How do womens education and career affect their decision on marriage and motherhood a case study for vietnam

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM – NETHERLANDS PROGRAM FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HOW DO WOMEN’S EDUCATION AND CAREER AFFECT THEIR DECISION ON MARRIAGE AND MOTHERHOOD? A CASE STUDY FOR VIETNAM BY TRUONG UYEN PHUONG Academic Supervisor Dr TRUONG DANG THUY DECEMBER 15th, 2016 Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The first thing I would like to express is my deepest gratitude to my academic supervisor Dr Truong Dang Thuy Thanks for your enthusiastic, patient and dedicated support for guiding me to implement this thesis and overcome many difficulties during the entire process Once again, I am really appreciated your valuable encouragement I would like to give my appreciation to all lecturers in Vietnam – Netherlands Program, who have provided me such useful knowledge that I can applied to this thesis as well as in my future’s job I am grateful to all staffs of Vietnam – Netherlands Program and all of my friends for your help I deeply treasure all the moments we have and share with each other Yet I have still had a lot of mistakes, I really expect all teachers to give sincere remarks to me to be better And the last one is our best wishes to all of you Page ABSTRACT Nowadays, time to marry has been earlier among women in developing countries, and time of entry into first marriage has each particular effect on health issue of women and their children However, there are not many researches focusing on this area, especially for the case of Southeast Asia countries Therefore, this paper is designated for filling this gap, and I choose the case of Vietnam for analysis to investigate the association between social factors such as education, ethnic, religion, and income and on women’s first marriage and childbirth decisions The dataset is established from a random online survey with 505 respondents including men and women, but the purpose of this paper is not suitable for men, then male’s respondents are automatically excluded from the dataset Consequently, my sample consists of 304 women aged 18 to 66, which is divided into birth cohort in order to find whether there is any difference in marriage or rearing children among generations Survival model analysis is applied to give the probability of getting marriage at a specific time of women’s life The study found that educational level, income, time of first intercourse, promotion achievement have significant impacts on women’s marriage decision and fertility Page CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 RESEARCH PROBLEM 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 THEORETICAL LITERATURE 11 2.1.1 Theory of Marriage & The division of Labor 11 2.1.2 Theory of Marriage Market 16 2.1.3 Theory of Fertility 18 2.2 REVIEW OF EMPIRICAL STUDIES 21 CHAPTER 3: DATA AND METHODOLOGY 3.1 DATA 25 3.2 METHODOLOGY 25 3.3 VARIABLES’S DEFINITION 27 CHAPTER 4: EMPIRICAL RESULT 4.1 EMPIRICAL RESULT 40 4.1.1.Statistics 40 4.2 RESULTS 71 4.2.1.Result for First-Marriage 71 4.2.2.Result for First-Birth 74 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION 5.1 MAIN FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATION 78 5.2 LIMITATION AND FURTHER STUDIES 80 REFERENCE 82 APPENDIX 84 Page LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 First-Marriage Variables Description (Education and Career Variables) Table 3.2 First-Marriage Variables Description (Social Background Variables) Table 3.3 First-Birth Variables Description (Education and Career Variables) Table 3.4 First-Birth Variables Description (Social Background Variables) Table 3.5 First-Birth Variables Description (Social Background Variables) Table 4.1 Summary statistics of First marriage Table 4.2 Summary statistics of Women’s educational level at first marriage Table 4.3 Summary statistics of Women’s promotion achievement at first marriage Table 4.4 Summary statistics of Job movement at first marriage Table 4.5 Summary statistics of Job at first marriage Table 4.6 Summary statistics of Birth cohort Table 4.7 Summary statistics of Residence at first marriage and first birth Table 4.8 Summary statistics of being a chief income earner at first marriage Table 4.9 Summary statistics of acestor worship at first marriage and first birth Table 4.10 Summary statistics of Religion at first marriage and first birth Table 4.11 Summary statistics of Birth order at first marriage and first birth Table 4.12 Summary statistics of Father’s education at first marriage and first birth Table 4.13 Summary statistics of Mother’s education at first marriage and first birth Table 4.14 Summary statistics of Father’s job at first marriage and first birth Table 4.15 Summary statistics of Mother’s job at first marriage and first birth Table 4.16 Summary statistics of First birth Table 4.17 Summary statistics of Educational level at first birth Table 4.18 Summary statistics of Promotion achievement at First birth Table 4.19 Summary statistics of Job movement at First birth Table 4.20 Summary statistics of Job at First birth Table 4.21 Summary statistics of Living arrangement at First birth Table 4.22 Summary statistics of Housework regularity at First birth Table 4.23 Summary statistics of Abortion at First birth Table 4.24 Summary statistics of Contraceptive knowledge at First birth Table 4.25 Summary statistics of Age at First intercourse Page Table 4.26 Summary statistics of Contraceptive type at First birth Table 4.27 Summary statistics of Women’s wealth at first marriage and first birth Table 4.28 Results for First marriage by Exponential and Cox regression Model Table 4.29 Results for First birth by Exponential and Cox regression Model (Educational and Career opportunities variables) Table 4.30 Results for First marriage by Exponential and Cox regression Model (Social background variables) Graph Probability of remaining single by women’s age Graph Probability of remaining single by women’s birth cohort Graph Probability of remaining single by women’s educational level Graph Probability of remaining single by women’s job Graph Probability of remaining single by women’s promotion achievement Graph Probability of remaining single by women’s job movement Graph Probability of not having first child by Age Graph Probability of not having first child by birth cohort Graph Probability of not having first child by women’s education Graph 10 Probability of not having first child by women’s job Graph 11 Probability of not having first child by women’s promotion achievement Graph 12 Probability of not having first child by women’s job movement Graph 13 Probability of marriage by educational level Graph 14 Probability of marriage by promotion achievement Graph 15 Probability of marriage by Job movement Graph 16 Probability of marriage by Job Graph 17 Probability of fertility by educational level Graph 18 Probability of fertility by promotion achievement Graph 19 Probability of fertility by job movement Graph 20 Probability of fertility by Job Page Chapter Introduction 1.1 RESEARCH PROBLEM In recent years, economists have frequently used economic theory to explain the behavior outside economic sector, for example, crime, education, politics, corruption, fertility and so on Yet, one type of behavior has been paid less attention is the behavior of marriage Nowadays, young women are more different than the previous generation since they are able to profit from education The occupational structure of the labor force is being transformed, and the number of women pursuing higher education has risen, then the relationship between women’s economic independence (resulting from higher education and job offering) and age of first marriage has been one of the central topics among demographers According to many researchers for example Elder, 1972; Waite & Spitze, 1981, the traditional path of determining age at first marriage among women is through an array of variables, such as ethnicity, place of birth, birth order, number of siblings, women’s parents’ social class Over a long period of time, the scope of this area has been realized and the concentration of some papers relating to this field has transferred from a mere determinant to the effects of educational and career achievement on the time of entry into first marriage (Bloom, 1990; Blossfeld and Huinink, 1991, Oppenheimer, 1997) This trend in research analysis is properly comprehensible with visible evidence of postwar era in numerous countries The more investment in education and opportunities for employment has induced women to look for work in labor market, which leads to releasing from financial support of their husbands and great success in career Moreover, marriage age has increased significantly in many developed countries around the world According to U.S Census Bureau, 2010, the median marriage age for women and men in 1950-1960 Page was 20 and 23 respectively; it increased to 27 and 29 in 2013 The situation is more serious for the case of Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, United Kingdom, South Korea, Taiwan and many other countries with the range from 29 to 32 A great number of studies had been done for Western Germany, for instance, the paper of Diekmann (1990) found that the expansion of education has move the median age of marry upward almost one year Although various researches have been conducted to identify the main factors of this trend among advanced countries, (e.g Blossfeld & Huinink, 1991; Cherlin, 1980; Diekmann, 1989; Elder & Rockwell, 1976; Hoem, 1985; Hoem & Hoem, 1987; Hogan, 1978; Huinink, 1987; Marini, 1985), very few studies are undertaken for less developed countries Finally, marriage and fertility are connected processes, assuming that fertility often takes place within marriage and contraceptive practices are non-existent, there is an inverse relationship between time at first marriage and fertility Specially, in a Southeast Asian country like Vietnam, where traditional value is highly evaluated, woman must be married before having her first baby As educational level affects family formation, it also has direct impact on pregnancy decision Women’s increased control over fertility, a better chance to access to higher education, and a fall in discrimination will offer women a stable income, Goldin and Katz (2002), Blau and Kahn (1997, 2000), so they tend to earn more and more to prepare for children’s life In Viet Nam, the age of first marriage of women is 22.8 years of age This figure did not change in the last one and a half decade (source), while that of men increased from 25.2 to 26.2 from 1999 to 2009 Age of first marriage of Vietnamese women is comparable to Southeast Asian countries, for example Cambodia Thailand 21, Malaysia 25.7, Indonesia 22.3, but quite low comparing to that of developed countries, for example Canada 29.1, UK 30 and the Netherlands 30.4 Women in these developed countries obviously have higher education and career opportunities compared to Vietnamese women One question arises is that whether Vietnamese women delay their optimal time for first marriage and birth change when having more education and career opportunities And what is the association Page between education and delayed first marriage and childbirth? The answers to this question is quite important for a range of policies, including family planning, schooling and education services, and the planning of health care and child care services This paper is also to find out the answer for the questions and help to diminish the anxiety and distress women have to encounter when their time of first children is delayed more than they or society expects 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study focuses on the question of how the improvement in women’s education affects their marriage behavior and child-bearing decision, which is built on the “New home economics” theory A highly positive relation between years of schooling and marriage age is broadly accept; in other words, higher educational level is a causal factor for marriage postponing We will take into account some hypothesis such as “independence hypothesis”, “specialization hypothesis”, “human capital effect”, “institution effect” in order to answer the basic question is whether higher education level delays marriage or if it also reduces marriage intensity In order to answer this question, I use the technique of “Survival analysis” to examine how the probability of entry into first marriage and motherhood changes over ages Particularly in this study, the application of survival analysis will help investigating how education and career change the rate of women entering first marriage and motherhood This is to provide information on the potential benefits of policies that improve women education and career opportunities In this paper, I intend to conduct an online survey for collecting data since there are no available sources on the needed information for this estimation, particularly the data on age at first marriage or first birth of women Based on economic theory on marriage or childbearing and previous empirical study, I identified several variables, including age-independence, social class, level of education, and participation in the educational system and cohort membership in the analyses These variables are asked directly in the questionnaire and expected respondents are women aged from 18 or higher Page This study is designed into main parts to theoretically and empirically analyze how women education or career development as well as social background affect to their decision on marriage and childrearing Chapter postulates the social framework of theory that this paper is relied on Particularly, the most noticeable theory is the “New home economics” of Gary Becker (1981), which shed light on the determinants of marriage and demand for children Chapter represents the pattern through which data on women is collected and variables definition as well as model estimation to contribute a reliable implication on this area Chapter provides comprehensive results for the relationship that we have supposed from the beginning until this part It is expected to be consistent with the available theory Chapter gives a final conclusion based on the transparent results in part 4, from this perception; this paper will commit its limitation and infer some further studies Page 10 Pro (%) Probability of getting marriage across Cohort by Father's education 100 90 80 70 Primary or lower 60 50 40 33,33 40 30 28,57 Highschool 33,33 26,67 16,67 20 10 Secondary 46,15 42,86 33,33 25 College&Uni 25 20 16,67 Master or higher 5,88 0 0 0 18-24(1992-1998) 25-29(1987-1991) 30-35(1981-1986) 36-66(1950-1980) Birth-Cohort Chart 27 Probability of getting marriage across Cohort by Father's education Page 114 Probability of getting marriage across Birth-Cohort by Religion Pro (%) 100 100 90 80 70 60 Non-religious 47,83 50 Buddist Christian 40 30 30 25 25 23,4 18,18 17,65 14,29 20 12,5 10 0 18-24(1992-1998) 25-29(1987-1991) 30-35(1981-1986) 36-66(1950-1980) Birth-Cohort Chart 28 Probability of getting marriage across Birth-Cohort by Religion Pro (%) 100 Probability of getting marriage across Birth-Cohort by Ethnic 100 90 80 66,67 70 60 50 Kinh 40 33,33 29,87 Chinese & Muong 30 20,41 15,79 20 8,37 10 0 18-24(1992-1998) 25-29(1987-1991) 30-35(1981-1986) 36-66(1950-1980) Birth-Cohort Chart 29 Probability of getting marriage across Birth-Cohort by Ethnic Page 115 Probability of getting marriage across Birth-Cohort by Job Pro (%) 100 90 Unemployed/House wife/Unskilled labor 83,33 80 Office worker 70 60 60 Manager or Owner 50 44,44 40 33,33 30 20 24,07 20 17,14 14,29 Others 25 20 13,33 12,5 10 0 18-24(1992-1998) 25-29(1987-1991) 30-35(1981-1986) 36-66(1950-1980) Birth-Cohort Chart 30 Probability of getting marriage across Birth-Cohort by Job Page 116 Probability of having children by Father social class at first birth across Birth-Cohort Pro(%) 100 100 100 90 80 75 71,43 70 80 Primary or lower 60 Secondary 60 Highschool 50 40 33,33 40 30 20 10 16,67 0 0 College&Uni Master or higher 22,22 14,81 7,69 8,7 0 0 18-24(1992-1998) 25-29(1987-1991) 30-35(1981-1986) 36-66(1950-1980) Birth-Cohort Chart 31 Probability of having children by Father social class at first birth across Birth-Cohort Page 117 vif Variable educationa~l promotiona~e jobmovemen~e jobatfirst~e workexperi~e residence cohort chiefincom~e numberofsi~e worshipatf~e religionat~e birthorder livingarra~e fathersedu~n mothersedu~n fathersjob mothersjob Mean VIF VIF 1/VIF 2.78 2.43 1.25 1.26 0.360335 0.411418 0.799007 0.796348 1.84 1.58 4.48 1.47 0.543749 0.632495 0.223182 0.680706 1.93 2.35 4.28 1.22 2.00 1.16 0.517280 0.425237 0.233613 0.820055 0.500488 0.860987 1.26 1.22 0.790877 0.818820 1.29 1.46 1.34 0.776249 0.686479 0.745638 2.29 2.11 3.45 0.437052 0.474802 0.290168 1.96 2.22 2.80 0.509571 0.451090 0.357564 1.62 1.51 0.617359 0.660390 1.77 1.41 0.564240 0.709581 1.99 Page 118 vif Variable educationa~h promotiona~h jobmovemen~h jobatfirst~h workexperi~e residence cohort contributi~b houseworka~h religionat~e birthorder livingarra~h fathersedu~n mothersedu~n fathersjob mothersjob abortion firstinter~e contracep~ge contracep~pe Mean VIF VIF 1/VIF 2.92 2.59 1.31 1.26 0.342881 0.385487 0.763418 0.794402 1.88 1.62 4.37 1.43 0.532034 0.617038 0.229024 0.698744 2.11 2.73 4.58 1.22 1.20 0.473955 0.366916 0.218552 0.817485 0.832438 1.31 1.20 0.763988 0.833451 1.28 1.38 1.31 0.782176 0.726760 0.760687 2.44 2.17 3.53 0.410329 0.459960 0.283094 1.95 2.10 2.76 0.513460 0.475222 0.361893 1.65 1.54 0.607782 0.648651 1.81 1.48 1.21 0.553615 0.677531 0.826574 5.62 7.40 1.17 0.178000 0.135173 0.857144 7.21 3.74 2.78 0.138756 0.267563 0.359634 2.46 Page 119 Page 120 incomeatfi~e educationa~l promotiona~e jobmovemen~e jobatfirst~e workexperi~e residence cohort chiefincom~e numberofsi~e worshipatf~e religionat~e birthorder livingarra~e fathersedu~n mothersedu~n fathersjob mothersjob 1.0000 0.2452 0.3400 0.1368 0.3566 -0.1055 0.0526 0.0311 0.1315 -0.1511 -0.0545 -0.0609 -0.0961 -0.0721 0.2323 0.0866 0.0580 0.0049 1.0000 0.0751 0.1473 0.1078 -0.3187 0.0986 -0.1460 -0.0372 -0.3161 -0.0381 -0.1685 -0.1452 -0.1701 0.3067 0.2902 0.1148 0.0661 1.0000 0.2490 0.2279 -0.0674 -0.0470 -0.0196 0.1532 -0.0138 -0.0527 0.0856 -0.0308 -0.1459 -0.0141 -0.0574 -0.0048 -0.0714 1.0000 0.2674 -0.0902 -0.0324 -0.0503 0.0882 -0.0306 -0.0095 -0.0471 -0.0510 -0.1095 0.0807 0.0108 0.0314 -0.0327 1.0000 0.0066 0.0389 0.0542 0.0452 -0.0792 -0.0133 0.0342 -0.1019 0.0188 0.1961 0.1667 0.1776 0.0728 1.0000 0.0312 0.7658 0.1349 0.4725 0.0456 0.0485 0.1817 0.1444 -0.0959 -0.1443 -0.1145 0.0132 1.0000 0.0275 -0.0552 -0.2746 0.0442 0.0411 -0.0964 0.3522 0.2665 0.2864 0.1193 0.1212 1.0000 0.1821 0.3095 0.0679 0.0185 0.1364 0.1189 0.0075 -0.0268 -0.0981 -0.0079 1.0000 -0.0072 -0.0695 0.0160 -0.1356 -0.0014 -0.0584 -0.1647 -0.1256 -0.1057 1.0000 0.0487 0.2110 0.3911 -0.0965 -0.2997 -0.3722 -0.0504 -0.0276 1.0000 -0.1106 0.0652 0.0691 -0.1092 -0.0679 0.0066 -0.0152 1.0000 0.1443 0.0680 -0.1476 -0.1560 -0.0352 -0.0344 1.0000 0.0042 -0.1090 -0.1653 0.0563 0.0089 1.0000 0.0190 -0.0000 0.0423 -0.0112 1.0000 0.6212 1.0000 0.2700 0.1203 1.0000 0.0565 0.1375 0.3860 1.0000 income~e educat~l promot~e jobmov~e jobatf~e workex~e reside~e cohort chiefi~e number~e worshi~e r~natf~e birtho~r living~e father~n mother~n father~b mother~b streg incomeatfirstmarriage i.educationallevel promotionatfirstmarriage jobmovementatfirstmarriage i.jobatfirstmarri > age workexperience residence i.cohort chiefincomeearneratfirstmarriage numberofsiblingsatfirstmarriage worshipatfirs > tmarriage i.religionatfirstmarriage i.birthorder livingarrangementatfirstmarriage i.fatherseducation i.motherseduca > tion i.fathersjob i.mothersjob, dist(exp) nohr robust failure _d: marry analysis time _t: time Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -235.77587 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -215.95095 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -197.80426 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -197.36136 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -197.35956 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -197.35956 Exponential regression log relative-hazard form No of subjects = 303 No of failures = 115 Time at risk = 2302 Log pseudolikelihood = -197.35956 Page 121 Number of obs = 303 Wald chi2(30) = 162.04 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Robust Std Err _t Coef incomeatfirstmarriage -.0397766 0195223 -2.04 0.042 -.0780397 -.0015135 educationallevel 1664512 -.6320567 2617653 3687573 0.64 -1.71 0.525 0.087 -.3465993 -1.354808 6795017 0906943 promotionatfirstmarriage jobmovementatfirstmarriage -.4832609 -.0976719 2191704 1587303 -2.20 -0.62 0.027 0.538 -.912827 -.4087777 -.0536948 2134338 jobatfirstmarriage 0013723 052483 2256758 3075545 0.01 0.17 0.995 0.865 -.4409442 -.5503128 4436887 6552787 workexperience residence 0189057 -.2215949 0151385 20764 1.25 -1.07 0.212 0.286 -.0107652 -.6285618 0485766 185372 cohort 1.876776 2.396812 2.399273 5852534 5821423 63658 3.21 4.12 3.77 0.001 0.000 0.000 7297004 1.255834 1.151599 3.023851 3.53779 3.646947 chiefincomeearneratfirstmarriage numberofsiblingsatfirstmarriage worshipatfirstmarriage -.6468485 0054987 -.1367062 1948553 0526456 1864512 -3.32 0.10 -0.73 0.001 0.917 0.463 -1.028758 -.0976848 -.5021438 -.2649391 1086821 2287314 religionatfirstmarriage 0153431 1338756 1739668 3604831 0.09 0.37 0.930 0.710 -.3256255 -.5726582 3563117 8404094 birthorder -.2759391 -.2927923 179232 2228265 -1.54 -1.31 0.124 0.189 -.6272274 -.7295243 0753491 1439397 livingarrangementatfirstmarriage 2070668 1732129 1.20 0.232 -.1324242 5465578 fatherseducation 2982792 0470517 1811589 2350742 3425917 2709617 1.27 0.14 0.67 0.204 0.891 0.504 -.1624578 -.6244156 -.3499164 7590162 718519 7122342 motherseducation -.1787442 -.30124 2339833 2354219 3509042 2657852 -0.76 -0.86 0.88 0.448 0.391 0.379 -.6401626 -.9889996 -.2869461 2826742 3865195 7549126 fathersjob 0646268 -.1792983 2585921 1811157 0.25 -0.99 0.803 0.322 -.4422044 -.5342786 5714581 1756819 mothersjob -.0641144 2663395 2400475 1619164 -0.27 1.64 0.789 0.100 -.5345988 -.0510108 40637 5836897 _cons -4.459699 7109024 -6.27 0.000 -5.853042 -3.066356 Page 122 z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] stcox incomeatfirstmarriage i.educationallevel promotionatfirstmarriage jobmovementatfirstmarriage i.jobatfirstmarri > age workexperience residence i.cohort chiefincomeearneratfirstmarriage numberofsiblingsatfirstmarriage worshipatfirs > tmarriage i.religionatfirstmarriage i.birthorder livingarrangementatfirstmarriage i.fatherseducation i.motherseduca > tion i.fathersjob i.mothersjob, nohr robust failure _d: marry analysis time _t: time Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -565.44926 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -537.37583 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -525.13185 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -524.43958 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -524.42376 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -524.42375 Refining estimates: Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -524.42375 Cox regression Breslow method for ties No of subjects = 303 No of failures = 115 Time at risk = 2302 Log pseudolikelihood = -524.42375 Page 123 Number of obs = 303 Wald chi2(30) = 98.43 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Robust Std Err _t Coef incomeatfirstmarriage -.0561165 0251597 -2.23 0.026 -.1054285 -.0068044 educationallevel -.0786766 -1.056385 331047 4606981 -0.24 -2.29 0.812 0.022 -.7275168 -1.959336 5701636 -.1534331 promotionatfirstmarriage jobmovementatfirstmarriage -.6654811 -.1820693 2595995 2259799 -2.56 -0.81 0.010 0.420 -1.174287 -.6249817 -.1566754 2608432 jobatfirstmarriage 2452392 420006 3182703 4181336 0.77 1.00 0.441 0.315 -.3785591 -.3995207 8690375 1.239533 workexperience residence 032612 -.2092862 0219347 2823572 1.49 -0.74 0.137 0.459 -.0103792 -.7626961 0756032 3441236 cohort 1.148259 1.300929 1.318422 6298786 6297378 7301061 1.82 2.07 1.81 0.068 0.039 0.071 -.0862801 0666661 -.1125594 2.382799 2.535193 2.749404 chiefincomeearneratfirstmarriage numberofsiblingsatfirstmarriage worshipatfirstmarriage -.717596 -.0018922 -.2428924 2419257 0722563 2439842 -2.97 -0.03 -1.00 0.003 0.979 0.319 -1.191762 -.1435121 -.7210927 -.2434304 1397276 2353078 religionatfirstmarriage -.0591458 3285455 2271149 5147936 -0.26 0.64 0.795 0.523 -.5042828 -.6804314 3859913 1.337522 birthorder -.224093 -.3756453 2426569 3155437 -0.92 -1.19 0.356 0.234 -.6996918 -.9940996 2515058 2428091 livingarrangementatfirstmarriage 2020572 2107115 0.96 0.338 -.2109297 6150441 fatherseducation 2518978 -.077423 1476705 3011847 463638 3612535 0.84 -0.17 0.41 0.403 0.867 0.683 -.3384134 -.9861368 -.5603733 842209 8312907 8557143 motherseducation -.0609673 -.2303794 3995948 2843966 437619 3511055 -0.21 -0.53 1.14 0.830 0.599 0.255 -.6183744 -1.088097 -.2885594 4964399 6273381 1.087749 fathersjob 1798202 -.2196199 3832033 2286623 0.47 -0.96 0.639 0.337 -.5712444 -.6677897 9308847 22855 mothersjob -.0964974 6442909 3100084 242677 -0.31 2.65 0.756 0.008 -.7041027 1686527 5111079 1.119929 Page 124 z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] streg incomeatfirstbirth i.educationallevelatfirstbirth0cth promotionatfirstbirth jobmovementatfirstbirth i.jobatfir > stbirth workexperience residence i.cohort contributionfb houseworkatfirstbirth i.religionatfirstmarriage i.birthorde > r livingarrangementatfirstbirth i.fatherseducation i.motherseducation i.fathersjob i.mothersjob abortion i.firstint > ercourse contraceptiveknowledge i.contraceptivetype, dist(exp) nohr robust failure _d: birth analysis time _t: child Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -195.81481 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -172.23842 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -137.69168 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -134.38042 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -134.25518 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -134.22701 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -134.22081 Iteration 8: log pseudolikelihood = -134.21927 Iteration 9: log pseudolikelihood = -134.21897 Iteration 10: log pseudolikelihood = Iteration 11: log pseudolikelihood = -134.21888 Iteration 12: log pseudolikelihood = -134.21888 -135.0102 -134.2189 Exponential regression log relative-hazard form No of subjects = 299 No of failures = 88 Time at risk = 2448 Log pseudolikelihood = -134.21888 Page 125 Number of obs = 299 Wald chi2(31) = Prob > chi2 = Robust Std Err _t Coef incomeatfirstbirth -.0517414 0262567 -1.97 0.049 -.1032036 -.0002793 educationallevelatfirstbirth0cth 1545025 063678 295513 3845542 0.52 0.17 0.601 0.868 -.4246924 -.6900343 7336974 8173903 promotionatfirstbirth jobmovementatfirstbirth -.6073462 -.3017104 2739437 1652159 -2.22 -1.83 0.027 0.068 -1.144266 -.6255276 -.0704264 0221069 jobatfirstbirth 0783943 3935817 2496777 2749374 0.31 1.43 0.754 0.152 -.410965 -.1452857 5677536 9324492 workexperience residence 0096207 1259047 012303 2459842 0.78 0.51 0.434 0.609 -.0144927 -.3562155 0337342 608025 cohort 8824385 1.136731 806049 7541639 7564202 7956555 1.17 1.50 1.01 0.242 0.133 0.311 -.5956956 -.3458255 -.753407 2.360573 2.619287 2.365505 contributionfb houseworkatfirstbirth 0053573 1597036 0030101 120514 1.78 1.33 0.075 0.185 -.0005423 -.0764995 011257 3959068 religionatfirstmarriage -.0032921 6425357 1936857 3604152 -0.02 1.78 0.986 0.075 -.382909 -.0638651 3763248 1.348936 birthorder -.1788699 2109686 1933041 2028135 -0.93 1.04 0.355 0.298 -.5577391 -.1865385 1999992 6084757 livingarrangementatfirstbirth 1770184 2057029 0.86 0.389 -.2261519 5801888 fatherseducation 1287298 -.1303353 2385215 2876029 3424443 3150577 0.45 -0.38 0.76 0.654 0.703 0.449 -.4349616 -.8015138 -.3789802 6924212 5408432 8560232 motherseducation 1197119 2814356 5273462 2765873 3555579 3252127 0.43 0.79 1.62 0.665 0.429 0.105 -.4223893 -.415445 -.1100589 6618132 9783162 1.164751 fathersjob -.1305494 -.1857283 268844 188376 -0.49 -0.99 0.627 0.324 -.657474 -.5549385 3963752 1834818 mothersjob -.1249459 1462436 2351779 1718095 -0.53 0.85 0.595 0.395 -.5858861 -.1904967 3359942 482984 abortion 103881 2150238 0.48 0.629 -.3175578 5253199 firstintercourse 16.89895 17.26275 4111327 3845365 41.10 44.89 0.000 0.000 16.09315 16.50907 17.70476 18.01643 contraceptiveknowledge -.5959442 3865488 -1.54 0.123 -1.353566 1616776 contraceptivetype 5315306 5317697 7458003 3873418 4479901 4357181 1.37 1.19 1.71 0.170 0.235 0.087 -.2276453 -.3462748 -.1081914 1.290707 1.409814 1.599792 _cons -21.4153 8593809 -24.92 0.000 -23.09966 -19.73095 Page 126 z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] stcox incomeatfirstbirth i.educationallevelatfirstbirth0cth promotionatfirstbirth jobmovementatfirstbirth i.jobatfir > stbirth workexperience residence i.cohort contributionfb houseworkatfirstbirth i.religionatfirstmarriage i.birthorde > r livingarrangementatfirstbirth i.fatherseducation i.motherseducation i.fathersjob i.mothersjob abortion i.firstint > ercourse contraceptiveknowledge i.contraceptivetype, nohr robust failure _d: birth analysis time _t: child Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -421.03396 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -361.82244 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -359.66173 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -359.18974 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -359.02033 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -358.93537 Iteration 8: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92697 Iteration 9: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92389 Iteration 10: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92275 Iteration 11: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92233 Iteration 12: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92218 Iteration 13: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92212 Iteration 14: log pseudolikelihood = Iteration 15: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92209 Iteration 16: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92209 Iteration 17: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92209 Iteration 18: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92209 Iteration 19: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92209 Iteration 20: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92209 Iteration 21: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92209 -382.225 -358.9582 -358.9221 Refining estimates: Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -358.92209 Cox regression Breslow method for ties No of subjects = 299 No of failures = 88 Time at risk = 2448 Wald chi2(35) = Number of obs = 299 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 9823.96 Log pseudolikelihood = -358.92209 Page 127 Robust Std Err _t Coef incomeatfirstbirth -.0640734 0334611 educationallevelatfirstbirth0cth -.2764001 -.4161962 promotionatfirstbirth jobmovementatfirstbirth P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] -1.91 0.056 -.129656 0015091 4211136 5210952 -0.66 -0.80 0.512 0.424 -1.101768 -1.437524 5489674 6051317 -.773318 -.5626636 359712 2399491 -2.15 -2.34 0.032 0.019 -1.478341 -1.032955 -.0682955 -.0923719 jobatfirstbirth 2337848 9447779 3588851 4358194 0.65 2.17 0.515 0.030 -.469617 0905876 9371866 1.798968 workexperience residence 0150651 2780074 0192497 3396133 0.78 0.82 0.434 0.413 -.0226635 -.3876224 0527937 9436373 cohort -.2562291 -.7054674 -1.19162 8640383 8962388 9509863 -0.30 -0.79 -1.25 0.767 0.431 0.210 -1.949713 -2.462063 -3.055519 1.437255 1.051128 6722792 contributionfb houseworkatfirstbirth 005114 1734411 0045592 1829983 1.12 0.95 0.262 0.343 -.0038218 -.185229 0140499 5321112 religionatfirstmarriage -.0066754 1.049916 2795471 5532086 -0.02 1.90 0.981 0.058 -.5545777 -.0343529 5412269 2.134185 birthorder -.1621463 1465358 2891808 4069112 -0.56 0.36 0.575 0.719 -.7289303 -.6509956 4046378 9440671 livingarrangementatfirstbirth 2194699 2605239 0.84 0.400 -.2911476 7300874 fatherseducation 5269736 3203767 7580602 5002149 5391057 513086 1.05 0.59 1.48 0.292 0.552 0.140 -.4534296 -.7362511 -.2475699 1.507377 1.377004 1.76369 motherseducation -.0134091 3728245 6369672 3965929 4895547 4381993 -0.03 0.76 1.45 0.973 0.446 0.146 -.7907168 -.586685 -.2218876 7638987 1.332334 1.495822 fathersjob -.0528633 -.3146915 4197554 2449728 -0.13 -1.28 0.900 0.199 -.8755688 -.7948294 7698421 1654464 mothersjob -.166083 5230384 3658309 2963759 -0.45 1.76 0.650 0.078 -.8830985 -.0578477 5509324 1.103924 abortion 4797511 4141957 1.16 0.247 -.3320576 1.29156 firstintercourse 20.70039 21.28974 350663 60.71 0.000 20.60246 21.97703 contraceptiveknowledge -1.070965 6742024 -1.59 0.112 -2.392377 2504475 contraceptivetype 9979681 1.158837 1.760057 7053111 7785679 8027055 1.41 1.49 2.19 0.157 0.137 0.028 -.3844164 -.3671279 1867834 2.380353 2.684802 3.333331 Page 128 z ... and marriage To analyze the impacts of education and career on the entry into first marriage and childbirth, we model the hazard function ℎ(