Incremental Capital Output Rate(ICOR)

MMMMThis page intentionally left blank The Politics of Moral CapitalIt is often said that politics is an amoral realm of power and interest inwhich moral judgment is irrelevant. In this book, by contrast, John Kaneargues that people’s positive moral judgments of political actors andinstitutions provide leaders with an important resource, which hechristens ‘‘moral capital.’’ Negative judgments cause a loss of moralcapital which jeopardizes legitimacy and political survival. Studies ofseveral historical and contemporary leaders – Lincoln, de Gaulle, Man-dela, Aung San Suu Kyi – illustrate the signiWcance of moral capital forpolitical legitimation, mobilizing support, and the creation of strategicopportunities. In the book’s Wnal section, Kane applies his arguments tothe American presidency from Kennedy to Clinton. He argues that amoral crisis has aZicted the nation at its mythical heart and has beenrefracted through and enacted within its central institutions, eroding themoral capital of government and people and undermining the nation’smorale.john kane is the Head of the School of Politics and Public Policy atGriYth University, Queensland. He has published articles in such jour-nals as Political Theory, NOMOS and Telos, and is also co-editor ofRethinking Australian Citizenship (2000). Contemporary Political TheorySeries EditorIan ShapiroEditorial BoardRussell Hardin Stephen Holmes JeVrey IsaacJohn Keane Elizabeth Kiss Susan OkinPhillipe Van Parijs Philip PettitAs the twenty-Wrst century begins, major new political challenges have arisen atthe same time as some of the most enduring dilemmas of political associationremain unresolved. The collapse of communism and the end of the Cold WarreXect a victory for democratic and liberal values, yet in many of the Westerncountries that nurtured those values there are severe problems of urban decay,class and racial conXict, and failing political legitimacy. Enduring global injusticeand inequality seem compounded by environmental problems, disease, the op-pression of women, racial, ethnic and religious minorities, and the relentlessgrowth of the world’s population. In such circumstances, the need for creativethinking about the fundamentals of human political association is manifest. Thisnew series in contemporary political theory is needed to foster such systematicnormative reXection.The series proceeds in the belief that the time is ripe for a reassertion of theimportance of problem-driven political theory. It is concerned, that is, with worksthat are motivated by the impulse to understand, think critically about, andaddress the problems in the world, rather than issues that are thrown up primarilyin academic debate. Books in the series may be interdisciplinary in character,ranging over issues conventionally dealt with in philosophy, law, history and thehuman sciences. The range of materials and the methods of proceeding should bedictated by the problem at hand, not the conventional debates or disciplinarydivisions of academia.Other books in the seriesIan Shapiro and Casiano Hacker-Cordo´ n (eds.)Democracy’s ValueIan Shapiro and Casiano Hacker-Cordo´ n (eds.)Democracy’s EdgesBrooke A. AckerlyPolitical Theory and Feminist Social CriticismClarissa Rile HaywardDe-Facing Power The Politics of Moral CapitalJohn Kane          The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom  The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, AustraliaRuiz de Alarcón 13, 28014 Madrid, SpainDock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africahttp://www.cambridge.orgFirst published in printed format ISBN 0-521-66336-9 hardbackISBN 0-521-66357-1 paperbackISBN 0-511-03398-2 eBookJohn Kane 20042001(Adobe Reader)© For Kay A man has only one death. That death may be as weighty as MountT’ai or it may be as light as a Incremental Capital - Output Rate(ICOR) Incremental Capital - Output Rate(ICOR) Bởi: Wiki Pedia ICOR số cho biết muốn có thêm đơn vị sản lượng thời kỳ định cần phải bỏ thêm đơn vị vốn đầu tư kỳ Đây tập hợp chữ đầu cụm từ tiếng Anh Incremental Capital - Output Rate Trong tiếng Việt, ICOR gọi hệ số sử dụng vốn, hay hệ số đầu tư tăng trưởng, hay tỷ lệ vốn sản lượng tăng thêm, v.v Cách tính ICOR tính công thức sau: ICOR = (Kt-Kt-1) / (Yt-Yt-1) K vốn, Y sản lượng, t kỳ báo cáo, t-1 kỳ trước Cần lưu ý gia tăng sản lượng nhờ nhiều nhân tố nhờ gia tăng vốn đầu tư Chính thế, việc tính ICOR thường giả định: • Mọi nhân tố khác không thay đổi; • Chỉ có gia tăng vốn dẫn tới gia tăng sản lượng Tuy công thức tính ICOR đơn giản, song việc đem so sánh kết tính gây nhiều tranh cãi số lý sau: • Cách xác định vốn sản lượng người/tổ chức tính toán không thống • Các giả định nói không thỏa mãn Sử dụng ICOR kế hoạch hóa kinh tế ICOR giúp nhà lập kế hoạch tăng trưởng kinh tế xác định xem để kinh tế kỳ tăng 1% so với kỳ trước cần tăng vốn đầu tư kỳ lên phần trăm so 1/2 Incremental Capital - Output Rate(ICOR) với kỳ trước Tuy nhiên cần thiết phải thỏa mãn giả thiết tính toán ICOR, người ta sử dụng hệ số vào kế hoạch hóa kinh tế ngắn hạn (quý, nửa năm năm) Sử dụng ICOR so sánh So sánh vai trò vốn với nhân tố tăng trưởng khác ICOR cho biết đồng vốn đầu tư tạo đồng sản lượng Qua người ta thấy vốn đầu tư so với nhân tố tăng trưởng khác có ý nghĩa tăng trưởng sản lượng ICOR thấp chứng tỏ vốn đầu tư quan trọng Trong đó, ICOR cao hàm ý vai trò nhân tố tăng trưởng khác công nghệ chẳng hạn tăng vai trò tăng trưởng So sánh hiệu sử dụng vốn Một cách sử dụng ICOR để so sánh khác so sánh hiệu sử dụng vốn (hay hiệu đầu tư) thời kỳ kinh tế Hệ số ICOR cao chứng tỏ thời kỳ kinh tế sử dụng vốn Tuy nhiên cách so sánh thường xuyên vi phạm giả thiết thời kỳ dài khác thay đổi công nghệ hay tỷ lệ kết hợp vốn lao động giống Điều với kinh tế khác 2/2 1 FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCE AND GROWTH Philip Arestis University of Cambridge CEPP WORKING PAPER NO. 05/05 June 2005 Department of Land Economy 19 Silver Street Cambridge CB3 9EP Telephone: 01223 337147 UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE Centre for Economic and Public Policy 2 Introduction1 The relationship between financial development and economic growth has received a great deal of attention throughout the modern history of economics. Its roots can be traced in Lydia of Asia Minor where the first money was in evidence. The first signs of public debate, however, on the relationship between finance and growth, and indeed on experiments with free banking, can be located in Rome in the year 33 AD. In that year there was probably the first classic case of public panic and run on the banks. The Romans debated intensely and fiercely at that time the possibility of placing a hitherto free banking system under the control of the government. Since then, of course, a great number of economists have dealt with the issue. An early and intellectual development came from Bagehot (1873), in his classic Lombard Street, where he emphasised the critical importance of the banking system in economic growth and highlighted circumstances when banks could actively spur innovation and future growth by identifying and funding productive investments. The work of Schumpeter (1911) should also be mentioned. He argued that financial services are paramount in promoting economic growth. In this view production requires credit to materialise, and one "can only become an entrepreneur by previously becoming a debtor .What [the entrepreneur] first wants is credit. Before he requires any goods whatever, he requires purchasing power. He is the typical debtor in capitalist society" (p. 102). In this process, the banker is the key agent. Schumpeter (1911) is very explicit on this score: "The banker, therefore, is not so much primarily the middleman in the commodity `purchasing power' as a producer of this commodity . He is the ephor of the exchange economy" (p. 74). Keynes (1930), in his A Treatise on Money, also argued for the importance of the banking sector in economic growth. He suggested that bank credit "is the pavement along which production travels, and the bankers if they knew their duty, would provide the transport facilities to just the extent that is required in order that the productive powers of the community can be employed at their full capacity" (II, p. 220). In the same spirit Robinson (1952) argued that financial development follows growth, and articulated this causality argument by suggesting that "where enterprise leads finance follows" (p. 86). Both, however, recognized this as a function of current institutional structure, which is not necessarily given. In fact, Keynes (1936) later supported an alternative structure that included direct government control of investment. Although growth may be constrained by credit creation in less developed financial systems, in more sophisticated systems finance is viewed as endogenous responding to demand requirements. This line of The Volatility of Capital Flows in South Africa: Some Empirical Observations By Michael Nowak African Department International Monetary Fund Prepared for BER Conference, Johannesburg, June 1, 2001 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the International Monetary Fund. Research assistance was provided by Ms. Pamela Mjandana and Mr. Nehrunaman Pillay. - 2 - The Volatility of Capital Flows in South Africa: Some Empirical Observations I. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS In the past several years, South Africa has taken a number of steps, such as budget-deficit reduction and adoption of a more flexible exchange rate regime, that have helped reduce its vulnerability to adverse external shocks. In addition, the SARB has made considerable strides in reducing the net open forward position (NOFP), which has represented a major source of external vulnerability, has been lowered significantly. The NOFP, however, remains relatively large. As such, it continues to represent a source of concern to investors that is reflected in South Africa’s sovereign risk spreads. The SARB has, therefore, expressed its commitment to achieving further reductions. This note examines alternative options available to the SARB for reducing the NOFP. On the basis of some preliminary statistical findings, it argues that: ?? Regular pre-announced foreign exchange purchases may help bring about up-front cuts in borrowing spreads, but could place undue pressure on the rand, the external current account, and the real economy. ?? Care should be taken in targeting capital inflows, such as FDI, that may be perceived as stable; while such flows may indeed be less volatile than other capital flows, they still tend to show little persistence over time. However, in the case of certain large one-off inflows of FDI, such as privatization proceeds, there may be a strong basis to suppose that the inflows will not be reversed. It makes sense, therefore, to purchase some or most of these inflows. ?? The evidence tentatively suggests that incoming FDI may be partially offset by long-term capital outflows, possibly reflecting cover operations by investors. However, when the picture is extended to include all other capital flows, there is no significant offset. ?? Additional external borrowing may be appropriate in modest amounts. II. EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY AND BORROWING SPREADS Over the course of the past several years, macroeconomic policies in South Africa have helped reduce the vulnerability of the economy to adverse external shocks and contagion from other emerging markets. The public finances have been brought firmly under control, an inflation-targeting regime is now in place, and the exchange rate has been allowed to float with a significant gain in external competitiveness. The banking system is strong and healthy. In addition, South Africa’s medium- and long-term external debt remains low in comparison with other emerging market economies (Table 1). And the SARB’s net open forward position - 3 - (NOFP), which is a measure of its short-term foreign currency exposure, has 1International Capital Flows and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Asia Pacific Region + Soyoung Kim* University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Korea University Sunghyun H. Kim** Tufts University Yunjong Wang*** SK Research Institute Abstract This paper documents evidence of business cycle synchronization in selected Asia Pacific countries in the 1990s. We explain business cycle synchronization by the channel of international capital flows. Using the VAR method, we find that most Asian countries experience boom-bust cycles following capital inflows, where the boom in output is mostly driven by consumption and investment. Empirical evidence shows that capital flows in the region are highly correlated, which supports the conclusion that capital market liberalization has contributed to business cycle synchronization in Asia. We also find that business cycles in the Asian crisis countries are highly synchronized with those in Japan. JEL Classification: F02, F36, F41 Key words: business cycle synchronization, capital flows, boom-bust cycles, financial integration. + We are grateful to Gordon de Brouwer, Barry Eichengreen, Takeo Hoshi, Takatoshi Ito, Eiji Ogawa, and Yung Chul Park for their helpful comments and suggestions. This research was kindly supported by a Ford Foundation grant. * Department of Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, DKH, 225b, 1407 W. Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801. ** Corresponding Author. Department of Economics, Tufts University, Medford MA 02155. Tel: 617-627-3662, Fax: 617-627-3917, E-mail: Sunghyun.Kim@tufts.edu. *** SK Research Institute, 14th Floor, Seoul Finance Center, 84 Taepyungro 1-ga, Seoul 100-101, Korea. 21. Introduction Over the past decade, a number of Asia Pacific countries have liberalized their financial markets to foreign capital by reducing restrictions on inward and outward capital flows. Increased capital flows due to financial integration can generate substantial effects on business cycles. Large capital inflows following financial market liberalization can generate an initial surge in investment and asset price bubbles followed by capital outflows and recession, the so-called boom-bust cycles. In worst cases, the boom-bust cycles can end with a sudden reversal of capital flows and financial crises.1 On the other hand, by allowing domestic residents to engage in international financial asset transactions, financial market opening can reduce the volatility of some macroeconomic variables such as consumption through risk-sharing.2 What are the macroeconomic effects of capital flows, in particular on business cycle fluctuations? Do business cycles become less volatile and more synchronized across countries as the degree of financial integration increases? Understanding the business cycle implications of capital flows is important as it can also reveal a great deal about the welfare implications of financial market liberalization policies as well as international monetary arrangements. This paper focuses on the effects of capital flows due to financial market liberalization on business cycles, The Institute of International Finance, Inc. Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies Page 1 September 24, 2005 Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies © 2005. The Institute of International Finance, Inc. All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be neither reproduced nor distributed in whole or in part outside the membership without the prior written approval of the Institute of International Finance, Inc. September 24, 2005 Overview The strong recovery in net private capital flows to emerging markets that began in 2003 has continued this year. Although a moderation in the pace of flows is anticipated in the next several quarters, the overall level envisaged for 2006 remains relatively elevated. Downside risks have increased, however, in the face of rising concerns and unease about a potentially less hospitable global economic environment going forward. Private flows are projected to reach a record high $345 billion this year before slowing to $318 billion in 2006 (Table 1, Chart 1). This year’s expected flows surpass the previous record of $323 billion reached in 1996 prior to the Asian crisis. The continued robustness in flows is being supported by a further pickup in direct investment and a record pace of bond issuance as sovereign and private borrowers endeavor to stay ahead of the curve before the tightening policy interest rate cycle starts to hit bond markets visibly. With many debtors having already taken the opportunity to pre-finance obligations due in 2006, the current pace of bond issuance is unlikely to be sustained next year, contributing to an overall slowdown in private capital flows to emerging markets. This forecasted slowdown could become more pronounced if downside risks from a further jump in oil prices, unanticipated policy slippage or other problems in a major emerging market economy, or a sudden shift in investor risk aversion stemming, inter alia, from concerns over global imbalances or the fragility of global growth were to materialize. The strong private capital flows to emerging markets in 2005 has occurred against a backdrop of strong global economic expansion, which has been supported by strong corporate profitability and buoyant housing markets in the United States and elsewhere. The measured but sustained monetary tightening in the United States has yet to dampen growth, as bond yields have tended to drift down. Neither have sharply higher oil prices begun to visibly affect the forward momentum of global activity, although this could now change in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Low yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and a flat yield curve have pushed investors to purchase lower rated credits, compressing credit spreads, including those on emerging market bonds. Despite the historically high price of emerging market assets, investor demand remains strong, reflecting both the search for yield and the improving fundamentals in many key countries. Most of these countries have experienced robust growth with relatively little inflation while accumulating substantial international reserves as a result of current account surpluses and large capital inflows. Growing confidence on the part of investors in the policy performance of some of the key emerging market Table 1Emerging Market Economies' External Financing(billions of U.S. dollars)2003 2004 2005f 2006fCurrent account balance 118.0151.9 194.4 180.7External financing, net: .. .Incremental Capital - Output Rate(ICOR) với kỳ trước Tuy nhiên cần thiết phải thỏa mãn giả thiết tính toán ICOR,