations on Younger and Older Drivers by David L Strayer and Frank A Drews in Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Vol 46, pp 666–675 Published by the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, © 2004 p 518 Igor Zh/Shutterstock p 526 Shutterstock ChAPter 11 p 541 (from left to right) Rawpixel/ Fotolia; Tyler Olson/Shutterstock; Andy Dean Photography/Shutterstock; Diego Cervo/Shutterstock; Travnikovstudio/Fotolia p 542 Rawpixel/Fotolia p 550 Andresr/Shutterstock p 557 Shutterstock p 565 Image Source/Getty Images p 576 Piyachok Thawornmat/Shutterstock p 580 B Christopher/Alamy ChAPter 12 p 592 Tyler Olson/Shutterstock p 600 Hxdbzxy/Shutterstock p 605 Jack Hollingsworth/ Photodisc/Getty Images p 613 Michaeljung/ Fotolia p 618 Pearson Education, Inc p 622 Andres Rodriguez/Dreamstime LLC p 631 Adisa/ Shutterstock p 633 From Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits by Gordon E Moore in Electronics Vol 38 No 8, pp 140–143 Copyright © 1965 by MDPI AG p 634 Excerpt from Gordon Moore: The Man Whose Name Means Progress by Rachel Courtland Copyright © 2015 by IEEE Spectrum p 638 Excerpt from Variation in Cancer Risk Among Tissues can be Explained by the Number of Stem Cell Divisions by Cristian Tomasetti, Bert Vogelstein in Science Vol 347 No 6217 pp 104–107 Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science, © 2015 p 641 Quote by George Edward Pelham Box ChAPter 13 p 644 Andy Dean Photography/ Shutterstock p 646 StockLite/Shutterstock p 658 Muzsy/Shutterstock p 677 Brenda Carson/ Shutterstock p 682 Olli Wang/Fotolia p 688 Originally published in Florida Law Review Michael Radelet and Glenn L Pierce, Choosing Those Who Will Die: Race and the Death Penalty in Florida, vol 43, Florida Law Review (1991) ChAPter 14 p 695 Diego Cervo/Shutterstock p 697 Mr.Markin/Fotolia p 707 Dmitry Berkut/ Shutterstock p 716 Maksud/Shutterstock p 721 Auremar/Shutterstock ChAPter 15 p 736 Travnikovstudio/Fotolia p 740 Sandra Cunningham/Shutterstock p 746 Susan Montgomery/Shutterstock C-1 www.downloadslide.net This page intentionally left blank www.downloadslide.net A Guide to Learning From the Art in This Text We use color to help distinguish between the different shapes that graphs may take: and between important measures such as the sample median and sample mean median = 1.8 Tails Symmetric Skewed to the left Skewed to the right 0.0 The observation 16.9 is an outlier mean = 4.6 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Per Capita CO2 Emissions (in metric tons) Women (mean µ = 65, std dev σ = 3.5) Men (mean µ = 70, std dev σ = 4.0) The labels on graphs use the following colors to help you distinguish between them: • Sample Median (Q2): • Sample Mean x: 60 65 70 75 80 85 Throughout the book, we use color consistently to designate the shape of a graph: • Left skewed: Tan • Right skewed: Purple • Symmetric: Green • Normal curves: Blue We show Sampling Distributions of Sample Proportions in blue because the normal distribution is used to n describe the sampling distribution of p Sample Statistic Population Parameter Mean x m Standard Deviation s s Proportion pn p We show Sampling Distributions of Sample Means in green because the symmetric t distribution is used to describe the sampling distribution of x Sampling distribution of x– when H0 is true 0.95 probability the sample proportion p falls within 1.96 standard errors (se) of the population proportion p x–-values that give t < –2.0 0.025 Population proportion Observed p p – 1.96(se) p Sample proportion 0.025 x– µ0 – 2se Observed x– 1.96 (se) p + 1.96(se) x–-values that give t > 2.0 0.025 0.025 p p µ0 Margin of error Actual confidence interval m Figure 8.3 Sampling Distribution of Sample Proportion pn For large Red and between some of the most important statistics and parameters Height 55 Green random samples, the sampling distribution is normal around the population proportion p, so pn has probability 0.95 of falling within 1.96(se) of p As a consequence, pn { 1.96(se) is a 95% confidence interval for p Question Why is the confidence interval pn { 1.96(se) instead of p { 1.96(se)? x– – 2se x– + 2se µ0 + 2se This particular 95% confidence interval does not contain µ0 m Figure 9.8 Relation between Confidence Interval and Significance Test With large samples, if the sample mean falls more than about two standard errors from m0, then m0 does not fall in the 95% confidence interval and also m0 is rejected in a test at the 0.05 significance level Question Inference about proportions does not have an exact equivalence between confidence intervals and tests Why? (Hint: Are the same standard error values used in the two methods?) Read and think about the questions that appear in selected figures The answers are given at the beginning of each Chapter Review section D-1 www.downloadslide.net Dataset Files Chapter FL student survey Chapter Alligator Food Animals Baseball Hitters Central Park Yearly Temps Cereal Cigarette Tax CO2 Europe & America Energy Consumption Europe CO2 FL Student Survey GA Student Survey Heights HS Graduation Hurricanes Iris Newnan GA Temperatures Pertussis SAT 2010 Sharks Teacher Salary TV Hours Youth Unemployment Diamonds FL Crime Fuel GA Student Survey High Jump HS Graduation Rates Human Development Internet Use Long Jump Mountain Bikes Newnan GA Temps NL Team Statistics US Statewide Crime US Temperatures Zagat Boston Chapter Inns Chapter Email Hours (GSS 2012) FL Student Survey Mountain Bikes TV Hours (long format) WWW Hours Chapter 10 Chapter 13 Anorexia Anorexia (long format) FL Student Survey Number of Kids Cell Phone (wide format) Cell Phone (long format) Reaction Time (wide format) Reaction Time (long format) Stick Figures Text & Graph Time on Facebook (F, S) TV Hours by Race Work Week (GSS 2014) WWW Hours Female College Athletes Credit Card & Income FL Crime Georgia Student Survey High Jump HS Female Athletes House Selling Prices OR Mountain Bike Quality & Productivity Softball Used Cars Fertility & Literacy FL Student Survey Chapter 11 Benford Diamonds Happiness & Income (2012) Headache Religiosity Chapter 12 Chapter 14 Anorexia Anorexia (long format) Energy Drink French Cuisine Georgia Student Survey House Selling Prices OR Protein & Weight Gain Time on Facebook (all) TV Hours (2014) Chapter Chapter AL Team Statistics Animals Buchanan Butterfly Ballot Car Weight & Mileage Central Park Yearly Temps Cereal Anorexia Anorexia (long format) FL Student Survey Number of Kids Political Views 40-Hour Work Week (GSS 2012) Car Weight & Mileage Georgia Student Survey HS Female Athletes House Selling Prices FL Male Athlete Strength Specs Cellphones Stemcells FL Student Survey Chapter Chapter Chapters and Chapter 11 Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion Random Numbers Binomial Distribution Inference for a Proportion Illustrating Coverage t Distribution Inference for a Mean Bootstrap Errors and Power Chi-squared Distribution Chi-squared Test Fisher’s Exact Test Permutation Test for Independence Chapter 15 Anorexia Anorexia (long format) FL Student Survey Georgia Student Survey Reaction Time (wide format) Reaction Time (long format) Web Apps Chapter Mean vs Median Explore Categorical Data Explore Quantitative Data Chapter Explore Linear Regression Fit Linear Regression Guess the Correlation Chapter Normal Distribution Chapter Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion Sampling Distribution of a Sample Mean Chapter 14 Chapter 10 ANOVA Comparing two Proportions Comparing two Means Permutation Test To access datasets and web apps please go to www.pearsonglobaleditions.com/agresti D-2 www.downloadslide.net A Guide to Choosing a Statistical Method CaTegoRICaL ReSPoNSe VaRIabLe (aNaLyzINg PRoPoRTIoNS) If there is only one categorical response variable, use • Descriptive methods of Chapter (Sections 2.1 and 2.2) • Inferential methods of Section 8.2 (confidence interval) and Section 9.2 (significance test) for proportions To compare proportions of a categorical response variable for two or more groups of a categorical explanatory variable, use • Descriptive methods of Chapter (Sections 3.1 and 3.4) • Inferential methods of Sections 10.1 and 10.4 for comparing proportions between two groups • Inferential methods of Chapter 11 for comparing two or more proportions or testing the independence of two categorical variables If working with a binary response variable with quantitative and/or categorical explanatory variables (predictors), use logistic regression methods of Section 13.6 QuaNTITaTIVe ReSPoNSe VaRIabLe (aNaLyzINg MeaNS) If there is only one quantitative response variable, use • Descriptive methods of Chapter • Inferential methods of Section 8.3 (confidence interval) and Section 9.3 (significance test) for a mean To compare means of a quantitative response variable for two groups of a categorical explanatory variable, use • Descriptive methods of Chapter • Inferential methods of Sections 10.2 and 10.3 for independent samples • Inferential methods of Section 10.4 for dependent samples • Nonparametric tests in Section 15.1 for independent samples or Section 15.2 for dependent samples To compare several means of a quantitative response variable for two or more groups of a categorical explanatory variable, use • ANOVA methods of Chapter 14 for independent samples, which are equivalent to regression methods with indicator variables for categorical predictors • Nonparametric methods from Section 15.2 To analyze the association of a quantitative response variable and quantitative explanatory variable, use regression and correlation • Descriptive methods of Chapters and 12 • Inferential methods of Chapter 12 (Sections 12.2 and 12.4) To analyze the association of a quantitative response variable and several explanatory variables (predictors), use • Multiple regression methods of Chapter 13 (Sections 13.1–13.4) for several quantitative predictors • Multiple regression methods of Section 13.5 with indicator variables for categorical predictors D-3 www.downloadslide.net Summary of Key Notations and Formulas TeRM FoRMuLa/NoTaTIoN ChaPTeR PaGe n 39 77 85 99 299 135 yn = a + bx, 139 y - yn 145 147 Sample size Σx x = n Sample mean (pronounced xbar) Sample standard deviation z-Score Σ(x - x ) s = C n - observed value - mean standard deviation x - m z@score = s z@score = Correlation coefficient Σzx zy n - r = = Regression line y - y x - x Σa ba b n - sx sy Residual Slope and y intercept Events b = sy sx b and a = y - b(x) A, B, C 236 P(A) 237 Complement of event A (the outcomes not in A) Ac 239 Conditional probability of event A, given event B ( | denotes “given”) P(A | B) 248 Probability that a random variable takes value x (pronounced P of x) Probability of event A P(x) 281 Population mean (mu) m 285 Population standard deviation (sigma) s 286 Probabilities of the two possible outcomes of a binary variable p, - p 306 Sample proportion (p-hat) n p 368 Standard error se 368 Margin of error m 364, 407 382 t-Score with right-tail probability 0.025 t.025 Degrees of freedom df 382 Null hypothesis H0 414 Alternative hypothesis Ha 414 Null hypothesis value of proportion p0 419 435 Null hypothesis value of mean m0 Significance level (alpha) a 444 Population mean of differences md 10 515 Sample mean of differences xd 10 515 11 549 Σ(y - yn )2 3, 12 146, 598 my = a + bx 12 600 r2 3, 12 148, 610 Chi-squared test statistic Residual sum of squares Population straight-line regression equation X2 = Σ (observed count - expected count)2 expected count r-Squared-proportional reduction in prediction error Total sum of squares Σ(y - y ) 12 614 Exponential regression model my = abx 12 632 Multiple regression model my = a + b x + b x + b x 13 645 Multiple correlation R 13 652 R-squared proportional reduction in prediction error R2 13 653 F test statistic F 13 659 13 681 Logistic regression equation D-4 p = ea + bx + ea + bx www.downloadslide.net This page intentionally left blank www.downloadslide.net This page intentionally left blank www.downloadslide.net This page intentionally left blank www.downloadslide.net This page intentionally left blank ... wife and four children 25 This page intentionally left blank Part Gathering and Exploring Data Chapter Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning from Data Chapter Exploring Data with Graphs and Numerical... calculated from data But statistics as a field is a way of thinking about data and quantifying uncertainty, not a maze of numbers and messy formulas Statistics Statistics is the art and science of designing.. .Statistics The Art and Science of Learning from Data Fourth Edition Global Edition Alan Agresti University of Florida Christine Franklin University of Georgia Bernhard Klingenberg