East asia recovery and beyond (vietnamese)

Public Disclosure Authorized UDONG Aj Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 7- A- -' I - ! Phuc h - I b~ P- r, DONG A: Phuc hbi "a Phit triin ( Sach tham kh20 ) Nglrbi d/ch : VU CUONG HOANG THANH DUONG Nglrbi hi& dinh : DlNH ANH PHUONG BAn quy&nO 2000 NgAn hBng Thi thi&tvB Phht tri&nqu6c t&/NGhTH b J G THE GI& 1818 H Street, N W Washington, D.C 20433, USA Gi3 toan bg b i n quy&n X u i t bAn tai Hoa Kjr in i n hBnh d i u tien vBo thhng N5im 2000 Moi nhan djnh, 1y giAi vB k i t luan i n ph6m nBy d&u hoan toan 'IB clia chc thc gii Chung kh6ng dai dien cho NgAn hBng Th&gitri, chc t6 chirc vien clia ngAn hang, chc thBnh vien clia Ban Gihm d6c di&uhBnh hay clia chc nutrc mB chc thc giA d&cap din NgAn hang Th&gitri kh6ng dAm b i o dg chinh xhc clia chc s6 lieu i n ph6m nay, ciing kh6ng chiu trhch nhiem v&b i t cir hau quA nao viec sir dung chc s6 lieu 66 gAy Moi ranh giiri, mBu sic, ten goi vB chc th6ng tin khhc th6 hien b i t cir b i n d6 nBo i n ph6m nBy d&ukh6ng phAn hnh b i t cir dhnh gih n8o clia Nh6m NgAn hBng v&tinh trang phhp ly clia b i t cir viing l5nh th6 nBo ciing nhu s q chip nhan chc ranh gitri 66 Chc t u lieu i n p h i m nBy d&uduac c6ng nhan bAn quy&n.NgAn hBng Th&gitri khuy&nkhich viec bi&nrgng r5i c6ng trinh nBy vB thubng sE dAm bio cho Phitp kip thtri & cho phitp chitp tirng p h i n d&sir dung ngi bg hoac ch nhAn, d&sir dung ngi NgAn hBng ~ h giiri be hogc ch nhAn clia timg khhch hBng cu th&vB d&dung p i n g day, vtri di&ukien c6 trA mgt mirc phi thba dhng trqc tikp cho Copyright Clearance Center, Inc 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, dien thoai 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470 Xin lien he vtri Copyright Clearance Center trutrc chitp D&duac phitp in lai nh3ng bai vi&thogc chucmg nguyen ven, xin fax yeu c i u clia ban ciing vtri d i y dli th6ng tin cho Republication Department, Copyright Clearance Center, fax 978-750-4470 Moi yeu c i u khhc v&quy&nvB giiy phitp, xin lien he viri NgAn hBng Th&gi&ithe0 dja chi tren hogc the0 s6 fax 202-522-2422 Trang bia: Mgt thiau nien duac hutrng lqi ich tir mgt chucmg trinh NgAn hBng Th&gitri h6 tra tai Jakarta vBo d i u nh3ng n5im 1990 (Curt Carnemark) ISBN 0-8213-4565-6 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-PublicationData D6ng A: Phuc h6i vB phht tri&n Ghm cA t h u muc tBi lieu tham khio ISBN 0-8213-4565-6 D6ng A: Hgi nhap kinh ta D6ng A - Chinh shch kinh t&.3 Tai chinh - D6ng A D6ng A ~ &chinh n tfi vB chinh phli I NgAn hBng Th&gitri T heo danh gia clia cac chuyen gia kinh t&, v8n cbn khbng it kh6 kh5n, nhung n5m 1999 danh d i u sq phuc hhi kinh t&cCla p h i n 16n cac nu6c Dbng A sau cuec khling hoAng thi chinh - ti&nte Khbng k6 Nhet BAn, thc tang trubng kinh t&clia ch2u A dat 5,7%, cao han l i n so v6i mirc t5ng 1,9% cba n5m 1998 Sq phuc hhi manh mE n h i t di8n Malaisia, Singapo, Han Quhc, Thai Lan Rieng Inifbnesia, qu6c gia chju heu quA ngng n&n h i t clia khling hoAng, qua trinh phuc hhi c6 p h i n chem han Phep mau nhiem nao khi&ncho qua trinh phuc hhi kinh t& c a c n~r6cDbng A d i h v6i t6c nhanh nhu vey? Cac nu8c khu VLTC c i n phAi vuqt qua nh3ng kh6 kh5n, thach thirc ilao d6 tri sq phuc hhi va t3ng b u ~phat tri6n? D2y la nh3ng v i n d&d5 va dang thu hut sq quan t2m clia cac hoc gih, cac nha nghien ciru, cac nha kinh t&trong va ngoai khu vqc D6 g6p p h i n lam sang tb met s6 v i n d&tren, dhng thbi cung tip them cho ban doc nhCrng thbng tin va sh lieu m6i nhht v& qua trinh khfic phuc heu qu6 vh phuc hhi cac n&nkinh t&Dbng A sau can b5o khling hoAng thi chinh - ti&n te, NhA xuht bAn Chinh tri q~16cgia x u i t bAn cu6n sach D8ng A: Phyc h2i vh phcit trign met tep th6 cac tac giA thuec Ng2n hang Th&gi6i bien soan vA i n hanh thang 'N5m 2000 ~ u sach n dbi tikp sau cu6n D6ng A: Con duhng d & n d i n plzuc hai cdng NhA xuht bAn Chinh tri qu6c gia x u i t bAn n5m 1999, nei dung tep trung ph2n tich s2u han cuhn trubc qua trinh ph~!c hhi tren c a c m$t: qu6n 19 tai chinh, tri tinh &nh tranh thuang mai vh d i u tu, c6i t8 cac ng2n hang va cac cbng ty, nh3ng vhn d&d$t cbng tac l5nh dao, di&u chinh chinh sach x5 hei vh b6o ve ngubi nghho, v.v Cac tac gi6 cuhn sach cbn vach chi&n luqc phat tri&n m6i cho c a c n&n kinh t & khu vqc hubng t6i th&k$ XXI Nhu cu6n sach tru6c chung tbi dB neu, mgc dh c6 met sh danh gia va s6 lieu clia cac tac giA khac v6i danh gia va s6 lieu clia chdng ta, nhung chung tbi hy vong cu6n sach s6 la tai lieu tham kh6o b8 ich d6i v6i ban doc Xin gi6i thieu cuhn sach chng ban doc Thang n2i;n 2000 NHA XUAT BAN CHINH TRI QUOC GIA T6m tit niji dung xi Sq phuc hbi dang lay lai dong ning Dong thai cfia su phyc hbi Di s i n cfia khirng hoing v i n h h g diem d8 bi t i n t h m g mdi 12 Tir phyc hbi c6 tar mot nguygn t3ng t ~ h cao g hay khbng? 16 Chb thich 19 Tai lieu tham kh6o 19 QuBn Ig hQinhap tai chinh 21 Giai dogn thir nhit: cic di6m d8 bj t i n t h m g xu6t hien 22 Giai doan thir hai: d6i ph6 vdi c u b khirng hosng 29 ~ i adoan i thir ba: dlrang din t81phyc hbi 41 Tinh thd cfia Trung QU& 42 Cac thach thirc tlrdng lai cfia qua trirltl hoi nh$p t i i chinh 44 ChO thich 47 Thi lieu tham kh60 49 Duy til tinh canh tranh thlrdng mai va dhu tlr 53 ~ h O thay n ~ ddi mang tinh chu kjr thudng mai 55 Cac ydu t6 cd d u va chinh sach tac dong ddn kdt qu8 hogt dong t h m g mqi 59 XU h u h g va cic van dh vk ddu t~ twc tidp nu& ngoai 66 Tranh thfi t6i da nhn kinh t i tri thirc 73 it luan .77 Chfi thich 78 Thi lieu tham kh60 78 CBi t6 cic ngen hang v i cAc c6ng ty 81 N h h g cAi gi d5 hqp thdnh cu@ khirng hosng? 82 C% td ca d u tai chinh kef tir sau cu@ khfing h o h g 85 Cac &ng ty d5 lam 5n sao? ~ a vhn c dh va cic lua c h ~ nchinh sach 94 L5nh dao va sb hi31 doanh nghiep 100 Cu@ khdng hosng v i Trung QU& 108 Chlithich 114 T i i lieu tharn khso 115 Dap k g cac thach t h k c6ng t i c I3nh dao 117 Cac sdc ep cu@ khdng hosng tgo len thi chinh wng 118 Cac ap luc nu& va toin $u dbi h6i thay d6i chinh phd 121 C6 th6 lam gi d6 c i i tiin &c th6 ch6 wng Nng? 127 Cac xu hudng t m g lai cia cbng tac I3nh dao 135 Chlithich 136 Chc thich b6ng 137 TBi lieu tham khso 137 Diku chinh chhh sach xZi h6i va bAo ve ngutri n g h h 139 Tac dong c i a kh6ng hohng l6n 661 ngha bat binh d h g v i hb gia dnh 140 Phsn lihg c i a hi) gia dinh t& khing hosng 148 Phsn h g cfia chinh phfi d6i vdi khfing hosng 151 Nhijhg b i i h ~ cho c chinh sach x5 hiji 159 Cac chinh sach x3 hQin h h b b ve nhikg ngua d6 b! t6n thudng 161 Chlithich 170 Thi lieu tharn khso 171 X2y d m g chien IUdc cho sy dieu m a 173 Mot k$ nguysn rnd t5ng tnfhg cao ? 175 ~ h i nl l r ~ ccho the ch6 va t5ng tnfhg 180 N h h g sang ki6n da p h m g khu v@ vb mot nguysn t5ng tnfhg rnd 188 ~ l r tnd ~mijt chikn luge phat tridn rnd 191 Chli thich 192 Chli thich bsng 193 TBi lieu tham kh6o 194 KJ hi c6ng trinh nghiGn ciru v&khu vqc g i n d9y n h i t clia chdng t6i - cu6n D G ~ ~ Con A : d u h g d n d i n phuc lz6i - duac i n hhnh v8o th6ng Chin 998 thi 336ngA van dang phii chiu dqng Cugc suy thoai vha m6i IGn d&n dinh digm, t h i t nghiep b mirc cao n h i t 25 n5m qua va hang trieu ngubi bi ddy vho cHnh kh6n c h g Ch6ng t6i cbng b6 t8i lieu tinh hinh dB sang s6a han nhiku: CGng cuac phuc hhi clia D6ng A d5 x u i t hien, v3ng chdc va ngubi diln khu vqc dB khfi han Tuy th&,phuc hhi vsn disn kh6ng d&u- vtri IndGnGsia cbn tri tre va HBn Qu6c lai n6i trgi - va thu nhap clia ngubi nghko v i n chua hoan toan duac phuc hhi Nhung gib dAy, cac nuac d5 chuy6n t h viec quHn 19 cuac kh6ng hoing sang cfic v i n d&d8i han v&phat tri6n va giim d6i nghko Bao cao xem xkt qua trinh phuc hbi c6a khu vqc, danh g i g tinh b&n v3ng c6a n6, va tim nh3ng thach thirc c i n phii vuat qua b& qua trinh phuc hbi 66 duac lilu dai va lan rang Vey k&tluen 18 gi? Nhjp va thbi gian phuc hbi sE phu thuac vao viec lieu c6c qu6c gia cb thi&t lap nhang thd ch&mbi d& d6i ph6 vtri ba thach thirc sau hay khbng: Quhn 19 quci trinh tohn cdu h6a Cac nubc vira phii quHn 19 nhfing l u h g v6n c6 nhi&ukhH n i n g bi&n dang manh, vira p h i i canh tranh mat n&nkinh t&toan chu, dqa tr6n tri thirc Hhi sinlz cdc doanlz nghiep S q sup d8 he th6ng dB lam t6n hai nghi6m d&nngiln hang vh cac c6ng ty b IndGnGsia, Han Q U ~ C Malaisia, , Philippin va Thai Lan - cbn Trung Qu6c va Viet Nam, cac doanh nghiep nh8 nu6c cfing cang phHi dBi mat v6i canh tranh qu6c t& H ~ h tg& mot khk u8c x hbi mbi uh di&u chinh uai trb c6a chinh ph6 Ng clia chinh phli cang t i n g va dbi h6i c6a cdng chdng v& tinh t h i n trAch nhiem c6a gibi chinh trl mat ltrn dB dua v i n d&q u i n 19 nha nuirc dimg trobc mat nai dung ph6t tridn mtri Han n3a, cuac kh6ng hoing dB tao nhi&u 6p Iqc d6i vtri chinh ph6 viec dHm bHo an sinh x2 hai vB dua ngubi ngheo tham gia vao qufi trinh t i n g t r u h g Cii ti&nth&chk la diku tam d6 bikn tikm n i n g c6a DGng A hien thqc S q cdng dbi hbi phHi tri duac dang lqc c6a c i i cach ma cugc kh6ng hoing d5 gay Chinh phli va nhiln dAn cfic nutrc khu vqc c?in luu t9m d&nt6c phuc hbi Trong nhi?ng trubng hgp kh6 khgn n h i t , hg dB d&ra nhi&uchinh sach mtri nhkm nhen nh6m lai s q t i n g trubng Ng9n hang ~ h gi6i & - v6i s u hap t8c c6a cfic qu6c gia, Quy ti&nte qu6c t k , Ng9n hhng Phat tri6n ch9u A va cfic nha thi tra song phucmg khac - r i t t q hao dB tra cho nhffng n5 lqc cfia cac nuac DBng A Trong hai n i m sau kh6ng hoHng, Ng9n hBng dB t i n g gip d6i cam k&t clia minh vai khu vqc, l6n d&ntr6n tjr USD met nam S ~dIq an clia Ng2n hang d6i, cbn viec cho vay vi muc ti6u xB hei va m6i truang d5 ciing tang gip tang gip ba, vh Ng2n hhng ciing d5 cung tip r i t nhiku h8 tra ky thuet ciing n h u cb v i n chinh sach Mac dG mirc cho vay dot bikn n h u thai kjr khling hoing sG nhanh chbng a h r n d i n , nhung Ng2n hang v i n tikp tuc cam k&thap tac 12u dai vai khu vqc Met 19 la c6ng viec clia chung ta chua hoan t i t Khoing 278 trieu nguai d2n D8ng A v i n cbn phhi sang vai duai USD met ngay, va 892 trieu nguai sbng duai USD met Theo nhiku cach, p h i n c6ng viec khb khan - x2y dqng th6 chk mai d6 n2ng cao mirc sang cho thk he sau - mai chi b i t d i u Jemal-un-din Kassum Ph6 Gicim d6c Khu u g c D B ~ - ~Thai A Binh Duong Ng6n hhng ~ h gi6i b I TOM TAT N ~DUNG I Gt lhn n3a, Ddng A lai 18 khu vyc tang trubng nhanh n h i t th&gi6i Di&unay phAn anh cac chinh sach kinh t&vi m6 ph6i hap, tibp the0 met qua trinh di&uchinh khhc nghiet n h m g nhanh ch6ng va thyc hien kien quy&tcac chinh sach ca cku nhhm ki&mch&s y suy sup c6 he thang ciia khu vyc t8i chinh vB cdng ty, l i y lai ni&mtin c6a cdng chung va s y chuy&n minh t h u m g mai khu vyc, d6 phhn nBo c6 s y d6ng g6p c6a n&n kinh t&qu8c t&dang khbi shc h m D&n d2y, m8i quan tam lai chuy&nsang nh3ng vkn d&trung han Lieu s q phuc hhi c6 duqc x2y dyng tren mGt n&nt i n g v3ng chhc hay khdng? Hay n6 sE bj nghi&nnht du6i sirc nang ciia sy phi hi& quA dai ding, nq chinh phii chbng c h i t , s y canh tranh m6i tren t h u m g trubng qu6c t&,vB nh3ng cam k&tkhdng duqc thyc hien v&viec ca chu lai ng2n hang vB doanh nghiep? Lieu s y phuc hbi c6 bikn t h i n h mat k? nguyen m6i tang trubng cao hay khdng? CuGc kh6ng hoing c6 lam thay d8i ca b i n chiin luqc phat tri&nciia Ddng A, quan he c6a n6 v6i n&nkinh t&tohn chu, m6i quan he ben ciia cac ng2n hBng va doanh nghiep, va cach thirc 1x8 cdng chting lien he v6i chinh ph6 c6a hq hay khdng? Hay s y phuc hhi chi khdi phuc duqc cac doanh nghiep nhu binh thubng mB thdi? Nh3ng c2u hbi d6 18 nGi dung c6a bao cao V6i nhfing nu6c bi khiing hoing n$ng n& nhht - Inddnesia, HBn Q U ~ C , ~ h i l ; ~ ~ iMalaisia n, vB Thai Lan - tri&nvong tang trubng dang bi de doa bbi nh3ng khoin nq treo c6a cac cdng ty, nq chinh phfi nghy chng fang, vB s y b i t an m6i dhi v6i cac hG gia dinh Tuy nhien, tir cu6i nam 1998, sirc chu m6i d2 c i i thien lubng chu chuy&nti&nm$t c6a cac doanh nghiep, giAm b6t cac khoAn nq khdng sinh lbi cho ng2n hang ,vB cho phep mGt s6 ng2n hang c6 th&tai tip v8n Phuc hbi kinh t&cfing d2 giii t6a b6t ap 1yc d6i v6i t8i chinh nh8 nu& Trai lai, tri&nvong c6a Trung Qu6c vB Viet Nam lai phu thuoc vao nh3ng s y khdng chic c h i n c6a cuGc cAi cach chua c6 ti&n1+ tir tru6c Tang trubng nhanh lien tuc s"e19m d8 dang han qua trinh chuy&nd6i cam go tir k&hoach sang thi trubng ma khdng g2y mGt s y m i t gia dbng ti&nhay nh3ng r6i loan x5 hoi Thi dy, nhi&ucdng nh2n cac doanh nghiep nh8 nu6c mht viec c6 th&tim duqc viec lam n&nkinh t&t u nh2n dang tang tnrbng nhanh Trong t i t c i cac nu&, phyc hhi kinh t&sle tao them vice lam m6i vB cho phep tikp tuc cdng cuoc giAm d6i nghko Tuy nhien, di sAn ciia cuGc kh6ng hoAng nhht la khoAn nq nang n&vB s y bht an l6n h m d6i v6i ngubi lao dong - dang khikn qua trinh phuc hbi d8 bi i n h hubng bbi nh3ng thay d8i b i t ngb t2m 19 ciia cac nh8 dhu t u ho$c s y suy thoai kinh t&th&gi6i Duy tri nhip phuc hbi, mb rGng them pham vi Anh hubng c6a n6, vB kQo M vh 6ng dung cdng ngh$ mbi Vai tro nang nk c6a nhh nubc giao dgc va tinh trang dec quy&n c6a nha nubc cac nganh thdng tin dubng nhu nghy cang lac long vB khb c6 th6 sAn sinh duac nhting 1ai ich ma tinh linh hoat tao Th~rcmg mai cung c6 the di&u chinh bkng nh3ng hanh dong tap th&.Dgc biet quan la viec giHm bbt hang rao thu&quan khu vvc the0 Hiep dlnh khu vqc meu djch t q ciia Hiep hiji c6c qu8c gia Ddng Nam A (AF'TA) ThBnh l@p n3m 1992, AF'TA hy vong tao l$p n&nth~rangrnai t q vao n3m 2008 cho hhu h6t cac sHn phsm va h i u h&tc8c nubc N3m 1994, hiep hgi dB nhht tri r6t n g i n ljch trinh xu8ng vao n5m 2003 N&Uti&n hanh tich cqc, 98% mirc thu6 quan ST, cbn 0-5% n5n1 2003 (2006 d6i vbi Viet Nam va 2008 dbi v6i Lao vB Mianma) ~ h u quan & d6i vbi ndng sHn sE duac thhp cham han met chirt Cac viitn ASEAN dfi hkt sdc quy&t tiim gia nhap AFTA 54.367 s6 55.525 dong thuk sE bi c i t bb D6 c6 hieu lqc, cac hi$p djnh khu vqc phai d i m bHo d ~ r a cr i n g xu h~rbnghinh th~rangrnai m6i s b m a n h han xu hubng da dang h6a thucmg rnai b i n g each p h i n d i u giam bao he thuang rnai nbi chung v8n ham chira qua trinh t q h6a dua trGn chc hi$p djnh t6i hue qu8c Tuang tu, cac cam k&tth~rangrnai dlrac dua ti5 chirc Disn dan Hap tac &nh t&chiiu A Thai Binh D~rang(APEC) ciing sE duac chip nhan nhanh chbng! n o n g kjr hop nsm 1994, nh6m dB d& muc tiGu x2y dqng met khu vuc thuang mai va d i u ttr t q do, cbi mb b chiiu A va Thai Binh Doang d&n n3m 2010 dhi vbi cat nu6c cdng nghiep va d6n n3m 2020 d8i vbi cac nobc dang phat trisn Khac vbi AFTA, t q h6a t h ~ r a n g rnai APEC la t q nguyen, dan p h u m g va khdng phiin biet dbi x6 Tuy r i n g t i i n tri&nthe0 ho6ng t q h6a b6n ngoai nh3ng gi dB cam k&t WTO cbn rht dang t h i t vong, nhung APEC dfi b8 sung cho k&t quh ciia WTO cac linh vqc khac n h o Hiep djnh Cdng nghe Th6ng tin APEC doa trubc duac WTO c h i p nh$n Cac be truirng thuang rnai APEC mbi diiy dii d8ng y h ? ~tra v$n dong cho mot vbng dam phan thuang rnai mbi c6a WTO Cac be trubng ciing dZi khuy&nkhich ddy nhanh qua trinh dam phAn gia nh$p d8i vbi cac thhnh vi6n APEC ma chua thu(ic WTO, va c h i p nhen rkng nhang nubc phHi duac tham dq vbng dam phan WTO s i p tbi APEC cGng dbng jr dua nganh cdng nghi$p ch&tao vao chuang trinh dam phan WTO S q heu thuhn c6a APEC dbi vbi viec b5i bb tra tip xuht kh6u ndng sHn s5 la mot thdng di$p ngng k$ d8i vbi Li6n minh ch2u Au Cijng dhng qubc t i dB c6 h6 tra trqc tikp cho qua trinh phyc hbi cfia Ddng A Tuy gig ca th6 gibi c6 giAm dot nggt nhtrng c6c nubc Tgy AU vB My vhn mb c6a thi tr~rbng.Han nBa, c8c nu6c OECD n6i chung cbn a p dung cac chinh shch th6c ddy mot n i n kinh t& toan c i u 8n dlnh va rgng mb Trong tuang lai trung han, di&u c6 hn ttrang n h i t chuang trinh nghi s q v& thuang rnai clia Ddng A 18 viec Trung Qu6c dang chu6n bi gia nhap WTO Khi Trung Qu8c la thhnh vien cha WTO, mb rijng t h u m g rnai s"e lam tiing thu nhap th&gi6i th6m tit 60 d&n90 t i USD (Martin va Hertel 1999) Noi dung choang trinh nghj s q thir hai la vbng dam phan t h ~ r a n g rnai thien nien k i dH bj tri h o b thhi gian tuc t q h6a diy Nhi?ng di&u sE nganh dich vu, ndng nghiep va d$t may Tao di&u kien thu$n lai cho cac luhng thuang rnai c6 15 la chuy6n bi&nchinh sach quan n h i t - cii dan phuang, song phuang va da ph~rang- ma cac chinh ph6 c6 th6 1hm d& dhm biio mot s q t5ng trubng cao va b i n v3ng ~ 8sinh i cAc doanh nghiep S q sup d6 c6 tinh h$ thhng clia khu vqc tai chinh Deng A dB bugc c8c nubc bj k h h g hoiing phai suy x6t lai m6i quan he gi3a nggn hang va kh8i doanh nghiep va gi3a doanh nghi$p va nha nubc H m n3a, nh3ng bai hoc r6t r a van duac nhhc nhb khkp khu vqc, khi&n nh3ng nobc v8n chi chiu Anh hubng rht nh6 ciia cugc kh6ng hohng- n h u Trung Qubc - ciing phhi thay d8i muc ti6u t8 chirc doanh nghiep clia minh Xtiy dung chi& luuc cho s u digu kjr m6i 183 Nhang s q thay d6i ca bhn dB duac dua vho lu$t quAn 1y ngin hang va ca c i u khu vqc t8i chinh va c6ng nghiep, va vao hoat dong q u i n 19 nha nubc d6i vai doanh nghiep va ngiin hang IndbnGsia, Han Qu6c va Thai Lan dB cling c6 viec di&uti&tkhu vqc tai chinh vh dhu t u manh vho cdng t8c giam s a t phbng ngha Malaisia, sau nhfing buac dhu thut lhi khbi c8c ti& chu6n d i n g cgp qu6c t&,d5 truy&n cho ch6ng met sirc manh m6i Trung Quhc ciing dB thuc thi nhQng tiGu chuin mai, duac qu6c t& cbng nhen viec diku ti&tth$n CuBc khhng hoing dB lam thay d6i ca b i n ca nganh c6ng nghiep tai chinh Thai Lan dB d6ng c6a 57 s6 91 cbng ty tai chinh HBn Qu8c cung da dbng cllra han 200 t6 chirc, k6 c i n g i n hang t h u m g mai la ngubi chlu trach nhiem v& s q chbng c h i t cac khohn nu t u n h i n tir truac khhng hoAng IndGnGsia d6ng cira 66 s6 237 ngin hhng Hun n3a Han Qu6c va Thai Lan lhn dhu tien d2 cho phkp ngin hang nuac ngoai sb hau ~ u a hien t nhi&u hinh thuc sb h u mai h m Indanesia d2 d i u t u 18% GDP d6 cung cap phuung tien toan cho cac ngiin hang vB han 30% cho viec tai cap vbn ngiin hang Han Qu6c d i u t u 5% GDP d6 h h r a phuang tien toan vB 11% khac vao viec tai chp v6n ngin hang Malaisia chi 13% GDP cho h6 tra phuang ti& toan va 2,4% khhc cho tai tip v6n, cbn Thhi Lan p h i i d i u t u 20% vao vice h6 tra phuang tien toan va 17% vao cac ngin hang c6ng cong vB tu nh2n Trung Quhc, v6n gap phhi nhf?ng van d&ti&mtang nghiem hon nhiku, da cam k i t chi 33 tjl USD cho viec tai cap v6n ngin hang (xem bBng 4.3) , , ~8 tra phuang tien toan va t8i cAp vbn - duac thqc hien d6 khbi phuc lbng tin cfia ngubi giri ti&nvB nha dau t u vao n g i n hang - dB khikn chinh ph& c6 tjr 1e sb hCru r i t 16n n&nkinh t i Chinh phii Indbnesia hien n i m giQ 78% t8i s i n ngsn hang thbng qua cac ngsn hang q u ~ doanh ho$c chikm mot t i 1an cac ngAn hang t u n h i n Chinh phfi Han Qu6c n i m giti 58% tai shn n g i n hang , cbn Thai Lan n i m gifi 32%, Malaisia 18% Va them chi mot qua trinh manh mB han dang dign rL : ng Q U ~ Cnai , chinh phh dang ban bat cac doanh nghiep nha nu,& va cac tai sAn thu hhi duac thbng qua vi$c dong cllra cac cbng ty d i u t u vB tin thhc ghn diy Ti? ngm 1997, chc chinh phh dB thqc hien nhCrng quy djnh va di&u luet di&u ti&t thi chinh m6i, tao r a mot he th6ng quhn 19 nhh nubc m6i d6i v6i doanh nghiep va n g i n hang Trong tat cB c8c nubc bi khhng hohng, t r u Malaisia, chinh phfi dB thbng qua nhf?ng luet m6i v& pha sAn doanh nghiep va quy&ncfia c6 d6ng vB chii nu Lhn song pha shn dhu tien d2 b i t d i u va sB a p d8t kjl luet mbi d6i vdi hhnh vi cfia doanh nghiep nhang n6m sau Con khu vqc tai chinh, chinh phli cho phkp tang tjr 1e sb h u nu6c ngoai nhfing nganh ma trubc diiy dS tdng d6ng kin, n h u nganh visn th6ng S q thay d6i chiin 11ruc d51 nhen lai ni&m tin cGa chc nha dhu t u va ngoai nuac - va da duuc dkn dap bang mot s q phpc hbi kinh t&manh mB Nhung nh3ng nz lqc hbi sinh lai cac donnh nghiep vsn chua hohn chinh vB r i t y6u a t trudc s q t q mBn ho$c chuy6n hubng cGa chinh sach Khbng thAy c6 may tiin be cac v i n d&cang t h i n g b kh6i ngiin hang va doanh nghiep d6 giai quy&t nhQng s q bat dinh cbn treo la ldng tren dhu qua trinh phuc hbi va tri8n vong tuang lai D6ng 18 chn chli d i n viec tai ca chu n g i n hang va doanh nghiep, nhumg c6 ban thach thuc dang de doa Thtl nhat, d2 duac bum thSm v6n nhung bhng cin dSi tai sAn c i ~ acac ngAn hBng vsn r i t y6u kkm Na kh6ng sin11 1b.i bang n5m l i n luang dq txfi t6n thgt tin dung b Ind6nGsia, Han QU~C Malaisia , va Thai Lan - va b Trung Qu6c tjl 1e cbn cao h m nhibu Cac ngiin hang d&uchn them v6n ~ h i &v6n u chi&m tir 2% tai s i n ngAn hhng n h u b Malaisia d&n 18% n h u b IndGnGsia Cbn lung chirng b gifia la Han Qubc (4%) va Thai Lan (8%) Thir hai, cac doanh nghiep v8n tinh trang nq n i n chhng c h i t , v6i p h i n t r i 12i v6n vay ' d8n tich lai kh6ng trH n6i Qua trinh b Ind6nesia h&tsirc tri tr$ - d&ncu6i n5m 1999, chi hohn duac 17% muc tieu ca c i u lai na Thai Lan ca c i u lai duac 29% t6ng s8 na, ;a khdng ti6n xa han d ~ r a cn3a, nuac c6 cac diku kien chinh tri thubn lai hon rht nhiku Han ~ u d dB c ca c i u lai duac 48% na va Malaisia duac 32%; c i hai nubc d&udang sirc vuan 16n Trong tuang lai trung han, sS! c6 mot tjr 1$ 161-1 cac doanh nghiep nh3ng nubc bi kh6ng hoHng d q ki6n hoat dong kh6ng sinh d6 lbi dd trang trAi nhi3ng khohn t r i 19i tin dung Tuy vay, visn cinh kh6ng phhi hoan toan den t6i, vi viec thi ca chu hoat dong th~rbngdi kem vai quh trinh ca chu lai na, c6 th& kh6ng dkn n8i nghiem n21u d ~ bao r ban dhu Ngay nh3ng thbi k h i c den t6i nhht c6a cuoc khilng hoing, dubng n h u vhn chn phii ca c i u lai hoan chinh c8c hogt dgng sAn x u i t va t6 chirc doanh nghiep Sau hbt, lai nhuan d2 giHm xudng tit nhiing n5m truirc kh6ng hoing, va nhiku c6ng ty d5 dhu t ~ qua r mLic vao cac hang h6a phi thuang mai Nhu8ngviri mirc gia tuang ddi va t i gi8 hien nay, dubng nhu hoat dong cSa cac cdng ty dang dqa tren mot n&n tAng vi?ng chic hon (chuang 4) Thir ba, cuoc khfing hoHng d2 bihn chinh ph6 ch6 sb h3u va ngirbi quhn 19 nhiku c6ng ty vB ng2n hang lirn chinh tai thai didm ma qua trinh toan cku h6a dang doi hbi nha n~rircchi giii mat vai trb t r ~ r ctikp khism t6n hun, va b6 sung b i n g vai trb lep phap manh m a a n Vi thk, cac nuirc bl kh6ng hoHng dirng truac hai nhi$m vu HQphAi ban birt nhiku s6 nhiLng tai sHn the0 cach mang lai nhi&u gia trj nhht cho nha nubc va giim birt ganh nang na ngin sach dang dgng cao Vg ho phAi lam duac viec d6 the0 each tao s ~ trhng r phat thba dang d6i vbi nh3ng ch6 sb hi?u cii, dua yku td canh tranh vao chc t6 chirc doanh nghi$p kk thha, va (hy vong) mb rong hinh thirc s6 h3i.u vdn Tinh chit khic nghiet c6a ch~rongtrinh hanh dong miri chi b i t dhu thd hien Thir t u , kinh nghiem c6a D6nga d8 chi ri5 thm quan cGa viec thu hep vai trb phAn b6 ngu8n lgc c6a chinh ph6 Ph2n b6 tin dung the0 chi dao, bAo l9nh v5n vay, mign g i i m thu& vh nhi3ng han chb thuong mai g i y m6o m6 thbng thubng d&ukh6ng th6 tao r a d ~ r a cnh3ng nganh c6ng nghiep miri, c6 khh n5ng canh tranh q ~ ~ tk dc Nh~rngchung lai tao n6n ky vong c6a t u nhhn r i n g mudn khuy&nkhich s q phat tridn c6a mot nganh, chinh phli s5 ciru giup nganh d6 n6 gap kh6 khan tai chinh Nhi?ng s g Lru d8i n h u th& c6 thd phat huy tac dung nh3ng giai doan phat tridn dku tien, nhung nhiku cai d2 bj loai bb d i n Ngay cH Trung ~ u cGng c dFi x6a bb chi dao tin dung truck c6 kh6ng hoAng Theo nhiing thba thubn vai WTO va APEC, nhi?ng khuykn khich thuang mai giiy m6o m6 nhi&un h i t r s"ej loai bb dhn Tra tip xuht khdu la tan d ~ cu6i cung c6a s q can thiep cGa chinh phS vao viec ph2n b6 nguhn lqc Viec lieu chinh ph6 c6 irng ph6 thich d.ang vai b6n thG thach tren hay kh6ng s6 quy&tdjnh hinh thai cho nhip tang tmbng thu nhep tucmg lai Chi vai nhCrng ngin hang duac tip vdn t6t han, ti&tkiem miri c6 thd duac chuy&nmot cach hi& quh nh3ng khohn dhu t u chn thibt dd bikn ti&mn5ng tang trubng c6a qu6c gxa hien thqc Chi viri nh3ng bHng c2n d6i tai sHn d2 d ~ a c ca chu lai thi c8c doanh nghiep m6i c6 uy tin di vay, miri la nhiing khach hang nang dgng ma ngin hang va thj truirng v8n ckn d6 c6 d~rucs v t5ng tr~rbngnhanh Va cfing chi bkng cach tao r a nhiing lai ich tdi da c6 duac til chc tai s i n tai chinh chinh ph6 nam gii? va bho dam r&ngcac t6 chirc doanh nghiep k&thila c6 khH n5ng canh tranh thi khu vqc c6ng cgng rnai c6 thd giHm nhe ganh n3ng ng nkn c6a minh vh bHo d i m mat kkt quH hoat dong c6 hi& quA cho thj truhng Hudng t6l mot kh6 udc x5 hdi m3: vai tr6 ciia chinh phir Kh& uac x2 hai mat thba thuan ngkm gi5a nh3ng d6i tuang bi nha nuac quhn 19 vh chinh ph6 c6a h~ - dang thay d6i D6ng A Ngay til X2y dvng chi& luqc cho su dieu kjr m6i 185 tr~rCrck h i ~ n ghoing, ngubi d$n Dbng A dB co xu hu6ng it sgn sang c h i p nhen mot s q tham gia han ch&trong chinh phli, cac quan chCw kh6ng c6 m i y tinh t h i n trach nhiem va mot mang luai an sinh xg hgi n3a vbi d&ddi l i y mirc thu nhap dang t5ng nhanh Viec tang tru.6ng bi chung lai da giii ph6ng nhang 1u.c luang lam thay d6i chinh tri, dgn d6n viec hinh n h s n g chinh phh m6i IndBn&sia,HBn Quhc vB Thai Lan Cuoc khilng hoAng dh d&lai nhi&udi sAn khac cho mot chinh quy&nmai Di&u dhu tiGn la na Viec trA na ngiin sach cang tang d5 v i t ki$t cac khoAn chi ti6u ng2n sach kh6ng d6 trh 1% khac ddng 15c chinh phfi dang muhn chi tiEu nhiiu han d6 b i o v$ cac n h b k cb thu nh&p t h i p khbi bi g i h thu nhap vB thht nghi$p, va 66 dhu tu them ,720 ca sb t i n g , ph6 va quAn 1y nganh h i i quan Cuoc kh6ng hoing ciing d5 b6c lo r i n g , nhiku th& ch6 nha nubc khbng duac chudn bi s i n sang d& d8i ph6 v6i nhGng th8ch thuc c6a met n i n kinh t&hien dai, toan c&uh6a H ~ hkt U cac th&ch6 ng2n sAch d&ug$p rkc rhi phhi dibu chinh the0 nh5ng muc ti6u u u ti6n mai va phhi thich nghi viri nhii.ng khosn chi ti6u sang tao vh linh hoat han Tuy c6ng tac q u i n ly hanh chinh dZi thay ddi nhiku nubc bi khfing hoing nhung cac nhi$m vp v& met th& chi c6a cbng cuec chi cach khu vcrc nh8 nuac miri chi b i t dku Suc 6p v& ng2n sach - b i t ngubn tir ganh nang na nh.n va s q thay ddi to 1an x5 hai - vB qua trinh toBn cku h6a dB buoc cac qu6c gia p h i i xem xbt lai vai tro cfia nha nudc Dubi a p lqc phhi lam nhibu han vai it n g u h luc hon, chinh phh si5 phhi tep trung vao cac quy dinh dibu t i i t d6 h'"o trg thi trubng phat tri&n,h a n ch6 n h t h g tac dong phv ti6u cuc, va h6 t r a cho nhGng doanh nghiep dang tut hau; cac chinh ph6 cb th&phAi gi6p da d i u t u t u nh2n cac hoat dong hien nha nubc doc quyin th6ng tri Chinh ph6 ciing ckn phii xitt lai td chtic cha nhh nutrc va trao nhihu trach nhi$m ciing n h u quykn lqc h m cho cac chinh quykn tip dudi ~ u ci h g , chinh phG ciing buoc phAi cii thien cac th$ ch6 vk quAn 19 c6ng - cac ca quan vB cac bo lien quan 'ct&nthu chi ng2n sach - cting n h u c6c djch v u nha nubc Cuoc khhng hoing cfing d2 cho t h i y r i n g , tang trubng kh6ng phAi 18 s q thay th& cho mot mang ludi an sinh x B hei h a u hieu - vB cugc suy thoai siiu s i c da dSy s u b i t dn l&n cao Nguai ngh80, ngubi dau y6u vB nguai gig dku c6 XU hu6ng ckn mat sq bAo tra miri truac t5ng trubng dang thay d6i nhanh ch6ng Tang trubng 18 dibu kien tiBn quy&td&g i i m dbi nghko, tAng thu nhgp va tao c6ng an vicc lam Nhung cac xi3 hoi dB hoi nhep viri nbn kinh t i tohn cku khbng duqc mign dich khbi cac cuec suy thoai hoac c6 shc tir bgn ngoAi D6ng A da t v t lei sau c8c k h u vtrc dang phat tri&n khac viec giup dB cac gia dinh bio tra cho ngubi gia Han n a , c8c nu6c kh611g duac chugn bi d&d6i ph6 v6i vi$c ngubi d2n tr6n dien rgng p h i i chju dqng nhCing thiet hai cuac khling hoAng c6 he th6ng g2y Nhung p h i n ung them tr8, nira vbi hay diit doan b i t ngu'bi d$n DBng A p h i i t r i gia dgt Cac th& chi, h$ thang th6ng tin, vB mang lu6i an sinh tan tai tli truirc khfing hoing dB trbi buoc khA nang phAn ung mau le va t h o i dang cha chinh ph6 NhiTng thuc t i dZi vach rb hutmg di mai cho chinh sach Cac chin11 phli p h i i nu6i duOng cac th&chi c6 k h i nang Ling ph6 duac v6i met s6 dan thBnh thi dang tang l6n vB gih di, ma s6 d2n c6 xu huCrng chm thhy d$ bi tdn t h u m g h m mot thk gibi dang toan cku hba vdi he th8ng tra giup gia dinh y&u kbm H$ th8ng thBng tin cha chinh phfi phhi phhn irng nhanh h m vao nh5ng thbi di6.m c6 khhng hosng Va mang ludi an sinh x5 hai p h i i manh han - c6 th& mir rong (hogc thu hep) thy the0 tinh hinh kinh t6 Cac chinh sAch luang h u u va bho hi&mthht nghi$p SB thay d6i the0 tirng nuirc Tuy nhign, toan khu vgc, dbi h6i ceia ngubi d5n p h i i c6 nhfing chucmg trinh h e u hi& c6 th& sSt k h i i n hg chn duac hi$n dien nhiku h m trBn vii dai chinh tri Lam cho ngubi ngheo trb mot phkn cha qu8 trinh tang trubng - b i n g cach tang nang s u i t lao dijng cfia ho - se cang trh v i n d& tiim d& bHo dHm phan thu nhap tang Ien duqc chia sk rgng khap CBn d6i cac rnyc ti6u: c6ng viec cfia qu6c gia MBi nubc D6ng A dku phai tim mct sq cin d8i dung d i n n~rbcdo phai d6i rn$t viri nhGng th6ch t h h clia viec quAn 19 qua trinh toan chu h6a, hBi sinh cac doanh nghiep va hubng tbi mct kh& ~ r a cxa hai mai ~ vai i chc nubc bi khfing hoHng, muc ti6u 18 phai chii d&n nhQng khia canh tiGn tian nh6t clia viec chi tiin th6 ch& - quHn Ijr c8c tai khoHn v6n mb, giAi quy&tcac tac dong tan d u ciia cugc khfing hoHng, t5ng cubng c8ng tac quHn 1y hanh chinh nha nudc, dao tao ngubi ngheo D&t2ng n5ng s u i t , Chinh ph6 HBn Qubc da quay sang cac uu ti&nv&th6 ch&- n h i t la giao duc - liGn quan d&nm8i quan he v6i n&nkinh td tri thirc Malaisia va Thai Lan dang hoan t i t tidn trinh ca c i u lai, tang canh tranh doanh nghiep va tai chinh, nAng cao trinh giao duc cho ca nguai ngheo l i n nhiing ngubi c6 hoc vhn tuang d6i cao Ind8nGsia va Philippin, nha c&i thicn cbng tac q u i n 19 nha nuirc va g i n nguai ngheo vBo qu5 trinh tang trubng, dB c6 thk rnang lai nhang khoan "c6 tirc dgc biet cao" cho nhitng n3 l ~ r ccfing c6 thd ch& D8i v6i Trung ~ u cva Viet Nam, muc tii!u xoay quanh viec cHi cach th6 ch&nhhm dsy manh qua trinh chuy&nddi tir k& hoach sang thi trubng Cac doanh nghi$p tu' nhiin phHi dong vai tro trung tzm, cbn chinh phfi tap trung vao viec di&u tidt d6 c2n d6i nhitng hiju quH v& m$t x2 hgi va m6i truang qua trinh p h j t tri6n the0 huang thi trubng tao NhQng s i p dst miri v&m$t th6 ch6 sc tra cho s q tang trubng 6n dinh, nhanh ch6ng vh thilc ddy tinh chht chi ~ n hoan h toan clia tBi khohn v6n Nhung nhfing rang bugc ckng kgnh kh6ng th&ng2n cHn 1211dai buac di vGng manh ciia qu8 trinh lien k&ttai chinh van dB thgc s g b i t d i u , vi thk chinh phh phHi sir dung vai n8rn tikp the0 d6 quHn 19 qua trinh - va tranh bi ch6ng cu6n di Trung Q U ~ Cvai , mgt chuang trinh duac tri&nkhai t6t vh viec gia nhGp WTO, dang lqa chon met 18i di tinh t&theo huirng hei nhap Viet Nam m6i chi b i t dhu xAy dung ti&n trinh tao bao cila minh Cac nu6c nhb khu vvc, bl Anh hubng n$ng nk bhi cuoc khiing hoHng, d2 vuan I&n v6i nheng th6 ch& ca b i n chiu tuang d6i it sirc 6p phai thay d6i cuoc khfing hoHng giiy ~ & t quA la, cac nubc nhb kh6ng the0 kip cugc vGt lijn clia cac nuac ti6n ti&nhan viec phAt tri&n th& chd nham g i n cAc lqc lusang thi trubng th6 giai v8i lqi thd cha nuac minh CAc n u ~nh6 v i n c6 nguy ca tut h2u D6 husbngthu lai ich cGa toan c i u hoa, ho phai dam dirng l&n duang d i u vai nhGng thi? thach cam go n h i t QuAn 19 qua trinh toan cau h6a c6 ngh?a la phHi khdc phgc dugc sq thay d6i ghe gam t i 1e trao ddi thuang mai gia cH hang h6a dao dijng manh, va d& lam duac di&ud6 dbi hbi phHi c6 nhGng th6 ch&nha nuirc t8t han QuHn 13 nha nudc phHi mang lai ni&m tin - kh6ng phHi tham nhting - cho ngubi dau tu Cac chinh sach phHi mang tinh trung lap d&thuc ddy manh n h i t s v p h i t tri&ntrong nuirc Va cac chinh sach x2 hiji phAi tao ca hei cho nhitng nguhi ngheo dBng dHo vB chli y&usang b ndng than cfia qu8c gia, d&ho du0.c h u h g lai ttr mat n&n kinh t& mb rgng, d MBng C6, muc tiGu quHn 19 nh8 nubc bao gbm viec cling c6 nkn d2n chh cbn non y&u,t2ng cubng cac the chd chi ti&u chinh phh, vB dau t u vao ca sh tang c8ng cgng Campuchia cGng phHi lam nhigu diku tuang tq, nhung viec chuy6n bi&nnhanh d6 lai lbng tin ciia c6ng ch6ng - ya cfia nha dau t u - d6i vai cac th6 chk nha nuirc la mot muc ti6u can duac uu tiGn dac biet cao Lao va nuirc Papua Niu Ghini! gi&u tai nguyen ciing dang dirng truac nhi?ng thach thirc tuSongt q Cbn cac q u i n dao b Thai Binh Duang c6 met khu v u cdng ~ phu thu(ic nhi&uvao vien tra dang phinh rgng, cung vai cac quy dinh bHo hij nhGng doanh nghiep va nh6m dac lgi nhht dinh, dang cuirp di cac khoan d i u t u nuac va nuac ngoai v6n co the giup dgy manh tang truirng cha khu vqc X&y dung chikn luuc cho su dieu kL m6i 187 c5c doanh nghiep V6i hoat dong t u vhn vh giam s a t htiu hieu, c8c n&n kinh t& khu vuc s G chju Bp Iuc l6n d&the0 du8i cac chinh shch c6 kjl cuung n h i m 6n dinh dbng tikn va cac thi khoin d6i ngoai CBc chinh sach khac dang duqc t h i o lufjn chc di6n dhn khu vuc c6 th6 18 nhiing n8 luc d&nAng cao tiGu chugn chung, tinh minh bach vh giam sAt Ihn nhau, cac chinh sach v i l u h g v6n n g i n hen, thuang mai vh dku tu ~ h i k tac u nhAn - n h u c8c t8 chuc t u nh2n, NgAn hang Th&gi6i vh IMF - d5 dua c5c tiGu chugn c6 th6 a p dung vh thuc thi cho t i t c6 c5c tac nhAn khac khu VUC.Trao d8i thdng tin gi3a chc chinh phli vh cAc ng2n hhng trung u m g cfing sE dua d&n s u hup t i c kinh tb vi md chat ch8 hun vk c8c chinh sach ph6i hap, c8c thba thufjn hoAn d6i tam thhi, v.v Nhiing n8 Iqc m6i khu vuc thdng qua APEC vh ASEAN c6 th6 18 n h i m thi&tlap nhiing yGu cku chung v& cung chp thdng tin cho chc doanh nghiep t u nh2n trGn cu s6 nh3ng nguyen t i c k&toan d5i thba thuen, c6 18 the0 cach Bp dung c8c nguyen t i c dB duqc thk gi6i c h i p nhen Ngohi ra, nhffng v i n dk khac c6 th6 thba thuen duuc 18: Cdng b6 cac thdng tin vk d g trii vh nu nuirc ngo&i, k& c6 nhiing sang ki6n the0 cach duuc IMF Sng N2ng cao tinh minh bach vh tinh hinh ngAn sach - mot qua trinh c6 th6 khai thac duuc s u h6 tru ky thufjt va tai tru cSa IMF vh NgAn hang ~ h gi6i & Phat tri6n c5c quy trinh vh phuung phap chung d6 Iuung h6a c8c khobn phi tan thu6 vh tra chp s i n x u i t (c6 th6 mang tinh c h i t canh tranh) D&ra tieu chusn cho mot tinh trang x5 hoi tat, mot vhn d&hien dang duuc Ng2n hang Thb gihi tri6n khai hik kt l@pmot h$ thang m6 hinh h6a c6 khh nang c i n h bao s6m (Iinh vqc nhy vgn cbn dang thbi kjl phdi thai, vi th&nhfing n8 Iqc dku tiGn sG lh giam sat phat tri6n thdng qua cac t8 chuc thi chinh qu8c t&vh khu vqc t u nh2n thay met cac b6 trubng khu vuc) CBc chinh sach d8i v6i luBng v8n n g i n han c6 th6 di the0 huirng gi6m thi&us q bibn dong khu vuc vh giiia khu vuc v6i c8c nuirc khAc trGn th6 gi&i CBc lubng v8n n g i n h a n 18 nguyGn nhAn chinh g2y hieu ung I2y Ian v8 su bi&n dong khu vuc PhAt tri6n c8c hinh thuc phu h q v6i thi t r u h g d6 bu d i p nhfing chi phi x5 hail s u dao dong cac h a n g v8n n g i n han g2y ra, c6 th6 gilip cac nubc thikt l@pduuc mot khu6n kh6 chinh sach n h i m tranh sq b i t lqi cho tung nudc CBc chinh sach hien dang duac th6o luen c6 th6 1Bm tang chi phi vay n g i n han b i n g cach danh thub c8c luhng vbn chHy vao, quy djnh d u trii b i t buoc cao, hay yGu cku c8c phi t r i cho ngAn hhng trung uung d8i v6i cac khobn b6o lBnh chinh phli Nh3ng di&un8y c6 th6 liGn quan dkn vi$c diku tibt cac ng2n hang t8t hun d6 d6m b i o s q c2n d8i giiia tai sAn c6 vh thi s i n nu (NgAn hang Th&gihi 2000a) Gong dbng qu8c t&d6ng mot vai tich cqc mhn kich ~ nKhi~ v6n ~ t u nhfin rlri bb khu w c nhy thi cBc n g u h v8n chinh thirc d5 r6t vho vh gi6p 6n dinh lai t8i kho6n v6n CBc l u h g v6n chinh thirc ch6y v8o Inddnesia, HBn Qu6c, Malaisia, Philippin, va Thai Lan d5 tang til tjr USD niim 1996 IGn d6n 29 tjl USD nam 1997 vh 22 tjr USD niim 1998 (con s8 t8ng h q ) T u nam t8i kh6a 1996 d i n nam thi kh6a 1999, NgAn hang hun hai lkn t6c dij gi6i ngAn Th&giiri dB tang gip cho khu vuc, t i l t$ USD IGn tjr USD H ~ U nhu I ~ i c1-180 nhfing sang ki&nda phuung cfing di kkm v6i s u h8 trq tai chinh to ldn til phia Nh@tB i n vh cac nu6c OECD khac - va mat s8 trubng hap, cbn t u phia c5c nu& khu vuc n h u Trung ~ u vh c Singapo CBc l u h g song phuung trung binh dat gkn tjl USD n8m 1997-1999, t2ng IGn til mirc gkn 300 trieu USD Khu vuc v&ntikp tyc nhen duuc s q h8 trq dai han chinh thirc vh da phuung, nhung luqng v8n hB tru dB giAm vh cu chu cho vay ciing c6 xu hu6ng quay v&v6i nh3ng nu6c Ddng A thu nhfjp t h i p vh the0 h u h g cho vay the0 dq an n h u thbng 1e (chu khdng phii h8 tru can c2n toan nfia) ~ h i & sang u ki6n dB duuc xem x6t th6o luijn v&c i u trlic t8i chinh qu8c t& gifia c5c nuuc X3y dung chikn luac cho su dieu kjr m6i 189 G-22 vh chc 6y ban c6a IMF vh NgAn hang Th6 giM (NgBn hang Th& giCi 2000b; IMF 2000) (khung 7.3) Ngoai viec quy djnh cac ti6u chusn vh y&u c i u cung cAp thdng tin, nh3ng sang lu&n nhy cbn b a o d m han mire n a cac g6i ciru tra thi chinh khsn tip, quy m6 vB hinh thirc vi$n trg Xiy dmg mot &u tnjc t i i chinh h6 trq quih t6 Cuoc khing hoing D6ng A d i lam bung ten n h h g cuoc t h i o lugn vk mot c i u truc tai chinh qu6c t6 Muc ti& chung cGng d6ng qu6c t6 la nhim tang cudng cac ~ubngv6n qu6c t6 va giim bol tinh bi6n dong c i a chung Mot linh vuc t i m la phii cb th6ng tin d i y d i hon va minh bach han Th6ng tin d i y d i han va kip thdi han vk muc dQ cho vay c i a n h h g t i chuc cho vay qu6c t6, nhit loat c i a ~ubngv6n va khing hoing Ngay tu trudc cuoc khing hoing D6ng A, bao cao n i m 1996 c i a nhom G-10, Ngh! guyit v i khljng hoing k h i n2ng toan doc I4p, d i thuc giuc IMF phii nhanh chbng giim thi6u hanh vi lgi dung b i o IZnh, c6 y lam liku c i a n h h g ngudi cho vay va di vay va "ting cudng n i n g luc cho cac chinh p h i dd ching lai n h h g ap luc p h i i nhgn ng nudc ngoii la cho vay ngan han, sE boc lo n h h g di6m y6u s6m han Cljng vdi c a c t i chuc khac, Ngin hang ~ h gidi va IMF da d& nhang ti& chuin mdi viec truy&n ba th6ng tin vk muc du tra va ng nudc ngoai, va cac nudc vi6n cho khu vuc tu nhin cac nudc do" Mac du nhiku trudng hap, mot d6i sach manh c i a cac nudc - k6t hgp vdi cac ngubn luc chinh thirc - c6 th6 thi6t I$p ca s6 dk 6n djnh hoa va phuc hbi t i n g truhng, nhung c6ng c6 thk cb trudng dk nghj ap dung vao n i m 2000 (Nellor 1999) Ngoai ra, cac dao lugt mdi vk tinh trang Ianh manh c i a cac diku kien tai khoa, tikn te va tai chinh cing d i dugc th6ng qua Mot linh vuc khac la n g i n hang va cbng tac giam sat, mot linh vuc ma cac nguyen t i c c8t I6i Basle dang dugc c i n g c6 LSnh vuc thu ba la thj trudng c h h g khoan TB chuc Cy ban C h h g khoan qu6c tk d i soan thio cac nguyen t i c vb tieu chua?nv6 viec cung tip th6ng tin, va viec thuc hien chung dang dugc thio lugn Linh vuc thu tu, k6 t o i n vb kikm toin, dang dugc Cy ban Tieu chuin ~6 toan qu6c t6 xem xet, vdi muc ti& la th8ng nhit cac ti& chuin vao n i m 2002 IMF va Ngin hang ~ h gidi d i bit d j u mot chuang trinh thi di6m danh gia khu vuc tai chinh nhim danh gia he th6ng tai chinh c i a cac nudc va n6 luc c i a n h h g nudc viec thuc hien cac nguyen t i c tren Viec q u i n Iy nha nudc vk pha s i n va doanh nghiep cing la d6i tugng c i a mot bo lugt mdi vk v i n d& m i t k h i ning t r i ng giaa cac nudc hy ban Lugt thuang mai qu6c t6 c i a Lien hop qu6c ban hanh, va hien dang dugc chuy6n Ien chc chinh phi, v i cing la d6i tugng c i a Luc lugng Thuc thi OECD vk cac nguyen tac quin Iy nha nudc d6i vdi doanh nghiep Nhang bien phap co th6 giup phong ngua cac cuoc khing hoing bing cach th6ng tin d i y d i han cho thj trudng in dk g i y tranh c i i han la su c i n bing giaa tai chinh chinh thuc v i t i i chinh tu nhin d6 d8i ph6 vdi sura di hang hgp ma n h h g tac dung xuc tac c i a cac chuang trinh kh6ng d i Trong nhiing tinh hu6ng do, c6 thk c j n p h i i co n h h g budc di dk b i o d i m s u hien dien them niia c i a t u nhin, b i n g cach thu gom n h h g khoin ng khit lai hay cac ca ch6 khac dk b i o d i m r i n g ganh nang dugc san s6 vdi n h k g ngu6i cho vay t u n h i n (Fischer 1999a) Co hai Iy cho dibu Thu nhit la dk d i m b i o r i n g cac nha d j u t u kh6ng quy6t dinh dua tren d u ki6n cho ring ho s6 dugc cuu giup tinh hinh d i u tu x i u di Thu hai, n h h g t i chirc cho vay chinh thuc cb mot ngubn luc eo hep ma mot s6 trudng hop, don giin la kh6ng thd t i i trg dugc cho c i c chuang trinh An djnh h6a va phuc hbi 06ng A d i dugc ki6m chung vk su eo hep v i n dk n8y Mot su thay d6i kkm theo dang dugc xem xet la diku chinh cac hiep d/nh v i trai va vay ng chuin theo hudng yeu c i u phii co su nhit tri c i a da s6 (chu 190 DBng A: Phuc hbi vB phht tri&n kh6ng phii nhit tri tuyet d6i) vk cac chuang trinh tai ca c i u ng, va dd cho phep co su phin biet d6i xir r6 han d6i vdi phin toan cho nhDng c h i ng ca nhin N h h g v i n dk hien dang tranh c i i (xem Eichengreen 1999; Fischer 1999b; N g i n hang ~ h gidi 2000b; va IMF 2000) N h h g k6t cuc mang lai mot quy trinh minh bach han, co quy t$c hbn s& tao n h k g thudc t i t han vk chi phi va lgi ich c i a viec cho vay, g i i m bdt hanh vi Igi aung b i o Ianh c6 y lam liiu, va g i i m bdt nhiing cu s6c kh6ng ludng trudc d6i vdi thj trudng nuac ngohi, v8 cac diku kien thich hap d6 cho vay, nhht 15 s g csn dbi giiia cac muc ti6u kinh tb vi m6 n g i n han vai cac chinh sach ca chu (Eichengreen 1999; Fischer 1999; Bhattacharya va Kawaii 1999) D6ngA - vB cac nuac dang phat tri6n khac - sE duac lai nhb met gihi ph6p mau 1e va mang tinh c h i t xgy dung v&nh3ng v!in db S q 1on xijn lam chao d i o khu vuc vh thb gibi dfi b8o truac mijt thay d6i Ian lao cach tibp ten qua trinh t'oan cku h6a clia C ~ nuire C Ddng A, cbch t6 chuc doanh nghiep, va khb u6c xfi hoi gi3a chinh phS va ngubi dGn Trong can khling hohng, hku n h u tung nutic da c6 nh3ngsang ki&n thay d6i th6 ch&dang ngac nhien - thucmg mai vB t8i chinh, doanh nghiep, chinh ph6 vh chinh sach xEi hei - vbn Ia nh3ng thay d6i c8n thiit d6 phat dGng met kf nguyen mtri tBng trubng cao S q phuc hbi manh mG la phkn thubng cho nh3ng buac d i u cam go thqc hien nh3ng chinh sach rnai V i n cbn c i n xet xem lieu s q phuc hbi c6 tao di&ukien thuen 1ai cho bu6c thir hai cSa chi cach n h i m dua tai nhiing nam thhng tBng trubng cao lien tuc hay khbng Phuc hbi c6 th6 dgn dbn s u t u m5n vB lam chdm lai qua trinh c6i cach du6i 6p lqc cha nhi&u Iqi ich chinh tri - mot trubng hup do, s u phpc hbi h6m sE bi gyc bbi ganh nang trA na, nhiing khoin nu kh6ng sinh Ibi dang gia tang ngsn hang, nh3ng doanh nghiep thua 16 c6a mai, khi&nkhu vqc phAi dhi m$t vai can sbng tikp the0 c6a nh3ng c6 s8c qubc t i Hai phhn c6a csu t r i Ibi dB rb rang Cac nuirc D6ng A cb ngubn lqc vb thi chinh va ngubi, d6 v u m tai mot kf nguyen m6i tBng trubng cao va duac chia s&rong khkp Vtri jr nghia O thien nign k i d6, cac nuac si5 buac V ~ mijt rnai ma ho c6 th6 ki6m soat phkn lun s8 phdn clia minh Va bang viec c h i p nhan toan c8u h6a, cb ging qu6n 19 n6 theo cach c6 lui cho quhc gia, cac nubc d5 c6 buac khbi dku day i n tuung Mubi ngm k& t u hbm nay, v6i bu6c di v3ng chic v8o thien ni6n kjr m6i, ngubi dGn D6ng A s5 nhin lai vB thhy cuoc kh6ng ho6ng nBm 1997 la met buac ngoat vi dai ljch sir c6a ho Va ho sE t h i y k i t quh rb rang - nh3ng ca hoi d6 thay d6i th6 chi sE bi bb la hay sE i butrc khbi d8u cho mot qua trinh bi&nd6i ljch sPr dhy t q hao PHU LUC Nghien cGu v6 t i n g n i n g sugt toan bQ c6c y6u tto"s i n xu& it D6ng A % thay d& na'ng suit Nuuc, tac giz NZm xu21 b i n Thbi gian d6 c4p hang na'm Ind6n6sia Ngin hang ~ h giui Kawai Nehru va Dhareswar Bosworth va cac nuuc khac Drysdale va Huang Sarel Trung binh 00 lech chua"n Han Qu6c N g i n hang ~ h giui k Bosworth va cac nuuc khac X2y dung chikn luac cho s u digu kjr m6i 191 PHU LUC (tigp) % thay d6; nZng s u d Nuuc, tac g i i NZrn xuii b i n Thdi gian d6 cap hang na'rn 1996 1985-94 22 Young Trung binh 06 lech chuin Malaisia Ngin hang ~ h giui Kawai Nehru va Dhareswar Bosworth va cac nuuc khac Drysdale va Huang Sarel Trung binh 06 lech chua"n Philippin Kawai Nehru va Dharewar Bosworth va cac nuuc khac Drysdale va Huang Sarel Trung binh 06 lech chuin Thai Lan N g i n hang The* giui Kawai Nehru va Dhareswar Bosworth va nuuc khac Drysdale va Huang Sarel Trung binh 06 lech chua"n Trung Qu6c Ngin hang ~ h giui Ngu6n: Aswicahyono va Hill 1999; Tinh toan cia nhhn vi6n Nghn hang he giui nhanh va p h i n ph6i thu nhap t6t hsn - met tinh hu6ng t6t dep nhat Chlj thich - thi chi co 22 trieu nguui s6ng vui muc dudi I USD met ~ k u phin ph6i thu nhap xau di thi c i ting trubng nhanh cGng Vdi chuan USD met ngiy, s6 ngudi nghko b D6ng A udc chi c6 thk g i i m s6 nguui nghko xu6ng muc 132 trieu ngu&i m i thBi tinh la 278 trieu nguui n i m 1998 T i n g trubng hang n i m 3%, vui ~ n nguui duuc djnh nghia la luc bung lao deng co tinh p h i n ph6i thu nhap nhu cG, sB khikn 150 trieu nguui s6ng duui dkn c i chat luung lao deng (do Iuung gian tikp b i n g trinh d6 hoc duung giui hgn nghko d6i v i o n i m 2008, so vui s; 63 trieu van trung binh) No bao gbm ba be phgn cau thanh: tj, d i n s6 nguui nku t i n g trubng trung binh dgt 7% V8i kjch b i n t i n g trubng de tu6i lao dong (do Lien hap qu6c uuc tinh), tj, le tham gia 192 DBng A: Phuc h6i va phat tri6n tai lieu vk giao duc (Psacharopoulos 1994 va Mincer 1974) Ch6ng t6i sb d"ng he sb Mincer bang , l (UBc tinh cho cac nudc c6 thu nhep trung binh; phin tich khBng thay d6i s a dung he sb vdi gia trj b i n g 0,07 va 0,13) €6x2y dung chudi s6 v& v6n vst chat, chling t6i lhy trCf luung v6n ban d i u c i a Nehru va Dhaeshwar (1993) Chljng t6i d i n g gia trj (a) cb dinh b i n g 0,4 cho tht c; cac nudc rnzu (sh dung cac gia trj khac c i a u nhu 0,3 va 0,5 kh6ng g2y su djnh tinh nao ddi viri kkt qu6 ph2n tich) Chljng t6i g i i dinh delta ( ) bang 0,06 T i i lieu tham kh6o Asmicahyono, Haryo, and Hal Hill 1999 "Perspiration vs Inspiration in Asian Industrialization: Indonesia before the Crisis." 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Paper prepared for Emerging Market Traders' Association Annual Meeting, December, New York .1999b "On the Need for an lnternational Lender of Last Reson." journal of Econotnic Perspectives 13 (4): 83-104 194 DBng A: Phuc hbi vh phat tri&n G I (Group of 18) 1996 The Resol~ttionofsovereign Liquidity Crises: A Report to the Ministers ~ n Governors d Basle: Bank for International Settlements Hanna, Don, and Sandra Lawson 1999 "A Further Rebound in Asian Growth: Is Restructuringa Must?" Global Economics Paper 10 Goldman Sachs Economics Website (hnp.Ilwv.gs.com) I M F [International 'Monetary Fund) 1998 "Korea: Third Quarterly Review." Staff paper Washingion, D.C - 1999a "Korea Economic and Policy Developments." Staff paper Washington, D.C - 1999b "Thailand: Statistical Appendix." 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Quarterly jortmal of Economics 110 (3): 641-68 XBy dung chibn luuc cho su dieu ky mai 195 Chiu trach nhiem xu6t bHn TF& D ~ N HNGHIEM Bi6n t$p: H O ~ PHONG G HA N G U Y ~ NKWH HOA NGWEN KIM NGA PHONG TAO M.AU Trinh bay, bia: BAN QUOC ~6 S3a bhn in: ~ In 2.500 cuan, kh6 21 x 28 cm, tai Xi nghiep in A Phi i phbp & x u~i t bHn s8: 61-444/CXB-QLXB c&pngay thang n2m 2000 In xong va n(ip luu chi& thang 10 ni3m 2000 MS ~ :3.33(T)(41) CTQG-2000 ~ & h & ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d q d ~ ~ f ~ i ~ h a ~ ~ kh&'hdhgki~h @wOQngfi lrhdng&ibaoahcbc f&bcM&~kiiih@u~~&&&@&ckh~& Hn-rn~~~A;h~in~.~n&1kinhd&& v5 tra$ ckh &&uh3nh ho@.fl$i kith ktoanh caG& 'troirgkfru w c;ic dgng &&t * ' R:~&~&.viiph~rtn'&p~ln't+~~b ha7clra qud.lfinh pfi* MIv b - e c a Bui: lii ~yt~nkph~f&~~~~slrpsgrri?nc&~~ &rrJn&k' c Qub t8nh phqc h& cd tl& t$ t h n tm kS t$q~whgaosdnh dwc v&J nhhg nilmhdng thh k+khsngf C4 phAi -a@kGng kang lim &my &i mot c h vTnh v i h ciic chf8n lupr: phit trih t 4n h mbng a d & khu twT NMm &a cAc d& giid bzra g&tj,e$ng&ng q& ti$, @ng Btw g doarih w$p, nM.bcfi flnh chinh &h rrong k h u ~v ,i c@g dQng.kn lam, &tq wlnh n@i@m rdydnl; hgp cAc ~ ntrinh a g$m Bay nhg, dbg driri cung dp met 56 bki ph& ffch cy tb6 m@t ci3o $3 ji& trian & eaic nhk ti5.cb &rn quan tnpn8 guy& &ph UBi is3 N@n Mng Th&gk%.C3ng trinh n@ dm R rrik kith MI & &hh &ch tha c k nhB kqIchdinh ehinh $&h tmng khu vrpc ua t+l!*s thbg qua viN6&ura & du I?liric &v$ th* tr3 "1% d m B k k n& d o g Mt 31th t h h n & h ak s h m ~ g M ... Brixi, Craig Burnside, Steen Byskov, Amanda Carlier, Shaohua Chen, Stijn Claessens, Gaurav Datt, Simeon Djankov, Giovani Ferri, Christine Freund, Swati Ghosh, Alejandro Izquierdo, Bala B.N Kalimili,... Martin vh Christina Wood C h o m g Sanjay Dhar vi&t,v6i s q dbng g6p c6a Kathie Krumm vh S Ramachandran Cac t6c g i i c6a c h a m g la Richard Newfanner vh Barbara Nunberg, cung viri cac dbng gbp... k&c6a Christina Wood James Hanson 1h tfic g i i chinh cfia chomg, viri met s6 phhn Li Gang Liu, Sandeep Mahajan, Calos Serrano dbng gbp Chucmg Milan Brahmbhatt vibt, viri s q d6ng g6p c5a Carl