First Vintage Books Edition, January 1989 Copyright © 1987 by Paul Kennedy All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions Published in the United States by Random House, Inc., New York Originally published, in hardcover, by Random House, Inc., in 1987 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kennedy, Paul M., 1945The rise and fall of the great powers History, Modern Economic history Military history, Modern Armaments—Economic aspects Balance of power I Title D210.K46 1989 909.82 88-40123 eISBN: 978-0-307-77356-2 Grateful acknowledgment is made to the following for permission to reprint previously published material: Lexington Books, D C Heath and Company: An illustration from American Defense Annual 1987–1988, edited by Joseph Kruzel, Copyright © 1987, D C Heath and Company (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, D C Heath and Company) Reprinted by permission of the publisher Maps by John Paul Tremblay v3.1 To Cath Acknowledgments Whatever the weaknesses of this book, they would have been far greater without the kind help of friends J R Jones and Gordon Lee went through the entire manuscript, asking questions all the way My colleague Jonathan Spence endeavored (I fear with only partial success) to curb the cultural assumptions which emerged in the first two chapters John Elliott was encouraging about Chapter 2, despite its being very evidently “not my period.” Paddy O’Brien and John Bosher sought to make my comments on eighteenth-century British and French finance a little less crude Nick Rizopoulos and Michael Mandelbaum not only scrutinized the later chapters, but also invited me to present my ideas at a series of meetings at the Lehrman Institute in New York Many, many scholars have heard me give papers on subthemes in this book, and have provided references, much-needed criticism, and encouragement The libraries and staffs at the universities of East Anglia and Yale were of great assistance My graduate student Kevin Smith helped me in the search for historical statistics My son Jim Kennedy prepared the maps Sheila Klein and Sue McClain came to the rescue with typing and word processing, as did Maarten Pereboom with the bibliography I am extremely grateful for the sustained support and encouragement which my literary agent, Bruce Hunter, has provided over the years Jason Epstein has been a firm and patient editor, repeatedly getting me to think of the general reader—and also recognizing earlier than the author did how demanding it would be to deal with themes of this magnitude My family has provided support and, more important still, light relief The book is dedicated to my wife, to whom I owe so much Paul Kennedy Hamden, Connecticut, 1986 Contents Cover Title Page Copyright Dedication Acknowledgments Maps Tables and Charts Introduction STRATEGY AND ECONOMICS IN THE PREINDUSTRIAL WORLD Chapter The Rise of the Western World Ming China The Muslim World Two Outsiders—Japan and Russia The “European Miracle” Chapter The Habsburg Bid for Mastery, 1519–1659 The Meaning and Chronology of the Struggle Strengths and Weaknesses of the Habsburg Bloc International Comparisons War, Money, and the Nation-State Chapter Finance, Geography, and the Winning of Wars, 1660–1815 The “Financial Revolution” Geopolitics The Winning of Wars, 1660–1763 The Winning of Wars, 1763–1815 STRATEGY AND ECONOMICS IN THE INDUSTRIAL ERA Chapter Industrialization and the Shifting Global Balances, 1815–1885 The Eclipse of the Non-European World Britain as Hegemon? The “Middle Powers” The Crimean War and the Erosion of Russian Power The United States and the Civil War The Wars of German Unification Conclusions Chapter The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the “Middle Powers”: Part One, 1885–1918 The Shifting Balance of World Forces The Position of the Powers, 1885–1914 Alliances and the Drift to War, 1890–1914 Total War and the Power Balances, 1914–1918 Chapter The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the “Middle Powers”: Part Two, 1919–1942 The Postwar International Order The Challengers The Offstage Superpowers The Unfolding Crisis, 1931–1942 STRATEGY AND ECONOMICS TODAY AND TOMORROW Chapter Stability and Change in a Bipolar World, 1943– 1980 “The Proper Application of Overwhelming Force” The New Strategic Landscape The Cold War and the Third World The Fissuring of the Bipolar World The Changing Economic Balances, 1950 to 1980 Chapter To the Twenty-first Century History and Speculation China’s Balancing Act The Japanese Dilemma The EEC—Potential and Problems The Soviet Union and Its “Contradictions” The United States: The Problem of Number One in Relative Decline Epilogue Notes Bibliography About the Author Other Books by This Author Also by Paul Kennedy Maps World Power Centers in the Sixteenth Century The Political Divisions of Europe in the Sixteenth Century Charles V’s Inheritance, 15194 The Collapse of Spanish Power in Europe Europe in 1721 European Colonial Empires, c 1750 Europe at the Height of Napoleon’s Power, 1810 The Chief Possessions, Naval Bases, and Submarine Cables of the British Empire, c 1900 The European Powers and Their War Plans in 1914 10 Europe After the First World War 11 Europe at the Height of Hitler’s Power, 1942 12 Worldwide U.S Force Deployments, 1987 Tables & Charts TABLES Increase in Military Manpower, 1470–1660 British Wartime Expenditure and Revenue, 1688–1815 Populations of the Powers, 1700–1800 Size of Armies, 1690–1814 Size of Navies, 1689–1815 Relative Shares of World Manufacturing Output, 1750–1900 Per Capita Levels of Industrialization, 1750–1900 Military Personnel of the Powers, 1816–1880 GNP of the European Great Powers, 1830–1890 10 Per Capita GNP of the European Great Powers, 1830–1890 11 Military Expenditures of the Powers in the Crimean War 12 Total Population of the Powers, 1890–1938 13 Urban Population of the Powers and as Percentage of the Total Population, 1890–1938 14 Per Capita Levels of Industrialization, 1880–1938 15 Iron/Steel Production of the Powers, 1890–1938 and the Global Scene Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1981 Sombart, W Krieg und Kapitalismus Munich, 1913 Sontag, R.J A Broken World, 1919-1939 New York, 1971 Spanier, J.W American Foreign Policy Since World War II London, 1972 edn Spector, R.H Eagle Against the Sun: The American War with Japan New York, 1985 Speer, A Inside the Third Reich New York, 1982 edn Spiers, E.M The Army and Society 1815-1914 London, 1980 Sprout, H., and M Sprout The Rise of American Naval Power, 1776-1918 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War, 1939-1945 New York, 1968 Wright, Q A Study of War Chicago, 1942 Yahuda, M.B China’s Role in World Affairs New York, 1978 Yang, L.-S Money and Credit in China Cambridge, Mass., 1952 Yardley, H The American Black Chamber New York, 1931 Yonosuke, N., and A Iriye, eds The Origins of the Cold War in Asia New York, 1977 Yost, D.S France and Conventional Defense in Central Europe Boulder, Col., 1985 , “France’s Deterrent Posture,” Adelphi Papers 194 and 195 (1985) Young, J.W Britain, France and the Unity of Europe 1945-51 Leicester, 1984 Young, L.K British Policy in China 1895-1902 Oxford, 1970 Young, R.J In Command of France: French Foreign Policy and Military Planning 1933-1940 Cambridge, Mass., 1978 Ziemke, E.F Stalingrad to Berlin: The German Defeat in the East 1942-1945 Washington, D.C., 1968 Zuckerman, S Nuclear Illusion and Reality London, 1982 PAUL KENNEDY Paul Kennedy is the author or editor of thirteen books, including Preparing for the Twenty-first Century and The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, which has been translated into more than twenty languages He serves on the editorial board of numerous scholarly journals and has written for The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, The Atlantic Monthly , and several other publications Educated at Newcastle University and Oxford University, he is a former fellow of the Institute for Advanced Studies at Princeton University and of the Alexander von HumboldtStiftung in Bonn Books by Paul Kennedy The Parliament of Man The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers Preparing for the Twenty-first Century ALSO BY PAUL KENNEDY THE PARLIAMENT OF MAN The Parliament of Man is the first definitive history of the United Nations, from one of America’s greatest living historians Distinguished scholar Paul Kennedy gives us a thorough and timely account that explains the UN’s roots and functions, while also casting an objective eye on its effectiveness and its prospects for success in meeting the challenges that lie ahead Kennedy shows the UN for what it is: fallible, human-based, often dependent on the whims of powerful national governments or the foibles of individual admnistrators—yet also utterly indispensable With his insightful grasp of six decades of global history, Kennedy convincingly argues that “it is difficult to imagine how much more riven and ruinous our world of six billion people would be if there had been no UN.” Political Science/978-0-378-70341-6 PREPARING FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY In Preparing for the Twenty-first Century , Paul Kennedy synthesizes extensive research in fields ranging from demography to robotics in order to draw a detailed, persuasive, and often shocking map of the very near future How will the earth’s resources support a population that may reach 8.5 billion by 2025? What will happen to individual states as jobs and money cross borders in the wink of an eye? What new conflicts will arise from the growing disparity between the have and have-not nations? Region by region, and encompassing such trends as increased immigration, the collapse of old industries, and global warming, Preparing for the Twenty-first Century answers these questions The result is a bold work that bridges the gap between history, prophecy, and policy Current Affairs/978-0-679-74705-5 VINTAGE BOOKS Available at your local bookstore, or visit www.randomhouse.com ... one hand and military strength on the other The story of the rise and fall of the Great Powers” which is presented in these chapters may be briefly summarized here The first chapter sets the. .. examining the world around 1500 and by analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of each of the “power centers” of that time—Ming China; the Ottoman Empire and its Muslim offshoot in India, the Mogul... the history of the rise and fall of the Great Powers STRATEGY & ECONOMICS IN THE PREINDUSTRIAL WORLD The Rise of the Western World In the year 1500, the date chosen by numerous scholars to mark