IT project management 3rd by THompson chappter 11

Chapter 11: Project Risk Management Learning Objectives • Understand what risk is and the importance of good project risk management • Discuss the elements involved in risk management planning • List common sources of risks on information technology projects • Describe the risk identification process and tools and techniques to help identify project risks • Discuss the qualitative risk analysis process and explain how to calculate risk factors, use probability/impact matrixes, the Top Ten Risk Item Tracking technique, and expert judgment to rank risks Learning Objectives • Explain the quantify risk analysis process and how to use decision trees and simulation to quantitative risks • Provide examples of using different risk response planning strategies such as risk avoidance, acceptance, transference, and mitigation • Discuss what is involved in risk monitoring and control • Describe how software can assist in project risk management • Explain the results of good project risk management The Importance of Project Risk Management • Project risk management is the art and science of identifying, assigning, and responding to risk throughout the life of a project and in the best interests of meeting project objectives • Risk management is often overlooked on projects, but it can help improve project success by helping select good projects, determining project scope, and developing realistic estimates • A study by Ibbs and Kwak show how risk management is neglected, especially on IT projects • KPMG study found that 55 percent of runaway projects did no risk management at all Table 11-1 Project Management Maturity by Industry Group and Knowledge Area What is Risk? • A dictionary definition of risk is “the possibility of loss or injury” • Project risk involves understanding potential problems that might occur on the project and how they might impede project success • Risk management is like a form of insurance; it is an investment Risk Utility • Risk utility or risk tolerance is the amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff – Utility rises at a decreasing rate for a person who is risk-averse – Those who are risk-seeking have a higher tolerance for risk and their satisfaction increases when more payoff is at stake – The risk-neutral approach achieves a balance between risk and payoff Figure 11-1 Risk Utility Function and Risk Preference What is Project Risk Management? The goal of project risk management is to minimize potential risks while maximizing potential opportunities Major processes include – Risk management planning: deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for the project – Risk identification: determining which risks are likely to affect a project and documenting their characteristics – Qualitative risk analysis: characterizing and analyzing risks and prioritizing their effects on project objectives – Quantitative risk analysis: measuring the probability and consequences of risks – Risk response planning: taking steps to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to meeting project objectives – Risk monitoring and control: monitoring known risks, identifying new risks, reducing risks, and evaluating the effectiveness of risk reduction Risk Management Planning • The main output of risk management planning is a risk management plan • The project team should review project documents and understand the organization’s and the sponsor’s approach to risk • The level of detail will vary with the needs of the project Table 11-7 Example of Top 10 Risk Item Tracking Monthly Ranking Risk Item This Last Month Month Number Risk Resolution of Months Progress Inadequate planning Working on revising the entire project plan Poor definition of scope 3 Holding meetings with project customer and sponsor to clarify scope Absence of leadership Just assigned a new project manager to lead the project after old one quit Poor cost estimates 4 Revising cost estimates Poor time estimates 5 Revising schedule estimates Expert Judgment • Many organizations rely on the intuitive feelings and past experience of experts to help identify potential project risks • Experts can categorize risks as high, medium, or low with or without more sophisticated techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis • Often follows qualitative risk analysis, but both can be done together or separately • Large, complex projects involving leading edge technologies often require extensive quantitative risk analysis • Main techniques include – decision tree analysis – simulation Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value (EMV) • A decision tree is a diagramming method used to help you select the best course of action in situations in which future outcomes are uncertain • EMV is a type of decision tree where you calculate the expected monetary value of a decision based on its risk event probability and monetary value Figure 11-4 Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Example Simulation • Simulation uses a representation or model of a system to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the system • Monte Carlo analysis simulates a model’s outcome many times to provide a statistical distribution of the calculated results • To use a Monte Carlo simulation, you must have three estimates (most likely, pessimistic, and optimistic) plus an estimate of the likelihood of the estimate being between the optimistic and most likely values What Went Right? A large aerospace company used Monte Carlo simulation to help quantify risks on several advanced-design engineering projects The National Aerospace Plan (NASP) project involved many risks The purpose of this multibillion-dollar project was to design and develop a vehicle that could fly into space using a single-stage-to-orbit approach A single-stage-to-orbit approach meant the vehicle would have to achieve a speed of Mach 25 (25 times the speed of sound) without a rocket booster A team of engineers and business professionals worked together in the mid-1980s to develop a software model for estimating the time and cost of developing the NASP This model was then linked with Monte Carlo simulation software to determine the sources of cost and schedule risk for the project The results of the simulation were then used to determine how the company would invest its internal research and development funds Although the NASP project was terminated, the resulting research has helped develop more advanced materials and propulsion systems used on many modern aircraft Risk Response Planning • After identifying and quantifying risks, you must decide how to respond to them • Four main strategies: – Risk avoidance: eliminating a specific threat or risk, usually by eliminating its causes – Risk acceptance: accepting the consequences should a risk occur – Risk transference: shifting the consequence of a risk and responsibility for its management to a third party – Risk mitigation: reducing the impact of a risk event by reducing the probability of its occurrence Table 11-8 General Risk Mitigation Strategies for Technical, Cost, and Schedule Risks Risk Monitoring and Control • Monitoring risks involves knowing their status • Controlling risks involves carrying out the risk management plans as risks occur • Workarounds are unplanned responses to risk events that must be done when there are no contingency plans • The main outputs of risk monitoring and control are corrective action, project change requests, and updates to other plans Risk Response Control • Risk response control involves executing the risk management processes and the risk management plan to respond to risk events • Risks must be monitored based on defined milestones and decisions made regarding risks and mitigation strategies • Sometimes workarounds or unplanned responses to risk events are needed when there are no contingency plans Using Software to Assist in Project Risk Management • Databases can keep track of risks Many IT departments have issue tracking databases • Spreadsheets can aid in tracking and quantifying risks • More sophisticated risk management software, such as Monte Carlo simulation tools, help in analyzing project risks Figure 11-5 Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Project Schedule Figure 11-6 Sample Monte Carlo Simulations Results for Project Costs Results of Good Project Risk Management • Unlike crisis management, good project risk management often goes unnoticed • Well-run projects appear to be almost effortless, but a lot of work goes into running a project well • Project managers should strive to make their jobs look easy to reflect the results of well-run projects ... risk management at all Table 11- 1 Project Management Maturity by Industry Group and Knowledge Area What is Risk? • A dictionary definition of risk is “the possibility of loss or injury” • Project. .. life of a project and in the best interests of meeting project objectives • Risk management is often overlooked on projects, but it can help improve project success by helping select good projects,... Describe how software can assist in project risk management • Explain the results of good project risk management The Importance of Project Risk Management • Project risk management is the art and science