Rate of Return Analysis Lecture No 23 Chapter Contemporary Engineering Economics Copyright © 2016 Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park Copyright © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved Chapter Opening Story - Investing in Wal-Mart Stock • In October 1,1970, when Wal-Mart Stores, Inc went public, an investment of 100 shares cost $1,650 • That investment would have been worth $15,384,576 on September 30, 2014, after nine times stock splits for for What would be the rate of return on this investment? Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park • WMT Split History Table • Date Ratio • 08/25/1975 for • 12/17/1980 for • 07/12/1982 for • 07/11/1983 for • 10/07/1985 for • 07/13/1987 for • 07/09/1990 for • 02/26/1993 for 04/20/1999 for Copyright â 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved Rate of Return What it is: Interest earned on your invested capital, or commonly known as internal rate of return (IRR) A Simple Example: The interest earned on your savings account is the rate of return on your deposits Investopediađ says: IRRs can also be compared against prevailing rates of return in the securities market If a firm can't find any projects with IRRs greater than the returns that can be generated in the financial markets, it may simply choose to invest its retained earnings in the market Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park Copyright © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved Wal-Mart Investment Problem • Given: • P = $1,650 • F = $15,384576 • N = 44 years • Find: i • Formula to Use • F = P(1 + i)N • $15,384,576 = $1,650(1 + i)44 • i = 23.09% Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park • Cash Flow Diagram $15,384,576 1970 2014 $1,650 Copyright © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved How Good Was the Wal-Mart Investment and What Can It Be Compared with? If you took out $1,650 from your savings account and invested in Wal-Mart stock, you could have • $15,384,576 • Or the equivalent to earning 23.09% interest each year on your savings account over 44 years Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park If you did not invest $1,650 in Wal-Mart stock, what could you use your money for? • If the best you could was to leave the money in a savings account to earn 6% interest over 44 years, you would have $21,426 • What is the meaning of 6% interest? This will be your opportunity cost rate or minimum return required for any investment Copyright © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved Is This a Good Investment? In 1970, as long as you could earn more than a 6% interest in another investment opportunity, you would take that investment Therefore, that 6% is viewed as a minimum attractive rate of return (or required rate of return) This is the interest rate commonly used in NPW analysis So to see if the proposed investment is a good one, you adopt the following decision rule: ROR (23.09%) > MARR(6%) Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park Copyright © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved Why is ROR measure so popular? This project will bring in a 15% rate of return on the investment This project will result in a net surplus of $10,000 in NPW Which statement is easier to understand? Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park Copyright © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved Definition 1: Interest Earned on Loan Balance • Rate of return (ROR) is defined as the interest rate earned on the unpaid (outstanding) balance of an installment loan • Example: A bank lends $10,000 and receives an annual repayment of $4,021 over years The bank is said to earn a return of 10% on its loan of $10,000 Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park Copyright © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved Loan Balance Calculation: A = $10,000 (A/P, 10%, 3) = $4,021 n Unpaid Loan Return on Balance at Unpaid Beginning of Year Balance (10%) $0 -$10,000 -$6,979 -$3,656 $0 -$1,000 -$698 -$366 Payment Received from Borrower Unpaid Loan Balance at End of Year -$10,000 +$4,021 +$4,021 +$4,021 -$10,000 -$6,979 -$3,656 $0 A return of 10% on the amount still outstanding at the beginning of each year Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park Copyright © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved Definition 2: Break-Even Interest Rate • Rate of return (ROR) is the break-even interest rate, i*, which equates the present worth of a project’s cash outflows to the present worth of its cash inflows • Mathematical PW (i * ) PW (i * )cash inflows PW (i * )cash outflows Relation: 0 • Example: PW(10%) 10,000 $4,021(P/ A,10%,3) Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park Copyright © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved Definition 3: Return on Invested Capital: Internal Rate of Return • The internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate earned on the unrecovered project balance of the investment such that when the project terminates, the unrecovered project balance will be zero • Example: A company invests $10,000 in a computer system, which results in equivalent annual labor savings of $4,021 over years The company is said to earn a return ofCopyright 10% on its Contemporary Engineering Economics, edition © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc Park All Rights Reserved investment of $10,000 th Return on Invested Capital • The firm earns a 10% rate of return on funds that remain internally invested in the project Since the return is internal to the project, we call it internal rate of return Contemporary Engineering Economics, th edition Park Copyright © 2016 by Pearson Education, Inc All Rights Reserved ... Reserved Definition 3: Return on Invested Capital: Internal Rate of Return • The internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate earned on the unrecovered project balance of the investment such... 2: Break-Even Interest Rate • Rate of return (ROR) is the break-even interest rate, i*, which equates the present worth of a project’s cash outflows to the present worth of its cash inflows •... investment Therefore, that 6% is viewed as a minimum attractive rate of return (or required rate of return) This is the interest rate commonly used in NPW analysis So to see if the proposed